Saturday, August 6, 2016

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine


This Week in Parliament (August 1-5)

Posted: 05 Aug 2016 07:33 PM PDT

A view of the Union Parliament in Naypyidaw during its opening session on Feb. 8, 2016. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

A view of the Union Parliament in Naypyidaw during its opening session on Feb. 8, 2016. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

The Bill Committee put forward a bill in the Lower House to annul the 1950 Emergency Provisions Act, which has been described as a threat to Burmese citizens' fundamental rights. The Lower House approved debate of the bill and invited lawmakers to discuss it at a later point in time.

In the Upper House, Dr. San Maung Maung, a lawmaker representing Pegu Division Constituency 1, highlighted the negative consequences of drinking liquor and asked if the government planned to take a tough stance on production and distribution of homebrew and bootleg liquor as well as increase taxes. The deputy home affairs minister responded that alcohol taxes have recently been increased and the ministry had no plan at the moment to increase them again. Meanwhile, the health and sports ministry is conducting public awareness campaigns about liquor in conjunction with alcohol addiction treatment programs, he said.

Tuesday August 2

In the Lower House, lawmaker Dr. Than Win of North Okkalapa Constituency urged the Union government to root out entrenched bribery and corruption in Burma. Parliament approved discussion of his proposal. The previous Union Parliament enacted an anti-graft law in August 2013, and formed an anti-corruption commission in March 2014, but there had been little success in eliminating corruption, according to lawmakers.

In the Upper House, lawmakers seconded a proposal by Sai Wan Hline Kham of Shan State Constituency 3 that urged the Union government to address rampant drug dealing and abuse across northern Shan State, conduct public awareness campaigns and establish rehabilitation centers. Lawmakers argued that drug problems affect all of Burma, not only Shan State. Parliament noted the discussion and approved the proposal.

Wednesday August 3

In the Lower House, lawmaker Khin Hnin Thit of Pantaung Constituency put forward a proposal urging the Union government to take action to reduce crime, describing crime as a hindrance to the rule of law. The lawmaker stated that murder and mugging rates in Rangoon increased between 2014 and 2015. The Lower House approved discussion of the proposal.

Lawmaker Myint Lwin from Pazundaung Constituency asked if the government would allow the public to attend court hearings without restriction and take action against those who restrict attendance. Soe Nyunt, a judge on the Supreme Court, said that except in cases involving rape and sexual assault, hearings were held in open courts and the public could attend. He promised to take action against those who restricted people from attending court hearings.

In the Upper House, lawmaker Kyaw Htwe of Rangoon Division Constituency 8 submitted a proposal asking the Union government to develop a comprehensive plan to address the annual flooding in the delta and coastal areas during rainy season and the drinking water scarcity across Burma in the summer. The Upper House approved discussion of the proposal.

Dubbed the rice bowl of Burma, the delta, which covers Irrawaddy and Rangoon divisions and the northern part of Arakan State, suffers from rainy season floods, which lead to a decline in rice production, Kyaw Htwe said.

Thursday August 4

In the Lower House, lawmaker Dr. Saw Naing from South Okkalapa Constituency asked what measures were being taken to ensure public safety on the Rangoon-Naypyidaw-Mandalay Expressway. Construction Minister Win Khaing replied that his ministry had taken a series of measures including deploying road patrols and erecting warning signs and guard rails at 22 black spots along the highway. The Ministry of Construction is seeking international loans to upgrade the highway, he said.

In the Upper House, the minister for social welfare, relief and resettlement submitted a senior citizen draft law for discussion and the Upper House Bill Committee submitted its report on the draft law.

Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Kyaw Tint Swe put forward a Burma territorial waters draft law for discussion and the Upper House Bill Committee submitted its report on the draft law.

Friday August 5

In the Lower House, lawmakers debated a proposal from Zaw Min Thein of Laymyatnar Constituency, which urged the Union government to strengthen embankments along the Irrawaddy and Ngawun rivers in Irrawaddy Division. Parliament put the proposal on record.

In response to a lawmaker's question about how the government would support war refugees on the border and if there was a plan to mediate between clashing parties, Deputy Border Affairs Minister Maj-Gen Than Htut replied that since fighting broke out in Kachin State in June 2011, a total of 94 relief camps had been providing shelter for almost 40,000 refugees. The National Reconciliation and Peace Center is also taking steps to hold peace talks with both signatories and non-signatories of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement, he said.

In the Upper House, Khin Aung Myint of Mandalay Division Constituency 8 submitted a proposal urging the Union government to design and implement a special plan to eliminate illiteracy among ethnic minorities, enable them to gain a university education and promote ethnic literature. Parliament approved discussion of the proposal.

The post This Week in Parliament (August 1-5) appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

The Irrawaddy Business Roundup (August 6, 2016)

Posted: 05 Aug 2016 06:48 PM PDT

India's Food Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, pictured here in November 2014, said last week that the country is seeking to increase its imports of pulses from Burma to supplement its own food crop. (Photo: Adnan Abidi / Reuters)

India’s Food Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, pictured here in November 2014, said last week that the country is seeking to increase its imports of pulses from Burma to supplement its own food crop. (Photo: Adnan Abidi / Reuters)

US Companies Upbeat on Burma Prospects

Vietnam, Indonesia and Burma are the top destinations for US companies’ expansion plans within Asean, a report states.

The poll of senior executives representing US companies in all ten Asean countries revealed that more than half said the region's markets have become more important for their companies' global bottom line.

A total of 78 percent of the companies expect their profits to rise in 2017, according to the ASEAN Business Outlook Survey, which was released on Aug. 4 by the US Chamber of Commerce and the American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore.

Of US investors in Burma, more than half employed fewer than 50 employees in the country, while 26 percent had between 500 and 2,000 staff.

More than a quarter of the companies were planning to expand and 87 percent expected their workforce to increase this year.

The investors ranked improving the banking and financial system, improving overall governance and efficiency, and investing in health and education as the most pressing internal economic reform challenges facing Burma.

Skills shortages in the labor market were also identified as a challenge by the investors. Among the most difficult skills to find among graduates, the investors listed "analytical [skills] and problem-solving" as well as "communications and cross-collaboration" and technical skills. The chief shortages in technical skills were in management and leadership, accounting, foreign languages and information technology.

Aeon and Creation Group Cooperate

Leading Japanese retail operator AEON is set to enter the Burma market after it concluded a joint venture with the Rangoon-based Creation Myanmar Group of Companies (CMGC).

Aeon Orange Co, the joint venture between Aeon Co. and CMGC, has acquired assets including 14 supermarkets operated by CMGC-affiliate Hypermart Asia Co.

As well as supermarkets, CMGC operates around 130 specialty stores in Burma and a real estate business. It holds licenses to sell more than 20 foreign brands, including Adidas and Mango.

Aeon said in a press release that it believed cooperation with CMGC was indispensable due to the groups' retail business infrastructure and knowledge of the local market. Aeon brings logistics, human resources and IT know-how as well as global sourcing strength and quality control as well as $8.1 million in capital to the deal, according to the release.

AEON Orange plans to open its first supermarket by the end of this year.

Indonesia Plans Event to Boost Bilateral Trade

Indonesia is seeking to boost bilateral trade with Burma, and its embassy in Rangoon along with other organizations will hold a business matching event in the city on August 18.

Industry participants and experts from the insurance, banking, agriculture, real estate, pharmaceuticals, education and many other sectors are due to take part in the event organized by the embassy, the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce (UMFCCI) and the Jakarta branch of the Indonesian Economists Association.  The event will take place at the UMFCCI head office in Dagon Township.

Indonesian foreign investment approved in Burma up to June of this year was US$35.39 million or 0.07 percent of total foreign investment, according to figures from the Directorate of Investment and Companies.

Among Asean countries, Singapore is the top investor in Burma. Investments from Singapore worth $12 billion [23.7 percent of total FDI] were approved up to June this year.

 Myanmar Citizens Bank to sell shares soon on YSX

Myanmar Citizens Bank is preparing to trade soon on the Yangon Stock Exchange [YSX] and has issued a notification to shareholders about the process.

Shareholders have been directed to open a securities account and register electronically with the YSX-approved Myanmar Securities Exchange Center (MSEC) by August 12, in order to be eligible to trade their shares on the opening trading date.

If shareholders miss the date, their shares will be temporarily registered in a special account in line with YSX regulations, according to the announcement on August 5 by MCB in the state-run Myanmar Ahlin newspaper. Those shares may not be traded until the bank is officially listed and the shares are transferred to a securities account.

Shareholders are informed that they can open a securities account any time after August 12 with the MSEC.

MCB said it will notify shareholders through newspapers, its website and the YSX website of the date when trading will open.

The MCB was listed on the YSX in December 2015. Currently First Myanmar Investment (FMI), Myanmar Citizens Bank, Myanmar Thilawa SEZ Holdings Public Limited (MTSH), First Private Bank and Great Hor Kham are listed on the YSX, but only FMI and MTSH have opened sales of their shares.

Panasonic Smartphones to Enter the Market

Booming demand for mobile devices has prompted Panasonic to expand its smartphone business to Burma and Bangladesh before the end of the year.

Panasonic entered the consumer smartphone business around two-and-a-half years ago and has seen "tremendous growth" since, the company's India Business Head (Mobility Division) Panjay Rana was quoted as saying in The Financial Express.

About 80 percent of the company's current smartphone revenues are from India, while other markets include Saudi Arabia and African nations.

On August 1, Panasonic launched a new smartphone in India – the ELUGA Arc 2 – for Rs 12,290 (218,000 kyats). The company sells around eighteen mobile phone devices, of which three support 3G and the rest are 4G-enabled.

India Seeks to Boost Imports of Burma Pulses

A domestic shortfall means that India is seeking to import pulses from Burma and African countries, India's food minister Ram Vilas Paswan has said.

India is the world's leading consumer of pulses, but a demand-supply gap of about 7.6 million tonnes has contributed to high inflation, with double digit annual increases in prices of sugar, vegetables and pulses, according to Reuters.

Chickpea is the most consumed pulse in India, and prices have more than doubled in a year after a series of droughts curbed output, prompting authorities to suspend futures trading in the food grain.

Burma ranks fourth in the world in the production of chickpeas, according to an international crops research group.

The post The Irrawaddy Business Roundup (August 6, 2016) appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Dateline Irrawaddy: ‘The Economic Policy Does Not Provide New Insights’

Posted: 05 Aug 2016 06:38 PM PDT

photoThalun Zaung Htet: Welcome to Dateline Irrawaddy! This week, we'll discuss the national economic policy released by the National League for Democracy [NLD] government. Vice chairman of the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry [UMFCCI] Dr. Maung Maung Lay and The Irrawaddy's Burmese business reporter Ko Thit Nay Moe will join me for the discussion. I'm Irrawaddy Burmese editor Thalun Zaung Htet.

The NLD government released its economic policy following the completion of its 100-day plan. The policy has 12 points and four objectives. There have been criticisms that the policy is too vague and not sufficient to revive the country's economy. Some argue that the policy is good but too difficult to implement. U Maung Maung Lay, you are the vice chairman of the UMFCCI and also a businessman and you were deeply involved in business affairs during the former military regime. What is your view of the NLD's economic policy?

Maung Maung Lay: The original idea of the 100-day plan comes from countries like the UK and the United States. They assume that momentum, popularity and authority [to introduce changes] of a new administration are highest in the first 100 days in office. Usually, those countries adopt their national economic policy during the first 100 days. There is an English saying: "Better late than never." It is better to be late than not adopt an economic policy at all. It has vision and mission and elaborates 12 points. Generally speaking, the policy is an elaboration of the NLD's party manifesto. It includes the NLD's dreams along with necessities for the country. However, it does not provide new insights into the country's economy.

TZH: Ko Thit Nay Moe, what is the response in business circles to the NLD's policy?

Thit Nay Moe: Businessmen say the policy is too broad. Businessmen and economists criticize that the policy does not explain the current economic position nor set a timeframe for particular goals. Some points in the NLD's manifesto are not included in the economic policy, for example, the role of the Central Bank. Economists have pointed out that the policy says nothing about what role the Central Bank will play or how the policy will promote stability—by stabilizing commodity prices or the inflation rate, for example.

TZH:  We found some of the points interesting, including that the NLD would adopt a separate policy to attract foreign investment—which is critically important for development. Many argue that our country's infrastructure is not ready to attract new foreign investment, citing exorbitant land prices and an unreliable electricity supply. Theoretically, the NLD is designing a policy to boost investment. But practically, what should their priorities be?

MML: Attracting foreign investment depends on the politico-economic status of the country. The first necessity is political stability. Every foreign investor wants that. The NLD's economic policy seeks to bring about political stability. Secondly, foreign investors will take internal peace and infrastructure into consideration. The previous governments exercised a so-called open door economic policy. But, investors found that the policy was not clear or coherent. It was a swinging door policy and they did not like it. All investors—whether in manufacturing, service, or industry—make calculations before investing abroad. They invest not because they love a country, but because of profits. If it is unlikely that they can reach targeted profits, they will not invest.

In Asean, member countries compete for foreign investment and solicit such investment competitively. It is important that our economic policy is clear, detailed and allows for a favorable investment environment for potential investors. It is also important to adopt a clear framework. The most important thing is infrastructure mainly, electricity. Potential investors will consider everything before investing—security, accessibility to electricity, if rental prices for land and offices are fair, projected profits, and availability of transportation for exports. The government needs to prepare for this. It needs to cut the red tape and walk the walk in every stage of the process from company registration to customs clearances, tariffs and money transfers. While the government should work toward ending sanctions, it also needs to prioritize and take firm action toward promoting the banking sector in order to smooth financial transactions. Today, the world can be characterized by competition. If we are too slow, no one will want to invest in our country.

TZH: The United States has lifted most of the sanctions against the government now, such as sanctions on government banks. The remaining sanctions are targeted at individuals. Although sanctions have eased, the economy has not picked up as expected. Why?

MML: There are over 100 individuals on the US Specially Designated Nationals List [SDN]. Any financial transactions in US dollars made between Burma and other countries have to go through a US bank, which has to check if people on the SDN list are involved in the transactions. It is a tiring job for the bank, because it has to check not only the listed individuals but also all of the companies related to them. Banks do not want to handle financial transactions related to Burma and this serves as an impediment to the economic performance of our country. Most Burmese businessmen want to do financial transactions in US dollars, because the pound [£] and euro [€] are not stable following the UK's vote to leave the European Union. The difficulty in conducting financial transactions serves as a hindrance to the economic progress of the country.

TZH: Ko Thit Nay Moe, we heard that businessmen are not happy with the NLD's economic approach in the first 100 days or its economic policy. What were their expectations?

TNM: There was a lot of criticism of the NLD's actions regarding the economic sector. Other than the commerce minister stating that his ministry aimed to triple the country's exports within five years, the new government said almost nothing about its plan to rescue the country's economy. The new Myanmar Investment Commission (MIC) was formed recently, which caused delays in scrutinizing and approving investment proposals and hindered businesses. The economic policy was finally released four months after the new government came to power. But then, as I have said before, the policy lacks clarity and fails to sort out priorities or set a timeframe. Businessmen said it was difficult for them to make predictions under the current policy and they would have to wait and see.

TZH: U Maung Maung Lay, do you think the NLD's policy will help revive the economy within the next four or five years?

MML:  It has adopted a framework and defined the objectives. Previously, there was no objective and the policy was like a drifter—reaching nowhere. Now, we have a framework—in other words, a playground. And we have to see how the government will play. Considering the overall situation, their position is good. To realize dreams, the government alone is not responsible. Citizens are obliged to do their fair share. Both the will of the government and the participation of the public are important. I found that the NLD's policy aims to guarantee sustainability and inclusiveness, which is good. But it is important that everyone participates with consciousness.

TZH: Thank you for your contributions!

The post Dateline Irrawaddy: 'The Economic Policy Does Not Provide New Insights' appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Shan Herald Agency for News

Shan Herald Agency for News


BURMA'S PEACE PROCESS AT CROSSROAD: The Northern Alliance Connection

Posted: 06 Aug 2016 06:06 AM PDT

During the last few weeks quite a lot of activities have been seen trying to address the upcoming 21st Century Panglong Agreement (21CPC), also known as Union Peace Conference (UPC), initiated by the State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. They are the Ethnic Armed Organizations' (EAOs) Mai Ja Yang meeting, youth meeting of all ethnicity in Panglong town of Shan State, and the so-called Northern Alliance or United Wa State Army (UWSA) and Mong La or National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) meeting with the government, just to name the three outstanding gatherings.

While the first two meetings were well covered, due to the high profile and public interest, the Northern Alliance embracing the government's overtures were vaguely covered and thus needs a more in-depth study to be able to have a more informed understanding, on the importance of this happening.

It is all the more becoming increasingly interesting, as Khin Zaw Oo, secretary of the Peace Commission, quite recently said that the most controversial all-inclusiveness issue, involving the so far excluded 3 EAOs would be allowed to participate in the peace process, which has been a stumbling block for the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) to sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), last year in October.

But let us look at a bit more on this so-called Northern Alliance that is being considered as Chinese proxy and the military's main targeted enemy; and why this change of heart in the course of finding a solution to the country's ethnic conflict.

·         Two categories of EAOs

Before we talk about the so-called Northern Alliance, we might need to go a bit into how this formation has started and come about.

Generally speaking, according to the contemporary political landscape, the EAOs could be divided into signatory and non-signatory EAOs.

The signatories are All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF), Arakan Liberation Party/Arakan Liberation Army (ALP/ALA), Chin National Front (CNF), Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), Karen National Liberation Army-Peace Council (KNLA-PC), Karen National Union (KNU), Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO)and Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army-South (RCSS/SSA-S).

But the non-signatory EAOs could again be divided into 9 UNFC members and the so-called Northern Alliance, involving the UWSA, Kokang or Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Mong La or NDAA. It is not clear if the Palaung State Liberation Front/Ta'ang National Liberation Army (PSLF/TNLA) and United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) are officially part of the Northern Alliance, even though it is evident that the MNDAA and the said two have formed a three party military alliance, actively combating the government forces, starting with the outbreak of the Kokang conflict last year. It is also to be noted that the ULA/AA is not part of the UNFC, whereas the MNDAA and PSLF/TNLA are members.

During the Mai Ja Yang meeting from 26 to 30 July, the Arakan groups were represented with three parties, namely: ULA/AA, Arakan National Council/Arakan Army (ANC/AA) and ALP/ALA. Only the ANC/AA is a member of UNFC.

The UNFC has 9 members which originally was said to be 10. They are:

1.    Kachin Independence Organization (KIO)
2.    New Mon State Party (NMSP)
3.    Shan State Army-North (SSPP /SSA)
4.    Karen National Union (KNU)
5.    Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP)
6.    Chin National Front (CNF)
5 new members:
1.    Lahu Democratic Union (LDU)
2.    Arakan National Council (ANC)
3.    Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO)
4.    Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) also known as Palaung State Liberation Front (PSLF)
5.    Wa National Organization (WNO)
The KNU has suspended its membership in the UNFC, without actually resigning, prior to the signing of NCA about a year ago, while the CNF and PNLO were dismissed by the UNFC, due to the fact that they had not follow the majority decision not to sign the NCA, for lack of all-inclusiveness. But on the eve of the signatory and non-signatory EAOs reconciliation effort to act as one party in the political bargaining process, the UNFC spokesman's official count of nine members remains unclear.
Apart from the UNFC, another armed group outside all the other folds is National Socialist Council of Nagaland -Khaplan (NSCN-K), which is struggling to form an independent state by carving territories out from both India and Burma.
·         The Northern Alliance
According to renowned researcher and journalist Bertil Lintner, in one of his his piece  he wrote: "On 3 November 1994, their leader, Chao Ngo Lai, summoned a meeting of the UWSA and seven other groups that had also made peace with Rangoon, and an umbrella organization called Peace and Democratic Front (PDF) was formed. It consisted of four former Communist Party Burma (CPB) groups as well as a number of ethnic rebel armies that had made peace with Rangoon after the lucrative deal the ex-communists had struck with the state. (Source: Ethnicity in Asia, By Colin Mackerras; Section 10, Myanmar/Burma, By Bertil Lintner, Edited 2003, Published by RoutledgeCurzon)
According to Paul Keenan, in his recent EBO Background Paper titled "The UWSA and the Future", he wrote: "In March 2009, the Myanmar Peace and Democracy Front (MPDF), was reportedly formed. The four-group military alliance comprised the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the MNDAA, NDAA, and the KIO."

In his footnote, he said he was unable to confirm the possible participation of the SSPP in the said front. This writer has also tried in vain to clarify the case.

However, Tom Kramer, a keen observer and Burma watcher, writer said that the front consists of the UWSA, MNDAA, NDAA, New Democratic Army -Kachin (NDA-K) and SSA North.

As mentioned, the inclusion of SSPP/SSA North still could not be confirmed, while the NDA-K in 2009  transformed itself into government's Border Guard Force (BGF).

Presently, the Northern Alliance or PDF could be construed as a combination of all ex-communist MNDAA, UWSA and NDAA and perhaps including the TNLA and ULA/AA.

From 26-28 March 2016, the United Wa State Party/United Wa State Army (UWSP/UWSA) hosted an Ethnic Armed Organizations Leaders' Summit at its headquarters in Panghsang, Wa Special Region. Present at the meeting were representatives from the Kachin Independence Organisation/Kachin Independence Army (KIO/KIA), SSPP/SSA,  PSLF/TNLA, the Kachin based  ULA/AA and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA).

But whether the above mentioned meeting could be taken as the formation of a Northern Alliance is also not clear, but they did publicized a joint-resolution after the meeting to stop the armed conflict in Kachin and northern Shan States, either through persuasion or if needed be, by force.

Whatever the case, it is fair to conclude that the core members of the group includes the UWSA, MNDAA and NDAA.

·         UWSA, MNDAA meeting with the government

On 4 August, Khin Zaw Oo, government peace negotiator from the Peace Commission said the three ethnic armed groups excluded from the peace process will no longer be required to surrender, prior to joining the talks, a softening of the military's tone toward the  rebels.

He stressed that the military has relaxed that demand after the groups have shown "they really wanted peace", Khin Zaw Oo, a member of the government Peace Commission, according to Reuters in an interview.

"Previously, we made the exact demand that they lay down their arms if they wanted to get involved in the peace process - they have found that difficult to accept," said the retired lieutenant general, who is due to meet the armed groups soon.

Instead, he added, the army now wants the rebels to issue a statement "showing their political willingness to abandon their weapons".

During the UWSA and NDAA visit, in response to the government's overtures between 29 July to 1 August, Suu Kyi explained  the peace activities, including the Panglong conference to the two visiting parties and they in turn explained their positions and their work for peace and cooperation, within their special regions.

On 30 July and 1 August, UWSA and NDAA met separately with the National Reconciliation Peace Center (NRPC), in Naypyitaw and Yangon (Rangoon) respectively to discuss details on how the two could participate in the peace process.

The outcomes were in addition to the two's pledges not to secede from the union and full support of the government's all-inclusiveness position, they promised to find ways to participate in the 21CPC or UPC. Although the NDAA could promise that it would participate in the amendment and fine-tuning of the Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD), due to its Chairman Sai Luen's presence and able to make the decision immediately, the UWSA still needed to inform the central committee members and leaders back at home, as Pao Yu Yi, Deputy-Secretary General of the UWSA has no authority to make decision.

"Besides, they also proposed a resource sharing issue and expressed their views that the
country's resources should be equitably shared among all ethnic peoples for the development all regions and the taxation be managed systematically," said U Khin Zaw Oo, when meeting the NDAA in Yangon.

Reportedly, the two sides also discussed land issues, environmental conservation, human rights and freedom of belief.

·         Chinese envoy and charm offensive

During the Mai Ja Yang EAOs' leadership summit meeting,  held from July 26-30, China's Special Envoy on Asian Affairs Sun Guoxiang on the opening day addressed the audience, stating that China backed "all the forces that support internal peace in Burma."
Sun Guoxiang also announced the US$3 million donation China had rendered to the Joint Monitoring Committee, a body overseeing the commitments of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement reached between the previous government and  8 EAOs in October last year.
In response to the query of  a news media on China's stance to the issue of "all-inclusiveness", he left no doubt that it is all for it.
"We encourage all the armed ethnic organisations to attend the 21st-century Panglong Conference for the internal peace of Myanmar. We recognise that there are diverse and different perspectives on peace by different parties. We hope that all sides cooperate for the achievement of peace in Myanmar," said Sun Guoxiang, special envoy for Asian Affairs at the foreign affairs ministry in China.
Prior to the Mai Ja Yang EAOs' meeting, the VOA analysis of 30 June, on Burma-China relationship, pin-pointed the calculated policy shift of China in a variety of ways that propelled its charm offensive undertakings.
·         On 4 June,  Chinese Ambassador Hong Liang visited Kachin State to lobby for the restarting of stalled Myitsone Dam.
·         On 8 June, China-Myanmar Swe Myo Pauk Phaw Friendship Foundation was formed.
·         On 11 June, China-Myanmar motor-caravan scheduled journey was announced to promote friendship between the two nations, which would take place the following October.
·         On 18 June, Union Minister U Ohn Win, who was on his way to attend energy related workshop in China, was briefed by a Chinese diplomat that China would help build up intensified human resources development, according to Xinhua news of 25 June.
The forthcoming October motor-caravan to promote friendship was planned to include free medical treatment, donation to poor areas, building of schools, helping, supporting monastery and orphanage schools. Sports activities like boxing, football, volleyball, including friendship concert and artistic painting shows are said to be also on agenda.
·         Military's change of heart
In a surprise move from its prior, exclusion stance for the 3 excluded EAOs, the military now said that it would accept them to participate in the peace process, without having to surrender their arms.
According to Reuters, on 4 August, Khin Zaw Oo, a member of the government's Peace Commission said the army has relaxed the necessity to surrender their arms' demand, after the groups have shown "they really wanted peace".

"Previously, we made the exact demand that they lay down their arms if they wanted to get involved in the peace process - they have found that difficult to accept," said the retired lieutenant general, who is due to meet the armed groups soon.

Instead, he added, the army now wants the rebels to issue a statement "showing their political willingness to abandon their weapons".

Responding to the military's new initiative, Tar Aik Kyaw spokesperson for the TNLA said: "We are ready to cooperate if the Tatmadaw's opinion is for all-inclusiveness in the peace process without having to surrender arms. I think, the remaining obstacles to the peace process could become easier (to resolve)".

He further stressed that although the armed struggle is not the right path, it is impossible that they have to surrender their arms prior to the guaranteed political settlement of rights to self-determination and equality.

·         Analysis

To sum up whole situation, the UWSA and NDAA were not pushing hard, statehood for the former within the union and upgraded self-administrative zone for the latter; but praised the NLD's all-inclusiveness position and vowed to support the 21CPC or UPC. Besides, both made a profound promise that they won't secede from Burma.

This could be viewed as toning down their former demands, or putting them behind as a back-burner for the time being, and settling in to accommodate the big brother's priority, policy line of ending the civil war to create a market place that all could benefit.

Again, the promise of non-secession, which the Bamar political class and the military very much like to hear might have loosen the animosity against the two groups,considered to be the Chinese proxies. But the real point is, it is just a lip-service that really doesn't cost anything, as the two won't benefit, in actual term, by pushing for secession. For China, unlike Russia's Putin isn't interested or looking to carve out territories from a neighbouring country like Burma, but sees it as its market place and as well instrumental in trying to still its energy hunger, apart from Burma's support to its "one China policy" and "one belt one road" economic scheme that goes beyond Burma, with regional and global ambition.

Thus, the promise of non-secession works both ways. One is a welcome way out for the government, especially the military, to justify its narrow nationalism rhetoric pointing fingers at the two groups as foreign puppets that have been trying to undermine national integrity and unity is now being averted; and the other, to go along with the push of China's all-inclusiveness, as it is the only sane way out of the debacle that it has created. Besides, China insistence on neutrality and refuses to comply with Burma's demand to pressure its adversaries along the border might have played an important decision-making role.

Other than that, China's cooperation and participation in Mai Ja Yang EAOs' meeting and its charm offensives are testimonies that it is for the peaceful solution and would do everything, including pressuring its so-called proxies along the border, to achieve that goal for a "win-win" outcome. And key to this is all-inclusiveness, first and foremost.

For now, all we could do is to follow on how the inclusion of the three excluded EAOs would be taken in, amendments of framework for political dialogue by all parties, government, military, EAOs and political parties;  and how the constitutional crisis would be resolved through a federal democratic setting, at the forthcoming UPC, that is able to embrace the aspirations of all ethnic groups, Bamar included.


All in all, this positive turn of events might bring us a step closer to the realization of peaceful political settlement, provided all the stakeholders could make use of the opportunity that comes their way in a wise and pragmatic sense. 

An Open letter to Daw Aung San Dsuu Ki

Posted: 06 Aug 2016 05:58 AM PDT

Ref: the 1947 Panglong Agreement- How can I forget?

Dear Daw Aungsan Suu Kyi,

I was at Panglong in February 1947 with my parents when the Panglong Agreement was signed between Bogyoke Aung San, representing the Bamar and the leaders of the Shan, Kacin and Chin. I was a young school girl , but I remember the whole atmosphere after the agreement was signed , jubilant and joyous. At first the Shan and other ethnic Leaders were sceptical about becoming part of the Federal Union of Burma, but they were won over by Bogyoke Aungsan's open-ness and sincerity and accepted that the formation of the Union was for the common good and benefit of both the Bamar Heartland and other ethnic States. Through mutual trust and respect both sides agreed that all members of the Union should enjoy equal status and opportunities, and each state the rights of internal autonomy, self-determination and the right to secede.

The Panglong Accord is unlike the cease-fire agreement, signed and broken, and repeated again and again; it was meant to be permanent and honoured. The make and break of the Federal Union of Burma depends on whether the original 1947 Agreement is honoured or not. It is the only tie that binds the Bamar Heartland and other ethnic States. All the ethnic states have never wanted to break up the Union; even after all these years of unfair treatment by the Bamar Military/politicians they are without exception, still willing to be part of the Union.

The 1947 Panglong Agreement, is the pillar of Honour, Truth, Justice and Freedom and
is embedded in the Heart and Soul of every Shan and other ethnic nationalities. For them it cannot be replaced, there is only one 1947 Agreement. An attempt to destroy the 1947 Panglong Agreement by deception or force will have an unsettling and unstable effect on the whole of Burma, as seen during the last fifty or more years. It could go on for many more generations, even after we are dead and gone.

The Clauses in the Panglong Agreement was to be recorded in the 1948 Constitution, which was to be drafted by Bogyoke Aungsan and his Executive Committee Members. During a drafting session Bogyoke Aungsan and his colleagues were assassinated.

I hope you, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, will honour your father's promises and signature, and please do not let his values, and his and the death of his colleagues, the sufferings and loss of countless lives be all in vain. Please try to make something good come out of the "1947 Panglong Agreement".

Sincerely yours,

Sao Noan Oo