The Irrawaddy Magazine

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• Protesters Push for Peace in Arakan, While Lawmakers Bicker in Rangoon
• Calls for More Women in Peace Process on European Study Tour
• Heavy Winds Hit Mandalay
• Proposed By-Election Changes Aim to Limit Polls’ Frequency
• Ruling Party Members Meet Powerful UWSA in Panghsang
• KNU, RCSS Meet to Ready for ‘Second Panglong’ Summit
• Minister Warns Engineers Will Be Jailed for Poor Roads
• Bill Rescinding Law ‘Incompatible’ With Democracy Goes to Parliament
• Foreign Minister Reaffirms Japan’s Economic Ties to Thailand
• China Trains ‘Fishing Militia’ to Sail Into Disputed Waters

Protesters Push for Peace in Arakan, While Lawmakers Bicker in Rangoon Posted: 02 May 2016 08:02 AM PDT Protesters march in Sittwe, the capital of Arakan State, on Sunday. (Photo: Ko Khaing Mrat) RANGOON — Thousands of people protested throughout northern Arakan State on Sunday demanding that the Burma Army halt operations against the Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed organization. Fighting has flared in the restive state since April 16, forcing thousands of villagers to flee their homes. According to local sources, thousands of Arakanese staged peaceful protests in nine townships of northern Arakan State, which borders Bangladesh. Saw Shwe Maung, a police officer in the ancient city of Mrauk-U, said that 1,500 people participated in a protest in the township, which was led by two influential monks. They had received permission from local authorities. The Arakan National Party (ANP) led about 1,000 protesters in the state capital of Sittwe, according to police officer Aye Khin Maung, who said that permission had been granted for the demonstration. Local sources told The Irrawaddy that some protesters held posters that read: "Burma Army, get out of Arakan State!" An official with the Arakan State government, Min Aung, said that the state administration had discussed how to approach resolving the conflict, but the recent intensification of hostilities had been largely ignored. The Arakan Liberation Party, another ethnic political organization, has accused the Burma Army of war crimes and violating the Geneva Conventions. Min Aung declined to comment on the accusations, saying that it was a military matter. A delegation of lawmakers from across the political spectrum supplied rice and oil to internally displaced people (IDPs) last week. According to the government, more than 1,000 IDPs are now living in monasteries. The Arakan State government does not yet have a resettlement plan for the IDPs, according to Min Aung, who said that the victims "are not too far from their homes to return, but we don't have an official count of how many there are." Khine Pyay Soe, vice chairman of the ANP, said his party has donated five million kyats (US$4,265) to those who have found shelter in monasteries. Some villagers were killed by the Burma Army after being forced to be porters, said Ba Gyi Kyaw of Wunlark Development Foundation, which is providing relief efforts, stressing that the state's affected civilians e"need more support." Meanwhile, ANP members are trying to generate support in Rangoon. Wai Sein Aung, an ANP parliamentarian in the Upper House, submitted an emergency proposal to call a halt to further hostilities in Arakan. This move received immediate opposition from military appointees in the Upper House, who objected to referring to the ethnic armed organization as the "Arakan Army," rather than the "Arakan Armed Group," which the military prefers. Upper House Speaker Mhan Win Khaing Than said that the term "Arakan Armed Group" will be used in the proposal, which is expected to generate heated debate tomorrow. "We mainly proposed two things," the ANP's Wai Sein Aung said. "We want to stop deadly clashes and invite the AA to join peace discussions." The post Protesters Push for Peace in Arakan, While Lawmakers Bicker in Rangoon appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Calls for More Women in Peace Process on European Study Tour Posted: 02 May 2016 07:01 AM PDT Female leaders from Burma stand in front of the Federal Palace of Switzerland in April 2016. (Photo: Nyein Nyein / The Irrawaddy) GENEVA, Switzerland — Bringing more women into Burma's peace process and construction of a federal state is crucial, several of the country's female leaders said during a training tour in Europe last month. The women have played various roles in Burma's peace process and were invited to Switzerland and Norway to learn more about federalism, peace and security issues, and women's empowerment. Both European countries are staunch supporters of conflict resolution in Burma. The participants reflected on how a political dialogue could be conducted in Burma and how federalism could enrich the country's young democracy. Naw Zipporah Sein, the vice chair of the Karen National Union (KNU), an ethnic armed organization that signed the nationwide ceasefire agreement with the government last year, said: "A federal system is best-suited to Burma to ensure equality and democratic rights." "Our public needs to understand how to share power, resources and tax revenue," she said. "Participation from the people in these core aspects of the federal state is essential." Meanwhile, Burma's State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi said last Wednesday that the government was planning to hold a 21st century "Panglong-style" conference within the next two months, referring to a 1947 agreement Suu Kyi's father, Gen. Aung San, forged with several major ethnic minorities. "[This conference] would be a good venue to talk about federal principles," Zipporah Sein said, adding that she hoped the government "creates a space" to include all of the country's ethnic groups, even ones that did not participate in last year's ceasefire signing. Zipporah Sein said that the commitment of the Burma Army, also known as the Tatmadaw, would be important to building genuine peace and a federal union. Additionally, there needed to be reforms within both the Tatmadaw and the ethnic armed organizations, she continued. Chin Chin, an ethnic Chin peace negotiator and the director of the Nationalities Brotherhood Federation, agreed that power sharing among the states and the central government was important to creating a truly federal system like the one used in Switzerland. "We are now able to talk about federalism, something which had been barred from discussion under the military regime," she said. "That makes me satisfied." The delegation is the fourth group to study federalism in Switzerland and was made up of women from ethnic armed organizations, political parties, lawmakers, peace envoys, civil society groups, women's affairs organizations and journalists. Ja Seng Hkawn Maran, a Kachin State parliamentarian from the Kachin State Democracy Party, said that in order to have more women participate in decision-making processes, "We have to change our mindset [that only men can lead], which has been deeply ingrained in us." "Not just the men, but we women too must change our attitudes so that we can learn and lead," she said. "We must cooperate and share responsibilities so that we can achieve equality and basic human rights." Tin Tin Latt, the vice chair of the Myanmar Women's Affairs Federation, said that the knowledge she gained about conflict resolution and federalism during the trip would help her as a participant in Burma's peace process. "The information [about federalism] is all new to me," she said. "We can take some of these practices and apply them [to building our country]." The Myanmar Women's Affairs Federation (MWAF) is the largest women's organization in Burma and boasts the wives of generals and high-ranking military officers as its leaders. "I am now going to share this knowledge with other women in the MWAF, so that they know when building a federal government, collaboration and respecting minority rights are key," Tin Tin Latt said. Switzerland, a federal state, previously hosted three delegations: the Karen National Union (KNU), the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) and representatives from the Burma Army. Both the KNU and the RCSS signed a ceasefire agreement with the government in October 2015. Last month's delegation focused on Switzerland's federalism, the role of the police and the army in state building, power sharing among the central government and regional counterparts, ceasefire processes and minority rights protection under a federal state. Co-organized by SwissPeace and the Burmese NGO Nyein Foundation, and supported by the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, the delegation stayed in Switzerland for 10 days and attended two days of seminars in Norway with support from the Norwegian Foreign Ministry. Editor's Note: The author of this story was among the women's delegation visiting Switzerland and Norway. The post Calls for More Women in Peace Process on European Study Tour appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Heavy Winds Hit Mandalay Posted: 02 May 2016 06:52 AM PDT Heavy winds topple trees in Mandalay. (Photo: Zaw Zaw / The Irrawaddy) MANDALAY — Heavy winds hit towns in Mandalay Division on Friday, leaving them littered with debris and killing at least one person in Pyawbwe Township. Myint Myint Aye, a 32-year-old Pyawbye resident, died when a tree collapsed on top of her on her way home. The division had no other reported fatalities, but the strong winds ripped the roofs off schools and monasteries and damaged local pagodas. The winds uprooted trees, toppled lampposts and injured three residents in Chanmyathazi and Maha Aung Myay townships, parts of Mandalay city. "Areas near Kandawgyi Lake in Chanmyathazi were hit hard. Big trees collapsed and lampposts broke. A tent outside a restaurant blew away and at least three people suffered minor injuries," said an officer from the Mandalay Municipal Department, who was at the scene. The debris blocked roads around Kandawgyi Lake and in Chanmyathazi and Maha Aung Myay townships. Old trees collapsed, damaging power cables and causing severe blackouts. "We are trying our best, with the help of the fire brigade and police, to clean the debris," the officer added. "Technicians from the electrical department are rushing to repair the power cables to restore electricity to the townships." Moreover, in Tatkon Township, near Burma's capital Naypyidaw, three men were struck by lightning and hospitalized with minor injuries, while three others were injured when their homes collapsed. According to Tatkon locals, about 1,000 homes collapsed, while other buildings sustained damage. The winds also destroyed homes, schools, pagodas and monasteries in Mahlaing, Singu, Madaya, Yamethin and Thazi townships. According to a Department of Meteorology announcement, Mandalay, Sagaing and Magwe divisions, along with Kachin, Shan, and Chin states, are expected to receive more heavy winds and rain in the next two days. Independent meteorologist Tun Lwin issued a statement on his website and on social media that the severe weather was a result of El Niño, and warned about future storms as well. "Although the country has faced the effects of El Niño, we also need to prepare for La Niña. The weather forecasts show El Niño weather weakening, and ending in June, while there is a 70 percent chance that La Niña will arrive in September," he wrote on his Facebook. The post Heavy Winds Hit Mandalay appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Proposed By-Election Changes Aim to Limit Polls’ Frequency Posted: 02 May 2016 06:45 AM PDT A woman holds a ballot slip and her national identity card before casting her vote at a polling station during by-elections in Rangoon on April 1, 2012. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters) RANGOON — Burma's Union Parliament is looking to modify election laws to reduce the frequency with which by-elections are held by blocking off the first and fifth year of parliamentary terms as periods in which polls to fill empty seats cannot be called, according to a statement issued on Friday. The amendment would be applied to all of the country's legislative bodies—the Union Parliament's Upper and Lower houses and 14 regional legislatures—which currently require by-elections within six months of a chamber seat being vacant, as per modifications made earlier this year. The change would mark the fourth time amendments were made to a set of three election laws that were enacted in 2010. Sai Kyaw Thu, a director from the election department of the Union Election Commission (UEC), expressed support for the modifications, while noting the important role by-elections play in ensuring voters have a voice in legislatures. "If a constituency has vacant seats for both chambers of the Parliament or regional parliaments for too long, it will not be good for voters [in those constituencies]," he told The Irrawaddy. Election watchdog Thant Zin Aung, who is chairperson of the Forward Institute, agreed with half of the new by-election restrictions, but highlighted the legislative term's first year as critical and suggested that a ban on by-elections in this period would be a mistake. "During the first year of a Parliament, representation of lawmakers must be really strong, especially on a path to democracy like [Burma's] current situation," he said. "Every seat [in Parliament] should be occupied to raise voters' voices. If not, the vacant constituencies will become really weak," he added. "The first year of a Parliament is all about proposing new bills, submitting important proposals—which every lawmaker should be actively involved in." However, Thant Zin Aung said he supported a prohibition on by-elections in the last year of the country's five-year legislative terms. "Holding a by-election in the last year of the Parliament is a waste of money as the legislative body should be already stable and the term will expire in the following year," Thant Zin Aung said. Burma has held just one by-election since its transition to quasi-civilian government began more than five years ago. That by-election, in April 2012, saw the now ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) contest and win dozens of seats, though the party remained an opposition force in the legislature with little power until last year's general election, when it won nearly 80 percent of elected seats. The 2012 by-election was called to fill 45 seats in the Union Parliament, many of which were vacated by members of the formerly ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) who took up positions in the cabinet. The NLD has selected fewer of its cabinet members from the national legislature than its USDP predecessor. Nonetheless several other constituencies remain without representation after the UEC decided not to hold elections in some Shan State townships, citing instability caused by conflict, or in the case of the Wa Special Region, the local Wa authorities' decision not to allow polls in the semi-autonomous zone. The post Proposed By-Election Changes Aim to Limit Polls' Frequency appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Ruling Party Members Meet Powerful UWSA in Panghsang Posted: 02 May 2016 03:39 AM PDT Members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) pose for a photo with leaders of the United Wa State Army (UWSA) in Panghsang, Wa Special Region. (Photo: Wa State TV) RANGOON — Three members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) met leaders from the United Wa State Army (UWSA), Burma's largest ethnic armed group, at the latter's Panghsang headquarters last week, according to a source along the Sino-Burmese border, as the new government begins delving into the country's fractious peace process. Kyi Myint, a spokesperson for the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), told The Irrawaddy on Monday that the two sides "discussed how they will cooperate in the new government's work for peace and development of the country." Kyi Myint is close to UWSA leaders and his armed group has an informal alliance with the Wa. Xiao Ming Liang, vice chairman of the UWSA, and other senior leaders from the group met the three NLD members on April 28 in Panghsang, capital of the Wa Special Region in northeastern Shan State. According to Kyi Myint, the three NLD members—Soe Htay, Than Lwin, and Myint Kyi—were not visiting Panghsang as official envoys of the new government. "As I understand, they did not go as a delegation from the government. They visited there in a personal capacity. … This group was not sent by Daw Suu [NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi]," said Kyi Myint. UWSA leaders, Kyi Myint added, warmly welcomed the delegation and believed that the three NLD members would convey the meeting's takeaways to Suu Kyi and her government despite the informal nature of their visit. Soe Htay is an elected Lower House lawmaker representing Kawkareik Township in Karen State. Than Lwin is an NLD parliamentary communications officer, while Myint Kyi is a member of the Myanmar-China Friendship Association. Both the NLD and UWSA have appeared reluctant to discuss the meeting. Zhao Gaoan, a spokesperson for the UWSA, refused to offer comment when contacted by The Irrawaddy by phone. Tun Tun Hein, an NLD central executive committee member, said he had not heard anything about his party sending the three men to Panghsang. Last week Suu Kyi, the NLD chairwoman and Burma's state counselor, met delegations from the eight non-state armed groups that signed a so-called nationwide ceasefire agreement in October, along with members of the Burma Army. The UWSA is not among the ceasefire signatories, though a 1989 truce between the group and successive central governments has held strong over the years. Kyi Myint said his NDAA and UWSA leaders had agreed to participate in the coming NLD-led peace negotiations with the aim of furthering the country's development. The post Ruling Party Members Meet Powerful UWSA in Panghsang appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

KNU, RCSS Meet to Ready for ‘Second Panglong’ Summit Posted: 02 May 2016 03:29 AM PDT KNU chairman Gen. Mutu Say Poe, right, and RCSS chairman Lt-Gen Yawd Serk chat over a cup of tea during a break in discussions in Chiang Mai, Thailand, over the weekend. (Photo: Kyaw Kha / The Irrawaddy) CHIANG MAI, Thailand — The Karen National Union (KNU) and Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) held private talks here over the weekend about a second "Panglong-style" peace conference, an idea proposed by State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi last week. "As the state counselor focuses on federalism, we are discussing what this Panglong conference should include, as well as the country's current political landscape," KNU Maj-Gen Saw Issac Po told reporters in the northern Thai city. Suu Kyi called for a "Panglong-style" summit to be held within two months, when she addressed the Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee (JMC) in Naypyidaw on Wednesday, a meeting that included representatives from signatories to the so-called nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA). That accord was signed on Oct. 15 under Burma's previous quasi-civilian government. The two groups meeting in Chiang Mai talked about the type of federalism that the eight NCA signatories would demand during peace talks, the new government's negotiation team, and Suu Kyi's proposed Panglong conference, said RCSS spokesman Lt-Col Sai Hseng Murng. The first Panglong Conference was held on the eve of Burma's independence in 1947 by Suu Kyi's father, Gen. Aung San, and leaders from three of the country's ethnic minority groups. The meeting to determine how the new union of Burma would be constituted is widely praised for the spirit of cooperation that it fostered between the dominant Burman majority and ethnic minorities at the time. "The term '21st century Panglong Conference' has been used by Suu Kyi. So far, we don't know what [the conference] will be like. We are discussing the sort of federalism that the ethnic groups envision in preparation for the talks," the lieutenant-colonel told the press. The KNU and the RCSS are the two most powerful groups among the eight NCA signatories, as well the leaders of the Ethnic Armed Organizations Peace Process Steering Team (EAO-PPST), which was formed by the signatories to provide leadership during future peace talks. KNU chairman Gen. Mutu Say Poe is the EAO-PPST leader, RCSS chairman Lt-Gen Yawd Serk serves as deputy leader, and other leaders of the NCA signatory groups are team members. The post KNU, RCSS Meet to Ready for 'Second Panglong' Summit appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Minister Warns Engineers Will Be Jailed for Poor Roads Posted: 02 May 2016 02:44 AM PDT A rainbow is seen in the background as a bus plies the Rangoon-Mandalay highway. (Photo: The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — During a press conference on Saturday about a 100-day plan to reduce road accidents on the Rangoon-Mandalay motorway, Construction Minister Win Khaing said engineers involved in building Burma's new roads will be thrown in jail if the roads do not last at least five years. "We firmly guarantee that if the roads don't last the five years of the new government's tenure, we'll send those engineers [involved in construction] to jail," Win Khaing said. The warning comes amid long-standing public criticism against previous government attempts to construct new roads, many of which are rendered unusable during monsoon season and are in generally poor condition throughout the rest of the year. Win Khaing acknowledged that, on its own, his ministry lacks the budget necessary to repair the entire Rangoon-Mandalay motorway, which spans nearly 400 miles and has become notorious for fatal road accidents since it was opened in 2010. He added that his staff would do their best to repair a 20-mile stretch of the motorway and that he would seek international assistance to repair the rest. "We don't have the budget [to repair the entire motorway]. If we divide the budget, we can only allocate about 10 billion kyats [US$8.6 million] for each township. [Therefore] we have to find international development partners [in order to fully repair the motorway]," Win Khaing said. The minister stressed that Burma is in desperate need of general infrastructural development, describing improvement to infrastructure as key to citizens' socioeconomic development. "It's critically important that roads linking villages and districts are fit for purpose so that people can have a better standard of living," he said. From its opening in 2010 to the end of 2014, some 400 people have been killed and more than 1,000 more wounded in road accidents on the Rangoon-Mandalay motorway. According to Win Khaing, the Ministry of Construction is also planning to launch an affordable housing project in the capital Naypyidaw. This new housing is expected to include about 40 apartments, each priced lower than 10 million kyats [$8,605]. The post Minister Warns Engineers Will Be Jailed for Poor Roads appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Bill Rescinding Law ‘Incompatible’ With Democracy Goes to Parliament Posted: 02 May 2016 12:57 AM PDT Aung San Suu Kyi attends parliamentary meeting in the Lower House on Aug. 6 2012. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters) RANGOON — The push to rescind a law that was used to oppress Aung San Suu Kyi and other pro-democracy advocates gained momentum on Monday, as a new bill overturning the 1975 legislation was formally submitted to Burma's Parliament. The Bill Committee in the Lower House took the stage Monday to denounce the law, which was enacted during Burma's socialist era. "The law violates Article 8 of the 2008 Constitution, which protects the fundamental rights of citizens," said Kyaw Soe Lin, a member of the committee. "It [the law] is not compatible with democracy." Lawmakers of the legislative body, which is dominated by Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), have pledged to revoke laws that oppress Burma's citizens and amend those that have flaws. Legal experts have welcomed the new bill and have said the existing law is "absolutely unnecessary." The law, which is also known as "Lower House Parliament Law No. 3, 1975" or the "Law to Safeguard the State Against the Dangers of Those Desiring to Cause Subversive Acts," was used by previous governments to circumscribe the rights of opponents of successive military regimes. The law was enacted "to prevent the infringement of the sovereignty and security of the Union of Burma against any threat to the peace of the people, and against the threat of those desiring to commit subversive acts causing the destruction of the country, without impeding citizens' fundamental rights," according to its preamble. Lower House Speaker Win Myint said at the legislative session that comments from lawmakers on the bill are scheduled to be heard on Thursday. The post Bill Rescinding Law 'Incompatible' With Democracy Goes to Parliament appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Foreign Minister Reaffirms Japan’s Economic Ties to Thailand Posted: 01 May 2016 11:01 PM PDT Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, left, meets with Thailand's Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Bangkok on May 1, 2016.  (Photo: Reuters) BANGKOK — Japan's foreign minister arrived in Bangkok on Sunday aiming to reaffirm economic ties after Japanese investments in Thailand slumped last year amid political concerns as well as stiff competition emerging from more nimble neighbors. Japan has historically been the largest investor in Thailand, Southeast Asia's second biggest economy, which it sees as an important production base. However, Japanese investments in Thailand nosedived by 81 percent last year, according to official data, something analysts say mirrors concern about Thailand's economy which continues to struggle under prolonged military rule. Increased competition from the region's newer economies, such as Vietnam and Burma, is posing another threat to foreign investment in Thailand. Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida told a news conference after meeting his Thai counterpart at the beginning of a two-day visit that Thailand remained an important stakeholder. "Thailand is a stakeholder that Japan cannot be without as many big and medium-sized Japanese firms from over 4,500 companies are based here," Kishida told reporters. Japan still came top in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Thailand last year, with total investments approved valued at more than 144 billion baht (US$4.13 billion). A senior Japanese diplomat, who wanted to remain anonymous, said Thailand's military government was keen to allay Japanese fears on potential political obstacles to investment. Thailand has been ruled by a junta since the military took power in a May 2014 coup. The junta has promised a swift return to democracy but has pushed back a general election now expected to take place in mid-2017. The military government, led by Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, has struggled to revive Thailand's export-dependent economy. The country has seen a fresh wave of small, anti-junta protests over the past two weeks ahead of an Aug. 7 referendum on a draft constitution that critics say will enshrine military power. Kishida's visit to Bangkok kicks off his tour of the region including Burma, Laos and Vietnam. It follows his visit to Beijing where China and Japan both expressed willingness to improve strained relations over conflicting territorial claims in the East China Sea. The post Foreign Minister Reaffirms Japan's Economic Ties to Thailand appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

China Trains ‘Fishing Militia’ to Sail Into Disputed Waters Posted: 01 May 2016 10:24 PM PDT Fishing boats with Chinese national flags are seen at a harbor in Tanmen, Hainan province, on April 5, 2016.  (Photo: Reuters) BAIMAJING, China — The fishing fleet based in this tiny port town on Hainan island is getting everything from military training and subsidies to even fuel and ice as China creates an increasingly sophisticated fishing militia to sail into the disputed South China Sea. The training and support includes exercises at sea and requests to fishermen to gather information on foreign vessels, provincial government officials, regional diplomats and fishing company executives said in recent interviews. "The maritime militia is expanding because of the country's need for it, and because of the desire of the fishermen to engage in national service, protecting our country's interests," said an advisor to the Hainan government who did not want to be named. But the fishing militia also raises the risk of conflict with foreign navies in the strategic waterway through which US$5 trillion of trade passes each year, diplomats and naval experts say. The United States has been conducting sea and air patrols near artificial islands China is building in the disputed Spratlys archipelago, including by two B-52 strategic bombers in November. Washington said in February it would increase the "freedom of navigation" sail-bys around the disputed sea. Basic Military Training The city-level branches of the People's Armed Forces Department provide basic military training to fishermen, said the Hainan government advisor. The branches are overseen by both the military and local Communist Party authorities in charge of militia operations nationwide. The training encompasses search and rescue operations, contending with disasters at sea, and "safeguarding Chinese sovereignty," said the advisor who focuses on the South China Sea. The training, which includes exercises at sea, takes place between May and August and the government pays fishermen for participating, he said. Government subsidies encourage fishermen to use heavier vessels with steel—as opposed to wooden—hulls. The government has also provided Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) equipment for at least 50,000 vessels, enabling them to contact the Chinese Coast Guard in maritime emergencies, including encounters with foreign ships, industry executives said. Several Hainan fishermen and diplomats told Reuters some vessels have small arms. When "a particular mission in safeguarding sovereignty" comes up, government authorities will coordinate with the fishing militia, the advisor said, asking them to gather information on the activities of foreign vessels at sea. Row With Indonesia That coordination was evident in March, when Indonesia attempted to detain a Chinese fishing vessel for fishing near its Natuna Islands in the South China Sea. A Chinese coast guard vessel quickly intervened to prevent the Indonesian Navy from towing away the fishing boat, setting off a diplomatic row. Beijing does not claim the Natunas but said the boats were in "traditional Chinese fishing grounds." China claims almost all of the South China Sea. The Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan and Brunei also have conflicting claims over the islets and atolls that constitute the Spratly Archipelago and its rich fishing grounds. State-controlled fishing companies dominate the fleets that go regularly to the Spratlys and are recipients of much of the militia training and subsidies, industry sources said. China has by far the world's biggest fish industry, but depleted fishery resources close to China's shores have made fishing in disputed waters an economic necessity, fishermen and industry executives say. State-owned Hainan South China Sea Modern Fishery Group Company says on its website it is "both military and commercial, both soldiers and civilians." One of its aims, the company says, is to let the "Chinese flag fly" over the Spratlys. "Defending sovereignty is primarily the government's concern," said Ye Ning, the company's general manager, in an interview at his office in Haikou. "But of course, regular folks being able to fish in their own countries' waters should be the norm. That goes for us too." The company provides fishermen who sail to the Spratlys with fuel, water and ice, and then purchases fish from them when they returned, according to a written introduction to the company's work that executives provided to Reuters. 'A Lot More Risky' "It's gotten a lot more risky to do this with all kinds of foreign boats out there," said Huang Jing, a local fisherman in the sleepy port town of Baimajing, where a line of massive steel-hulled fishing trawlers stretches as far as the eye can see. "But China is strong now," he said. "I trust the government to protect us." Chen Rishen, chairman of Hainan Jianghai Group Co. Ltd, says his private but state subsidized company dispatches large fleets of steel-hulled trawlers weighing hundreds of tons to fish near the Spratly Islands. They usually go for months at a time, primarily for commercial reasons, he said. "If some foreign fishing boats infringe on our territory and try to prevent us from fishing there … Then we're put in the role of safeguarding sovereignty," he said in an interview in Haikou, the provincial capital of Hainan. China does not use its fishing fleet to help establish sovereignty claims in the South China Sea, foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said: "This kind of situation does not exist." China had taken measures to ensure the fishing fleets conduct business legally, he told a ministry press briefing last month. Rules of Engagement Chen said his fishermen stop at Woody Island in the Paracel islands, where China recently installed surface-to-air missiles, to refuel and communicate with Chinese Coast Guard vessels. They look forward to using similar facilities China is developing in the Spratly Islands, he said. China has been pouring sand from the seabed onto seven reefs to create artificial islands in the Spratlys. So far, it has built one airstrip with two more under construction on them, with re-fueling and storage facilities. "This all points to the need for establishing agreed protocols for ensuring clear and effective communications between civilian and maritime law enforcement vessels of different countries operating in the area," said Michael Vatikiotis, Asia Director of the Center for Humanitarian Dialogue, which is helping claimant states design such confidence-building measures. A regional agreement on communications and procedures when rival navies meet at sea applies only to naval ships and other military vessels, he said. The post China Trains 'Fishing Militia' to Sail Into Disputed Waters appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

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National News

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• "Rohingya" ferry victims not Rohingya
• YCDC election delayed to bring in more votes
• Transportation problems already hitting drought-affected Inle Lake villages
• Resource officials inspect mines
• U Shwe Mann continues fighting party expulsion
• UWSA wants China in peace process
• After lull, clashes resume in Shan State
• Heat takes its toll
• Weather forecasters predict less rain as high temps continue
• Construction minister demands quality roads

"Rohingya" ferry victims not Rohingya Posted: 01 May 2016 02:30 PM PDT Most of the 21 people confirmed drowned when a boat carrying Muslim IDPs sank off Rakhine State last month were ethnic Kaman and not Rohingya as widely reported, according to relatives and survivors who say they are forgotten victims of religious persecution in Myanmar.

YCDC election delayed to bring in more votes Posted: 01 May 2016 02:30 PM PDT The government is delaying elections for Yangon City Development Committee, calling for amendments that would allow far more people to vote.

Transportation problems already hitting drought-affected Inle Lake villages Posted: 01 May 2016 02:30 PM PDT Hot season is already taking a toll on Inle Lake, where increasingly shallow waters are preventing transportation to some villages. Locals anticipate the problem will only become more dire after Thingyan, when the mercury is expected to rise further.

Resource officials inspect mines Posted: 01 May 2016 02:30 PM PDT The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment is conducting an inspection of mines in Kachin State, according to a state official.

U Shwe Mann continues fighting party expulsion Posted: 01 May 2016 02:30 PM PDT Ousted Union Solidarity and Development Party leader Thura U Shwe Mann and his allies are still battling their expulsion, demanding an emergency meeting at the end of the month.

UWSA wants China in peace process Posted: 01 May 2016 02:30 PM PDT Myanmar's most powerful ethnic armed group, the United Wa State Army, has set out its demands for the peace process – including China's participation – following talks with a delegation from the National League for Democracy.

After lull, clashes resume in Shan State Posted: 01 May 2016 02:30 PM PDT Clashes were reported to have resumed yesterday between two ethnic armies in northern Shan State following a pause of several weeks.

Heat takes its toll Posted: 01 May 2016 02:30 PM PDT The heat wave is bearing down on elderly Yangon residents and claiming lives, according to the Free Funeral Service Society.

Weather forecasters predict less rain as high temps continue Posted: 01 May 2016 02:30 PM PDT Monsoon season is likely to start providing a reprieve from the heat in the first week of June, according to the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. Most areas are slated for less than average rainfall.

Construction minister demands quality roads Posted: 01 May 2016 02:30 PM PDT Engineers beware: Shoddy work could result in prison time. Construction Minister U Win Khaing has pledged to sue those responsible for subpar roadwork that falls apart within five years.

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• Shan rights group urges government action in sexual assault case
• 21 Century Panglong Convention: A way forward for peace process?
• Burma army mobilization in Kokang blocks refugee returns says report
• A NEW BURMA PEACE PROCESS – PART 2

Shan rights group urges government action in sexual assault case Posted: 02 May 2016 04:26 AM PDT The Shan Women's Action Network (SWAN) issued a statement last week calling on Burmese government authorities to take steps to ensure that due process is followed in a sexual assault case involving a teenage Shan women. The group alleges that the victim, who remains unnamed, was sexually assaulted by her businessmen employer in Mandalay 2014. SWAN alleges that the young victim was sexually assaulted by Maung Hla Sein, also known as Kin Min Jee, age 24, the manager of the Xin Hua Company and later physically assaulted by his father-in-law U Kyan Yee Kane, the owner of the Xin Hua Company. According to SWAN the first incident took place on November 6 2014 when the then 17-year old Shan teenager, a cook for the Xin Hua Company in Mandalay, was sexually assaulted by Maung Hla Sein, at the Shwe Phyu Guesthouse. At the time of the alleged incident Maung Hla Sein was in charge of the local Xin Hua Company branch. According to SWAN following the sexual assault Maung Hla Sein told the then 17 year old that they would get married. The young women continued to stay with the man for 3 months and became pregnant. Maung Hla Sein, allegedly drugged her without her consent causing their unborn child to be aborted. Maung Hla Sein, is then alleged to have told the victim to go back to her home, after promising her that he would marry her within two months. This never happened, according to SWAN. It is alleged that Maung Hla Sein later phoned the victim and told her that they could not marry because he was already married but that he would give her 40,000 Kyat (approx US$33,000) as compensation for what he did. According to SWAN however he never paid her the promised funds, the young women then filed a law suit against him. According to SWAN while the suit was still pending the young woman was summoned by Maung Hla Sein's father in-law, U Kyan Yee Kane, to come to their family's home Muse in order to discuss the settlement. According to SWAN, "When she arrived at the house at 7 pm on 7 May 2015, U Kyan Yee Kane and his entire family brutally beat the girl, stripping her of her clothing. She managed to escape with no clothes on," The the victim then filed a report about the incident with police authorities in Muse. According to SWAN,"Since then, there have been more than 30 court appointments regarding the case. The Police officer responsible for the assault case, Sub Inspector of Police, U Aung Lin never appeared in court. There has been no examination of the attackers, U Kyan Yee Kane and Daw Ah Shwin." In March 2016, the victim was informed that she was being sued by U Kyun Yee Kane and is facing charges under Penal Codes 447 & 427. The same judge, U Sithu Tun , is supposed to be presiding over both cases. Reached for comment, Ying Harn Fah, a spokesperson for SWAN told the Shan Herald that she is concerned that the accused's wealth and influence has been used to further harm the young woman. "Nobody has stood on the side of the young woman who has been violated, including the government. That's why I want the new government to know this. I want to warn them that allowing foreign businessmen to manipulate Burma's judiciary is an infringement of the country's sovereignty," she said. Yein Han Pha added that her group will continue to support the Shan teenager throughout her ordeal. "SWAN will stand on the side of violated and oppressed women. I want to request the public to help and support the women who are victims of injustice. In most cases, the families abandon the case and fail to report them to the police because of their feelings of shame. Such kind of things shouldn't happen in this era. I want everyone to give their support and take fair action against injustice", Ying Harn Fah said.

21 Century Panglong Convention: A way forward for peace process? Posted: 02 May 2016 04:07 AM PDT Concerning the pending and failed peace process, a lot of people, including Burma watchers were expecting another spectacular performance from Aung San Suu Kyi. However, they were disappointed as it turned out to be an average show, not comparable in anyway to the two extra-ordinary political moves played out earlier by the National League for Democracy (NLD) regime, namely: the creation of a State Counsellor position Suu Kyi against the military (Tatmadaw) strong opposition and the mass release of the political prisoners, incarcerated by the former, Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP)-Military regime. True to her conviction, Aung San Suu Kyi did tried to impress her audience by declaring that she is keen to start a nationwide political dialogue, dubbed the "21st Century Panglong" within one or two months, during a speech given in Naypyitaw, on 27 April, at the Union Ceasefire Joint Monitoring Committee (JMC-U) meeting that was supposed to be her first serious political appearance, after taking office as a State Counsellor. While she admitted that it is a sort of information gathering, learning and orientation to be acquainted with the works done by the previous administration regarding their undertakings, she left no doubt that the course of peace process would be set by her, involving restructuring of the Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) and perhaps, even introducing the whole new game plan, although she hasn't spelled it out as yet. For the moment, her intention was said to be convening the political dialogue, which she might and could term it as 21st Century Panglong, while at the same time, wooing the non-signatory Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) to sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). Now let us look at the reactions of the ethnic leaders and the Tatmadaw on this latest Aung San Suu Kyi's initiative. Responses of the ethnic leaders Regarding Suu Kyi's initiative, Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) Chairman Hkun Htun Oo, according to BBC, said that to achieve peace, constitutional amendment is essential, for the EAOs are also asking for it. As circumventing it is not possible, the present regime should discuss and secure promises from the military. He stressed that doubts are growing between the military and EAOs and thus is impossible to amend constitution through the peace conference. And also since both camps are having their own policy and planning, only sitting down at the table on an equal basis would be able to resolve the problems. He added further, "At the moment, Burma's political situation is not even clear who is leading (the country)". SNLD Secretary General Sai Nyunt Lwin, who was offered a minister post by NLD but declined due to his party decision, was also of the opinion that it would be more appropriate to start the Suu Kyi's initiated move only after the problematic of armed conflict is resolved. He said: "I welcome (Suu Kyi's initiated) convention and also endorsed it. But desiring it to happen within one or two months and don't want to wait longer is just the opinion of the elder sister (Suu Kyi). In reality there could be a lot of problems. It is impossible to start an all-inclusive discussion within two months. A lot of talking is needed with the Tatmadaw. Raging battles are not the only concern of the Tatmadaw, (we) need to talk with the other side (EAOs) as well. (We) could start the negotiation only if both sides could stop fighting." Secretary General of United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) Khu Oo Reh also echoed the same when he said: "My view is that if we are going to hold such convention, we would need a common agreement. And to prepare details concerning political issues and discussion together, we need to first stop the ongoing war. (We) just can't lightly say that the ceasefire is already there. I think firstly it has to be firmly consolidated." UNFC Vice-Chairman Nai Han Tha's point of view was more or less along the same line and stressed that Panglong-like conference or convention would only be effective, if it is all-inclusive and nationwide ceasefire could be implemented. But in order to do it he said: "All EAOs need to participate and nationwide ceasefire has to be in place. Otherwise, it would be also good if the government could declare unilateral ceasefire and invite all (EAOs). For example, in 1963, the government just stopped fighting and invited all (anti-government combatants). The (present) regime could also do the same." The Tatmadaw Generally, the military seems to be in tune with the policy of NLD, although armed confrontations are ongoing in Kachin, Shan and Ararkan States. Lieutenant General Yar Pyae, vice-chairman of the Union-level JMC formed by eight armed ethnic groups who signed a so-called NCA and the military last October under the former military-backed government led by Thein Sein, said prior to the Aung San Suu Kyi's attendance of the meeting on 27 April: "The new government has said many times that it will work to prioritize national reconciliation and peace as its policy." "The groups that have signed the NCA should work [as examples] for achieving national reconciliation and peace," Yar Pyae said. "We will work to stop fighting by connecting with each other, because we have networks." In an interview with BBC Burmese, Colonel Wunna Aung, secretary of the JMC-U described Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's perspective on the peace process as a continuation of the Tatmadaw's goals. "What she said is in line with what we have been doing," said the Colonel. "The most important thing is the ceasefire. Only after the ceasefire can we move on to political dialogue and the peace conference." According to an interview with an online media, Col Wunna Aung, who is also a spokesperson for the Tatmadaw, besides being a member of the JMC-U, recently said: "We will cooperate. We'll form committees and continue engaging in the peace process. It is too early to say when [a second Panglong conference can be held]. We still can't say, as we have not yet prepared. We are no longer fighting with the eight groups with which we have signed the ceasefire. As we are an organization dedicated to peace, we will give a hand to the peace process." Outlook and analysis The military doesn't vary much with the ethnic leaders on the convening of peace conference, or according to Suu Kyi's wish of 21st Century Panglong Convention, that it needs to wait until real ceasefire on the ground could be established. But the major responsibility hinges upon the military, for so long as it is entertaining the idea of being the sole enforcer and protector of the national unity and sovereignty, going about with its military offensives within the ethnic homelands, in the name of establishing the "area of influence and peacefulness" policy, the war cannot be stopped, much less the durable ceasefire. The case in point, why meaningful ceasefire could be hard to achieve might be the explanation made by the Pyidaungsu Institute's Director Khuensai Jaiyane, when he said: "The Burmese military seems to want to secure as much land as it can before political dialogue starts with the new government. These kind of acts affect trust." Generally speaking, the phobia that the EAOs would opt for secession from the union by the Tatmadaw and Bamar political class is an outdated perception, given the unfavourable contemporary regional and international configuration in facilitating such an ambition. And as such, they have all given up the aspiration of total independence and since years projected their aims to a practically achievable genuine federalism, within the mould of the present political entity. Likewise, all the non-Bamar ethnic nationalities have embarked on a federalism solution, as a way out of the ongoing ethnic conflict and realization of their political aspirations. However, the existing reality on the ground are ongoing wars in Shan, Kachin and Ararkan States, involving Kachin Independence Army, Shan State Progress Party,Ta'ang National Liberation Army, Kokang's Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ararkan Army, while latent conflict prevails with all the non-signatory EAOs, including the United Wa State Army, which fields some 30,000 troops and is the strongest ethnic armed group. Adding to these debacles are the Tatmadaw's positioning of a "state within a state" posture which tend to leave the government of the day powerless to deal with the peace initiative in an effective and appropriate manner, as the former Thein Sein regime had shown, during his five years tenure. The present NLD government, no doubt, also faces the same position. The name of the game then is to ponder on a workable cooperation between the NLD regime and the Tatmadaw, so that real ceasefire on the ground could be implemented. For now, the strained situation between the two adversaries are compounded by a number of disagreement, undertaken by the NLD, such as creation and appointment of Suu Kyi to a State Counsellor position and mass release of the former regime's political opposition prisoners. Recently, as if to stoke the military's burning anger, although symbolic and insignificant it might seem, the publicized administrative line-up in the presidential Facebook, which placed Suu Kyi second in line, after the President and pushed down the Commander-in-Chief one place down to the eighth place, is not so helpful or conducive for the cooperation to materialize. Furthermore, Thura Shwe Mann, who recently called on his 11th in-take classmate of the DSA to join the Suu Kyi's regime in the democratization and development of the country is seen by the Tatmadaw as driving a wedge between the military establishment. More so, as Shwe Mann is a former USDP second boss and now head of the Commission for the Assessment of Legal Affairs and Special Issues, under the NLD regime. Given such prevailing political atmosphere, Suu Kyi is faced with a dilemma of escalating the latent conflict to an open one and reversing the confrontation course to a manageable level that the military could accept without losing face, enabling the top brass to fade away in silence, coupled with a continuation of democratization process that would benefit the country and the people. Thus, handling this delicate political situation, or charting the troubled political waters, would largely depend on the ability, far-sightedness and tactfulness  of the NLD leadership and Suu Kyi. In the same vein, the Tatmadaw leadership would need to accept and confront with the reality of the people's wish, personified by Suu Kyi and her NLD, and do away with its entrenched, privileged stature of a "state within a state" of more than 50 years. If such a compromise could be worked out, unilateral ceasefire on the part of the NLD regime could be easily announced and implemented, followed by all-inclusive invitation of all ethnic armed combatants without preconditions, leading to an all-inclusive Panglong-like convention and eventually, a set of political settlement that all could identify and live with.

Burma army mobilization in Kokang blocks refugee returns says report Posted: 01 May 2016 08:57 PM PDT A new report released recently by the Shan Human Rights Foundation (SHRF) alleges that an ongoing mobilization of army troops in northern Shan state along the border with China in Kokang has made it "impossible for tens of thousands of Kokang refugees to return home". The outbreak of heavy fighting between Kokang forces from the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Burmese government troops in February of last year led to an estimated 100,000 refugees fleeting from the homes, many of the refugee arrived in China. "Now continuing persecution by Burmese troops camped near their villages is preventing many of these refugees from returning home," concludes the SHRF report released on April 22nd. "No one can go back to our village now. The Burma Army has blocked the road to our village. They have also laid land mines at the border to prevent people crossing over", said a 61 year old refugee farmer from Shung Diao Ai interviewed by SHRF. According to this man three other refugees returned to his village to check on their possessions in March of last year and they were never seen from again. SHRF interviewed refugees from more than 20 villages in Laogai and Konkyan townships, many of whom described their villages as completely "deserted or with only a few inhabitants temporarily staying to look after their farms". According to SHRF the interviews indicate that there is a "deliberate strategy by the Burma Army to depopulate the eastern border regions of the entire Kokang self administered zone." Another refugees SHRF interviewed also described other serious human rights abuses including rape being carried out by Burma army soldiers on Kokang refugee women who sought to return to their villages last year. Report: UN downplays Kokang refugee crisis Citing figures from aid workers, SHRF reports that there are still more than 20,000 Kokang refugees enduring increasingly precarious conditions in China's Yunnan province. A recent report from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) on Burma's refugee situation released in January estimated that only 4,000 Kokang refugees remain in China, something that doesn't sit well with SHRF who say that the UNOCHA report "downplays the severity of the crisis". SHRF's research found that many of the refugees who fled to China are currently "sheltering in makeshift camps just inside the Chinese border, surviving on donations from volunteers and wage labour in nearby farms". Compounding the crisis, Chinese authorities shut down the official camps last year, according to SHRF. In the report's conclusion the group called on donors and aid agencies "to seek ways to address the urgent humanitarian and protection needs of the refugees sheltering along the Kokang-China border."

A NEW BURMA PEACE PROCESS – PART 2 Posted: 01 May 2016 06:40 PM PDT In my first article about the reset of the negotiations in Burma, I made the following points: The NCA should be abandoned; new people were needed (the MPC staff should be excluded from the peace process); the ethnic and religious census results should be published immediately; the law should be changed so the EAOs are not designated as illegal; the NLD should take ownership of the process; and, the focus should be on achieving peace on the ground, before proceeding to political negotiations. Aung San Suu Kyi has just attended a meeting of the Joint Monitoring Committee - she does appear to be taking control of the process. But, the JMC was an outcome of the so-called NCA between the military dictatorship and two resistance armies, the leaders of which were bribed by Europe to sign. In addition, the MPC is going to be renamed the National Reconciliation and Peace Center. It apparently will survive (probably at the behest of Europe), although it is uncertain if the old faces will return. Just by participating in this meeting, Suu Kyi gave legitimacy to the NCA. She further said, as quoted by DVB: "By strengthening the ceasefire we have now and making evident the positive outcomes of a strong ceasefire to the public, we can entice the remaining parties to join in and pave the way for peace talks that can promise us perpetual peace." This statement signifies a couple of things. First, she believes there is a ceasefire. This is ridiculous, as the dictatorship is attacking the EAOs in many different places. The Burma Army even last week invaded the KNDO HQ, which NCA violation led the group to announce: "The NCA is bringing a fake peace in our territories and this evil accord was only implemented to destroy the ethnic people." Secondly, Suu Kyi also has no intention to abandon the NCA. She merely wants the non-signer EAOs to sign. These groups resisted years of intensive pressure, because it meant surrender, and now her strategy appears to be: Well, just sign - surrender - anyway. Dear Daw Suu: There will be no "positive outcomes," or "strong ceasefire." Please understand, the old peace process served the dictatorship perfectly. Nothing concrete happened and the Burma Army came under no pressure: to stop offensives, war crimes, even to implement code of conduct measures with the groups, such as the KNU, with which it had deals. It was a time wasting exercise. For Senior General Than Shwe, it did exactly what he wanted. Now, you are proposing that the process that suited him perfectly be continued. At the JMC meeting she further called for a new Panglong conference, in one to two months time, which would be a political meeting, and for which an enduring peace on the ground is absolutely essential. Also, the census results are still not published, one month after the NLD has taken over the government; and, while the law is being changed to decriminalize protest, it is unclear if this will extend to the armed resistance groups. The issue of False Equivalence The reason all of this is important is because it reveals the fundamental assumption underlying the entire negotiation: that the two sides have equal legitimacy. But, while the Burman dictators and the EAOs are absolutely the two sides of the negotiation, they are not equal. The first is the oppressor and the second the oppressed. In many peace talks, such as over borders or territory, the different sides often have authentic positions tied to history. The purpose of the discussion is therefore to negotiate these differences. This does not hold for Burma. Indeed, Harvard Law School researchers who studied the country concluded that the generals have committed war crimes. They shouldn't even be in the peace process. They should be arrested, and tried at the International Criminal Court. When Sui Kyi says that she has warm feelings for the Burma Army, or that the NCA should be extended, she is reinforcing the false equivalence between the dictators and the EAOs. She, possibly without even realizing it, has picked sides. To once again state the obvious: any peace process that is biased will fail. The EAOs' greatest fear has always been that Suu Kyi would align with the Burma Army. This would give credence to the idea that they are insurgents. This is why they and their activist allies have repeatedly documented that it is the military who are the terrorists, and who have invaded the ethnic homelands like a colonizing force and committed crimes against humanity. The possible explanations for Suu Kyi's bias include that she doesn't really understand it - she lacks both self knowledge and a deep appreciation of what is taking place and what needs to be done to bring peace to Burma; that it is actually an overt characteristic - she is a Burman racist; or that she is uninformed. To be polite, I will assume the last. When she was under house arrest, she obviously had limited access to information, but this no longer holds. Suu Kyi should make a sincere effort to understand Burma's civil war, including its daily manifestations. She further needs help to do this. For example, President Obama is given an intelligence brief, every morning, about events - notably military events - that are signifiant to U.S. interests and policy. Suu Kyi needs the same type of brief. In the first article I said that the NLD should establish a peace working group, to manage the process. One of the responsibilities of this group should be to prepare this brief, including of all the conflict currently underway in the different parts of Burma. Furthermore, the EAOs should help with this, since they have the best battlefield intel. They should email sitreps to the new NLD peace group, which can then include the info in Suu Kyi's briefs. I would also suggest that the first order of business for the EAOs, through the UNFC, should be to compile a list of all the Burma Army bases and outposts in their territory, including with the number of soldiers present and their heavy equipment such as artillery and aircraft. There are no doubt hundreds of such bases. Lists, and if possible maps, would make the full extent of the Burma Army colonization clear, and also that the obvious route to peace is for the generals to withdraw. Lastly, in a negotiation there is an agenda, of what needs to be discussed. But, for Burma, there is one thing that is not subject to negotiation. The Burma Army must stop its attacks. Aung San Suu Kyi can believe in unicorns, for all I care, but there won't be peace in the country until the military dictatorship ends it offensives. A new Panglong This brings us to the idea that it is possible to have a new Panglong conference, in short order. Suu Kyi's proposal misses a basic point. The Panglong Agreement was signed in February 1947. This was a year and a half after the end of World War II; before the assassination of Aung San that July; and almost two years before eventual dictator Ne Win started attacking the Karen in Insein and other townships. This means Panglong was signed during that rare thing for Burma, a period of peace, and with a trusted leader in charge. Suu Kyi may be trusted by many people, including some EAO leaders, but there is no peace. There is no possibility at all of a new Panglong until there is peace on the ground, and for an extended period. But, this isn't up to her. Regarding conflict, the generals are in charge. And, if anything, they have increased their attacks since the election. Suu Kyi promoting the possibility is simply raising false hopes and expectations. It may even be an attempt to deceive (that she can bring peace to the country without confronting the military). Finally, if such a time does arrive when a new Panglong conference may be held, the EAOs should be extremely careful about signing anything. The original agreement is still valid, and it gives them many rights, including to secede. A new agreement will rescind this. Considering how uncertain the future of Burma is, with the dictators still in power and clearly after Suu Kyi leaves the scene, the EAOs need to hold onto their guns and not yield any of their rights. The National Census In conclusion, I want to return to the unpublished national census results once again. Why do I focus so intently on what seems to be a minor issue? The reason is that their publication could change the peace negotiation if not the entire national dynamic. Everything about Burma is based on a single idea, that the Burmans are the majority. It underlies the generals' demand that they be in charge, and that the EAOs have no right to leave the union much less autonomy. It further supports the false equivalence - the dictators must be legitimate since they "represent" the majority. But, what if the Burmans aren't the majority? Prior national surveys counted all Buddhists as Burmans and mixed group individuals as well. The results, therefore, were false. But now there is a much better, and U.N. sponsored, count. It is quite possible if not likely that pure-Burmans (both parents are Burman) are not in the majority. Instead, the country has no majority. It is a collection of disparate minority groups! In that case, no one group can claim precedence. Indeed, the country must have a federal democracy. No other system can work. Suu Kyi, though, is extending the censorship. This combined with her appointment of regime official Thein Swe as Immigration and Population head is very suspicious. She is either being timid - she fears what will happen if the truth is known; or she really is a Burman bigot and racist, and not only against the Rohingya. Aung San Suu Kyi: Don't live in fear! Please release the ethnic and religious breakdowns. The truth will set you, and the country, free. http://www.dictatorwatch.org/articles/newpeaceprocess2.html By Roland Watson Dictator Watch

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