Tuesday, December 1, 2015

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine


Yangon Stock Exchange to Launch in December

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 03:29 AM PST

Daiwa Institute of Research employee Shigeto Inami poses for a photo at the entrance of the Myanmar Securities Exchange Centre (MSEC) in Yangon August 1, 2012.

Daiwa Institute of Research employee Shigeto Inami poses for a photo at the entrance of the Myanmar Securities Exchange Centre (MSEC) in Yangon August 1, 2012.

RANGOON — The Yangon Stock Exchange is set to launch on Dec. 9, an official said on Monday, after three years of preparations to modernize Burma's financial sector.

Addressing CEOs and executive directors of ten underwriting firms, Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Supervisory Committee and Deputy Finance Minister Maung Maung Thein said the exchange, known as YSX, will list about five companies at the time of its launch.

Financial industry sources said that FMI, MAPCO, First Private Bank, Asia Green Development Bank, Cooperative Bank, Forest Joint Venture Company and Thilawa Holdings Plc. are among those that may be listed.

Maung Maung Thein urged underwriters to put up capital before the end of December.

Joint ventures between domestic and foreign firms will be required to open separate bank accounts for USD and local currency and must maintain a minimum balance of 15 billion kyats (US$11,500).

Brokerage firms are required to commit to a 7 billion kyat (US$7 million) initial investment before applying, while dealing, underwriting and consulting firms must invest 10 billion, 15 billion and 30 million kyats, respectively.

The stock exchange—which is being developed by the state-owned and US-blacklisted Myanmar Economic Bank with two Japanese partners—is expected to be a major advancement in Burma's financial field; offering stability to what has long been an unregulated and volatile investment landscape.

CBM's partners, Tokyo Stock Exchange and Daiwa Securities Group, will own a 49 percent share in the $32 million investment.

Domestic business owners have largely welcomed the establishment of a stock exchange, though some criticized the lack of transparency throughout its development.

"The commission should have been more open before launching the YSX, because people need to know who will be listed," said Zaw Lin Htut, CEO of Myanmar Payment Union. "It will take time as the rules and regulations are still unstable, and the commission needs to show why these companies were listed and why people should invest in them.

"Anyway, we welcome the YSX. Something is better than nothing," he said.

The post Yangon Stock Exchange to Launch in December appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Striking Hlaing Tharyar Factory Workers Take Labor Dispute to the Capital

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 02:59 AM PST

 Nearly 2,000 workers at the Tai Yi shoe factory in Rangoon Division's Hlaing Tharyar Industrial Zone went on strike in February, 2015, to demand a wage increase. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

Nearly 2,000 workers at the Tai Yi shoe factory in Rangoon Division's Hlaing Tharyar Industrial Zone went on strike in February, 2015, to demand a wage increase. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

Around 100 workers from the Tai Yi shoe factory in Rangoon Division's Hlaing Tharyar Industrial Zone traveled to Naypyidaw on Monday with the aim of resolving a labor dispute following a more than week-long protest at their factory.

The Tai Yi workers, who claim their employer is in violation of the 2011 Labor Organization Law which provides for labor unions to represent workers, traveled to Naypyidaw on Monday to file a complaint at the labor ministry and President's Office. However, police prevented them from reaching the latter location.

The workers have been on strike since Nov. 20 and said their dispute had not been solved at the township or district level.

"We were stopped both at the tollgate and on our way to the President's Office," said Moe Wai, the chair of the Tai Yi factory's Labour Organization.

The group was able to meet with labor ministry permanent secretary Myo Aung on Monday morning who suggested they "negotiate with the employer at the township level [Hlaing Tharyar] on the issue," according to Moe Wai.

In dispute, workers say, is their right to be represented by a labor organization of their choice under the 2011 law.

On Monday afternoon, workers were given a letter by the labor ministry, signed by Myo Aung, who is also director-general of the ministry, providing a meeting date on Wednesday afternoon in Hlaing Tharyar Township between workers, company representatives and government officials.

"We had to turn back and are now protesting in front of Tai Yi," said Chan Nyein on Tuesday, a Tai Yi employee who has worked at the factory for three years, and joined the group's convoy to the capital on Monday.

About 1,300 workers are currently employed at Tai Yi shoe factory and nearly 1,000 are members of a labor organization that formed in 2012, after the 2011 labor law was enacted.

Over 1,800 "Basic Labor Organizations" have since formed in accordance with the law, according to Aung Lin, a labor rights activist and former chair of the Myanmar Trade Union Federation, which is soon to be disbanded.

Members of the Tai Yi Labour Organization began a sit-in protest inside the factory on Nov. 20, demanding their right to unionize be included in their employment contract. A week later, the factory's entrance was barred and a warning was issued to workers that only those who sign a newly drafted employment contract would be able to enter the building.

Moe Wai told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday that striking workers had continued their protest outside the factory on Nov. 27.

"Their demands are in accordance with the current labor organization laws, but I don't really know of their problems in detail," said Aung Lin, adding that he hoped the dispute would be adequately resolved on Wednesday.

Workers at the Chinese-owned Tai Yi factory have staged various protests over issues such as unfair dismissal, low daily wages and other labor issues since at least 2010. The Hlaing Tharyar Industrial Zone hosts hundreds of factories with tens of thousands of employees and has been at the center of long-running labor disputes over workers' rights.

 

 

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TNLA Reports Deadly Clashes with Joint Force of Shan, Govt Troops

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 02:48 AM PST

 TNLA soldiers from Battalion 527 at Lwel Khan village in Kyauk Mae Township in northern Shan State. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

TNLA soldiers from Battalion 527 at Lwel Khan village in Kyauk Mae Township in northern Shan State. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

Ethnic Ta'ang rebels claim to have clashed with a joint force of Shan State Army-South (SSA-S) and Burma Army troops several times since Nov. 27 in Namhkam and Manton townships, near the China border.

Members of the SSA-S, the armed wing of the Shan State Restoration Council (RCSS), had crossed into frontline territory and opened fire, according to the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).

TNLA spokesperson Mai Aie Kyaw told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday that the cause of the trespass was still unclear, but that the group viewed the Burma Army as the instigators of the conflict.

"We are not sure about their intentions, but the fighting broke out after the RCSS signed the nationwide ceasefire agreement," he said. "They [the Burma Army] are creating the fighting. They fought alongside the RCSS on the frontline."

The spokesperson said that, once sparked, the fighting continued intermittently, adding that clashes "were going on all day" on Monday. Casualties occurred on both sides of the conflict, according to a statement issued by the TNLA on Facebook. Mai Aie Kyaw added that at least three Ta'ang soldiers had been injured.

The RCSS was one of eight non-state armed groups to sign a so-called nationwide ceasefire agreement with the government on Oct. 15. The TNLA was among three rebel groups that was deemed ineligible to sign the accord by the government. Exclusion of those groups prompted seven others to abstain from the agreement.

Mai Aie Kyaw said conflict had intensified in Mong Wee, Namhkam, after Burma Army Light Infantry Divisions 88 and 77 had assisted Shan rebels by launching artillery fire into TNLA territory.

The spokesperson also said that the RCSS had been warned repeatedly not to enter TNLA grounds, but the troops defied the order and opened fire on Ta'ang soldiers on Nov. 27. The Burma Army joined the SSA-S the following day and has remained since.

The Burma Army was not available for comment, though Maj. Sai Hla of the SSA-S was reached by The Irrawaddy on Tuesday afternoon. The officer said he "didn't know" about the conflict because he was traveling.

"I can't comment as I didn't know about it. I'm afraid to give wrong information because I don't have any information," Sai Hla said.

The post TNLA Reports Deadly Clashes with Joint Force of Shan, Govt Troops appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

On Eve of High-Level Dialogues, a Call to Walk the Talk

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 02:13 AM PST

Burma Army commander-in-chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, left, National League for Democracy chairwoman Aung San Suu Kyi, center, and President Thein Sein. (Photos: The Irrawaddy)

Burma Army commander-in-chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, left, National League for Democracy chairwoman Aung San Suu Kyi, center, and President Thein Sein. (Photos: The Irrawaddy)

Despite National League for Democracy (NLD) chairwoman Aung San Suu Kyi attending several high-level meetings in recent years to discuss Burma's political transition, little progress has been evident on some of the outstanding issues raised by pro-democracy advocates, perhaps most notably the country's military-drafted Constitution. With a landslide NLD victory in the Nov. 8 election dramatically shifting the political dynamics in the time between those sit-downs and today, will Suu Kyi's meetings on Wednesday with outgoing President Thein Sein and army chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing make a difference?

On the eve of the twin bilateral dialogues, we repost a Commentary published last year on why Burma's big political players must match words with action. This story, "Walking the Walk," was originally published on Nov. 28, 2014.

Burma seriously needs talks, but talking for talking's sake is not enough. These must be substantive discussions that will eventually lead to solutions to the country's many problems, bringing about benefits for its diverse peoples.

These days, many Burmese people are convinced that a dialogue is, now more than ever, essential to resolve longstanding grievances over the country's undemocratic Constitution. But the current stage of the constitutional amendment process is far from where we need to be. We are still talking about having talks.

Kyaw Zwa Moe is editor (English Edition) of The Irrawaddy. He can be reached at kyawzwa@irrawaddy.org.

Kyaw Zwa Moe is editor (English Edition) of The Irrawaddy. He can be reached at kyawzwa@irrawaddy.org.

On Tuesday, Parliament unanimously endorsed six-party talks—to involve President Thein Sein, the speakers of both houses of Parliament, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, military commander-in-chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and an ethnic representative—to address amending the 2008 Constitution, which was drafted by the former military regime. It was the first time ever that Burma's Parliament has endorsed such talks.

More interestingly, the proposal was submitted by a parliamentarian from the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). Lawmakers seemed to endorse the meeting in hopes that it might help thaw Burma's currently frozen constitutional discussions, which have hit a snag after military representatives in Parliament came out against any change to the charter.

The opposition and ethnic groups have not objected to the idea. Suu Kyi herself told reporters outside Parliament on Tuesday: "I do not oppose this proposal. This shows that the Parliament agrees that high-level leaders should have these discussions, and I consider this an improvement."

On Thursday, Parliament moved quickly to choose an ethnic representative, voting for Arakanese lawmaker Aye Maung to represent them at the proposed sexpartite meeting.

But the idea appears to have been met with the cold shoulder from Thein Sein. Presidential spokesman Ye Htut told The Irrawaddy on Wednesday that a six-party discussion would be "not pragmatic" and was unlikely to happen.

The military seems to be of the same mind. Min Aung Hlaing recently told Voice of America that four-party talks earlier proposed by Suu Kyi would be "narrow." Suu Kyi's sought-after four-party talks would involve Thein Sein, Union House Speaker Shwe Mann, the military chief Min Aung Hlaing and herself.

In a separate VOA interview, the president matched the senior general's sentiment: "Discussion is the right way, but only four of us is not inclusive enough," he told the broadcaster in comments made before Parliament's endorsement of six-party talks.

The president and the military chief are believed to want to stick to the format of a 14-party roundtable meeting held in late October.

Unfortunately, that meeting didn't result in any progress on the pressing issues that the country faces. Many critics said the meeting was held as a political ploy, just prior to US President Barack Obama's visit to Burma in mid-November. Fourteen representatives from government, political parties and the military sat down in Naypyidaw, with participants including Thein Sein, Min Aung Hlaing, Shwe Mann and Suu Kyi.

The latest developments in Burma's dynamic political arena appear to be splitting the country's leaders into two camps. On one side, there are those in support of a six-party dialogue: parliamentary members from both Suu Kyi's opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) and the ruling USDP, and Burma's ethnic political parties. Many of the country's most prominent voices outside Parliament, such as 88 Generation leaders, are also throwing their support behind a sexpartite outcome.

On the other side: Thein Sein and the military establishment.

Why is the president and military averse to sitting down with the four other representatives proposed by Parliament? They seem to think a larger dialogue bringing more voices—and potentially conflicting views—to the table will increase the likelihood that the political status quo prevails through the 2015 election. That status quo affords military representatives in Parliament a veto over most amendments to the charter, including the provision barring Suu Kyi from the presidency.

A genuine dialogue is crucial not only to discuss amending the Constitution, but also to address Burma's various other problems, including a peace process with the country's ethnic minority groups that is foundering.

Since Thein Sein took office in March 2011, the president and Suu Kyi have held bilateral meetings six times, though if those sit-downs included substantive discussions on issues like constitutional change, there's little to show for it today.

And while talking about constitutional talks is progress when you consider where the country was three years ago, it's high time that those doing the talking move on to the arduous work of negotiation and compromise. Instead of talking the talk, it's time to walk the walk.

The post On Eve of High-Level Dialogues, a Call to Walk the Talk appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Two Rohingya Detained After Brawl Over Goose in Arakan State

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 01:54 AM PST

Rohingya Muslims fish on a river in Buthidaung Township, Arakan State, on June 7, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

Rohingya Muslims fish on a river in Buthidaung Township, Arakan State, on June 7, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

RANGOON — Police in Arakan State's Buthidaung Township have arrested two Rohingya Muslims accused of assaulting two ethnic Daingnet men in a quarrel stemming from disputed ownership of a goose.

Buthidaung Township police chief Aung Bar Lay confirmed that the two accused were taken into police custody on Friday, one day after the incident, adding that the search was still on for five "Bengalis" who were also allegedly involved in the fight.

The two Daingnet victims were knocked unconscious in the brawl and are receiving medical treatment at the local hospital, according to Aung Bar Lay.

The altercation ensued after a Rohingya Muslim claiming to be the owner of a goose confronted the two Daingnet men, who had taken the waterfowl from a stream in the village of Ngagyitauk and refused to return it to the man claiming proprietorship. A group of about 10 Rohingya men then attacked the alleged goose thieves, and an ethnic Arakanese truck driver who was attempting to mediate the dispute also sustained minor injuries but did not required hospitalization, the Buthidaung police chief said.

Htun Aung Thein, chairman of the Buthidaung Township chapter of the Arakan National Party (ANP), said he had heard that seven "Bengalis" were arrested and that the medical condition of one of the Daingnet men was serious.

"About 60 households are inhabited by ethnic Daingnet living in Ngagyitauk village and near there, what we call Ngagyitauk Kalar village, more than 100 Bengali households have settled," the local ANP leader told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday. "Sometimes things like this happen, but it's not a big problem."

Kalar is a derogatory term used to describe individuals of South Asian descent, and Bengali is the official government nomenclature for Arakan State's Rohingya minority, implying that they are illegal immigrants from Bangladesh despite many members of the Muslim group having lived in Burma for generations.

Tensions have been recurrent in Buthidaung and neighboring Maungdaw Township since two bouts of violence in 2012 pitting Rohingya against the state's ethnic Arakanese Buddhists. Communal clashes that year killed more than 100 people and displaced an estimated 140,000, most of whom were Rohingya who remain confined to squalid camps outside the capital Sittwe and elsewhere in the state.

The ethnic Daingnet are classified by the government as a sub-ethnicity of the Arakanese, and are a predominantly Buddhist people.

Regarding last week's brawl, Aung Bar Lay on Tuesday dismissed any link to religion or the 2012 violence.

"It's a normal case," he told The Irrawaddy.

The post Two Rohingya Detained After Brawl Over Goose in Arakan State appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

A Timeline of Suu Kyi’s Many Meetings

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 12:08 AM PST

Aung San Suu Kyi, center, at a meeting with successful election candidates from the National League for Democracy on Nov. 28 in Rangoon. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

Aung San Suu Kyi, center, at a meeting with successful election candidates from the National League for Democracy on Nov. 28 in Rangoon. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Three weeks after the National League for Democracy (NLD)'s emphatic election victory on Nov. 8, separate meetings between Aung San Suu Kyi and Burma Army chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and President Thein Sein, respectively, have finally been confirmed for Wednesday in Naypyidaw. The crucial confabs could help illuminate the political path ahead for Burma during a months-long transition period. Following is an updated chronology, first published in November last year, of major meetings between NLD leader Suu Kyi and various establishment figures since a nationwide pro-democracy uprising in 1988.

1989 — Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi tries in vain to meet with then Snr-Gen Saw Maung in the aftermath of the 1988 pro-democracy uprising.

Sept. 20, 1994 —Suu Kyi meets the chairman of the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), Gen. Than Shwe, and Secretary One, Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt, at a governmental guesthouse. The meeting is the result of mediation led by Dr. Rewata Dhamma, a Burmese Buddhist monk living in the United Kingdom.

Oct. 28, 1994 — A second meeting between SLORC representatives—Khin Nyunt, Armed Forces Judge-Advocate Brig-Gen Than Oo and Armed Forces Inspector-General Brig-Gen Tin Aye—and Suu Kyi takes place at a governmental guesthouse.

2000 — Suu Kyi meets then Sen-Gen Than Shwe. Details of the exact time and venue are unknown.

January 2002 — Suu Kyi meets Than Shwe. Following the meeting, the junta steps up the release of political prisoners and her National League for Democracy (NLD) party is allowed to reopen 35 of its branches in Rangoon.

Oct. 2007 — Suu Kyi meets then Information Minister Aung Kyi, who was appointed by Burma's military junta as a liaison to hold talks with the opposition leader. He meets the NLD chairwoman at least three times over the next four years.

Aug. 19, 2011 — Aung San Suu Kyi meets President Thein Sein for the first time in Naypyidaw. The meeting lasts nearly an hour and is "significant," a government official says. The meeting is believed to have paved the way for the NLD to rejoin electoral politics and collaborate in promoting political reconciliation.

April 12, 2012 — Suu Kyi meets Thein Sein again ahead of her historic entry into Parliament. NLD spokesman Nyan Win says that during the talks in the capital, Naypyidaw, the two discussed democratization and the peace process with ethnic rebels, as well as parliamentary affairs.

Aug. 12, 2012 — Suu Kyi holds her first talks with Thein Sein since becoming a member of Parliament. The Burmese opposition leader and Thein Sein discuss a wide range of issues but details of the two-hour meeting are confidential, according to Zaw Htay, director of the President's Office. The talks take place in the capital, Naypyidaw.

In September, Thein Sein says in an interview with the BBC that he could accept a Suu Kyi presidency.

Sept. 25, 2012 — Suu Kyi and Thein Sein meet in New York. On Sept. 16, Suu Kyi began a 17-day visit to Washington, New York, Kentucky and the West Coast. Thein Sein arrived in New York on Sept. 25 for the UN General Assembly.

Aug. 31, 2013 — Thein Sein and Suu Kyi meet in Naypyidaw and exchange views on the state of the country's political affairs.

March 9, 2014 — Suu Kyi meets Thein Sein, their fourth sit-down since their historic first meeting in 2011. During the meeting, the two leaders may have discussed a four-party meeting that Suu Kyi had proposed to the president in November. The opposition leader has called for talks to be held involving herself, Thein Sein, Lower House Speaker Shwe Mann and the Burmese military's commander in chief, Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, to discuss amendments to Burma's Constitution.

Oct. 31, 2014 — The first-ever high-level roundtable meeting is held in Naypyidaw with 14 participants in attendance: Thein Sein; Min Aung Hlaing; Suu Kyi; Deputy Commander-in-Chief Soe Win; Shwe Mann; Upper House Speaker Khin Aung Myint; Union Election Commission chairman Tin Aye; vice presidents Nyan Tun and Sai Mauk Kham; USDP Vice Chairman Htay Oo; National Unity Party representative Thein Tun; Nationalities Brotherhood Federation leader Sai Aik Pao; Federal Democratic Alliance leader Khin Maung Swe; and United Nationalities Alliance leader Khun Htun Oo. The meeting yields little against high expectations from political parties and the general public.

Jan. 12, 2015 — Thein Sein convenes 48-party talks in Naypyidaw involving Suu Kyi, Shwe Mann, the two vice-presidents, Min Aung Hlaing, 28 ethnic affairs ministers, leaders of ethnic political parties and USDP general secretary Htay Oo. Suu Kyi said the large gathering "shouldn't be an excuse" to avoid her party's proposed narrower dialogue.

April 8, 2015 — Another round of 48-party talks is held in Naypyidaw ahead of a six-party dialogue.

April 10, 2015 — A six-party dialogue on constitutional reform and upcoming national elections is held in Naypyidaw involving President Thein Sein, Aung San Suu Kyi, parliamentary leaders, an ethnic representative and the Burma Army commander in chief Min Aung Hlaing.

Research by Thet Ko Ko and Wei Yan Aung.

 

The post A Timeline of Suu Kyi's Many Meetings appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Southeast Asia Urged to Halt Repeat of ‘Boat People’ Tragedy

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 12:07 AM PST

Migrants, who were found at sea on a boat, crowd in the back of a truck before they are sent to Mee Tike temporary refugee camp located near the Bangladesh border fence, at Kanyin Chaung jetty outside Maungdaw Township, northern Arakan State, June 4, 2015. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

Migrants, who were found at sea on a boat, crowd in the back of a truck before they are sent to Mee Tike temporary refugee camp located near the Bangladesh border fence, at Kanyin Chaung jetty outside Maungdaw Township, northern Arakan State, June 4, 2015. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

BANGKOK — Southeast Asian countries were urged on Tuesday to treat migrants landing on their shores humanely and avoid a repeat of this year's disaster in which hundreds of refugees were either lost at sea or died in jungle camps.

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) called for "full cooperation" this week from governments attending a Bangkok meeting in May aimed at tackling the region's annual migrant crisis as European countries struggle to cope with refugees fleeing war in Syria and Iraq.

Southeast Asian nations agreed to help vulnerable "boat people" stranded at sea after a crisis that saw more than 4,000 migrants land in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Burma and Bangladesh following a Thai crackdown on people-smuggling gangs.

Some were trapped on boats in the Bay of Bengal and Andaman sea. Hundreds drowned.

October and November mark the start of the four-month "sailing season," the busiest time for smuggling and trafficking ships plying the Bay of Bengal.

"We are still calling for safe disembarkation and humanitarian treatment—shelter, hydration, medical care and safety from the elements and criminality—and full cooperation from all actors, from the international community, that lives are not lost," Joe Lowry, the IOM's spokesman in Asia-Pacific, told Reuters.

Thousands of migrants have fled persecution and poverty in Burma and Bangladesh. Many of them are members of Burma's Rohingya Muslim minority who live in apartheid-like conditions in the country's Arakan State, paying smugglers to board rickety boats to sail across to Malaysia.

Some ended up in the hands of traffickers and were held near Thailand's border with Malaysia in often brutal and filthy conditions for months or even years until they could pay a ransom for their release.

A clamp-down by Thai police on human trafficking gangs triggered the regional crisis earlier this year. It followed the discovery in May of 30 bodies in graves near the Thai-Malaysian border, which sparked international outcry.

Thailand has charged 88 people suspected of involvement in human trafficking since launching the investigation into gangs but scores more are on the run.

In a Thai foreign affairs ministry letter to international organisations dated Nov. 23, the ministry said a migration meeting to be held on Friday was "Thailand's proactive step to preempt any possible recurrence of humanitarian crises of May 2015."

Thailand's Interpol director, police Major General Apichart Suribunya, told Reuters ships were bypassing Thailand and heading directly to Malaysia following the Thai crackdown.

"Malaysia is having a headache," he said.

Since late September, when monsoon conditions began to subside, several boats have smuggled a total of about 1,000 passengers across the Bay of Bengal, according to the UN refugee agency and the migration-tracking group Arakan Project.

Lowry of IOM said migration patterns had changed.

"The obvious thing is people go directly to Malaysia which cuts out potential for profit for smugglers," he said.

The post Southeast Asia Urged to Halt Repeat of 'Boat People' Tragedy appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

China Struggles with IVF Demand as One-Child Policy Ends

Posted: 30 Nov 2015 08:54 PM PST

 Guan Junze (C) and his grandparents take their souvenir picture in front of the Tiananmen Gate in Beijing, November 2, 2015.  (Photo: Kim Kyung-Hoon / Reuters)

Guan Junze (C) and his grandparents take their souvenir picture in front of the Tiananmen Gate in Beijing, November 2, 2015.  (Photo: Kim Kyung-Hoon / Reuters)

SHANGHAI — The Nanfang clinic in China's southern Guangdong province says it offers Chinese patients seeking in-vitro fertilization (IVF) the chance to choose the gender of their child, avoid stringent approval checks and snarling queues.

It has to advertise this with caution. China's strict regulation of its IVF market forbids gender selection, requires birth licenses and proof of marriage, and prohibits some more advanced procedures—rules that have pushed patients to go overseas or seek treatment in unregulated clinics at home.

Demand for IVF in China is expected to rise after Beijing scrapped its controversial one-child policy in October, which will strain already-crowded state-run hospitals but create opportunities for overseas health centers, firms helping train local doctors—and underground clinics.

"Here we can do IVF with gender selection and you don't need lots of documentation," a doctor at the Guangdong clinic surnamed Hao told Reuters, adding there had been a 50 percent jump in consultations since the one-child policy announcement.

She said many of her patients were younger women opting for IVF so they could choose a boy, a traditional preference. The doctor did not give her full name and "Nanfang" is a common name for businesses in southern China.

Beijing's tight control makes it hard for private firms to operate IVF clinics in the country, but growing demand for doctors and specialists has created other gaps in the market.

"Training to help up-skill clinicians and embryologists to treat the patients is definitely a big growth area," said Jason Spittle, global director of training at US medical device maker Cook Medical, which has a reproductive health unit.

"China is set to be the biggest IVF market in the world, probably within the next couple of years."

Looking Overseas

Chinese couples who have the financial means often go abroad to the United States, Australia, Thailand and Vietnam for IVF.

"The biggest driver is that there are so many hoops to jump through to get IVF treatment here," said Mr. Lei, a China-based intermediary who helps patients go to Thailand, who like many Chinese was reluctant to give his full name to a reporter.

Rising Chinese demand for fertility treatments is therefore good news for overseas clinics such as Australia-based Monash IVF Group and Virtus Health or Superior ART in Thailand, where 30-40 percent of patients come from China.

"Our clinic has prepared Chinese-speaking staff to coordinate with rising number of Chinese patients," said Superior ART deputy manager Arnon Sinsawasdi, adding the end of the one-child policy should give business a boost.

IVF Australia, part of Virtus Health, plays on Chinese demand for the latest procedures with a Chinese-language website advertising its "cutting-edge technology" to help parents "achieve their dream of having a child".

"Lots of patients go to these places just because they have unique demands. For example domestically they can't do things like surrogacy or gender selection," said Li Yuan, director of reproductive medicine center at Beijing Chaoyang Hospital.

Non-commercial surrogacy is allowed in Australia, while the United States permits gender selection. Thailand, though, has been cracking down on both practices to close loopholes that have lured patients from overseas.

Overloaded Clinics

Patients and doctors in China said state IVF centers were often over-stretched—little surprise given each clinic serves around 3.8 million people, compared with 700,000 people per clinic in the United States, health ministry data show.

"Clinics are so busy it's unbearable. Whichever hospital you go to it's always rammed with people," said a junior doctor at an IVF clinic in Shanghai, who asked not to be named.

This creates a market for unregulated providers, who advertise their offerings online and on social media platforms, while avoiding detection by overworked watchdogs despite a recent crackdown on the market.

"In the past few years our checks in some areas haven't been strict enough, routine oversight has been lax, and strikes against illegal behavior have fallen short," China's health ministry said in a statement in July.

"That's led to chaos in the assisted reproduction market."

Patient numbers are still climbing too. There were nearly half a million treatment "cycles" in 2013 at 356 approved clinics, compared with just under 200,000 cycles that year in the higher-value US market.

Despite the growth, though, many still struggle to get access to IVF at all: Poorer provinces have few clinics and many can't afford a price tag that starts at 30,000 yuan (US$4,697).

"You can't use state insurance, it's all paid out-of-pocket," said Ms Cui, 37, a financial worker in Dalian who underwent successful IVF treatment in 2013.

"I was lucky that it worked in one go, but many people try a number of times which mean it's even more expensive."

The post China Struggles with IVF Demand as One-Child Policy Ends appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

TV Anchor Seeks to Be Cambodia’s Political Peacemaker to Avoid Conflict

Posted: 30 Nov 2015 08:49 PM PST

  Soy Sopheap speaks with a friend at a coffee shop in Phnom Penh, November 30, 2015. (Photo: Samrang Pring / Reuters)

Soy Sopheap speaks with a friend at a coffee shop in Phnom Penh, November 30, 2015. (Photo: Samrang Pring / Reuters)

PHNOM PENH — Cambodian TV news anchor Soy Sopheap has again stepped into the role of political peacemaker in an effort to end the feud between Prime Minister Hun Sen and exiled opposition leader Sam Rainsy which threatens to ignite political conflict.

Hun Sen has warned Cambodia could descend into civil war if Sam Rainsy's party wins an election in 2018, while Rainsy has called for vigilance to prevent self-styled strong man Hun Sen using the deteriorating political climate to postpone elections.

Soy Sopheap entered Cambodia's turbulent political arena in 2013 to act as peacemaker between the two rivals which allowed Sam Rainsy to return from four years in exile in France. The deal included a royal pardon for a prison sentence Rainsy received in absentia.

"In politics, there must be talks for resolution so that no one will lose face," Sopheap told Reuters in an interview announcing he would again seek to be Cambodia's political peacemaker.

The wealthy 44-year Soy Sopheap is an anchor at Boyon TV, which is run by Hun Sen's daughter Hun Mana. He publishes the newspaper Deum Ampil, and is viewed as a messenger for Hun Sen.

He also has the ear of the exiled Sam Rainsy.

The UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Cambodia, Rhona Smith, is concerned about the breakdown in political dialogue and incidents of violence and intimidation.

Two members of Sam Rainsy's Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) were badly beaten outside parliament in October. A few days later, CNRP vice president Kem Sokha was removed from his post as deputy president of parliament in a vote that the CNRP boycotted.

"Any intensification of current events could bring Cambodia to a dangerous tipping point," Smith said in a statement.

Robust economic growth and peace after decades of civil war, including under Pol Pot's 1975-79 "killing fields" regime, have ensured Hun Sen's continued re-election. But Hun Sen has been on the defensive since a disputed 2013 election when he was stunned by the CNRP's success and increasing support among urban youth.

Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party (CPP) won in 2013, but the CNRP accused his party of vote rigging and boycotted parliament for a year. A political truce in 2014 ended the boycott, but that deal collapsed in July and relations between Hun Sen and Rainsy have deteriorated.

Sam Rainsy is again in self-imposed exile after an arrest warrant was issued for him on Nov. 12 over an old defamation case for which he had already received a royal pardon.

Cambodian authorities have since charged him with forgery and incitement over a Facebook posting about a border treaty with Vietnam. The charges carry a 12-year prison sentence.

The Facebook posting was seen as criticizing Hun Sen, who the CNRP often portrays as Hanoi's stooge.

Sopheap gave few details of how he would convince Cambodia's two main political rivals to bury their differences, but said he had contacted Sam Rainsy, advising him not to return yet.

"Sam Rainsy may have to apologize for the sake of the party and the country, there is nothing wrong with that. What is to lose and win in saying sorry?" Sopheap said.

But Hun Sen's party shows little appetite for a deal, demanding Sam Rainsy serve his jail sentence.

"It is too late for an apology," said CPP spokesman Sok Eysan. "Sam Rainsy has started the fire so he's now taking the smoke."

The post TV Anchor Seeks to Be Cambodia's Political Peacemaker to Avoid Conflict appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Stigma Stalks Burma’s HIV Patients Despite Advances in Treatment 

Posted: 30 Nov 2015 08:42 PM PST

An HIV patient stares out of a window at a hospice in Rangoon's South Dagon township. (Photo: Ei Cherry Aung / Myanmar Now)

An HIV patient stares out of a window at a hospice in Rangoon's South Dagon township. (Photo: Ei Cherry Aung / Myanmar Now)

RANGOON — Two weeks after Cho's husband died at his parent's home in 2013, his family called her and told her he died of AIDS. She should get tested, they told her.

Cho, whose name has been changed to protect her identity, vividly remembers rushing to a clinic in sweltering heat to get a blood test. She breathed a sigh of relief when it came out negative.

But then she started losing weight and began falling ill more frequently. In September this year, Cho, who used to run a clothes stall at a neighborhood market, went for another HIV test. It was positive.

"As soon as I found out I had HIV, I felt really sad as well as upset," the 43-year-old told Myanmar Now, wiping away tears from her cheeks with the back of her hand.

Within two days, she had admitted herself to a clinic and hospice for HIV patients founded by a member of parliament from the National League for Democracy (NLD). Her family, who live in the impoverished Hlaing Tharyar township in Rangoon, did not want her to live with them.

Although the virus cannot be transmitted by day-to-day contact, they were worried that she would infect her younger sister's child, so while they support her financially, they would rather she never came home, Cho said.

"My 21-year-old daughter has not come to visit me once since I arrived here, but at least she speaks to me on the phone, so it's not bad," she said.

The hospice is home to nearly 300 patients, many of whom have similar stories of rejection.

Burma has one of the highest rates of HIV infection in Asia.  Under reforms by a semi-civilian government since 2011 it has made some progress in terms of access to medication compared to a few years ago, when cash-strapped clinics had to turn patients away.

Some 210,000 people in the country are living with HIV/AIDS, of whom around 160,000 need life-saving antiretroviral treatment (ART) based on the World Health Organization's guidelines, according to Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF).

No official data is available about the proportion of these patients with access to ART. The medical charity MSF, long the main provider of HIV treatment in the Southeast Asian nation, currently provides ART to 35,000 HIV patients, said a spokesperson for MSF in Rangoon. Treatment is also available at some state hospitals.

"Now you can get ART in government-run hospitals in many states and regions," Soe Yadanar, a doctor with MSF, told Myanmar Now.

Stigma Remains

Yet the stigma and discrimination faced by people living with HIV lingers in Burma, even as the world marks World AIDS Day on Dec. 1.

Ignorance and fear surrounding HIV, which causes AIDS, are among the many challenges that will face Burma's new government, elected on Nov. 8, in overhauling a neglected health system and changing attitudes formed by misinformation and a conservative culture.

A 48-year-old mother from Irrawaddy Division has a similar tale to Cho. She says her community shunned her family as soon as their HIV status came to light three years ago.

"Since I got HIV, nobody asked me to work at their homes anymore," the woman, a slight day laborer who looks much older than her years, told Myanmar Now. She was at the clinic in Yangon to receive her monthly medicine.

She and her five-year-old son, who is also HIV positive, now survive on fruits and vegetables they have planted in their garden.

"Without a job, we don't have money. Sometimes it's really difficult to find food," she said, her little boy sitting at her side.

Like Cho, the woman only found out she and her son had HIV after her husband passed away and a friend who was worried about their health problems brought her to an international health organization for a medical test.

The boy, who was just two when his father died, has little idea of what is going on except that he needs to take regular medication, the mother said. His friends at kindergarten seem to know, however.

"My friends never asked me to join them when they're playing. They stop playing if I'm included," he said, eating a piece of bread.

The mother says she keeps her son with her as much as she can to ensure he takes his medication at the right time.

"I'm worried he would worsen if he makes a mistake about when to take the medicine. It's important that our conditions don't worsen because if anything happens, there's nobody to look after us," she said.

MSF's Soe Yadanar said much of the stigma and discrimination was linked to a lack of knowledge about HIV, and poor families not having anyone to care for people living with HIV.

"We've seen cases where if someone looking after a patient with HIV dies while the patient is unwell, other people don't want to take care of the person with HIV anymore," she said.

Challenges

Soe Yadanar added that while access to ART is much easier these days, there are still challenges in delivering the treatment because of shortages of appropriate staff, especially doctors.

"On some days, patients had to wait for a whole day to see a doctor. When there are not enough doctors, the patients can't explain their conditions in detail and the doctors can't give the patients the care they need," she said.

"People living with HIV tend to feel small so they need doctors and nurses who are able to reassure them. There needs to be enough people to take care of the needs of the patients properly," she added.

For Cho, who is now on ART, taking care of her health and her diet is her focus. Yet she has no illusions that her siblings and daughter would ever accept her again.

"My daughter is worried that if she gets married, her husband would use my condition against her," she said.

"So I think I'm going to spend whatever time that is left of my life in this hospice."

The post Stigma Stalks Burma's HIV Patients Despite Advances in Treatment  appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Nepal Leaders, Ethnic Protesters Resume Talks to End Crisis

Posted: 30 Nov 2015 08:30 PM PST

A woman walks past graffiti in Kathmandu that reads:

A woman walks past graffiti in Kathmandu that reads: "Let's protest against the Indian blockade" on Friday. (Photo: Navesh Chitrakar / Reuters)

KATHMANDU, Nepal — Nepal's top political leaders met Monday with representatives of the Madhesi ethnic group who are protesting against the country's new constitution to try to end a months-long crisis, but no agreement was reached.

The protesters have imposed a general strike in much of southern Nepal and blocked a key border point with India, causing a shortage of fuel and other goods in the Himalayan nation. They are demanding a bigger state than granted in the new constitution and greater representation in the government.

After Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Oli and top leaders in the coalition government and the main opposition Nepali Congress party held discussions Monday with Madhesi leaders, both sides said there was no agreement reached but pledged to continue with talks.

Laxman Lal Karna, a Madhesi leader, said they agreed to meet again Wednesday night to discuss their key demands.

"We told the government to stop using force to stop our protests and peace rallies," Karna said. "The government is yet to even implement the two agreements reached in a previous meeting on providing free treatment for wounded protesters and monetary compensation for families of those killed. Our talks today made no progress in resolving anything."

The government side, however, appeared more optimistic about the talks.

"The meeting today has helped create a conducive environment between the three sides," said Narayan Kaji Shrestha of the United Communist Party of Nepal Maoists. "Though no agreement was reached today, we have all reached an understanding that there would be continuity to the talks."

Madhesis say the new constitution unfairly divides Nepal into seven states with borders that cut through their ancestral homeland. They want the states to be larger and to be given more autonomy over local matters.

At least 50 people have been killed in the protests since August.

The United Nations' children's agency warned Monday that more than 3 million children under the age of 5 in Nepal "are at risk of death or disease during the harsh winter months due to a severe shortage of fuel, food, medicines and vaccines."

Unicef said in a statement that the Nepalese government's regional medical stores had already run out of vaccines against tuberculosis, and that stocks of other vaccines and antibiotics were critically low.

It said the 125,000 newborns expected in Nepal in the next two months are at particular risk, with ambulance services hit by the fuel shortage, resulting in a drop in births in hospitals and health centers. The lack of fuel for heating also increases the risk of hypothermia and death for newborn babies, it said.

The post Nepal Leaders, Ethnic Protesters Resume Talks to End Crisis appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

National News

National News


Yangon government faces transparency call on flyovers

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 01:06 AM PST

Outspoken independent MP Daw Nyo Nyo Thin has called on the regional government to publicly reveal the true cost of controversial flyover bridge projects before the end of its term.

Hpakant anger spills over into parliament

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 01:05 AM PST

Fresh disaster could strike in Hpakant, where rescuers are still digging out the bodies of the victims of last week's collapse of a waste tip, parliament has been warned.

Navy seizes close to 50 unlicensed trawlers

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 01:05 AM PST

The navy has seized 49 trawlers caught illegally fishing in Myanmar waters since 2013, parliament heard yesterday. Deputy Minister for Livestock, Fisheries and Rural Development U Khin Maung Aye told MPs eight of the boats were from Thailand and the rest were local.

Another paper bites the dust

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 01:03 AM PST

Claiming "financial crisis", Messenger Media yesterday published the last issue of its daily Messenger newspaper. The three-year-old paper was a free sheet for its first two years, but the introduction of a K100 cover price over the past year failed to stem the losses.

Speculation rife over transition talks

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 01:02 AM PST

President U Thein Sein and Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing have ended three weeks of uncertainty by agreeing to meet Daw Aung San Suu Kyi separately tomorrow to discuss the transition of power to Myanmar's next government.

Peace accord to be submitted to hluttaw today

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 01:01 AM PST

The government will submit the nationwide ceasefire agreement signed by eight ethnic armed groups to parliament today for approval, sources involved in the peace talks said.

Team given five days to draft political dialogue framework

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 01:00 AM PST

Nine representatives from the government and military, ethnic armed groups and political parties were yesterday tasked with devising a political dialogue framework by December 5.

Low tax yield adds to Yangon’s trash problem

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 12:53 AM PST

Yangon is a long way from being able to provide a decent rubbish disposal system, officials admit. For a start, only 400,000 of the city's 1 million households pay the tax that funds collections, U Aung Myint Maw, deputy head of Yangon City Development Committee's Department of Pollution Control and Cleansing, told The Myanmar Times.

Heritage museum opens in Taungoo

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 12:50 AM PST

The new museum showcasing the ancient history of Taungoo may have opened just in time, many feel. The museum, in Bo Hmuu Phoe Kum Street, Taungoo township, Bago Region, was inaugurated on November 26.

Fired teacher petitions minister over ‘intimidation’

Posted: 01 Dec 2015 12:44 AM PST

A former middle-school teacher on trial for assaulting a civil servant and criminal intimidation has accused the Ministry of Education of railroading him out of the state school system because he submitted a corruption complaint against his superior.

Shan Herald Agency for News

Shan Herald Agency for News


Preventable diseases spread as Shan State IDPs are denied access to primary health care

Posted: 30 Nov 2015 11:16 PM PST

Nearly half of the residents in a Kesi Township camp for internally displaced people have reported complaints of respiratory problems, fever, chronic diarrhea and skin rashes throughout November, according to volunteers working in the area.


Wan Wa, home to over 1,000 of central Shan State's 10,000 IDPs, sits on the Nam Wa, a small stream for which it is named. Locals worry that this primary water source is now contaminated and causing widespread illnesses among children and the elderly in the camp. By November 27, 419 of its residents had complained of health problems.

A young boy cooks over a fire in Wan Wa IDP camp in Shan State's Kesi Township, where over 400 children and elderly people have reported health problems. (Photo: Shan Human Rights Foundation)
 "They drink water upstream in the Nam Wa, and they bathe downstream," said Sai Hin Hseng, a volunteer in the camp, of the IDPs' water use. He suspects insufficient sanitation might be partly to blame, noting that there are "not enough" toilets to accommodate 1,000 people.


"The result [of these conditions] can only be a health disaster," said Dr. Vit Suwanvanichkij, MPH/MD, with the Center for Public Health and Human Rights at Johns Hopkins University. In addition to malaria and dengue—illnesses common in Burma—Dr. Suwanvanichkij told SHAN on Monday that IDPs are at risk for malnutrition, respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases including cholera, as well as labor complications for women who must deliver babies in the conflict zone.


There are currently six medics working in the Wan Wa IDP camp with limited resources; volunteers said that no doctors have been able to visit the area.


According to The Long Road to Recovery, a 2015 comprehensive report on community-based health care in ethnic regions of Burma, 70 percent of people in these areas relied on local medics—rather than government services—to meet their basic needs.


But Sai Hin Hseng feels that "now, a doctor is necessary."  


Of the 419 people who are sick, 293 complained of trouble breathing, as well as a fever. Temperatures in central Shan State can drop to less than ten degrees Celsius; as early as October, The Irrawaddy reportedthat many IDPs lacked warm clothing to protect them during cold weather.


Another 99 respondents reported suffering from chronic diarrhea. Twenty-seven IDPs said they had developed unexplained skin rashes in the current living conditions.


Dr. Suwanvanichkij, who is also an advisor to the Mae Tao Clinic on the Thai-Burma border, explained that most of these symptoms and diseases are preventable or easily treatable.


"The bottom line is that these are all direct consequences of the denial of access to primary health services," he said, recommending that "abuses of and limitations on" aid cease, followed by assessments that would facilitate the timely provision of necessary assistance to the displaced.


"Continuing to neglect the plight of displaced ethnic civilians will not only be complicit in fueling a growing health crisis, it will likely also endanger prospects of true national reconciliation and sustainable peace in the country," Dr. Suwanvanichkij said.


On November 27, when the data in Wan Wa was finalized, the total number of IDPs in the camp had reached 1,023. The population has since grown and Wan Wa is now reportedly hosting 1,103 internally displaced people.


After almost two months of fighting between the Burma Army and the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army-North (SSPP/SSA-N), community-based organizations have estimated that central Shan State's IDP population has surpassed 10,000 people. On November 18, SHAN reportedthat the main source of emergency aid for displaced communities are funds collected and delivered by local groups, rather than international agencies.


The IDPs in the Wan Wa camp have fled seven villages in the area. Offensives by the Burma Army against the SSPP/SSA-N began on October 6. Since then, the region has only experienced five days without active armed conflict.


By SIMMA FRANCIS and ZAAI ZAAI LAO MURNG (Shan Herald Agency for News / S.H.A.N)


Aung San Suu Kyi, the President, Commander-in-Chief and war in ethnic states

Posted: 30 Nov 2015 08:12 PM PST

As the dust settled and the elections' end result made known, the government in waiting and the people at large are again burdened with the worries of a pending transfer of power that should take place in three months time, according to the constitution.

Given such a lengthy period of waiting and zero experience in the regime transfer undertaking, Aung San Suu Kyi. shortly after the National League for Democracy (NLD) landslide win of the elections became irreversible, has officially written three separate letters of request for a speedy meeting to the President Thein Sein, Commander in Chief Min Aung Hlaing and House speaker Thura Shwe Mann, in order to map out a smooth governmental transition.

Thura Shwe Mann complied to her request almost immediately, but the President and the Commander-in-Chief have delayed the meeting, stating that the union election commission (UEC) still need to wrap up the electoral process officially, until both recently said that they would meet her on the 2nd of December.

In relation to this pressing and crucial transitional issue, two separate interviews of the  country's  major stakeholders, Aung San Suu Kyi and Min Aung Hlaing, a courtesy home call on Aung San Suu Kyi by the former strongman Senior-General Than Shwe's grandson, and a visit of the 8 ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) that have signed the government initiated nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) to the NLD office need to be evaluated, in order to determine the country's political climate and which way the political wind is blowing.

Crucial and undeniably linked to the issues of political transition and national reconciliation is the  controversial armed ethnic conflict in Shan and Kachin States. Especially the ongoing military offensives of the Burma Army (Tatmadaw) in central Shan State, which is seen as a deliberate attempt to create a two-tiered society - a relatively free and democratic one in heartland Burma and the other a military occupied ethnic homelands under the totalitarian rule.

Aung San Suu Kyi interview with RFA

On 26 November, in a fortnightly RFA program "Democracy rough journey and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi", she spelled out a general NLD guideline on how her future administration would likely be formed.

She said her government would be a national reconciliation one manned not only by the NLD members, but also with ethnic leaders and able non-NLD personnel, apart from stressing the importance of achieving peace and ending the war in ethnic states; adhering to the spirit of Panglong, which according to her should be the cornerstone of any government in Burma; instilling the rule of law, coupled with moral and ethical awareness to uphold it; and that she and the NLD could not do this tremendous task alone, but needs help from all quarters.

She also complained that governmental change of three months is a long transitional period, but the people are patiently enduring and waiting for the long aspired moment to come.

In the said RFA interview Suu Kyi touched on who would be involved, how the elected NLD representatives should posture and national reconciliation would be moulded.

She said: "In the to be formed government, non-NLD ethnic nationalities will be included. Hopefully, others that could benefit the country will also participate."

On defining the role of the MPs, she stressed: "(They) should think, (it is) not to lead but to serve the people. Don't go and tell the representatives that they are leaders, (I) absolutely don't want to encourage such ideas."

Regarding her stance on national reconciliation, "(We) won't take it all because (we've) won. But (will work) with the spirit of sharing and cooperation with all together. Of course the NLD will lead, the people has clearly given us the mandate as we have asked for."

In an answer on how she thought about the ongoing war in Shan and Kachin States, she said: "This is not good. How can the civil war be good for the country? The election have just been finished, but it looks like that peace is still far away. The main point is that civil war terribly troubled the people. Have you seen the photos from Shan State? You media people know how the people have to endure."

She elaborated that first peace has to returned to the ethnic states, followed by development, which has a wide range covering healthcare, education, social sectors and culture. But the most important thing is the union spirit, which should be spread far and wide to become deeply rooted in the society.

Touching on the NCA and Myanmar Peace Center's (MPC) deliberation on the process, she said: "To continue the work of ceasefire with the political framework, negotiation should start now. Because we  want to carry on with some good things that the MPC has done and change those that need to be changed. That's why  meeting soon with the people that ought to be met (to discuss) the issues surrounding the country is a good thing, not for the sake of power transfer, but to smooth them out step-by-step quickly, so that when the time comes for transfer of power according to the law and all issues that need to be tackle could be immediately done, including the peace process."

EAOs meet NLD

Following the repeated request of the 8 EAOs, headed by Kwe Htoo Win of Karen National Union (KNU), met the NLD on 26 November.

The five EAOs involved were the KNU, the Chin National Front, the Pa-Oh National Liberation Organisation, the All Burma Students' Democratic Front and the Arakan Liberation Party. They were among eight groups that had signed the NCA with the current USDP-Military regime on October 15, which Aung San Suu Kyi had refused to sign as a witness, stating that it was not all-inclusive.

The NLD was represented by senior officials U Win Htein, U Han Thar Myint and U Myo Yan Naung Thein. NLD leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi did not attend the talks.

U Win Htein said the NLD officials told the ethnic groups not to worry and that the party would continue to support the peace process after taking office next March.

"We explained to them that since the foundation of the NLD in 1988, national reconciliation has been the most important objective for the party," he added.

But stressed that the NLD cannot accept the political representation of the non-elected parties in the representative body of 16 members, which is now the case.

U Win Htein said numerous small parties are either the creation or under the sway of the regime to spread the vote in the elections and all were not even elected.

The Union Political Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) has 16 members each from the EAOs, the government and the political parties, making it a total of 48 members in all.

War in Shan State

Two days before the elections, on 6 October 2015, a large scale offensive by the Burma Army (Tatmadaw) comprising of some 20 battalions launched an offensive in central Shan State. The intention was to seize the territories of Shan State Progressive Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA)  in Kehsi, Mong Nawng, Mong Hsu and Tangyan townships, using heavy artillery, jet fighters and helicopter gunship air support.  Besides targeting the SSA positions, also indiscriminate shelling and bombing were directed at inhabited civilian areas, displacing thousands of Shan, Palaung, Lisu and Lahu people causing a new humanitarian crisis. For the time being, the refugees now numbering some 10,000 still could not return, due to the prevailing military tension between the two warring parties.

The SSPP/SSA signed a bilateral ceasefire agreement with the government in February 2012. But in the years that follows, there have been hundreds of minor skirmishes between the SSA and the Tatmadaw, failing to secure a durable truce. 

On 23 November, Union Peace-making Working Committee (UPWC) and SSPP/SSA discussed 8 negotiation points, which included the latter withdrawal from its positions from the southern side of Mong Nwang – Mong Hsu stretch of motor way to the southern part, among others.

Latest news coming out from Shan sources said the SSPP/SSA agreed in principle on the negotiation points, but have asked to work out the details on demarcation lines on the map together. The Tatmadaw is also said to be eager to comply with the detailed implementation.

Shan civilian-based organizations have issued a press release on 26 November on the the plight of the Shan people, due to the Tatmadaw's military offensive in central Shan State. Part of the release writes: 
  • During its latest large-scale offensive to seize Shan ceasefire territories, Naypyitaw troops have been launching repeated air and ground missile attacks on densely populated civilian areas. From November 9 to 12, fighter aircraft and artillery rained bombs on 6,000 civilians in the town of Mong Nawng, as well as on Wan Saw village in Mong Hsu, where over 1,500 displaced villagers were sheltering.


·         These attacks, and abuses including shooting and rape of villagers, have displaced over 10,000 people from Ke See, Mong Hsu and Mong Nawng townships. Most are sheltering in makeshift camps, relying on donations from local communities.  There has been little sign of aid from international agencies in Yangon.
·         The offensive, which began on October 6, was taking place while election monitors and journalists from across the globe were in Burma to observe the recent polls. Yet most news reports have only praised the "peaceful" nature of the elections, and no foreign governments have publicly raised concerns about the attacks and war crimes being committed by Burmese government troops.



Min Aung Hlaing sending mixed signal

The interview conducted by Lally Weymouth a senior associate editor for The Washington Post a mixed signals from the commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing could be detected regarding the general attitude of the Tatmadaw, including the political transitional issue.

Min Aung Hlaing has just iterated his usual position and not much of a difference from his previous interviews.

He said that he is ready to answer all of Aung San Suu Kyi's questions, when they meet  in December. To sum up, he confirmed that he support President Thein Sein's position that the regime would help to smoothly conduct the governmental transfer of power. But regarding the constitutional amendments of Section 436, including a clause 59(f) that would enable Aung San Suu Kyi to become President, he indicated that nothing could be done.

In connection with this, he stressed: "We - the armed forces - favour national politics, not partisan politics. We are not rigid on the constitution . . . . We have already signed a nationwide cease-fire agreement. But we need a mature and stable political situation in our country. We need to gradually change. Right now we are not ready."

In answering the question of what would he need to make him feel comfortable to turn more power over to the civilians, he replied: "It would depend on the stability of our country and people understanding the practice of democracy. Some countries have faced problems as they become democracies."

Thus, it is clear that the election result will be honoured and power transfer will take place, albeit the military won't be supportive where constitutional amendment is concerned.

Than Shwe's grandson visit Aung San Suu Kyi

Aung San Suu Kyi recent meeting with Pho La Pyae, also known as Nay Shwe Thway Aung, who is the still influential, former dictator Senior-General Than Shwe's grandson have invoked curiosity for Burma watchers and stakeholders alike.

As a result, speculation is rife that the military as a whole might be willing to compromise for a smooth transition.

General Than Shwe is the former chairman of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), who has kept a low profile since retiring from the political scene following Burma's general election in 2010. Senior government officials – former military men -  see him as a father figure and have spoken with reverence of the former junta head but maintain he is no longer involved in politics.

On 26 November, Suu Kyi confirmed the meeting but declined to say anything more. But  Nay Shwe Thway Aung which he already posted in his Facebook earlier stating "Tonight will be a historic one," has gone viral, speculating that General Than Shwe might have met the Lady.

He later posted on the Facebook on November 26: "I don't want to make everyone puzzled any more. I am glad that she was warm to me when we met. I will do what I can for the benefit of the country. I hope people will be glad about the news."

The meeting has been seen in a positive light of smooth political transition, both by the Rangoon-based political commentator Yan Myo Thein and an NLD central committee member U Win Htein.

Analysis

Aung San Suu Kyi's interview with RFA could be seen as the NLD spelling out its commitment and with whom the national reconciliation government is to be formed, while Commander-in-Chief's interview with the Washington Post confirmed that political power transfer will happen, although to back the constitutional reform is not in the military's agenda.

It could be said that the two interviews have given us a clearer picture on where the two rival parties  stand, which should be welcomed.

As for the 8 EAOs, the meeting with the NLD is to secure their bargaining position when Aung San Suu Kyi government come into being in March 2016. They are afraid that the structure and committees formed by them will be altered. Most important is to assuage the fact that Suu Kyi sees them as toeing the appeasement line for not adhering to all-inclusiveness like the United Nationalities federal Council (UNFC) members, who are non-signatories of the government initiated partial-ceasefire agreement, dubbed NCA, on 15 October 2015. It looks like, the 8 EAOs have miscalculated for they thought the USDP would at least would win enough vote, be able to form a coalition government with the help of the appointed military faction and continue the peace process. It is now very likely that the game plan will be altered and players will be replaced by the new incoming regime.

Than Shwe's grandson visit of Suu Kyi could also be viewed in a positive light, as they old General is the unofficial head of the military, even though no body openly talks about it. As such, it could be viewed as a good-will approach from the part of the military to cooperate for the benefit of the country, although it could also be seen as an insurance security approach for General's immediate family members and the military class as a whole, if it is not only a tactical move to confused the enemy.

The war in Shan State is a deliberate attempt to create an atmosphere of war, so that emergency rule could be invoked, like in Arakan State and Kokang Self Administrative Zone. The Tatmadaw could expand the move the whole country over in all ethnic states, if it decides to do so for any reason, creating two parallel societies - a relatively free democratic society in Burmese heartland and oppressed ethnic homelands rules by a totalitarian military personnel.

Of course, whether the military will pull through such a stunt in a big way to show that it is calling the shots and disrupt the NLD regime's to rule; or employ emergency rule in small pockets, where there are resistance movements,  is an open question that it has to decide.

But the near future political power transfer will definitely happen for a variety of reasons. They are: the Union Solidarity and Development Party-Military (USDP-Military) clique is not ready to forsake the international community, risks another various sanctions from the West and pulls the country down like during the aftermath of 1990 elections; afraid that the uncontrollable social unrest would occur if it goes against the overwhelming public endorsement of the NLD, besides  not being sure of the military's full support; and not willing to go back into the ambit of China by nullifying the election result; apart from wanting to honour its given promises to uphold the outcome of the elections and conduct a smooth transition of power.

Whatever the case, the commitment that this crucial task of transferring political power would be fulfilled by both the President and the Commander-in-Chief is a blessing, for the first step to real democratization and reconciliation is now within reach and everyone should welcome this noble development.

The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU)-Editor