Friday, February 13, 2015

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine


Pass Amendments and We’ll Go Home, Protesting Students Say

Posted: 13 Feb 2015 06:33 AM PST

student protests

Student demonstrators march to Prome after crossing into Pegu Division on Monday. (Photo: Kaung Myat Min / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — A student protest group in the midst of a march from Mandalay to Rangoon released a statement on Friday saying they would continue their demonstration until Parliament passes an amended National Education Law in line with their demands.

The group began its marched from Mandalay on Jan. 20 and arrived to Paungde Township in Pegu Division on Friday, having completed nearly two-thirds of the 400-mile journey.

"If Parliament's decision is not satisfactory, we will march in protest to Rangoon, and if it is satisfactory, we will walk to Rangoon in a show of victory," read the students' statement.

Nanda Sit Aung, a member of the committee spearheading the protest, told The Irrawaddy that they had reached agreement with a handful of other protest movements across the country, with all the student groups resolving to continue their respective marches to Rangoon. The other groups will release separate statements declaring their intentions, said Nanda Sit Aung of the Action Committee for Democratic Education (ACDE).

Min Thwe Thit, also a member of the ACDE, told The Irrawaddy that the movement was not willing to take the government at its word alone.

"The public are worried and ask us why we don't stop our protest, and I want to explain to them that we only have an agreement [in principle] and have not officially seen our demands met."

Across Burma, groups of student protestors have set out on marches with the intention of converging on Rangoon. Students from Irrawaddy Division, Dawei and middle Burma have all followed the lead of the main group of protestors originating in Mandalay.

But in a development potentially presaging confrontation, the Ministry of Information announced on Friday night that "for the sake of the country's security, rule of law and to maintain regional peace," authorities would not allow the protesting students to enter Rangoon. "Actions in accordance with the law" would be taken if protesters pushed ahead with the plan to congregate in the commercial capital, the ministry said.

The government has taken an increasingly hostile stance toward the protest movement, with authorities boosting the police presence along the marchers' routes and Home Affairs Minister Lt-Gen Ko Ko saying this week that the students posed a threat to Burma's stability.

Students have been at the forefront of protest actions since pro-independence sentiment picked up steam against Burma's British colonizers in the early 20th century. Successive junta governments dealt harshly with young dissenters, most notably in 1988, when a student-led uprising was brutally crushed by the former junta. Thousands were killed in the streets of Rangoon in the bloody crackdown.

The Mon State government initially said it would not allow the student group from Dawei to leave the state, but later gave way to the marchers.

"First they told us that they would only let us go after Feb. 14 out of fear of violence," said ACDE member Min Lwin Oo, adding that students ran into further resistance when a group of people that were not residents of the area tried to stop them.

"Through tears, we explained why we are protesting the education law," he said. "We paid respect to them and then they didn't stop us anymore."

A delegation of the protesting students met on Thursday with Aung San Suu Kyi at her home in Naypyidaw and discussed the students' 11 demands pertaining to amending the National Education Law.

"We discussed our 11 demands and whether we planned to stop the protest or not," said Min Lwin Oo, adding that they told the National League for Democracy (NLD) chairwoman that only the realization of their demands in Parliament would see the students return to the classroom.

"She said that this cannot be; that in a democratic country, we cannot hope that all of our demands will be met."

Critics of the National Education Law say the legislation centralizes authority, restricts the formation of student and teacher unions and limits curricular freedoms.

Among the students' demands are that the government reintegrate students who left school for political reasons, boost educational spending to 20 percent of the national budget, and change the law to decentralize control over curricula and allow the formation of student and teachers unions.

In a third meeting held on Wednesday involving students, the administration of President Thein Sein, parliamentary representatives and education advocates, the students secured assurances from the government the National Education Law would be revisited and that their 11 demands would be met. A fourth round of talks is due on Saturday, when participants will discuss the details of how the legislation will be revised.

The post Pass Amendments and We'll Go Home, Protesting Students Say appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Dagon City ‘Will Resume’, Amid Calls for Planning Overhaul

Posted: 13 Feb 2015 06:17 AM PST

Dagon City

A promotional balloon flies above the sales office, with Shwedagon Pagoda in the background. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Two weeks after the sudden suspension of the Dagon City 1 high-rise project highlighted the inconsistencies of Rangoon's current planning regime, the development appears set to go ahead as planned after a government review is concluded.

Along with four other projects nearby, work at the 22-acre Dagon City 1 site was halted on Jan. 22 after the Myanmar Investment Commission (MIC) requested a four-week pause, in order to allow an independent team from the Myanmar Engineers Society and the municipal Committee for Quality Control of High Rise Building Projects to review the proposal.

Construction work has yet to begin for the US$300 million project, a joint venture between the international Marga Group syndicate and local partners Thu Kha Yadanar slated to feature a five star hotel, apartments, and a shopping complex in the vicinity of Shwedagon Pagoda.

Aung Naing Oo, director of the MIC, told The Irrawaddy on Thursday that the review had been ordered by the Union government.

"The people upstairs instructed us to reassess all the projects. It probably comes from the President's Office," he said. "They have asked us to reassess the projects to determine whether they would have an impact on the architectural heritage nearby. The Myanmar Engineering Society is now inspecting all projects in the area. Based on their report, the projects will be resumed."

On Saturday, The Irrawaddy quoted Toe Aung, director of the Urban Planning Department in the Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC), as saying that Dagon City 1 had been suspended because the project's buildings would exceed the height of the original proposal. Marga Group chairman Stephen Suen said the development's height had not been altered from the initial proposal approved by the MIC, and any suggestion to the contrary was misinformed.

"All the height requirements are strictly in accordance with existing legislation, we have to emphasise that," Suen told The Irrawaddy on Wednesday. "We haven't changed the height, it's the same as the original proposal. We submitted the proposal 18 months ago, we had two hearings, and representatives from all relevant ministries came."

As local partner, Thu Kha Yadanar was responsible for acquisition of the project site and the initial stages of the application. Thaung Htike Min, Thu Kha Yadanar's director, told The Irrawaddy that the Dagon City 1 proposal passed every component of the YCDC approval process and was found to be in accordance with MIC regulations.

"We didn't make any changes to the proposal that was approved by YCDC," he said.

The issue of building heights has been contentious in recent years, with heritage advocates pushing for legal safeguards to protect sightlines to Shwedagon Pagoda from high-rise developments. While regulatory restrictions limiting building heights have existed for some time, the lack of a legal framework has led to a haphazard approval process.

A 62-foot height limit within a mile of Shwedagon has been official government policy since at least 2011, according to Thant Myint-U, the chairman of the Yangon Heritage Trust. The YCDC devised a draft zoning law to formalize this height restriction in January 2014 with the intention of submitting it to the Rangoon Division parliament. Progress on the draft law has been stalled ever since.

Suen said that it was the opinion of Marga Group's lawyers, international surveyors and a local architect that Dagon City 1 was situated in a zone permitting a total building height of 190 feet, below the base of Shwedagon Pagoda. The development proposal, approved by both the YCDC and MIC, included building heights of eight storeys, higher than the apparent de facto restrictions on buildings in the area, but well short of 190 feet.

Htay Aung, president of the YCDC's High-Rise Building Inspection Committee (IHC), a municipal body that was a party to the approval process for Dagon City 1, said that the lack of a formal zoning law was preventing the committee from making expedient decisions on development approvals.

"I can't make any comment as to how [the project was approved] as it all happened before I become the head of this committee," he said. "The government should officially approve the zoning law as soon as possible. Only then can we make decisions [on high-rise development permissions] effectively."

With the temporary suspension of the five Dagon Township projects, the issue appears to have recaptured the attention of divisional lawmakers.

Thein Nyunt, the Lower House MP for Thingangyun Township, used a parliamentary session on Tuesday to ask the government to pass the zoning law, telling The Irrawaddy on Thursday he had concerns about the impact of Dagon City 1 on Shwedagon.

"I can't support the project as it threatens our national heritage," he said. "The government shouldn't allow that kind of project, even after suspension for review. They must say that buildings that could interfere with the view of Shwedagon are not permitted. Are they going to sacrifice our national heritage to make way for development?"

Thein Nyunt's view was echoed by Thant Myint-U, who told The Irrawaddy that the area around Shwedagon should be left untouched.

"I can’t think of anything more important to heritage conservation in Yangon [Rangoon] than the protection of Shwedagon and views of Shwedagon, For millions of people, it’s a priceless asset. With so much unused land in Yangon and so many other potential sites for medium and high-rise developments, I really don’t see why there should be any development, especially one that would be over 62 feet, within the Shwedagon area," Thant Myint-U said.

"Let me be clear that I certainly don’t oppose developments like Dagon City. It’s the location that’s the issue. We need the kind of investment Marga Landmark wants to make in Yangon’s future and I would be happy to see more modern developments like Dagon City elsewhere," he added.

While Shwedagon is on a YCDC heritage list, both the pagoda and the surrounding area are yet to be officially listed as a heritage site by any international body. Any attempts to block the Dagon City 1 on heritage grounds should be considered accordingly, said Suen.

"By international legal standards, our land is not inside a heritage site. This is our lawyers' opinion," Suen told The Irrawaddy. "I want to emphasise this…Please make it very clear, otherwise my shareholders will ask me to take legal action to protect our reputation."

Whether locals will abide the development is another matter. Rangoon-based architect Maw Lin said that present restrictions on building in the area, aside from being too lenient, were also out of step with public opinion.

"Even though the pagoda is not in a protected area, you should not build that high," he said. "They are in a haste to implement it just before the [draft zoning] law is endorsed."

"They can't just focus on business. This is an ethical issue. They should know how culturally and religiously important the Shwedagon is to the Burmese."

Ultimately, it appears that the Dagon City 1 project will continue as planned despite the interruption. There is no suggestion that the YCDC would seek to reassess and negotiate changes with developers, as flagged by Toe Aung on Saturday, nor that the divisional government would attempt to enact the zoning law and apply it to approvals retrospectively. Thaung Htike Min told The Irrawaddy that the 10-member technical team inspecting the site since last month had yet to flag any issues with Dagon City 1, and Aung Naing Oo said that the MIC trusted the recommendations of the YCDC.

"The MIC approved those projects because they were recommended by the YCDC," said Aung Naing Oo. "I don't think those buildings could damage the view of the pagoda, as they have been approved by experts from the YCDC."

Suen told The Irrawaddy that Marga Group's investment criteria drew the syndicates to projects that would "beautify the country". A doctoral graduate in Buddhism from the University of Hong Kong, he said that Marga Group had also devised a proposal, subject to government approval, to improve the area around Shwedagon, allowing easier access to both tourists and the general public to worship at the revered pagoda.

While Dagon City 1 will be tailored towards higher-end consumers, Suen said that benefits of the development would be open to everyone.

"The site can be enjoyed by the whole society, especially in the shopping area," he said. "If you are poor or you are rich, you can come here. If you are rich you can buy things. The poor can look at the windows and do window shopping."

The post Dagon City 'Will Resume', Amid Calls for Planning Overhaul appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Revoking White Card Holder Voting Rights ‘Counter Reconciliation’: US Official

Posted: 13 Feb 2015 04:41 AM PST

Revoking White Card Rohingya

A woman in a displacement camp in Arakan State's Myebon Township holds up her white card, October 2014. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — A top US State Department official has criticized the government's decision to invalidate temporary identity cards and revoke the voting rights of hundreds of thousands of stateless Rohingya Muslims in western Burma's Arakan State during an upcoming constitutional referendum.

Tom Malinowski, US Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, said in a statement on Twitter on Thursday that "Invalidating white cards for Rohingya in #Burma is counter to the reconciliation in #Rakhine & inclusive elections the gov says it wants."

Malinowski was reacting to President Thein Sein's decision on Wednesday to let temporary identity cards, popularly known as white cards, expire on March 31. The card holders are subsequently required to undergo a citizen verification process carried out by local authorities to determine their status in Burma.

A presidential spokesman said the card holders' right to vote in the referendum—tentatively scheduled for May—was automatically revoked because of the decision. A week earlier, Parliament passed a law proposed by the president that gave white card holders the right to vote—a move that drew the ire of the Arakanese Buddhist community, which are embroiled in an at times violent conflict with the Rohingya minority in Arakan State.

Stéphane Dujarric, spokesman for UN Secretary-General Ban-Ki Moon, told reporters at the UN headquarters in New York that Moon's Special Adviser on Burma, Vijay Nambiar, was looking into the decision's implications.

"We’re very concerned about the reported notification that holders of temporary ID cards will be required to hand over their cards," he said. "This is something that Mr. Nambiar is following closely and he’s trying to get further details as to what this order actually means and how it fits in with things that … the government had committed itself to before."

The UK Embassy and the UN offices in Rangoon did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the government's decision.

The international community has repeatedly criticized Burma's treatment of the Rohingya, who are denied basic government services, such as education and healthcare, and freedom of movement. Foreign governments have called on Burma to grant the Rohingya citizenship and resolve Arakan's humanitarian crisis, which has displaced some 140,000 people, mostly Muslims.

The government has failed to take clear steps to resolve the citizenship issue, which is deeply unpopular with the predominantly Buddhist Burmese public. It launched a pilot citizenship verification project in Arakan in 2013 that was suspended and recently revived, but the process is obscured by a dearth of information.

Some local legal experts have questioned the legality of letting white card holders vote without official citizenship. Burma's former military regime let the approximately 700,000 white card-holding Rohingya vote in the 2008 Constitutional referendum and the 2010 general elections, both considered flawed polls. Members of the Muslim-majority constituencies were also granted seats in Parliament to represent the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party.

The post Revoking White Card Holder Voting Rights 'Counter Reconciliation': US Official appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Rebels Shun Union Day Pledge ‘Without Concrete Points’: Ethnic Leader

Posted: 13 Feb 2015 04:30 AM PST

Pic Union day meeting

President Thein Sein met with ethnic armed groups leaders at the Myanmar International Convention Center in Naypyidaw on Union Day. (Photo: MNA)

RANGOON — The head of an alliance of 16 ethnic armed groups said most of its members had declined to sign a Union Day pledge reaffirming commitments to Burma's stalled nationwide ceasefire process, as the government-drafted statement failed to address key outstanding issues.

Nai Hong Sar, who heads the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team, said most groups had passed up on the opportunity to sign the so-called Deed of Commitment for Peace and National Reconciliation during a meeting with the president on Thursday lacked concrete details on key issues, such as on the ethnics' aspirations for establishing a federal union.

"They are only just saying what sounds good, but if we look at their plan it is very general. They offered not have concrete points of agreement, and there were no strong promises," he told The Irrawaddy.

"For us [the NCCT], we wanted to see it clearly how he [the president] is going to set up federal system plans or even his strong commitment for doing this before we sign a nationwide peace agreement," Nai Hong Sar said. "But they did not accept what we asked—instead they only showed their plans for having a political dialogue."

The leaders of 13 ethnic groups, including most NCCT members and representatives of the powerful United Wa State Army, were invited to attend a meeting with President Thein Sein on Union Day, during which the president called on the groups the sign the statement as a "binding promise, not a legal agreement."

The statement called for "building a Union based on democratic and federal principles in the spirit of Panglong [agreement]," referring to the 1947 agreement that incorporated Chin, Kachin and Shan states into Burma with the right to secede after 10 years.

Only the Karen National Union, the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army, the Shan State Army-South and a Karen splinter group called the KNLA-Peace Council signed the pledge.

Sai Hla, a spokesperson from SSA-South, said it had signed the pledge as the points it were acceptable and "there is nothing to lose for our group by signing this agreement.

"If we do not take it, we will be far away from them, or they [the Burma Army] may think we do not want to have peace. This is a point we need to consider. So, let cooperate with them, and then we will understand them," he said.

The UN Secretary-Generals Special Adviser on Burma, Vijay Nambiar, welcomed the signing of the statement by the president and four ethnic leaders as "an historic moment," but added he hoped that it would "create a
more conducive environment to address" the conflict currently raging in northern Burma "and the serious impact it has had on the civilian population."

Three groups non-ceasefire groups that are currently embroiled in heavy fighting with the Burma Army in northern Shan State, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, were absent from the meeting.

Burma nationwide ceasefire process lost momentum in September as the government, army and rebels failed to bridge disagreements over key issues. The army's surprise shelling of a KIA training school used by various rebel groups on Nov. 19 killed 23 cadets and brought on a further decline in mutual trust.

The post Rebels Shun Union Day Pledge 'Without Concrete Points': Ethnic Leader appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Suu Kyi Enchants in Father’s Hometown, Marking Centennial of His Birth

Posted: 13 Feb 2015 03:36 AM PST

Suu Kyi Father's Hometown

Crowds of revelers gather in General Aung San's hometown of Nat Mauk, Magwe Division on Feb. 13, 2015. (Photo: Teza Hlaing / The Irrawaddy)

NAT MAUK, Magwe Division – Adoring crowds turned out at the birthplace of the late General Aung San on Friday to mark the 100th anniversary of his birth, for an event attended by his youngest daughter, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Some estimated that more than 10,000 people gathered in the small town of Nat Mauk, in Magwe Division, shuffling in from various parts of the country to honor the late independence leader and catch a glimpse of the Lady, Suu Kyi.

Addressing the crowd, she called for unity and responsibility among the nation's citizens, urging them to follow in the footsteps of her father and push for peace.

"Not only the government, but also the citizens, need to fulfill their own duties," she said, asking listeners to be discerning about leadership and to support those who "rule with love and faith."

Crowds were rapt as she spoke lovingly about her father's legacy.

"Remembering my father and honoring him by trying our best to have unity, peace and honesty, to be a country with genuine democracy, is better than paying tribute at a mausoleum," she said to the sea of flag-waving supporters.

Celebrations began in Nat Mauk on Feb. 7, with sermons by some of the nation's most revered monks, including Sitagu Sayadaw and Ashin Sanadika. Live performances were also held throughout the week, such as opera and dance showcasing Shan, Pa-O, Karenni, Palaung and Lisu traditions.

"We've been here since Feb. 7, and we slept on our bus just to celebrate General Aung San's birthday, because this is once in a lifetime," said Daw Mya Thin, 72, who came from Pa Yin village in Magwe Division.

Despite an immovable traffic jam and a shortage of food and accommodation, those who traveled from far-flung places were thrilled to be a part of the festivities. Many locals beamed with pride, but expressed regret that the town was underprepared for the flood of visitors.

"We are so happy to host such a grand ceremony, and we feel great that our town is not forgotten," said Daw Khin Nwae, an 80-year-old cousin of the late Aung San. In tears, she added, "We feel sorry at the same time, as our town is too small for such a big crowd."

Crowds tussled over limited complimentary servings of one of Aung San's favorite meals—Indian flatbread served with steamed beans—dished out to 5,000 revelers each day. One of the lucky ones, 54-year-old Myint Oo from Yaynanchaung, said the snack was symbolic, and that "the centennial would not be compete without Nan Pya and steamed bean, a favorite food of our beloved general."

Later on Friday, Suu Kyi addressed another enormous crowd in Kyaukse, Mandalay Division, where she spoke at length about the need to fight corruption in the government. Suu Kyi said that government employees should be offered fair pay and security, and that tackling corruption will require a "change of mindset" by those in power.

Aung San, often affectionately referred to as "Bogyoke," was the founder of the modern Burma Army and a leading figure in Burma's independence movement. He was well-known for his efforts to unite the country's diverse populace, and is viewed by many as a national hero.

Less than a year before Burma officially became independent of British colonial rule, Aung San and several of his cabinet members were assassinated in Rangoon. He was 32 years old.

His daughter, Suu Kyi, went on to found the National League for Democracy, the nation's main opposition party, which has orchestrated a series of events in honor of the centennial of his birth. Events will be held in Rangoon, Lashio, Mandalay, Kyaukse, Magwe, Yaynanchaung and many other cities throughout the country, where statues of the late general will be unveiled.

The post Suu Kyi Enchants in Father's Hometown, Marking Centennial of His Birth appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Telenor Weighed Down by Surging Asian Costs

Posted: 13 Feb 2015 12:44 AM PST

Telenor

A Telenor employee services customers at the company's launch in Rangoon on Oct. 26, 2014. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

OSLO — Mobile phone operator Telenor missed fourth quarter profit estimates and expects margins to fall this year amid intense competition in Thailand and as it ramps up spending in Burma, sending its shares 7 percent lower.

In past years Norway's Telenor has outperformed European peers because of its exposure to faster growing markets in Asia, including Indian and Bangladeshi units that also disappointed in the fourth quarter.

Telenor, which has over 180 million subscribers across Europe and Asia, is building a network from scratch in Burma and struggling in Thailand, where costs are up and margins on handset sales are negative, the firm said.

"We are not satisfied with the present results in Thailand," Chief Executive Jon Fredrik Baksaas said. "The past few quarters [Thai unit] DTAC has not been able to increase data revenues sufficiently."

In 2015, Telenor expects revenue to grow by "mid-single digits" and its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) margin to fall to between 33 percent to 35 percent from last year's 35.4 percent.

Its fourth quarter EBITDA rose 4 percent to 9.09 billion crowns (US$1.20 billion), missing expectations for 9.72 billion crowns, as units in Thailand, India and Sweden missed forecasts.

Its yearly dividend of 7.30 crowns per share also disappointed as markets had expected 7.77 crowns.

Telenor shares were down 7.75 percent, making the stock the second worst performer among Europe's top firms and wiping $2.5 billion off its market capitalization.

Over the last three months the stock has been flat, underperforming the 15 percent gain on the European telecom index as the government's plans to cut its stake to 34 percent from 54 percent also put off investors. Still, on a price to book value comparison, Telenor is in the middle of its peer group.

Analysts said some of the disappointment would be temporary as spending in Burma is only being brought forward, pointing out that the firm picked up 3.4 million new customers in its first few months there.

"We believe both the top-line growth and margin guidance reflect in particular the much faster ramp in Myanmar, where the 'peak funding' guidance means incremental spending to enable this growth is a timing issue," brokerage Jefferies said in a note.

In Telenor's core Scandinavian market, which generates just over a third of profits, the firm performed broadly in line with forecasts with the Norwegian unit ahead of expectations.

The post Telenor Weighed Down by Surging Asian Costs appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

SABMiller Eyes Stake in Burma Brewer: Sources

Posted: 12 Feb 2015 11:47 PM PST

SABMiller Myanmar Beer

A billboard advertises Myanmar Beer in Rangoon. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

LONDON — SABMiller is exploring the possibility of snapping up a stake in Burma's biggest brewer, a deal that would make it the partner of a conglomerate with ties to the former ruling military, sources familiar with the matter say.

Any such deal involving Myanmar Brewery would likely be seen as a vote of confidence in the country's nascent consumer sector, which is emerging after decades of military dictatorship.

The conglomerate, Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited (UMEHL), was cleared to buy the stake, thought to be worth around US$500 million (327 million pounds), in October when it won an arbitration case against Singapore's Fraser and Neave.

A Singaporean tribunal ruled that UMEHL was entitled to buy out F&N's 55 percent stake in Myanmar Brewery, taking full control of the brewer, because F&N had defaulted on a term in their joint venture agreement. F&N said at the time it was disappointed at the ruling and was reviewing its options.

The sources familiar with the matter said UMEHL was looking for a partner in taking over F&N's stake. The sources, who declined to be identified because the matter is private, said SABMiller was interested. It is not clear whether SABMiller would buy the entire stake or part of it.

One of the sources said other parties including Japan's Kirin Holdings and Thailand's Boon Rawd Brewery, maker of Singha beer, could also be interested.

SABMiller and F&N declined to comment. Reuters attempted to contact Myint Aung, MEHL's deputy managing director but he was unavailable for comment. Kirin and Boon Rawd Brewery were not immediately available for comment.

Myanmar Brewery, which makes Myanmar Beer, Myanmar Double Strong and Andaman Gold, has an 83 percent share of the country's beer market, according to an F&N presentation in May.

F&N, a Singaporean food and drinks company, has held a stake in Myanmar Brewery since 1997 and has bided its time in Burma while the country was shunned by most Western companies. The company has said UMEHL had tried to compel it to sell its 55 percent stake for $246 million, a price it says the tribunal found to be below fair value.

However, F&N is still keen to hold on to the stake and capitalize on an anticipated uptick in the market. It has appointed an independent evaluator, as required by the arbitration ruling, to assess the fair value of the asset, according to a source familiar with the matter.

Whilst that assessment is pending, SAB Miller could pre-emptively approach UMEHL with an opportunistic offer, said one of the sources, adding that there is no certainty that a deal will be struck.

SABMiller has done many deals on its journey from a small South African player to the world's No. 2 brewery, including the 2005 purchase of Colombia's Bavaria, the 2007 purchase of Grolsch, the 2008 combination of Miller Brewing Co. with the US business of Molson Coors and the 2011 purchase of Foster's Group.

Like other brewers, SABMiller is struggling to grow in Europe and North America. New revenues from emerging middle classes in developing markets have been dented by weak currencies in many of those countries.

In September 2014, SABMiller approached Heineken about a potential takeover of the Dutch brewer that was rebuffed. The move was seen by analysts as a way of protecting itself from a potential takeover by global leader Anheuser-Busch.

SABMiller boss Alan Clark subsequently denied that it was a defensive move, stating that the maker of beers including Grolsch and Peroni would continue to be "assertive and in a search for value and growth."

Unlike some of its biggest rivals, SABMiller does not have one global beer brand such as Heineken, but instead has used acquisitions to penetrate markets with local brands. Whilst it has a strong presence in emerging markets in Latin America and Africa, its footprint in Asia is confined to a joint venture in China, CR Snow, and smaller tie-ups in India and Vietnam.

Global companies including Coca-Cola, Yum Brands, Nestle and Unilever have all invested in Burma recently, seeking to take advantage of its population of 50 million people, with a growing middle class with disposable income.

The post SABMiller Eyes Stake in Burma Brewer: Sources appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

47 Govt Troops Killed, Tens of Thousands Flee Heavy Fighting in Shan State

Posted: 12 Feb 2015 11:39 PM PST

Fighting in Shan State

A photo reportedly shows Kokang refugees sheltering in a public building in Nansan, in China's Yunnan Province, on Thursday after they fled heavy fighting in Shan State. (Lachid Kachin / Facebook)

Burmese state media announced on Friday that Burma Army operations against ethnic Kokang rebels in northern Shan State have cost the lives of 47 soldiers so far, while 73 were wounded during the recent heavy fighting.

The Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper said at least three armed engagements on Feb. 9-12 between government forces and the rebels, also known as the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), in the Kokang Special Region's Laukkai Township led to the casualties.

It said "Kokang renegade troops" attacked a pro-government militia and were prevented from assaulting a military headquarters in Kongyan region, adding that the army responded with five airstrikes.

"So far, the fighting has left the government forces with 47 dead, 73 wounded and five vehicles destroyed," the paper said. "The Kokang renegade groups were found to be good at military maneuvering with the use of scores of heavy weapons, including anti-aircraft machine guns."

"[T]he current situation in Laukkai has returned to normal thanks to the joint efforts of the government troops and police forces," the paper claimed.

Htun Myat Lin, general-secretary of MNDAA, said at least three Kokang fighters were killed and eight injured during the Feb. 9-12 fighting.

He said tens of thousands of local residents had fled Laukkai Township, the region's biggest town, and crossed into China's Yunnan Province in order to escape the heavy fighting, which involved Burma Army airstrikes by Mi-35 Russian-made helicopter gunships and Mi-29 Russian-made fighter jets.

"Almost all local residents fled their homes for safety. Almost all towns and villages were empty. They fled their homes after the Burmese army use planes to bomb. Businesses in Laukkai town are shutting down," Htun Myat Lin said.

Chinese state media reports have confirmed that large groups of Kokang refugees have streamed across the border into Yunnan Province, although no estimates of the total number of refugees were mentioned. The reports said the Kokang, an ethnic Chinese minority from Burma, were being taken care of by local authorities and organizations.

A report on China.org.cn on Thursday said, "The conflict has caused a huge exodus of refugees clogging at the border of China’s Yunnan Province."

Fighting has escalated in recent weeks in the Kokang region, located on the Burma-China border, and the MNDAA and its allies the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Shan State Army–North and the Arakan Army have taken a growing number of government forces entering the region.

According to some reports, the MNDAA was attempting to retake areas in the region that it lost during a 2009 Burma Army offensive that crushed the rebel group.

An estimated 1,000 MNDAA fighters along with hundreds of other rebel fighters have clashed in at least 13 separate areas in Laukkai Township in recent days.

Meanwhile, further west, in northern Kachin State, KIA sources said they had also come under Burma Army assault in recent days.

A KIA officer based in Laiza said government forces had been firing mortar rounds from Feb. 10, while about 30 army trucks carrying reinforcements were seen travelling north on the road from Momauk town to Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin State.

"They fired 60-mm and 81-mm [rounds] around areas nearby Laiza. They fired it almost every day in early morning and at night since Feb. 10. They fired six times last night. We don’t know about their intentions, but we are now on alert and we will fire back when we are ordered to," said the officer, who declined to be named as he was not authorized to speak with the media.

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Tough Election Battles Ahead for India’s Modi After Delhi Drubbing

Posted: 12 Feb 2015 10:22 PM PST

Modi elections

A worker of Bharatiya Janata Party takes a nap in front of the party's campaign billboard featuring Prime Minister Narendra Modi, left, and the BJP's president Amit Shah at a party office in New Delhi on Feb. 10, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

NEW DELHI — Amit Shah, president of India's ruling party, spent much of his son's wedding day this week on the phone to worried colleagues in the capital, where a disastrous election result is prompting those in power to rethink their policies and priorities.

According to two people at the event in the western city of Ahmedabad, Shah, who had overseen the New Delhi campaign for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), cut a subdued figure. No firecrackers went off and the marching band did not play.

Tuesday's results showed Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP won just three of 70 seats. The remaining 67 went to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), a grassroots anti-corruption movement led by 46-year-old former tax inspector Arvind Kejriwal.

It was a crushing reversal for a party that swept to power in a national ballot last May, and a warning ahead of more significant state elections in the coming years that could directly impact Modi's ability to push through planned reforms.

"Modi takes every election result seriously," said a BJP leader involved in the Delhi campaign, who asked not to be named. "You can't fool him, or tell him all is well and this election is not important."

Modi's team blames the defeat on tactical errors, including the choice of a top former policewoman as lead campaigner and comments by hardline Hindu BJP lawmakers that alienated liberal Hindus, who put development and governance before religion.

"The risk is not alienating the Muslims; they don't vote for us anyway," the BJP leader said. "The problem is, we alienate the moderate Hindus."

While there were problems specific to Delhi, and Kejriwal's AAP has little traction elsewhere, his victory is likely to embolden other regional leaders, particularly after the main opposition Congress party failed to win a single seat.

The drubbing could also damage Modi's image among the broader public.

While Modi traveled to a Delhi campaign rally by helicopter to avoid the capital's gridlocked streets, Kejriwal went from door-to-door to spread his message, visited the city's slums and apologized for past mistakes—a rarity in Indian politics.

"Kejriwal was able to effectively present himself as someone who is going to fight for the simple, common man," said N. Bhaskara Rao, chairman of the Center for Media Studies in New Delhi. "The lesson for Modi is that he can't be complacent or aloof. He has to fight for every single vote."

Modi needs to win most of the state elections in the next four years to gain control of both houses of parliament.

While the BJP and its allies have a majority in the lower house, they only have about a quarter of the 245 members in the upper house, where seats are distributed based on the strength of parties in state assemblies.

That has allowed the opposition parties to block some of his efforts to overhaul the economy and forced Modi to use decrees to push through decisions, a method even his supporters concede is unsustainable in the long term.

States that control about half of the seats in the upper house will go to the polls in the next three years, but the BJP does not have a strong foothold in many of them.

The next vote will be in Bihar, India's third-most-populous state, a territory that the BJP have never ruled outright. Elections in Bihar traditionally been driven by caste loyalties favoring regional parties.

The defeat of the BJP in Delhi has energized two powerful leaders in Bihar, who, since the vote in the capital, have buried their differences and united against the BJP's biggest ever push to galvanize support in the state.

The leaders in Bihar, as well as in neighboring West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, are all bidding to occupy space ceded by Congress, traditionally India's dominant party but now facing political oblivion.

"The regional parties will remain important players over the next 10 years as they go up against the BJP," said Sanjay Kumar, director of the Center for the Study of Developing Societies.

While worrying for Modi and the BJP, party insiders said there was no sense of panic, and Shah was likely to remain a key lieutenant to the prime minister in electoral battles to come.

"There may have been tactical errors in the way we ran the Delhi campaign, but there was nothing fundamentally wrong," the senior BJP source said. "Just because you lose one match doesn't mean that you need to change the captain and the manager."

The post Tough Election Battles Ahead for India's Modi After Delhi Drubbing appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Despite New Law, Suu Kyi not Likely to Have a Shot at Presidency

Posted: 12 Feb 2015 10:01 PM PST

Aung San Suu Kyi

Burma's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi smiles during a meeting with a group of Burmese citizens residing in Japan on April 13, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

RANGOON — A new law that enables Burma to hold a referendum on amending the Constitution is unlikely to bring changes that would allow opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to become president after this year's general election, a ruling party parliamentarian said on Thursday.

President Thein Sein has signed off on a constitutional referendum law, lawmakers said on Wednesday. The move comes after domestic and international pressure to reform Burma's political system, which is stacked in favor of the military.

Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) party have been pushing for changes to the Constitution, which the military drafted. One clause bars anyone whose children or spouse are foreigners from becoming president, which is seen aimed at Nobel laureate Suu Kyi, whose two sons are British citizens.

Shwe Maung, a parliamentarian from the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), said the clause is unlikely to be included if a referendum is held this year.

Bringing that section to referendum would require support from 76 percent of parliamentarians, but such a move would be opposed by unelected military MPs who hold 25 percent of the seats and many in the USDP, which holds most seats and is made up largely of former military officers, he said.

"I don't expect a rapid change," he said. "If it's not possible this time, maybe in a future referendum."

Burma's president is chosen by parliamentarians after the general election.

It is unclear whether the referendum would be held at all this year.

Shwe Maung and other lawmakers have said a referendum could take place as early as May, as was suggested by the powerful parliamentary speaker Shwe Mann.

Others say that is unlikely given the logistical challenges faced by the Union Election Commission, which is busy preparing for general elections expected in late October or November. Preparations include updating the voters list, a mammoth task.

"The updated list won't be ready until later in the year," said Richard Horsey, a Yangon-based independent political analyst.

He said a constitutional referendum is unlikely this year, but could take place concurrent with the general elections if parliament was able to decide on which articles should be put to vote.

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Sri Lanka Minister Optimistic About Delaying War-Crimes Report

Posted: 12 Feb 2015 09:55 PM PST

Sri Lanka, UN

Sri Lankan Tamils hold pictures of family members who disappeared during the war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam during a protest in Jaffna, about 400 km (250 miles) north of Colombo November 15, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

WASHINGTON — Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera said on Thursday he was optimistic about securing a delay in the release of a U.N. report on alleged war crimes during his country’s civil war until the government has had time to establish a new judicial mechanism to deal with the allegations.

Speaking to reporters after a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, whose support is crucial to such a delay, Samaraweera stressed the decision was one for U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein and the president of the U.N. rights council.

However, he also said: "I am optimistic."

Samaraweera said in Washington on Wednesday the new Sri Lankan government was seeking to delay the scheduled March 25 release of the U.N. Human Rights Council report until "August … or so."

Asked if he was anticipating support from the United States, Britain and Commonwealth countries, he said: "We hope; we anticipate the support of all our friends in the coming months."

The U.N. Human Rights Council voted last March to look into reports of abuses during the civil war that ended in 2009, saying the Sri Lankan government had failed to investigate properly.

The United Nations estimated in 2011 that about 40,000 ethnic Tamil civilians were killed in the final weeks of the war, most of them by the army. The government of the majority Sinhalese country rejected that assertion.

Sri Lanka’s new government, which took power last month, says it is planning a new domestic inquiry that would bring in some foreign experts if necessary. It has also invited Zeid to visit to discuss the issue.

Samaraweera has appealed for patience, saying Sri Lanka was in a period of "fragile transition" that some extremist elements wanted to derail.

He said the new administration of President Maithripala Sirisena was "not in a state of denial" about violations and would ensure those responsible were brought to justice.

Samaraweera also said Sri Lanka would start discussions next week with South African officials on instituting a "truth-seeking" mechanism, which would work in parallel to the accountability mechanism.

Speaking alongside Kerry before their talks, Samaraweera said Sri Lanka hoped to move ties with the United States, which had become "somewhat strained in the last few years" under former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, back to "an irreversible state of excellence."

"For us … the United States of America is not a threat, but a great opportunity," he said, adding that "the Sri Lankan-U.S. partnership must take into account the island’s strategic location."

The United States is eager to woo Asian countries to counterbalance an increasingly powerful and assertive China. It had been concerned by Rajapaksa’s closeness to China and his decision to allow Chinese submarines to dock in Sri Lanka.

President Barack Obama called Sirisena’s surprise election a "symbol of hope" for democracy. Kerry said Washington was "excited" by a 100-day plan Sirisena has announced to roll back a decade of increasingly authoritarian rule under Rajapaksa.

The issue of the war crimes report is expected to be discussed at a committee meeting of the U.N. Human Rights Council on Monday, when a decision could be taken.

John Sifton, Asia advocacy director of Human Rights Watch, said his organization did not oppose a delay if the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights felt the time could be used productively to produce a better report and agree on an international role in the accountability process.

He said the best-case scenario would be a tribunal mechanism that included international staff with procedural powers, not just as observers. "A purely domestic effort is just not going to work," he said.

The post Sri Lanka Minister Optimistic About Delaying War-Crimes Report appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Inmates Commit Suicide After Failed Prison Breakout in Taiwan

Posted: 12 Feb 2015 09:50 PM PST

Prison Break Taiwan

Police officers stand guard outside Kaohsiung Prison in southern Taiwan during the hostage crisis on Wednesday. (Photo: CY Chang / Reuters)

TAIPEI — Six inmates led by a mob boss committed suicide at a prison in Taiwan early Thursday after a failed breakout attempt in which they seized weapons and held a warden and guards hostage, officials said. All the hostages were safe.

The inmates started their attempt Wednesday afternoon in the southern port city of Kaohsiung. In a telephone interview with a newspaper during the overnight standoff, the 46-year-old ringleader said the six had long planned the move and were prepared to die. He also complained about long sentences and unfairness in the granting of medical paroles.

Deputy Justice Minister Chen Ming-tang said officials rejected the group’s demands for safe passage out of the prison and had tried to convince them to surrender peacefully during hours of negotiations.

"We tried to give them assurances so they wouldn’t do something stupid and to reconsider, but sadly they committed suicide and we feel deep regret," Chen told a news conference in Taipei.

Chen said five prison staff were slightly injured in the standoff, but did not elaborate.

By the pre-dawn hours, the inmates had released all hostages except the warden. They then shot themselves, and the warden was able to walk free, Chen said.

The ministry did not offer any video or other evidence of the suicides, but there was no sign during the standoff of a raid by police who ringed the Kaohsiung Prison in scenes that were broadcast by Taiwan stations.

Chen said four of the inmates shot themselves first and that the remaining two had fired additional shots at them to make sure they were dead before shooting themselves, at about 5:30am Thursday.

The inmates ranged in age from 37 to 63 and were serving sentences for homicide, burglary and drug crimes.

The ringleader, Cheng Li-te, was known as head of the Kaohsiung branch of the notorious mafia-type organization Bamboo Union and was serving a 28-year sentence for homicide, the ministry said. The other five inmates were serving sentences ranging from 25 years to life.

According to a timeline given by the Justice Ministry, the incident began at about 3:10pm Wednesday when the six attacked staff at the prison infirmary and stole a prison skeleton key in an attempt to escape.

After finding they were unable to open the prison’s outer door, they attacked other staff with knives and broke into the prison armory where they stole four rifles, six handguns and ammunition.

By about 4:15, negotiations were underway over their demands and the release of prison guards taken hostage as police took up positions around the prison.

The inmates demanded safe passage from the prison while holding Warden Chen Shih-chih and head guard Wang Shih-tsang after the pair offered to swap themselves for earlier hostages.

At one point, Cheng’s mother spoke to him by phone, urging him not to act rashly. The group also demanded and received two bottles of sorghum liquor, but continued to refuse to hand over their weapons.

The United Daily News said that in the phone call with Cheng he also had complained about the tendency of judges to presume guilt, and to give long sentences to repeat offenders.

Chen said the inmates fired guns at about midnight to try to shoot down drone cameras deployed by media outlets and again at about 3am to warn off police.

The ministry said it had rejected demands that the police force be withdrawn and that two vehicles be provided to allow the prisoners to leave in exchange for the safety of the detainees.

The inmates used the need for medical care as a pretense to lure prison guards before kidnapping them, the official Central News Agency said.

The ministry said Deputy Warden Lai Chen-jung and head guard Wang volunteered to swap with the two guards who were initially taken hostage. Later, Chen, the prison warden, offered to exchange with Lai as a hostage.

The post Inmates Commit Suicide After Failed Prison Breakout in Taiwan appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

‘We Were Happy at That Time’

Posted: 12 Feb 2015 08:43 PM PST

Kachin, Bogyoke

General Aung San caught in a rare moment of laughter in Kachin State, 1946.

General Aung San was rarely seen smiling in a photograph. Perhaps the only known photo of the architect of modern Burma caught in a moment of laughter was from a visit he made to Kachin State in the pre-independence era, when he was captured in a snapshot posing with six young Kachin women between discussions with ethnic leaders about the nation's future departure from British rule.

Only one of those women is still alive today. The Irrawaddy tracked down 88-year-old Hkawn Raw Makawng, who now lives in the Kachin State capital Myitkyina. Surprised by the unexpected phone call, she happily retold her recollections of the man and the moment behind the photograph.

"It was taken by the roadside, near a place which is now Man Kein Basic Education High School, in 1946," she said, remembering the visit Aung San made just a year before he was assassinated. He had traveled to Kachin State to meet with high-ranking ethnic delegates. She said the purpose of the summit was to drum up support for the independence movement and encourage unity across Burma's myriad ethnic groups.

"The general came to say that Burmese people alone could not claim back independence, but that it could only be claimed by all of the ethnic groups in Burma," said Hkawn Raw Makawng, who was part of a catering team, though she wasn't at the meetings. She remembers that Sama Duwa Sin Wa Naung, Duwa Zaw Lun, Laban Ga Raung, Duwa Zaw rek, Den Ra Tan and Duwa Zaw La Thu were among the attendees.

The thing she remembered most vividly about the occasion was the moment just before the shutter clicked, etching in time an image of the general's joy. She and five other Kachin women, dressed to the nines in intricate traditional attire, stood in a row behind the seated leader. She can be seen just behind his left shoulder, her face partially obscured.

"As we were posing for the photo, someone—perhaps his bodyguard—said to him: 'General, Daw Khin Kyi would sulk if she knew you were posing for a picture with Kachin women," she recalled. Khin Kyi was the late general's wife.

"He began to laugh, and that's when the photo was taken. We were happy at that time."

Reporting contributed by Lin Thant.

The post 'We Were Happy at That Time' appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

National News

National News


K5000-a-day proposed for minimum wage

Posted: 13 Feb 2015 12:52 AM PST

Workers should receive at least K5000 for an eight-hour day, say people who responded to researchers gathering data for the government's minimum-wage enquiry.

NLD forms campaign team

Posted: 13 Feb 2015 12:51 AM PST

Despite refusing to commit to contesting the general election later this year, the National League for Democracy has created a campaign group.

Suu Kyi addresses crowd at Aung San centenary

Posted: 12 Feb 2015 11:46 PM PST

Aung San Suu Kyi has addressed a thousands-strong crowd in Natmauk on the 100 year anniversary of her father's birth.

MP calls for halt to Nay Pyi Taw spending

Posted: 12 Feb 2015 11:23 PM PST

An Upper House MP has called on the government to stop all projects in Nay Pyi Taw. U Myat Nyarna Soe told the Amyotha Hluttaw on February 10 that money invested in Nay Pyi Taw's "giant road network" and other infrastructure was being wasted.

UEC to meet civil society, parties this week

Posted: 12 Feb 2015 11:20 PM PST

Political parties and electoral NGOs will meet this week with the Union Election Commission to discuss the codes of conduct that will govern their activities during the campaign.

EITI board members rap govt over mine death

Posted: 12 Feb 2015 11:13 PM PST

Civil society members of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative's International Board have slammed the government over the death of a protester at the Letpadaung copper mine in December, as well as subsequent charges filed against civil society leaders.

TNLA, Arakan Army join Kokang fight

Posted: 12 Feb 2015 11:05 PM PST

The TNLA and Arakan Army are helping Kokang rebels re-occupy territory they lost to the Tatmadaw in 2009 near the Chinese border, in several days of clashes that have claimed the lives of 47 Tatmadaw troops and injured a further 73.      

Shan Herald Agency for News

Shan Herald Agency for News


UNION DAY INTERIM AGREEMENT: The President needs to walk an extra mile

Posted: 13 Feb 2015 03:11 AM PST

Thein Sein's government has tried two times within a time span of a little more than one month to deliver a diplomatic coup, but has not been successful to the extent that it has anticipated or hope or.

Sai Wansai


The first one was on the Independence Day, 4 January, where the ceremony attending Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) were given a few minutes of audience each, which was a far cry from equal diplomatic relation or a sort of protocol wished by the EAOs. And the other, the recent Union Day celebration, on the 12th of February, where only four of the 13 attending EAOs signed the so-called interim agreement titled, "Deed of Commitment for Peace and National Reconciliation".

The government is, at long last, employing its much talked about "open book" signatory approach, where the EAOs could sign according to their wishes, whenever they like. It now seems it has given up the hope of getting all the EAOs to sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) together.

The five points interim solution agreement includes, the building of a federal union, according to the result from Political Dialogue (PD) and Panglong spirit; to conclude NCA; to solve the conflict through all-inclusive PD; to draft Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD) before 2015 election; and to prevent armed clashes and confrontations between various armed groups.

According to DVB report of 12 February, the President, 2 Vice-Presidents, Union Election Commission Chairman, 15 Government Ministers, 3 Parliament Representatives, 3 military Representative Generals, 55 Political parties out of 61 parties, 29 Ethnic Affairs Ministers, and 4 EAOs from 13 EAOs, signed the statement.

The four EAOs that signed it were Karen National Union (KNU), Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA) and Karen Peace Council (KPC).

The interim agreement proposal of United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) for the Union Day to be signed was "building a federal union based on national states, with equality, rights of self-determination and democracy", which the government have already rejected, saying only noncommittally that "building a federal union from the discussion outcome of PD", which is to be held after the signing of NCA.

If one looks at it generally, it seems like as if there is not much difference and would be generally taken by the public that an agreement to establish a federal union have already been reached. A closer look at it will reveal that USPD-Military clique is not prepared to go along with the UNFC's national states-based federal union, but might be only ready to devolve some central powers, with the USPD-Military dominated, presidential unitary system fully intact.

The question why the government side is so reluctant and so careful not to commit itself politically for a genuine federal union set up, could be only explained that it is not ready to abandon or loosen its political monopoly that it has enjoyed since the military coup in 1962 and its economic edge and privilege that comes with it. In short, USPD-Military clique is trying to maintain its "group survival" mode for as long as it can through political power monopoly and might only wants to fade out gradually, without having to meet the faith of violent political purge and able to make a quite exit, whenever it chooses, with all their ill-gotten economic gains intact.

The tactics of Burman racial supremacy ideology now seems not to be working like it used to be among the Burman majority, for the partial liberalization of political atmosphere since Thein Sein comes to power in 2011, have pave the way for more political awareness, particularly where the understanding of federalism is concerned. And as a result, the call for the structural change from unitary presidential to federal form of government has become louder with every passing day.

The 88 generation and as well, the Nationalities League for Democracy (NLD) have issued statements on the occasion of Union Day that the ethnic conflict could be only solved through equitable power-sharing, based on the system of genuine federalism, and according to the aspiration of Panglong Agreement, signed in 1947 between the then Ministerial Burma and the non-Burman ethnic states.

The situation is that the USDP-Military regime would like to perhaps fade away gradually at its own pace, without endangering its hold on power base to ensure its safety exit, while the ethnic and democratic opposition want to accelerate the process of democratization and federalism to end the tyrannical rule and military domination of the polity to resolve ethnic conflict, as soon as possible.

Nai Hong Sar, in his interview with Mizzima, on 2 February, makes it quite clear, in response to the question, what the Tatmadaw (military) would gain in being an obstacle to peace process in Burma, when he said. "The benefits for the Tatmadaw of being an obstacle to the peace process is that they will be able to maintain their power and their own business opportunities. It is protecting their interests. This is why the Tatmadaw opposes changes to the constitution. As long as the constitution prevails, it is protecting the interests of the Tatmadaw."

Equally convincing, but still need to go an extra mile, to endorse it without second thought, is what Thein Sein has said in his message to mark the Union Day message. He said:"The government has been relentless in its efforts to sign a nationwide ceasefire agreement and has been holding all-inclusive political dialogue with all national political forces with the aim of developing a union based on a federal system and a genuine peace that puts an end to the armed conflicts that have raged for over six decades, ever since independence was regained."

An extra mile, in this sense, is non other than the commitment of building a federal union anchored in "equality, rights of self-determination and democracy", rather than just a non-committal phase or slippery wordings like forming federal system of union "according to the outcome from political dialogue".

At this moment, no one knows if Thein Sein's and his henchmen tactics of "open book" strategy will snowball in no time and overwhelm the UNFC and Nationwide Ceasefire Coordinating Team (NCCT) or would just fade away with the time.

According to The Irrawaddy report of 12 February, longtime Burma expert Bertil Lintner described the commitment as merely a "face-saving gesture" designed to please the international community.


"The so-called 'peace process' has failed," he said. "Just look at the north of the country. As this agreement was signed there's heavy fighting in Kokang, northern Shan State, and in parts of Kachin State."


Face-saving gesture or not, if Thein Sein really wants to turn his failure or defeat back into a success story, he will need to walk an extra mile, whether he likes it or not.

The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU) — Editor

PI director to speak in Thailand’s Deep South tomorrow

Posted: 12 Feb 2015 08:26 PM PST

Khuensai Jaiyen, managing director of the Pyidaungsu Institute (PI) for Peace and Dialogue, will be making another presentation in Thai at the Songkhla Srinakharin University, Pattani Campus, tomorrow on the ongoing Burma's peace process.

Presentation by Khuensai Jaiyen at Naresuan University, 19 December 2014. (Photo: PI)

His presentation comes under the heading "Democracy in Multi-ethnic Society". It is expected to be attended by religious leaders, lawyers, CSO representatives and academics.


"It seems they are eager to learn from Burma's experience in the peace effort and see how much it can be applied to the Thai situation," said Khuensai, whose PI also has a branch — and soon to be bigger — office in Rangoon. "Well, I think we will also be learning from them too."


He had already given a presentation in his Shan-accented Thai at the Naresuan University hosted Thai-Myanmar Studies in Asean Community seminar, which was organized by Dr Charnvit Kasetsiri, one of Thailand's leading scholars, on 18- 19 December 2014.