The Irrawaddy Magazine |
- Burma’s Exiles Want Clear Rules for Return
- Burma Retains Least-Developed Country Designation
- Naga Move to Expand Self-Administered Zone
- NLD to Lead ‘Whole Year’ Celebration of Aung San’s 100th Birthday
- Election Commission Warns IRI Over Campaign Training to NLD
- Thein Sein Visit to Native Village Highlights Humble Beginnings
- ‘Protection Laws’ Submitted to Burma’s Parliament
- Economists Say Political Stability Key to Growth
- Women Garment Workers Join Forces Amid Lure of City Jobs
- Taiwan, Hong Kong a Challenge for China
- Thai Banks Chase Regional Dreams as Domestic Lending Boom Fades
- India Takes Step Toward Resolving Border Dispute With Bangladesh
- China Shows a Softer Side
| Burma’s Exiles Want Clear Rules for Return Posted: 02 Dec 2014 04:50 AM PST  Burmese nationals hold up their passports outside the embassy of Burma in Singapore April 27, 2008. (Photo: Reuters) Shortly after assuming office, President Thein Sein made one of his most symbolic promises to date: On Aug. 17, 2011, he announced that the country would welcome the return of exiles that fled Burma throughout decades of brutal military dictatorship. The announcement was greeted with skepticism; at the time, there were still more than 2,000 prisoners of conscience in Burma, and the government's commitment to reform was anything but certain. More than three years later, many of those exiles are still reluctant to return, while others said that they face excessive and perhaps discriminatory bureaucratic hurdles. No one knows exactly how many people have fled Burma since 1988, when a crackdown on a popular uprising caused a sudden spike in departures. According to the UN's refugee agency, UNHCR, there are an estimated 1 million refugees and other persons of concern from Burma who either fled conflict or sought political asylum in other countries. After 1988, Burma's notorious military intelligence agency created an epic blacklist, and some activists were handed sentences as stern as death for their anti-junta agitating. Many of Burma's pro-democracy activists sought refuge in other countries. Dissidents who registered with UNHCR would receive travel documents and temporary residency status. After a few years, many of them were granted citizenship and issued passports from their host countries. Burma's 1982 Citizenship Law does not allow dual citizenship, which poses problems for those exiles wishing to take Thein Sein at his word. Those holding foreign passports need a visa to return to Burma, which requires approval from three separate government ministries: Home Affairs, Foreign Affairs and Immigration. Those who wish to reinstate their citizenship face other difficulties, which some explained quite simply: The Burmese government has not yet established an indiscriminate protocol for dealing with their return. "There's no policy set for this issue," explained Aung Myo Min, the director of an NGO called Equality Myanmar. Aung Myo Min left Burma for Thailand in 1990, where he has since become a renowned activist who has dedicated years to promoting human rights awareness and gender equality via a network of activists across the country. He said that while he hasn't had much difficulty returning, several of his peers have been less lucky. One of them is Khin Ohmar, the founder and director of a human rights network called Burma Partnership. Khin Ohmar left Burma after the 1988 crackdown. She was resettled in the United States and was later granted citizenship. After Thein Sein invited exiles to return, she did what many others did: She applied for a social visit visa, which grants a longer stay than most other permits. The social visit visa was primarily created to allow foreign passport holders to spend time with family members in Burma. Many exiles have traveled between their host country and Burma on such permits several times in recent years. According to Khin Ohmar, it's never a problem… until it's a problem. She recently told The Irrawaddy that the Burmese Embassy has delayed processing her most recent application pending "approval from Naypyidaw." The reason this is so concerning, several prominent exiles said, is that it seems to be happening more and more often. In November, Mun Awng, a revered singer and a Norwegian passport holder, was also denied a visa by the embassy in Bangkok, which offered a similar explanation. "I submitted [Mun Awng's visa application] to Naypyidaw," said Burma's Ambassador to Thailand Win Maung, speaking to The Irrawaddy by phone on Monday, "but he [Mun Awng] hasn't been back or contacted us [since then]." Win Maung added that applicants should "understand the procedures" when seeking a permit, which some applicants said was unrealistic given the lack of clear protocol and the arbitrary nature of approval. The ambassador also confirmed to The Irrawaddy that the hold-up in Mun Awng's application was due to his participation in a protest against Thein Sein when he visited Norway in 2013, an admission that supports suspicions that exiles are only welcome under certain conditions. The list of those denied re-entry is longer than one might expect. Cho Seint, an exiled poet who is also a Norwegian passport holder, was denied a visa earlier this year. Moe Thee Zun, a student leader during the 1988 popular uprising against the military regime, was denied entry in June despite having been allowed to enter Burma twice since the reform process began. He was among the most dubious returnees, after being sentenced to death while in exile because his political activity was found to incite unrest. Former student activist and founder of the independent journal Sun Ray, Moe Hein,was similarly expelled earlier this year with little legal explanation. "The government should outline specific regulations and procedures for dealing with visa requests submitted by former activists who sought asylum in foreign countries," said Bo Kyi, secretary of the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP). The organization, which keeps a running roster of Burma's prisoners of conscience and assists both detainees and their families, operated out of Thailand for the past 14 years. Bo Kyi is now a member of the government-established Political Prisoners Scrutiny Committee, and even he has concerns about renewing his entry permit because the authorities have been found to selectively enforce technicalities of visa rules. Social visit visas, for example, have been used by returning foreign passport holders because there is no other extended-stay option for exiles. If an exile no longer has any living relatives in Burma, however, they are ineligible for that particular permit. One possible solution for returnees is a system of permanent residency permits, which could be introduced by the end of this year, according to a senior immigration official who spoke to The Irrawaddy on condition of anonymity in November. The system would offer renewable five-year residency permits for foreigners and former citizens. While permanent residency would offer exiles permission to live in their country of origin, it wouldn't solve one of the most frustrating problems for returnees: political exclusion of some of the country's most seasoned and educated political activists and intellectuals. The law requires that only citizens who have lived in Burma for 10 consecutive years are eligible for seats in the nation's Parliament. Many returnees who do wish to reinstate their citizenship face even further obstacles, Bo Kyi said. He is among the some 100 exiles who have applied for new citizenship documents since the invitation to return was extended in 2011, but he is still waiting on answers.o Kyi said that the lack of a comprehensive policy gives the government leeway to pick and choose who has mobility and power. "Some ethnic leaders," he said, "are issued a Burmese passport and can travel to foreign countries, while people like us have applied for citizenship and haven't had any response." The post Burma's Exiles Want Clear Rules for Return appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine. | |
| Burma Retains Least-Developed Country Designation Posted: 02 Dec 2014 04:31 AM PST  Burma is likely to remain on the United Nations list of least-developed countries for some time to come. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) announced on Monday that Burma will remain on its list of least-developed countries, frustrating official efforts to shed the ignominious title as soon as next year. Igor Bosc, senior program advisor of UNCTAD, told The Irrawaddy that Burma would need more fundamental reform to emerge from the least-developed country list. "In order to improve across all economic benchmarks and deliver benefits for people, more fundamental strategic change is needed," he said. "It will take some time but it is possible for Burma to graduate [from least-developed country status]." There remain significant hurdles to Burma's graduation from least-developed country status, 27 years after the country officially accepted the designation in the wake of economic stagnation, abortive reforms to the agricultural sector and a disastrous demonetization policy. Figures from the UNCTAD report on least developed countries for 2014 conclude that Burma must substantially raise its gross national income per capita or reduce the vulnerability of its populace to economic shocks to graduate from the designation. There are currently 48 countries on the least-developed country list, including Burma's regional neighbors Bangladesh, Cambodia, Laos, Bhutan, Nepal and Timor-Leste. Burma's gross national income per capita was US$994 in 2014, the lowest in the region after Cambodia and Bangladesh. Vice President Nyan Tun has been tasked with expediting Burma's graduation from its least-developed country designation. According to a report in the state-owned Global New Light of Myanmar on Nov. 21, Nyan Tun told a meeting that government committees were working in partnership with the United Nations and international NGOs to lift the country out of least-developed status in 2015. Only four countries have graduated from least-developed status since the designation came into use in 1971, including Botswana, Cape Verde, the Maldives and Samoa. Once a country is identified as a candidate to graduate from least-developed country status, the United Nations typically grants a three-year grace period before graduation takes effect. Despite Burma's hopes to move away from least-developed country status in 2015, the UNCTAD report has identified Angola and Kiribati as the most likely candidates for graduation next year. Dr. Maung Maung Lay, vice president of Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry, told The Irrawaddy that Burma is on the road to economic development but will retain the least-developed country designation for the foreseeable future. "The time between when we started efforts to come out of the least-developed countries list and when we actually come out will be at least 10 years," he said. "We cannot come out immediately and we have to move gradually." The post Burma Retains Least-Developed Country Designation appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine. | |
| Naga Move to Expand Self-Administered Zone Posted: 02 Dec 2014 04:25 AM PST  Naga tribesmen stand in line at their new year festival. (Photo: The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — Ethnic Naga leaders will attempt to absorb two more townships into the minority group's self-administered zone, deciding to undertake the expansion push at a three-day conference in Khamti, Sagaing Division. Like the current self-administered zone, Khamti and Homemalin townships are home to significant ethnic Naga populations. According to historical records presented by researchers at the conference, those two townships were included in the former Naga Hills District, which was renamed by Gen. Ne Win's Burma Socialist Programme Party government in the late 1970s. The Naga Self-Administered Zone is delineated in the 2008 Constitution, grouping Leshi, Lahe and Namyun townships in Sagaing Division. "The three townships currently in the self-administrated zone were grouped by the government through the 2008 Constitution. It was formed just because we have enough population to be," said Shu Maung, secretary of the Naga Conference Working Committee, who claimed that Khamti and Homemalin townships were not included in the initial delineation because the three other townships had reached a minimum threshold to qualify for self-administered status. Burma's Constitution lays out a lengthy procedure for redrawing territorial boundaries. A referendum must first win the approval of more than 50 percent of those residing within the concerned area. The next step would see the proposal go before the Sagaing Division representatives in the Union Parliament for a vote. At the conference, which concluded on Sunday, participants also decided to establish a Naga National Affairs Council that will include 49 members from all over the Naga region in northwestern Burma. The council will take the lead in the campaign to expand the Naga Self-Administered Zone. The legacy of more than five decades of centralization and top-down governance had created a "huge barrier" to progress in achieving a functional autonomous government, according to Ro San Kyu, the head of the Naga Self-Administered Zone "The Union government is still exerting influence on us a lot. We started using a bottom-up approach only recently [in 2008]. How can such a change be made in just a few years?" he said. "But we are trying." The 2008 Constitution establishes a Union government comprised of 14 state and divisional governments. Seven of these are nominally for the country's major ethnic minority groups: Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni, Mon, Arakan and Shan. Currently, there are five self-administered zones and one self-administered division. The Naga Self-Administered Zone's official name was announced by decree on Aug. 20, 2010. Its administrative seat is the town of Lahe. The post Naga Move to Expand Self-Administered Zone appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine. | |
| NLD to Lead ‘Whole Year’ Celebration of Aung San’s 100th Birthday Posted: 02 Dec 2014 03:41 AM PST  Gen. Aung San, considered the father of Burma's independence, was assassinated on July 19, 1947. (Photo: public domain) RANGOON — The National League for Democracy (NLD) is gearing up for "a whole year" of celebrations to commemorate Gen. Aung San's 100th birthday, the party's members told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday. The festivities will officially kick off on Feb. 13 next year, 100 years to the date that the general was born in Nat Mauk, Magwe Division, in 1915. The martyred Aung San was a Burmese revolutionary and nationalist, founder of the modern Burma Army, and considered to be the metaphorical father of modern-day Burma, as well as being the actual father of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who serves as chairman of the NLD. The 32-year-old independence leader was assassinated on July 19, 1947, in Rangoon's Secretariat building. Win Htein, an NLD central executive committee member, said the party itself would celebrate Aung San's birthday in advance of next year, beginning this month. "We're going to celebrate with performances and commemorations until the second week of February. Then we will work with other organizations to celebrate for the whole of next year," he said. Celebrations will include contests in poetry and photography, as well as public speaking events in the three months leading up to Feb. 13. "Some organizations will be celebrating the birthday township by township, as well as in Nat Mauk, the bogyoke's hometown in Magwe Division," he said, referring to Aung San by the Burmese word for general. "There will be big celebrations before and after February 13." The party's leader Suu Kyi is expected to travel to Nat Mauk to celebrate her father's centenary on Feb. 13. Aung San was born to Daw Suu and the lawyer U Pha. "There will be a big celebration in Nat Mauk such as a nyeint pwe, zat pwe [traditional Burmese dances] and other performance shows will be included for the whole week," Win Htein said. The independence hero Aung San and seven of his colleagues were assassinated in 1947, shortly before the country gained independence from Britain. Suu Kyi—for decades Burma's iconic pro-democracy leader—was just 2 years old when her father was killed in a plot masterminded by his political rival U Saw. The NLD chairwoman still lives in the colonial-era mansion on the shores of Inya Lake where she spent most of her childhood. The Aung San commemorations are hardly the only big event on the NLD's calendar next year. Burma's largest opposition party is also preparing to contest national elections in late 2015 that will mark the first time the party has fielded candidates in a general election in more than 20 years. Aung San, almost universally revered in Burma, remains a potent political symbol in the country. The former military junta phased out pictures of the general on the country's banknotes after a pro-democracy uprising in 1988 was crushed with brutal force. Maung Maung Oo, an NLD member in Rangoon's Insein Township, said that some groups would campaign to raise awareness in the former capital about Aung San's milestone birthday next year. "Now Pan Ye Lan, a local fundraising group, is campaigning with the NLD for bogyoke's birthday, starting from Dec. 1, so it will be eight days total to campaign in four districts in Rangoon Division," he said. He added that the NLD was taking the lead in organizing events for Aung San's birthday because of the party chairwoman's familial link to the general. "We will have to do more than others for our bogyoke's birthday," he said. The post NLD to Lead 'Whole Year' Celebration of Aung San's 100th Birthday appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine. | |
| Election Commission Warns IRI Over Campaign Training to NLD Posted: 02 Dec 2014 03:30 AM PST  Ballots being counted at a polling station in Rangoon during 2010 general election. (Photo: Reuters) RANGOON — Burma's Union Election Commission (UEC) said it has warned the US-based International Republican Institute (IRI) over its recent election campaign training in Irrawaddy Division's Pyapon District. Deputy Commission Chairman Hla Maung said IRI had provided campaign training on Nov. 17 exclusively to National League for Democracy (NLD) members in Pyapon District, adding that the institute had also failed to properly inform the commission of its activities. He said both these alleged actions by IRI had violated the commission's rules regarding foreign support for election-related activities in Burma. "Foreign organizations need to seek prior approval of the UEC if they are to provide training to a political party," he told The Irrawaddy, adding that, "We have notified [IRI] that [they] can only provide training to political parties collectively." IRI is partially-funded by the US House of Representatives, but it is aligned with the center-right views of the Republican Party. The institute implements democratization programs that include supporting political parties ahead of elections, as well as electoral reform and election monitoring. IRI could not immediately be reached for comment about the allegations made by the election commission. Hla Maung said the Political Parties Registration Law requires Burmese parties to notify the commission of any in-house or external training, and he claimed that the NLD had failed to properly inform the commission about the IRI training event. He warned that the Constitution's Article 407 (c) forbids any party from "directly and indirectly receiving and expending expend financial, material and other assistance from a foreign government, a religious association, other association or a person from a foreign country." Article 408 states a party's license can be revoked when it violates 407(c). "We are not targeting the NLD. We are just acting in line with the Constitution," he added. Thet Tin, vice chairman of the NLD in Pyapon District, said he had not heard of the allegations made by the election commission, but he denied that the IRI training event had been arranged exclusively for the NLD. "The training was not given in our party office, but given only on 17 Nov at the Chinese Club in Pyapon. Most of the trainees are from our party, but other parties were also invited," he said. Win Myint, a NLD Lower House lawmaker who represents Pathein constituency in Irrawaddy Division, said all parties, including the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party, had been invited to the IRI training, but the other parties did not send any representatives. "It is not that IRI provided training to NLD alone and in Pyapon alone. It invited all parties to the training. It was up to them whether or not to attend the training. The fact that IRI provided training does not infringe on the Political Parties Registration Law," he said. Win Myint, who is also a NLD Central Executive Committee member, said the training intended to help all parties better understand democratic election systems, adding that he believed that the IRI training did not amount to the NLD receiving assistance from a foreign organization. In late 2015, Burma is scheduled to hold its first free and fair democratic elections after decades of direct military rule. The NLD of popular opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is the main challenger for the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), a political party filled with ex-junta members. The post Election Commission Warns IRI Over Campaign Training to NLD appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine. | |
| Thein Sein Visit to Native Village Highlights Humble Beginnings Posted: 02 Dec 2014 12:43 AM PST  President Thein Sein carries a gold and gem-encrusted top of a spire, known as a sein phu daw in Burmese, on to a gold-leaf covered stupa in his native in Kyone Ku. (Photo: Salai Thant Zin / The Irrawaddy) KYONE KU VILLAGE, Ngapudaw Township — The rice farmers of the small Irrawaddy Delta village of Kyone Ku had to shield themselves from the blowing dust and hold on tight to their little USDP flags last week, as a helicopter touched down and the most famous native of the village arrived. President Thein Sein stepped out and was carried in a motorcade to Thamu Dayan Pagoda, the village monastery, where he took part in a Buddhist donation ceremony to hoist a gold and gem-encrusted top of a spire, known as a sein phu daw in Burmese, on to a gold-leaf covered stupa. It was the first time in many years that Burma's leader had returned to his village, located an eight-hour drive southwest of Rangoon, where he was born in 1942 as the third child of a poor family. The president held no speech, but only met briefly with his older brother Tun Myint and said hello to a few old friends before leaving again. According to Tun Myint, Thein Sein told him: "Take care of your health. Even though I have a pacemaker, I have to go ahead with my responsibilities." The president, who assumed leadership of Burma's first nominally-civilian government in 2011 after decades of direct military rule, was raised here by a father who weaved bamboo baskets and worked as a landless porter at the village's little riverside port. His mother sold mohinga, the well-known Burmese noodle soup, at the port, according to his brother. In his youth, the village could only be reached by waterways and Thein Sein would take a daily boat to Ngapudaw town and later Pathein to complete his high school education. He enrolled in the Burma Army and was admitted to the ninth intake of the famous Defense Services Academy in 1968, where he was trained to become a second lieutenant He rose through the ranks of Burma's consecutive military regimes and held positions as regional commanders, before becoming a prominent member of former Snr-Gen. Than Shwe's of State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) after the purge of former spy chief Gen. Khin Nyunt. From 2007 to March 2011, he served as the prime minister of the junta. He is said to have been hand-picked for the presidency by Than Shwe to implement the supremo's long-planned "roadmap to democracy" following the rigged 2010 elections, reportedly because of his reputation as one of the cleanest regime members. Tun Myint offered his own explanation about his brother's political rise. "He reads when he is free. He shows respect to his superiors and never goes against them. He was brought near Snr-Gen. Than Shwe and Gen. Khin Nyunt, and always listened to them. No matter what he was asked to do, he is never clumsy and he does things calmly and steadily. That's why he has become the president, I think," he said. Kyone Ku village was described by a visiting New York Times journalist in 2012 as having no running water or paved roads, suggesting it had gained no benefits from its links to the president. These days, however, it seems the village is more developed than neighboring villages and its residents enjoy paved roads and lamp posts that light up streets at night, while free electricity is provided to the approximately 400 households by a solar power installation. The surrounding villages have only dirt roads and no power supply. While locals in neighboring Nga Yoke Kaung Sub-township suffer from poor mobile phone network, a GSM antenna towers over Kyone Ku Village. A primary school is properly furnished and the small village even has its own clinic and police post. "Our village has developed thanks to the president. We don't need to pay for electricity as it is provided with solar power. All the roads in our village have been turned into concrete now. It has been more convenient for us as transportation has improved compared to the past," said villager Thet Lwin. It remains unclear how the village managed to leap ahead in terms of government services and on whose instructions it took place. A village administrator could not provide The Irrawaddy with any details on the developments. Despite, the benefits it enjoys, poverty is still rife here and almost half of the village residents have left in order to seek a better income by working abroad. "Around 300 people from our village are working in countries like Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. Some get a good job there and send back money to their families, while some have faced trouble," said Thet Lwin. Family members attest to Thein Sein's reputation as a simple-living man with little interest in garnering private funds through the power of his government positions. Tun Myint said he had suggested that his brother open a business when he was secretary-1 of the SPDC, but Thein Sein reacted by saying that he was only interested in civil service and farming after his retirement. His family gathered few benefits from their famous uncle, he added. "My brother could not support the family. He was a battalion commander when our mother was ill, but we had to sell the half of our land as we had no money to pay for her treatment," Tun Myint said. "He has also not given anything to me, not even a land plot, but he did buy me a phone. He always tells my children not to seek help from him but to act on their own." Thein Sein has been a key figure in Burma's dramatic democratic transition, but critics of his government say that as president he has done little to curb graft. They say his political reforms—in particular the lack of constitutional amendments and continuing threats to rights activists—has been a major disappointment to the Burmese public, civil society groups and the democratic opposition of Aung San Suu Kyi. "Thein Sein has failed to create a clean government as he has articulated he would. He can't fight the corruption by steering himself clear from it—and his cabinet members can't follow his steps," said political commentator Than Win. Thein Sein has also appeared unable to influence the stalled nationwide ceasefire process, which appears to be under military rather than civilian government control. Recurrent outbreaks of deadly anti-Muslim violence, in particular in western Burma's Arakan State, have been one of the most disturbing features of his tenure. Thein Sein has left it unclear if he will seek a second term in office in the 2015 elections, but Parliament Speaker Shwe Mann and chairman of the ruling Union Solidarity Development Party (USDP) has indicated he will be a presidential candidate and could be a rival. Residents of his native village said they would like to see Thein Sein run in next year's elections. "I joined the USDP this year, but we don't understand much about politics. I joined as a manner of support for our villager, the president. I have no other intentions. I would vote for the president's party in 2015," said Thet Lwin. His brother said he would like see Thein Sein retire and lead a more calm life at his advanced age. "I don't want him to do more since he has served the country since he was 18. He is living with a pacemaker. To be frank, I want him to engage in religious service," he said. The post Thein Sein Visit to Native Village Highlights Humble Beginnings appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine. | |
| ‘Protection Laws’ Submitted to Burma’s Parliament Posted: 01 Dec 2014 10:48 PM PST  Buddhist monk Wirathu speaks to the public about the Interfaith Marriage Bill in Sagaing Division on May 5, 2014. (Photo: Wirathu / Facebook) RANGOON — A controversial legislative package commonly known as the "protection of race and religion laws" has been submitted to Burma's legislature and will be up for debate during the next parliamentary session in January 2015. President's Office Director Zaw Htay, also known as Hmuu Zaw, wrote on social media on Monday that the four bills—which include new regulations on religious conversion, interfaith marriage, population control and monogamy—were tabled late last week and drafts are now viewable on the Ministry of Information website. The bills, first proposed by the Association for the Protection of Race and Religion (known in Burmese as Ma Ba Tha), have been controversial from the outset, fielding criticism from women's rights advocates and several of Burma's ethnic and religious minorities. Critics argue that enacting the bills would create unnecessary obstacles to religious freedom, and that the laws would undermine women's ability to make independent choices about their faith, partner and family. A proposed Marriage Bill would require any non-Buddhist man to convert before marrying a Buddhist woman, while the Religious Conversion Bill creates new legal criteria for changing faiths. The conversion policy has received particular scorn from some of Burma's minority faiths, including Christians and Muslims, who have historically been subject to religious persecution by the former military regime. But the legislation has also drawn supporters, most recently in late October, when Buddhist monk U Wirathu helped to organize a demonstration of thousands who marched through the streets of Mandalay demanding that the bills be swiftly implemented. U Wirathu is a key backer of the legislation and a central figure in the Ma Ba Tha. He is also associated with a Buddhist nationalist movement in Burma that is widely perceived anti-Muslim. Buddhist-majority Burma has grappled with ethnic and religious tension for decades, but in recent years the issue has become a fixture of political discourse as inter-communal violence between Buddhists and Muslims broke out in several parts of the country. Hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced and more than 200 have died in a rash of riots beginning in mid-2012 that has overwhelmingly uprooted Muslim communities. The Ma Ba Tha came to prominence after the conflict, premised on preserving Burma's dominant Buddhist identity. The legislation was first proposed in mid-2013. According to Zaw Htay's statement, the Religious Conversion Bill and the Population Bill were submitted to Parliament by the Union Government on Nov. 24th, while the Interfaith Marriage Bill and the Monogamy Bill were submitted by the Union Attorney General on Nov. 26th. While new legislation is typically published in state media for public review before parliamentary debate, only one of the proposed laws, the Religious Conversion Bill, has been published in state newspapers. The remaining three were published on the Ministry of Information website in Burmese language on Dec. 1, 2014. The post 'Protection Laws' Submitted to Burma's Parliament appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine. | |
| Economists Say Political Stability Key to Growth Posted: 01 Dec 2014 10:39 PM PST  An activist holds an upturned alms bowl in a gesture of protest at a rally against Burma's National Education Law on Nov. 14. (Photo: Sai Zaw / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — Economists have pegged the health of Burma's economy to the political environment in the lead up to next year's general election, saying instability or a failure to see reforms through could hamper economic growth in the impoverished Southeast Asian nation. Though the government has frequently touted economic reforms implemented over the last three years, some observers have said that Burma's economy is underperforming. Much of the foreign direct investment hype that surrounded the country's opening in 2011 has failed to translate into concrete deals as prospective investors adopt a wait-and-see approach. Slated for late 2015, the general election and political developments ahead of the poll are expected to have outsized influence on the country's economic fortunes. Aung Ko Ko, an economist and writer, said that while no one could predict where the Burmese economy will be a year from now, a recently proposed six-party dialogue among Burma's political heavyweights would help determine its trajectory. The talks, endorsed unanimously by Parliament last week, would focus on constitutional reform. "The six-party meeting will have consequences for what will happen next year," Aung Ko Ko said. "There are only two outcomes: The economy will downturn or upturn. "It's an important meeting for us," he added. "After the meeting, if the result is good, economic development will increase significantly. If not—if the recent situation holds until the middle of next year—economic development will slow." The proposed roundtable would involve President Thein Sein, National League for Democracy (NLD) party chairwoman Aung San Suu Kyi, the speakers of both houses of Parliament, commander in chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and a representative from an ethnic minority party. However, both the president and Min Aung Hlaing have dismissed the dialogue, with presidential spokesman Ye Htut calling the proposal "impractical." In addition to an ongoing and divisive debate on constitutional reform, a controversial education law and lingering conflict between the Burma Army and a handful of ethnic armed groups have brought protestors to the streets of cities nationwide in recent months, shows of dissent that would have been nearly unthinkable under the former military regime. "Many people have been saying that the FDI is increasing in Burma, but I think that the true state of affairs will play out after the election," Aung Ko Ko said. "Only about US$9 billion in FDI has come into Burma under this government, so most foreign investors are still watching the political situation before investing here," he said. The Myanmar Investment Commission estimated earlier this year that FDI would hit US$4-5 billion in the 2014-15 budget year. By the end of September, Burma had already seen almost $4.09 billion in foreign investment. The Myanmar Investment Commission expects FDI to reach $6 billion in the next budget year, though it has not yet announced an official target. Maung Aung, a senior economist at the Ministry of Commerce, acknowledged that many potential investors were waiting to see how Burma's political situation unfolds next year. "If the political situation improves, economic development will accelerate," he said. "What I'm concerned about is if the country's political situation is unstable next year, this will directly hit economic development," he said, adding that security was of paramount concern to would-be investors. "Practically speaking, [development of] special economic zones in Burma is ongoing. The Thilawa SEZ will be done after next year, as well as the Dawei SEZ, so after finishing these SEZs, more investors will come. Let's see what happens beyond next year," Maung Aung said, adding that consensus should drive governance in the coming year. "Leaders should have mutual understanding. This is not the time to argue with each other. We need better economic policy," he said. Khin Maung Nyo, also an economist, echoed Aung Ko Ko's sentiment, tying economic performance in the coming year to political stability. After Thein Sein's administration took office in March 2011, the president in a televised address said that his administration wanted to triple Burma's economic growth by 2016. It has grown more than 7 percent over the last two years. In January, Thein Sein said the government was aiming for economic expansion of 9.1 percent in 2014-15, the region's most ambitious growth rate target, for a country that remains one of Asia's poorest. According to International Monetary Fund estimates published in August 2013, based on Burmese government data, the country's GDP was $55.3 billion for the 2012-13 fiscal year, and was expected to grow to $59.4 billion in 2013-14. Additional reporting by The Irrawaddy's Nobel Zaw. The post Economists Say Political Stability Key to Growth appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine. | |
| Women Garment Workers Join Forces Amid Lure of City Jobs Posted: 01 Dec 2014 09:59 PM PST  Former Master Sports workers count their salary and severance pay, which they received from the Labor Ministry in Octover (Photo: Sai Zaw / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON – When Aye Cho Khine left her family in a farming town in central Burma for work and better pay in the city of Rangoon 16 years ago, she felt lost and bewildered. "I was only 19. Yangon was so big, there were so many people and I only had two friends so I felt quite scared," said Aye Cho Khine, her hair cropped short and teeth stained reddish-black from chewing betel nut. But she stuck it out, working her way up to become quality control supervisor in a Korean-owned garment factory. The 35-year-old is now an active member of Thone Pan Hla, Burma’s first female garment factory workers association, sharing her experience with young newcomers from the countryside. Women account for an estimated 90 percent of the 180,000 workers in Burma’s garment industry, which is expanding again following the easing of international sanctions. Clothing exports are expected to be worth $1.5 billion in 2014. News of job prospects in the city is spreading, and thousands of young women from villages and towns across Burma are pouring into city factories for their first ever taste of financial independence. Yet for many of these young women, the transition from life in the village—with parents’ strict guidance and financial support—to the city can be fraught with risks and challenges. Young women can easily fall prey to unscrupulous landlords and supervisors, said Helen Gunthorpe, founder of Business Kind, a social enterprise that helped set up Thone Pan Hla in 2011. The existence of a worker-run association like Thone Pan Hla would have been unheard of during Burma’s half a century of military rule. Then, groups needed a connection with the army to survive. In 2011, a new government began implementing a raft of reforms, and was rewarded with the easing of sanctions. Thone Pan Hla has no political affiliation and focuses on the welfare of women garment workers. Its ‘Sunday Cafe’ and temporary dormitory provide a space for women to make friends, learn skills and share tips to help newly-arrived women ease into their new lives. A Meeting Place Most garment workers earn about $80 to $120 a month and toil 12 hours a day, six days a week, in Hlaing Thar Yar, a factory town outside the former capital Rangoon. The spacious Sunday Café—launched in August and open on workers’ one day off—offers snacks and tea, a small library with books and magazines, a place to wash and iron clothes and a flat-screen TV showing Hollywood movies and Korean soap operas. Upstairs, the temporary dormitory for new migrants has space for 18 women. Gunthorpe said that her organization received small grants in 2011 and 2012 that allowed research into the lives of garment workers, leading to the establishment of Thone Pan Hla. "The need was easy to see because there was no organization for women garment workers here in Myanmar at the time," she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. Thone Pan Hla currently has around 2,000 members, who pay a one-time membership fee of 300 kyats (about 30 cents). Aye Cho Khine is one of a handful of members who turn up for regular meetings at the Sunday Cafe. "We’re new so we’re still trying to gain momentum," Aye Cho Khine said. "Only time will tell how useful we can be but having a space like this to meet and share will at least broaden the horizon for the newcomers." Growing Industry Burma once had a thriving garment industry, employing close to 300,000 people before the United States imposed trade sanctions in July 2003, said Khine Khine Nwe, joint secretary general of the Myanmar Garment Manufacturers Association. "After the sanctions, it went as low as 60,000. Almost half of the factories gradually closed down," she said. Some argue the sanctions impoverished ordinary citizens, while others say they forced the junta on a path to democracy. With sanctions now suspended or lifted, the garment industry is expected to continue growing. So will the need to support the industry’s workers. "A lot of young women spend most of their days in factories, and they don’t have the opportunity to meet each other, share ideas and make friends," said Win Yu Khine, 26, who earns $96 a month, sitting with friends at the Sunday Cafe. "This is fun." Khine Khine Nwe welcomes the idea of the Sunday Cafe but said it should also be open to female employers like herself. "It should be a space for every woman in the industry where once you enter, nobody is an employer or nobody is an employee… a platform to make us feel we’re the same." The post Women Garment Workers Join Forces Amid Lure of City Jobs appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine. | |
| Taiwan, Hong Kong a Challenge for China Posted: 01 Dec 2014 08:49 PM PST  Supporters wave flags after independent Taipei mayoral candidate Ko Wen-je defeated the Kuomintang candidate on Saturday, breaking the ruling party's 16-year hold on Taiwan's capital. Photo (Pichi Chuang / Reuters). TAIPEI — An electoral pummeling for Taiwan’s pro-Beijing ruling party and a new spike in pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong have delivered a reality check to Chinese President Xi Jinping just when he was riding a wave of high-profile diplomacy. Xi’s message of a better economic future by joining forces with Beijing rather than aligning against it doesn’t seem to be working with the electorate in Taiwan, where voters turned out in droves over the weekend to support the chief opposition Democratic Progressive Party in local elections. The DPP advocates more distance between Taiwan and China and taps into concerns many Taiwanese have over any eventual unification with authoritarian Beijing. Likewise, Xi’s message is not working with the Hong Kong protesters, who clashed with police early Monday as they tried to surround government headquarters to revitalize their flagging movement in the face of Beijing’s intransigence on democratic reforms. The Hong Kong protests reminded Taiwanese voters of what Taiwan could become in the event of unification with China, said Kweibo Huang, associate professor of diplomacy at National Chengchi University in Taipei. "Hong Kong consolidated Taiwan voter worries about relations with mainland China," Huang said. The DPP won seven of nine races for mayors and county chiefs, delivering a major setback to the ruling Nationalist Party, which advocates greater economic integration across the Taiwan Strait. That poses a complex challenge for Beijing, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has vowed to take control of the island by force if necessary. The poll results build on months of opposition among the young and middle class to Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou’s steps to further reduce economic barriers between the sides and propel them toward talks on political unification. Concerns in Hong Kong that the economic rise of mainland China marginalizes the former British colony also are high among the pro-democracy protesters there. Likewise in Taiwan, many residents fear the island’s economy could be swallowed up by China, flooding its labor market to keep wages low as living costs rise. "Ma Ying-jeou’s policies don’t seem to be producing a trickle-down effect. Voters had the feeling that, today Hong Kong, tomorrow Taiwan," said Joseph Cheng, an expert on Chinese politics at City university of Hong Kong. Beijing has limited room to adjust to changes in Taiwan and Hong Kong, given its fears of stoking pro-democracy sentiment at home and its long-established positions on the two territories. It has long pushed for Taiwan to accept the "one country, two systems" policy it negotiated for Hong Kong when it was returned by Britain in 1997, which allows the city some autonomy and a separate economic and judicial system, but places it firmly under Beijing’s ultimate authority. Xi has continued to push the "one country, two systems" approach with Taiwan despite broad opposition among the island’s 23 million people. He also has made it clear that he won’t be backing down from his insistence that candidates for Hong Kong’s chief executive in 2017 inaugural elections first be vetted and approved by a Beijing-appointed panel. Xi’s unwavering line stands in contrast to his soft power push in foreign policy that seeks to portray the world’s second-largest economy as strong and confident, while assuaging fears over how China plans to use that newfound strength. In recent weeks, Xi has hosted the annual summit of the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Beijing, attended the G20 meeting in Australia and visited Fiji to boost China’s contacts with the Pacific islands. He’s put forward proposals for a regional free trade area and an Asian lending institution that could rival the World Bank, casting Beijing in the global leadership role it has craved but long shied from. Appearing relaxed and in control, the president followed up with a major foreign policy address on Saturday, speaking both of China’s growing integration with the international community and its firm resolve to not compromise on its territorial claims. "China must have its own style of large country foreign relations," Xi said. "Travel the road of peaceful development, but at the same time, never abandon our legitimate rights, and definitely do not sacrifice our national core interests." While received with maximum fanfare abroad, Xi may have a harder time convincing public opinion in Taiwan and Hong Kong, both of which lie far closer and feel greatly more threatened by China’s rise. A former Japanese colony, Taiwan split from the Chinese mainland amid civil war in 1949, and its government is regarded by Beijing as the illegitimate administration of a renegade province. Since 2008, Taiwan and China have signed 21 trade, transit and investment agreements, but protesters in March occupied parliament in Taipei to stop ratification of a China trade liberalization deal. The demonstrators’ ranks grew into the tens of thousands. When Hong Kong reverted to Chinese rule, Beijing said it would allow universal suffrage in the 2017 election for chief executive. However, Beijing’s demand that candidates be endorsed by a pro-Beijing panel have dented expectations of full democracy as promised. Repeating scenes that have become familiar since their movement began in late September, Hong Kong protesters carrying umbrellas battled police armed with pepper spray, batons and riot shields early Monday. The protesters, many wearing surgical masks, hard hats and safety goggles, chanted "I want true democracy." Although the Hong Kong protests were not a leading campaign issue in Taiwan, analysts said voters considered their own government’s growing ties with China when ousting the Nationalists from nine mayoral and county magistrate jobs, a steeper-than-expected loss for the ruling party. Two of those positions were won by independents. Following Saturday’s defeat, Premier Jiang Yi-huah and his Cabinet members tendered their formal resignations but remained on as a caretaker government. The electoral battering puts the Nationalist Party on the defensive ahead of a 2016 presidential election that Ma is barred from contesting due to term limits. In both Hong Kong and Taiwan, the business and political elite generally back closer ties with China, while young people see their future prospects threatened by mainland competition. There are also wide fears that civil rights, such as a free press and independent political organizations, will be eroded by politicians and businessmen seeking to ingratiate themselves with Beijing. Given those feelings, China needs more than just strong business ties to win over a democratic electorate, said Hsu Yung-ming, a political scientist with Soochow University in Taipei. "Whether getting too close to China will be dangerous, that was a big issue," Hsu said. The post Taiwan, Hong Kong a Challenge for China appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine. | |
| Thai Banks Chase Regional Dreams as Domestic Lending Boom Fades Posted: 01 Dec 2014 08:44 PM PST  A woman walks into Thailand’s Bank of Ayudhya in Bangkok July 3, 2013. (Photo: Reuters) BANGKOK — Thailand’s big banks are hitching a ride on the caravan of Thai companies departing for new growth centers in the Greater Mekong region, which includes Burma and southern China, as a chill in retail lending drives them to look outward for long-term growth. Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) and Kasikornbank are investing millions in new branches overseas as they step up lending and trade financing to Thai businesses expanding in Cambodia, Laos, Burma and Vietnam. "Expanding in foreign markets where we are not familiar has some risks," Chaiyarit Anuchitworawong, executive vice president of Bangkok Bank, told Reuters. "But if our clients go first and we follow them, this will help reduce some risks." Thai direct investment in Cambodia, Laos, Burma and Vietnam rose to $936 million last year, the highest since the 2008-2009 global crisis. At stake for Thai entrepreneurs—and Thai banks—is a chance to grow in a combined economy almost the size of Thailand’s. The formation of a single market in Southeast Asia, planned to begin in 2015, also raises hopes of freer capital flows and expectations of higher demand for banking services. Success for Thailand’s banks will depend on how quickly they can beef up their presence. Any stalling in domestic loan and deposit growth due to the prolonged and severe downturn in the Thai economy or a sharp drop in the banks’ substantial capital reserves will challenge their plans, analysts say. Kasikornbank plans to nearly double its staff in Southeast Asia and China next year, after investing $40 million in a new branch in Laos opening in December, its president Teeranun Srihong told Reuters. SCB aims to hire up to 50 staff in Cambodia, Laos, Burma and Vietnam over the next three to five years as the bank sets up the infrastructure for corporate banking, said Kamalkant Agarwal, head of its international banking business. Bangkok Bank, which has the biggest foreign operation among Thailand’s big four banks with international lending comprising 16-17 percent of total loans, plans to open a branch in Phnom Penh this year. It is also the only Thai lender with a banking license in Burma. "We do not expect to see strong growth in the near future, but it’s an opportunity that will boost organic growth for Thai banks," said Adisorn Muangparnchon, a Bangkok-based analyst at Phillip Securities. "Risk will be limited, given most Thai banks are following Thai companies expanding in the region." Bankers have voiced concerns about compliance and regulatory uncertainty, especially in Burma. But Thai companies remain upbeat about the region. "Economies have a very strong potential with average growth of 7 to 8 percent a year. Burma’s (energy drink market) has grown 150 percent in the past year," said Sathien Setthasit, CEO of Thai energy drink maker Carabao Group. Domestic Woes Political unrest and a military coup this year have slowed Thai investment in the region. In the first nine months of 2014, direct investment in Cambodia, Laos, Burma and Vietnam fell 13.46 percent to 20.4 billion baht ($619.87 million), Bank of Thailand data published on Nov. 28 shows. The political upheavals have also disrupted a decade-long Thai credit boom. Non-performing consumer loans have soared to a four-year high as households struggle to pay back debts, slamming the brakes on private demand and leading the World Bank to cut Thailand’s economic growth forecast to the lowest in Southeast Asia. To be sure, Thai banks are far better capitalized today with bigger buffers against bad loans compared to the 1997-98 financial crisis. The capital adequacy ratios of the country’s big four lenders range from 15.85 percent to 18.7 percent. Among banks in Southeast Asia’s biggest economies, Thai lenders also stood out with the highest return on equity last year, at 21.4 percent, Thomson Reuters data shows. Now is their chance to look outward, analysts say. Competition from regional players in the domestic banking scene is also intensifying, building a case to diversify. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group acquired a 72 percent stake in Bank of Ayudhya Pcl, Thailand’s fifth-biggest lender, in late 2013. Increasing economic integration will also drive capital flows across borders, and in turn, demand for banking services and lending, said Kittiya Todhanakasem, first senior executive vice president at Krung Thai Bank. "Those countries are undergoing several infrastructure projects, giving Thai companies an opportunity to get orders and operate in those countries," Kittiya said. The post Thai Banks Chase Regional Dreams as Domestic Lending Boom Fades appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine. | |
| India Takes Step Toward Resolving Border Dispute With Bangladesh Posted: 01 Dec 2014 08:38 PM PST  India's Border Security Force soldiers patrol along the fencing of the India-Bangladesh international border on the outskirts of Agartala, capital of India's northeastern state of Tripura, on April 4, 2014. (Photo: Reuters) NEW DELHI — India has inched closer to settling a long-simmering border dispute with Bangladesh, possibly signaling a softer line from nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi than when he was in opposition. On Monday, a parliamentary committee urged the government to table a constitutional amendment that would pave the way for a land swap deal that Bangladesh and India have been negotiating for years. That followed a speech by Modi at the weekend that suggested a solution was in the offing. In addition to Bangladesh, India has intractable territorial disputes with Pakistan and China. Modi called off peace talks with Pakistan in August but last week appointed a special envoy to China, a move that will allow border negotiations to resume. A deal with Bangladesh would end decades of uncertainty for tens of thousands of citizens living in enclaves on the "wrong" side of their homeland's border. Dozens of enclaves exist on either side of the border, a historical oddity left after British India's partition in 1947. The proposed solution would enable each side to acquire the enclaves within its borders, along with other disputed territories. On paper, the exchange appears to leave India with about 10,000 acres less territory and affects the more than 50,000 people living in the enclaves, as of a July 2011 headcount. People living in the enclaves would have the right to move to live in their original country of nationality or to become nationals of their "new" country after the exchange. Most are expected to stay put, according to the Indian government. Neither country would lose any territory they currently control, said Shashi Tharoor, head of the parliamentary committee and a minister in the last government. "It is merely regularizing the existing reality in a way that permits both countries to extend normal public services to the residents of these areas," he told Reuters. Despite the BJP's past objections, Modi seemed to back such a deal on Sunday during a speech in Assam, one of the Indian states that would be affected. "Whatever we do, there might be a perception of a short-term loss, but ultimately Assam will gain," said Modi, who discussed the border with his Bangladeshi counterpart last week. Modi said the deal could help curb illegal immigration from Bangladesh, a hot political issue in border areas. Bangladesh's foreign secretary declined to comment on the proposed deal. Enclave dwellers in India welcomed the prospect of a deal. "I will finally have the chance to obtain an identity," said Jamal Hussain, a 20-year-old farm worker who lives in Masaldanya enclave nestled within West Bengal. Not everyone was happy. "The land of Assam that is supposed to be handed over belongs to Assam," said Samujjal Bhattacharya, an advisor to the influential All Assam Students' Union. "[The BJP] are taking a U-turn today. How can that be?" But as the Modi government looks to tackle bigger regional problems, resolving the border dispute with Bangladesh would be a solid start, some say. "They have to sort out some of the issues that are low-hanging fruit," said Anand Kumar, of the New Delhi-based think-tank the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses. The post India Takes Step Toward Resolving Border Dispute With Bangladesh appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine. | |
| Posted: 01 Dec 2014 08:32 PM PST  Chinese President XI Jinping speaks during a news conference with US President Barack Obama in the Great Hall of the People of Beijing on Nov. 12. (Photo: Reuters) From a military rules-of-the-road agreement with Washington to US$20 billion in loans for Southeast Asia, Beijing has set aside the tensions of recent years to present a softer side to the world last month. But proof of whether President Xi Jinping is serious about narrowing differences that have marked his first two years in office will depend on how China's festering disputes are managed in the months ahead. The possibilities for disagreement are many, from cyberspying to land reclamation in the disputed South China Sea and the deeply emotional issue for China of how Japan deals with next year's 70th anniversary of the end of World War II. China set nerves on edge with its air defense zone over the East China Sea, by sending an oil rig deep into waters disputed with Vietnam and by unveiling advanced new weapons, including a prototype stealth fighter. But China has recently gone out of its way to set minds at ease as President Xi hosted the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. China made conciliatory gestures to Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, and, with US President Barack Obama, agreed to a climate deal and to lower the risk of misunderstandings during military encounters. "We still have to observe what happens in the next six to 12 months or even longer. But I think that now we stand at the beginning of a substantive change in Chinese foreign policy," said Shi Yinhong, head of the Centre for American Studies at Beijing's Renmin University who has also advised the government on diplomatic issues. Reliance on the military has been replaced by money to guide China's diplomacy, Shi Yinhong added, pointing to the $40 billion New Silk Road fund and the $50 billion China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank announced before APEC. More than $120 billion has been promised since May to Africa, Southeast Asia and Central Asia. "The message is that China sincerely hopes that it can play its role as a responsible power," the official China Daily newspaper wrote in an editorial on Nov. 17. The root causes of past disagreements have, for now, been set aside. State-run Xinhua news agency sought to temper expectations following President Xi's meeting with Mr. Obama on Nov. 11-12, saying that, despite the "amicable tone," "still much has to be done to translate promises into reality." As if to remind the United States of China's growing military power, the day before President Xi Jinpingand Mr. Obama's summit, the Chinese military unveiled a sophisticated new stealth fighter jet at an air show in the south of the country. "A lot of problems exist and there will be a lot of uncertainty in the days to come," said JiaQingguo, dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University who has also advised the government on diplomacy. China has long sought to address fears in the region, and globally, that economic growth will inevitably bring a more muscular diplomatic and military approach. During a summit of Southeast Asia leaders in Myanmar last month, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang proposed a friendship treaty, yet held to the line that Beijing will only settle South China Sea disputes directly with other claimants. Philippine President Benigno Aquino said he and President Xi Jinping had a good meeting in Beijing, but the Philippine military says there has been no sign of China reducing its presence in parts of the South China Sea that Manila also claims. Then there is Japan. China and Japan, the world's second—and third—largest economies, have argued bitterly for two years over disputed islands, regional influence and the legacy of Japan's wartime occupation of China. While President Xi and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held breakthrough talks just before APEC, in recognition of the economic damage inflicted by their row, suspicion runs deep. "Whether or not incidents or disturbances can be prevented from happening again between the two countries depends on Japan's attitude and actions," Han Zhiqiang, acting Chinese ambassador to Japan, was quoted saying in state media last month. China has already promised high-profile events to mark next year's World War II anniversary, offering another opportunity to accuse Japan of not properly atoning for its past. "Japan is particularly worried about how the anniversary will be handled in China," said one Beijing-based Western envoy. India presents another problem, with no sign of lasting resolution to a festering border dispute. In recognition of the world's concerns, President Xi, speaking to Australia's parliament on Nov. 17, channeled an ancient expression to assuage worries: "A war-mongering state will eventually die no matter how big it is." He did not finish the saying, whose last line reads: "Though the world is peaceful, you will be in danger if you forget about preparing for war." This story first appeared in the December 2014 print issue of The Irrawaddy magazine.
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