The Irrawaddy Magazine |
- Earthquake Committee: A Rangoon Quake Would Be ‘Devastating’
- Burma Army Obstructs Media Access in Northern Arakan State
- Government to Accelerate Political Dialogue
- Govt to Crack Down on Begging Gangs
- The Specter of Sectarian Violence Looms Large in Arakan State
- 72-Year-Old Man Shot by Burma Army in Kachin State
| Earthquake Committee: A Rangoon Quake Would Be ‘Devastating’ Posted: 21 Oct 2016 08:23 AM PDT The Myanmar Earthquake Committee was founded in 1999 and conducts seismological research on active fault lines and past earthquakes in Burma. Until significant earthquakes hit the country in the last few years, including a 6.8-magnitude quake in Bagan in August this year, the public had not recognized the importance of the committee and its research. Led by seven seismologic academics and researchers, the committee has produced seismic hazard maps for Burma and, most recently, for the populous former capital Rangoon. Burma's central areas are prone to seismic activity mainly because of the Sagaing Fault—a 1,200 km (750-mile) fault line that transects the country from north to south, passing through major cities before dipping into the Gulf of Martaban. Aside from Bagan this year, historical records show that nowhere along the line has experienced a major tremor since 1930 when a 7.3-magnitude earthquake hit Pegu (Bago), a city 80 km (50 miles) from Rangoon. The quake claimed more than 500 lives. According to geological research, a powerful quake tends to strike on the fault line every 80 to 110 years. The Irrawaddy sat down with one of the committee's three secretaries, U Thura Aung, to talk about Rangoon and the risks it faces from a powerful earth tremor. Could you tell us what research the committee has conducted over the past years? The first piece of research we did was the Seismic Zone Map of Myanmar. A draft version was issued in 2003 and the revised version was released in 2005. When the Tsunami hit in 2004, we did field research in the country's coastal areas. From 2006-07, we have been consistently doing research in both paleoseismology (past earthquakes) and active faults, especially the Sagaing Fault. Please tell us about research that the committee has done on Rangoon. After releasing the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) Map of Myanmar in 2012, we co-conducted a hazard assessment for Rangoon with UN-Habitat and which was finished in 2015. The hazard map was developed based on a four-step methodology of characterizing potential hazards. Unlike our 2012 analysis, we also included both soil density and rock level while investigating the city's ground during the analysis. We studied how dense the soil of each area is. The next bit of research we are going to conduct in the near future is a risk assessment of Rangoon. We will especially be assessing buildings in the city. We will conduct a pilot project of at least two townships first and collect data on the strength of the buildings there. What we are going to do with this research is to create a model that will guide us how to respond when there is a risk. We need to collect a lot of data to prepare this model so it will take at least two years. After, we need to analyze and process this data and create a proper mode appropriate to this country. Can you tell us about Rangoon's soil? Most of the Eastern townships of Rangoon and the ones close to the Hlaing River have soft soil. Geologically, the areas along the river were formed from silt and were built on after many years, that's why they have soft soil. Some parts of Kyimyindaing Township and downtown townships like Latha and Pabedan also have soft soil. North and South Okkalapa and East Dagon townships were originally farmland and also have soft soil. The distance from the ground level to rock in these areas is also quite large and soft soil areas have a high risk during seismic activity. The area around Shwedagon Pagoda is composed of pretty hard rock. Bahan Township and some parts of Sanchaung and Mingaladon townships have the same situation and will be relatively resistant to seismic waves. Are Rangoon residents aware of the risks? This analysis was only finished in December 2015 and is yet to launch, so very few people know about the situation and this research. If there's a tremor in Rangoon, what is the most important emergency response? For an earthquake, the most important emergency response is to create a place where many people can assemble or gather. Individuals need to be aware of how we should protect ourselves. After that, it is essential that people go to a safe temporary shelter or a building which is not very far from their home. Does Rangoon have such temporary shelters or areas of assembly? As far as I know, there isn't such a plan provided for the public to gather when there is a fire, flood or storm in the whole of Rangoon. It is not enough to create a space where a crowd can gather and shelter, the structure has to be earthquake resistant and there should be food and medical supplies. In many countries, such shelters are not used for disaster purposes only. It can be used in other ways in day-to-day use, for example a church. Sometimes, sports stadiums become makeshift shelters during emergency situations. Most importantly, these buildings should be built to be earthquake resistant. If not, everyone using the shelter will be at risk. What kinds of buildings are at risk from earthquakes? Generally, buildings that are not built according to national building codes are at risk. But we can't judge this by our eyes. Buildings of wooden frames and bricks [constructed through brick nogging] are the most at risk of collapsing due to earthquake tremors. This type of building is very common. People think the bricks are secured to the wooden frame but actually they are not so they can fall down very easily when an earthquake hits. If reinforced concrete buildings, in which steel bars are embedded in the concrete, are built according to regulatory standards we can say they are relatively resistant. Wooden houses and bamboo houses have the least possibility to kill people when there is an earthquake. Different sized apartment buildings also have different resistance to quakes. Tall and thin high-rise buildings have less balance than square-shaped high rises and resistance to strong earthquake waves. Do you have any advice to Rangoon's public? The devastation caused from a quake in Rangoon is unimaginable. With the current urban development and population growth, Rangoon has a high possibility of damage and casualties in the event of an earthquake. It is a result of bad management, a lack of public awareness about disasters, and the fact that many of the buildings have not been engineered to withstand a quake. I want to alert every individual to always prepare an emergency kit and food in case of an unexpected seismic disaster. Storms can be forecasted; floods give you time to prepare. The only disaster that doesn't give preparation time is an earthquake. You can't rely on the government to save you while the earth shakes, because it happens in seconds. You have to prepare for yourself. Earthquakes can't be forecasted either naturally or technologically. Things that exist above the ground can be studied but seismic waves happen under the ground. There are limitations to how much we can study about earthquakes—it's still impossible to forecast an earthquake. The post Earthquake Committee: A Rangoon Quake Would Be 'Devastating' appeared first on The Irrawaddy. |
| Burma Army Obstructs Media Access in Northern Arakan State Posted: 21 Oct 2016 08:05 AM PDT While attempting to cover the manhunt and security clampdown in northern Arakan State, independent journalists have faced movement restrictions imposed unilaterally by the Burma Army, following attacks by purported Islamic militants on border guard posts on Oct. 9. With most of the estimated 250 attackers still on the run, the situation on the ground as the police and Burma Army conduct joint operations in the Muslim-majority villages of Maungdaw Township has been difficult to assess, given continued blocks on media access—justified on the grounds of safety—which were seen not to apply to local civilians. On Monday, reporters and photographers from The Irrawaddy, Myanmar Times, 7 Day Daily, The Voice, Democratic Voice of Burma, Kumudra and Narinjara were stopped from traveling further north of the Kyikanpyin Border Guard Police headquarters on to the site of current security operations.  The journalists traveled to Kyikanpyin—where five police officers were killed and 51 firearms seized on Oct. 9—with Border Guard Police officers, and were permitted to spend 20 minutes documenting the scene, with the broken doorways and dried pools of blood. They were discovered by Burma Army soldiers, who were surprised to see members of the media present. As the journalists were about to leave, an army officer demanded that they stay until he conferred with a senior officer. He then ordered the journalists to delete their photographs, which they refused to do, before driving off. The journalists, attempting to drive further north, were stopped at a nearby army checkpoint. The captain present also ordered that they delete any photographs taken so far; again they refused. The journalists were not allowed to pass, for their own "safety," in line with higher-level army orders issued on Sunday. "Fighting could break out at any time," said the captain, who refused to give his name or that of his senior officer. The journalists protested that they had received the permission of the Home Ministry to travel to areas subject to security operations, and the argument lasted over two hours. The captain tried to take down their names, but the journalists refused to give them. Meanwhile, locals were seen traveling freely past the checkpoint. The journalists turned back. These restrictions were a new development: a reporter and photographer from 7 Day Daily, and a photographer from The Voice, were able to access villages further north in Maungdaw Township on Friday of last week, Oct. 14, where, that evening, they saw the smoldering ruins of some 20 burned-down houses in Wonbait village along the highway, as well as smoke rising from two other nearby villages, the Voice photographer told The Irrawaddy. There are sharply conflicting reports over who was responsible for burning the houses. A Muslim community leader in Maungdaw town, Hla Maung, provided The Irrawaddy with what he claimed were lists of houses burned down by the Burma Army in Muslim villages, where the majority self-identity as Rohingya. He claimed that markets and mosques had also been burned down, and that Rohingya civilians had been killed.  President's Office spokesman U Zaw Htay firmly denied that the Burma Army was burning down houses. Rather, he claimed that the Ministry of Information had photographs—which have not been seen by The Irrawaddy—showing Burma Army soldiers putting out fires in villages that were started by others. U Zaw Htay said that doctored photos purporting to show Burma Army soldiers setting fire to houses were being circulated on social media, and should be dismissed as fake. Continued restrictions to media access in northern Arakan State, such as experienced by The Irrawaddy, made it difficult to independently verify these competing claims. Meanwhile, Buddhist Arakanese civilians continue to flee rural areas of Maungdaw Township, finding shelter in Maungdaw town, in neighboring Buthidaung Township, and in the state capital Sittwe further south. The government has been providing food relief, and facilitating some evacuations.  This aid has not been extended to Muslim Rohingya, who form some 90 percent of the population in Maungdaw and Buthidaung townships, and according to Hla Maung, have reportedly also been fleeing their homes. Muslims from rural areas have been restricted from entering Maungdaw town, where fleeing Buddhist Arakanese have found shelter in Buddhist monasteries. Muslim community leader Hla Maung told The Irrawaddy that Rohingya communities were hiding in jungle areas, fearful of being caught up in the security operations. "Our displaced people have not gotten any help from the government," he said. "They also have problems finding food." The post Burma Army Obstructs Media Access in Northern Arakan State appeared first on The Irrawaddy. |
| Government to Accelerate Political Dialogue Posted: 21 Oct 2016 06:10 AM PDT RANGOON — Amid fighting on the ground in Kachin and Shan states, the Burmese government's peace negotiation body is planning to hold a national-level political dialogue with or without all ethnic armed organizations in November. According to regulations within the nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA), only the eight ethnic armed organizations who are signatories, alongside the Burma Army, are eligible to attend the political dialogue. Those who didn’t sign the NCA, including the seven-member United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), are not qualified to participate. Hla Maung Shwe, a spokesperson for the National Reconciliation and Peace Center (NRPC), said that the Burmese government will move forward with the plan, and hinted that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi could be open to including UNFC members. "The State Counselor even said that we were late in holding the [peace] conference," Hla Maung Shwe said, in reference to the 21st century Panglong event held at the end of August. "While opening one door, we will continue what we need to do." During meetings in Rangoon this week, the Delegation for Political Negotiation (DPN), a committee that represents the UNFC, agreed to hold another meeting with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi early November. If they reach an agreement with the State Counselor, it has been speculated that the UNFC would sign the NCA and join the national-level political dialogue. Representatives of the National Reconciliation and Peace Center (NRPC) and leaders of ethnic armed groups—both signatories and non-signatories to the 2015 nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA)—held meetings this week in Rangoon where they reviewed the political framework in preparation for the dialogue to be held in all of the country's seven states and seven divisions in late November. Dates for the political dialogue will be announced by State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi—who also serves as chairperson of the Union Peace and Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC)—on October 28, when a meeting with government peace negotiators is planned in Naypyidaw. Khun Okkar, an advisor for the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO), said, "It is neither accelerating nor slowing. We are going according to the NCA process. In the NCA, we are supposed to hold national-level political dialogue." "We can’t take time to reach an agreement to build a federal union. There will be conflicts. It is not possible to wait until the end of the conflict to build a federal nation. We accept that there are conflicts, but, we can’t wait. So we move in accordance with the plan," said Khun Okkar. He added that it is expected that conflicts will be ongoing during a political transition, and that he feels the political dialogue will lead the country toward an official end to the civil war. Leading members of the UNFC, such as the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) and the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) pointed that they are not ready to sign the NCA as there is ongoing fighting in Kachin and Shan states, according to sources at the recent meeting. On the one year anniversary of the NCA signing on October 15, Burma Army chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing said that ethnic armed organizations who did not sign the agreement should not be able to participate in the national-level political dialogue, as it would be against the NCA regulations. If the UNFC again opts out of signing the NCA, only eight NCA signatories including Karen National Union (KNU) and Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) will be eligible to participate in the political dialogue. According to the observers and sources at the meeting, the UNFC attempted to access the political dialogue without signing the NCA, but failed. The government peace delegation told them that they could participate in the political dialogue only after they sign the NCA. The post Government to Accelerate Political Dialogue appeared first on The Irrawaddy. |
| Govt to Crack Down on Begging Gangs Posted: 21 Oct 2016 06:04 AM PDT RANGOON— The government has announced a crackdown on gangs that profit from children and the elderly begging on the streets of Rangoon and Mandalay. An action plan to arrest and charge those forcing vulnerable people to beg was drafted last month according to U Soe Kyi, spokesperson of the Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement. He said that the ministry will first implement the plan in six areas in two of Burma's biggest cities, Rangoon and Mandalay, where the practice takes place. Yangon Central Railway Station, Pansodan Township, Dala Township, Danyingone market, Aung Mingalar Highway bus station and Thiri Mingalar market in Rangoon are on the ministry's list. In Mandalay, Chanmyathazi, Pyigyitagon, Chanayethazan, Maha Aung Myay, Aungmyaythazan and Amarapura townships have been selected. U Soe Kyi said mobile teams of staff from the ministry, the city authorities, the police and medical staff will be formed in each area. "We are now starting an education program about forced begging," he said. "After that, in collaboration with ward administrators of the selected areas and the mobile teams, we will expose the gangs and take action," he added. He said that they will also help to reunite families, provide healthcare, provide schooling and vocational training for homeless children, and organize accommodation for the elderly. Daw Win Pa Pa Than is a protection manager at World Vision Myanmar—a non-governmental organization working for child protection—and said vulnerable children and poor families are exploited by being made to work on the streets. "We have seen people begging while carrying sleeping children the whole day," she said, "it is widely assumed of they are using sleeping pills to drug the children." "There are also instances of parents who force their children to ask money from passers-by while they wait in another place." "I'm happy to hear the government's plan to take action against those who use vulnerable children for profit," she added. Daw Win Pa Pa Than said that rule of law and cooperation from communities will be important in the plan as residents will need to be alert and cooperate with the authorities to expose those who exploit children and old people. "It will be hard to trace the ringleaders by asking parents and children as they are afraid of the gangs. Authorities will need to monitor the groups carefully," advised Daw Win Pa Pa Than. U Soe Kyi from the Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement, admitted that it would be difficult to eradicate begging completely but that they aim to reduce the numbers. "This this initial plan will take immediate action against the gangs," he added. Under Section 66(c) of Burma's 1993 Child Law, sentences of two years in prison or a fine of 10,000 kyats can be handed to anyone who: employs a child to beg for their personal benefit; fails to prevent a child under their guardianship from begging; makes use of a child in any manner in his livelihood of begging. The post Govt to Crack Down on Begging Gangs appeared first on The Irrawaddy. |
| The Specter of Sectarian Violence Looms Large in Arakan State Posted: 21 Oct 2016 05:56 AM PDT Videos of fundamentalist Muslims appearing to urge Rohingya and other Muslims in Arakan State to become jihadists and to "save" their family and home have recently gone viral. Unsurprisingly, emotions ranging from fear to anger have flared across Burma, especially within the government and among intelligence agencies. Indeed, many see these tensions as thick with the potential to turn Arakan State into a theater of sectarian violence once more. Something surely needs to be done, and quickly. But the question we ought to be asking is this: are the right steps being taken to stem current hostilities? Since fresh violence erupted in northern Arakan State on Oct. 9, creating a tinderbox of anxieties, the answer seems to be "no." State security's reactions have been knee-jerk at best, and lacking any sort of foresight. For instance, Police Chief Maj-Gen Zaw Win has merely stated that security measures along the 271-kilometer riverine and land border with Bangladesh are weak. His assurances of deploying forces and using helicopters would likely add little to the Burma Army's security capabilities. We don't have to look far to see how these situations can play out. The social unrest, communal strikes, and cross-border "terrorism" in neighboring India—particularly in the country's northeastern states and in the Kashmir region—are sterling examples of the complexities and long-simmering challenges of containing such issues. States such as Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and several others have struggled with large inflows of migrants from nearby Bangladesh: smoldering resentment of Bangladeshi migrants metastasized to communal unrest before eventually transforming into insurgency and violence hinged on fundamentalism. The Sept. 18 attack by Pakistan-based "terror" groups on an Indian army camp—which occurred near the de facto border and military Line of Control in the Uri area near Kashmir—killed 18 Indian army soldiers, and it perhaps bears the most resemblance to what happened at border guard outposts in northern Arakan State's Maungdaw and Rathedaung Townships. If the Uri attack, which was carried out with immaculate precision, is anything to go by, then it is anyone's guess as to how the story might unfold if the attackers in northern Arakan State have grander plans in mind. While the videos showing the armed men calling for jihad in Burma have not been traced to a specific terrorist organization, there is the possibility that these groups were influenced by or have links to Jaish-e-Mohammed, a jihadist group active in Kashmir that allegedly masterminded the Uri attack, or even to larger groups such as the Islamic State. The attack on police in Maungdaw Township's Pyaungpit Village by hundreds of people wielding pistols and swords is certainly not how a terrorist group would choose to operate. Moreover, the violence in the nearby village of Taung Paing Nyar, where the dead bodies of seven men who had been killed with rudimentary weapons were found, is perhaps also a dark indication of the communal animosities that continue to pervade areas of Arakan State. These incidents have given rise to a different form of apprehension among residents of Sittwe, the capital of Arakan State, and other cities. "We fear a repeat of 2012"—when communal strife between local Buddhist Arakanese and Muslim Rohingya came to a head—"but we also feel that it'd be more devastating [if violence continued] with terror groups trying to get a foothold here," is how Tin Aung, a resident of Sittwe, reacted when asked to reflect on the current situation. On the other hand, one of the viral videos shows a cleric asserting that Burma's new government has made promises to protect Muslims but that the state's so far empty words have forced Muslims to ensure their own safety—"to pick up the gun and save [themselves]." So would a military-led offensive against an unidentified "terrorist" group work? Let's not forget that Arakan State is already heavily militarized, a reality felt most acutely by residents in the northern part of the state. Deploying more armed forces there would likely only make an already precarious situation even worse. While the recent incidents in Maungdaw and Rathedaung Townships and the curfew that has followed share similarities to what has been happening along India's northern borders, government actions—or inactions—don't have to be the same. Following the Uri terror attack India responded with a surgical strike across the Line of Control on Sept. 29. These strikes have evoked mixed responses. Critics in India have questioned whether it would further escalate the conflict in Kashmir, but there's been strong support from Indian civil society, and foreign governments have defended India's position on stemming cross-border terrorism. But violence in Kashmir is multifarious, and Indian efforts to fight terror across its borders are doing everything possible to turn the Kashmir movement into a jihad. Burma could take a cautionary lesson from India in deciding what's good for Arakan State. There's a need to de-escalate conflict in northern Arakan. Securing the borders is one possible way, the other surely is to take the people—that includes the Rohingya and other Muslims—into confidence and provide them with a sense of security. This perhaps is a better way forward than allowing the armed forces to stoke the embers. For now, perhaps we ought to be content with what U Kyaw Tin, deputy minister of foreign affairs, recently said: that an investigation is underway to see if the assailants had links to Bangladesh and that, if necessary, the Bangladeshi ambassador to Burma would be summoned. And he reiterated State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's suggestion: respond within the law. Burma's State Counselor is perhaps confident that the advisory committee she has instituted under former UN Secretary-General Kofi Anan will get to the crux of the conflict in Arakan State and ultimately discover a lasting solution. That will be easier said than done. But looking ahead, we should give her the benefit of the doubt, and distill key lessons from Kashmir and other areas in the region as Burma seeks to bring peace to Arakan State once and for all. Bidhayak Das is a political analyst and an independent journalist. His research focuses on peace and conflict. The views expressed above are his. He can be reached at bidhayak.d@gmail.com. The post The Specter of Sectarian Violence Looms Large in Arakan State appeared first on The Irrawaddy. |
| 72-Year-Old Man Shot by Burma Army in Kachin State Posted: 21 Oct 2016 01:46 AM PDT A 72-year-old man is in hospital after being hit by two bullets in gunfire from a military camp in Kachin State's Waingmaw Township on Wednesday afternoon. U Hlkawng Bawk was at his home in Shwe Nyaung Bin village when gunfire from locally-based Burma Army Light Infantry Battalion 321grazed his head and throat. Soldiers rushed the man to the military hospital of Northern Command in Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin State. "We heard gunshots and were hiding in the house," Ma Seng Hkawng, granddaughter of the victim, told The Irrawaddy. "There was continuous gunfire and bullets whistled past his head. We don't know the reason for the gunfire." She said that her grandfather had now gained consciousness and that no gunshots were heard on Thursday. Despite the shooting, there were no clashes reported near Shwe Nyaung Bin village on Wednesday, U San Aung from the Kachin Peace Talk Creation Group told The Irrawaddy. "I still don't know the details yet. He is at the military hospital," said U San Aung. The Irrawaddy were unable to reach the Burma Army press officer for comment. Waingmaw Township police station confirmed the case. "Yes, it is right that an old man was shot, he is now at the 300-bed military hospital in Myitkyina," the police officer told The Irrawaddy. But the police officer refused to comment on the reason behind the shooting. The post 72-Year-Old Man Shot by Burma Army in Kachin State appeared first on The Irrawaddy. |
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