Monday, June 15, 2015

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine


Thailand Dashes Burma’s SEA Games Gold Hopes With 3-0 Win

Posted: 15 Jun 2015 07:56 AM PDT

Thailand fans are pictured before the Southeast Asian Games football gold medal match against Burma at Singapore's National Stadium on Monday. (Photo: Reuters)

Thailand fans are pictured before the Southeast Asian Games football gold medal match against Burma at Singapore's National Stadium on Monday. (Photo: Reuters)

RANGOON — A spirited performance was not enough for Burma at the Southeast Asian Games football gold medal match on Monday night, with the under-23 underdogs falling to Thailand 3-0.

The favored Thais appeared to have the edge in the early going, controlling possession and moving the ball with relative ease through the midfield and into their attacking third at Singapore's National Stadium.

A one-handed save from keeper Kyaw Zin Phyo in the 7th minute prevented the Burmese from going down a goal early, but a scrappy Burma side made a game of it as play progressed, forcing several nervous moments for the Thai defense.

Burma got its first real chance of the match in the 27th minute, when Nay Lin Tun snagged a through ball to put a shot on goal that the Thai goalkeeper Chanin Sae-ear parried wide and over the end line.

His Burmese counterpart was called into action early and often, including a stop in the 42nd minute from close-range and a save in the dying seconds of first-half stoppage time that prevented what could have been a devastating blow to the Burmese side's gold medal prospects.

That blow would instead come eight minutes into the second half, when a corner kick took a fortuitous bounce for Tanaboon Kesarat, who deftly fired the ball past the Burmese keeper to put the Thais up 1-0.

Chananan Pombubpha doubled the deficit in the 63rd minute, running onto a smart through ball that left him alone with the keeper and well-positioned to direct the ball far post and into the back of the net.

Pinyo Inpinit all but sealed the deal in the 78th minute for the favorites Thailand.

Monday's defeat to defending champion Thailand capped an unexpected SEA Games campaign for Burma that saw the team go undefeated in the group stage before beating Vietnam 2-1 on Saturday to earn a shot at the gold medal.

Burma last played for the gold in 2007, when it also came up short to then host Thailand. It's been more than four decades since Burma won its last gold, in the 1973 iteration of the biennial competition.

The post Thailand Dashes Burma's SEA Games Gold Hopes With 3-0 Win appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Facing Assembly Charges, Activist Accuses USDP of Misusing Public Property

Posted: 15 Jun 2015 06:31 AM PDT

Ko Ko Gyi and other 88 Generation members wait for a judge outside a courthouse in Rangoon on June 15, 2015. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

Ko Ko Gyi and other 88 Generation members wait for a judge outside a courthouse in Rangoon on June 15, 2015. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Prominent activist and parliamentary hopeful Ko Ko Gyi on Monday returned to court to face charges related to a protest against a ruling party-backed development project, which he and several other activists say violates election guidelines.

After the hearing was cancelled due to the judge's absence, Ko Ko Gyi told reporters that the charges against him could have been timed to remove him from the political arena as elections near.

The 88 Generation member reiterated calls to halt construction of the multi-million dollar real estate development and restore a public park that once occupied the space in South Okkalar Township. The property, which belongs to the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), was transferred from the state to the party's predecessor, the USDA, in the early 2000s.

The USDA closed the public park, which had been in use since the 1960s, and used the property for offices and some small housing units. Following the dissolution of the USDA and the establishment of the USDP, the property was transferred and plans were made with Yan Naing Construction Company to begin building the multi-storey condominium project.

The Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC) confirmed to independent Upper House lawmaker Phone Myint Aung in March that the property was originally city property until it was transferred to the USDA as per a 60 year agreement.

In December, Ko Ko Gyi and several colleagues led a protest in South Okkalar to demand an immediate halt to the project and restoration of the park. He and four other activists were later charged with Article 19 of Burma's Peaceful Assembly Act.

Article 19, a lesser-known sister clause to the controversial and oft-employed Article 18, carries a possible three-month sentence for protesting in an area outside designated by police.

Ko Ko Gyi said on Monday that he and his colleagues would fight the charges, maintaining that he had done nothing wrong and that the USDP should instead face punishment for misuse of public property.

"It is very apparent that this is a huge case of a political party using state-owned land, and it is misuse of public things," he said, accusing the party of further misconduct if funds from the project are used to support the party or its campaign efforts.

Chapter 3 of Burma's Political Parties Registration Law prohibits use of country-owned finance, land, housing, buildings, vehicles or other property by political parties. Violators can be subject to cancellation of the party's license.

If the law was breached and the party is not punished, Ko Ko Gyi warned, "the election [process] will lose the trust of the people and the international community."

The post Facing Assembly Charges, Activist Accuses USDP of Misusing Public Property appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Burma vs. Thailand: It’s On

Posted: 15 Jun 2015 05:10 AM PDT

fair play &respect

The post Burma vs. Thailand: It’s On appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Census Raises New Questions over Legitimacy of Birthrate Law

Posted: 15 Jun 2015 04:59 AM PDT

A woman and her newborn baby are pictured in Muslims Charity Hospital in Yangon November 1, 2013. Myanmar's reformist government is seeking foreign investment to revive one of Asia's sickest healthcare systems. Several leading regional healthcare companies are already operating in Myanmar and others plan to enter soon, seeing huge potential in the country's underserved population of about 60 million people. Attracting foreign investment is part of an overhaul of the healthcare system by the quasi-civilian government that took over from the army in 2011. The administration of President Thein Sein has cut military spending and raised healthcare funding to 3 percent of government spending this fiscal year to March 31, from 1 percent the previous year. As with many sectors, however, private firms say they are being held back by uncertainty over rules for foreign investors. Picture taken November 1, 2013. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun (MYANMAR - Tags: HEALTH SOCIETY POLITICS) - RTX161GS

A woman and her newborn baby are pictured in at the Muslim Charity Hospital in Rangoon on Nov. 1, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

RANGOON—Newly released census data revealing steady birthrates has renewed speculation over the motivations behind a recently enacted population control law, as some critics have implored lawmakers to offer a fact-based explanation for how the new provisions might be put to use.

The Population Control Law, which was signed by President Thein Sein in late May, has drawn criticism from the outset for what rights groups view as curbs on reproductive rights and the law's potential to target minorities.

First proposed by the nationalist Buddhist organization Ma Ba Tha, the law was part of a highly contested group of four bills called the Protection of Race and Religion package. The population Control Law was the first to pass, granting local authorities the right to petition for permission to impose three-year birth spacing in select communities. The remaining three bills call for restrictions on interfaith marriage, religious conversion and monogamy.

The Population Control Law, which carries no punitive measures, was proposed and rushed through Parliament on the grounds that it would reduce maternal and infant mortality rates. The law was passed with such expediency, in fact, that it was approved before Burma even had concrete data about fertility and child mortality; results of the country's first census in more than three decades were published several days after it was signed into law.

While predicated on improving women's health, the law was widely viewed as a means of controlling minority populations. A leading proponent of the legislation, the firebrand monk U Wirathu, has even admitted that the law could serve the added purpose of preventing growth among the Rohingya population, a Muslim minority in western Burma that are predominantly stateless.

Census data firmly supports that explanation: the results show average fertility rates in Burma, with no major discrepancies in comparison with other countries in the region, yet the Rohingya account for the only substantial group of persons in Burma for whom policymakers still have no concrete information.

Backtracking on its promises to international donors, the Burmese government did not allow Rohingya to identify as such in census surveys, demanding that they instead called themselves "Bengali." According to the census report, the government "made this decision in the interest of security and to avoid the possibility of violence occurring due to communal tensions." As a result, the Rohingya population was not enumerated, and was estimated by the Ministry of Immigration and Population to number about 1.1 million. All other census data—detailed information about health, education and housing—does not exist for the marginalized group, just as their preferred name cannot be found anywhere within the 277-page document, where future researchers would be able to reference it.

In short, no one actually knows if birth rates are higher among the Rohingya population than they are elsewhere, precisely because the government did not allow that information to be quantified. What is known is that birthrates in most states and regions are actually quite normal: 2.29 children per woman, rising to 4.03 among married women. The report indicates that women are generally now marrying later, hence they are having slightly fewer children, as has happened in much of the world.

The drop in fertility is neither extreme nor abnormal for the region, nor is the rate so high as to warrant birthing restrictions. Moreover, critics argue that such restrictions would likely be ineffective without access to quality healthcare and safe birth control methods. On the contrary, it has been argued that limiting births could lead to unsafe abortions or misuse of contraceptives.

In keeping with global trends, women in rural areas have more children (an average of 2.5 compared to 1.8 in urban areas). State and divisional variations also adhere to this trend; fertility is lowest in Rangoon and Mandalay divisions, while they are comparable in all other parts of the country except for Chin State, which has the highest birthrate at 4.4.

When confronted with the information, one of the law's principal architects said only that it should be there in case it is ever needed, explaining that in areas where child mortality is high, women "lack knowledge" or are far from a hospital, "the local authorities can report it to the state, and the state can enforce this law."

In contrast, an activist named Salai Isaac Khen, the ethnic Chin director of the Gender and Development Initiative, argued that communities with little access to health and education would be better served by more schools and hospitals, instead of using resources to prevent them from procreating. Assessing actual needs of communities, he suggested, is a more appropriate task for local government.

"I think that township authorities are not in a position to determine whether a law like this should be used or not," Salai Isaac Khen told The Irrawaddy, explaining his belief that, if anything, minority populations should receive support for population growth. Chin State, he pointed out, currently has the highest birth rate in the country, though its total population remains low at less than half a million.

"The population should not be lower, it should be growing," he said, remarking that pre-reform policies are believed to have already diminished minority populations. "Looking at [the data from] all states and divisions, the population must grow."

The post Census Raises New Questions over Legitimacy of Birthrate Law appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Govt Concerned by New ‘Hardline’ Ceasefire Negotiating Bloc

Posted: 15 Jun 2015 04:50 AM PDT

Dr. Laja of the Kachin Independence Organization, who will be the deputy leader of the new ethnic negotiating bloc. (Photo: Hein Htet / The Irrawaddy)

Dr. Laja of the Kachin Independence Organization, who will be the deputy leader of the new ethnic negotiating bloc. (Photo: Hein Htet / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — The Burmese government's hopes of finalizing a nationwide ceasefire agreement before this year's election appear to have shrunk considerably, after this month's ethnic summit in Law Khee Lar voted to cede negotiating power to a new "hardline" committee.

From the perspective of government peace negotiators, two problems have arisen from the Law Khee Lar summit, which concluded at the beginning of last week. First, ethnic leaders have refused to endorse the draft ceasefire text, demanding fresh negotiations over 15 amendments. Second, the new negotiating committee, which will assume the responsibilities of the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT), is comprised of people likely to be much less receptive to government overtures.

“We prefer to deal with the NCCT instead of a new committee," said Hla Maung Shwe, a director of the Myanmar Peace Center. "The NCCT members have become friendly with us already. But now they have formed a new committee and replaced the leaders. This could be a problem with our government as it will take time to build rapport, and the people leading the new committee are hardliners."

The government has positioned the successful conclusion of a nationwide ceasefire agreement one of the most important ambitions of President Thein Sein's tenure, but ethnic armed groups remain aloof, cautious of committing themselves to an accord that would impede their push for a federal reform of the Constitution.

"Of course, the president wants to pass his exam," said NCCT chief Nai Hong Sar. "He would be credited for being able to bring a ceasefire agreement during his term. But for us, we are worried that we will be trapped by the government after the agreement is signed."

The formation of a new negotiating coalition is indicative of majority opinion at the Law Khee Lar summit: ethnic leaders believe that the government has not made enough concessions to warrant signing the ceasefire accord as it stands. For that reason, the new committee will be headed by Naw Zipporah Sein, the vice-chair of the Karen National Union (KNU), with Dr. Laja of the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) as her deputy. Both spent time on the central executive committee of the United Nationalities Federal Council ethnic coalition, and both are representatives of factions less amenable to compromises with the government within their respective organizations.

Ballots Before Pens, Rights Before Ballots

On the sidelines of the Law Khee Lar summit, ethnic leaders appeared to be rankled by what they saw as pressure from the international community to sign an accord sooner. KNU member Naw May Oo Mutraw reportedly lashed out at UN envoy Vijay Nambiar, claiming that the international community did not understand the reality of the situation faced by ethnic armed groups in Burma.

Sources close to the organizations said that both the KIO and KNU, the political wings of the two most powerful ethnic armed groups, had decided withhold any agreement to sign the nationwide ceasefire agreement until the general election expected later this year is demonstrated to be free and fair, and would not yield to any international pressure to expedite the process.

At the same time, the international community may prove to be a sticking point in future negotiations for very different reasons. Ethnic leaders want international observers present to witness the signing of the nationwide ceasefire agreement, while the government has rejected calls for their oversight, saying that a ceasefire accord is a purely domestic affair. The issue came up during previous negotiations between the government and the NCCT, before it was struck from the draft text of the ceasefire agreement unveiled on March 31.

Other exceptions to the draft text also emerged at the summit. Ethnic leaders resolved to have provisions relating to a federal army included in any ceasefire agreement. As with other issues, this was excluded from the draft text after negotiations in the expectation that a settlement would be reached after the accord was signed. Some leaders at Law Khee Lar criticized the draft text for lacking strong guarantees of political rights for ethnic groups, and said an agreement could not be signed without more explicit commitments on this front from the government's Union Peacemaking Working Committee (UPWC).

Khun Okkar, a member of the NCCT, said he was skeptical of the new committee's ability to secure more concessions from the government, but said the previous negotiators would abide by the summit's decision.

“Some leaders thought that they could push for more rights, and this is why they told us to step down and let others talk to the UPWC," he said. "We worked the best we could and it took a year and a half. Let them try, they may understand afterwards that it is not easy to talk with the military."

He noted, however, that some of the ethnic leaders at the summit wanted to sign the nationwide ceasefire agreement as it stood, without waiting for three armed groups that had been excluded from negotiations by the government.

Hla Maung Shwe warned that the government might not be willing to accept either a new negotiating bloc or a new discussion on amending the ceasefire text, noting that a date and time for further negotiations had not yet been set.

"They should have proposed [the amendments] before, why are they just proposing them now?" he asked. "This could be a problem. I feel the government might not accept this."

Though his own position will eventually become redundant if the new committee proceeds, Nai Hong Sar said that the decision was in the hands of ethnic leaders and not negotiators.

"[The NCCT] cannot do anything," he said. "Even if the government cannot accept the new committee or sign our draft text, this was the majority decision made by ethnic leaders."

The post Govt Concerned by New 'Hardline' Ceasefire Negotiating Bloc appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

A Golden Chance for the Golden Land

Posted: 15 Jun 2015 04:41 AM PDT

Burma's supporters unfurl their national flag before their semifinal football match against Vietnam in the Southeast Asian Games at the National Stadium in Singapore on June 13, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

Burma's supporters unfurl their national flag before their semifinal football match against Vietnam in the Southeast Asian Games at the National Stadium in Singapore on June 13, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

For the Burmese underdogs, the under-23 Southeast Asian Games football final against Thailand on Monday night is about more than just 90 minutes of match play; it's also about earning international recognition. The team's surprise run to the gold medal game has been a lift to the collective conscience of Burma's people, who are said to have an "unconsciously inferior" complex for which the disastrous governance of successive military regimes is to thank.

Eight years after losing to host Thailand in the gold medal clash at the 2007 Southeast Asian Games, Burma again faces its neighbor to the east, this time in Singapore.

An undefeated run through the group stage of the competition, followed by a semifinal win over Vietnam on Saturday, has brought a frenzied atmosphere to the streets of Rangoon. In Singapore, huge crowds of the Burmese diaspora have turned out to cheer on the team every step of the way. Even the firebrand monk U Wirathu is apparently stoked, with images circulating on social media reportedly showing the radical cleric on a flight to Singapore to attend the game.

But unlike U Wirathu, who specializes in divisive rhetoric, the Burmese footballers' unexpected SEA Games campaign has been a unifying affair. On Monday night, monks and imams will come together to share in the sporting spectacle. Majority Bamar will sit side by side with their ethnic minority countrymen.

Rangoon's perennially congested streets will get a reprieve as millions of people sit down in front of their televisions, cram into beer stations or gather at the large screens erected by the city for the occasion.

In the run up to the final, Rangoon residents didn't even need to watch the games to know how they were trending, such was the cacophony that each goal from Burma induced.

Offices are sending out memos telling employees that they need not worry: There will be no overtime work tonight.

There is a real 2008 Obama feel this week; a "yes we can" vibe. Burma's football program and supporters have waited 42 years for this moment, a chance to shake off the unconscious inferiority, at least for a night.

It won't be easy, with Thailand the heavy favorites. If nothing else, the U-23 squad can do no worse than silver.

And Rangoon residents are sure to know it if they manage to pull off the upset, as exhortations of pride in country will no doubt echo through the night.

The post A Golden Chance for the Golden Land appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Burma’s Rice Exporters Eye European Market

Posted: 15 Jun 2015 02:19 AM PDT

People rest by bags of rice that are waiting to be transported from a local mill in Kyaiklat town, Irrawaddy Division, on May 24, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

People rest by bags of rice that are waiting to be transported from a local mill in Kyaiklat town, Irrawaddy Division, on May 24, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

RANGOON — Burma's rice exporters will attend an exhibition in Milan late next month for the first time, hoping to promote Burmese rice in Italy and other European markets, according to the chairman of the Myanmar Rice Federation.

Though China is Burmese rice exporters' biggest customer and looks likely remain on top for some time, MRF chairman Chit Khine told The Irrawaddy on Monday that the European Union beckoned as Burma looks to ramp up exports of the staple grain.

"The EU market has potential and we need to extend our network by taking part in these kinds of exhibitions," said Chit Khine, adding that he hoped to make a major push into the market next year.

In 2013, the European Union designated Burma eligible to benefit from its Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), eliminating duties on imports from the Southeast Asian nation. One factor preventing a more robust growth in exports to Europe has been the low quality of Burma's rice exports, with much of the product failing to meet EU standards.

Ongoing upgrades to domestic rice mills would help to make up for that shortcoming, according to Chit Khine.

EU sanctions under the previous military regime made the European market effectively off-limits for Burma's rice traders, but the normalization of relations in recent years has them looking West once more.

"That's why we're trying to touch base with EU traders directly," Chit Khine said.

Soe Tun, chairman of the Myanmar Farmers Association, said the Ministry of Commerce is backing rice exporters' more aggressive effort to court European buyers.

And while a weakening kyat in recent months has brought concern from some quarters, rice exporters are benefiting from the currency's slump, a trader in Rangoon told The Irrawaddy.

According to the Myanmar Rice Exporters Association, Burma's rice exports in 2013-14 stood at about 1.2 million tons, down from nearly 1.5 million tons the year before. At more than 1.7 million tons, the 2014-15 fiscal year's rice export volume exceeded the expectations of the Myanmar Rice Federation, which had predicted the figure at 1.5 million tons.

President Thein Sein has set a target to export 4 million tons of rice by 2020.

The post Burma's Rice Exporters Eye European Market appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Burma’s Voter Roster Rollout Falls Flat

Posted: 15 Jun 2015 12:44 AM PDT

Prospective voters check to see if their names are correctly enumerated on voter lists on display in Rangoon on March 30. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

Prospective voters check to see if their names are correctly enumerated on voter lists on display in Rangoon on March 30. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

The talk of election circles in Rangoon is whether the proposed polls in November will be "free and fair." A great deal of investment has already been made by many, be it in time or money, to ensure that the Union Election Commission (UEC) is able to provide a reasonably acceptable outcome that will see Burma take another step toward more democratic governance.

But hold on! Is this just an illusion, or wishful thinking? Given the way things are shaping up, there is cause for skepticism. In recent weeks, the controversy du jour has involved the voter lists, a critical component to credible elections that has been in the news of late for all the wrong reasons. A pity, really, but it appears that all the talk of enlisting international expertise, using the latest technology to modernize the registration system and make it easy for voters to enumerate themselves is turning out to be little more than hype and specious claims.

To support the electoral process, an estimated US$30 million or more has been earmarked by donors, primarily US, British, Australian and EU aid, with additional support from Norway and other countries. The money has been channeled through international nongovernmental organizations (INGOs) that are supporting the election commission and civil society groups to strengthen the transparency and effectiveness of the electoral process in Myanmar.

Let us not forget that much more funding support has also been provided in other forms through various aid granting mechanisms, with the election commission a direct or indirect beneficiary. UEC chairman Tin Aye has said taxpayers will foot the bill for about 40 billion kyats ($36.4 million) in election-related funding from the Union budget.

But now the obvious question to ask is, why has a two-year effort to "clean" the voter lists resulted in the roster being, as the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) contends, up to 80 percent inaccurate? With just six months until the election, this administrative failure is deeply troubling.

The election commission and its technical advisors have been dismissive about the concerns raised by Burma's leading opposition party and civil society groups. The UEC argues that the lists on display are only preliminary and that errors and inconsistencies can happen during the process of data entry, which is a rather flimsy and irresponsible excuse, to say the least.

When possibly 80 percent of voter lists are inaccurate in townships within urban constituencies such as Rangoon and Naypyidaw after two long years of experimenting, it is perhaps anyone's guess as to how the process will unfold outside country's cities. In Burma's rural, remote and far-flung locales, voter awareness is extremely low, and the process of compiling the lists—and correcting errors on the rosters—remains an enigma for many voters and even some election officials.

Recent travels around the countryside brought to the fore a very gloomy picture of people with little knowledge or interest in the election. And it was not just townships in Kachin, Chin and Karen states; even in constituencies on the outskirts of Rangoon, voter education has been sorely lacking.

The question to ask, perhaps, is where has all the millions of dollars earmarked for voter education gone? The UEC-donor-INGO triumvirate must be made to answer.

Or is it that the money has been spent, but the efforts have not borne fruit? Which calls to mind something Kyaw Lwin, a teashop owner on Pansodan Road, recently told me after the voter registration fiasco was reported: "How will we ever get to see the fruits when all the water is being sprayed on the branches and not at the roots?" he asked.

The UEC and its advisors will surely have to hang their heads in shame if they are not able to provide clean voter lists by the time Election Day rolls around, and preferably at least a month before that date. After all, registering voters and cleaning up the list is not rocket science; it requires the correct and effective application of resources.

A pilot project in three diverse townships last year should perhaps have served as the proverbial canary in the coal mine, with a report of the outcome citing many of the issues that have cropped up in recent weeks, albeit seemingly to a less severe degree.

Despite two years of preparations, and claims of extensive voter education and registration monitoring trainings provided to civil society organizations (CSOs), we are faced with a situation where, with six months to go until the election, the climb is getting steeper by the day.

One of the CSOs tasked with observing the voter registration process, the Peoples' Alliance for Credible Elections (PACE), had recommended to the UEC "to guide its election officials on what to do if data on date of birth, parent's name and NRC [National Registration Card] number do not match." From what has been heard during the recent voter list displays in Rangoon townships, many election officials "were clueless" when voters pointed out these discrepancies.

If the voter registration process, which has snowballed into a major concern, is anything to go by, it would be fair to say that the election commission needs to come up with a better explanation, or accept that something is fundamentally wrong with its trainings and voter education initiatives.

According to the UEC, a "nationwide voter list display" after the election date is announced will serve as a "double verification process," ensuring the rosters are ready for prime time. But this plan will fall flat, and the UEC will have egg on its face, if voters go to the polling stations on Election Day only to find their names missing or incorrectly enumerated, rendering them incapable of voting. Would the UEC and its team of advisors then offer a perfunctory apology and promise that "this won't happen again," as was said by one Arakan State election official after the 2010 elections?

Let's hope not, because if so, it'll be five long years before they have a chance to honor their word.

Saw Nyi Nyi is a researcher and commentator on political and election-related affairs in Southeast Asia.

The post Burma's Voter Roster Rollout Falls Flat appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Schools Reopen as South Korea Seeks Normality in MERS Outbreak

Posted: 14 Jun 2015 11:45 PM PDT

A passenger puts a mask on her son to prevent contracting Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) at the Incheon International Airport in Incheon, South Korea, June 14, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

A passenger puts a mask on her son to prevent contracting Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) at the Incheon International Airport in Incheon, South Korea, June 14, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

SUWON, South Korea — Thousands of South Korean schools that were shut by worries over Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) reopened on Monday as the country sought to return to normal, nearly four weeks into an outbreak that showed signs of slowing.

Five new cases were reported by the Health Ministry on Monday, taking the total to 150, the largest outbreak outside of Saudi Arabia. The ministry also said another patient infected with the MERS virus had become the 16th fatality.

All the cases have been traced to healthcare facilities. Four hospitals have been shut down completely or partially closed in an effort to stop the spread of what the World Health Organization (WHO) has said was a "large and complex" outbreak.

At least 440 schools remained closed on Monday, compared with the 2,900 that were shut on Friday.

South Korean President Park Geun-hye, whose approval rating has been battered over the government's response to MERS, urged the country on Monday to return to normal.

"I ask the business community, too, to continue to go on with investment, production and management activities as normal and particularly help with ensuring that consumers don't hold back from spending money," she told a meeting of senior aides.

Park, who last week postponed a scheduled visit to the United States, saw her public support rating dip below 35 percent last week, according to a Realmeter poll.

Her government has been criticized for refusing in the early days of the outbreak to release the name of the hospital where infected and suspected patients had stayed, fuelling public fear and confusion.

On Saturday, the WHO cited shortcomings in South Korea's early response to MERS and urged better communication by the government to improve confidence and trust in its effort to fight the outbreak, domestically and internationally.

Schools Reopen

The Health Ministry said it was moving to quarantine more than 5,500 people who may have been exposed to the MERS virus at a prominent Seoul hospital, which has suspended most services after becoming a new epicenter of the outbreak. The number will take the total in quarantine to about 10,000.

Samsung Medical Center said on Sunday it was suspending all non-emergency surgery and would take no new patients after more than 70 cases were traced to it, including an infected worker who was found to have been in contact with more than 200 people.

At Myoungin Elementary School in the city of Suwon, south of Seoul, teachers greeted students at the gate for the first time in 10 days, taking their temperatures to send home anyone who had a fever.

The WHO last week recommended schools be reopened, saying schools have not been linked to transmission of the MERS virus in South Korea or elsewhere.

"The child's mother and I both work, so I think it's better for kids to be in school where there can be proper measures, rather than keeping them home," said Bin Ko-ok, who brought her first-grader grandchild to school.

The school was one of the first to shut as the fear of MERS spread two weeks ago. Its principal, Kim Hak-yu, said he had received no calls from parents opposed to it reopening.

South Korea said more than 108,000 tourists had called off visiting the country by Saturday since the start of the outbreak, 75 percent of them from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

The trend is expected to continue through the summer, the culture ministry said.

The post Schools Reopen as South Korea Seeks Normality in MERS Outbreak appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Hong Kong Braces for Democracy Showdown as Electoral Reform Vote Looms

Posted: 14 Jun 2015 11:40 PM PDT

Pro-democracy protesters march to demand that lawmakers reject a Beijing-vetted electoral reform package for the city's first direct chief executive election in Hong Kong, China June 14, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

Pro-democracy protesters march to demand that lawmakers reject a Beijing-vetted electoral reform package for the city’s first direct chief executive election in Hong Kong, China June 14, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

HONG KONG — Hong Kong is gearing up for a vote this week on a contentious electoral reform package backed by Beijing, with a weekend poll showing public support has shifted against the proposal amid renewed street marches by pro-democracy protesters.

However, senior Chinese officials are expressing confidence behind the scenes that Hong Kong will still pass the package, paving the way for more potentially crippling protests in the Asian financial center.

Police are taking no chances following sometimes violent clashes last year during demonstrations against the package, in which Beijing has proposed a direct vote for Hong Kong's next leader in 2017 among pre-screened, pro-Beijing candidates.

Dozens of police are on patrol near government headquarters, where metal fences have been erected, before debate on the package begins on Wednesday.

Polls taken before and after a televised weekend debate between three democratic lawmakers and three Beijing loyalists showed many viewers turned against the government's proposal after hearing both sides' arguments, Hong Kong media reported.

Before the debate, 49 percent of 188 people at the forum believed lawmakers should veto the proposal, while 42 percent supported it, the South China Morning Post reported on Monday.

After the debate, 54 percent said the package should be voted down, with 38 percent voicing support.

Pro-democracy activists plan to hold evening rallies outside government headquarters before the package goes up for debate on Wednesday, with a vote expected by the end of the week.

More than 100,000 people took to the streets at the height of the protests last year, bringing key areas of the city to a standstill. Only a few thousand turned out for the latest rally on Sunday.

"Even if the proposal is vetoed, if some people decide to stay until Hong Kong has genuine democracy, I will stay with them," said film editor Jimmy Leung, 31, who is camped with a small group of protesters near government headquarters.

Beijing has pressured the city's pro-democracy lawmakers to back the electoral blueprint. The deal requires two-thirds of the 70-seat house, or 47 votes, to pass.

Democracy legislators have repeatedly said they will veto it and that any optimism from senior Chinese officials is a last-ditch effort to unnerve them.

About 70 colorful tents erected by democracy activists are dotted along the street close to government headquarters. At least 5,000 officers will be on duty when the vote takes place, senior police sources have told Reuters, adding that the demonstrations could be much bigger and angrier if the package is passed.

Britain handed Hong Kong back to China in 1997 under a promise that core personal and commercial freedoms, backed by a British-style legal system, would be protected for 50 years.

Anti-Chinese sentiment is rising in Hong Kong, where football fans jeered the playing of the Chinese national anthem during a World Cup qualifying match against Bhutan last week.

The post Hong Kong Braces for Democracy Showdown as Electoral Reform Vote Looms appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

China’s Senior Officials Find Comfort in Mythical Masters

Posted: 14 Jun 2015 11:36 PM PDT

A Chinese man reads a book titled 'Qigong and Prevention of Cancer' at a park in Huangyan district of Taizhou, Zhejiang province, on Sept. 18, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

A Chinese man reads a book titled 'Qigong and Prevention of Cancer' at a park in Huangyan district of Taizhou, Zhejiang province, on Sept. 18, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

BEIJING — The former Chinese security czar recently convicted of leaking state secrets did not pass classified documents to a foreign spy or a political rival.

Rather, Zhou Yongkang, a former member of the all-powerful Standing Committee of the ruling Communist Party's Politburo, shared the documents with his qigong master, who claims supernatural abilities, according to a verdict made public last week and which also convicted Zhou of massive corruption.

It's the latest example of a twisted relationship between the leadership of the party, which nominally espouses atheism, and spirituality.

Before Zhou, many senior party cadres and government officials were reported to have sought help and blessings from qigong masters, feng-shui experts, and Buddhist and Taoist monks. Golden Buddha statues are coveted gifts for those in power. Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin is an avid temple-goer.

"The reason is clear—communism is dead," said Willy Lam, an expert on China's elite politics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. "It's natural for cadres to turn to superstitious beliefs to ward off evil and to help them avoid the pitfalls in the cunning corridors of [politics]."

It's no secret that many Communist leaders believe in Buddhism or Christianity, said Cheng Li, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at Washington-based think tank Brookings Institute.

"They go to temples, and some are closet Christians," Li said. "It's not surprising in a country with a spiritual vacuum."

Qigong, a traditional practice of breathing, gentle body movements and meditation, has legitimate health benefits, Li added. "When you have money and power, what else do you want? Longevity and health. That's human nature," he said.

Superstition also is common among Chinese officials, with examples including hanging a sword to keep disciplinary inspectors away, erecting a basin in front of a government building in hope of amassing wealth, and tearing up a road to ward off bad luck.

The practice of Communist Party members taking interest in supernatural powers has drawn stern criticism from China's political conservatives.

"Corruption is only a matter of course when officials abandon Marxism and Leninism for ghosts and spirits," Sima Nan, a political conservative, wrote on his microblog account. "Now the party has distanced itself from atheism for so long as to allow [qigong masters] to have a good life."

Sima has long been trying to expose qigong masters with uncanny abilities as conmen. In another post, he said corrupt officials and the masters have a symbiotic relationship.

"The masters provide psychological massages to corrupt officials, who in turn provide protection for the masters," he wrote.

In the latest revelation, the confidante for Zhou—a once-feared security czar who oversaw China's vast police and security apparatus—has been identified as Cao Yongzheng, a middle-aged man who gained a reputation as a semi-immortal for his supernatural powers in the late 1980s.

Cao even got the endorsement from a reporter at the party-run People's Daily, who wrote that Cao could tell one's past, present and future by merely looking at that person's photo, and that he possessed powers such as the ability to cure infertility.

At the time, China was swept into a national frenzy over qigong, which promised healthier bodies and calmer minds as the country was embarking on the dizzying road of economic reforms that would drastically reshape the lives of hundreds of millions of people.

To win followers, qigong masters boasted uncanny powers such as curing stubborn illnesses without medical treatment, and they soon built large bases of fans who attended massive gatherings, signed up for practice groups, and purchased pamphlets by the masters as they sought answers to life's problems.

The frenzy subsided when Beijing found the fad was sliding into superstitious and cultish cultures, and it came to an end in 1999, when authorities started to crack down on one of the popular qigong schools known as Falun Gong. More than 10,000 of its practitioners showed up in front of the central government to demand fair treatment, making authorities uneasy about the spiritual group's ability to mobilize the masses.

Yet, the demand for spiritual guidance and psychological counseling has risen in China as more people grappled with rapid and profound social and economic changes. The traditional values have been dismantled by the party's earlier campaigns to eradicate the old world, but the party also had seen its own communist beliefs go bankrupt among the public.

"The Cultural Revolution has rooted out China's traditional value system, and the introduction of Western values was disrupted to some extent in 1989," said Beijing-based independent commentator Shi Shusi, referring to the bloody suppression of the 1989 Tiananmen pro-democracy demonstrations.

"But human souls need to have a home, so the Chinese have found the home for their souls in those qigong masters," Shi said.

State-sanctioned religions such as Christianity and Buddhism also have seen a rapid and strong resurgence, while gurus such as qigong masters and feng shui experts—who specialize in harmonizing elements in one's environment—have built small but lucrative circles of clients among China's richest and most powerful and most influential.

Cao, Zhou's confidante, was highly sought after by officials seeking favors from Cao's powerful friends, according to a 2013 article by the Southern Weekly, which used to be famous for its investigative journalism.

Cao was listed in the court statement as part of a small group of relatives and close friends of Zhou who pocketed 2 billion yuan (US$340 million) in illegal income through Zhou's help, and media reports described Cao as one of the richest people in China, with business interests in oil, real estate, film and agriculture.

As Zhou came under investigation in 2013, Cao's office in Beijing was raided by police, and the man himself had fled the country, state media reported. Now, the media have suggested that Cao eventually will be brought to justice now that Zhou has been imprisoned for life over corruption charges following his May 22 trial.

Another qigong master, Wang Lin, who has been recently disgraced as a fraud by state media, once had the trust of a Chinese railways minister and found a fan in Alibaba founder Jack Ma. State media said Wang had lived lavishly.

Wang once gave former Railways Minister Liu Zhijun a rock as a blessing that Liu would always stand solid and never fall. The anecdote now serves as a joke after Liu fell to corruption charges.

Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, said the rich and powerful are turning to divine powers to help, including relationships with qigong masters who not only can provide soothing body massages, but also psychological support to help them avoid trouble.

"It's psychologically comforting," Yang said. "They can play the role of a psychological adviser."

The post China's Senior Officials Find Comfort in Mythical Masters appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Neruda’s Burmese Days

Posted: 14 Jun 2015 05:00 PM PDT

A woman looks at a painting of Pablo Neruda during a ceremony in Isla Negra on Sept. 23, 2003, the 30th anniversary of his death. (Photo: Reuters)

A woman looks at a painting of Pablo Neruda during a ceremony in Isla Negra on Sept. 23, 2003, the 30th anniversary of his death. (Photo: Reuters)

Long before he became world famous for his poetry, Pablo Neruda served as Chile's honorary consul in colonial Yangon from 1927 to 1928. According to an essay he published in the Brazilian newspaper "O Cruzeiro" some three decades later, the circumstances in which Neruda arrived in the Far East were rather unusual.

"My friend gave to the minister [of foreign relations] the names of available cities all over the world, but I only caught the name of a city that I had never read nor heard of before: Rangoon," he wrote. "The minister said to me, 'Where do you want to go, Pablo?' 'To Rangoon' I answered in a flash. 'Put his name in,' said the minister."

So began Pablo Neruda's brief but eventful one year posting, the first stop in a diplomatic career that saw him stationed in Ceylon (now Sri Lanka), the Dutch East Indies (now Indonesia), Mexico, Spain and France.

According to his writing, Neruda, who spent most of his time in Yangon living on what was then Dalhousie Street (today, Mahabandoola Road), was appalled by the British colonial occupiers who he later described as "monotonous and even ignorant." This view was shared by many Myanmar at the time, large numbers of whom were actively resisting colonialism with strikes and protests, all of which were put down with brutal force.

The combination of his Latin American origins and his radical politics meant that Neruda was far from the typical westerner living in colonial Myanmar. His distaste for the British Empire was on full display in his poem "Rangoon 1927," which describes both the city and the famed Strand Hotel, a popular gathering place for the colonial elite, in stark terms.

Yangon under British rule where the colonized were compelled to address the colonizers as Thakin ("lord" or "master") was, in Neruda's words, a place "Where a white hotel for whites / and a gilded pagoda for golden people / was as much as happened / and did not happen."

Neruda's aversion to the colonial overlords appears to have been mutual as, according to the poet, he was ostracized for associating with the locals, including his Myanmar lover who was the inspiration for several of his well-known poems.

Being shunned by most other westerners in Yangon didn't seem to bother the then-diplomat too much. "Those intolerant Europeans were not very interesting," he recounted decades later. "And, after all, I had not come to the Orient to spend my life with transient colonizers, but rather with the ancient spirit of that world, with that large, hapless human family."

Neruda wrote evocatively of Myanmar's bustling, multiethnic colonial capital:

"The street became my religion. The Burmese street, the Chinese quarter with its open-air theatres and paper dragons and splendid lanterns. The Hindu street, the humblest of them, with its temples operated as a business by one caste, and the poor people prostrate in the mud outside. Markets where the betel leaves rose up in green pyramids like mountains of malachite. The stalls and pens where they sold wild animals and birds. The winding streets where supple Burmese women walked with long cheroots in their mouths. All this engrossed me and drew me gradually under the spell of real life."

However, a letter he wrote to his half-sister Laurita from Yangon gives a slightly different picture. "Life in Rangoon is a terrible exile, I wasn't born to spend my life in such a hell," complained the young Neruda.

Love and Inspiration

His posting in Yangon was of a very low grade that didn't even provide him with a stipend. "I lived in the greatest poverty and in even greater solitude. For weeks I didn't see another human being," Neruda would later recall in a 1971 interview with the Paris Review.

But being in Yangon did provide Neruda the opportunity to fall in love. Nearly all accounts of his Myanmar lover are from his own writing, and no photo or other independent records verifying her existence appear to have survived. "She dressed in the English style, and her street name was Josie Bliss; but in the privacy of her house, which I soon came to occupy, she slipped out of this impersonation and this name and reverted to an eye-filling sarong and her Burmese name."

Neruda frequently described his relationship with Josie Bliss in dramatic terms, portraying her as an intensely jealous woman who would stalk him around the house. His 1928 poem "Tango del Viudo" ("Widower's tango")—inspired by an incident involving Josie Bliss, a mosquito net and a knife—is according to Neruda scholar Jason Wilson, one of his "greatest poems."

While Josie Bliss may have been a great poetic inspiration, her intensity appears to have been too much for the intrepid Neruda. "Sweet Josie Bliss gradually became so brooding and possessive that her jealous tantrums turned into an illness. Except for this, perhaps I would have stayed with her forever," he wrote in "Memoirs." Eventually Neruda headed off to Ceylon where he took up another posting as honorary consul in Colombo.

But his departure was not the last he saw of Josie Bliss.

"Quite unexpectedly, my Burmese love, the torrential Josie Bliss, planted herself at my door again. She had made the long journey to Ceylon from her distant homeland," he wrote. "Thinking that rice grew only in Rangoon, she came with a rice-sack on her shoulders, our favorite records of Paul Robeson, and a long roll of bedding. From the front door, she proceeded to take in everything, then insulted and assaulted all who tried to get by, consumed by devouring jealousy; then she threatened to set fire to the house. One mild-mannered English lady who came to call she attacked with a large knife."

Eventually Ms. Bliss returned home but the young Neruda found his "heart acquired a scar that has not healed." In 1957, he returned to Myanmar for a visit but was unable to locate her. His unsuccessful search inspired another poem "Regreso a una ciudad" ("Return to a city").

Ms. Bliss continued to influence the poet's work for the rest of his life. In a 1964 poem titled "Amores: Josie Bliss," Neruda recounts his deep regret for leaving the woman he had earlier dubbed his "amorous terrorist." "I wanted to tell her that I too / suffered: / it's not enough: / he who wounds is wounded himself until death."

Neruda died in Chile, just 12 days after a coup on September 11, 1973, that drove his friend, the country's socialist president Salvador Allende, from power and installed military supremo Augusto Pinochet. The circumstances of his death, at age 69, led many close to him, including his widow and his driver, to conclude that Neruda—who was battling cancer at the time—had been secretly poisoned by General Pinochet's henchman.

The poet's funeral, held at his home shortly after it had been ransacked by Chilean troops, was the first act of public protest against General Pinochet's regime.

In 2013, a Chilean court ordered that Neruda's remains be exhumed in order to conduct forensic tests to determine if he was in fact poisoned. Although the tests proved inconclusive, the remains have yet to be reburied at the request of his family who are seeking further tests.

This article originally appeared in the June 2015 issue of The Irrawaddy magazine.

The post Neruda's Burmese Days appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

National News

National News


‘If you want clean water, don’t stir up the dirt’

Posted: 14 Jun 2015 08:51 PM PDT

U Tin Aye, chair of the Union Election Commission and a retired lieutenant general, talks to chief political correspondent Ei Ei Toe Lwin about the forthcoming elections – on his hopes that people will vote with their heads not hearts, why he does not see the right person to reform the country, how the Tatmadaw must accept the results of the vote, and on his life-long attachment to his military uniform.

No comment as NLD chief returns from China

Posted: 14 Jun 2015 08:46 PM PDT

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi returned to Yangon yesterday following her first visit to China, including talks with President Xi Jinping.

Fighting persists in Kokang despite rebels’ ceasefire offer

Posted: 14 Jun 2015 08:44 PM PDT

Fighting persisted in the Kokang border region over the weekend despite a unilateral ceasefire declared by ethnic Chinese rebels, with little sign so far that Myanmar intends to heed China's calls on both sides to negotiate a settlement.

Anti-UN banners dropped from Rakhine State protests

Posted: 14 Jun 2015 08:31 PM PDT

Thousands protests in nine townships, with largest demonstration held in state capital Sittwe amid heavy rain.


New travel law to give region governments more power

Posted: 14 Jun 2015 08:29 PM PDT

A new tourism law is to be submitted to parliament later this year, the government says.

Ministry of Health takes steps to avert MERS spread

Posted: 14 Jun 2015 08:27 PM PDT

As the death toll of the virus MERS-CoV edges toward 500, Myanmar health authorities have been tightening up their border procedures to protect the country from infection.

Shan Herald Agency for News

Shan Herald Agency for News


KOKANG CONFLICT: Rejection of unilateral ceasefire a wise choice?

Posted: 15 Jun 2015 03:49 AM PDT

It seems the Thein Sein regime's wait and see stance to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) unilateral ceasefire announcement is very short-lived. For shortly after the declaration, the Burma Army (BA), also known as Tatmadaw, launched two days long attacks on MNDAA positions near the China-Burma border post 111, north of Laukkai.
newspictures_june2011_sai-wansai
According to VOA, Burmese section, report of 13 June, Tun Myat Lin, secretary general and spokesman for MNDAA said: " Tatmadaw made military offensive with heavy weapons and infantry forces. It is the same today, at border post 111, in the north of Laukkai Township. Yesterday, there were offensives using infantry forces twice. Also today, as far as I know, the fighting is still going on. After we unilaterally declare ceasefire, they started to attack. It is clear that they responded to our announcement with military offensives."

When Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei's was asked, regarding the MNDAA unilateral ceasefire declaration, for China's comment, during the regular press conference on June 12, 2015, he replied:

"We have noted reports about the unilateral ceasefire announced by the relevant party involved in the conflicts in northern Myanmar. We welcome that and hope that warring parties in Myanmar could meet each other halfway, exercise restraint, cease the warfare as soon as possible and bring normal order back to the border area between China and Myanmar."
"The Chinese side holds a clear-cut stance on the issue of northern Myanmar. We support the settlement of disputes through peaceful negotiations by parties concerned in Myanmar, so as to realize peace and national reconciliation at an early date and keep the China-Myanmar border stable. It serves the common interests of the two sides. To make that happen, the Chinese side has played a constructive role in pushing forward the peace process in northern Myanmar at the request of the Myanmar side, and has been welcomed by the Myanmar side. Going forward, the Chinese side will continue to make positive efforts to that end."


Hardly had the Chinese endorsement of peaceful negotiations to end the conflict, following the Kokang's unilateral ceasefire declaration, was publicly made known, the BA launched massive military offensives, within a day of the announcement.

According to VOA, China-based Burma expert, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw interprets the situation as follows: " I see that the Burma Army doesn't seem to be ready for peace and cool down the armed conflicts, since they're creating armed conflicts, one after another. On the part of Kokang, they're only thinking and aiming at regaining a political space for themselves.

That's why they're initiating unilateral ceasefire, also, in part, according to China's pressure. But the Burmese regime and military seem more desirable to go on with the civil war. So it looks like, it is restarting the animosity. For China, if the civil war doesn't spill over into its territory, it is alright. It has already made necessary preparation for such eventuality. Since it has to observe non-interference of other country internal affairs, etc., it could be taken that China won't be more involved than this, at the moment."

BBC, Burmese section, of 13 June said that in the course of BA attacks on MNDAA positions along the border, stray bullets landing on Chinese soils were reported by the Kokang side, but couldn't be confirmed and received no response from government side either, when asked about it.

Accordingly, Min Zaw Oo, director of Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) said that the regime has no policy to implement ceasefire with the Kokang group; and that for the time being, it is only adhering to the 14 Ethnic Armed Organizations' (EAOs) ceasefire agreements and armed conflict deescalation agreement with the Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/KIA). Regarding Kokang, the regime is now only tackling the security issue, although the political dialogue door is opened, ceasefire arrangement still cannot be made; the government, the parliament and the military have no differences on this line of principle.
Apart from that the Kokang unilateral ceasefire declaration is seen as a sign of weakness from government quarters, interpreting that it has come up with such move for it is losing militarily, with the government troops retaking back most areas previously under MNDAA control.

The information minister, U Ye Htut, told BBC, on 11 June, that the regime will not tolerated infringement of national sovereignty of any group and that it will be met with military response. Besides, he stressed that MNDAA has started the fight.

On top of all these, Commander-in-Chief, Min Aung Hliang's latest interview with The Mainichi, on 12 June, clearly spelled out on what kind of political course that the military is determined to chart, regardless of President's peace process initiatives and political tug of war going on in today's Burma political arena.

He outlined that he is against constitutional amendments; fervent believer of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) or negotiated surrender of the EAOs; and a confessed follower of General Than Shwe, who is the architect of the present quasi-civilian regime, which would enable the military to dominate the country's political system and power for as long as it is necessary.

When asked if he means that this is not the right time to amend Section 436, he replied: " I have to say that this is not a suitable time yet for that."

The 2008, military drafted Constitution of chapter 12's article 436 gives the Burmese military an effective veto over constitutional amendments.

Regarding DDR, Min Aung Hliang said: "Due to my yielding to the wishes of the armed groups as much as I can, we are now at a stage where we could already sign a draft ceasefire agreement. The next step is having discussions. The most important issue would be security reconciliation. Roughly, we call it DDR (disarmament, demobilization and reintegration). This is a must. There are countries in this world where there are armed conflicts. Among these countries, those that could work on security reconciliation in time gained lasting peace, while others that could not did not gain lasting peace and still trying to solve their problems. Hence, it is necessary for ethnic armed groups to work on security reconciliation."

Min Aung Hlaing's security reconciliation is interpreted by the EAOs as "negotiated surrender", for they are for security sector reform (SSR), which aims at amending the present Burman-dominated army into a federal union army structure, where the EAOs will be integrated and become part of the federal union army, serving their respective homelands.

He also made his admiration and respect for General Than Shwe known, when he said: " Senior General Than Shwe also did his part, as much as he could, to transform the defense services into a modern one by leading the armed forces for many years. To tell the truth, the armed forces became modern due to his endeavors. He also put Myanmar on the path to democracy. We cannot forget his thankful deeds. He also did his best. The multi-party democratic path that he transformed could become firm as we carefully take control of it a bit."

Of course, many others see the senior General as the one who carefully prepare the transformation of the direct military dictatorship rule to a quasi-civilian regime to be more acceptable domestically and internationally, where the military will still be dominant in Burma's political arena for unforeseeable future.

Given such a backdrop, the regime's outright rejection of Kokang's unilateral ceasefire would mean that the border friction with China is programmed to reoccur again sooner or later, for stray bombs and bullets would definitely land on Chinese soil, as had happened many times during last few months, inflicting human and material causalities on the Chinese population along the border. This would inevitably prompt the Chinese to take action and no one knows what would follow, except that the conflict would become international, leading to more sophisticated consequences.

This attitude of "zero-sum" game would also exacerbate the already problematic situation to accommodate the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) amendments of EAOs, which clearly said that all-inclusive signing by all its members as a precondition to ratify the document. And finally, this will push the regime to employ other solution to achieve its goal-setting, which could be anything from unilaterally going it alone on its own agenda, or implementing its desired terms together with some EAOs that are willing to go along, including some political parties, to abandoning the whole peace process altogether.
Whatever the case, the regime should now earnestly rethink if it is worth to go on with its "total annihilation" policy of Kokang group at all cost, just to satisfy its ego and take revenge for its lost of face, regarding the massive human causalities inflicted upon BA, or agree with Kokang's peaceful overtures, China's constructive suggestion and end the conflict through negotiations.

As it stands, there is likelihood that the National League for Democracy (NLD) leader, Aung San Suu Kyi's might have carried messages from President Thein Sein and Min Aung Hliang, knowing that the Chinese would have a softer approach with her, according to a keen observer of Burma politics. He said: " Now that Peking has ordered the MNDAA to a unilateral ceasefire, Min Aung Hliang has changed his tune that the Kokang problem is mainly a domestic problem and China has no hand in it. No more declarations of encroachment of sovereignty and national security. Now let's wait and see what China's next move is."

The observer added: " The Commander-in-Chief wants to prove that his army is the almighty power that the Ethnic Nationalities must live to accept. The Independence Day Parade was a show of force and a warning that we will be punished with those weapons. He has new arms and reinforcements in the past 4 years and still has to prove himself."

While it is highly unlikely that BA will declare an outright ceasefire which would be a lost of pride and face, it certainly needs an outlet to come out of its own self-made rhetoric trap of "total annihilation" that it has entangled. But the sooner the pragmatic approach of reconciliation through negotiation is employed to defuse the warring situation, the better the political climate will develop for Burma as a whole.

It is now up to the Commander-in-Chief and the President to decide.

The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU) — Editor