AllSBNews: 01/12/16

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

The Irrawaddy Magazine

Kyaukphyu Awaiting Answers on SEZ Development
CSOs Ask to Be Heard in Timber Trade Talks With China
Shares Outstanding as Public Bus Company Nears Launch
IFC to Provide Loan to Leading Burmese Grocery Chain City Mart
Locals Keep it Real at Pyin Oo Lwin’s Dee Doke Falls
14 Bills Postponed Until New Parliament Convenes
Notable Absences as Political Dialogue Begins in Capital
North Korea’s Kim Boosts Propaganda in Praise of Nuke Test
HK ‘Umbrella Soldiers’ Visit Boisterous Taiwan to See Democracy at Work
China to Limit Family Size for up to 30 Years, Despite Concerns
NLD Spokesman: ‘Over 10 Party Members Qualified for the Presidency’

Kyaukphyu Awaiting Answers on SEZ Development

Posted: 12 Jan 2016 05:06 AM PST

Preliminary development at the Kyaukphyu special economic zone in 2014. (Photo: Ko Soe / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Residents of Kyaukphyu, in western Burma's Arakan State, may have a long wait ahead for answers about the special economic zone being built on Maday and Ramree islands. During a meeting last week to apprise locals of progress on the development, Kyaukphyu SEZ Committee Chairman Myint Thein said major decisions would be deferred until the new government takes power and the committee at least partially reformed.

Myint Thein, who is also the current deputy Union railways minister, plans to retire when the new administration enters office, leaving the chairmanship open and a reshuffle likely. A newly formed cabinet and new legislation will also likely impact major decisions about land compensation, construction contracts and allowable industries, the committee told attendees.

The Kyaukphyu SEZ has been in the works for years, and after a long and opaque bidding process the government announced in late December that China's CITIC Group of Companies had been awarded two tenders for the development of a deep-sea port and an industrial zone. Committee members said last week that the deep-sea port will not be built until early 2017, and that development of the industrial zone will be tempered by administrative and political reshuffling.

Last week's forum was hosted by representatives of the SEZ Committee and CITIC, and was attended by affected locals and civil society organizations. The committee unveiled its initial formulations for a land compensation scheme, taxation plan and potential employment opportunities, according to locals who attended the meeting.

Kyaukphyu Township administrator Nyi Nyi Lin told The Irrawaddy that the committee did not present a fixed land compensation estimate, but offered examples of settlements reached at two other SEZs being developed in Burma—Dawei and Thilawa.

Tun Kyi, an activist who attended the presentation, said they were shown a slideshow illustrating that land was bought at US$3 per square meter in Dawei, roughly $12,138 per acre, and $5 in Thilawa, about $20,000 per acre. In Kyaukphyu, he said, many residents desired $25 per square meter for their land.

The issue of land compensation is likely to become the thorniest issue as development proceeds; the SEZ is expected to cover some 4,289 acres of land, with an industrial zone spanning five village tracts. Many local communities have already been subject to what they view as unfair acquisition practices or have sustained damages to their property due to the development that has already taken place. Those experiences have left many in the area wary of investors and difficult to sway.

Further complicating the issue is that many farmers in Kyaukphyu Township, as in other parts of Burma, lack sufficient documentation to satisfy buyers and local authorities, despite having occupied the same property for generations, in many cases.

A number of attendees expressed anxiety over the issue of land compensation, and the fact that they still may have months to wait for answers. The Irrawaddy was unable to reach the SEZ Committee for further clarity on the issue, despite several attempts by phone.

The post Kyaukphyu Awaiting Answers on SEZ Development appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

CSOs Ask to Be Heard in Timber Trade Talks With China

Posted: 12 Jan 2016 04:44 AM PST

Boys stand on a jetty as a ship loaded with teak logs arrives at a timber yard by the Pegu River in Rangoon on Feb. 2, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

A network of some 150 civil society organizations (CSOs) have called for their voices to be heard in bilateral timber trade talks between Burma and China supported by Western aid agencies.

The groups expressed concern about a lack of attention being paid to those who would be most affected by the projects, expected to benefit the Myanmar Timber Enterprise, a subsidiary of the Ministry of Environmental Conservation and Forestry that is in control of harvesting rights.

The CSOs sent a letter to the US-based Blue Moon Fund foundation and Britain's Department for International Development on Tuesday, stating: "We are very concerned about the nature of these non-transparent bilateral dialogues, which have been facilitated by the Chinese-NGO Global Environmental Institute. We, as affected and concerned civil society in [Burma], have not been consulted, even though the discussions have great import for the people living in and around and dependent on forest-based resources in [Burma]."

Although talks have supposedly been taking place in the capital, Naypyidaw, for the past year, no CSO representatives have been invited to participate, members of the coalition say.

Burma's forests, which cover about 45 percent of the country, have been heavily damaged by relentless commercial logging, as well as by illegal logging and trading. To curb deforestation, raw log exports were banned in Burma in 2014.

"We are concerned that multi-year contracts over natural resources, especially timber and jade in ethnic areas, are sold to foreign firms without transparency," said Khon Ja, coordinator of the Kachin Peace Network, one of the groups that signed the letter.

"We want to postpone these talks while Burma is in a transition period, and we urge that they only be continued after solutions to these issues have been reached through political dialogue," she told The Irrawaddy.

Conflicts over Burma's natural resources, especially timber, natural gas and jade, are hardly uncommon when majority-ethnic areas, largely on the country's peripheries, are involved.

In their letter, the CSOs cited a draft memorandum of understanding between the two governments, which they said is being hashed out and contains provisions related to a Chinese investment zone in timber processing and investment in "timber parks" in Burma.Information is scarce on how any such deal would work in practice.

"We've heard that this will be a long-term project, with the processing to be done in Burma," Khon Ja said.

"If so, we're afraid that Burma will become a timber plantation site for China. And we don't want to lose the land that some 70 percent of the rural population lives on."

The post CSOs Ask to Be Heard in Timber Trade Talks With China appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Shares Outstanding as Public Bus Company Nears Launch

Posted: 12 Jan 2016 03:53 AM PST

A typical privately owned bus plies the streets of Rangoon. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Burma's first public bus company, which is expected to launch routes in Rangoon late this month, has so far raised 3.8 billion kyats (US$2.9 million) in a sale of shares to fund the first phase of the transportation service, according to an official.

The project will introduce a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system to Rangoon, aimed at reducing traffic congestion in the commercial capital. The rollout is being divided into phases, and the first phase of the project is projected to require a total of 25 billion kyats in capital. Through a public-private partnership, the government will provide 10 billion kyats, a 40 percent stake, with the remaining 15 billion kyats available to shareholders.

Maung Aung, an adviser to the Ministry of Commerce who leads a committee responsible for forming the public company, said a total of 580 people had bought shares valued at 1.3 billion kyats as of Friday. Five private companies, described by Maung Aung as "founders" of the new bus company—Diamond Star, Shwe Taung, Shwe Than Lwin, Zeya & Associates, and Fisheries and Marine Products 2000 Ltd.—have put down a total of 2.5 billion kyats so far, and will ultimately each hold 2 billion kyats in shares.

Shares for the remaining 5 billion kyats stake went on sale beginning Nov. 3 and will be sold until the end of this month.

"We are selling each share for 100,000 kyats until the end of this month. But if we don't get the required amount, we will extend the period of sale or the founders will close the shortfall by buying the remaining shares," Maung Aung said, adding that preparations for the bus service's launch were already underway, including importing new buses from China, Korea and Sweden, preparing a ticketing system, recruiting drivers and setting up new bus stops.

Currently, hundreds of small, private companies operate thousands of daily buses throughout the city of more than 5 million residents. Many of the companies use old Japanese Hino Motors buses that are often crammed with passengers and lack air-conditioning.

Some 2.2 million people make use of 365 bus lines across the city that are operated by companies that own some 6,000 buses, 4,000 of which are deployed every day, according to the Rangoon Division Supervisory Committee for Motor Vehicles.

The post Shares Outstanding as Public Bus Company Nears Launch appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

IFC to Provide Loan to Leading Burmese Grocery Chain City Mart

Posted: 12 Jan 2016 03:23 AM PST

City Mart Holding Co., Ltd. currently has 24 super markets and seven hyper markets nationwide. (Photo: Hein Htet / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — The International Finance Corporation (IFC), backed by the World Bank, agreed on Monday to provide a US$25 million loan to local leading retail outlet City Mart Holding Co., Ltd. to boost expansion of retail markets across Burma.

Win Win Tint, director of City Mart, told The Irrawaddy that the loans would be disbursed at the end of January and that the interest rate would be set at 1.3 percent in line with international standards.

"We've been trying to get this loan for the last two years, and there were many criteria we had to fulfill in order to qualify for one of IFC's loans," she said.

According to a City Mart press release, IFC's financial support will help the chain construct some 20 supermarkets and hypermarkets across the country over the next three years. The funding will enable the company, already with about 150 retail outlets to its name, bring more farmers and micro, small and medium enterprises into its supply chain and distribution networks. There are also plans to open more than 50 new City Express convenience stores within the next year.

City Mart anticipates a six-fold increase in its purchases from domestic suppliers, reaching about $150 million by 2021, and hopes to create 4,000 new jobs, half of which will be for women.

"IFC's expertise and advice on food safety, good social and environmental practices and corporate governance will also help us take the company to the next level," Win Win Tint said.

Burma's $12 billion retail sector is overwhelmingly informal, with formal retailers accounting for less than 10 percent of the market. "However, economic growth and the opening up of the market after decades of isolation have fueled demand for consumer goods," read the statement.

"IFC supports the development of a modern retail sector in developing countries as it helps spur growth and job creation, develop supply chain and logistics infrastructure, and support smaller businesses," said Vivek Pathak, IFC's regional director for East Asia and the Pacific.

"With our global expertise and industry knowledge, we will be delighted to work with CMHL [City Mart] to improve efficiency and standards to become a model retailer in [Burma]."

The post IFC to Provide Loan to Leading Burmese Grocery Chain City Mart appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Locals Keep it Real at Pyin Oo Lwin’s Dee Doke Falls

Posted: 12 Jan 2016 03:15 AM PST

Click to view slideshow.

MANDALAY — About 38 miles east of Mandalay, in Pyin Oo Lwin's Magyi Inn village, Dee Doke waterfall crashes down into one of Burma's most stunning natural pools, and one of its many travel delights. The entrance to the waterfall, tucked away down a sleepy road off the highway, is peppered with small restaurants, each vying for incoming guests' attention.

Just past the strip, a small junction offers two routes to the pools. Elderly persons typically opt to stay on the ground level while younger travelers head uphill. Small huts, selling everything from slippers to snacks, line the rocky ascent to the top, where climbers can soak in a bird's eye view of the ponds below, surrounded by beer-drinking youths.

The preferred spot for many visitors is a terraced pool; a shallow, five-step body of water that ends in a punchbowl-shaped fall, the limestone underneath giving it luster. Around the pool, red warning letters advise against littering and breaking beer bottles, while urging visitors to "be kind to nature."

Though the site at times receives large crowds of tourists, the water remains immaculate. Merchants who work nearby say they all do their part to keep the place clean and welcoming.

"We collect trash every evening to make sure the area is clean," Maung Oo, a souvenir shop keeper, told The Irrawaddy on a recent visit. He said the vendors burn the trash and collect epty cans and bottles to sell to recyclers.

The Dee Doke pools were discovered in 2000 by a group of geology students, but only since 2008 have they really caught the eye of tourists, who, in addition to the pristine waters, come to admire the stalactites that line the ceilings of nearby caves. Others prefer even more adventurous activities, such as climbing up steep surrounding hills where more caves have yet to be explored. Locals recalled one Western climber who attempted to scale the walls of one such cavern.

Such freestyle climbing is inadvisable, however—the man went up without a hitch, but had trouble when he tried to come back down. One local, Than Than Yin, recalled the ill-fated attempt, as the man fell to the ground and was found unconscious.

"We had to call an ambulance," he said, "we don't know if he survived or not."

On a lighter note, the pools have opened up a broad debate about conservation in the area. While Dee Doke is beautiful on its own, visitors say its natural appeal is under threat by renovation. The ten-step pool, for instance, is the largest, and hence a draw for many swimmers. But it is also man-made; created by arranging sandbags to obstruct the natural water flows.

"The 'upgrade' with the sandbags threatens nature," said Hla Hla Win, a visitor from Mandalay who has frequented the area since 2009. Other patrons were also critical of a surplus of shops, which they said spoiled views of the waterfront.

Locals said a private company was angling to build a recreation center at the site, but the plan has faced mounting public criticism. Aye Aye Myint, a member of a local development committee, told The Irrawaddy that locals pushed back hard against the project. She said the company had presented a plan to "loan" retail space to local vendors, which was flatly rejected.

"We've been working for years to develop this region with our own money," Aye Aye Myint said. "And as soon as the area starts to grow, a company wants to come in and boss us around."

The company made two attempts in early 2015 to persuade residents to sign onto development agreements but left empty-handed both times. Locals then sought permission from the government to build up a recreation center on their own.

"We got the green light from the Mandalay Division government last year," Aye Aye Myint said, elaborating on a plan that would not only reinvigorate the waterfall area but also include a sapling program to combat deforestation on the surrounding hills. "We're also going to renovate the roads, trekking paths, shops and, of course, the pools."

Locals are eager to develop the area, though some visitors said they'd prefer that things stay just as they are, reveling in the natural beauty that has, for the most part, remained intact despite some manipulation of the swimming areas and the addition of a few shops.

Pyae Sone, a university student from Mandalay, said he worried that even a little development would bring unwanted and unsightly consequences.

"Some parts of the walkways are rocky, slippery and dangerous," Pyae Sone said, "but the discos near some of the shops around the ponds are disrupting the serenity of nature.

"Three years ago, the area was very natural. We welcomed plans to upgrade the place, but now we see sandbags blocking waterways and destroying nature. If locals hadn't sought development advice from experts, the natural beauty of the area wouldn't be at risk and the ponds in jeopardy of becoming man-made."

The post Locals Keep it Real at Pyin Oo Lwin's Dee Doke Falls appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

14 Bills Postponed Until New Parliament Convenes

Posted: 11 Jan 2016 10:32 PM PST

A view of Burma's Parliament in Naypyidaw. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Burma's Lower House of Parliament on Monday deferred debate on 14 bills until the new assembly convenes in February.

The decision followed a request from the Lower House Draft Bill Committee that some bills be put on hold so as not to rush through complicated legislation on issues such as constitutional protection.

Committee member Steven, a member of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), told lawmakers that the bills in question warranted more time to "broadly discuss" changes before passage.

The postponed legislation includes the Nuclear Disaster Protection Bill and the Prison Bill, as well as amendments to the Constitutional Protection Bill, the Land Confiscation Bill, the 1950 Emergency Management Bill, the Private Education Bill, the Weapons Act and the Suppression of Prostitution Act.

The current Parliament, dominated by the USDP, has had an industrious last session as it prepares to hand over a majority of seats to the National League for Democracy (NLD).

The NLD, chaired by Aung San Suu Kyi, won a landslide vote in the Nov. 8 general election, handing the party a majority in both houses. The new assembly is scheduled to convene on Feb. 1.

The post 14 Bills Postponed Until New Parliament Convenes appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Notable Absences as Political Dialogue Begins in Capital

Posted: 11 Jan 2016 10:11 PM PST

Chairman of the Karen National Union Mutut Say Poe (left) and Chairwoman of the National League for Democracy Aung San Suu Kyi (right) at the Union Peace Conference in Naypyidaw, Jan. 12, 2016. (Photo: Myo Min Soe / The Irrawaddy)

A five-day Union Peace Conference kicked off in Naypyidaw on Tuesday, marking the beginning of a long-sought political dialogue between the Burmese government and a fraction of the country's ethnic armed groups.

The government reached what it has termed a nationwide ceasefire agreement with eight of more than 20 non-state armed groups on Oct. 15, stipulating that political talks commence within 90 days.

The majority of the country's armed groups abstained from the deal, and while they were invited to attend the talks as observers, all of the non-signatories declined.

Tuesday's event was nonetheless portrayed by the administration of President Thein Sein as a milestone in the peace process. The president remarked during the opening ceremony that the day "marks one of the most significant days for us. Today we will write history together."

Thein Sein notably added that one purpose of this week's conference was to ease the handover of the peace process, one of Burma's most critical challenges, to the incoming government led by Aung San Suu Kyi.

Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory in a Nov. 8 general election, granting it the power to form the new government that will assume power in February. The chairwoman has stated that the new administration will make the peace process its top priority.

Among the speakers at Tuesday's opening ceremony were Suu Kyi, Lower House Speaker Shwe Mann, Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing and Chairman of the Karen National Union Mutu Say Poe.

In her remarks, Suu Kyi stressed the importance of national unity despite shortcomings of the current peace agreement, emphasizing that it is important "not to have division between those signed and those who not" and suggesting that the framework for political dialogue be "flexible."

Shwe Mann, a former general and deposed chairman of the outgoing Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), also stressed the need for collaboration and reconciliation.

"Peace is for all of us, for the entire Union," he said, "we must build peace rather than blame each other."

Army Chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing said the military maintained a "6-point" policy on the peace process with three political objectives. The commander stood firm on the military's demand to establish a single federal army, while urging some ceasefire non-signatories to join the peace process.

"The Tatmadaw [Burma Armed Forces] will keep the door open for those who have not signed out of good will," Min Aung Hlaing said. "This conference represents the whole country, having representatives of the government, ethnic armed groups, the Parliament and the Tatmadaw."

"The Tatmadaw shall be the only armed group in the country, and the Tatmadaw welcomes those who wish to join from ethnic armed groups," he added.

The post Notable Absences as Political Dialogue Begins in Capital appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

North Korea’s Kim Boosts Propaganda in Praise of Nuke Test

Posted: 11 Jan 2016 10:10 PM PST

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un salutes during a visit to the Ministry of the People's Armed Forces on the occasion of the new year, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Jan. 10, 2016. (Photo: Reuters / KCNA)

SEOUL — North Korean leader Kim Jong-un looked Monday to milk his country's recent nuclear test as a propaganda victory, praising his scientists and vowing more nuclear bombs a day after the United States flew a powerful nuclear-capable warplane close to the North in a show of force.

A standoff between the rival Koreas has deepened since last week's test, the North's fourth. Seoul on Monday continued anti-Pyongyang propaganda broadcasts across the border and announced that it would further limit the entry of South Koreans to a jointly run factory park in North Korea.

Outside North Korea, Kim faces widespread condemnation and threats of heavy sanctions over the North's disputed claim of a hydrogen bomb test. Internally, however, Kim's massive propaganda apparatus has looked to link the test to Kim's leadership so as to glorify him and portray the test as necessary to combat a US-led attempt to topple the North's authoritarian system.

On Monday, Kim took photos with nuclear scientists and technicians involved in the test and praised them for "having glorified" his two predecessors, his late father, Kim Jong-il, and his grandfather, state founder Kim Il-sung, according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency.

Kim earlier called the explosion "a self-defensive step" meant to protect the region "from the danger of nuclear war caused by the US-led imperialists," a separate KCNA dispatch said.

The comments provide insight into North Korea's long-running argument that it is the presence of tens of thousands of US troops in South Korea and Japan and a "hostile" US policy that justify its pursuit of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles.

On Sunday, a US B-52 bomber flew low over areas near Seoul, the South Korean capital city only about an hour's drive from the border with the North, a fly-over that North Korea will see as a threat. The B-52 was joined by South Korean F-15 and US F-16 fighters and returned to its base in Guam after the flight, the US military said.

White House chief of staff Denis McDonough said the B-52 flight was intended to underscore to South Korean allies "the deep and enduring alliance that we have with them." Interviewed on CNN, McDonough said the United States would work with South Korea, Japan, China and Russia "to deeply isolate the North Koreans" and "squeeze" them until they live up to prior commitments to get rid of their nuclear weapons.

World powers are looking for ways to punish the North over its disputed bomb test, which, even if not of a hydrogen bomb, still likely pushes Pyongyang closer to its goal of a nuclear-armed missile that can reach the US mainland. Many outside governments and experts question whether the blast was in fact a powerful hydrogen test.

In the wake of the test on Wednesday, the two Koreas have settled into the kind of Cold War-era standoff that has defined their relationship over the past seven decades. Since Friday, South Korea has been blasting anti-Pyongyang propaganda from huge speakers along the border, and the North is using speakers of its own to send messages, although Seoul says they are too weak to be heard clearly on the South Korean side.

A top North Korean ruling party official's warning that the South's broadcasts have pushed the Korean Peninsula "toward the brink of war" is typical of Pyongyang's over-the-top rhetoric. But it is also indicative of the real fury that the broadcasts, which criticize the country's revered dictatorship, cause in the North.

North Korea considers the South Korean broadcasts tantamount to an act of war. When Seoul Korea briefly resumed propaganda broadcasts in August after an 11-year break, Seoul says the two Koreas exchanged artillery fire.

While the South's broadcasts also include news and pop music, much of the programming challenges North Korea's government more directly.

The South Korean measures Monday on the jointly run factory park in the North will take effect Tuesday. They seek to limit the daily number of South Korean nationals at the complex to about 650, from the current 800, according to Seoul's Unification Ministry.

The park, the last major remaining symbol of inter-Korean cooperation, is considered a rare legitimate source of hard currency for the impoverished North.

Last week, South Korea began barring those with no direct relations to the park's operations, such as clients and potential buyers.

Responding to the North's bomb test, US Secretary of State John Kerry has urged China, the North's only major ally and biggest aid provider, to end "business as usual" with North Korea.

Diplomats at a UN Security Council emergency session pledged to swiftly pursue new sanctions. For current sanctions and any new penalties to work, better cooperation and stronger implementation from China is seen as key.

It may take weeks or longer to confirm or refute the North's claim that it successfully tested a hydrogen bomb, which would mark a major and unanticipated advance for its still-limited nuclear arsenal.

The post North Korea's Kim Boosts Propaganda in Praise of Nuke Test appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

HK ‘Umbrella Soldiers’ Visit Boisterous Taiwan to See Democracy at Work

Posted: 11 Jan 2016 09:51 PM PST

"Umbrella Soldier" Clarisse Yeung walks past her election posters after winning a district council election at Tai Hang in Hong Kong, China, on Nov. 23, 2015. (Photo: Tyrone Siu / Reuters)

TAIPEI — Hundreds of residents of Hong Kong, the Chinese-ruled territory rocked by street protests demanding free elections in 2014, have flown to Taiwan for Saturday's elections to see free-wheeling democracy in action.

Politicians, students and "Umbrella Soldiers"—activists who used umbrellas to fend off tear gas canisters during 79 days of street demonstrations in the former British colony—signed up for tours to meet candidates, visit polling stations and join boisterous election rallies across Taiwan.

"You can watch and learn from Taiwan's political culture … and witness the elections with your own eyes," Hong Kong-based Hong Thai Travel Services wrote in a commercial to lure takers for a sold-out four-day tour.

China allowed a direct vote for Hong Kong's chief executive in 2017, but only from among pre-screened, pro-Beijing candidates, which the protesters denounced as a sham. The Beijing-backed electoral reform was vetoed by Hong Kong's legislature last year.

Hong Kong returned to Chinese rule in 1997, with a guarantee of wide-ranging autonomy under a so-called "one country, two systems" formula, with universal suffrage the "eventual goal." China considers self-ruled Taiwan a breakaway province and has not ruled out force to bring it under the mainland fold.

China has held out "one country, two systems" as a solution for Taiwan. But both the island's ruling Nationalists (KMT) and the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have rejected the model.

The Hong Kong protests, which blocked key arteries, posed the biggest political challenge and embarrassment in years for Beijing's Communist Party leaders, who are likely to be angered by Hong Kong tourists learning about democracy from their long-time foe.

Wang Dan, a student leader during the 1989 democracy movement in and around Beijing's Tiananmen Square that was crushed by the military, will be hosting groups of Hong Kong visitors at his "New School for Democracy," which advocates the democratization of China.

He said the issue was not the law that Beijing lays down to decide the next chief executive of Hong Kong, but rather the work for political change from the bottom up, even if it takes many more years.

"The only hope for Hong Kong's future is election, not a fight on the street," he said. "The [Taiwan] election is very important after the Umbrella Revolution. Hong Kong feels very desperate, that its future is not bright. But gradually they will see there is another way."

Missing Booksellers

Already there are fears that many of the freedoms promised to the territory are being eroded. Thousands of people took to the streets of Hong Kong on Sunday in a reprise of the anti-China protests, demanding to know the whereabouts of five missing people linked to a local publisher of books critical of Beijing's leadership.

Other publishers and book vendors are unnerved by the mysterious disappearances, and in some cases they have pulled books critical of Beijing's leaders from their shelves.

Taiwan votes in a new president and parliament on Saturday, when the China-friendly KMT is expected to be defeated by the DPP, a party Beijing loathes.

China has regarded Taiwan as a renegade province since Chiang Kai-shek's defeated Nationalists fled to the island in 1949 after losing the Chinese civil war to Mao Zedong's Communists.

The elections in Taiwan involve a diverse bunch of candidates, with a former gangster, a Chinese dissident and heavy-metal singer running for parliament.

"Taiwan is the only Chinese community in the world that practices democracy," said Benny To, a lecturer from Hong Kong's Community College of City University who is leading a group of 36 students to Taiwan. "There is something we can observe and learn from critically."

High on the itinerary for the Hong Kong tourists are the campaign headquarters of DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen, likely to become the island's first woman president.

"The Taiwan election is a motivation for us to keep moving toward the goal of democracy," said Nathan Law, a student leader in the Hong Kong protests that sparked what many residents saw as a political awakening.

"[In Hong Kong] many politicians, including the chief executive, are not elected by us. It's really depressing."

A Chinese student from the University of Hong Kong, on a six-day trip to Taiwan, said she was hoping to meet presidential candidates during their last campaign stops.

"It's like a dream come true," she said.

The post HK 'Umbrella Soldiers' Visit Boisterous Taiwan to See Democracy at Work appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

China to Limit Family Size for up to 30 Years, Despite Concerns

Posted: 11 Jan 2016 09:24 PM PST

Guan Junze and his grandparents take their souvenir picture in front of the Tiananmen Gate in Beijing Nov. 2, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

BEIJING — China will stick to family planning restrictions for up to 30 years, a senior Chinese official said on Monday, rejecting concern that limits on the number of children had shrunk the pool of workers needed to support an aging population.

Last year, the ruling Chinese Communist Party announced it would relax its long-standing and controversial "one-child policy," allowing all couples to have two children.

But critics say the policy change comes too late to avert a dangerous population imbalance as many couples are now not keen on having more children.

China's population is set to peak at about 1.45 billion by 2050 when one in every three people is expected to be more than 60 years old, with a shrinking proportion of working adults to support them.

But officials would adhere to family planning restrictions "for the long term," Wang Pei'an, vice minister of the National Health and Family Planning Commission, told a news conference.

"This long-term adherence is at least 20 years, 30 years," Wang said.

"After a period of time, along with demographic changes, and along with changes in the population's socio-economic development situation, we will adopt a different population policy."

He said it was difficult to give a specific time on how long the restrictions on family size would be maintained, saying it was an issue that had to be dealt with "in line with the times".

Asked about the danger the two-child policy would prevent China from getting rich before it got old, Wang said an aging population was a global problem and "an inevitable trend of a society's development."

China's main problem with its labor force was not the number of workers but "how to improve the quality of workers," he said.

Wang said there was a demographic "imbalance" in China between poorer regions with higher fertility levels than cities, where many people are reluctant to have more children.

The one-child policy was introduced in the late 1970s to prevent population growth spiraling out of control, but is now regarded as outdated and responsible for shrinking the labor pool.

It has also led to the problem of an aging society, with a smaller number of productive young people, a phenomenon usually seen in industrialized countries.

With the adoption of the two-child policy, China's labor force could rise by more than 30 million by 2050 and its aging population will be reduced by 2 percentage points by 2030, Wang said.

The post China to Limit Family Size for up to 30 Years, Despite Concerns appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

NLD Spokesman: ‘Over 10 Party Members Qualified for the Presidency’

Posted: 11 Jan 2016 06:25 PM PST

National League for Democracy spokesperson Nyan Win seen at the party's headquarters in Rangoon. (Photo: Htet Khaung Linn / Myanmar Now)

The National League for Democracy (NLD) is currently in the process of forming a government following its landslide victory in Nov. 8 elections. The outgoing Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) government is part of a bipartisan committee with NLD representatives that has been discussing the upcoming transfer of political power.

Few details have been released so far, however, on the members of the future NLD government or its policies. The NLD is treading carefully in order to ensure a smooth transfer and appease the military, which retains considerable political powers under the 2008 Constitution.

Last week, Myanmar Now reporter Htet Khaung Linn visited the NLD's Rangoon headquarters to interview party spokesman and central committee member Nyan Win about the power transfer and the policies and reform plans of the future government.

How are the discussions on the transfer of power with the USDP government progressing?

I was not involved in the discussions. However, I learned that the process is going well. I do not mean both sides have reached agreements on all the issues, [but] I just mean there is no serious deadlock in the discussions.

Does the NLD have plans to select USDP members and incumbent government officials as members in the upcoming government?

We cannot say anything about this at the moment. But what we can say now is that our government will focus on democracy and human rights, protection of our citizens and the rule of law.

Some people assume a civilian president will have less influence over the military. Is that a concern for the NLD?

It depends on the situation; who will become president, and what is the stance of the military? In countries across the world, civilian governments manage the country and the military is one of the institutions of a country. Such practices must be developed in this country.

A Japanese news agency reported that you said the NLD has selected potential candidates for the presidential post. Who are they?

This is not true, the reporting was wrong. I just told them that we have more than 10 people who are qualified for the presidential post, but their report stated that the NLD has 10 presidential candidates. My answer only meant that the NLD has many members who are well-experienced in politics, well-educated and very faithful to the party.

The present government has had some weaknesses in releasing public information to the media. What is your plan for ensuring a speedy flow of information under a new NLD government?

The Ministry of Information is responsible for releasing news. But we see important news stories need quotes from relevant sources to avoid legal complications.

Do you mean the Ministry of Information will continue to exist?

Exactly, but [we are not sure about whether] it is also possible to form information departments at respective government agencies and ministries.

What does the NLD think of the development and infrastructure projects of President Thein Sein's government? Have these been beneficial to the country and will you continue them?

We have sought the government's information on these projects, but they have not given any responses to us yet. Our upcoming government needs to know the details of these projects—how were the projects initiated and to what extent have the projects been finalized? Only then could we continue these projects. We have not received the lists and results from these discussions. We could continue the projects based on this information. We will suspend the projects if the government budget for these projects isn't sufficient.

What is your personal view of these projects?

I think transparency is an important issue for these projects. If we don't get reliable information, we could not make any assessment of the projects.

What will be the NLD's policy on defense and the army?

The military is a vital organization for any country. The number of forces and units is not important, the military should be a modern army.

What reforms does the NLD have in mind for the government administration?

I believe the government bureaucratic system must be restored in our country to what it was in the past. It was destroyed by military regimes between 1962 and 2010 [and replaced by parallel military power structures]. President Thein Sein's government tried to restore it by appointing permanent secretaries at the ministries. The administrative officials must be under the management of administration executives. We need to strengthen such management systems.

Can you explain this in more detail?

When political leaders lay down plans, administrative officials must implement them. However, political leaders must not intervene in the implementation processes as they have no capacity to do so. If policy-makers intervene in implementation processes, the system will not work well. For example, the military officials [during the junta] took administrative positions, saying they are capable of implementation in certain sectors. But they failed to do so correctly, as different [government] organizations have different procedures.

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