Thursday, October 1, 2015

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine


Burmese-Only Jade Sale Pegged for December

Posted: 01 Oct 2015 05:01 AM PDT

Gem traders inspect a raw jade stone at the gem emporium in Naypyidaw in 2013. (Photo: Sanay Lin / The Irrawaddy)

Gem traders inspect a raw jade stone at the gem emporium in Naypyidaw in 2013. (Photo: Sanay Lin / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — The Myanmar Gems Enterprise will hold the year's first and only jade sale exclusively for local traders in Naypyidaw this December, with industry players hoping to see more purchases of raw jade and jadeite made with value-added intentions.

In Thursday's state-run newspapers, the Ministry of Mines' Myanmar Gems Enterprise announced that the central committee of its subsidiary Myanma Gems Emporium would organize the sale of raw jade stones and jadeite at Mani Yadana Jade Hall in Naypyidaw from Dec. 7-13.

The Myanmar Gems Enterprise typically aims to hold jade sales for only local traders at least twice a year, but the December showcase will be the only one for 2015.

According to the announcement from the Myanmar Gems Enterprise, Burmese citizens for whom one of the following applies are eligible to attend the sale: licensed jade and gem mining operators; licensed businessmen engaged in manufacturing, selling and buying of finished jade and gems products; those who hold a gems company registration; and members of the Myanmar Gems and Jewelry Entrepreneurs Association.

Tun Hla Aung, joint secretary of the Myanmar Gems and Jewelry Entrepreneurs Association, said organizers were hoping to encourage more emphasis on local entrepreneurs adding value to raw cuts of the precious stones on offer.

"We want local traders to produce more value-added jade accessories; that's why we aimed to hold this kind of sale at least once per year, but it has been delayed due to various things," he said.

"We expect that there will many quality raw jades on display," he added.

The supply side of Burma's jade market has bounced back since the September 2014 lifting of a suspension of jade mining operations in Kachin State amid fighting between the government and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in recent years.

Foreigners are invited to bid on jade and jadeite at an annual jade emporium, usually held mid-year. This year's emporium, held from June 24 to July 6 in Naypyidaw, saw a total of 8,934 jade lots and about 320 lots of various other gems, including highly coveted Mogok rubies, on offer.

Tun Hla Aung said it was too early to speculate on the December jade showcase.

More than 2,000 local traders attended the annual emporium earlier this year, and the association leader said similar attendance was expected for the Burmese-only sale.

The post Burmese-Only Jade Sale Pegged for December appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Burmese Investigators Urge Public to Monitor Koh Tao Trial

Posted: 01 Oct 2015 04:33 AM PDT

 The Burma Embassy's special team, which is working on the Koh Tao case are seen outside of the Koh Samui Court on Wednesday. (Photo: Min Oo / Facebook)

The Burma Embassy's special team, which is working on the Koh Tao case are seen outside of the Koh Samui Court on Wednesday. (Photo: Min Oo / Facebook)

RANGOON — Two migrant workers accused of a grisly dual murder on a Thai island are innocent and should be cleared of all charges, a team of investigators representing the Burmese government told reporters in Rangoon on Thursday, urging the public to monitor the case as it continues later this month.

Zaw Lin and Win Zaw Htun were arrested in late 2014 after the mutilated bodies of two British tourists—Hannah Witheridge and David Miller—were discovered on a beach in Koh Tao, southern Thailand. A postmortem examination revealed that Witheridge had been raped.

The gruesome murder and subsequent trial has raised questions about Thailand's safety as a tourist destination, the competence of its police force and its treatment of migrant workers.

Observers close to the case claim the suspects—both migrant workers from western Burma's Arakan State—were convenient scapegoats.

The trial has also been riddled with ambiguity and accusations of foul play; the suspects initially confessed to Thai police officers but later said they had been tortured in detention.

A translator hired to assist with the investigation was later revealed to be a Rohingya Muslim who was fluent in neither Thai nor the suspects' native Arakanese.

Htoo Chit, a migrant rights advocate who leads the investigation team formed by the Burmese Embassy in Thailand, said evidence was overwhelmingly in favor of the defendants and that the Thai justice system should declare them innocent.

"At first, they confessed because they were tortured and threatened in police custody, but they told us everything because they trust us," Htoo Chit said. "I believe they are innocent and will be free soon, but we must monitor [the decision of the court] and whether they are acquitted."

The most crucial piece of evidence in the trial, Htoo Chit said, was a DNA test administered by Thai investigators that has come under increasing scrutiny. A typical DNA identification can take about 20 days, he said, though the Thai investigators had completed the match in only three.

Esteemed Thai forensic pathologist Dr. Pornthip Rojanasunan, who was called in by the defense team to carry out an independent inquiry, recently told the court that the assumed murder weapon showed no trace of DNA belonging to either of the suspects.

The trial, which has garnered international attention over the past year since the suspects' detention, will continue on Oct. 10 and 11, and is expected to reach a verdict by the end of this year.

The post Burmese Investigators Urge Public to Monitor Koh Tao Trial appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Man Killed, Woman Gang-Raped in Capital: Police

Posted: 01 Oct 2015 04:11 AM PDT

 Vehicles drive down a road in Burma's administrative capital Naypyidaw. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

Vehicles drive down a road in Burma's administrative capital Naypyidaw. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — A group of four assailants fatally stabbed a man and gang-raped his partner early Wednesday morning near an area slated to serve as a quarter for diplomatic residences in Naypyidaw's Dekkhinathiri Township, according to township police.

The couple was threatened at knifepoint and brought to the area by four men riding two motorbikes near the capital's Junction Center shopping mall at about 1 am on Wednesday.

The couple lived in the village of Thabyaybin in neighboring Lewe Township.

The attackers bludgeoned and stabbed the man before gang-raping the woman, according to the surviving victim's report to police.

"The girl then ran away and reached a security guard. Then she got to the police station in the morning," a police officer from the Dekkhinathiri Township Police Force told The Irrawaddy.  "Police went to the crime scene and found the body of the male victim. We have turned the girl over to her parents and we are investigating the case."

The male victim was found with multiple stab wounds and police have opened a case on charges of murder and rape. No suspects have yet been detained in connection with the attack.

According to the Naypyidaw Police Force, Burma saw 654 cases of reported rape nationwide in 2012, rising to 734 in 2013. Through July of last year—the most recent data provided—a total of 470 rape cases were filed.

The post Man Killed, Woman Gang-Raped in Capital: Police appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Ethnic Armed Groups Take Stock After Ceasefire Rift

Posted: 01 Oct 2015 04:05 AM PDT

Representatives from the Karen National Union at an ethnic summit in Chiang Mai, Thailand, on Wednesday. (Photo: Nyein Nyein / The Irrawaddy)

Representatives from the Karen National Union at an ethnic summit in Chiang Mai, Thailand, on Wednesday. (Photo: Nyein Nyein / The Irrawaddy)

CHIANG MAI, Thailand — The united front that ethnic armed groups have striven to maintain during almost two years of negotiations on a nationwide ceasefire agreement was upended this week, as ethnic groups were split on whether to ink an agreement the government is desperate to conclude this month.

After a three-day summit in Chiang Mai which the Karen National Union insisted should be the last before a potential signing ceremony, only seven of 19 ethnic groups agreed to accede to the agreement.

On Wednesday, ethnic leaders focused on building mutual understanding between the two factions, with those holdout groups pledging to sign as soon as the government accepted all armed groups as signatories.

Gen Gun Maw, deputy chief-of-staff of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), told The Irrawaddy the nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) would not live up to its "nationwide" label unless all stakeholders were included.

"We have discussed this several times during past summits. If only some groups sign, they will just be signing the NCA-draft and it will not be regarded as a nationwide accord," he said.

"But if the government accepts our [demand] for all-inclusivity, we would sign the NCA."

The government has only accepted the 14 ethnic armed groups that have previously inked bilateral ceasefires with Naypyidaw since 2011, in addition to the KIO, as signatories.

Three armed groups locked in ongoing conflict with government troops, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Arakan Army, have been excluded.

The government has also refused to accept noncombatant groups, the Lahu Democratic Union (LDU), Wa National Organization (WNO) and Arakan National Council (ANC), as signatories.

Gun Maw said the KIO would not be pressured into signing the NCA while conflict continued between the Burma Army and Kachin, Ta'ang, Shan and Kokang armed groups.

During talks on Wednesday, ethnic leaders agreed to dissolve the recently reconstituted negotiating bloc known as the Senior Delegation (SD).

"Our SD has completed its task to finalize the NCA-single text, which has 15 chapters and 33 articles," said Pu Zing Cung, secretary of the Chin National Front and a former SD member.

The ethnics' Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team would continue to function, Pu Zing Cung said, to complete negotiations on the framework for political dialogue, a code of conduct and the formation of a joint monitoring committee.

"We will continue negotiations with the government [to discuss including members of] those groups that have not yet signed on upcoming committees for drafting the political framework, the CoC and the JMC," he said.

On Tuesday, seven ethnic armed groups agreed to sign the accord: the All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF); Arakan Liberation Party (ALP); Chin National Front (CNF); Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA); Karen National Liberation Army-Peace Council (KNLA-PC); Karen National Union (KNU); and the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO).

But major armed groups, including the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the New Mon State Party (NMSP), the Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP) and the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), declined to sign until the agreement was open to all.

The Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), which has clashed on multiple occasions with the Burma Army in recent weeks, has not yet revealed its intentions.

At a Sept. 9 meeting in Naypyidaw between President Thein Sein and the leaders of nine ethnic armed groups, the former pledged to address the issue of incorporating non-ceasefire groups into the peace process.

However, over the ensuing weeks, ethnic groups' claim there was no further communication with the president on the issue, leaving the last major obstacle to an all-inclusive signing unaddressed.

Nai Htaw Mon, the chair of another holdout group, the NMSP, said in a closing speech on Wednesday that the ethnics' divergence on the ceasefire pact had endangered ongoing collaboration.

"Although the majority of [ethnic armed groups] are unable to sign yet, we had to follow the minorities' desires for the sake of our future unity," he said.

However, most ethnic leaders were reluctant to openly criticize the decisions of other ethnic armed groups.

For the political dialogue slated to follow the ceasefire signing, the government has stipulated that non-NCA signees can participate only as observers. However, the three non-armed groups outside the NCA process—the LDU, WNO and ANC—would be accepted as full participants.

Kyu Dui, secretary of the Lahu Democratic Union, told The Irrawaddy that, if invited, his group would join the dialogue.

 

The post Ethnic Armed Groups Take Stock After Ceasefire Rift appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Mon Leader Slams Divisions Over Ceasefire Signing

Posted: 01 Oct 2015 12:46 AM PDT

Nai Htaw Mon, chairman of the New Mon State Party, during an ethnic summit in Chiang Mai, northern Thailand, this week. (Photo: Kyaw Kha / The Irrawaddy)

Nai Htaw Mon, chairman of the New Mon State Party, during an ethnic summit in Chiang Mai, northern Thailand, this week. (Photo: Kyaw Kha / The Irrawaddy)

A leading member of the New Mon State Party has hit out at the decision of some ethnic armed groups to sign the nationwide ceasefire agreement, calling the decision-making process undemocratic.

Of the 19 ethnic armed groups represented at a three-day meeting in northern Thailand which began on Monday, only seven indicated they would sign the much debated pact.

"Only a minority will sign the ceasefire agreement. But we, the majority, had to [allow] their wishes for the sake of unity. It is not democratic," said Nai Htaw Mon, chairman of the New Mon State Party (NMSP). "It is our weakness that we have to follow the interests of the minority."

Speaking at the ethnic summit in Chiang Mai on Wednesday, the NMSP chairman said ethnic leaders should look beyond narrow business interests and personal gain and consider ethnic unity.

"We shouldn't focus on our own interests. We shouldn't forget our roots. We shouldn't forget our ethnic fellows," Nai Htaw Mon said.

The NMSP is one of a handful of major ethnic armed groups, alongside the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP) and the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), that have withheld support for a ceasefire that the government hopes to conclude in October.

The seven groups backing the agreement are: the All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF); Arakan Liberation Party (ALP); Chin National Front (CNF); Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA); Karen National Liberation Army-Peace Council (KNLA-PC); Karen National Union (KNU); and the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO).

Nai Htaw Mon warned that those ethnic groups committed to signing the pact should temper their expectations of the incumbent quasi-civilian government.

"As [the government] didn't amend the constitution, can we be sure that we will get what we want? We have to consider it carefully," he said.

The post Mon Leader Slams Divisions Over Ceasefire Signing appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

At the Khun Sa Museum, the House that Drugs Built

Posted: 01 Oct 2015 12:41 AM PDT

Click to view slideshow.

CHIANG RAI PROVINCE, Thailand — Nestled under a dense canopy of trees in a valley between the hills of the Thai-Burma border, the military camp of Ban Therd Thai village once hosted one of the most lucrative drug-running empires in history.

It is now home to a museum celebrating the life of its commander, once a towering figure in the global heroin trade, who enjoyed the protection of the former junta and was as admired by his acolytes and his community as much as he was reviled by Western governments.

Khun Sa, the Shan-Chinese warlord who monopolized the Golden Triangle's opium harvest between the 1970s and the 1990s, is now immortalized in a statue at the entrance of the former camp, sitting astride a horse in a pose reserved for stone tributes of decorated military leaders in other countries.

Before his surrender to the Burmese government in 1996, reputedly to escape extradition to the US on drugs charges, Khun Sa's camp was home to thousands of soldiers of the Mong Tai Army. Underground prison cells, each little more than a hole in the ground, held three prisoners in each bunker, usually soldiers who had violated the warlord's rules. Those soldiers responsible for graver crimes—such as using drugs, committing rape or selling their arms to enemy forces, were summarily executed.

Inside Khun Sa's own spartan quarters, mementos of the late militia leader's life have been hung on display as relics. In his bedroom alongside his military uniform and a number of traditional Shan costumes are his walking stick and sword, while in the living room next door is another imposing sculpture of the man himself, seated with legs crossed at the table where he received distinguished guests.

Khun Sa's control of the regional drug trade was notorious worldwide, and at the peak of his power he is believed to have commanded over 20,000 men. Over the course of the 1980s, heroin trafficked by the Mong Tai Army came to dominate global supply to the United States and other Western countries, leading the US Drug Enforcement Administration to unsuccessfully attempt his extradition. At numerous points he proposed selling his opium crop to Western countries in exchange for dismantling his trafficking empire.

Locally, Khun Sa is remembered in a different light, with those who knew him before his death in 2007 fondly recalling him as a patriotic and charismatic leader

Sai Khur Lurn, who served as a teacher under the Mong Tai Army, has worked to restore and maintain the old camp, turning it into a museum that seeks to promote the drug baron's legacy amongst the younger generation in eastern Shan State and Thailand.

"People from his drug network pointed their fingers to him, so he was branded as an opium kingpin," Khur Lurn claimed. "Actually, he just collected tax from drug dealers and provided security for drug trafficking route."

"He did it because he needed money for his army. He didn’t use the money for himself alone. He built schools, clinics, monasteries, and houses for orphans wherever he was based."

The post At the Khun Sa Museum, the House that Drugs Built appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

SE Asia Seeks New Strategy to Fight ‘Slash and Burn’ Haze Problem

Posted: 30 Sep 2015 10:43 PM PDT

 A tourist wearing a face mask passes the hazy skyline of the Marina Bay Sands casino and resort in Singapore on June 18, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

A tourist wearing a face mask passes the hazy skyline of the Marina Bay Sands casino and resort in Singapore on June 18, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

KUALA LUMPUR — As a blanket of haze, caused by thick smoke from forest fires in Indonesia, covers parts of Southeast Asia, the region is struggling to find an effective response to the problem, experts said.

The haze has caused health problems, flight delays and school closures across Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore in what has become an annual ordeal that has defied attempts by governments, businesses and green groups to tackle it.

At the heart of the problem are palm oil plantation owners, who use cheap and easy slash-and-burn techniques to clear forests and meet rising global demand for the oil used for cooking and in household products from shampoo to ice cream.

Experts stress that Indonesia, home to the world's third-largest tropical forest acreage, holds the key to the problem and needs to put into practice a long-term plan to enforce laws, tackle the fires and spend more on prevention.

Margareth Sembiring, senior analyst at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the complexity of the issue means it is difficult to make the region haze-free.

"Strengthening law enforcement in Indonesia is undoubtedly key in solving the problem," she said.

Other experts say companies and consumers must also play a part by pushing for palm oil to be produced more sustainably.

Environmental groups like Greenpeace have targeted companies in high-profile campaigns, and some firms have made commitments to help stop deforestation by palm oil plantation owners.

Golden Agri-Resources, the world's second-largest listed palm planter by acreage, said last week it had stopped buying from a supplier punished by Indonesia for allegedly causing forest fires.

Indonesia, the world's fifth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, mainly from deforestation, will be one of the countries under scrutiny at December's UN climate change conference, which will try to get legally binding commitments from the 120 member nations to cut CO2 emissions.

Under criticism from its neighbors, the government has investigated more than 200 companies and ordered four to suspend operations for allegedly causing forest fires as it scrambles to control blazes on Sumatra and Kalimantan islands.

Weak law enforcement in Indonesia is exacerbated by a lack of transparency about land ownership, making it harder to pinpoint and punish perpetrators, experts said.

"Without a centralized, public map that shows resource ownership, it will remain hard to find the offending companies or landowners," said Andika Putraditama, Indonesia research analyst at the World Resources Institute (WRI).

Indonesia last December launched its long-awaited "One Map" initiative, a comprehensive map of land ownership to provide clarity on the boundaries of land owned by companies, communities and the government.

It is due to be completed in two to three years, but progress has been hampered by overlapping land use permits and other technical issues, experts said.

Environment and Forestry Minister Siti Nurbaya Bakar said her ministry had given all data about the permits it had issued to the economy ministry, which is coordinating the project.

"Basically, we want early prevention [of the fires], if possible starting now," she said in response to questions put by the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

She declined to comment on questions about the budget for fire prevention and efforts to make land allocation more transparent.

Slow Regional Efforts

Indonesia in 2014 became the last country to ratify the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' (Asean) transboundary agreement to tackle haze, some 12 years after it was launched.

The accord calls for concerted regional efforts to prevent or put out the fires—but every year June-September monsoon winds send thick smoke from Indonesia to Malaysia and Singapore.

"It is important to understand that Asean stands on a sovereignty principle," said Sembiring. "The onus is on all member states to develop their own national policies and programs based on the agreement and implement them accordingly."

Singapore went further after a surge in forest fires in Indonesia engulfed it in particularly thick haze in 2013, causing record levels of air pollution.

The city state passed a law last year that allows it to sue companies or individuals—based in any country—that cause haze, a step that other nations could emulate to boost enforcement, Sembiring said.

The haze has also led to calls for a boycott of products containing palm oil, but green groups say a more effective approach would be to boost sustainable production.

The rapid growth of palm oil plantations, now covering over 11 million hectares in Indonesia—an area bigger than Iceland—has been a leading cause of fires and deforestation.

Demand for sustainable palm oil is rising, and around a fifth of the world's palm oil is now certified as such by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), a body of consumers, green groups, plantation firms and consumer goods companies.

RSPO standards require its members to stop cutting virgin forest, produce or source oil only from land to which growers have clear rights, and not to clear land by burning.

Through satellite data and online maps the RSPO has tracked the origins of the current haze. The data showed no fire alerts at RSPO-certified palm oil concessions between January and August, compared with 627 at those without certification.

The post SE Asia Seeks New Strategy to Fight 'Slash and Burn' Haze Problem appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

East Timor Primed for Legal Tussle with Australia

Posted: 30 Sep 2015 10:24 PM PDT

Australia's Foreign Minister Julie Bishop speaks during an ASEAN-Australia ministerial meeting at the Myanmar International Convention Centre in Naypyidaw, August 10, 2014. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

Australia's Foreign Minister Julie Bishop speaks during an ASEAN-Australia ministerial meeting at the Myanmar International Convention Centre in Naypyidaw, August 10, 2014. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

Thirteen years after winning independence from Indonesia, East Timor has to wage another struggle for justice with a more powerful neighbor—but this time in the courts, the nation's prime minister says.

After two years of inconclusive technical talks, East Timor last week announced it was initiating arbitration with Australia on jurisdiction of a seabed petroleum field—the latest round of litigation in a messy dispute between the two countries over how they split lucrative oil and gas revenues.

"We are claiming what belongs to us. It's an issue of sovereignty and an issue of justice," said Prime Minister Rui Maria de Araujo, who took office in February after independence hero Xanana Gusmao resigned to make way for a new generation of Timorese leaders.

Araujo spoke to The Associated Press Wednesday on the sidelines of the annual meeting of world leaders at the UN.

East Timor, an impoverished nation of 1.1 million, became a sovereign state in 2002. It depends on petroleum revenues for 90 percent of its economy and is concerned that funds could dry up within years.

In the new litigation, East Timor is disputing Australia's exclusive right to the jurisdiction and taxation of the pipeline leading into a joint petroleum development area.

Australia said last week it will defend against the legal action. It said that the treaty under which the two nations divide the revenues states that jurisdiction depends on where the pipeline lands, which is in northern Australia.

East Timor has already challenged the validity of the 2006 treaty.

It contends that Australia spied on it during negotiations for the treaty. And in 2013, it launched a legal action at the International Court of Justice after Australian police seized documents from a lawyer representing East Timor who allegedly witnessed the spying. The court banned Australia from using the seized documents and it returned them to East Timor.

Araujo said the crux of the dispute with Australia is over where the maritime border in the Timor Sea lies. The territory jointly administered by the two countries currently follows a boundary set in 1972 when East Timor was still occupied by Indonesia. That boundary is much closer to the coast of East Timor than Australia. East Timor wants it to be set at a median line between them, so more of the petroleum fields would lie in its waters, so it would earn more revenue.

In June, Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop told parliament that Australia would resist East Timor's effort to redraw the sea border between the nations as delineated under the 2006 treaty. She said the treaty was already generous enough.

Under the current arrangements, revenues from the Bayu Undan gas and condensate field that has been exploited for the past decade are divided up 90-10 in East Timor's favor. But Araujo said the field has passed its peak production and is expected to dry up within five to ten years.

Revenues from the planned Greater Sunrise field would be split 50-50, but 80 percent of the field lies in Australian waters so it would earn the lion's share if production starts.

Araujo says despite the political disagreement over the oil revenues and maritime border, relations with Australia are good, and he has invited new Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to visit East Timor.

Still, Araujo likens the long-running legal travails to the 24-year armed struggle against Indonesian occupation that had left more than 170,000 dead—a struggle that few outsiders expected East Timor to win, until a UN-administered referendum in which its people voted for independence in 1999.

"People were pessimistic, saying that Indonesia will never go out from East Timor because all the big Western powers were supporting Indonesia. The only thing we used as a strong moral and political motivating factor was international law," he said.

"It may sound rhetorical, but we think that we are in the right side again."

The post East Timor Primed for Legal Tussle with Australia appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Rising Anger in Thailand’s Boom-to-Bust Northeast

Posted: 30 Sep 2015 10:13 PM PDT

 Rice mill workers react in a mill in Udon Thani, Thailand, September 16, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

Rice mill workers react in a mill in Udon Thani, Thailand, September 16, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

KHON KAEN, Thailand — The rural heartland of Thailand's deposed leader Yingluck Shinawatra and her exiled billionaire brother Thaksin is hurting as a result of the military government's economic policies, stirring discontent and the threat of protests.

The removal of generous agricultural subsidies has left rice farmers in northeast Thailand struggling with mounting debts, and they will get little relief when they sell their crop in coming months with rice prices near an 8-year low.

Petty crime is on the rise and retailers are struggling. The vast Platinum 168 shopping mall on the outskirts of the provincial capital of Udon Thani was built during the boom, but it is now less than a third occupied and no longer charging tenants rent.

"People are complaining about the rising costs of living, of having no money for spending," said Teerasak Teecayuphan, the mayor of the neighboring provincial capital of Khon Kaen. "Their patience will gradually run out. Sooner or later this pot will boil over."

Thaksin's "red shirts", many of whom hail from the northeast, have punctuated a decade of political turmoil in Thailand with protests on Bangkok's streets.

Military attempts to disperse 10 weeks of protests in 2010 left scores dead and sparked the worst arson and rioting in Thailand's modern history.

Thaksin has told his supporters to stay calm and "play dead", but some in Thailand's poorest region say it is only a matter of time before discontent overcomes fear of the military and people again take to the streets.

"People want to protest," said Sabina Shah, a local leader of Thaksin's "red shirt" supporters in Khon Kaen.

"But we have to wait for the right trigger. If we come out now in small numbers it's suicide. We are just lying low and waiting for the opportunity—when the government argue among themselves."

The military toppled Yingluck's government in a May 2014 coup and have zealously enforced a ban on political activity.

Both Shinawatras mobilized the rural poor to deliver landslide electoral victories with a mixture of development projects, social benefits and subsidies.

Many in the northeast, also known as Isaan, think they are paying an economic price for their political allegiance.

Coup leader and Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha represents a largely Bangkok-based establishment that reviles the Shinawatras' populist policies and is threatened by their rural support base.

His government has been austere in support for agriculture, which accounts for just under 10 percent of the country's economy.

"It is quite bad for farmers, we have heavy debt," said Pursudar Koyto, in Ban Kampom, a village surrounded by verdant rice paddy fields nearly ready to harvest. "Prayuth's government could have done more, like what they did in the Thaksin era."

While incomes improved under the Shinawatras, household incomes in Isaan are still the lowest in Thailand at just over 19,000 baht (US$522.98) per month. That is less than half the 43,000 baht of the Bangkok region, according to government statistics for 2013, the latest data available.

Military Warns of National Fallout

The junta has now made an about-turn on policy to breathe life into a moribund economy and head off rising discontent.

Prayuth in August appointed Somkid Jatusripitak—one of the architects of Thaksin's policies—as his economic tsar.

Somkid has prioritized reviving the rural economy, which employs nearly 40 percent of the workforce.

"They are suffering," he told Reuters in an interview. "If these people don't have enough purchasing power it will hurt the whole system."

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy has undershot government targets. The central bank cut its GDP growth forecast to 2.7 percent from 3 percent on Sept. 25, and to 3.7 percent from 4.1 percent for 2016. In 2014, growth was the slowest in three years at 0.9 percent.

Somkid has announced a raft of measures, including soft loans through village funds, but the jury is still out on whether he can spur more growth. Somkid said he would inject more cash into the rural economy if needed.

Worse to Come

The signs of economic malaise in Isaan are widespread. Private investment, vehicle sales and property values have all fallen and farmers in the world's second-largest rice exporter expect things to get worse before they get better.

Cash is already running out and many are selling cars and land to repay loans. Credit is scarce as banks tighten lending to battle rising bad debt.

"I have to borrow to pay some debt back every year," said rice farmer Khamkong Banphod, in the village of Ku Kaew near Udon Thani.

"Those facing hardship are the people who invested a lot of money and are now facing losses. They have their debt problems and are angry with the government."

The margin for millers has been razor-thin since subsidies ended, said Somsak Tungphitukkul, who owns rice mills in Khon Kaen province. Many mills cannot turn a profit and have been mothballed or closed, he said.

"It's going to be a nightmare for the rice industry if the government doesn't do something when the new crop comes in," he said.

The post Rising Anger in Thailand's Boom-to-Bust Northeast appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

In Burma, Hell in a Very Small Place

Posted: 30 Sep 2015 10:01 PM PDT

CAPTION:  Muslim Rohingya women look out from the front of their home at Aung Mingalar quarter in Sittwe, August 13, 2013. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

Muslim Rohingya women look out from the front of their home at Aung Mingalar quarter in Sittwe, August 13, 2013. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

There is no starker evidence of the ethnic cleansing that rocked the Arakan State capital, Sittwe, in Burma in 2012 than the Rohingya Muslim enclave of Aung Mingalar.

Crammed into a couple short blocks in the town center, ringed by police and army checkpoints, Aung Mingalar was a middle-class neighborhood of traders and shop owners with Buddhist and Hindu neighbors before the communal violence that killed hundreds and displaced over 140,000.

One village elder told me the people of Aung Mingalar defended the perimeter from Arakanese Buddhist attackers "and the Tatmadaw [Burmese military] arrived in time and we worked together to save our area."

Since then, Aung Mingalar has been closed off from the rest of the city—and essentially the rest of the world. With the population down from 8,000 in 2012, it now contains 4,500 residents who live in almost total isolation.

Many children look malnourished. There are open sewers. Many residents, who might smile at the few foreigners granted permission to visit, look scared and haunted. Many expressed fear of being attacked again by their Buddhist neighbors living just streets away.

Government officials appear genuine in guaranteeing the safety of the people here, and there have been no attacks since 2012. But that approach is clearly operating in parallel to a scheme to make life so miserable that residents will leave for rural camps or join the maritime exodus of Rohingya that dramatically increased in 2015.

The enclave has a primary school and some rudimentary shops. A couple of times a week, residents can visit markets to buy food in the camp zone for internally displaced people that rings Sittwe, where 95,000 Rohingya live—but  they have to pay for a police security escort.

The government has presented the people of Aung Mingalar with a cruel Catch-22 in what passes for citizenship policy in Burma. After being granted voting rights in the 2008 referendum and the 2010 elections, many Rohingya were this year stripped of their temporary ID cards, a mass disenfranchisement.

They have been urged to enter a verification process to determine their citizenship eligibility, but can succeed only as long as they identify themselves as "Bengali," not Rohingya, and can miraculously qualify under the draconian 1982 Citizenship Law. Even if some get full citizenship, this is unlikely to guarantee full respect for their rights as anti-Muslim ultra-nationalism grows in Burma.

As the people of Sittwe head to vote in the national elections on November 8, the people of Aung Mingalar, in their isolation and squalor, will look out and see clearly the government's intention to deny them their basic freedoms.

David Scott Mathieson is Senior Researcher, Asia Division, with Human Rights Watch. This article first appeared here as one of HRW's "dispatches."

The post In Burma, Hell in a Very Small Place appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

National News

National News


Land-grab communities hope for election saviour

Posted: 30 Sep 2015 09:02 PM PDT

Daw Naw Kapaw Lay La, 55, clasps her hands together and gazes longingly out at the green forest in front of her, before closing her eyes.

Watch out for invalid and advance votes: NLD patron

Posted: 30 Sep 2015 08:57 PM PDT

National League for Democracy patron U Tin Oo told supporters in Kyaukse that 2015 will be a "lucky" and "important" year for the party, but also warned of the need to be vigilant about invalid and advanced votes in the November 8 election.

Ceasefire process not derailed, government aides insist

Posted: 30 Sep 2015 08:48 PM PDT

Myanmar's peace process will continue to the next stages of political dialogue, advisers to the government said yesterday, even though only a minority of armed ethnic groups have agreed so far to sign what was intended to be a nationwide ceasefire accord.

Payday unpleasant surprise for workers

Posted: 30 Sep 2015 08:45 PM PDT

Despite enactment of minimum wage, many employees have found their income unchanged as factory bosses cut bonuses and overtime pay.

Nation’s oldest citizens to receive cash offerings

Posted: 30 Sep 2015 08:37 PM PDT

A ceremony to pay homage to the elderly will be held in Nay Pyi Taw today to mark the International Day of Older Persons.

Delco to resume mining after paying US$5450 for child’s death

Posted: 30 Sep 2015 08:35 PM PDT

Despite the payout, some local residents say they intend to launch a campaign to have the mine shut down.

Dengue fever outbreak sweeps the region, sets local record

Posted: 30 Sep 2015 08:32 PM PDT

The virus has been particularly problematic in the areas of the country hardest hit by flooding in August.

Motorbike numbers take off

Posted: 30 Sep 2015 08:29 PM PDT

Motorbike numbers have more than doubled in the past three years, despite still being banned in most parts of Yangon.

Land return was not campaigning: minister

Posted: 30 Sep 2015 08:28 PM PDT

Mandalay Region Chief Minister U Ye Myint has denied accusations that he returned confiscated land to farmers in Pyin Oo Lwin in order to help his chances of re-election.

Shan Herald Agency for News

Shan Herald Agency for News


“I joined politics to amend the 2008 Constitution”: Nang Mya Oo, SNLD Candidate

Posted: 01 Oct 2015 06:54 AM PDT

Nang Mya Oo is one of 24 female candidates from the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), who will be competing for a State Assembly seat in Taunggyi Township Constituency No. 1 in the November 8 general election.



In the interview, 46-year-old community advocate-turned-politician Nang Mya Oo discusses the role of women in politics and the challenges she faces as a female candidate.


Q: What was your role in the community before you became a politician?


A: I joined the Shan Literature and Culture Association in Taunggyi in 2005. During that time, I was responsible for youth leaders. Later on, I was promoted to be the association secretary. At the same time, I helped at the Namkhong Organization, a healthcare services group.


Q: When did you become involved in politics?


A: The reason I became involved in politics is that I have been working in the community for over 10 years. While I was working, I questioned why other people gave our land to other people—I really didn't understand. Since then I tried to study this issue and found out that the cause was the 2008 Constitution.


Another reason is that our leaders were put in prison. Each of them was sentenced to over 90 years and together they were sentenced to over 1000 years in prison. These reasons stuck in my heart. I realized that working in the community alone could not change anything about the 2008 Constitution. So it was then that I began to understand that the only way to make a change was to work in politics.


There was also no good education available to us. The Burma military has their own hospital but not one for us. I felt like there was no equality.


Q: if you won the election what would be your priority?


A: If I won, I would be put at the Shan State government level…But our priority is to amend the 2008 Constitution, we will be working together from both houses (Upper House and Lower House).


There are also other issues that we will have to deal with such as ongoing fighting and education development, and so on. However, we cannot do anything without solving the 2008 Constitution issue. We will keep fighting.


Q: There are two main Shan parties. Why did you choose to join SNLD?


A: Actually I was one of the team members helping SNDP (the Shan National Democratic Party) when it started. But, I was not ready to join because I was a member of Shan Culture and Literature Association. As a member, we had to think about our security because at that time it was quite dangerous to participate in politics. Another thing was that my children were very young back then. That's why I did not join. Later on we set up youth group called Shan Youth Organization. At the same time, SNLD registered again and I decided it was the right time for me to join SNLD.


Q: Why do you think SNLD is the right party for you?


A: I was ready when SNLD set up the office in Taunggyi. At that time, Sao Khun Htun Oo was just released from prison. They did not have enough members because Shan people had already joined the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) or the SNDP. Also, SNLD's policy is based on the Panglong Agreement. Thus, I decided to join SNLD.


Q: Can you describe some of your experiences during the campaign?


A: Even though Taunggyi is the capital city of Shan State, there are not many Shan people there. The largest group is Burmese, the second group is Pa-O; Shan is the third group. When we went to the community to collect data, we found out that the population of Shan people in Taunggyi is very low. For example, in four villages in the west of Mai Daw we did not see any Shan people. In other areas, like east of Mai Daw, the villagers didn't know anything about the election. They didn't know where or how to check whether they are eligible to vote. Some people did not even have ID cards. Shan people who are living in Pa-O and Danu-controlled areas do not dare to speak out about Shan and there are no Shan people serving high positions these areas. I feel very sorry to see things like that. There are so many things that we need to do.  


Q: What are the biggest needs in the communities?


A: What they want is no fighting, no soldier recruitment, and no harassment from other ethnic groups. They also want to have ID cards. Many of them do not have any sort of documentation. Many people who worked in another country, like Thailand, are facing problems returning because they do not have money or do not have the documents to travel back. In many places, there is also no electricity and not enough water to grow crops.


Q:  What will you do for them?


A: I want to do many things for them but it is impossible if the 2008 Constitution is not changed. First, the 2008 Constitution has to be amended. If we win enough seats, it will allow us to be able to work for them. But, I want to tell the public that the infrastructure development is the responsibility of anyone in parliament. For me, I will provide them with human rights and women's rights because many people are fearful to speak out. For example, they do not dare to speak to the leader of the village if their names are not on the voting list.


Q: What will you do if you win the election?


A: Our priority is to amend the 2008 Constitution. If we win enough seats in the parliament we will try to hold a Panglong-style meeting which will include every group in the country in order to bring peace in the country. We will work with those who are in the parliament and outside of the parliament to amend the Constitution.


Q: How many parties are you competing against in your constituency?


A: There are eight parties including USDP, NLD, SNPD, PNO, FUP, Danu, two individuals and SNLD.


Q: There are not many Shan in Taunggyi. What challenges have you faced in preparing for the election?


A: In the area where I'm competing, there are seven Burmese government troops' camps and ethnic armed groups which is very difficult to deal with. I also have to compete in areas which are populated with Burmese people, such as Nyaung Shwe and Aye Thar Yar Townships. This is a very big challenge for me. Every time we give a speech, we have to speak in Burmese or put Burmese language in our campaign leaflets.


Q: Which challenge has been the biggest?


A: My biggest challenge is being a woman. I understand that it's hard for men to accept women as their leaders. Another challenge is that many people go out to work in the daytime and we have to campaign in the evening, but for a woman, it is not appropriate to go out at night.


Q: There are very few women who are in leadership roles. What will you do in order to get support from the public?


A: We have to try harder and we have to show that we can also be in leading roles. However, this does not mean we push the men away. We just need a chance to prove that we can do the job just as well. We have to create a positive image of a woman leader. While we have other responsibilities such as taking care of children, I believe women can also be leaders. We want all men to understand and believe in us.


Q: What words of encouragement would give to women wanting to get involved in politics?


A: Nowadays things are changing, including in parliament where there should be at least 30 percent women participating. I always say that even though our body is not free our brains can help thinking [of ideas]; one of our hands is feeding our children but the other hand can help. So, I urge all women to get involved.


Peace process collapses and turns into partial-ceasefire nightmare

Posted: 01 Oct 2015 03:04 AM PDT

The ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) Summit Meeting was held at The Park Hotel, Chiangmai, from 28 to 30 September, basically aimed at reporting and clarifying to the EAOs by those involved in the meeting between the delegation of 5 EAOs top leaders, 3 ethnic armed organizations- senior delegation (EAOs-SD) executives, 1 nationwide ceasefire coordination team (NCCT) member and the President.

Some one hundred participants from 19 EAOs – 17 NCCT members, Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA) and National Democratic Alliance Army – Eastern Shan State (NDAA-ESS) - were present, where 7 groups decided to sign the nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) and the rest still reluctant to follow the government initiative of inking the treaty by the mid of October.

Partial ceasefire signing

The 28 September VOA Burmese section report that Chairman Hkun Myint Htun of Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO), regarding the summit meeting said: "Today's meeting is mainly the explanation, clarification and discussion of the 5 ethnic top leaders on their meeting with the President - on 9 September-, in Naypyitaw."

At the meeting various EAOs have made known their opinion of whether to sign the NCA as proposed by the regime or not.

Hkun Myint Htun said. " Some organizations clearly said that they would sign the agreement. But some, even though not rejecting to sign said they are not ready and need more time. For example, the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) reportedly need more time to brief and secure agreement from their people. They agree with the President initiative, but need more time to work out between themselves. That is the basic argument."

To add more confusion to the already fragile ethnic unity on the issue of all inclusive participation of EAOs, in signing the NCA, The Irrawaddy report of 28 September quoted General Mutu Say Poe as addressing the summit meeting: "I've already decided. I won't take responsibility of chairing the meeting anymore, in any upcoming meeting. That's why I'm tabling this (concern of mine). So how will the EAOs decide on my petition? Can you accept or reject it? My decision is, I absolutely won't take responsibility of a Chairperson for the third day of the meeting. That's why I'm tabling this paper (petition)."

At the start of the gathering, prior to Mutu Say Poe's personal intervention in the summit meeting, Saw Roger Khin had tabled a Karen National Union (KNU) petition concerning its leader's rejection to take the chairperson responsibility.

SHAN reported on 25 September that for the government, the signing of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) before the November elections is a mission that must be completed regardless of the number of ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) involved, said government chief negotiator U Aung Min, during the 6th forum on the framework for political dialogue (FPD) which was held on 14 September, In Rangoon.

"For us, it is a 'do or die' mission," he said.

Dr Min Zaw Oo, from the government technical team Myanmar Peace Center (MPC), seconded him by saying, "Ta-tet-sa-le-kyetthun, Hna-tet-sa-le-kyetthun (Eat one section, it's garlic; eat two sections, it's still garlic — old Burmese saying). It doesn't matter how many EAOs are signing. It is NCA. There'll be an open book for those who are yet to sign."

Thus, it could be said that the stage is set for a non-nationwide ceasefire agreement (NNCA), rather than nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA), as has been planned and projected from the outset. In other words, only partial ceasefire agreement and not all-inclusive nationwide ceasefire would be signed.

U Aung Min's lobbying of EAOs

Since a few weeks ago, U Aung Min, regime's top peace negotiator, and his team have been on a heightened lobbying tour, in their last-ditch effort to woo as many EAOs as possible to ink the NCA, scheduled to pull it through within the middle of this October.

To date his team have met the United Wa State Army (UWSA), NDAA-ESS, National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K), Palaung State Liberation Front/Ta'ang National Liberation Army (PSLF/TNLA) and New Mon State Party (NMSP) to persuade them to follow the lead of the regime's NCA signing.

All the approached EAOs seem to be sticking to their not signing stance, regardless of the government's threat that they will lose the chance to participate in the upcoming political dialogue, besides being dubbed as illegal organizations.

Mon (NMSP)

However, U Aung Min's loss of patience a few weeks back, during the 14 September meeting on framework for political dialogue, in Rangoon was toned down a bit, when he recently met NMSP leader, Nai Htaw Mon, in Thanphuzayat, telling him that the Mon could sign the NCA anytime before the political dialogue phase, and even participate in the dialogue without signing the NCA.

Aung Min reportedly urged the NMSP to sign the NCA and that it would not be able to participate in a leading role, if it refused to sign, according to the BBC report of 26 September.

The Mon leader's response was said to be non-committal, saying that its organization desired peace and would strive to attain it by working hand-in-hand with the other EAOs.

According to another report in The Irrawaddy, on 29 September, Banyar Leir, who was present at the meeting between Aung Min and the NMSP leadership, said the minister informed them that if they do not sign the accord they will not be able to play an active role in political dialogue set to commence within 90 days of the pact.

"He told us our Mon [representatives] will have a chance to join the political dialogue whether we sign or not, but we can only be observers. We can attend the dialogue, but we can't talk at the talks," he said.

Likewise, the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), UWSA, TNLA and NSCN-K and the rest, counting 10 EAOs, choose to stay away from the government initiated NCA signing.

Palaung (PSLF/TNLA)

The TNLA is offered a bilateral ceasefire agreement, followed by the signing of NCA. But TNLA insisted that  all the two allies, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Arakan Army (AA) must also be included. It also said that it is hard to believe the regime's overtures of bilateral ceasefire, when it is going on offensives against them, at the same time.  

In this respect, the PSLF/TNLA released a 3 point statement of 27 September, to clarify its position.

The first paragraph accused the regime of escalating the armed conflict in Palaung area, to disrupt the free and fair voting of the elections and to manipulate it, but said it will only act in self-defence and won't disrupt the elections, in any way.

The second said that although it doesn't accept the 2008 Constitution and the elections, it will not act against it. But cautioned that racial hatred and belittling of the Palaung people will not be tolerated.

The final one blamed the government that it has no desire for a genuine peace and thus rejected the all-inclusiveness signing of the EAOs. It stressed that it would continue to adhere to the all-inclusive participation and won't sign the agreement if some of the groups are excluded from the process.

Naga (NSCN-K)

In an interview with Independent Mon News Agency (IMNA), U Kyaw Wan Sein said "We already discussed the topic with our chairman. The chairman said we aren't ready to sign the NCA yet. And, there are some political issues in our group. We cannot find a solution for this by just signing the NCA. The government side also cannot solve this problem. So, we decided not to participate in the NCA inking". U Kyaw Wan Sein, however, did not reveal what these political problems were, according to the Nagaland Post of 25 September.

Karenni (KNPP)

Abel Tweed, head of the KNPP, quoting the urgent meeting decision said his organization could only sign the NCA, if there is an all-inclusive participation of the EAOs or if the USDP-Military government could satisfactorily show that it is working for all-inclusiveness, according to the 7Days Daily of 27 September.

The meeting decision emphasized that without all-inclusive signing of NCA the actual fighting could not stop. Besides, even though the signing is about to take place, the Tatmadaw (Burma Army) is not withholding its offensives, which is questionable and hard to believe. Because of this, the KNPP has decided to ink the NCA only when there is all-inclusiveness and satisfactorily shows its intention to include all the EAOs.

The decision was made, during the last week of September gathering, after intensive deliberation and discussion on 9 September meeting between the President and the 5 top ethnic leaders in Naypyitaw, of which KNPP was also a party.

Shan (RCSS)

In the same vein, according to the VOA 28 September report, Colonel Sai La of RCSS/SSA said that recent battles occurring with the Tatmadaw could derail the peace process. He said that he believed it is time that the battles be stopped. No matter who is to be blamed, battles should be terminated by negotiations.

He stressed that his organization has signed 3 state and union level ceasefire agreements, plus one "Deed of Commitment for Peace and National Reconciliation" headed by the President Thein Sein on Union Day, 12 February of this year. And if it is to sign the government initiated NCA again, it will be altogether 5 times already. He reasoned that since the ongoing armed engagement could derail the peace process, the actual stopping of the fighting is really needed.

Prior to this, Colonel Sai La told The Irrawaddy on 26 September: "What is the official difference of signing the NCA and not signing it? As according to U Aung Min, even after the NCA signing, battles could still rage on. So what is the point of signing the NCA? These are questions that need to be answered."

Although it is not clear whether the RCSS is going to join the KNU and other 7 EAOs to sign the government initiated NCA, a Shan insider source, who refused to be named, said its leader Sao Yawd Serk was said to have indicated, to uphold and preserve Shan unity, and that his group will only sign if the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) also agrees to ink the agreement and won't, if it rejects to participate.

In a nutshell, the 7 EAOs geared to sign the NCA are KNU, Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), Karen Peace Council (KPC), Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), All Burma Student Democratic Front (ABSDF), PNLO and Chin National Front (CNF), while those abstaining 10 groups are KNPP, NMSP, KIO, SSPP, Lahu Democratic Union (LDU), Wa national Organization (WNO), Arakan National Council (ANC), PSLF, AA and MNDAA.

NDAA-ESS or Mong La and RCSS that have attended the summit meeting didn't give any consent on whether or not they will sign the NCA.

The summit meeting closing was buttressed with the dissolution of EAOs-SD, as its task of leading the alliance in negotiation process with the government ended and the mandate expired, due to the EAOs' decision to go different ways, in approaching the NCA.

Raging battles with EAOs

Parallel to this, armed engagement between the Tatmadaw and KIA, RCSS and TNLA have been on the rise, with no sign of deescalation, since the last few weeks.

Battles between the KIA and Tatmadaw have been raging, starting from the time when the 5 major EAOs were meeting with the President in Naypyitaw, on 9 September, to thrash out the differences of all-inclusive participation of all the EAOs.

As of 30 September report from Kachinland News, ongoing battles occurred between the KIA and Tatmadaw, at Chyau Hkawng village, located just 2 miles southeast of Mansi; a location between Lung Ja Hkyet and Hkindu Hkyet, located near Chyau Hkawng village; and a place near Mai Hkawng village, located about 10 miles southwest of Mansi, in Kachin State.

In northern Shan State, KIA's 34th Battalion troops fought Burmese Army troops under 88th and 99th Light Infantry Division near Man Yawn Bum, located between Momeik and Manton, on Sept 29 at 10 am. No casualties have been reported on either side for the battle lasted about 7 hours.

Tai Freedom, the RCSS website reported on 23 September that from the last week of August to September 22, 10 battles were fought between RCSS/SSA and Tatmadaw, in Namzang, Lawk Sawk Township and Mong Paun Township.

Likewise, armed clashes between the TNLA and Tatmadaw happened from 19 to 21 September, in Mantong Township, Kyaukme Township and Mong Mit Township,  northern Shan State.

Three possible scenarios

The concrete government position has not changed from it's position of 15 chosen EAOs to sign the NCA, while the MNDAA, TNLA, AA, WNO, LDU and ANC were excluded from the nationwide ceasefire signing process.

Such being the case, one of the three possible scenarios would likely emerge and pave the way for Burma's political future.

One is the suspension of the partial-ceasefire agreement, due to the regime's loss of face for failing to pull through the nationwide ceasefire in a true sense. The other is to muddle through with the open book strategy, starting with those who are ready to sign, hoping that it will gain momentum, and perhaps give satisfaction to the foreign donors and international community. And the final one is to put the issue on the back burner and hope for a better opportunity, after the election.

Whatever the case, the failure to implement the NCA is solely the shortcomings of the Union Solidarity and Development Party-Military (USDP-Military) regime.

First and foremost, the so-called single text NCA draft is supposed to be a jointly owned one between the EAOs and the regime, developing it and seeking to resolve the conflict as negotiation partners together. And when the government, all of a sudden, hijacked the draft, make it its own and even doled out invitation to its chosen 15 EAOs, the whole process deviates from its original intention and becomes a "deceptive détournement" form failure, with new meanings and scope in a new context.

Thus naturally, most EAOs were taken aback and irked by the automatic demotion of their status from equal partner of the process to those of the underlings of the regime, having to follow the government's lead in the peace process deliberations and no more on the same level as negotiation partners.

Second, the regime's lack of common vision with its negotiating partner and sincerity as a dominant party to really strive for a fair and justified conflict resolution.

The ongoing offensives on KIA, TNLA and RCSS, while peace process talks are underway, is stark reminder of such ill intention, seen as insincerity and lack of trustworthiness, by the ethnic nationalities.

A keen Burma observer pointed out the situation rightly that "While the Commander-in-Chief, Sr Gen Min Aung Hlaing considers the NCA to be a "negotiated surrender," and sees no need for Constitutional reform, much less security sector reform, ethnic armed organizations consider this a "mutual cessation of hostilities," which is substantially different from a negotiated surrender, particularly when examining possible courses of action for security sector reform."

And finally, in Burma's historical context, to facilitate reconciliation, it involves the repentance, acceptance and acknowledgment of the Bamar-dominated successive regimes, including the present USDP-Military government, breaching the Panglong Agreement or Treaty made between the then Ministerial Burma and the ethnic nationalities; and the subsequent failure to implement its promises of constructing a federal union, as envisioned by the forefathers of the union, in 1947.

As such, if NCA is to be achieved earnestly, literally in the real sense of the words, the above mentioned factors or core issues would have to be taken into consideration. Otherwise, the present regime and as well the one that follows would be only muddling through in political waters, like all these years, without ever having a chance to resolve the decades-old ethnic conflict and achieve harmonious living with one another.

The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU)-Editor



Shan CSOs: No NCA signing, no ceasefire monitoring

Posted: 30 Sep 2015 11:39 PM PDT

A group of Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) on a visit to Chiangmai yesterday urged the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) concluding its 3-day summit to sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) that was finalized on 7 August.



There are, according to them, several advantages for signatory EAOs, as well as the people whose major concern is safety and security.


"For example, if the NCA is signed, there'll be local monitoring (which is conducted by non-combatant civilians)," said Sai Nyi Nyi Moe, former political prisoner (2005-12) and a leading member of the New Generation Shan State (NGSS). "But if it is not signed, no local monitoring teams can be formed."


He elaborated further that people's participation to uphold the ceasefire and work for peace can be guaranteed only after the NCA is signed and not before, due to the government's condition that only EAOs and people who are associated with them will be exempted from its notorious Unlawful Associations Act.


His colleagues also gave the following rationale for signing:
·         Only with the signing, can we have a chance to stop the wheels of militarization driven by the Burmese military, but not now
·         The longer we delay the signing, the greater will the suffering of the people. The sooner it is signed, the sooner will their suffering be reduced
·         How sure are we of the next government's commitment to the peace process?


One quoted the well known but rarely cited quotation from the 19th century German politician Otto von Bismarck (1819-1898): Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable the art of the next best.


"We all want to move to political dialogue," Nyi Moe argued, "but to do that, first we need to cross the NCA bridge. It'll nevertheless be risky business onward, so it will take a lot of guts."


He also counseled offering what he called an "outlet" for the government if it is also going to make the EAOs' peace efforts easier.


The CSO visitors were also supportive of the inclusivity principle. "The EAOs that are going to sign and those that are yet to sign should work together. No group should be excluded."


The statement issued by the summit yesterday affirms the principle of Common Aim, Diverse Actions between EAOs that will sign and those that are yet to.



According to Naypyitaw, the signatory EAOs will be "participants" at the political dialogue process and the non-signatories "observers."