Wednesday, November 4, 2015

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine


Real Estate Pro: ‘Overall, the Market Has Cooled Down’

Posted: 04 Nov 2015 04:14 AM PST

 Than Oo, managing director of the Mandine Real Estate Agency. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

Than Oo, managing director of the Mandine Real Estate Agency. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

Since earlier this year, Rangoon's formerly dynamic real estate market has seen a striking cool-down in key locations in the city. While many factors have contributed to this economic malaise, Burma's Nov. 8 general election, which is hoped to be the country's freest and fairest in decades, has surely played a part. Because of the uncertainty surrounding the current political climate, many investors, both local and international, are approaching Burma's real estate market with a wait-and-see attitude.

Than Oo, managing director of the Mandine Real Estate Agency and vice chairman of the Myanmar Real Estate Services Association, spoke with The Irrawaddy this week about the future of Burma's real estate market.  

Many people have said that Rangoon's real estate market has cooled down because of the country's historic election, scheduled for Nov. 8. Is this true?

Yes, this is true in some places [in Rangoon]. Overall, the market has cooled down. For instance, the market for luxury houses as well as land in project areas is rather sluggish. But there are still small-amount dealings—dealings worth less than 100 million kyats—in other places. And as we are now in the Thadingyut period [the seventh month of Burma's calendar, and when many people are moving after the three-month rainy reason], rental agreements are also being renewed.

Do you mean that Rangoon's lucrative real estate market has crashed?

There are still high-value dealings, but now they are few and far between, unlike between 2011 and 2013. A number of factors have contributed to the decline, as we are currently seeing. But now the decline is also largely because of the election. Everyone is approaching it with a wait-and-see attitude.

Do you think that the real estate market will bounce back after the election, and if so, why?

We're waiting for that to happen. The real estate market depends on Burma's economy, and Burma's economy depends on politics. The country's politics need to pave the way for economic development. Both local and international communities are waiting to see what happens. A comparison of foreign investments between May and now makes the issue plain. In May, foreign investments totaled just over US$56 billion, but there has been little change in this figure since then. Western countries in particular are coming at the situation with a wait-and-see attitude. And if these big economies are taking this approach, then other countries will surely follow suit. They'll keep an eye not only on the real estate sector but also on other economic sectors. In fact, all of Burma's economic sectors, not just the real estate market, are sluggish and are cooling down.

What places in Rangoon that were once lively are now seeing a cool-down in the real estate market?

This cool-down is happening in many townships, but it's particularly been in Bahan, Mayangon, Kamayut, and Sanchaung townships where the market for high-price property has declined. There was formerly a vibrant property market—including the market for condominiums— in South Okkalapa, North Dagon, and in industrial zone areas such as Dagon Seikkan, Dagon South, and Dagon East. But now the market has started to stagger in these places, too. There are two sectors of the property market—sales and rental. Though the sales market is slowing down, the rental market is doing well, but it's still not as extraordinarily lively as it was between 2007 and 2014.

Do you think that we'll see positive changes in the real estate market if the new government is able to adopt clear policies regarding the property market?

Because Burma's property market is linked to its economy, the new government must adopt  good economic policies in tandem with good political policies. At the same time, the economic and foreign policies of Burma's neighbors will affect the markets here. Some have withdrawn investments, while for others investment has been low. There are also various other factors [that have affected the property market] aside from the election, such as the heavy flooding in June and July that caused serious damage in 12 divisions and states. Added to this are the problems of corruption and bribery that have benefitted cronies and rich people who have laundered money by investing in the property market.

Everyone says that the property market is the best place to launder money. Will this change under the new government?

This is why we have to wait and see how the election goes. I don't want to talk about hopes before we have seen any results. But seeing as how the main opposition leader [Aung San Suu Kyi of the National League for Democracy] has recently said that she would not hold any grudges but rather cooperate [with those currently in power, if the NLD wins a majority in the election], I don't think that she will retaliate against those who did very bad things in the past.

What will happen if the Condominium Law is enacted next year?

There may be changes if the Condominium Law is enacted. The law was drafted in 2013. It is taking a long time for it to be enacted because [the government] does not want to allow foreigners to own land [in Burma]. But I don't know if the leaders of our country know or not that foreigners already illegally own land in Burma.

The post Real Estate Pro: 'Overall, the Market Has Cooled Down' appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Fugitive Student Detained in Rangoon, Second Activist Arrest in One Week

Posted: 04 Nov 2015 12:47 AM PST

Lin Htet Naing and his wife, jailed student activist Phyo Phyo Aung. (Photo: ABFSU)

Lin Htet Naing and his wife, jailed student activist Phyo Phyo Aung. (Photo: ABFSU)

RANGOON — Student activist Lin Htet Naing, also known simply as "James," was arrested late Tuesday for his role the education reform protest movement, after spending more than seven months in hiding.

Lin Htet Naing, who is married to jailed activist Phyo Phyo Aung, was the second student demonstrator to be apprehended in less than a week, after fellow fugitive Kyaw Ko Ko was arrested last Thursday.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy by phone on Wednesday, a spokesperson for the All Burma Federation of Student Unions (ABFSU) confirmed that Lin Htet Naing had been found, arrested and transported to an unknown location in police custody.

"We can only confirm that he is detained by police, but we don't know where he is and I am very worried about it," said Aung Nay Paing of ABFSU, adding that the 27-year-old had been detained while on a bus heading to Shwepyithar Township.

Following his arrest, Special Branch officers searched Lin Htet Naing's home around 10am on Wednesday morning, interrogating one of his family members and confiscating some of his financial assets.

"The police confirmed that they arrested James but they didn't want to tell me where he is," his aunt, Myint Myint Sein, told The Irrawaddy after officers left their family home. Lin Htet Naing's relatives are now waiting at the Kamayut Township Court where they believe he will be taken for arraignment.

An arrest warrant was issued for Lin Htet Naing in earlier this year, just after a brutal March 10 crackdown on student demonstrators in Letpadan, Pegu Division, that initially landed more than 100 students and supporters in jail.

Lin Htet Naing faces charges of unlawful assembly, rioting and incitement for his role in a solidarity protest that took place on the same day in Rangoon's Hledan Township.

More than 60 people are in Thayawady Prison on charges relating to the March 10 protest, the violent conclusion of six weeks of nationwide protests against Burma's National Education Law.

Most have been in detention for nearly eight months, facing prison terms of up to nine and a half years and sitting through a trial subject to numerous adjournments and walkouts by the presiding judge.

International and domestic rights bodies—including the Myanmar National Human Rights Commission—have called for the release of all prisoners of conscience and student activists in detention before a general election to be held on Nov. 8.

Aung Nay Paing of ABFSU said the recent "crackdown" on remaining activists indicates the government's reluctance to allow free participation in the polls.

"The government is afraid of an all-inclusive election," he said, "so they detain the students and the politicians beforehand."

The post Fugitive Student Detained in Rangoon, Second Activist Arrest in One Week appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Bhutanese Getting More Sleep, Lifting Happiness Index

Posted: 03 Nov 2015 11:19 PM PST

Prime Minister of Bhutan Tshering Tobgay addresses a plenary meeting of the United Nations Sustainable Development Summit 2015 at the United Nations headquarters in Manhattan, New York, September 25, 2015. (Photo: Andrew Kelly / Reuters)

Prime Minister of Bhutan Tshering Tobgay addresses a plenary meeting of the United Nations Sustainable Development Summit 2015 at the United Nations headquarters in Manhattan, New York, September 25, 2015. (Photo: Andrew Kelly / Reuters)

NEW DELHI — People in Bhutan are happier now than they were five years ago, according to a survey of social wellbeing released by the tiny Himalayan kingdom that, among other things, measures whether they are getting enough sleep.

Mostly Buddhist Bhutan, wedged between China and India, launched the Gross National Happiness (GNH) index in 2010 to include indicators ignored by conventional GDP—the monetary value of all goods and services produced in a country.

These range from quality-of-life indicators like leisure time and forest cover to whether people experience negative emotions like anger and envy.

Addressing a conference on GNH in the capital Thimphu on Tuesday, Prime Minister Lyonchoen Tshering Tobgay said the index inched up to 0.756 this year from 0.743 in 2010, but that he did not know yet what was a good growth rate.

The constitutional monarchy's goal is for every citizen to be "extensively or deeply happy," compared with the current figure of 43.4 percent.

"We saw some modest gains in areas such as living standards, health and time use," Tobgay said, according to a copy of his speech, adding that 7 percent more Bhutanese got enough sleep in 2015 than in 2010.

"But in other areas such as community vitality and psychological wellbeing indicators, we actually seem to lose ground."

The gross national income of Bhutan—which until the 1960s was an isolated rural society with no currency, telephones, schools, hospitals or public services—has been consistently higher than that of South Asia as a whole, according to World Bank data from 2006 to 2014.

But Rajesh Kharat, who teaches South Asian studies at New Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University and advises the government of Bhutan, says GNH's benefits have been confined to towns where communication is better.

"GNH has become internationally popular but yet to reach a single person in the villages," Kharat said.

"The main thing is education. Most of the people in rural areas have not really understood whether Bhutan is a monarchy or a democracy."

Tobgay too said he was troubled that the improvement in the GNH was strongest in towns instead of "our fields and valleys and hamlets high up in the mist," a worrying sign for the landlocked country. More than half its 349,000 labor force still works in agriculture.

"We must find ways of energizing GNH in rural areas, so young people build their careers and families in our beautiful villages as mature modern men and women, and don't only yearn for the city lights," he said.

The post Bhutanese Getting More Sleep, Lifting Happiness Index appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

China’s Vice President Pledges Support in Rare Afghanistan Visit

Posted: 03 Nov 2015 09:28 PM PST

Chinese Vice President Li Yuanchao, left, and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani attend a signing ceremony of mutual agreements in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Nov. 3, 2015. (Photo: Ahmad Masood / Reuters)

Chinese Vice President Li Yuanchao, left, and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani attend a signing ceremony of mutual agreements in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Nov. 3, 2015. (Photo: Ahmad Masood / Reuters)

KABUL, Afghanistan — China's vice president pledged infrastructure and security support for Afghanistan on Tuesday, signing several deals during a rare high-level Chinese visit to Kabul.

China says it does not seek to fill a void left by a drawdown of most foreign troops in Afghanistan at the end of last year, but has promised to play a "huge" commercial role in helping rebuild the country, where the Taliban seek to re-establish their Islamist regime.

Some experts, however, argue that the benefits of Chinese aid and investment in Afghanistan have yet to fully materialize amid the deteriorating security situation there.

Chinese Vice President Li Yuanchao told Afghan President Ashraf Ghani that Beijing would provide 500 million yuan (US$79 million) this year to help build housing in the capital Kabul.

"China is willing to help Afghanistan formulate infrastructure plans to strengthen interconnectedness and intercommunication with surrounding countries," Li said in a speech that was broadcast on Afghan state television.

Ghani said the funds will help build 10,000 residential apartments in Kabul, and that China also pledged to provide "special security devices" to scan vehicles entering the capital.

"Unfortunately two countries which are committed to peace and stability are in danger from regional and international terrorism," Ghani said in comments that were also carried on television.

"Our discussions were based on how to bring under control and eliminate those ominous phenomena which are obstacles to stability, prosperity and cooperation in the region," Ghani said, calling China "a factor to bring peace in Afghanistan."

Trouble at Home

It was unclear if the deals went beyond the billions of yuan in commitments China announced last fall when Ghani made his first trip abroad as president to Beijing.

Li's trip had not been publicly announced in advance, though it is not unusual for senior foreign officials not to give prior notice of their visits to Afghanistan for security reasons.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Kabul in 2014. Former Chinese domestic security chief Zhou Yongkang, who was felled in a domestic political scandal, visited in 2012 and signed deals to help train and equip Afghan police.

China has become increasingly concerned about what it calls extremists and separatists in its western region of Xinjiang, where violence has killed hundreds in recent years, and sees security in Afghanistan as key to stability at home.

Rights groups, however, blame the unrest in Xinjiang on frustration of the largely Muslim Uighur people from the region over China's controls on their culture and religion, charges Beijing denies.

The post China's Vice President Pledges Support in Rare Afghanistan Visit appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Taiwan, Chinese Presidents to Meet for First Time Since ’49

Posted: 03 Nov 2015 09:18 PM PST

Activists shout slogans to protest against the meeting between Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou and Chinese President Xi Jinping while police officers stand guard in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei, Taiwan, on Nov. 4, 2015. (Photo: Pichi Chuang / Reuters)

Activists shout slogans to protest against the meeting between Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou and Chinese President Xi Jinping while police officers stand guard in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei, Taiwan, on Nov. 4, 2015. (Photo: Pichi Chuang / Reuters)

BEIJING — The presidents of China and Taiwan will meet this weekend for the first time since civil war divided their lands 66 years ago, their governments said Wednesday, a highly symbolic move that reflects quickly improving relations between the formerly bitter Cold War foes.

The meeting Saturday in Singapore between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Taiwanese counterpart Ma Ying-jeou could be China's last to press its case for closer economic and, ultimately political ties, before Taiwan elects a new president and legislature in January that could put the brakes on Ma's pro-China initiatives.

For Ma's ruling Nationalists, who have been lagging at the polls, it could boost their credentials for driving progress in relations with China, but also carries the risk of appearing too close to Beijing, further damaging their chances with skeptical voters.

Presidents of the two sides have not met since Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists lost the Chinese civil war to Mao Zedong's Communists and the Nationalists rebased in Taiwan 160 kilometers (100 miles) away in 1949. The two sides have been separately ruled since then, with Taiwan evolving into a freewheeling democracy. China insists that the two sides eventually reunite, by force if necessary.

Confirmation of the meeting from the Chinese cabinet's Taiwan Affairs Office came hours after the Taiwanese side announced the meeting earlier Wednesday.

The two would be meeting in their capacity as "leaders of the two sides" of the Taiwan Strait, office director Zhang Zhijun was quoted as saying in a news release posted on the office's website.

That appeared to afford them equal status, possibly an effort to blunt criticism from the pro-independence opposition in Taiwan who accuse Ma's Nationalist Party of pandering to China's ruling Communists.

"This is a pragmatic arrangement under the situation of the irresolution of cross-strait political differences on the basis of the one-China principle," Zhang said, a reference to Beijing's insistence that Taiwan and the mainland are part of a single Chinese nation.

The two sides never talked formally until Ma, president since 2008, set aside old hostilities to allow lower-level official meetings. China and Taiwan have signed 23 deals covering mainly trade, transit and investment, binding Taiwan closer to its top trading partner and the world's second-largest economy.

Taiwanese presidential spokesman Charles Chen said in a statement Wednesday that the two would exchange ideas about relations but not sign any deals.

The choice of Singapore as venue was significant because the Southeast Asian city-state with an ethnic Chinese majority population has strong relations with both Taiwan and China and serves as neutral ground.

Singapore hosted breakthrough talks between unofficial Taiwanese and Chinese negotiators in 1992 that established a formula whereby they acknowledge that there is only one China, of which Taiwan is a part, but differ on the exact interpretation.

Although Beijing insists on the so-called "1992 consensus" as the basis for talks, Taiwan's main opposition Democratic Progressive Party has refused to embrace it, calling it meaningless and unrepresentative of popular sentiment on the island.

Ma is stepping down as president next year after his maximum two terms, and the DPP's candidate Tsai Ing-wen is considered the front-runner to replace him. A DPP victory could prompt a sweeping reassessment of its Taiwan polices by Beijing, which has hoped that economic inducements would lead to greater acceptance of eventual political unification.

Ma's government has come under increasing criticism at home for cozying up to China, amid fears Beijing will eventually leverage economic relations to exert more power over the island.

Such sentiments helped the DPP to a landslide victory a year ago in local elections, raising the possibility it might win not only the presidency but also a majority in legislative elections also being held Jan. 16.

Given the chances of a Nationalist defeat, China is likely to proceed cautiously to avoid further alienating Taiwanese voters.

Xi warned Taiwan in 2013 against putting off political differences from generation to generation. China has long advocated a Hong Kong-style one-country, two-system form of joint rule, in which Beijing controls Taiwan but the island of 23 million retains control of its political, legal and economic affairs.

That approach has little currency in Taiwan, where most favor the current state of de-facto independence.

The statement from Ma's spokesman said the two presidents will meet to "solidify Taiwan-mainland relations and keep the status quo across the Taiwan Strait."

"To hold a meeting across the Taiwan Strait is the consistent goal of leaders on both sides," Ma's spokesman said in the statement. "President Ma recently has repeated many times that 'at the right time and on the right occasion and in the right capacity,' he would not rule out a meeting."

Taiwanese officials planned to hold a news conference about the Singapore meeting later Wednesday, and Ma planned to hold one on Thursday.

In Washington, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said the United States would welcome steps taken on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to try to reduce tensions and improve relations, but added, "we'll have to see what actually comes out of the meeting."

Ma is likely hoping for some reassurance from Xi over the use of force and closer economic ties that could help Nationalist Presidential candidate Eric Chu in the polls, said Hong Kong Chinese politics expert Willy Lam. Xi, for his part, likewise hopes a friendly, non-threatening meeting could give the Nationalists a boost, while showing a Chinese domestic audience that he could be the best bet in decades for achieving unification.

"This could be good for his reputation and a feather in his cap," said Lam.

While the meeting is meant to showcase the Nationalist's adeptness at dealing with China, it carries significant risks for the party, said Sean King, senior vice president with the consultancy Park Strategies in New York and a frequent commentator on Asian affairs.

"This meeting will only hurt the Nationalists at home, as it will cause them to even more be seen as Beijing's preferred Taiwan party," King said. "This could be the mainland's last chance to liaise with the Nationalist Party, while it's in power, for years to come."

The post Taiwan, Chinese Presidents to Meet for First Time Since '49 appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Spurred by Burma Radicals, Thai Buddhists Push for State Religion Status

Posted: 03 Nov 2015 09:07 PM PST

 Buddhist monks sit during a news conference by the radical Buddhist group Ma Ba Tha at their head office in Rangoon, October 2, 2015. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

Buddhist monks sit during a news conference by the radical Buddhist group Ma Ba Tha at their head office in Rangoon, October 2, 2015. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

BANGKOK — A campaign to enshrine Buddhism as Thailand's state religion has been galvanized by a radical Buddhist movement in neighboring Burma that is accused of stoking religious tension, the leader of the Thai bid said.

Experts say the campaign could appeal to Thailand's military junta, which is struggling for popularity 18 months after staging a coup, and tap into growing anti-Muslim sentiment in a country that prides itself on religious tolerance.

While Buddhists form an overwhelming majority in both countries, Thailand has avoided the nationwide religious violence that has killed hundreds of people in Burma, most of them Muslims.

Now, Thai campaigners want Buddhism to be made the country's official religion in a new constitution.

They draw inspiration from Ma Ba Tha, a powerful monk-led group that pushed Burma's government to pass a raft of pro-Buddhist legislation.

"What happened in Burma confirms our suspicions that Buddhism is threatened by various subtle means," said Thai campaigner Banjob Bannaruji, who chairs the Committee to Promote Buddhism as the State Religion.

Banjob said Thai Buddhists have pushed for the state religion law for many decades, but Burma's example had spurred them to speed up "concrete efforts to make it happen".

Thailand's constitution was scrapped after the military seized power in May 2014 and handpicked a committee to write a new one. It must pass a referendum before a general election, possibly in 2017, can restore a semblance of democracy.

A previous attempt to include Buddhism as the state religion in the 2007 constitution, written after an earlier military coup, went nowhere.

But campaigners stand a better chance this time round, said Ekachai Chainuvati, a constitutional law expert at Siam University in Bangkok.

Adopting Buddhism as a state religion could give the constitution more popular appeal and improve its chances of passing a referendum, he said.

Amorn Wanichwiwatana, spokesman for the Constitution Drafting Committee, said he could not comment on the likelihood of the idea being adopted.

"But we have to listen to every suggestion," he said.

'Neglected Religion'

Burma's military-backed government this year passed four so-called "race and religion protection" laws at Ma Ba Tha's behest. Human rights groups say the laws discriminate against Muslims and women.

While Ma Ba Tha's influence has grown, Thai Buddhism has been shaken by scandal. Monks have been accused of stealing, hoarding narcotics or having sex, prompting many to call for an overhaul of the religion.

The state religion law would allow future governments to better oversee monks and reform a "neglected religion," said campaigner Banjob.

His group plans to collect a million signatures at religious functions and via the internet to petition the Constitution Drafting Committee.

Government statistics do not suggest a religion in decline.

In the past decade, the number of Buddhist temples rose by 15 percent to about 39,000. Thailand has about 350,000 monks.

Even so, said Somchai Surachatri, spokesman for the National Office of Buddhism, a government agency tasked with nurturing the religion, Buddhism could one day be "devoured."

He spoke of receiving text messages warning that Muslims were buying up land to build mosques in every Thai province.

"That's why Buddhists have been uneasy and feel the need to protect their religion," he said.

Such remarks carry echoes of Ma Ba Tha, which claims Islam is eclipsing Buddhism in Burma.

Sunai Phasuk, a Thailand researcher for Human Rights Watch, said there was "an increasing sense of suspicion" towards Muslims.

Recent protests by monks and laypeople have halted the construction of mosques and a halal food factory in northern Thailand.

Also driving anti-Muslim sentiment, said Sunai, was a conflict in southern Thailand between government forces and ethnic Malay Muslim insurgents that has killed about 6,500 people since 2004.

The murder of monks by insurgents deserves an equally pitiless response, believes Aphichat Promjan, a monk who teaches at Wat Benjamabophit, a famous Bangkok temple.

For every monk killed "a mosque should be burned, starting from the northern part of Thailand southwards," Aphichat wrote on Facebook on Oct. 29.

The post, accompanied by gruesome images, has been shared or liked almost 2,000 times, but it also sparked disdain.

"I don't agree with this violent idea, which is like pouring fuel onto fire," one person commented in Thai.

The post Spurred by Burma Radicals, Thai Buddhists Push for State Religion Status appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

National News

National News


USDP denies rumours of U Shwe Mann dismissal

Posted: 04 Nov 2015 07:00 AM PST

The Union Solidarity and Development Party has dismissed as a rumour a report that Thura U Shwe Mann had been dismissed from the party, saying that it appeared "because the election is getting nearer".

State hluttaws: new centres of power?

Posted: 04 Nov 2015 02:18 AM PST

A strong showing by ethnic parties on November 8 could pressure Nay Pyi Taw into granting more authority to state parliaments

‘When Kayah is peaceful again, people will return’: U Aung Min

Posted: 04 Nov 2015 01:55 AM PST

Shadaw is one of the country's smallest constituencies, with just over 4000 voters. Yet it is also the setting for a curious battle between the USDP, the NLD and a key ally of President U Thein Sein, U Aung Min, who leads the government's peace negotiations. In his campaign office, U Aung Min tells senior reporter Wa Lone about the challenges of canvassing in a township where roads are often impassable in wet weather, armed ethnic groups remain active and few of the residents understand Myanmar language.

Ten battleground townships to watch

Posted: 04 Nov 2015 01:42 AM PST

Some constituencies' results were predictable even before campaigning began, but with just four days before the vote, others remain too close to call. Fierce competition, a divided populace – some areas will come down to the wire, and if all fall one way, the rest of the country is sure to follow. We asked chief political reporter Ei Ei Toe Lwin to select 10 bellwethers she'll be keeping a close eye on as the results roll in.

Armed groups detail Pangkham demands

Posted: 03 Nov 2015 02:30 PM PST

A summit of leaders of armed ethnic groups outside the nationwide ceasefire agreement ended yesterday with demands for a political dialogue with Myanmar's next government and a peace process that would also involve China's direct participation.

Tatmadaw artillery sends more fleeing from Wan Hai

Posted: 03 Nov 2015 02:30 PM PST

Terrified villagers driven from their homes by heavy weapons fire are now facing the loss of their livelihoods. Many of the civilians displaced by the fighting in southern Shan State are farmers, and they are too afraid of the continuing artillery barrage in the conflict zone to harvest their crops.

President makes a stop in Rakhine State

Posted: 03 Nov 2015 02:30 PM PST

President U Thein Sein yesterday paid a visit to the Rakhine State capital where his Union Solidarity and Development Party is facing a tough challenge from the ethnic opposition the Arakan National Party.

President warns of Arab Spring-style violence

Posted: 03 Nov 2015 02:30 PM PST

A video posted on the Facebook page of President U Thein Sein raising the spectre of bloodshed and chaos akin to the Arab Spring aftermath if his party loses power on November 8 has drawn an angry response on social media.

Tourist numbers slump by up to 50% ahead of vote

Posted: 03 Nov 2015 02:30 PM PST

Bemoaning a fall in clients of up to 50 percent, travel agency operators are crossing their fingers for an orderly election next month. Amid booking cancellations and a slump in interest, many agents are hoping for a rebound next year, under a stable government and a new president.

Eight bodies recovered, scores still missing

Posted: 03 Nov 2015 02:30 PM PST

At least eight passengers, including seven women, are dead and as many as 70 are still missing following the sinking of a boat on the Chindwin River in Sagaing Region. The Ya Zar Tun sank at about 5:30am on November 1 on its way from Monywa to Sae Zin.

Shan Herald Agency for News

Shan Herald Agency for News


Panghsang Summit Meeting, Joint Monitoring Committee and Military Offensives

Posted: 04 Nov 2015 12:25 AM PST

As the 11 non-signatory ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) met in Panghsang, also known as Pangkham, the United Wa State Army's (UWSA) capital, from 1 to 3 November,on the heels of the  Joint Monitoring Committee (JMC) meeting from 29 to 31 October, in Yangon, to draw up a military Code of Conduct (CoC) between the 8 EAOs, which have signed the government initiated nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA), and the Burma Army, the war in Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) controlled areas that have started with the government offensives, on 6 October, goes on unabated, while most are busy preparing for the elections, scheduled to be held on 8 November.

Although it seems that these happenings hardly have anything to do with each other, a closer look shows that they are, in fact, a chain of process with linkage with ramification that cannot be separated from one another.

Joint Monitoring Committee

Firstly, the partial-ceasefire, dubbed NCA, which is initiated by the regime, is guided by the treaty's guideline and accordingly, through the Joint Implementation Coordination Meetings after the NCA signing on 15 October, the Joint Monitoring Committee (JMC) and the Union Political Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) were formed.

The meeting, attended by the EAOs and the regime, formed a Union-level JMC, in a three day meeting from 29 to 31 October, and hoped to finish and finalize the military CoC within a month, according to the Myanmar Peace Center (MPC).

According to the press conference, the Union-level joint monitoring committee has been formed at the three-day meeting with Lt-Gen Yar Pyae appointed as chairman, Maj gen Saw Isaac Po of Karen National Union (KNU) as first vice-chairman, Dr Sui Khar of Chin National Front (CNF) as Secretary and Col Wunna Aung as Secretary-1.2.

Apart from that, the two sides have agreed, an honourable civilians would be elected to the post of vice-chairman (2)

The Myanmar Times report of 1 November wrote that boundaries had been set with some groups earlier but with others it is going to start soon, said the Director of MPC at a press conference after a Joint Monitoring Committee's first meeting in Yangon. He said the mechanisms will allow both sides to deal with possible clashes during the transition period before the monitoring process comes into effect.

Restoration Council of Shan State's (RCSS) advisor and Director of the Pyidaungsu Institute for Peace and Dialogue, Khuensai Jaiyen,  who attended the JMC, at the end of the meeting said that the public would be encouraged to involve in the ceasefire monitoring process and that there are many difficulties to overcome, in making the mechanism works.

He said: "At the moment, only Union-level JMC could be formed. Formation of State and Regional JMCs are still needed. Under them Local-level organizations also have to be formed. These are difficulties that (we) have to encounter. It is because we have to build a non-existence mechanism and in doing so, we have to try to involve the public itself. Although this issue seems to be easy, in practice it won't be and has to take time."

While the terms of reference (TOR) for JMCs should take a month to be finalized and approved, the political dialogue will have to begin within 90 days of signing the NCA. It is not clear if the time schedule could be kept, according to the treaty signed on 15 October.

Panghsang Summit Meeting

Secondly, the Panghsang summit meeting, to map out on how to go about with the political bargaining for the EAOs, was called for the second time – the first was in May this year - by the UWSA, on the heels of the Union-level JMC formation.

The 11 EAOs that didn't sign the NCA on 15 October, met from 1 to 3 November, just a few days before the nationwide elections.

The groups participated in Panghsang meet were Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), SSPP, New Mon State Party (NMSP), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), Arakan Army (AA), Karen National Defence Organization (KNDO), Kayan Newland Party (KNLP) and UWSA. The National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Kaplan (NSCN -K) was not able to attend the meeting, due to the long distance, according to the host of the meeting.

On the first day, at the capital of the semi-autonomous Wa Special Region in north-east Shan State, Panghsang, opening speech of Bao Youxiang, the chairman of the UWSA was read out by a spokesperson. 

The speech thanked the ethnic leaders for enduring the hard struggle for the future of the country, despite their advanced age and praised them for their noble deeds. However, during about half a year, since May, the situation has not progressed as the ethnic leaders have hoped for and instead, the Burma army, also known as Tatmadaw, has continuously employed military pressures on some of the EAOs. Ten of thousands have to flee their homes, endure hunger and become victims of contagious disease. And although nationwide ceasefire negotiation has taken about two years, the main basic demand of the EAOs was not entertained, resolved and no promise was also given to do so.

It went on to point out that the constitutional amendment was rejected and by steadfastly clinging to the 2008 Constitution, the regime has systematically controlled the EAOs. Although all-inclusive ceasefire signing should have occurred, it has not materialized till today.

The speech spelled out the UWSA position as:
1.                   Endorses the holding of the nation's November elections with transparency, equality and smoothness
2.                   Urges any in-coming government from any party, after the election, to respect and take seriously the ethnic minorities rights and privileges and solve the present problems through political means and not militarily
3.                   Determines to cooperate with any new government from any party for the implementation of peaceful negotiation, as soon as possible
4.                   Urges the new government to strive for national reconciliation and genuine federal union, with Panglong spirit

It finally called on all EAOs to strive in unison for the country's development, ethnic nationalities' basic rights and federal union based on Panglong spirit.

Echoing almost the UWSA position, the closing 7 point statement of the EAOs leaders' second summit meeting of 3 November outlined the following:

1.                   Urges that the 2015 nationwide elections be transparently, freely and fairly conducted, under the auspices of international organizations including the U.N.;
2.                   Urges the present government to stop the Tatmadaw's offensives on EAOs during the transitional period and develop opportunity for national reconciliation;
Urges any in-coming government from any party, after the election, to respect and take seriously the ethnic minorities rights and privileges and solve the present problems through political means and not militarily;
3.                   Wishes to cooperate with the new government stemming from the general elections for the implementation of nationwide political discussion, as soon as possible;
4.                   Encourages the in-coming new government to relentlessly strive for the rebuilding of a federal union based on national reconciliation, equality and rights of self-determination through Panglong Promises and Spirit;
5.                   Urges, in order to resolve the military conflict in the northern and eastern Burma, the government, Tatmadaw, concerned EAOs and Chinese government including Chinese military personnel by forming a representative organization (committee), so that problems along the China-Burma border could be resolved, leading to peace and tranquillity;
6.                   Agrees that the EAOs employ coordinating officials, so that unity and mutual coordination could be established and promoted to a higher level;
7.                   Urges the in-coming, future government and the country's leadership to cooperate with EAOs, parliament and political forces outside the parliament, in the amendment of the 2008 Constitution. (Note: Translated by the writer from "Ethnic Armed Organizations' Leadership Second Round Table Summit Meeting" – Pangkham, 3 November 2015)

Aung Myint spokesman of the UWSA interpreted Chairman Bao Youxiang's speech saying: "Our ethnic armed groups need to prepare for how to deal with future political challenges. There will be many political arguments and political attacks, but there will be no more bloodshed from this political fight. Our ethnic minority groups need to have unity and then confront these political challenges," according to The Irrawaddy report of 2 October.

Touching on the same issue, Nai Han Tha, Vice-Chairman of the NMSP, who is one of the negotiator in the Panghsang summit meeting, said: " Whoever comes to power, resolving internal peace cannot be left out. Without resolution, our country wouldn't change and can't be peaceful. That's why (we) hope and would try to negotiate with any in-coming government. But it depends on the opinion of the government. In case they don't want to negotiate, it is another thing. (But) we will keep on trying because our country's problems could only be resolved through political means."

Military Offensives on SSPP/SSA

Thirdly, the Burma army or Tatmadaw offensives on SSPP/SSA is a direct political fallout stemming from the refusal of not signing the government initiated NCA on 15 October, although provocative attacks by the Tatmadaw have already started since 6 October.

The military offensives abruptly escalated after the NCA signing and have been ongoing ever since, forcing some 6000 villagers to flee their homes. Besides, the human causalities  were said to be in hundred from the government side and some 20 or so from the SSPP/SSA quarters, according to Shan sources.

On top of this, the Union Election Commission (UEC) declared four Townships – Mong Hsu, Keh, Tangyan and Hopang - to be no-vote areas, where the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) is strong and sure to win the elections. It should be noted that the SSPP/SSA openly endorsed the SNLD, while the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP), the rival party, is rumoured and even hinted to be a possible coalition partner of the regime's party.

And thus, it looks like that the regime is achieving a double effect by waging war and   turning the SNLD political power base into no-vote areas and at the same time, pressuring the SSPP/SSA to yield to the regime's initiated NCA.

On 30 October, Sao Pang Fa, head of the SSPP/SSA issued a statement in Shan language addressing the rank and file of the Shan State Army to be ready for the Tatmadaw's onslaught and to resist "spear against spear and sword against sword".

Assessment

The JMC outlook is not rosy, given only some 10,000 out of 100,000 EAOs' troopers have inked the partial-ceasefire, amounting to only 10% of the whole resistance forces, and the country effectively been categorized into war and ceasefire zones.

It is a military CoC, which would not cover all the majority EAOs' controlled areas and the overlapping territories among the EAOs would make it hard to implement the ceasefire for the JMC.

The real flaw of the whole process is not being a nationwide and all-inclusive ceasefire agreement, while the lack of third neutral party, with the teeth of enforcement, to monitor the ceasefire, would be the weakest point in trying to make the partial-ceasefire works.

For now, Panghsang summit meeting is fixed only to negotiate with the in-coming, new regime and is gearing up to build ethnic unity and get ready for political bargaining phase. But unconfirmed news, said to be stemming from Burma and Thai military quarters, said that the China's People's Liberation Army has recently shipped tons of ammunition and military hardware to Panghsang.

If this is really the case, the mini-Cold-War might be in the making and all concerned stakeholders should reassess their positions, if it is worthwhile to let the country plunge into such a pit hole.

While the regime, in trying to solicit the West support, should not overplay by conducting military adventures in the ethnic homelands, with the pretext of protecting the country's sovereignty and national unity, and trumpeting the communist-ghost-threat rhetoric, like President Thein Sein had done just a few days ago, while camouflaging his election campaign for the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the ethnic groups should also weigh the danger of a mini-Cold-War type conflict, which would be hard to get out, once it is started.

At this point in time, the two key words that all stakeholders, particularly the regime, should have in mind are "military de-escalation" and "political accommodation". For only this would bring back a culture of political negotiation and dialogue in resolving the problems.

Either way, there is not much the stakeholders could do at this election moment, other than to wait for the in-coming new government, which will be burdened with the unfinished legacy of Thein Sein's partial-ceasefire agreement and eventually have to tackle the problem to really become a nationwide ceasefire treaty, one way or the other.


The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU) - Editor