Wednesday, June 3, 2015

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine


Kachin Leader Deals Dose of Reality at Ethnic Ceasefire Summit

Posted: 03 Jun 2015 07:55 AM PDT

Ethic leaders convene in Karen State's Law Khee Lar for a summit of the NCCT on June 2, 2015. (Photo: Hein Htet / The Irrawaddy)

Ethic leaders convene in Karen State's Law Khee Lar for a summit of the NCCT on June 2, 2015. (Photo: Hein Htet / The Irrawaddy)

LAW KHEE LAR, Karen State — The second day of an ethnic leadership summit here in eastern Burma started off with a markedly different tone, as a senior Kachin official urged his peers to proceed toward peace with caution.

N'Ban Hla, joint chairman of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), delivered opening remarks on Wednesday countering the eager optimism of yesterday's speakers, among them Karen National Union (KNU) Chairman Gen. Mutu Say Poe and UN special envoy to Burma Vijay Nambiar.

The summit, a meeting of the ethnic negotiating bloc known as the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT), convened in Karen State's Law Khee Lar on Tuesday, and is expected to continue through Saturday. As the 16-member bloc inches closer to reaching a nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) between ethnic armed groups and the Burmese government, the conference is expected to cover most of the remaining points of contention about a draft to which both sides of the conflict committed in March.

The Kachin spokesman urged other members of the NCCT to abstain from the agreement until all members were included. Three NCCT members—the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA)—are still in active conflict with government forces.

N'Ban Hla further warned his brothers-in-arms to be skeptical of President Thein Sein's commitment to establishing a federal system of government, one of the key demands of ethnic leaders nationwide.

"All our ethnic people know it is easy for President Thein Sein to say he accepts what we ask for: establishing a federal system in the country," N'Ban Hla said to an audience of diligent listeners. "We all know [the government] made a similar promise when it wrote the 2008 Constitution. We have to be careful that they will not bring this Constitution to the political dialogue [as it precludes political autonomy for ethnic states]."

Political dialogue is set to commence within 60 days of signing the accord, and amendments to the military-drafted charter have long been considered prerequisite to peace by many ethnic leaders. At present, constitutional amendment does not seem likely before elections slated for November, as the head of Burma's election commission recently indicated.

Solidarity?

N'Ban Hla, who also serves as chairman of the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), the latest iteration of an ethnic political coalition in Burma, spoke at length about the seriousness of conflict in northern Shan State, particularly involving Kokang and Palaung (Ta'ang) forces, which are not recognized by the government.

"Palaung and Kokang are among the groups included in the list of 135 ethnicities officially recognized by Burma. But we can see that [the government] is treating the Kokang as though they don't belong to our country," N'Ban Hla said, referring to recent conflict in the remote border region that has been among the most relentless in decades.

N'Ban Hla expressed his deep respect for the Kokang of the MNDAA, saying the group's leader, Peng Jiasheng, was "like a golden star which came down from the sky." The MNDAA, he reminded his peers, was one of the first ethnic armed groups in Burma to reap the developmental benefits of a peace deal, which Jiasheng helped to secure in 1989.

Regarding Jiasheng's 2009 ouster by the government and his attempted return earlier this year—which triggered the conflict—N'Ban Hla said fondly that, "we have sympathy for him." He urged negotiators to hold out for an agreement inclusive of all ethnic stakeholders, especially those that are now vulnerable to attacks.

While some attendees, most noticeably the KNU's Mutu Say Poe, said it was time to push ahead with the NCA and move on to political dialogue, several sided firmly with N'Ban Hla. Nai Hong Sar, who sits at the head of the NCCT, told reporters on the sidelines of Wednesday's meeting that the group would "not abandon" the Kokang, Palaung and Arakanese forces. A top KIA official, who wished not to be named, predicted that the KIA would not sign a ceasefire agreement until successful elections had been carried out.

Despite some disagreements, likely leading to lively discussions throughout the remainder of the conference, most attendees could appreciate N'Ban Hla's closing sentiments, which asked ethnic leaders to remain mindful that a lasting peace has been their goal for decades, and that no one ever expected it to come quickly.

"I want to ask all ethnic leaders joining this summit to deeply discuss their cases for or against signing the NCA. Many of our ethnic people have paid with their lives in the fight for peace," he said. "Now is the time for all of our ethnic people, and the Burmese involved in the fighting, to find one common agreement and create a federal system in our country. We have fought for this for many decades."

The post Kachin Leader Deals Dose of Reality at Ethnic Ceasefire Summit appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Former ‘White Card’ Holders to Get a Turquoise Alternative: Official

Posted: 03 Jun 2015 05:55 AM PDT

 A man identified as an ethnic Bengali holds up his temporary identity

A man identified as an ethnic Bengali holds up his temporary identity "white card." (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Burma's Immigration and National Registration Department says people living in the country who lack identity documents after handing over their temporary ID cards in recent weeks will be issued an alternative form of documentation beginning on Friday.

The plan appears to be an attempt to deal with hundreds of thousands of people in Burma who have recently seen their only form of government ID, namely the temporary identity documents known as "white cards," invalidated by the administration of President Thein Sein.

Tin Chit, director of the department under the Ministry of Immigration and Population, told The Irrawaddy that not all former white card holders would receive the new document on Friday.

"Even though the process starts on June 5, the card may be issued on June 7, or 8," he said, citing the time required to process would-be card holders.

The new cards will be valid for two years with the possibility to renew the document at that time, the director said. With a far more unwieldy nomenclature than its predecessor, the "identity card for those whose nationality will be scrutinized" will do just as its name implies, Tin Chit said, offering former white card holders a form of ID until their claim to citizenship can be assessed.

Tin Chit said the card will be a blue-green color.

Holders making a claim to Burmese citizenship will need to submit an application to the Ministry of Immigration and Population tracing familial roots in Burma in accordance with the 1982 Citizenship Law. The so-called "citizenship scrutiny process" is not well understood, but has been promoted by the government as a way for white card holders, the largest contingent being stateless minority Rohingya Muslims, to become citizens.

Applicants who undergo the citizenship scrutiny process can receive full, naturalized or associated citizenship.

Holders of the new cards who fail to receive any of these designations would simply continue to hold their blue-green card, according to Tin Chit.

Immigration and Population Minister Khin Ye said on Friday at a press conference in Naypyidaw that those who returned their white cards would be given new identity documents allowing them to remain inside the country.

The plan appears to have come in response to mounting calls internationally for Burma to address the stateless status of the Rohingya, more than 100,000 of whom have fled the country since violence between Buddhists and Muslims in 2012. The plight of the Rohingya has made headlines in recent weeks as thousands of so-called "boat people" have washed ashore in Southeast Asia from Bangladesh and Burma, the former seeking economic opportunity and the latter said to be fleeing persecution in Arakan State.

US President Barack Obama became the most prominent voice to express concern over Burma's treatment of the Rohingya, saying this week that the Muslim minority was being discriminated against.

The government began issuing white cards in 1995, according to Tin Chit, but Thein Sein announced in February that these cards would expire on March 31, with the president asking white card holders to return them to local authorities by May 31.

More than 400,000 white cards have since been returned, 90 percent of them coming from Arakan State. Tin Chit said last week that government records indicated that more than 760,000 white cards had been issued, though some estimates put the number of people holding the temporary ID as high as 1.5 million.

White card holders were allowed to vote in Burma's general election in 2010, but Parliament is in the process of stripping white card holders from election laws dictating eligible voters for nationwide polls due late this year.

It appears unlikely that holders of the new blue-green cards will be granted suffrage.

Tin Chit on Wednesday said the government would also process those who claim to have once held a white card but lost it, as is the case for many Rohingya Muslims whose homes were burned to the ground in the 2012 violence.

Those unable to produce a physical card would be allowed to tell local authorities their white card ID number, which the government can check against national registries, he said.

"After giving new identity cards for those people who return white cards, we will give [blue-green cards] to those people [with no card in hand]," said Tin Chit.

The largest group of white card holders was Rohingya living in Arakan State, though holders of the temporary identity document were from a variety of ethnic groups sprinkled throughout the country.

In an apparent deflecting of recent international criticism, Tin Chit said there would be no blanket citizenship granted to Rohingya Muslims.

"Every citizen is interrogated under the Citizenship Law to obtain citizenship cards and we cannot make special [exceptions] to Bengalis, so come and undergo scrutiny and get the relevant cards," Tin Chit said, referring to the Muslim minority by the official government term.

The post Former 'White Card' Holders to Get a Turquoise Alternative: Official appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Environmentalists Discover Arsenic in Hlaing Tharyar Industrial Zone

Posted: 03 Jun 2015 05:22 AM PDT

Arsenic has been found in the groundwater around Rangoon's biggest industrial zone, Hlaing Tharyar, June 3, 2015. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

Arsenic has been found in the groundwater around Rangoon's biggest industrial zone, Hlaing Tharyar, June 3, 2015. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Arsenic has been found in the groundwater around Rangoon's biggest industrial zone, the director of the environmental rights group Eco-Dev, Win Myo Thu, told The Irrawaddy on Wednesday.

Since 2013, Eco-Dev has been checking the water quality inside Hlaing Tharyar. After a recent survey, their results indicated high levels of arsenic in the groundwater, which is discharging into the Pun Hlaing River.

"We've tested the river's surface water quality to see if it contained arsenic and we found it there as well as in the groundwater," Win Myo Thu said.

Within the industrial zone, there are 600 factories employing more than 60,000 workers. Most factories discharge untreated wastewater into drainage systems, where it then flowsinto the river along with sewage. This water often contains chemicals used inthe factories, which produce garments, paint, electronics and home appliances.

Arsenic can occur naturally in minerals and metals, but its compounds are also used in the production of pesticides, treated wood, herbicides, insecticides and was also once used in paint.

"Arsenic can be found within the earth, so we will have to continue to do more surveys to find out whether this arsenic came from the ground or from factories," Win Myo Thu said. "If it comes from the factories, this is dangerous. We will have to do something about it."

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), arsenic is one of the top ten chemicals causing major health concerns today. A 2007 study by Cambridge University researchers found that more than 137 million people in at least 70 countries have been affected by arsenic in their drinking water.

The minimal lethal dose in adults is estimated to be 70 to 200 milligrams (0.002 to 0.007 ounces), or rather, linked to an individual's size: 1 milligram of arsenic per kilogram of body weight, per day. The WHO defines safe exposure as 0.01 milligram of arsenic per liter of drinking water.

"We have found that the arsenic levels here are higher than the WHO's standard amount," Win Myo Thu said.

Myat Thin Aung, the chairman of Hlaing Tharyar Industrial Zone, said that factory owners should undergo awareness training about the environmental impacts of industry and the corresponding health problems, but the management committee does not require such trainings as a mandate.

"I have suggested that factories should set up water treatment machines. There should also be a central system for all of the factories to treat their waste water," Win Myo Thu said.

Over the last three years, the Myanmar Medical Research Department has conducted surveys to measure arsenic levels in the Irrawaddy Delta and Bago Division.

"Arsenic can be found mostly in water. Rangoon is part of the Irrawaddy Delta region, and arsenic is found in delta areas," Dr. Than Htut, a public health physician, told The Irrawaddy. More than 12,000 people were tested during the survey, but only four were found to be suffering from probable cases of arsenic poisoning, he explained.

According to Dr. Than Htut, those suffering from exposure to arsenic may suffer from skin diseases and serious illnesses years later. "Significant diseases don't show up in the short term, but in the longterm, and it is linked to various cancers."

"Studies by the government and by other groups like Eco-Dev suggest that the river's water quality is not good," Dr. Than Htut said. "We need to study more about the impact of arsenic in Hlaing Tharyar Industrial Zone."

The first environmental awareness seminar on the impact of groundwater arsenic took place this week in Hlaing Tharyar Industrial Zone's Kanaung Hall. It was arranged for the factories by Eco-Dev and the zone's management committee.

The post Environmentalists Discover Arsenic in Hlaing Tharyar Industrial Zone appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Burma Eases 3-Month Fishing Ban

Posted: 03 Jun 2015 05:17 AM PDT

Fishermen and their boats are seen off the Arakan State coast. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

Fishermen and their boats are seen off the Arakan State coast. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — More than 1,000 trawlers have been given the greenlight to go back to catching fish off Burma's coast after the fishing industry lodged a complaint over what had been a three-month ban on any fishing in the country's territorial waters.

The ban from June through August was imposed in May by Burma's Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Rural Development, which cited concerns about overfishing.

"Parliament decided to impose a total ban on fishing," said Maung Maung Soe, chairman of the Myanmar Marine Fisheries Association. "We then sent a letter to the ministry, asking it to allow nearly 50 percent of fishing vessels to catch fish. There are over 2,000 fishing vessels [registered in Burma] and then the ministry allowed nearly 50 percent to catch fish."

Early last month, the Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Rural Development announced a three-month ban on fishing effective June 1.

A lawmaker had called for government action to handle depleting fish stocks in Burma's territorial waters at the 12th regular session of Parliament in February and subsequently received parliamentary approval for a temporary halt to fishing operations of the country's coast.

Four hundred vessels from Rangoon, 380 from Tenasserim Division, 200 from Irrawaddy Division and 40 from Arakan State,

A total of 1,020 trawlers from four of Burma's six coastal divisions and states will be allowed to resume operations, said Maung Maung Soe.

For the fishing industry, the ban presents a predicament: While less fishing will help to replenish Burma's dwindling fish stocks, the short-term effect potentially imperils the financial viability of fishing enterprises.

"[The fishing ban] does not trouble me much because I am hired as a skilled worker for the whole year including the post-fishing season period," said Kyaw Lin Htike, who works on a seagoing trawler in Irrawaddy Division. "But it is a problem for daily wage earners. I have around 25 daily wage earners working under me."

Operators of cold storage units, a business connected with the fishing industry, might be forced to suspend operations if a total ban on fishing were imposed for three months, warned fishing operators, adding the facilities' employees to the ranks of fishermen without work.

Of more than 50 cold storage operators in Rangoon Division, around 30 rely on seafood and there are around 18,000 people working on fishing vessels in the division alone, according to the Myanmar Marine Fisheries Association.

Burma has a fishing territory of 486,000 square kilometers and there are a total of 2,594 legal fishing trawlers, according to the association.

The post Burma Eases 3-Month Fishing Ban appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

USDP Lawmaker Calls for Hard Line on ‘Boat People’

Posted: 03 Jun 2015 01:36 AM PDT

A Burmese military officer (top) speaks on the radio from a boat packed with migrants off Leik Island in the Andaman Sea, May 31, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

A Burmese military officer (top) speaks on the radio from a boat packed with migrants off Leik Island in the Andaman Sea, May 31, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

RANGOON — Burma's Upper House of Parliament on Tuesday heard an urgent proposal to limit the detention of "boat people" rescued from Burmese waters.

Hla Swe, a member of the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), submitted the resolution, urging lawmakers to swiftly implement a "precise policy" for dealing with thousands of migrants and refugees believed to be adrift in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.

Most of the so-called "boat people" were determined to be Rohingya Muslims by the United Nations and several foreign governments, after thousands made land in neighboring countries. A significant remainder are migrants from Bangladesh. Burma has insisted that it is a transit country along the human trafficking route, and that those aboard are mostly from Bangladesh.

The Burmese government does not recognize Rohingya as one of the country's ethnic minority groups, referring to them as "Bengali" which implies that they are illegal immigrants. More than 100,000 Rohingya, who are denied citizenship, have lived in isolated displacement camps deadly riots gripped western Burma's Arakan State in 2012.

Amid claims by the international community that conditions in the state prompted people to flee, Hla Swe said that it was "very disappointing" that the international community would make such assertions without adequate verification of their origins.

The lawmaker cited the Burma Navy's recent recovery of a boat carrying 200 Bangladeshi migrants, whose origins were also verified by the United Nations, as evidence that a hard line from the Burmese government could lead the international community to a different conclusion.

"Thanks to our government's stance on the fact that they were not from Burma, now they [the United Nations] have admitted that those boat people are not from Burma," H;a Swe said. "My urgent proposal is to enforce that stance."

The proposal recommended limiting the duration of stay for migrants found in Burmese waters and brought to shore for verification. More than the required one third of the Upper House—a full 184 of 191 present—voted in favor of the resolution, enough to warrant extended debate.

"The government should set the duration of the detention, whether it is 15 days or 30. If it takes longer than that, people worry that the boat people will have more opportunity to mix with the people here and pretend that they are official ethnics of Myanmar," Hla Swe said in his appeal to the chamber.

"It would be more suitable if they were escorted to neighboring countries or international waters with food and water," he added.

The 200 migrants are still being detained on the Burmese side of the border with Bangladesh awaiting deportation. Arakan State Chief minister said on Sunday that the Burmese government is ready to return them as soon as Bangladesh can take them in.

Last Friday, the Burma Navy discovered another boat carrying more than 700 people, who have since been held offshore and inaccessible to reporters and aid agencies. Those aboard the ship are expected to be brought ashore for scrutiny on Wednesday.

Minister of information Ye Htut said on Tuesday that preliminary identification measures concluded that "nearly all" of the passengers were from Bangladesh.

"In order to take them back to Bangladesh, the [Burma] Navy is beginning to bring them to a safer place as a first step for more verification processes," the minister said. "After that, we will carry out the handover."

The post USDP Lawmaker Calls for Hard Line on 'Boat People' appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Rohingya Need to Be Treated as Burmese Citizens: US

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 11:27 PM PDT

US Assistant Secretary of State Anne C. Richard (C) during the opening ceremony of the Special Meeting on Irregular Migration in the Indian Ocean in Bangkok, May 29, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

US Assistant Secretary of State Anne C. Richard (C) during the opening ceremony of the Special Meeting on Irregular Migration in the Indian Ocean in Bangkok, May 29, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

RANGOON — US migration envoy Anne C. Richard on Wednesday briefed reporters on the Southeast Asia migrant crisis, calling for continued regional support and citizenship for Burma's stateless Rohingya Muslims.

"The Rohingya need to be treated as citizens of Burma, they need to have the papers to show that," Assistant Secretary of State Richard said during a conference call from Jakarta following a visit to migrant holding centers in Malaysia and Indonesia.

Stressing the need for immediate search and rescue efforts to save an estimated 2,000 people still stranded at sea, Richard said saving lives, tackling criminal gangs and addressing "root causes" of the exodus are top priorities.

Thousands of traumatized and emaciated men, women and children reached the shores of Indonesia and Malaysia in recent weeks after a crackdown on human trafficking by Thai authorities led to the abandonment of boatloads of migrants.

Most of the passengers, who have come to be referred to as "boat people," were Rohingya Muslims who fled persecution in western Burma's Arakan State, while others were found to be migrants from neighboring Bangladesh.

Nearly all of Burma's estimated 1.1 million Rohingya are denied citizenship and many have lived in apartheid-like conditions since inter-communal riots in 2012 left hundreds dead and about 140,000 confined to displacement camps.

The Burmese government and much of the population do not recognize Rohingya as a distinct ethnic group, calling them "Bengalis" to imply that they are illegal immigrants. Unlivable conditions in Arakan State have been cited by the US State Department as a key driver of the exodus.

Richard said during Wednesday's briefing that northern Arakan State was among the most oppressive environments she had ever seen.

"I went to one community where people were afraid to talk to us," Richard said. "That's just not normal."

At least 25,000 people are believed to have fled from northern Burma and Bangladesh since just the start of this year to seek work or refuge in countries such as Muslim-majority Malaysia, many ending up in the hands of human traffickers.

The early May discovery of mass graves in southern Thailand prompted a crackdown on the trade that led traffickers to abandon their human cargo at sea.

A representative of the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, said on Wednesday that some 2,000 people could still be floating on rickety ships in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. Thousands of others have been brought to shore in neighboring countries that have agreed to shelter them for one year pending resettlement in third countries.

The UNHCR spokesman said registration has been completed for those who arrived in Aceh, Indonesia, including about 1,000 Rohingya refugees and more than 800 Bangladeshi migrants currently being sheltered at five sites. Nearly 350 unaccompanied minors are among those registered with the UNHCR.

Richard said a boat carrying more than 700 people recently found by the Burma Navy will be disembarked on Wednesday morning. The Burmese government has said it will scrutinize the passengers to determine their origins and return them to their places of departure "in accordance with their wishes."

The post Rohingya Need to Be Treated as Burmese Citizens: US appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Burmese Monks Recognized for Interfaith Peace Efforts

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 11:20 PM PDT

U Withudda, U Seindita and U Zawtikka receive their awards in Oslo last week. (Photo: Maung Zarni / Facebook)

U Withudda, U Seindita and U Zawtikka receive their awards in Oslo last week. (Photo: Maung Zarni / Facebook)

RANGOON — The century-old organization known as the Parliament of the World's Religions gave the World Harmony Award to three Buddhist monks from Burma on May 27 in recognition of their efforts to save Muslim lives during the riots of 2013.

The recipients of the interfaith peace award were U Withudda, an abbot at Meiktila's Yadanar Oo Monastery, U Seindita, founder of the Asia Light Foundation in Pyin Oo Lwin, and U Zawtikka, of Rangoon's Oo Yin Priyati Monastery.

U Withudda is credited with risking his own life to save the lives of around 800 Burmese Muslims during the riots in Meiktila. On March 20, 2013, about 40 Muslims arrived at Yadanar Oo Monastery asking for protection from the mobs leading the riots that were spreading through the city. By midnight, the monastery was filled with 800 others, including 300 children.

At around 2am, one of these mobs gathered outside and asked U Withudda to send out those hiding within the monastery.

"I told them, 'I cannot let them out because they will get in trouble,'" U Withudda told The Irrawaddy. "If you want, kill me first so I can save them."

He continued to protect the Muslims inside the monastery for four more days until the situation had stabilized and they could leave safely.

Mg Mg is a 48-year-old man who took shelter in U Withudda's monastery that night. "Because he took care of us, we are still alive," he told The Irrawaddy. "At that time, we were helpless. We could not depend on the help of police or local administrators."

"I want all citizens to live peacefully and to prosper in education and health," U Withudda said. "I hope if the country is at peace, the citizens will be able to have a higher living standard."

The award was presented in Norway during "The Oslo Conference to End Myanmar's Persecution of the Rohingya," a three-day event hosted by the Norwegian Nobel Institute and Voksenaasen Conference Center. Also in attendance at the conference were religious leaders and seven Nobel Peace Laureates, who described the persecution of the Muslim Rohingya as genocide.

The post Burmese Monks Recognized for Interfaith Peace Efforts appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

PLA Military Drills Along Sino-Burmese Border ‘Natural,’ Chinese Envoy Says

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 10:46 PM PDT

Sun Guoxiang, China's Asian affairs envoy, speaks to reporters in Law Khee Lar, Karen State, on Tuesday. (Photo: Hein Htet / The Irrawaddy)

Sun Guoxiang, China's Asian affairs envoy, speaks to reporters in Law Khee Lar, Karen State, on Tuesday. (Photo: Hein Htet / The Irrawaddy)

LAW KHEE LAR, Karen State — A Chinese envoy here observing a summit of ethnic armed groups described his country's live-fire military exercises near its border with northeast Burma as routine, expressing confidence that the activities would not affect Burma's relations with its communist neighbor to the north.

Sun Guoxiang, China's Asian affairs emissary, made the remarks to reporters on Tuesday at a gathering of 19 ethnic armed groups in Law Khee Lar, Karen State, a stronghold of the Karen National Union (KNU) near the Thai-Burma border.

"Our Chinese army exists to protect our country," he said. "By doing the military [exercises], this is natural. We do not intend to fight other countries with this military training."

He said that given the strong ties between the two countries' militaries, the exercises conducted this week would not damage relations between Naypyidaw and Beijing.

The decision by the People's Liberation Army to conduct the live-fire training has raised eyebrows given recent tensions between Burma and China arising from at least two incidents in which the former's armed forces have allowed artillery rounds to stray into the latter's territory.

The Burma Army has been waging a fierce campaign against ethnic Kokang insurgents in northeast Burma since February, and one errant munition killed five Chinese villagers in neighboring Yunnan province on March 13, provoking condemnation from Beijing.

The Burmese government has not commented on the Chinese military exercises being staged this week.

The post PLA Military Drills Along Sino-Burmese Border 'Natural,' Chinese Envoy Says appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

‘Can We Get This Guy up to Naypyidaw Next Time?’

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 10:41 PM PDT

Indian Acid Producers Responsible for ‘Vile’ Attacks: Women’s Leader

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 10:19 PM PDT

Chameli Magar feeds her 16-year-old daughter Sangita, on the bed of a hospital as she undergoes treatment after an unidentified person attacked her with a bottle of acid in Kathmandu, Nepal, on Feb. 22. (Photo: Navesh Chitrakar / Reuters)

Chameli Magar feeds her 16-year-old daughter Sangita, on the bed of a hospital as she undergoes treatment after an unidentified person attacked her with a bottle of acid in Kathmandu, Nepal, on Feb. 22. (Photo: Navesh Chitrakar / Reuters)

NEW DELHI — Bottles of acid are too easily available in India and the makers should take responsibility for the rising number of “vile” acid attacks, the head of India’s National Commission for Women (NCW) has said.

Acid attacks—meant to maim, disfigure or blind—are most common in Cambodia, followed by Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan and India.

Women are the victims of 80 percent of the roughly 1,500 acid attacks reported globally each year, the London-based charity Acid Survivors Trust International says.

“When we talk about laws, we need to look not merely at the people who are throwing acid on others, we need to look at the availability of the acid—those who sell it and manufacturers of the acid which is sold in these little bottles,” NCW chairman Lalita Kumaramangalam said at an event late on Monday.

“Small manufacturers don’t think beyond their sales. They don’t bother about where these bottles end up and how they perhaps could be used,” she said. Acid attacks are “vile” and top the list of heinous crimes, she added.

In India, 349 acid attacks were reported in 2014, up from 116 in 2013 and 106 in 2012, according to research by the charity Acid Survivors Foundation India (ASFI).

Despite a law making acid violence a separate offence with a minimum penalty of 10 years in jail, and a Supreme Court ruling on the regulation and sale of dangerous chemicals, acids are still bought and sold without the required licences.

Locally produced household cleaners, which contain highly concentrated acids, are cheap and plentiful in markets, said Kumaramangalam, speaking at the launch of a new book by ASFI to help those caring for victims.

Anu Mukherjee, who had acid thrown over her by a jealous female colleague, said it pained her to find acid still available in her local market and added that vendors did not know that buyers need a licence to buy it.

Mukherjee, 35, told participants the government needed to enforce laws on acid purchase, speed up lengthy trials and ensure strict punishment for attackers and adequate rehabilitation for victims.

“My whole life has been ruined by the attack. My dreams were shattered,” said Mukherjee, who was a dancer before the attack on her in 2004 left her disfigured and blind.

“Women like me are made to feel ashamed and do not go out as people stare at us or pity us. We want jobs and help to rebuild our lives so we can be like everyone else.”

The post Indian Acid Producers Responsible for 'Vile' Attacks: Women’s Leader appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Over 400 Still Missing From Capsized Cruise Ship in China

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 09:48 PM PDT

An aerial view shows rescue workers searching on the sunken ship at Jianli section of Yangtze River in Hubei province, China, on June 2, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

An aerial view shows rescue workers searching on the sunken ship at Jianli section of Yangtze River in Hubei province, China, on June 2, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

JIANLI, China — Hopes dimmed Wednesday for rescuing more than 400 people still trapped aboard a capsized river cruise ship that overturned in stormy weather about 36 hours earlier, as hundreds of rescuers searched the Yangtze River site in what could become the deadliest Chinese maritime accident in decades.

Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported that 13 bodies had been pulled from the boat, which was floating with a sliver of its hull jutting from the gray river water. A total of 14 people have been rescued, but the vast majority of the 456 people on board, many of them elderly tourists, were unaccounted for.

The Eastern Star was traveling upstream Monday night from the eastern city of Nanjing to the southwestern city of Chongqing when it overturned in China's Hubei province in what state media reported as a cyclone with winds of up to 80 mph (130 kph).

State media reported that rescuers heard people yelling for help within the overturned hull, and divers rescued a 65-year-old woman and, later, two men who had been trapped. CCTV said more people had been found and were being rescued, but did not say whether they were still inside the overturned hull.

The yelling was heard Tuesday, and it is not known if any sounds were heard Wednesday. CCTV said rescuers would possibly support the ship with a giant crane while they cut into portions of the hull.

Access to the site was blocked by police and paramilitary troops stationed along the Yangtze river embankment. Scores of trucks belonging to the People's Armed Police were parked along the verge and at least two ambulances were seeing leaving the area with their lights on and sirens blaring.

Huang Delong, a deck hand on a car ferry crossing the Yangtze several miles upstream of the site, said he was working Monday evening when the weather turned nasty.

"From about 9 pm it began raining extremely hard, then the cyclone hit and the wind was really terrifying," Huang said while crossing the broad river in a steady drizzle Tuesday afternoon.

Huang said he thought it was the worst disaster on that stretch of the river—the world's third-longest river—in living memory. The official Xinhua News Agency said the sinking could become the country's worst shipping accident in seven decades.

"We will do everything we can to rescue everyone trapped in there, no matter they're still alive or not, and we will treat them as our own families," Hubei military region commander Chen Shoumin said at a news conference shown live on CCTV.

The survivors included the ship's captain and chief engineer, both of whom were taken into police custody, CCTV said. Relatives who gathered in Shanghai, where many of the tourists started their journey by bus, questioned whether the captain did enough to ensure the passengers' safety and demanded answers from local officials in unruly scenes that drew a heavy police response.

Xinhua quoted the captain and the chief engineer as saying the four-level Eastern Star sank quickly. The Communist Party-run People's Daily said the ship sank within two minutes.

Tour guide Zhang Hui said in an interview with the state-run Xinhua News Agency from his hospital bed that he grabbed a life jacket with seconds to spare as the ship listed in the storm, sending bottles rolling off tables and suddenly turned all the way over.

Zhang, 43, said he drifted in the Yangtze all night despite not being able to swim, reaching shore as dawn approached.

"The raindrops hitting my face felt like hailstones," he said. "'Just hang in there a little longer,' I told myself."

Some survivors swam ashore, but others were rescued after search teams climbed on the upside-down hull.

Thirteen navy divers were on the scene and 170 more were joining them, Chen said.

The 65-year-old woman was rescued by divers who took an extra breathing apparatus up into the bowels of the ship and spent about five minutes teaching her how to use it before bringing her out to safety, Chen said.

"That old woman had a very strong will and learned very fast, and after 20 minutes she surfaced to the water and was rescued," he said.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang traveled to the accident site about 180 kilometers (110 miles) west of the Hubei provincial capital of Wuhan.

At a late-night meeting, Li demanded an "overnight battle," urging divers to keep combing ship compartments for more miracles, Xinhua reported.

The overturned ship had drifted almost 2 miles downstream before coming to rest close to shore.

State media originally said there were 458 people on board, but CCTV said Wednesday it had been carrying 405 Chinese passengers, five travel agency employees and a crew of 46. The broadcaster said most of the passengers were 50 to 80 years old.

Passengers' relatives gathered in Shanghai at a travel agency that had booked many of the trips, and later went to a government office to demand more information about the accident before police broke up the gatherings.

A group of about a dozen retirees from a Shanghai bus company were on the trip, said a woman who identified herself only by her surname, Chen. Among them, she said, were her older sister and brother-in-law, both 60, and their 6-year-old granddaughter.

"This group has traveled together a lot, but only on short trips. This is the first time they traveled for a long trip," Chen said.

The Eastern Star was 251 feet long and 36 feet wide, and could carry a maximum of 534 people, CCTV reported. It is owned by the Chongqing Eastern Shipping Corp., which focuses on tourism routes in the popular Three Gorges river canyon region. The company could not be reached for comment.

The post Over 400 Still Missing From Capsized Cruise Ship in China appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Rohingya Huddled in Bangladesh Camps Fear Plan to Move Them On

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 09:21 PM PDT

Children stand near camps housing Rohingya refugees on hills in Kutupalong May 31, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

Children stand near camps housing Rohingya refugees on hills in Kutupalong May 31, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

KUTUPALONG, Bangladesh — More than 20 years after the first wave of Rohingya Muslims fled Burma, fear is spreading through the sweltering camps of mud houses where they found shelter in southern Bangladesh that they will soon be on the move again.

The refugees worry the Bangladesh government wants them out of sight, perhaps to one of its islands in the Bay of Bengal, as the two countries row over what to do with a stateless minority whose search for security is driving a regional migrant crisis.

"This is home for us now, it is peaceful here," said Nur Alam, who crossed the Naf river that separates the two countries in a tiny boat in 1991. "We are not sure we will be safe elsewhere."

About 33,000 men, women and children live crammed into two dilapidated camps in the villages of Kutupalong and Nayapara, near the Burma border, that are supported by the United Nations and the Bangladesh government. They are the lucky ones.

There are anywhere from 200,000 to 400,000 more Rohingya in nearby camps and hills whom the government will not even recognize as temporary refugees lest it weaken its case to send them back to Burma, where they say they face persecution.

H.T.Imam, political adviser to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, said the presence of so many foreigners without proper identity documents or work was causing problems for local people and hindering development.

"The Rohingya are the citizens of Myanmar [Burma]and they must go back," he said. "We feel for them, but we are unable to host them any longer."

International focus on the festering plight of the Rohingya has sharpened in recent weeks as more than 4,000 migrants have washed up in rickety boats on the shores of Southeast Asia.

The migrants, mostly Rohingya but also Bangladeshis escaping poverty, were abandoned at sea by people smugglers after Thailand launched a crackdown on gangs trafficking their human cargo across its southern border with Malaysia.

Not Welcome

Bangladesh, one of the world's most densely populated countries of 160 million people, is concerned that if it kept accepting fellow Muslims from Burma it would only encourage the flow across its border.

Burma does not recognize its estimated 1.1 million Rohingya population as citizens, even though many have lived for generations in its western Arakan State. The government refers to them as "Bengalis" and considers them illegal immigrants.

Mohammad Shah Kamal, secretary to Bangladesh's ministry of disaster management and relief, said he had proposed finding alternative space for the camps, but the land ministry could not find any.

Local media have reported that the government was considering moving the two camps to Hatiya island, several hours journey away by bus and boat.

A government official said Hasina had told a recent meeting that the camps were hindering tourism in nearby Cox's Bazar, which boasts the world's longest unbroken beach.

Hasina suggested officials look for an uninhabited stretch of land near a river bed to accommodate the camps, the official who was present at the meeting said, requesting anonymity.

The UN's refugee agency, the UNHCR, said it had not been consulted about any proposal to relocate the camps.

"We hope that if any move takes place, it will be carried out in a dignified manner. The success of any relocation will depend on the refugees' perception of living conditions at the new location," said UNHCR spokeswoman Onchita Shadman.

Inside the Camp

Nur Alam, looking much older than his 43 years, is worried about more than just the plans to move the refugees.

One of his seven children is not registered because he was born to a second wife, and he fears he would have to leave the 11-year-old boy behind when the rest of the family move.

The children played around the small and sparse hut at the edge of the unmarked camp which is closed to outsiders. The refugees are not supposed to go out and mix with locals.

His wife Rupban, 35, sat in the doorway, so small it was necessary to almost crawl to enter the dwelling.

"We don't want to move again," she said firmly.

Nur Alam's family live off the rations provided by the aid agencies. There is little else to do.

Even so, Ruhul Amin, 43, who crossed over from Burma seven years ago, is desperate to be listed as one of the documented refugees and live inside the camp, where soap and other basics are handed out and children attend classes.

Instead, he and his family of eight live in a hillside shack, scraping by on whatever he can earn as a day laborer.

He might make 250 Bangladesh taka (US$3.22) a day, he said, half what a local would be paid. Sometimes they get alms during religious holidays.

"We have no choice," he said. "If the authorities tell us to move, we will move. But we can't go back to Myanmar."

In recent months the local mood has hardened against the Rohingya, in part because they are blamed for encouraging poor Bangladeshis to join the thousands making the perilous journey abroad.

"They are the pioneers in these boat crossings to Malaysia," said Kutupalong village official Ahmad. "They started going first, then they have been telling our youth to move because of commissions they receive."

The post Rohingya Huddled in Bangladesh Camps Fear Plan to Move Them On appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

‘Farmers Need to Know Their Rights’

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 09:01 PM PDT

Ma Thandar, activist with the Democracy and Peace Women's Network and a recipient of the 2014 UNDP-sponsored N-Peace Award, which honors women peace-builders in Asia. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

Ma Thandar, activist with the Democracy and Peace Women's Network and a recipient of the 2014 UNDP-sponsored N-Peace Award, which honors women peace-builders in Asia. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

The Democracy and Peace Women Network (DPW)performs awareness-raising programs for farmers to obtain knowledge about land laws approved by Parliament last year. Among the organization's leadership is current political prisoner Naw Ohn Hla, recently sentenced to more than four years in prison for her role in protesting the Letpadaung copper mining project. Ma Thandar, secretary of the DPW and also the wife of late journalist Par Gyi, spoke with The Irrawaddy from a village in Myaungmya Township about the challenges faced by farmers and the DPW Network's training programs around the country.

Who is funding DPW's awareness trainings for farmers to better understand recent land laws?

The US-based AJWS [American Jewish World Service] is supporting us by funding land law awareness workshops for farmers. Before this, we had funded our activities on our own since 2013. It's now been one year that we've been working with AJWS. They normally provide financial support for 50 farmers to attend each of these trainings, of which there will be 10 per year. But actually, the number of farmers who attended the workshops was more than 50—we couldn't limit these people. Normally, more than 150 to 200 farmers came to each workshop, so we had to cut some costs so that we could include everyone. For example, if we had a budget of 1,500 kyat per meal per person, we had to discuss the amount with the residents and ask them to cook enough for all of the participants.

How many workshops will DPW hold in 2015?

Actually, the budget already finished as of April 30. Ten seminars were completed last year. The new budget is going to start in August of this year.

As you travel around the country and talk with farmers, what problems do they most commonly speak of?

They have totally different problems in different places. For example, in Eainme Township in the Irrawaddy Delta, farmers are facing difficulties paying back their mortgages. They borrowed money from wealthy people who they are unable to pay back later, so they lose their land. This means that land is being confiscated by other residents, and not necessarily by the government. We've been providing awareness about this in the townships of Wah Kema, Pantanaw and Nyaungdon in the Irrawaddy Delta region.

What are your target areas for the land law workshops?

There are three major target areas including Irrawaddy, Bago and Magwe divisions. These will continue to be the main areas for us for next year, too. But we will also include other areas like Kayin and Mon states and Sagaing Division.

What type of research is DPW engaged in?

Next year, members of DPW trained by international experts will conduct a survey funded by AJWS. We will have to do research to see how farmers' voices can support the amendments of land laws in coming years. Early last year, DPW submitted some points to Parliament about amending the land laws, but are still waiting for the result.

What projects would you like to undertake in the future?

We want to advocate for and work with women farmers in villages. We would like to show them how to manage money and income. We would like to educate women on land law and regulations, as well as on the dangers of mortgages. But the problem is that we don't have a big enough budget to do this project yet. We have discussed researching it and working on a development plan with our donors.

How many members do you now have in DPW?

In total, there are 500 members in DPW. But only executive members are running these development projects.

What challenges have you faced in dealing with local authorities, particularly while conducting workshops in rural areas?

We've been harassed by the local authorities while conducting seminars in villages. For example, police cars and some security vehicles were parked in front of the places where DPW planned to deliver workshops. Farmers wouldn't come to the venue once they saw the police cars there. But we are discussing laws in these seminars; these laws are not illegal under the government. I feel like the authorities are attempting to infringe on the farmers' right to know. It seems that they are afraid for farmers to understand anything about land law.

In your experience, what do farmers know about the recent land laws approved by the Parliament?

They don't know what the land laws are. Most farmers haven't seen the land law book issued by the government. Actually, this is totally the responsibility of the government: to help farmers gain knowledge about land policy. So I asked farmers whether they had heard or seen any information about this, and they said no, they had not. That's why we're doing our best to educate them about it. Farmers need to know their rights. Then they can do more to help their country's economy to develop. If the government doesn't want farmers to know about this, it is obvious that this government doesn't want their country to develop in the future.

The post ‘Farmers Need to Know Their Rights’ appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Chronic Dropouts, Dire Conditions in Mon Schools: Report

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 05:00 PM PDT

High school children leaving a school run by the Mon National Education Committee, in an area controlled by the Mon National Liberation Army. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

High school children leaving a school run by the Mon National Education Committee, in an area controlled by the Mon National Liberation Army. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Education in rural Mon areas remains inaccessible for children from poor families and village schools are chronically under-resourced, according to a report released on Tuesday by the research arm of the Human Rights Foundation of Monland (HURFOM).

The Women and Child Rights Project's (WCRP) findings, focused around education dropout rates and resource constraints, highlight the significant challenges faced by students and teachers in rural Mon areas.

"We wanted to know why children keep dropping out of school," said Min Banyar Oo, HURFOM's program assistant. "We've found that those that drop out have parents who find it difficult to support themselves and the schools themselves do not have sufficient resources. These areas often used to be conflict zones."

The report interviewed close to 150 people from Mon village communities across Ye Township in Mon State, Kyainseikgyi Township in Karen State and Yebyu Township in Tenasserim Division. Researchers documented the challenges faced by students and teachers in government basic education schools, Mon national schools run by the Mon National Education Committee (MNEC), and 'mixed' schools run by both but with a predominant role given to the Ministry of Education.

Of the 88 children to drop out of education interviewed by the project, more that three quarters said that their main reason for leaving school was family economic difficulties. Over a third dropped out before completing primary school, and of the 23 schools surveyed, around two-thirds said they were struggling with insufficient education materials and teaching staff.

"While MNEC schools suffered the greatest deficiencies, significant problems were also noted in government-led schools," the report said.

The WCRP has urged the Burmese government to increase education spending, and the New Mon State Party to develop an education reform policy in concern with the MNEC. The group also recommended that ethnic armed groups and the Burmese government incorporate education reform discussions into the peace process, in recognition of barriers to education in former conflict zones.

The post Chronic Dropouts, Dire Conditions in Mon Schools: Report appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

National News

National News


Ethnic military leaders urged to sign ceasefire accord

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 08:27 PM PDT

Leaders of armed ethnic groups meeting yesterday to debate the closing stages of the national ceasefire process were urged to lay down their arms and take up political negotiations.

Ethnic politicians urge president to go further

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 08:25 PM PDT

Ethnic politicians yesterday urged President U Thein Sein to go beyond his latest proposals to amend sections of the constitution to establish a genuine federal state.

Voter lists incomplete, say absent MPs

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 08:24 PM PDT

Yangon Region electoral officials are scrambling to correct voters' lists that contain some surprising omissions. U Kyaw, Yangon Region MP for Thingangyun township, says his name is not on the list.

Obama urges an end to discrimination

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 08:18 PM PDT

US President Barack Obama has urged Myanmar to end its discrimination against the Rohingya minority as key part of its democratic transition, while US officials called for a detained boat believed to be carrying more than 700 trafficking victims to be allowed to land.

Nationalists warn government against hosting boat migrants

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 08:15 PM PDT

Over 700 people set to disembark from smugglers boats in Rakhine State today are raising alarm among nationalist groups.

Writer, activist jailed for two years for ‘insulting religion’

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 08:01 PM PDT

A writer and opposition activist was claiming victory yesterday even as a judge sent him to prison for two years with hard labour on a charge of insulting religion in a literary talk.

Monastic school to offer university classes

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 08:00 PM PDT

Phaung Daw Oo monastic school in Mandalay plans to offer a university-level education for teachers and students of monastic schools throughout Myanmar, according to its teaching director.

Villagers afraid to break silence over militia murder allegations

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 07:54 PM PDT

A civilian found dead in the kitchen of a Kayan National Guard soldier is the third victim connected to the militia in the last three months.

Traffic and staff shortages stall licence testing department

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 07:50 PM PDT

Traffic congestion and lack of human resources push licensing department to abandon practical driving tests, while only one-third pass theory exams.

New cabbies struggle to get to grips with Yangon streets

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 07:49 PM PDT

Taxi drivers from out of town are lost in Yangon, exasperated passengers are complaining.

Shan Herald Agency for News

Shan Herald Agency for News


Speech at Opening of Ethnic Armed Organization Summit

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 11:39 PM PDT

2 June 2015
Distinguished Leaders of the Ethnic Armed Organizations, Respected NCCT members and delegates.
Dear friends.

I am honored to be invited here today at the Ethnic Armed Organizations summit in Lokhilar. It is a pleasure and privilege to visit Karen State at this time. I was last at the Ethnic Armed Organization Summit with you in Laiza.


I speak on behalf of my colleague, Mariann and myself to say we are deeply honored that we have been invited to observe the peace dialogue between the UPWC and NCCT as well as internal deliberations on both sides. I know how much work you have all put together during the past two years and how long a road you have traversed through the decades in order to reach this point. We have been deeply impressed with the commitment and hard work shown by the NCCT and TAT members. They are all proud members of your groups and their work and results of a draft NCA deserve your trust and support.

Which is why I am today giving you an urgent and direct message. I shall be more direct than at our previous meetings, because I strongly feel that at the current stage, there is not much time left to capitalize on the work you have done so diligently for so long. I will explain why I feel this is so critical and urgent.

When we entered this process it was with the intention of opening up space for ethnic groups so that they could take their rightful place at the center of national politics together with other important players. The fighting between ethnic groups and government have been going on for far too long and as a consequence the ethnic groups have remained excluded and disenfranchised in Myanmar for far too long. We all know there is no military solution to the conflict in Myanmar. The only way forward is through a political dialogue that will give everyone a voice and space to work for their political rights. The Nationwide Ceasefire is only the first step and real trust and progress can only be made through implementing a ceasefire together as well as starting a credible political dialogue. This have to be done hand in hand with other stakeholders in the country. We believe that this process has taken its first fragile steps and there is a good chance that a better future for all may emerge from this process.

But the bigger picture cannot be lost sight of. Myanmar still has a long way to go to reach its stated democratic goals. Decades of military rule have left deep scars and challenges in development as well as capacity. Handling these issues in a holistic manner can only happen if the transition is peaceful. The success of reforms in Myanmar will depend on a sustained peace in the country. Every transition is deeply difficult and fraught with setbacks, but we cannot wait until everything is perfect. We cannot allow the best to become the enemy of the good. If we do that we may get neither peace nor democracy.

The simple point is that the future of Myanmar rests in your hands. A huge and important responsibility rests upon you all today, not only to make the choices based on what you will regard as the best possible outcome for your respective groups individually but for all of you collectively. As responsible leaders, you have already taken a strategic decision to walk down a road of a common destiny for all of you. You do not as yet have all the details of the road you will traverse or a guarantee of when you will reach all your goals but you have a reasonably good blueprint to start with.

I shall also be abrupt and say we do not know what will happen after the elections. We do not know what the country will look like a year from now.

We must be optimistic, but at the same time sitting back and hoping for better opportunities may be risky. It may also diminish the opportunity for you as leaders of the ethnic groups to be at the center of this political transition.   We at the UN do see the ethnic minorities as potentially playing a major role in the power equation of a new Myanmar.

Clearly there are risks in any transition. The current government has made some promises that have long been asked for by ethnic groups as well as by the international community. Only by starting the process of a political dialogue can we begin to see if these promises can be delivered. If the process can be started before the elections and with the support of the international community, I feel there is a greater possibility to ensure that  a succeeding government after the election to be willing to commit to it.

But for all this to happen, time is of the essence.

As of now there may not be much time for a lengthy process before the elections. Signing an NCA and establishing a political dialogue may serve as a stabilizing factor. It is critical that we get such a process started as soon as possible.

For this to happen you will require to make some concessions. You will require to move forward even while there may continue to be fighting in some areas. But my hope is that you will be able to create a forceful dynamic that will help you deal with the challenges that remain. More than that, I will say that even if there will be many risks in this approach, they are still less than the risks of delay and of missing this opportunity

So I will ask you above all to keep your courage.  And also to remember that you are doing this for your own people. Your people, especially your youth and children depend on you to bring them a better quality of life for the future. Only hen will the sacrifices of your forefathers have been worth it.

The UN will lend you all the support we can muster in this process. However, if such a process were to be delayed until after the elections, even we may not be able to say with certainty what the scenario from the UN angle will be. But nailing it down now, could bring greater immediate commitment from the UN as well as the international community.

Many negative voices are heard about the peace process.  Around the world we have seen peace processes carry on miserably for decades on end and cause frustration and disappointments. In Myanmar you have managed to come so, far in a such a small time, with so many stakeholders in the process. This is amazing by any standard. Let me assure you that I am proud to be here as an Observer at your peace talks.

But you need to take one more, brave leap of faith as the Secretary-General himself has told you.

I hope this meeting will help you move forward in this leap of faith.

Thank you.

UKRAINE-RUSSIA CONFLICT: A timeline of major events following the protests in Ukraine starting from December 2013

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 11:30 PM PDT

November 21, 2013
The Ukrainian government ends preparations for the signing of an Association Agreement (AA) and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the European Union.
Map of Ukraine
Map of Ukraine
December 1, 2013
Massive protests takes place in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev, with thousands of protesters occupying or blockading government buildings and demanding the resignation of President Victor Yanukovych, the Prime Minister, and the Cabinet.

December 16, 2013
Russia announces that it will provide Ukraine with $15 billion in badly-needed loans in an effort to keep its moribund economy afloat, following meetings between top Russia and Ukrainian officials at the Kremlin, Presidents Vladimir Putin and Viktor Yanukovych.

February 18 – 20,  2014
Thousands of protesters clash with police in Kiev in Ukraine's bloodiest 48 hours since World War II. Some 88 people killed and hundreds more wounded as protesters march on the Ukrainian Parliament, or Rada, and security forces attempt to clear out Independence Square.
Presidents Vladimir Putin and Viktor Yanukovych.(Photo by AP)
Presidents Vladimir Putin and Viktor Yanukovych.(Photo by AP)
February 21, 2014
Yanukovych and opposition sign settlement agreement to end the crisis. It is mediated by Russia, France, Germany, and Poland, though Russia initially decline sign the document. Accordingly, early presidential elections will take place by the end of the year, a national unity government will be created by early March, and Ukraine will return to its 2004 constitution.
President Viktor Yanukovych flees Kiev, following the signing of a settlement agreement.

February 28, 2014
Several hundred unidentified armed men, confirmed later to be Russian forces,  in military uniforms carrying military weapons take control of strategic facilities, the airport in Simferopol and a military airport in Sevastopol.

March 6, 2014
In a quick vote held behind closed doors, the regional Parliament of Crimea  votes to secede from Ukraine and join Russia.

March 11, 2014
The Crimean parliament declares Crimea independent from Ukraine. It also affirms that it will ask to join Russia if the population votes in favor of such a move in the upcoming referendum.

March 16, 2014
According to the Crimean Electoral Commission, with over 75 percent of ballots counted this evening, 95.7 percent of voters favors a return to union with Russia. Only 3.2 percent favors a return to autonomous status within Ukraine.

March 18, 2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Crimean Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov, the Head of the Crimean State Council, Vladimir Konstantinov, and Mayor of Sevastopol Alexey Chaly sign a treaty that reunifies Crimea with Russia.

April 7, 2014
Pro-Russian separatists today continue to control governmental buildings in Donetsk and Luhansk. Earlier, pro-Russian activists in Donetsk proclaim region's independence from Ukraine, and the creation of the "Donetsk People's Republic." They also set May 11 as a date for a referendum on that would allow the region to become part of the Russian Federation.

May 11, 2014
The Donetsk and Luhansk "People's Republics" declare independence after referendums. They  are hailed as a victory by pro-Russian secessionists and criticized as farce by their Ukrainian and Western counterparts.
President Petro Poroshenko
President Petro Poroshenko
May 25, 2014
Petro Poroshenko will be the next President of Ukraine, according to early polling results from today's historic election. Reports of the preliminary exit polling figures show Poroshenko winning approximately 55-57 percent of the vote, well above the absolute majority necessary to avoid a presidential runoff election.

June 27, 2014
President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine signs a landmark trade deal,  Association Agreement with the European Union, Viktor Yanukovych's refusal to sign the deal sparked the original protests in Kiev in late 2013.

July 29, 2014
The EU agrees to enact broad sanctions that will target key sectors of the Russian economy. According to a pair of EU diplomats, the sanctions will include "an arms embargo, a ban on the sale of dual use and sensitive technologies, and a ban on the sale of bonds and equities by state-owned Russian banks in European capital markets."

September 4, 2014
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko expresses "careful optimism" that a bilateral ceasefire between the Ukrainian military and pro-Russian separatist forces could come as early as tomorrow following talks in Minsk, Belarus. According to Poroshenko, a ceasefire would lay a foundation for a "stage-by-stage peace plan" for Ukraine. Russia, importantly, will not be party to the negotiations, despite President Putin laying out a ceasefire plan just a day ago.

September 5, 2014
Following meetings in Minsk, Belarus, between representatives of the Ukrainian government and the pro-Russian separatist forces, President Petro Poroshenko announced that a ceasefire has been reached in Ukraine.

January 22, 2015
Ukrainian military officials withdraw volunteer elements from the terminal of Donetsk Airport under the combined pressures of shelling by rebels and dense fog.

January 23, 2015
Having reclaimed control over the Donetsk Airport after weeks of intense fighting with Ukrainian forces, leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic Alexander Zakharchenko  declares that his administration would no longer participate in ceasefire talks  and affirmed his intention to "push the front right up to the borders of Donetsk region" as part of a revitalized rebel offensive.

January 30, 2015
A round of peace talks scheduled to take place in Minsk today cancelled. According to a statement from rebel leader Denis Pushilin, the talks were cancelled due to the unwillingness of representatives from Keiv to attend. However, Ukrainian representative lays the blame for the cancellation squarely on the rebels, who they said undertook a "cynical terrorist act" intended to disrupt the peace talks.
Denis Pushilin
Denis Pushilin
February 2, 2015
According to multiple reports, "active and comprehensive discussions" are ongoing within the White House regarding the possibility of lethal US military assistance to Ukraine. Until recently, the Obama administration has balked at the disbursement of lethal aid, focusing instead on a policy centered on increasing economic pressure on Russia through the imposition of sanctions.

February 5, 2015
EU leaders today renew efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine. During  surprise visits  to Kiev today and to Moscow on Friday French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are expected to present a new peace plan to the Ukrainian and Russian leadership, aiming to establish common ground for the swift resolution of the conflict.

February 12, 2015
After negotiations in Minsk, Belarus, that lasted through the night, the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France have reached a new ceasefire agreement, potentially ending the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The agreement, which came after 16 hours of talks, lays out a plan for a total ceasefire in the coming days, as well as a longer term plan that addresses broader political concerns by the end of 2015.

March 2,  2015
The United Nations said that fighting in eastern Ukraine that began almost a year ago has resulted in the death of more than 6,000 people, in what is described as "merciless devastation of civilian lives and infrastructure" and possible crimes against humanity.
Compiled by Sai Wansai from various media sources (2 June 2015)

Regional Powers Involvement in Ethnic Conflict: Ukraine and Burma

Posted: 02 Jun 2015 08:11 PM PDT

The paradigm of "secession as an ethnic conflict resolution" rears its head again, as United Wa State Army (UWSA) asked for sympathy and endorsement for its aspiration of state-level administration, during the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) leaders' summit meeting at Panghsang from 1 to to 6 May.
newspictures_saiwansai
The Wa were not even asking for secession from the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, but merely an upgrade from Wa Self-Administrative Division to a state-level status within the union, but the alarm and disapproval followed immediately from the government and as well, from Shan State politicians and resistance armies.

Hkun Htun Oo has openly shown his displeasure and angst for the Wa's state-level status aspirations, which would be carved out of Shan State territory, if approved and granted by the government.

In The Irrawaddy report of 6 May, Hkun Htun Oo, Chairman of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), regarding the Wa's state-level status aspiration drive, said " The situation now is already out of hand. I want to make one thing clear and that is not to become like Crimea. The recent situation is that the government doesn't have political power influence. It is affecting the regime's three guiding principles. Infringement of sovereignty shouldn't exist. All should know what will happen, if a place where government political power influence could not be reached is given a national state status ".

The Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) and Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA) both participants of the Panghsang summit meeting were tight-lipped and would only say that they have nothing to comment and neither endorse nor reject the Wa aspirations. The Shans, who call themselves "Tai" and the majority ethnic group within Shan State, were taken aback by the Wa's demand for they consider Wa inhabited areas are part of Shan State and shouldn't be dismembered in any way.

Still the outrage and rejection of The Global New Light of Myanmar's opinion piece, on 20 May, titled, " Outcome of Pang Seng conference and the true identity of UWSA ", which is owned by the government and is seen as its mouthpiece, is surprising, given that all five out of six self-administrative areas are cut out of Shan State and naturally, many Shan patriots and politicians see this as the regime's ploy to undercut " Shan nationalism" and subdue political influence of the Shan as a whole. It writes:

" In careful analysis of the behavior of the UWSA, it is quite evident that they are out of Central government control and with the expansion of their troop strength, antagonist characteristics became obvious. It can be concluded that whatever they have been saying about non-secession from the union their true intention is the opposite. It is plainly simple that they have been on the path towards secession from the union for the whole time."

" Civil administrative positions are being taken by ethnic Chinese and local culture is being swallowed and overwhelmed by the Chinese one. Official language is Chinese and circulating money is Chinese Renminbi (Yuan) while local dialect and literature are also becoming Chinese."
" Now is the time to monitor if they all are real ethnic Wa tribesmen or if they are (Chinese) people pretending to be (Was) and trying to use Wa image for their own selfish interests. UWSA is known to be running weapons manufacturing factories and also in possession of anti aircraft missile. News reports also indicated that they are in the possession of helicopters and armoured cars with the help of their friends across the border. Their army is reported to have a force of 30,000 troops with another 10,000 in reserve."
This hysteria and angst atmosphere are compounded by the Kokang armed conflict and make the already decaying trust between the Burman-dominated military regime, which is said to be working to achieve national reconciliation, and non-Burman ethnic nationalities.
The Kokang conflict that has started in earnest in early February this year, when the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), also known as Kokang group, headed by Peng Jiasheng made a forceful comeback. He and his army were driven out by the then military government of State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and replace him with his former deputy, in 2009, to lead the Kokang Self-Administrative Zone. His homecoming or reclaiming back the authority, according to Peng's interpretation, was met with Burma Army (BA's) all-out military offensive that continues until today.
But the problem becomes more sophisticated with the Kokangnese appealing to the Chinese brethren across the border and international Chinese communities to come to their aid, which they clearly see it as an act of "ethnic cleansing" meted out against the population by the BA military onslaught.
Reportedly, many Chinese social network publications responded with moral backing and sympathy, mainly the Chinese from China and international Chinese communities to a lesser extent, that has complicated the already precarious situation. Some interpret the recent Chinese military drill, with live ammunition, opposite Kokang area across the border in Yunnan province, as an indication of yielding to the Chinese public uproar on the issue, apart from the security concern of the Chinese population along the Burma-China border.
The ongoing military offensives of the Burma Army starting from February of this year fails to dislodge the MNDAA until today, due to the Chinese support, directly or indirectly, according to the accusation from the Burmese government quarters, which is categorically denied by China.
As the Wa and Kokang situation is being compared to Crimea annexation of Russia and the ongoing war waged in eastern Ukraine since early 2014, with ethnic Russians from Ukraine and Russian armed forces on one side and the Ukrainian government troops on the other, it would make sense to look into both settings of conflict, if any generalization could be drawn to resolve this kind of conflict.

Historical Background of Ukraine-Russia Conflict
The ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict and the internal Ukrainian and ethnic Russian ethnic conflict that we are seeing today stems from a deadly famine that Stalin engineered back in 1932. According to Andrea Chalupa, posting in Time, on 17 December 2013, " East Ukraine was once as nationalistic and Ukrainian-speaking as Western Ukraine is today. The dramatic transformation of the area was a result of ethnic cleansing. In 1932 a famine engineered by Stalin killed up to an estimated 10 million people, mostly in East Ukraine. Beginning in 1933, the Soviets replaced them with millions of deported Russians. Western Ukraine was then part of Poland and spared. Raphael Lemkin, who first coined the word genocide, used the Ukrainian famine as an example."
Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union until 1991. The country is roughly divided between pro-Russian East and pro-European West. The internal Ukrainian crisis started when in November 2013, President Viktor Yanukovych rejected a deal for greater integration with the European Union, sparking mass protests. Consequently, Yanukovych attempted to put down the protests violently. Ever since the start of this Ukrainian crisis, the United States and European Union supported the protesters, while Yanukovych was backed by the Russian.
In February 2014, anti-government protests toppled the government and Yanukovych fled the country. By the end of February, Russia invaded Crimea and the following month annexed it into the Russian Federation. In April, pro-Russia separatist rebels began seizing territory in eastern Ukraine.
The Ukrainian government launched a military counter-offensive against the ethnic Russian rebels, that had led to the ongoing War in Donbass. From late 2014, cities outside of the Donbass combat zone, such as Kharkiv, Odessa, Kiev and Mariupol were struck by bombings that targeted pro-Ukrainian unity organizations.
According to Amnesty International report, on 22 May 2015, sustained fighting erupted in eastern Ukraine that summer, amidst compelling evidence of Russian military involvement. The intensity of the fighting has ebbed and flowed since that time. To date, more than 6,200 people have been killed as a result of the conflict; over a million have been displaced—some fleeing to neighboring countries—and tens of thousands of civilian homes have been damaged or destroyed.
A ceasefire agreement between the Ukrainian government and the separatists was reached on 5 September 2014 at negotiations in Minsk, Belarus; it reduced but did not stop the fighting. Additional protocols, aimed at ensuring the implementation of the cease-fire, were signed later, but these have also failed to put an end to hostilities.
Most recently, on 11 February 2015, the "Minsk II" protocol was signed by Ukraine, Russia, separatists and the OSCE. Although its provisions have not been fully implemented, it has, to date, significantly reduced the intensity of the fighting. Nonetheless, armed clashes continue in some areas, and many fear that more intense fighting could recommence at any time.
Crimea annexation and war in Donbass
The geographically, and strategically important peninsula, Crimea, in the Black Sea has been fought over for centuries. While the world considered Crimea a region of Ukraine that is under hostile Russian occupation, Russia sees it as a rightful and historical region of Russian territory that it helps to liberate.

With the internationally recognized Ukrainian territory of Crimea's annexation on 18 March 2014, Russia has de facto administered the territory as two federal subjects—the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol within the Crimean Federal District. The political crisis surrounding the annexation is referred to as the Crimean Crisis.

From the beginning of March 2014, demonstrations by pro-Russian and anti-government groups took place in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, together commonly called the "Donbass", in the aftermath of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution or the Euromaidan movement.

The anti-government chain of protests that bloomed into the entire crisis, which begun on 21 November 2013, in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev is dubbed "Euromaidan". It is called "Euromaidan" because they were about demanding closer European integration and happened in Kiev's Maidan Nezalezhnosti, also known as Independence Square.

According to Wikipedia, these demonstrations, following the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation were part of a wider group of concurrent pro-Russian protests across southern and eastern Ukraine, escalated in April 2014 into a war between the separatist forces of the self-declared Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR respectively), and the Ukrainian government.

Amidst the ongoing war, the separatist republics held internationally unrecognized referendums on the status of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts on 11 May 2014. These referendums, viewed as illegal by Ukraine and undemocratic by the international community, returned a result in favor of autonomy from Ukraine. Fighting continued through 2014, and into 2015, despite several attempts to implement a ceasefire. Ukraine and most of the international community said that Russia provided both material and military support to the separatists, who were largely led by Russian citizens until August 2014.

Conflict dimension and Russian-speakers of Ukraine
While the massive Russian intervention on the side of ethnic Russians in Ukraine seems to be the main cause of ongoing ethnic armed conflict, the secession or more equitable, power-sharing federalism movements in Donbass of ethnic Russians, on the heels of the Crimea annexation to Russian federation, were helped and empowered by the Russian Federation. Another point is that the geopolitical concern of Ukraine membership of EU might eventually become NATO member, which is highly unfeasible in the short run, but highly troubling and unacceptable for Russia. Besides, the justification of Russian's intervention is due to the President Vladimir Putin's expansive new concept of "Novorossiya", which covers a large swath of territory conquered by Imperial Russia during the 18th century from a declining Ottoman Empire. This historic Novorossiya covered roughly a third of what is now Ukraine, including Crimea.

Since declaring independence in 1991, Ukraine has been divided, and the Ukraine crisis is an extension of this diversity. Most consider that this division is rooted in language. About two-thirds of Ukrainians speak Ukrainian as their native language, mostly in the country's west; and about a third are native Russian-speakers, mostly in the east. But the language divide is not a comprehensive explanation for there are much more complicated political and ideological division that are involved. In short, those in the west of Ukraine see themselves as European and want to be part of EU, while the eastern half is sympathetic to Russia and see that their countries are historically linked.

Burma's armed conflict and latent conflict
Similar to the situation in eastern Ukraine, Kokang conflict could be termed ethnic conflict with big neighboring country involvement, which shares the same ethnicity. Eastern Ukraine of Donbas has a high percentage of Russian ethnic population, while about ninety percent of Kokangnese are ethnically Han Chinese, within Kokang Self-Administrative Zone, like their brethren across the border in China. The Wa are national minority, who live in on both sides of China-Burma border, with a high level of Chinese influence, in all aspect of their daily lives. Both Kokangnese and Wa people were the main fighting force of the Communist Party of Burma (CPB), which was backed by China until 1989, when the party disintegrated and ceased to exist as a political force.

Kokangnese or MNDAA has an ongoing armed conflict with the Burmese regime, trying to achieve the rights of self-determination, equality and democracy, but the Wa or UWSA, who has 26 years of ceasefire with the government in place and only has a kind of latent conflict situation. But given the regime dissatisfaction for the Wa insistence and actually governing their area as "a state within the state", open conflict could flare up, whenever the regime makes up its mind that this infringement of the country's sovereignty cannot be tolerated anymore and has to be corrected, at all cost.

The Burmese regime is at war with Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Arakan Army (AA) and SSPP/SSA in northern Shan and Kachin States and also technically on war-footing with some 17 ethnic armed organizations struggling to achieve more self governance within a federal structure. Since 2011, President Thein Sein has called for peace talks with the aim of signing a nationwide ceasefire agreement. Almost all ethnic armed organizations are involved in the ongoing peace process, except MNDAA and AA, for the regime refused to acknowledge both as negotiation partners.

China's policy on Burma
According to Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2012, the security of China's energy investment and border issues have emerged as the top two priorities on Beijing's agenda.

The Chinese government is highly concerned with the frequent anti-pipeline reports and protests and how they might impact the construction of the pipelines. According to a senior advisor to the government, for China, Myitsone dam is only a commercial project by one Chinese company, but the pipeline project is significant on the national and strategic levels. Therefore, all measures are being taken to preempt potential risk to the pipelines. To this end, senior Chinese leaders repeatedly re-emphasised the need to "ensure the progress and implementation of the pipeline project" (Sources: Xinhua News Agency 2012a; Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2012).

The Burmese policy community is divided into two camps on how to deal with the Myitsone dam. Both agree that the permanent abandonment of the dam is inevitable, as it symbolises the free will of Burmese people, democratic awakening and independent foreign policy. However, they differ on the terms of the cancellation. The hawkish school argues that China should unilaterally give up not only the project but also the financial compensations to make up for its past exploitation of Myanmar if it is "genuinely interested in repairing the relationship." The more realistic camp contends that China should accept Myanmar's decision on Myitsone, "turn over the page as soon as possible" and focus on new collaborations. They also argue that Myanmar should fairly compensate the Chinese investor for the losses. But the Chinese side doubts Naypyidaw will have the financial resources to do so. (Source: SUN, Yun (2012), China and the Changing Myanmar, in: Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs , 31, 4, 51-77)

An analysis written by Bernt Berger, titled, "China's Myanmar Policy: Dilemma or Strategic Ambiguity ?" published by Institute for Security and Development Policy, on 2 March 2015, pointed out three factors that have implicated Burma-China relation.

First is the China's local-level authorities having different views and not conforming to Chinese central government policy, interests and cross-border issues on Burma. According to him, local authorities are suspicious of "ongoing support for armed groups or at least connivance of arms trafficking and training, such as for the Wa ethnic group, still exists."

Second, Chinese efforts to combat narcotics in Yunnan have been successful and thus have pushed the problem further into Burma creating new problems in a region, which are infested with various ethnic armed movements.

Third, China's geo-strategic ambition of important regional economic linkages, including transport corridors towards India (Southern Silk Road/BCIM Corridor), raises concerns for Burmese leaders, since most planned and existing transport infrastructure and pipelines pass through Kachin and northern Shan State. Besides, there is genuine concern that Chinese representatives might promote the ethnic Chinese groups interest than those of the Naypyidaw.

Apart from all these, Bernt Berger stressed the geo-political competition between the United States and China, where according to him Chinese hawkish analysts are for assertive policy of supporting ethnic groups in order to maintain leverage on Burma's military, while Burma has maintained neutral stance to remain aloof of outside powers.

He summed up that China's repeatedly requested Burma to guarantee stability along the border region, while offering political support and non-interference. He wrote, "Naypyidaw in return has called on Beijing to prevent local authorities from providing any unofficial support to armed groups. Although Beijing is supportive of an autonomous (ethnic Han) Kokang region, exactly how and whether to support dubious nationalist rebel groups causes a dilemma, and its actions in this regard will inevitably send signals hinting at what other countries can expect from China's emerging neighbourhood policy."

His last sentence, stressed that China might be profiting from what he called "indecisive restraint". He wrote: "At the same time, not pursuing a clear stance may also serve Beijing's interests as part of a policy of strategic ambiguity."(Source: China's Myanmar Policy: Dilemma or Strategic Ambiguity ? Bernt Berger Policy Brief – No. 171 March 2, 2015 – Institute for Security and Development Policy)

But all of these may be changing, with the recent release of "China's Military Strategy", which spells out its growing internationalization of its role and "active defense".

The internationalization of China's military role is stated in the Preface section of the paper as below:

China's destiny is vitally interrelated with that of the world as a whole. A prosperous and stable world would provide China with opportunities, while China's peaceful development also offers an opportunity for the whole world. China will unswervingly follow the path of peaceful development, pursue an independent foreign policy of peace and a national defense policy that is defensive in nature, oppose hegemonism and power politics in all forms, and will never seek hegemony or expansion. China's armed forces will remain a staunch force in maintaining world peace.
It further outlined its armed forces strategic tasks as follows:
  • To deal with a wide range of emergencies and military threats, and effectively safeguard the sovereignty and security of China's territorial land, air and sea;
  • To resolutely safeguard the unification of the motherland;
  • To safeguard China's security and interests in new domains;
  • To safeguard the security of China's overseas interests;
  • To maintain strategic deterrence and carry out nuclear counterattack;
  • To participate in regional and international security cooperation and maintain regional and world peace;
  • To strengthen efforts in operations against infiltration, separatism and terrorism so as to maintain China's political security and social stability; and
  • To perform such tasks as emergency rescue and disaster relief, rights and interests protection, guard duties, and support for national economic and social development. (Source: China's Military Strategy. The State Council Information Office of the People's Republic of China, May 2015, Beijing)

An analysis of Rodger Baker, lead analyst, from Stratfor Global Intelligence, recently identified four main areas that China would have to take into account. They are focusing more on the growing internationalization of its role and "active defense"; difficulties to convince and remain politically neutral and capable of protecting its interests, as China expands its economic and military activities in developing countries, especially to counter the accusations of imperialism; more involvement in global defense would make it hard to maintain its professed non-interference policies and would be forced to choose sides in political and security issues; and weaker states or groups within states will attempt to leverage Chinese power for their own interests.

Perspective of Russia and China involvement in neighboring state's ethnic conflict
The two countries, Russia and China, common denominators would be limited to being belonging to the same ethnic group, strengthening the global trend of ethnic upsurge, advocating political empowerment of ethnically related groups, directly or indirectly, in the neighboring country, among others. The differing part might be largely the concept or reasons of empowerment and the intended goal-setting or desired outcomes.

The urge for wanting to help achieve a degree of equality and rights of self-determination for the ethnically related groups are common, while the art of the achieving the goals could differ. For example, the Russian, or better President Putin, might be empowering the secessionist movements in eastern Ukraine for its bigger plan of "Eurasian Economic Union", but nevertheless is helping them to strengthen their aspirations. Likewise, China's goals are to secure its energy supply sources, markets and industrial bases, which are closely linked to Burma's infrastructure maintenance and smooth flows of goods; and could not be implemented without peaceful atmosphere between the Burmese regime and the ethnic armed organizations, bordering China. This in turn pushes China to advocate peaceful settlement, strengthening the ethnic groups aspirations of greater autonomy within the mold of a federal structure. It is also noteworthy that Russia's demand for federalism that would benefit ethnic Russians in its ceasefire agreement with the Ukraine government.

The big difference between Russia and China is that the former openly sided with the ethnic Russians of Donbass, with weapon delivery, participating with its troops, whereas the latter refrained from physical participation of the armed conflict in Burma.

The Ukraine-Russia conflict has international dimension, which resembles Cold-War setting, while Burma-China's latent conflict is, more or less, bilateral at the moment, brewing to become regional and eventually internationalized, if it could not be handled carefully.

It is evident that China has no territorial gain ambition, so far as Burma is concerned for two reasons. One is to prove its adherence of non-interference and territorial integrity commitment and the other, to keep its restless political entities like Tibet, East Turkestan and Taiwan under one nation-state roof, China couldn't possibly encourage the dismemberment of a country like Burma. All China now wants is a stable, peaceful border and not annexation of Kokang or Wa areas, for China's economic interest has a much more wider dimension. Of course, the priority setting could change, once it is convinced that its national interest of secure energy flows and infrastructure network would be disrupted in anyway, by the Burmese regime.

This propels us to access Burma's position, vis-a-vis China's interest, which is clearly spelled out in its recent China's Military Strategy. Two of the eight strategic tasks of Chinese armed forces concerned Burma directly.

One is the task of effective safeguarding the sovereignty and security of China's territorial land, air and sea, which the Chinese clearly sees as being violated, given the Burmese military repeated bombardment that have landed on Chinese side of the border, intentionally or unintentionally, while attacking the MNDAA positions.

Seven people were injured in explosions on the Chinese side of the border during fighting last month between Burmese government troops and rebel forces; and five Chinese nationals were killed in Yunan province, on 13 March, when a bomb was mistakenly dropped by the Burmese military aircraft.

The recent Chinese military live-fire exercise near the border across Kokang area is an indication of China's frustration, impatience and displeasure. It might well be signaling that it is serious in demanding for the return of peace and normalcy along the border.

The other Chinese armed forces task is safeguarding the security of China's overseas interests, which in Burma context could mean the security of gas and oil pipelines, the delivery system cross-cutting Burma from Arakan State to Yunan province, various natural resources extraction industries, and not to forget the Irrawaddy Myitsone dam project that have been shelved, since Thein Sein regime comes to power in 2011.

Given such circumstances, there could be only two scenario outcomes. The first would be the escalation of the border armed conflict blown out of proportion, leading to the Chinese invasion of Kokang conflict areas to restore peace or employing a proxy war by using MNDAA, UWSA and NDAA like during the Communist Party of Burma's days, when China openly aided the communist revolution, to push for a regime change. The second one is to resolve the ethnic conflict by agreeing to a genuine federalism based on equal national state basis, which would effectively end the conflict and create a "win-win" outcome for the Burmese regime, the non-Burman ethnic groups and China alike.




As it stands, the choice of war or peace will now solely depend on how the powers that be in Naypyidaw handle the situation.