Monday, March 7, 2016

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine


ANP Leadership Publically Criticizes Party’s Internal Divisions

Posted: 07 Mar 2016 05:35 AM PST

Elected Arakan State parliament members from the ANP posed for a photo outside the party headquarters in Sittwe, the state capital. (Photo: Arakan National Party / Facebook)

Elected Arakan State parliament members from the ANP posed for a photo outside the party headquarters in Sittwe, the state capital. (Photo: Arakan National Party / Facebook)

RANGOON – Seven Arakan National Party (ANP) central executive committee members held a press conference on Sunday in Rangoon to highlight their dissatisfaction with recent actions of their party.

ANP Lower House lawmaker Ba Shein, who was not at the press conference but spoke out in support of it, attributed the group's internal divisions to emotional volatility within the leadership, and urged them to instead engage in dialogue to overcome differences.

He cited the conference's purpose as "to unveil to the public the reality of the ANP."

After winning a majority of seats in the Arakan State parliament in the 2015 general election, in January 2016 the party declared that it would not join any coalition with the country's overall winner, the National League for Democracy (NLD). Rather, the ANP stated that it would stand as an opposition party unless it was allowed to form its own state government.

ANP vice chairperson Phoe Minn accused those who hosted the press conference of pushing for the disintegration of the party. He pointed out that although the ANP's statement on self-government had been public for two months, no official objections had previously been voiced.

According to official party procedure, the ANP will hold an investigation into the actions of the members who organized the press conference.

"Our citizens will decide who was right or wrong," Phoe Minn said.

Others outside of the ANP have recently criticized what they see as apparent disunity within the ethnic Arakanese party. Voters are frustrated by the formation of divisions so soon after the election. "The ink on my pinkie isn't even gone," wrote one individual on an online forum.

Several of the members who organized Sunday's press conference were once members from the Arakan League for Democracy (ALD), which later merged with the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP) in 2014 to form the ANP in hopes of consolidating votes in the 2015 legislative election. The party was able to secure 45 out of the 77 state parliament seats it contested.

Success within the state parliament was once viewed as an important step toward the party's goal of getting an ANP parliament member appointed as the state's chief minister.

The post ANP Leadership Publically Criticizes Party's Internal Divisions appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Affected Locals Tell New Govt to Solve Old Problems at Dawei SEZ

Posted: 07 Mar 2016 05:16 AM PST

 Local civil society groups and affected villagers discuss the Dawei special economic zone on Monday in Rangoon. (Photo: Nyein Nyein / The Irrawaddy)

Local civil society groups and affected villagers discuss the Dawei special economic zone on Monday in Rangoon. (Photo: Nyein Nyein / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Villagers affected by the Dawei special economic zone (SEZ) and deep-sea port in Burma's southeast are urging the Burmese, Thai and Japanese governments to solve existing problems related to the project before pushing ahead with its implementation.

At a public forum organized by local residents affected by the Dawei SEZ on Monday in Rangoon, local civil society groups bolstered that argument with calls for improved transparency on the 204.5-square-kilometer infrastructure project and greater public inclusion.

Since implementation began, the SEZ has affected livelihoods in 20-36 villages, in which 22,000 to 43,000 people reside, according to a 2014 report by the Dawei Development Association (DDA), one of the CSOs in attendance on Monday.

Progress on the SEZ in Tenasserim Division has been slow-going in recent years, but with a new government soon coming to power in Burma and Japanese support for the project secured last year, locals are concerned that development will accelerate in the months to come.

Saw Frankie Abreu, the director of the Tenasserim River and Indigenous People's Network (TRIP NET), said the new Burmese government's overall attitude toward economic development would be crucial in determining whether it would listen to the public or not.

Since its initiation in 2008, the project has faced criticism due to its potential environmental and social impacts. Its implementation has been delayed in part due to local resistance, but also difficulties in securing funding.

It is being backed by the Burmese, Thai and Japanese governments.

The CSOs on Monday highlighted impacts of the project that included loss of lands at the project site and due to related road infrastructure; skyrocketing land prices; negative effects on women's security; and locals' loss of traditional livelihoods.

Su Su Swe, the general secretary of the Tavoyan Women's Union (TWU), said: "Development projects should not damage the public's lives, but we still have witnessed human rights abuses … which were common under military rule, and still today."

Not only facing loss of livelihoods, some locals from Char Kham village, at the geographic heart of the project, have also faced imprisonment for attempting to protect their lands.

Hla Thein was one of three villagers imprisoned for one month in 2014 after he and two others refused to leave their fishing village in 2012. Prior to his imprisonment, Hla Thein endured a 12-month ordeal of repeated court appearances before a verdict was finally reached, his wife Aye Cho told The Irrawaddy.

Char Kham was a coastal village where locals had depended on fishing to earn a living for years, but had to resettle to nearby Htein Gyi village when the project began, in the process forcing some of the relocated to seek alternative livelihoods.

"I wish I could be a fisherman again," recalled Hla Thein, who had caught fish in the sea for nearly two decades before changing to his current job as a day-laborer. He added that he had been able to support his wife and two children with his fishing job, "but now everything has changed."

Even farther afield, lives too have been affected by the SEZ's development. In Thabuchaung village, some 59 kilometers away from the main project area, villagers lost land as a road was paved to link-up the SEZ and deep-sea port. Despite compensation being offered in 2012, many of the affected refused to take it, said Saw Ke Doh, a Tabuchaung villager.

The post Affected Locals Tell New Govt to Solve Old Problems at Dawei SEZ appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Sustained Fighting as Burma Army ‘Everywhere’ in N. Shan State: TNLA

Posted: 07 Mar 2016 03:58 AM PST

 Soldiers from the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) are seen in the village of Kyauk Phyu, Kyaukme Township, on Feb. 18, 2016. (Photo: Lawi Weng / The Irrawaddy)

Soldiers from the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) are seen in the village of Kyauk Phyu, Kyaukme Township, on Feb. 18, 2016. (Photo: Lawi Weng / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — The Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) has reported at least 16 clashes over just the last week between its troops and the Burma Army, with the ethnic rebel group claiming to have killed dozens of the latter's soldiers in the northern Shan State fighting this month.

Tensions in the area remain high amid a large-scale Burma Army offensive in territory claimed by the TNLA, leading to clashes that began on March 1. In the latest exchange of hostilities, fighting broke out at Kyaukme Township's Kyauk Phyu and Bar Lane villages on Monday morning.

"Most fighting, in terms of duration, lasted less than one hour. But one fight yesterday nearby in Mong Yu village lasted three-and-a-half hours," Mai Aike Kyaw, a TNLA spokesman, told The Irrawaddy on Monday.

According to the TNLA, about 2,000 Burma Army troops have been deployed to the conflict zone, a territory that spans several townships in northern Shan State including Kyaukme, Kutkai, Namtu, Manton, Namhsan and Mongmit.

"They [Burma Army troops] are everywhere. Our troops try to avoid them as much as we can, but our troops have to attack them sometimes as they come near to our base," he said.

Dozens of Burma Army soldiers were killed, while some members of the TNLA were also wounded in the recent clashes, according to the TNLA spokesman.

"Among our troops, there were some wounded from the fighting, but no one was killed. Their side suffered high causalities on March 3 and 6. Dozens of them were killed," he said.

Meanwhile, hundreds of civilians have been displaced in northern Shan State, with populations especially affected in Kyaukme Township, where more than 3,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) have fled recent fighting between the TNLA and another ethnic armed group, the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army-South (RCSS/SSA-S).

The two sides split last year over a so-called "nationwide" ceasefire agreement that eight non-state armed groups signed in October. The RCSS was a signatory, while several other groups including the TNLA were not.

Fighting between the RCSS and TNLA first flared in late November and has persisted in the months since, prompting the Burma Army to enter the fray, ostensibly to quell the violence and bring stability to the region.

The Burma Army has 10 light infantry divisions, seven of which have been deployed in northern Shan State, according to Shan Herald Agency for News (S.H.A.N.), an ethnic media outlet.

The post Sustained Fighting as Burma Army 'Everywhere' in N. Shan State: TNLA appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Smuggled Weapons Seized in Thai Border Town

Posted: 07 Mar 2016 03:24 AM PST

Thai police and army pose with seized weapons and ammunition in Mae Sot on Saturday. (Photo: Karen National Media / Facebook)

Thai police and army pose with seized weapons and ammunition in Mae Sot on Saturday. (Photo: Karen National Media / Facebook)

Thai authorities seized a stash of smuggled weapons in the border town of Mae Sot over the weekend, arms which sources claim could have been bound for one of Burma’s ethnic armies or for gangs operating in the area.

The weapons included ammunition, as well as ten M-16 rifles and seven AK-47 machine guns, models that are frequently used in the region by armed groups fighting against Burmese government forces. The guns in question reportedly belonged to a former police officer in Mae Sot.

Maj Saw Roe, a liaison officer with the Karen National Union (KNU) in Burma's Myawaddy, opposite Mae Sot, said that he only learned of the seizure through Thai media and is not aware of a trade involving the smuggled weapons and the KNU.

"It is hard to say whom the weapons were to be sold to, because we don’t know the case in detail," he said. "There are a lot of gangs on the border and these kinds of smuggled weapons are widely traded."

He also said that it is difficult to know whether the weapons were supposed to be sent to other ethnic armed groups. There are several other ethnic Karen armies operating near the Thai-Burma border, including Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), and KNU/KNLA (Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army) Peace Council.

Weapons smuggling across the Thai-Burma border was once common; the trafficking of drugs also remains well established at the Myawaddy-Mae Sot crossing.

The post Smuggled Weapons Seized in Thai Border Town appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Parsing Prospects for Burma’s Overshadowed VP

Posted: 07 Mar 2016 03:00 AM PST

Military representatives are pictured at Parliament in Naypyidaw in early February. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

Military representatives are pictured at Parliament in Naypyidaw in early February. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — This week, the Burmese people's months-long wait to find out who their next president will be is expected to finally end.

On March 10, the Lower and Upper houses of Parliament as well as lawmakers appointed by the military are due to nominate three vice presidents, with one assuming the country's top post. These names can come from among the ranks of newly seated lawmakers, but can just as easily be individuals from outside the legislature.

The trio will then be put to a ballot in a joint session of the bicameral assembly, with the winner of the most votes becoming Burma's next president. The runners-up will remain vice presidents.

Barring intraparty ructions that virtually no one is anticipating, the presidential candidates nominated by elected members of Parliament's two houses will have the blessing of the Aung San Suu Kyi-led National League for Democracy (NLD), which holds a super-majority approaching 80 percent of elected seats in both chambers.

Speculation in the months since Burma's Nov. 8 general election, which propelled the NLD into its king-making position, has focused on who from the party might get the nod. The most obvious candidate, Suu Kyi herself, is constitutionally barred from assuming the post, making possible stand-in candidates the subject of intense conjecture during the lengthy transition period that has followed the November poll.

Another possible scenario bandied about posits the NLD naming someone from an ethnic political party as a presidential candidate, the theory being that this would be in line with its stated desire to form an inclusive, "national reconciliation" government.

Less attention has focused on the military's choice for its vice president.

The Burma Army maintains an important role in the country's politics, despite the NLD's thumping election win last year. It controls three powerful ministries—Defense, Home Affairs and Border Affairs—in addition to the Constitution reserving 25 percent of seats in the Union Parliament and regional legislatures to military representatives appointed by the commander-in-chief, Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing.

The third presidential candidate, then, is Min Aung Hlaing's to choose.

Brig-Gen Tint San Naing, a spokesperson for military lawmakers in the Lower House, told The Irrawaddy that the military would pick someone who could further the country's development and has the required "vision" on matters of defense, politics, economics and administration.

"Whoever we choose, it will be that kind of person. Only can [a candidate with] those four visions make the country secure and developed," he said.

While the NLD's intentions vis-à-vis the presidency have understandably garnered more attention in recent months, a handful of high-ranking generals have made their way to the fore of less common discussions as to who the military might choose as its man "on the inside" of an NLD administration.

Deputy commander-in-chief Snr-Gen Soe Win; commander-in-chief (Air Force) and special operations coordinator (Army, Navy and Air Force) Gen. Khin Aung Myint; retired Gen. Hla Htay Win; retired Gen. Thura Thet Swe; and retired Lt-Gen Khin Zaw Oo have all been tipped as potential presidential candidates. Rumors of late have had it that current Rangoon Division Chief Minister Myint Swe is also a potential contender.

A former lieutenant-general who was tipped to be selected vice president in 2012, Myint Swe was passed over to fill that unexpected vacancy, as one of his sons was an Australian national. Unconfirmed reports, however, say his son has since been reinstated as a Burmese citizen, which if true would remove that obstacle to his father's nomination.

Other sources close to the military, on the other hand, expect the army chief to choose someone younger than him who is still in active service.

"The commander-in-chief will consider someone his junior as seniority means a lot in the military. That's why he will name someone who will listen to him," said Naing Ye Zaw, a retired lieutenant-colonel.

If that be the case, only two men from the list above are likely to be eligible: Soe Win and Khin Aung Myint, as active-duty generals who graduated from the Defense Services Academy's 22nd and 20th intakes, respectively.

Min Aung Hlaing is a graduate of the elite academy's 19th intake, while Myint Swe would be a nonstarter if the seniority criterion were borne out, given that the former lieutenant-general is four intakes senior to the current commander-in-chief.

Reporting to Whom?

The president "takes precedence over all other persons" in Burma, as per the Constitution's Article 58, a provision that would appear to imply vice presidential subservience.

The peculiar form of "democracy" enshrined in Burma's charter could complicate the hierarchy, however. Will a vice president from the ranks of the military, chosen by that institution for the VP post, answer to an NLD president or fall back on the chain-of-command dictates of Min Aung Hlaing?

This delicate dance between Burma's military and nascent civilian power structures is likely to be further complicated by another question hanging over the new government that will come to power in April: To what extent will an NLD president be able to influence and cooperate with the three powerful ministries controlled by the military?

During the five-year term of outgoing President Thein Sein's government, the question was of little practical significance. The military-led and quasi-civilian camps were viewed as "birds of a feather," given that essentially the entire administration came either from military backgrounds or the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).

Less clear-cut is how this dynamic will play out for the incoming Suu Kyi-led government. Whoever the NLD selects as president, Suu Kyi has already vowed to govern from "above" that individual, and the true nature of the NLD chairwoman's relationship with the top brass is an open question.

Political commentator Yan Myo Thein posited that the military's choice for vice president would be an individual willing to deviate from his civilian higher-up if deemed necessary.

"Generally speaking, I don't think the military vice president will say 'yes' to every case. When it comes to either military issues or reviewing military interests, there would be confrontations," he said.

Technically, vice presidents are not as powerful as the president, but their inclusion on the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), the highest authority in the Burmese government and responsible for the country's security and defense affairs, could make a difference. On the 11-member council, civilian members, including the president, are outnumbered by military representatives, who hold six spots, including the commander-in-chief as well as the vice president appointed by him.

According to the National Defense and Security Council bill that was distributed to Upper House lawmakers in December, Article 14 of the draft gives the president no right to vote on council matters, except to cast a deciding vote in the event of a deadlock. The same article also says that the council must strive to reach a consensus in its decisions, and to accept a majority vote if a unanimous resolution cannot be reached.

"They are taking the upper hand in the NDSC. Guess which side they will be on when it comes to military interests?" said Yan Myo Thein.

Khin Zaw Win of the Tampadipa Institute, an independent think-tank in Burma, agreed that dealing with the military would be challenging for the incoming government, adding that the military's choice for vice president was likely to face a dilemma over whose orders he takes.

"As far as I'm concerned, the incoming government should cleverly handle its relations with the military, for matters ranging from the vice president to NDSC to the three powerful ministries, by appointing someone as an 'advisor' for their relations with the military."

He said that person should be either a serving or recently retried member of the military with a respected reputation and who clearly understands the Burma Army's current mindset as well as wants to see the country developed.

Asked whether Shwe Mann—a former general as well as ex-chairman of the USDP who was purged last year for his close ties to Suu Kyi—might be the best candidate for the post, Khin Zaw Win said this was "unlikely."

"He has been appointed as the chairman for Parliament's legislative commission. Plus, he is not popular among the military personnel. But he could make a recommendation," said the director of the institute.

"The NLD has experts on other issues apart from the Burmese military. If they have one [on military affairs], it would be very helpful," he added.

The Irrawaddy's Htet Naing Zaw contributed reporting from Naypyidaw.

The post Parsing Prospects for Burma's Overshadowed VP appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Central Bank Grants Four More Foreign Bank Licenses

Posted: 07 Mar 2016 02:21 AM PST

A man passes by a branch of Vietnam's Bank for Investment and Development in Hanoi on January 8, 2016. The bank is one of four Asian financial institutions to be awarded a license to operate in Burma. (Photo: Kham / Reuters)

A man passes by a branch of Vietnam’s Bank for Investment and Development in Hanoi on January 8, 2016. The bank is one of four Asian financial institutions to be awarded a license to operate in Burma. (Photo: Kham / Reuters)

RANGOON — The Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) announced on Saturday that it had granted licenses for four more foreign banks from Asia.

The institutions awarded in the March 4 selection include the Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BDIV), the E. Sun Commercial Bank from China, South Korea's Shinhan Bank and the State Bank of India.

The applicants for this second round of licenses came from within a pool of 13 total competitors, including banks from Taiwan and Mauritius.

According to the Central Bank announcement, the preliminary approval they have been granted is valid for 12 months. During this time, successful applicants will have to fulfill commitments made in their applications, ensure functional banking operations and comply with the Central Bank's requirements.

Thein Tun, chairman of the Tun Foundation Bank, said that foreign financial institutions now number more than half of the 25 private banks in Burma.

"Even though the government still doesn't allow retail banking [by foreign institutions], what I want is that they promote local banks more," he said. "Most [local banks] can't make profits to compete with [foreign banks]," he said. "I am concerned that local lenders will lose the game after more foreign banks come in, wherever they are coming from."

The Central Bank is still placing heavy restrictions on foreign bank operations—they are only permitted to engage in wholesale banking with investors from their respective countries, and can open only one branch in Burma.

Zaw Lin Htut, chief executive officer of the Myanmar Payment Union said that he hopes the new licensing will boost trade from the countries in question, but acknowledged that many restrictions still hinder success.

"Limited operations and no clear definite instructions [by the CBM] are the difficulties facing them," he said.

In the first round of selection in 2014, nine banks from China, Australia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Japan were awarded licenses by the Central Bank.

The post Central Bank Grants Four More Foreign Bank Licenses appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

‘No Religion Sanctions Violence Against Women’: Interfaith Leaders

Posted: 07 Mar 2016 01:03 AM PST

Leaders from different religious communities in Burma weigh in on issues of violence and discrimination against women at a Rangoon panel discussion on Saturday. (Photo: Nyein Nyein)

Leaders from different religious communities in Burma weigh in on issues of violence and discrimination against women at a Rangoon panel discussion on Saturday. (Photo: Nyein Nyein)

RANGOON – Religious leaders from four of Burma's major faiths have called for a change in community attitudes in order to end discrimination and violence against women and girls.

On Saturday, days before International Women's Day on March 8, religious leaders served as panelists at a discussion entitled "Step up Action to End Discrimination and Violence against Women and Girls: Reflections from a Religious Perspective." The event was co-organized by UN Women and Religion for Peace (RfP) Myanmar.

Panelists included Dr. Tin Nwe of the Buddhist organization Ratana Metta; Cardinal Charles Bo, the Archbishop of Yangon Archdiocese; Al Haj Aye Lwin, the chief convener of Rangoon's Islamic Centre; and U Hla Tun, the coordinator of the Hindu Sanatan Dharma Swayamsevak Sangh.

No religion has teachings intended to discriminate against women, said the organizers and panellists, who highlighted how their respective religions call for the equal treatment of every human being, regardless of their gender.

Yet violence and sexual assault against women and girls is still prevalent, as well as discrimination against women in the workplace; participants in the discussion said that behavioral changes are key to ending these practices.

Out of more than 100 participants in the panel discussion, women made up the majority and were also joined by foreign diplomats. They emphasized the need for education to improve women's leadership at the decision-making level.

Myint Swe, chairman of Ratana Metta Organization and a panel attendee, said that women's capacity should be utilized beyond the household level.

"Despite it being said that religions praise equality, there is discrimination in reality," Myint Swe said. "We must change those attitudes. It is not an easy task, but we have to raise awareness that a woman should no longer seen as a baby-maker, a cook or someone to be locked in the house. If we keep [women] in the kitchen, our country will remain behind in development."

Ratana Metta is a member of the RfP coalition, which has worked to prevent conflict between different faiths, as well as for the social advancement of women and girls in Burma.

Dr. Than Nwe, of the Myanmar National Human Rights Commission's (MNHRC) Policy and Law section, told The Irrawaddy that a widespread campaign to raise awareness on the issue of gender-based violence and discrimination is much needed within Burmese society.

Like others who participated in the discussion, she said that a change in men's perspectives is crucial in order to educate and empower women.

The post 'No Religion Sanctions Violence Against Women': Interfaith Leaders appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Dateline Irrawaddy: ‘The Major Cause of the Fighting Is Conflict of Interest’

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 11:08 PM PST

Irrawaddy journalists Lawi Weng and J Paing discuss what they found at scenes of recent fierce fighting in northern Shan State, with Burmese edition editor Thalun Zaung Htet.

Irrawaddy journalists Lawi Weng and J Paing discuss what they found at scenes of recent fierce fighting in northern Shan State, with Burmese edition editor Thalun Zaung Htet.

Thalun Zaung Htet: Welcome to Dateline Irrawaddy. This week, we will discuss the recent clashes in northern Shan State, and prospects for peace under a National League for Democracy [NLD] government. Irrawaddy news team members Ko JPaing and Ko Lawi Weng have joined me for the discussion. I'm Irrawaddy's Burmese edition editor Thalun Zaung Htet.

TZH: Both of you covered the clashes in February between the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army-South [RCSS/SSA-S] and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army [TNLA] in Namhsan and Kyaukme in northern Shan State. What did you see?

JPaing: Fierce clashes broke out on February 7, and since then thousands of civilian victims have fled to Kyaukme. When I went to Kyaukme, I found that the number of displaced persons was increasing rather than reducing. The clashes started to ease on February 17 and stopped the following day. So the fighting lasted for 11 days. It is fair to say that this was the longest clash [we've seen] between ethnic armed groups.

I went by motorbike to Tawt San, Nyaung Bin Hla and Nyaung Maung villages in Kyaukme Township. Some villagers alleged that TNLA troops had set their houses alight and tortured them. The TNLA later denied those allegations. There were no [other] eyewitnesses.

Most of the clashes occurred on parts of the main routes linking the southern and northern parts of Shan State. Goods trucks were passing through the area at the time. The three villages I mentioned saw fierce fighting. SSA and TNLA troops are still deployed in those areas now.

TZH: As far as we understand, in the past, serious clashes only occurred between the military and ethnic armed groups. Between ethnic armed groups, there were only skirmishes. Ko Lawi, what do you think is the major reason behind these events?

Lawi Weng: I arrived in Kyaukme on February 17. I found mainly displaced Shan people sheltering in a monastery there. There were also Palaung [Ta'ang] people. The refugees were a pitiful sight. As Ko J Paing has said, some refugees alleged that the TNLA had committed human rights violations.

The next day, I went by motorbike to a TNLA-controlled area. I arrived at Kyaukphyu village, where I found up to 2,500 TNLA troops from Brigade No. 2 stationed. I interviewed the brigade commander, Major Robert. He said the RCSS and the TNLA had co-existed in the region before the signing of the NCA.

TZH: The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement.

LW: He meant that the RCSS had signed the NCA, while the TNLA had not. I then asked Major Robert why the clashes had happened. He said it was because around 300 RCSS troops had entered territory controlled by Brigade No. 2. After the entry, leaders of the two sides held a meeting, since this was the first time such a large number of RCSS troops had entered the area.

Major Robert said the RCSS could not give a strong reason for its troops entering the region. The clashes broke out after Brigade 2 stopped the trespassing troops, he said.

That was one reason for the fighting, but there is a second reason. The TNLA re-emerged in 2011. It existed long before that, but was not permitted to conduct activities by the former government. Meanwhile, Shan groups like the RCSS and the SSPP [Shan State Progressive Party] were active and levied taxes in the region. But now, the TNLA has taken control of certain areas. This has restricted certain activities of the RCSS, mainly the imposition of taxes and the conduct of businesses. The major cause of the fighting is conflict of interest.

Major Robert said Tawt San is a militarily and economically strategic site for the TNLA. Without it, it is impossible for the TNLA to conduct military activities and for Palaung people to do business. They have to have it. For this reason, the TNLA attacked. They thought the clash would not be so intense and large-scale. But fighting went on for 11 days, and spread to many places, and more than 3,000 people were displaced. So, they began to worry. On February 18, the TNLA retreated from Tawt San village and arrived in Kyaukphyu village, which filled up with their troops. I saw hardly any villagers there, and homes full of soldiers.

TZH: It is the people who suffer the brunt of clashes. This is February, the cold season. It is also exam season for basic education students. So, this has caused lots of trouble for locals. Ko JPaing, you spoke to victims. What are their needs?

JP: The number of victims had reached almost 4,000 by February 18. Many took shelter in 18 monasteries in Kyaukme. Volunteer groups and donors contributed rice, oil and other relief items. But they could not dispel the people's fear.

Students ranged from those in the first grade to those who cannot now sit for their matriculation examinations, as the clashes happened just about a week before their tests were scheduled. In one monastery, I found students studying together for the exam. It was a pitiful sight. I learned from locals and teachers that pupils who are due to sit other exams will be given an automatic pass so they can move on to the next grade level.

TZH: The RCSS and the TNLA then formed negotiation teams to end the conflicts. However, we heard that clashes recurred on February 28.

Meanwhile, on February 17, an NLD lawmaker put forward an urgent proposal urging the NLD-dominated Parliament to help end the fighting in northern Shan State as soon as possible. The military representatives in Parliament also approved the proposal. It was accepted. Do you think that this will be able to influence events?

LW: I talked to Major Robert about the roles of Parliament, the Burma Army and the United Nationalities Federal Council [UNFC] in relation to the fighting. The TNLA is waiting to see how the parliament will intervene, and what role the [Burmese] military will take. The TNLA says that the military is behind the clashes.

TZH: They say the military is behind the RCSS…

LW: The RCSS is based in the southernmost part of Shan State, near the Thailand border. How did they get to Kyaukme in northern Shan State? The TNLA alleged that the military brought [RCSS] troops [north] in trucks. Previously, the RCSS had only around 100 troops. Now have around 1,500 soldiers.

The TNLA said the clashes would end if the military adopted a neutral position and brokered the negotiations. Instead, the TNLA has alleged, the military has dispatched around 2,000 troops in around 200 trucks to clear the region. The clashes could become more intense. People are concerned that they will have to flee again.

Regarding the question of how this situation could be ended, negotiation is a must. The military has to demonstrate its impartiality. The UNFC should broker negotiations. Major Robert said the TNLA would wait and see what happens with these two [the military and the UNFC] and then make a decision. He said clashes would continue until the RCSS leaves the region. It is difficult to say what will happen.

TZH: To see good prospects for peace under the next government, the military should be impartial. If it pays heed to policies adopted by the NLD government at peace negotiations, the problems between ethnic armed groups could be solved, and there could be a greater chance of peace. If the military instead instigates clashes, the prospects for peace will not be good. Ko Lawi, Ko JPaing, thank you for your contributions.

This transcript has been edited for clarity.

The post Dateline Irrawaddy: 'The Major Cause of the Fighting Is Conflict of Interest' appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Record Bust in Mandalay Nets $30m in Illicit Drugs: Police

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 09:59 PM PST

A photo shows the illicit narcotics haul uncovered by police over the weekend in Mandalay Division's Pyigyidagun Township. (Photo: Facebook / MOI Webportal Myanmar)

A photo shows the illicit narcotics haul uncovered by police over the weekend in Mandalay Division's Pyigyidagun Township. (Photo: Facebook / MOI Webportal Myanmar)

MANDALAY — Police in Mandalay's Pyigyidagun Township said drugs and precursor chemicals used in the production of heroin, worth more than 36 billion kyats (US$29.5 million), were seized over the weekend.

According to a law enforcement official from the Drug Elimination Police Force, three men were also arrested in connection with the seizure of methamphetamine tablets known regionally as "yaba" and a similar substance referred to as "ice," heroin precursor chemicals and opium, with the contraband discovered at a compound in the Mandalay township's industrial zone.

"The arrest is connected with the seizure of drugs and opium in Yangon [Rangoon]. The men we arrested in Yangon said they bought the drugs from Mandalay so we raided the compound and found these," said deputy police Col. Myint Aung from the Drug Elimination Police Force's Division 3.

Police are tying the Mandalay raid to drugs valued at more than 30 million kyats seized in Rangoon's Mayangone and South Okalapa townships on Thursday of last week.

"We also found ammonium chloride, sodium carbonate, ammonium hydroxide, hydrochloride and many other chemicals at the Pyigyidagun compound, which are believed to be used in the production of heroin. We are investigating to unearth more drug producers and traffickers," Myint Aung said.

Three vehicles found inside the compound were also seized. Police said drugs were being produced in the compound, the owner of which is being sought by authorities.

According to police, the seizure was the largest of its kind in Mandalay Division. The three men arrested at the compound are facing criminal charges for their alleged ties to the illicit narcotics uncovered over the weekend.

The post Record Bust in Mandalay Nets $30m in Illicit Drugs: Police appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Number of Ministries to Be Nearly Halved: NLD Official

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 09:31 PM PST

President Thein Sein meets with foreign envoys at the President's Office in Naypyidaw in April 2012. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

President Thein Sein meets with foreign envoys at the President's Office in Naypyidaw in April 2012. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

RANGOON — The incoming National League for Democracy (NLD) government intends to nearly halve the number of ministries that make up Burma's executive branch, according to a senior party member.

Win Htein, an NLD central committee member, confirmed to media on Friday that there would be just over 20 ministries within the government it leads, down from the 36 ministries that currently exist.

"The six ministries from the President's Office will be merged into one. The other 30 will be reduced to around 20. So, there will be only 21 or 22 ministries," he said in Naypyidaw.

He added that staff from ministries on the chopping block would not need to worry about their jobs as they would be shifted to relevant ministries or departments that survive the downsizing, echoing what party chairwoman Aung San Suu Kyi said in December of the NLD's plans for bureaucratic streamlining.

Win Htein also said only 30 to 40 percent of the incoming cabinet would be comprised of NLD members, with the rest of the posts going to relevant experts, technocrats and people from other political parties.

"The NLD members will a minority in terms of Union ministers, let's say between 30 and 40 percent," he said.

The NLD government will take office on April 1, with its highly anticipated selection of the country's next president expected this week.

The post Number of Ministries to Be Nearly Halved: NLD Official appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Htin Kyaw Tipped As NLD Presidential Nominee

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 09:26 PM PST

Htin Kyaw (left) at the Parliament as an observer in February. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

Htin Kyaw (left) at the Parliament as an observer in February. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — An executive member of an Aung San Suu Kyi-led foundation has been tipped as one of the presidential candidates to be submitted by the National League for Democracy (NLD) on Thursday.

Htin Kyaw is a senior executive with the Daw Khin Kyi Foundation, a non-profit health and education charity named for Suu Kyi's mother. There has been speculation about his nomination for the post since the NLD's sweeping election victory in November of last year.

As the winning party, the NLD will make its presidential bids in Parliament on March 10. Aung San Suu Kyi, the party chairwoman, is constitutionally barred from the role by Article 59 (f), a clause that does not allow those with a foreign spouse or children to hold the presidency. Suu Kyi's two sons hold British citizenship, as did her late husband.

There have been three meetings between Suu Kyi and Burma's military leaders since the election, but the military was not willing to amend or suspend the law.

Although the NLD has since been tight-lipped on those recommended for the presidency, inside sources report that Htin Kyaw, a 70-year old Mon-Burmese Oxford graduate, is now high on the list.

Htin Kyaw is believed to one of The Lady's right-hand men; within the NLD he has built a reputation as a man of honesty.

Born in Rangoon as Dala Ban—a name he shares with a famous Mon warrior—Htin Kyaw is the son of Min Thuwun, one of Burma's national poets. Politics is integral in the family's history: Min Thuwun was an elected lawmaker in the 1990 elections that also delivered a landslide victory to the NLD. Additionally, Htin Kyaw's father-in-law, U Lwin, is one of the party's founding members.

His wife, Su Su Lwin, is a newly minted Lower House NLD lawmaker recently appointed as the chairperson for the chamber's international relations committee.

Htin Kyaw is also a writer who pens under the pet name his dad gave him—Dala Ban. He published a book on his father in 2009.

The post Htin Kyaw Tipped As NLD Presidential Nominee appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Burmese Children Affected by HIV/AIDS Struggle to Get Education

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 08:30 PM PST

 Phyu Phyu Thin, a National League for Democracy (NLD) lawmaker and founder of the HIV/AIDS Prevention and Care Centre, poses for a photo with a 7-year-old patient at the hospice in the suburbs of Rangoon in November 2014. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

Phyu Phyu Thin, a National League for Democracy (NLD) lawmaker and founder of the HIV/AIDS Prevention and Care Centre, poses for a photo with a 7-year-old patient at the hospice in the suburbs of Rangoon in November 2014. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

RANGOON — When her father died of AIDS in 2003, Pyae Phu Khaing* was just 3 years old, and only two years later her mother died of the same disease. The young girl fell into the care of her grandmother.

But her hardships were not over. When she suddenly began to lose weight while in primary school, a doctor advised a blood test. It found she was HIV positive. She was 12 years old.

The shock of the news and subsequent antiretroviral treatment (ART) provided by a private HIV/AIDS clinic in Rangoon's North Dagon Township forced her to leave school for a year. After she regained strength and the condition was brought under control, she returned with the help of the clinic's staff.

Now she is completing her ninth grade exam and Pyae Phu Khaing says she wants to become a nurse.

Her situation, however tragic, is better than that of most children in Burma who have been infected by HIV/AIDS, or who lost their parents to the disease, according to Nay Linn, operations manager for the Phoenix Association (Yangon), a self-help group for people living with HIV.

Many of the children struggle to continue their education due to a lack of money or because of stigma surrounding the disease, he said, citing a Ministry of Health and Unicef survey among 1,511 caregivers to children who lost parents to HIV/AIDS in 13 states and divisions.

Some 210,000 people are currently living with HIV/AIDS in Burma, of whom around 160,000 receive lifesaving ART based on the World Health Organization's guidelines, according to Medecins Sans Frontieres.

Services to help children affected by the disease are limited. "Only a few groups are supporting HIV-infected children in our country," Nay Linn said, adding that these NGOs usually prioritize free health care over education support.

From 2005 to 2013, the Phoenix Association funded the education costs for children from HIV-affected and low-income families, but since 2014 a funding shortfall means that it can only provide free stationery, he said.

Myint Zaw, an official in charge of the HIV/AIDS clinic in North Dagon Township, whose organization helps arrange schooling, tuition and mental health support programs for HIV-infected children, also said financial support for such programs was limited.

"Despite our financial support, it is not sufficient. These students are still in need of many other things," he said.

His organization helps HIV-infected children and also children whose parents are either HIV patients or have died from HIV.

He added that more vocational training programs were needed to support children who drop out of school, or for programs to tackle discrimination against these children while they are at school.

According to health workers, it is common for HIV/AIDS patients to suffer from depression because they cannot disclose their disease or are shunned by the community if they do.

This is no different for children affected by it. "I fear that my friends will find out that I am suffering from the disease," said Pyae Phu Khaing, who has kept her condition secret from her classmates.

Phyu Phyu Thin, a National League for Democracy (NLD) lawmaker and founder of the HIV/AIDS Prevention and Care Centre in Rangoon's South Dagon Township, said the issue often gets worse with age as children realize the limits set by their life-long illness.

"These children suffer more and more depression as they reach higher school classes," she said.

Phyu Phyu Thin said laws are in place that should prevent discrimination, but that public education on the issue is falling short.

"Myanmar already has adopted a law on infectious diseases. It defines non-discriminatory treatment against the disease-affected persons and guarantees equal rights to education for them," she said. "But more educative programs and legal protections are needed for these people."

*Names were changed to protect the identity of some persons in this story, which first appeared on Myanmar Now.

The post Burmese Children Affected by HIV/AIDS Struggle to Get Education appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Touring Ancient Inwa

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 04:33 PM PST

Click to view slideshow.

An ancient city of two names, Inwa—previously Ava—sits in the center of Burma, a half hour's drive from Mandalay city. For 500 years, the royal capital suffered numerous attempts at its destruction by competing kingdoms, some of which were successful. But it was not until the mid 19th century that the city was finally deserted, conquered not by a rival empire, but reportedly by multiple earthquakes.

The architecture of Inwa can now be explored by visitors from carts, pulled by oxen or horses, as well as by bicycle. Sites of note include the old city wall, the Mae Nu Brick Monastery, Bagaya Monastery, Thapyaydan Fort and the royal watchtower.

The post Touring Ancient Inwa appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

National News

National News


NLD gives further hint on presidency

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 02:30 PM PST

Speculation over the identity of Myanmar's next head of state hit new levels of farce yesterday, with a senior National League for Democracy official telling reporters the president will have a name comprised of two words.

Old loyalties drive rift in Arakan National Party

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 02:30 PM PST

The ethnic Rakhine party is continuing to fracture along the lines of its 2014 merger over the question of whether or not to collaborate with the National League for Democracy.

Mandalay police make record drug bust

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 02:30 PM PST

Police say a major drug bust in Mandalay over the weekend netted more than US$30 million worth of illicit substance, including heroin and Ecstasy. An anti-narcotics team arrested three alleged drug traffickers and seized heroin, opium, methamphetamine and precursor chemicals in a container truck and four cars.

Religious leaders take stand on violence against women

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 02:30 PM PST

Religious leaders from four major faiths in Myanmar called for an end to violence and discrimination against women during an International Women's Day debate in Yangon over the weekend.

Latest fighting prompts suggestions of proxy war

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 02:30 PM PST

More clashes have been reported in northern Shan State and Rakhine State between the Tatmadaw and ethnic Palaung and Rakhine forces. The fighting has prompted suggestions from the government side that it could be fighting a proxy war against more powerful armed groups.

Koh Tao petition reaches Thai embassy

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 02:30 PM PST

Nearly 100,000 people have signed a petition organised by nationalist groups against the death penalty verdict given to two Rakhine State natives.

YCDC opens complaints section

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 02:30 PM PST

Any complaints? Yangon City Development Committee has opened up a special department for you. As of March 4, any of Yangon's 5.21 million citizens can come to City Hall to pick a bone with the administration.

Holiday time delaying crackdown on fake medicine

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 02:30 PM PST

A health official on leave is causing a hold-up in the government's response to counterfeit hepatitis medication.

Climate change could cause 4450 deaths in Myanmar

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 02:30 PM PST

Researchers have predicted that climate change will have such severe impact on food production that it could lead to 4450 deaths in Myanmar by 2050. The expected toll puts the country at the 10th-worst spot out of 155 nations in terms of deaths per capita.

Four villages wait on rail compensation

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 02:30 PM PST

Farmers in four villages in Natmauk township, Magwe Region, are still waiting to receive compensation nearly six years after their land was taken. The 48-kilometre (30-mile) railway that runs over their fields in Magwe and Natmauk townships was built in 2010.

Shan Herald Agency for News

Shan Herald Agency for News


Professor Sai Aung Tun Honors Ambassador of Peace

Posted: 07 Mar 2016 12:48 AM PST

The World Peace Movement Trust awarded Professor Sai Aung Tun its 2016 Ambassador of Peace winner in Yangon on Saturday.


Professor Sai Aung Tun was one of 2 exceptional luminaries to receive the honor in 2016. The prize is awarded to individuals who spend their careers promoting peace and justice to the world.


The ceremony took place at Yangon's M 3 restaurant where the peace prize was presented by Professor Dr. Ravindra Kumar, founder and Secretary General of the World Peace Movement Trust.


Over 100 professors, peace educators and activists including Dr Sai Sarm Tun, Dr Sai Sarng Ai, Dr Sai Sarng Pe, Maj. Gen. Khai Fa, Sai La and Khuensai were in attendance.


Khueansai, a former student of Professor Sai Aung Tun and currently serve as Managing Director of Pyidaungsu Institute for Peace and Dialogue (PI), said that Prof. Sai Aung Tun is a perfect candidate to receive this prize.


"I studied with him from 1966 to 1969. During that time, I got to learn Shan language," he said. "He taught us to be proud of our nationality and love our religion."
"I'm very honoured for him," he added.


Professor Sai Aung Tun, 84, was born in Hsipaw Township, northern Shan State. Over the course of his career, he taught at Yangon University, Taunggyi University, Magwe University, Mandalay University and Myitchina college of Kachin state where he was the principal.


Professor Sai Aung Tun served as a vice-chairman of the Myanmar Historical Commission and lectured MA and PhD courses at the University of Mandalay-Yangon since 1992.



The World Peace Movement Trust is an organization founded in India in 2001 committed to leading literary luminaries and lovers of peace all over the world. Since its founding, the WPMT have made continuous efforts to inspire people all over the world to make commitments of peace by signing pledges of non-violence. 


BY SAI AW / Shan Herald Agency for News (SHAN)

THE CASE OF SHAN UNITY MEETING: As military solution takes the lead, is trust-building going down the drain?

Posted: 06 Mar 2016 08:17 PM PST

The offensives in northern Shan State might have now started as a slow burner but with massive troops deployment, seven out of total ten Light Infantry Divisions (LID) of the Burma Army (Tatmadaw) already in the area, it is only a matter of time before the massive onslaught, on Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Kachin Independence Army (KIA) 4th and newly formed 6th Brigade, are about to begin.

Already starting March, clashes have been occurring between TNLA and Burma army, on the heels of the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS)-TNLA clashes beginning November last year and have largely died down, following the parliament endorsement that the Burma Army should go in to restore normalcy. Recent reports by BBC said that in Namhsan, Namtu, Kyaukme and Kutkhai areas, battles were raging on a daily basis, between the Tatmadaw and TNLA, KIA forces.

Colonel Mai Aik Kyaw of TNLA told the media that Burma Army had reinforced some 500 military trucks, deploying about 4000 troops to combat the ethnic forces in the area. He also said that the Namkham-Kutkhai area is the operational area of the ethnic military alliance involving the TNLA, KIA and  Shan State Progress Party (SSPP).

Meanwhile, Arakan Army (AA) had made public that it's troops ambushed the Tatmadaw's troops that belongs to LID 565, killing some 30, including a high ranking, deputy battalion commander, at  Butheetaung Township in Arakan State. The Burma army has been vowing to drive out the AA from the Arakan State and has been ambushed while reinforcing its troops to fight against the outfit.

As the Tatmadaw, undoubtedly, has embarked on a war path rather than the peaceful settlement, its half-hearted reconciliation scheme of parroting "trust-building" and facilitation through Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) and Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD) seems to be going down the drain. The case in point is its prohibition of the Committee for the Shan State Unity (CSSU) meeting that was supposed to take place in Rangoon for three days, within the parameter of national reconciliation deliberation.

The three-day planned annual meeting of the CSSU ended after only one day on 3rd March, Thursday due to pressure from the local military security establishment in Rangoon.

The committee, which is a coalition of ethnic armed groups, political parties and civil society organizations, aimed to explore strategies that would advance collaboration and unity within Shan State's diverse communities, apart from the necessity of constitutional amendment to achieve genuine federalism and employing the real essence of NCA to achieve real internal peace.

According to Sai Leik, spokesman of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), members of a local military affairs security team asked him to let them in to the meeting room to listen to the proceedings  but the request was refused.

"Upon our refusal, they went to pressure the people responsible for the hotel. They also demanded that we terminate our meeting for lack of permission to hold the meeting, in which we asked that they do the rejection officially in writing. But as they declined, we said that since it is the directive not concerned with us (as it is not prohibited according to the law) we will not stop the meeting," said Sai Leik.

But nevertheless, the CSSU meeting scheduled for another two days to be held at Summit Parkview Hotel was unable to continue, due to the Rangoon Regional authority's order to the hotel concerned, that without permission it could not permit the holding of meeting at its venue.

But according to "Trust-building and interpreting principle of political framework" and specifically for the level of "National Level Political Dialogue", it is clearly allowed and approved as the following paragraph in Political Dialogue Framework  is written.

"In line with the basic guidelines laid down by the Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC), the working committees may hold the national level political dialogues in groups or in single group of governments, ethnic armed groups and civil society organizations from states and regions."

As a result, only a skeleton, wrap up meeting was held the following day, on 4 March, at the SNLD head office in Rangoon, without going through the three-day schedule as planned.

CSSU Statement

On 4 March, the CSSU, which is made up of Shan State Joint Action Committee (SSJAC), Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP), SNLD, Civil Society Organizations inside and outside the country,  issued a five point statement:

·         emphasizing to work towards unity, harmony, equality, development, and self-determination of all ethnic groups in Shan State;
·         amending 2008 Constitution  in order to establish a federal union that reflects the desire of all ethnic groups;
·         promising to support the current peace building effort in accordance with the essence of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA);   
·         encouraging to find solution to all armed conflicts among the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and between the EAOs and the Tatmadaw through peaceful means; and
·         accepts the application of Eastern Shan State Development and Democracy Party (ESSDDP) to become its latest member.

Shan State Academics Consultative Council

It will be helpful to briefly go back and look into the phobia mindset of the military on federalism, even if it is now forced to parrot it, due to the political pressure and nature of the day.

On 9 February 2005, nine Shan national leaders including U Khun Htun Oo, Chairman of the   SNLD, were arrested by the Burmese military regime for attempting to form a committee called the "Shan State Academics Consultative Council".

The committee was advocating the formation of genuine federal union, which the military accused the Shan leaders of actually intending to use this term to get people's support, but that their real intention was to one day secede from the union and establish a separate state. And it was under this the trump up, treason charge that all the Shan leaders involved were sent to long years of imprisonment.

Khun Htun Oo, Chairman of the SNLD, was sentenced to 93 years imprisonment, Secretary Sai Nyunt Lwin  85 years, U Sai Hla Aung 79 years, U Myint Than 79 years (where he died), U Htun Nyo 79 years, Sai Myo Win Tun 79 years, Sai Nyi Nyi Moe 79 years and General Hso Ten with 106 years.

Seen from this perspective, it is quite evident that the military hasn't been able to get rid of its phobia of genuine federalism and the power-sharing that would follow by really accepting it. And thus, the prohibition of the CSSU to conduct meeting could be seen from this perspective.

The Chinese factor

Given the Tatmadaw's likely massive confrontation course with the  EAOs along the Burma-China border and northern Shan State as a whole and perhaps sensing the military build up and escalation of war, the Chinese Ambassador to Burma Mr. Hong Lian warned that he hoped that no more incident of stray bombs will fall again on Chinese soil like in the past, after the new regime take over.

"China is the country which wants most to see peace in Myanmar so that there will be no more stray bombs falling on our territory," he told reporters, referring to the the war that broke out between the Myanmar Army and Kokang forces last year, when he met reporters on 4 March at his residence, according to recent Mizzima report.

An intended and a thinly veiled threat could also be detected, when he said China was practising an "open door policy," one in which no bombs from other countries fell on Chinese territory, but Myanmar had proved to be the exception.

"The bombs from Paukphaw (friendly) country of Myanmar fell on our territory. We would have retaliated if the bombs were from other countries," he added.

Possible outlook

While militarily the confrontation course is unmistakably moving towards a wider, nastier war, the political course of "trust building", especially where the ethnic groups are concerned has also taken a beating, if not yet already totally depleted.

The consequences arising from such failed calculation could be tremendous and it would do the military clique good if it could reassess the wrong course that it has now taken, could push the country into the abyss of a wider mini-Cold War, which will lead to the "lose-lose" outcome for all stakeholders.

Already the pitting of RCSS against TNLA has opened up a latent formation of confrontation groups: a pro-Chinese MNDAA, United Wa State Army (UWSA), National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) or Mong La and TNLA on one side; and the RCSS and Burma army on the other, although both sides rejected that they have anything to do with each other.

The military clique's desire or even commitment to cling on to power in order to protect its group interest is understandable but misplaced.

Its best bet is to fade away in dignity through political compromise, settlement and accommodation, not trying to cling on to power at all cost. Otherwise, the "Arab Spring" that the military is so determined to keep away from would usher in against its will.

The short-sighted thinking of keeping the war flames on so that it could retain its political edge and parroting "trust-building", while doing just the opposite, as the prohibition of Shan unity meeting shows, wouldn't do anyone good and could even drag down the country into total disintegration that the military is so keen to avoid.


It is high time for the military to make correct assessment and invest every effort to avert undesirable man-made catastrophe of self-destruction, for the benefit of the country and the people that have suffered for so long under its rule.