Monday, November 12, 2018

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine

Analysis: KNU Reiterates Hiatus in Peace Talks

Posted: 12 Nov 2018 06:51 AM PST

CHIANG MAI, Thailand—The Karen National Union (KNU) is standing firm on its decision to temporarily suspend its participation in ongoing peace talks, but will seek solutions to overcome the impasses facing the peace process through informal negotiations, it said in a statement.

The statement was released after an emergency meeting of the KNU Central Standing Committee on Nov. 10.

The KNU leadership met last week to review its high-level talks with the government, Tatmadaw (Myanmar's military) and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in mid-October, and to reflect on the

The group announced it was suspending its participation in the peace process two weeks ago, saying it needed time to conduct internal consultations on a meaningful participation in the process, before moving on with it.

The KNU said that confusion over the peace process had increased because stakeholders had different understandings of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). It said this was making it hard to "solve the issues, which are developing repeating contradictions" as the different groups pushed to implement the agreement according to their various, and different, understandings of it.

The KNU stressed the need for "solution-seeking negotiations" in order to overcome obstacles to the implementation of the NCA.

"The KNU abides by the NCA agreements, which include the building of a Democratic Federal Union with equality and full self-determination according to the result of political dialogue, and the KNU believes there must be a single interpretation of those agreements," its statement reads.

The statement said the issues of non-secession from the Union and armed forces integration had been raised by the government and Tatmadaw "as negotiation preconditions which were not included in the NCA agreement." The KNU said that by bringing up such preconditions, the government and military were implying that the negotiation of topics agreed to in the NCA would only continue once the EAOs had accepted those terms.

The KNU has repeatedly said the parties need to "thoroughly discuss the security affairs first" before continuing on to negotiate the single army issue.

The KNU also insisted that "it is not sufficient" to limit the process of crafting democratic and federal principles to NCA signatories, saying it must involve other EAOs who are not yet allowed to participate in the political dialogue to ensure that everyone is properly represented and to realize a sustainable peace.

The seeds of the current impasses now plaguing the peace process can be seen in the way the NCA text was developed back in 2014 and 2015, especially regarding the issue of all-inclusivity and the six points raised by the military, which objected to the inclusion of three armed groups—the Arakan Army, the Ta'ang Nationalities Liberation Army and Kokang's Myanmar Nationalities Democratic Alliance Army—in the process.

The signing of the NCA in October 2015 was preceded by seven months of deadlock in the composition of its draft text, said Khuensai Jaiyen, an adviser to the Peace Process Steering Team (PPST). Thus the current situation is cause for concern, based on prior experience, the adviser said.

"It is a concern if we do think so [about the current situation]. Thus we need to have many more informal negotiations like in the past, because there are people on all sides—the government, Tatmadaw and the EAOs—who really want the peace process to keep moving and to achieve peace," he said.

Different opinions on KNU's move

Observers have differing views of the KNU's decision; some see it as a positive reaction, while others speculate that it could point to a split in the KNU leadership.

This has led to concerns that fighting in its areas will return; that the peace process will weaken; and that the convening of the Union Peace Conference three more times before 2020 will be delayed.

In March, clashes between the KNU and the Tatmadaw over the latter's rebuilding of an old road in an area controlled by the KNU's Brigade 5 in Papun district displaced civilians and disrupted the daily lives of local people.

Sources close to the government speculate on a possible split between the KNU's leaders, and have even suggested that chairman General Saw Mutu Say Poe may not be in full control.

KNU vice chairman Padho Kwe Htoo Win recently denied any such divisions to The Irrawaddy, while acknowledging that differing opinions exist, saying this is normal in a democratic organization.

"If the military stays in its own zone of control and does not cross the line, there would be no concern about fighting, and thus nothing to worry about," said Saw Matthew Aye, an ethnic Karen who is a vice chairman of the Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee (JMC) representing the civilian sector. The JMC comprises representatives of the EAO commanders, Tatmadaw and civilians.

He said the KNU's decision is a "positive reaction" because the current peace process needs a break to allow participants to rethink and review, as the meetings so far had not resulted in any specific decisions.

The KNU did not participate in the JMC meeting earlier this month, so the 19th JMC Union-level meeting for November had been postponed, Saw Matthew Aye said.

However, trust was still lacking between the peace negotiation partners, the KNU said, so the stakeholders must have "trust-building mechanisms, common visions, shared values and national reconciliation" in order to overcome the obstacles to implementing national reconciliation and building trust.

The KNU joined the peace process in 2012 and signed its first bilateral ceasefire with the government in January that year. It pledged to find solutions to political issues through political means rather than arms after over six decades of fighting with the Tatmadaw.

There are also rumors that the KNU is likely to replace chairman General Saw Mutu Say Poe with KNU General Secretary Padoh Saw Kwe Tadoh Moo as the leader of its delegation to the PPST.

"I don't think there is potential for such leadership change," said Khuensai Jaiyen, however, describing the divergent views within the KNU as differing opinions, not a leadership split.

PPST meeting likely this month

The PPST meeting has been temporarily postponed as the KNU and another NCA signatory, the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), are internally reviewing their positions on the peace process.

The RCSS also said last week that it had decided not to take part in the discussions of the JMC at either the state or the Union level, claiming the JMC is not abiding by the NCA.

Although there are uncertainties over whether the ethnic leaders of all 10 signatories will meet soon, Khuensai Jaiyen was optimistic that the meeting will happen this month.

He said the leaders could not avoid such discussions, as EAOs need to negotiate for common ground and to move forward on negotiations with the government, but "it will take time."

Before the PPST meeting with all signatories, the KNU and the RCSS will hold separate discussions between the two on how to move forward, as they did in early October before deciding to join high-level talks in Naypyitaw.

Saw Mra Yar Zar Lin, the deputy leader of the Peace Implementing Committee of the Arakan Liberation Party, another signatory to the NCA, said open and thorough negotiations are urgently needed and thus the talks must go on.

"There will be an impact, more or less, on the process [because of the KNU's move]," she said, as the views of each and every EAO were needed to decide whether the process should move forward or not.

"We, the EAOs, must only raise the concerns on what type of federal principles we want to achieve, and the government should also openly say to what extent they agree with those," she added.

The post Analysis: KNU Reiterates Hiatus in Peace Talks appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Man Wrongfully Detained and Beaten by Police to File Complaints

Posted: 12 Nov 2018 04:16 AM PST

MANDALAY—A tour company director who was mistaken for a thief was detained and beaten by police, said he will file a complaint with the EU office in Myanmar, the Myanmar National Human Rights Commission and the Lower House Committee for Rule of Law.

Ko Aung Soe Htike, director of Babylon Trekking and Camping Tour, was detained on Friday night by police from Ahlone Township Police Station after being mistaken for a thief who stole a mobile phone from Ahlone Township's administration office.

While on the way to pick up his daughter from a tuition class on Friday evening, the police showed up, handcuffed him and took him to the police station without giving any reason for his arrest.

Ko Aung Soe Htike told The Irrawaddy that he was beaten up by police and thug-like men at the police station behind closed doors without ever being given the chance to ask questions about his detainment.

"I was not allowed to contact anyone or ask what is going on. About three men were there. They treated me like a criminal and beat me several times on my chest and back, and forced me to admit to theft," said Ko Aung Soe Htike.

Ko Aung Soe Htike's friends began the search for him after he didn't turn up for an appointment they had with him on Friday evening. Only then was it discovered that he was detained in police custody.

Police mistook Ko Aung Soe Htike for a thief who was caught on CCTV stealing a mobile phone from an officer of Ahlone Township's administration office. The CCTV footage shows a man with a similar appearance to Ko Aung Soe Htike.

"My friends arrived [at the police station] after a few hours and were shown the CCTV footage by the police. They confirmed the thief is not me and then the chief of the police station apologized and released me," he said.

Ko Aung Soe Htike said he will file a complaint with the EU office in Myanmar, the Myanmar National Human Rights Commission and the Lower House Committee for Rule of Law, for what he suffered due to the polices officers' mistake. Under an EU-led initiative, the Myanmar Police Force underwent training which involved human rights awareness from 2013 to 2015.

"I will send the complaint this week. There are many people like me who are arrested mistakenly, beaten up and forced to admit to a crime and they are helpless and have to spend time behind bars where their rights and dignity are abused," said Ko Aung Soe Htike.

"I don't know how the police station chief will deal with the men who beat me. I hope there will be no more cases like this in the future and that the human rights commission and the commission for rule of law will make sure of this," he added.

News of the incident spread widely over social media over the weekend, with users condemning the actions of the police and urging the Yangon Divisional Police Chief to investigate the incident and take legal action against the police who beat the tour company director.

"Even if a suspect or culprit is arrested, the police must not beat them up like this. Such an action is shameful for every police officer and for the country so the responsible institution [the police force] needs to make sure there will be no such human rights abuses in the future," said Daw Nwe Nwe Win, a lawmaker of Ahlone Township.

When contacted by The Irrawaddy, Ahlone Township police refused to comment on the incident.

The post Man Wrongfully Detained and Beaten by Police to File Complaints appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

President Proposes New Ministry to Promote Investment

Posted: 12 Nov 2018 03:07 AM PST

YANGON — President U Win Myint has proposed the formation of a new Union-level ministry to boost local and international investment and to make that investment socially and environmentally responsible.

The president submitted his proposal for a Ministry of Investment and Foreign Economic Relations to Parliament on Monday for approval. Lawmakers will discuss the request on Thursday.

The plan comes at a time when Myanmar’s economy is slowing and many international investors are turning away because of the Rohingya crisis. Some 700,000 Rohingya Muslims have fled to neighboring Bangladesh since a military crackdown in northern Rakhine State late last year. The government, led by Nobel laureate Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, has come under heavy international criticism for remaining largely silent on the issue.

If Parliament approves the president’s proposal, Myanmar will have a total 25 ministries.

In a message read out by the Parliament speaker, U Win Myint said the government needed the new ministry "to make use of outside assistances from the United Nations and other international organizations in accordance with the country's policies and to have effective  collaboration with the UN and others international organizations."

The message did not mention who would head the new ministry. But sources in Naypyitaw say U Thaung Tun, who chairs the government’s Directorate of Investment and Company Administration (DICA), which manages the registration of both local and foreign companies, is tipped for the post.

U Thaung Tun is the currently national security advisor and government office minister.

He has served as ambassador to the Philippines, Belgium, the Netherlands and the EU and was director-general for political affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs under the former military regime.

During that time, he was widely criticized by the opposition for warning Daw Aung San Suu Kyi — then under house arrest — that she "must not rock the boat" after she said she would boycott the military regime's controversial constitution convention at a 2006 press conference in Manila.

In 2016 he worked as a government relations adviser for Shell Myanmar Energy PTE.

He was appointed national security adviser in January 2017 and government office minister that November. The appointments were criticized by former lawmaker U Soe Thane, who was president's office minister under President U Thein Sein. U Soe Thane reportedly said that U Thaung Tun had failed to disclose his previous work for the George Soros Foundation and a consultant and said that making him national security adviser could hurt Myanmar's relations with China.

The former lawmaker also reportedly said that George Soros approached him to secure a ministerial appointment for U Thaung Tun, but U Thein Sein rejected the idea because George Soros was American.

The post President Proposes New Ministry to Promote Investment appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

By-Election Disappointment Prompts Internal Reforms at NLD                 

Posted: 12 Nov 2018 02:30 AM PST

NAYPYITAW—The National League for Democracy (NLD) will implement internal reforms in order to secure victory in the 2020 general election, according to Dr. Zaw Myint, vice chairman of the ruling party.

Speaking to the media after a meeting of the party's Central Executive Committee (CEC) on Sunday evening, he said the party would conduct reforms on the ground.

"To begin with, we will reform our women's committee, along with public campaign committees at the ward and village level. We will also revive the township public campaign committees. We will reform the party first, before considering the lawmakers," Dr. Zaw Myint Maung said.

The CEC meeting also agreed to form a five-member committee tasked with reviewing the results of the Nov. 3 by-election, in which the party lost control of some constituencies it won in the 2015 general election.

Of 13 seats contested in the by-election, the NLD won seven—three Lower House and three regional parliament seats, and an ethnic Shan constituency in the Mandalay regional parliament.

"We received over 40,000 votes in Myitkyina in the previous election. But this fell to somewhere over 10,000 in the most recent one. Some say it was because of low voter turnout. The committee will review the results and determine the reason," Dr. Zaw Myint Maung said.

"The committee will review the by-election results independently," said ruling party spokesperson Dr. Myo Nyunt.

The CEC meeting openly pointed out weaknesses of party members and discussed plans for reforming the party as well as training members in the party's rules and disciplinary procedures.

Dr. Zaw Myint Maung said that while some NLD township chapters had taken steps to organize public campaign groups ahead of the Nov. 3 by-election, they only existed on paper.

The party lost in some constituencies because party members there failed to listen to the voices of the people, he said, adding that the NLD would learn from the experience and take steps to avoid a repeat in 2020.

"It is never too late to mend," said U Ye Htun, a political analyst and former lawmaker for Hsipaw Township.

"The party alone should not be blamed [for the by-election results]. As it is the ruling party, it has to manage the administration mechanism, and the weakness and faults of the government should also be blamed.

"For example, the Yangon regional government has disregarded the regional parliament, and its actions are in violation of the [2008] Constitution and procedures. Such things have nothing to do with the party, but are the faults of the parliament and the government. There are many faults that need to be fixed," he added.

The post By-Election Disappointment Prompts Internal Reforms at NLD                  appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Explosives Kill Two in Northern Shan

Posted: 12 Nov 2018 01:53 AM PST

Mon State — Two people were killed and two more were wounded by a pair of explosives in northern Shan State on Sunday, according to relatives and media.

In Kyaukme Township, two ethnic Ta’ang women, aged 20 and 26, were heading from Khon Ngan Village to the center of town by motorbike to do some shopping when they hit an explosive at about 9:30 a.m., according to relatives. They said the younger woman, Lway Kham Yin, died from her injuries at a Mandalay hospital that evening and that the other was wounded by survived.

“She was seriously wounded in her head, so a doctor told us they could not save her," said Nang Mya Htwe, Lway Kham Yin’s aunt.

A funeral for Lway Kham Yin was held Monday at a Buddhist monastery, but some of her relatives stayed away for fear that there may be more explosives along local roads.

Several armed groups operate in the area, including the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and periodically clash with each other or the Myanmar military. The RCSS currently has fighters posted in Khon Ngan Village while the rival TNLA has recently taken up a position on a nearby mountain.

Separately, in Muse Township, a 13-year-old ethnic Mong Wong boy was killed instantly when an improvised explosive he and his friend were playing with on Sunday went off, according to Radio Free Asia. The report said the boy who survived was treated at a local hospital.

Such explosions are common in northern Shan State. The military and armed groups blame each other for planting the explosives, but determining who actually set any given device is difficult.

Landmines wounded seven people in the area last month. They killed three and wounded another seven in September.

According to Halo Trust, a UK-based non-governmental organization, there were 119 landmine explosions in Myanmar last year, killing 52 people and injuring 124. Of the 119 explosions, 45 occurred in Shan State.

This year, from January through May, there have already been 127 landmine explosions, which have killed 23 people and injured 136. Forty-nine of the explosions were in Shan.

The post Explosives Kill Two in Northern Shan appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

24-Hour Electricity in Rakhine to Be Delivered by End of Year

Posted: 11 Nov 2018 11:40 PM PST

NAYPYITAW — A 30-billion-kyat project to provide 24-hour electricity to four townships in Rakhine State will be completed in December, according to the Department of Electric Power Transmission and System Control under the Ministry of Electricity and Energy.

The project was launched in 2016 to provide electricity to Ponnagyun, Rathedaung, Buthidaung and Maungdaw townships. The first three townships have access to electricity at this point, said director U Kyaw Swa Soe Naing of the department.

"We've supplied electricity reaching Buthidaung. Only Maungdaw is left. We expect to complete the project by the end of December," he said during the ministry's monthly press conference in Naypyitaw on Thursday.

As of March, 1,530 households in Rathedaung and 3,374 households in Buthidaung had electricity around the clock, he added.

The project took so long due to various reasons including instability in the region and logistical difficulties.

Buthidaung Township has access to electricity around the clock on a trial basis as of November, said Lower House lawmaker U Aung Thaung Shwe of the township.

A curfew has been in effect in Buthidaung and Maungdaw townships and civilians are not allowed to go outside between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m.

"As we have electricity now, people will feel emotionally safer despite the curfew," he said.

"We have electricity, but there are still many people who don't because they don't yet have a meter box. So we still need to use charcoal to cook," said Daw May Han Lwint, a resident of No. 4 Thabyaegon Ward in Buthidaung.

Including Maungdaw, the electricity coverage will have reached 96 percent of Rakhine State by the end of December, according to the Ministry of Electricity and Energy.

"Those without meter boxes still do not have electricity. A meter box costs more than 100,000 kyats and not all of the people can afford that," said Upper House lawmaker U Aung Kyaw Zan of Rakhine State Constituency (9).

According to the Ministry of Electricity and Energy, Myanmar currently has 24 hydropower plants, 22 gas-fired power plants, and a coal-fired power plant, which produce a combined output of more than 3,000 megawatts that covers only 37.85 percent of total households in the country.

The ministry is building four gas-fired power plants with a projected total output of some 3,000 megawatts.

Translated from Burmese by Thet Ko Ko.

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Michael Jackson’s ‘Bad’ Tour Jacket Sold at Auction

Posted: 11 Nov 2018 09:11 PM PST

Michael Jackson’s iconic black “Bad” jacket, which he wore on his first solo tour, sold for $298,000 late Saturday, about three times its original asking price, at a New York auction which featured items from music legends Prince, Madonna, John Lennon and others, officials announced.

Julien’s Auctions had an original asking price of $100,000 for the jacket that Jackson signed on the back with a silver permanent marker and was worn throughout the singer’s “Bad” world concert tour from 1987-89.

It is one of the late singer’s most iconic costume pieces alongside his red and black leather “Thriller” music video jacket that sold for $1.8 million at auction in 2011.

Jackson has become one of the most collectible celebrities since his sudden death in 2009 in Los Angeles at age 50 from an accidental overdose of an anesthetic he was using as a sleep aid.

The “Bad” jacket was sold by Texas businessman and philanthropist Milton Verret along with almost 100 other items from his large rock ‘n roll memorabilia collection.

The Icons & Idols: Rock-N-Roll auction, which announced the results of the two-day auction late Saturday, also featured electric guitars played by Bob Dylan, Paul McCartney, Eric Clapton, and U2 band members The Edge and Bono.

A guitar Prince used in his final stage performance in 2016 sold for $156,250 and his motorcycle jacket he wore in the 1984 movie Purple Rain sold for $37,500, an official said.

Part of the auction proceeds will go to the MusicCares charity arm of Grammy Award organizers the Recording Academy that provides health and other services to musicians.

The post Michael Jackson’s ‘Bad’ Tour Jacket Sold at Auction appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Finance For Electricity Access Too Little, Too Dirty: Energy Body

Posted: 11 Nov 2018 08:21 PM PST

BARCELONA — Finance to provide electric power to nearly 1 billion people who live without it is rising — but too slowly to meet a global goal to reach everyone by 2030, an international body said on Monday.

Meanwhile, funding to expand cleaner, more energy-efficient cooking has declined, Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) said in a report that compared financing levels in 2015 and 2016 with the preceding two-year period.

In 20 countries that are home to four-fifths of those who lack access to power, electrification finance rose by 56 percent to an average of about $30 billion per year in 2015-2016.

But that is still far below the $52 billion needed each year, the report said.

And more than a quarter of the annual investment in 2015 and 2016, or $8 billion per year, was for grid-connected fossil fuel plants, double the spending on them in 2013-14 — something “the global community may be concerned to note,” it added.

China provided a fifth of that fossil-fuel expansion money.

SEforALL CEO Rachel Kyte, who is also special representative of the UN secretary-general for energy access, said the funding uptick for electric power was “nowhere near sufficient for us to reach the goal, or to meet the needs, or to make these communities resilient in the face of climate change impacts.”

In seven developing countries, including Nigeria, Malawi, Sudan and Afghanistan, investment in electrification dropped by 50 percent or more in 2015 and 2016 compared to 2013-14, with sub-Saharan Africa as a whole receiving less money.

India, the Philippines, Bangladesh and Kenya garnered 86 percent of investment in 2015-2016 for expansion of electricity access among the 20 countries studied.

Within that, the same four received the most money for new coal-fired power plants, which often do not help the poorest where they are not connected to the power grid, the report said.

“The benefits [fossil fuel plants] may bring in terms of energy access are countered by the negative impacts on human health and their contributions to global climate change,” it said.

The study looked at both international and domestic sources of funding averaged over two years.

The research highlighted the tiny fraction of funding going into off-grid renewable electricity, including solar.

A growing number of policy makers and experts view such systems as the fastest and most cost-effective way to boost electricity access, it said.

Annual investment in off-grid electricity rose to an average of $380 million in both 2015 and 2016, from $210 million per year in 2013 and 2014, but that investment accounted for just 1.3 percent of the total finance tracked, the report said.

Kyte told the Thomson Reuters Foundation the figures pointed to “an under-appreciation of how important off-grid is going to be for these countries.”

She urged development banks to focus more on decentralized clean energy when helping countries expand power supplies.

Last week, close to 60 environment and anti-poverty groups based in Africa and beyond sent an open letter to the African Development Bank (AfDB) urging it to step up financial support for clean energy access on the continent.

After launching a “New Deal on Energy for Africa” in 2016, the bank’s financing for off-grid and mini-grid power rose to 6.6 percent of its energy project approvals for 2016-2017, from less than 2 percent in the two years before, the letter noted.

Under the New Deal, a partnership that aims to achieve universal access to electricity in Africa by 2025, the AfDB has committed to invest about $12 billion between 2016 and 2020, while leveraging up to $50 billion in co-financing.

But the civil society letter cited new data from the International Energy Agency estimating that, as sub-Saharan Africa’s population grows, 600 million of its people will still lack access to electricity in 2030, mainly in rural areas, “unless there are major changes to the status quo.”

New recipe needed

Kyte said development banks were also failing to get to grips with the massive need for cleaner cooking, despite some states such as Rwanda and Indonesia ramping up efforts to wean people off polluting fuels like kerosene and charcoal.

Nearly 3 billion people around the world still cook with dirty fuels that cause indoor air pollution responsible for over 4 million deaths a year, especially among women and children.

Yet funding to catalyze a switch to cleaner cooking methods and heat sources remains “abysmally low,” dropping 5 percent to $30 million per year in 2015-16, the SEforALL report said.

“There is something profoundly off in the way we are approaching this,” Kyte said.

The best way to boost clean energy access overall is for governments to put in place supportive policies, and to develop their capital markets to entice investment — but many still require international assistance to make that happen, she noted.

The post Finance For Electricity Access Too Little, Too Dirty: Energy Body appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Singapore Calls for Closer SE Asia, Says Multilateralism Under Threat

Posted: 11 Nov 2018 08:02 PM PST

SINGAPORE — Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong called on Monday for greater integration between Southeast Asian countries at a time when multilateralism is under threat.

His remarks came at a business summit on the sidelines of meetings this week between the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and external partners, including the United States and China, which are locked in a bitter trade war.

“ASEAN has great potential, but fully realizing it depends on whether we choose to become more integrated, and work resolutely towards this goal in a world where multilateralism is fraying under political pressures,” Lee said at the ASEAN Business and Investment Summit.

Lee has previously warned that the US-China trade war could have a “big, negative impact” on Singapore, and the city-state’s central bank has warned it could soon drag on growth.

Notably absent from this week’s meetings in Singapore is US President Donald Trump, who has said several existing multilateral trade deals are unfair, and has railed against China over intellectual property theft, entry barriers to US businesses and a gaping trade deficit.

Vice President Mike Pence will attend instead of Trump, and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are among those expected to join ASEAN.

Li is expected to rally support for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) pact now being negotiated, showcased to be the free trade deal that will encompass more than a third of the world’s GDP.

The pact includes 16 countries, including China, India, Japan and South Korea, but not the United States.

It was not clear if Li and Pence will hold separate talks on the sidelines of the Singapore meetings, which would be a prelude to a summit scheduled between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of the month in Buenos Aires.

The encounter, if it happens, would come on the heels of high-level talks in Washington where the two sides aired their main differences but appeared to attempt controlling the damage to relations that has worsened with tit-for-tat tariffs in recent months.

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For NLD, By-Election Result a Wake-Up Call for 2020

Posted: 09 Nov 2018 08:34 PM PST

Kyaw Zwa Moe: Welcome to Dateline Irrawaddy! In Saturday's by-election, the NLD (National League for Democracy) did not win as many seats as it should have and only secured seven out of 13 seats, or just over 50 percent of the total seats. Is this because the NLD's popularity with the people has declined? If this is the case, are there problems with the policies of the NLD and actions of the NLD government? How will this affect the NLD's potential [for electoral victory] in 2020? Yangon regional lawmaker Ma Kyi Pyar and political analyst Dr. Yan Myo Thein join me to discuss this. I'm Kyaw Zwa Moe, English editor of The Irrawaddy.

NLD leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi said before the by-election that she wanted to win all 13 seats. But the party only secured seven seats. What's worse, in three of the six constituencies where it lost, its rival Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won by a majority. So, the by-election was an unexpected failure for the NLD. It is fair to say that the result reflects the public's frustration with the party. Ma Kyi Pyar, how do you assess this [as an NLD lawmaker]?

Kyi Pyar: The fact that we lost in the constituencies where we won [in 2015] is a cause for concern. We did expect that it would be hard for us to win in [Shan State's] Laikha and [Rakhine State's] Rathedaung. But the fact that we lost in Yangon's Seikkan, [Chin State's] Matupi, and [Sagaing Region's] Tamu calls for a review. In my opinion, I would guess that the lawmakers from those areas are weak at communicating with local residents. Also, it pertains to the performance of the government. People expected a lot from the government. The performance of the government may have fallen short of their expectations over the past two years. But both the government and Parliament have been working for them. But people might not be able to see the immediate impact in some cases. We have carried out many reforms over the past two years but people may feel frustrated that the results have not met their expectations. I see it as an alarm bell for us to make greater efforts in 2019 and prepare for 2020. In my opinion, there is a real need for the government, Parliament and party to work harder and make careful preparations in 2019.

KZM: Ko Yan Myo Thein, Ma Kyi Pyar said that lawmakers might have weaknesses. What about the weaknesses of the NLD government, considering the country as a whole? The NLD lost in Rakhine, Shan, Kachin and Sagaing. This indicates something for 2020. Is it because the NLD has not lived up to people's expectations over the past two years?

Yan Myo Thein: Considering the overall situation, as Ma Kyi Pyar said, there is an urgent need for the government, Parliament and the ruling party to review themselves before the 2020 general elections. Here, I want to focus on the NLD's relations with ethnic parties. The USDP won the Upper House seat for Kachin State Constituency (2). The Kachin Democratic Party and the NLD were second and third. This indicates that the USDP won because votes were split between the Kachin ethnic party and the NLD. The NLD learned a good lesson from this for the 2020 election. NLD leaders should take this into serious consideration not only in Kachin but also in Shan, Chin, Mon, Karen and all the ethnic states. My suggestion is that the party should work very hard to forge alliances with ethnic parties and establish partnerships with them before the 2020 election.

KZM: Speaking of ethnic issues, joint secretary U Sai Leik of the SNLD [Shan Nationalities League for Democracy] in an interview said that though the NLD has called itself a Union party, its relations toward ethnic parties have been less warm since the 1990 general elections. He said the situation would get worse if the NLD does not fix it before 2020. Ma Kyi Pyar, how do you assess the policies of the party and the government [regarding the relationship with ethnic parties]?

KP: The problem is that the NLD is widely regarded as a Bamar party. But in all of the ethnic constituencies, local ethnic NLD candidates contested the election. Still, many view the NLD as a Bamar party. In fact, the NLD engages actively in ethnic issues. The government does as much as it can regarding budget sharing for ethnic regions. For example, it thinks about what additional things it can do for Rakhine State and about equitable development in other ethnic regions in terms of transportation and more. The government has done a lot. But the problem is that we are viewed as a Bamar party and our actions are judged according to that perception. In my opinion, it is necessary for the party to engage more warmly with ethnic groups.

KZM: It largely depends on party leaders and the government formed by the party. The problem is mainly about policy, isn't it?

YMT: Yes, it is.

KZM: It lacks a policy regarding how to compromise with the SNLD, ALD [Arakan League for Democracy] and Kachin party. Perhaps it is because the NLD wanted to win all of the seats in the by-election.

KP: This is also possible. We don't know much about the direction of party leaders. We have been doing many things for ethnic people. I believe there is a need to consider forging alliances with certain parties. In the 2015 election, we did have our eyes set on total victory because we wanted to form the government. Comparing state parliaments and the Union Parliament, the NLD will be able to form the government only when it is voted for by the Union Parliament. I think the NLD should negotiate with ethnic parties in ethnic regions. Given the results of the 2017 and 2018 by-elections, there is a need for party leaders to seriously consider how to improve ties with ethnic parties in the future. We have marched alongside ethnic groups in the struggle for democracy. We have fought together for democracy. I am quite sad that the vote was split and that the other party got the vote.

KZM: Critics and analysts have criticized the NLD leadership and their policies on this issue. One of the prominent figures in the party, Mandalay Region Chief Minister Dr. Zaw Myint Maung, said it was a lesson for him, and it showed that the party needs rebuilding and has weaknesses. In the six constituencies the NLD didn't win, ethnic parties won three and the USDP won three. If the NLD can't fix its policy or improve the performance of individual party members, and if in the 2020 election the ethnic parties win in the ethnic constituencies and the USDP wins some other constituencies, it will be very difficult to form a government. What I am going to say might be unlikely; it needs 51 percent of the seats in Parliament to form the cabinet. But to get that percentage, a party needs to win some 70 percent of the vote in election, right?

YMT: It is a weak point of the 2008 Constitution. According to the Constitution, 25 percent of seats are reserved for the military. So, to form a government, a political party needs to win over two-thirds of the votes in the election. It is 67 percent. In my opinion, the NLD still has time. Dr. Zaw Myint Maung said the party needs to learn a lesson. I think he should have said so earlier. The NLD should act promptly and take practical action in 2019. It should think about how to reform the government, Parliament and party. Those reforms should be noticeable and transparent, and publicized. It is important that reform takes place that way. We also need to think about a possible scenario beyond the 2020 election. If the NLD doesn't win enough seats to elect the president, and if the combined seats of the USDP and military representatives are not enough to elect the president, then the role of ethnic lawmakers will become important. The NLD should prepare for that scenario. If necessary, the NLD should consider not contesting in constituencies where ethnic parties are likely to win in the 2020 election, and supporting ethnic parties to win in ethnic constituencies, and solicit the support of ethnic parties to win in ethnic constituencies where the USDP has strong support. The NLD should have considered such a strategy by now.

KZM: The decline in the popularity of the NLD can be attributed to the performance of individual lawmakers, individual chief ministers appointed by the NLD and the Cabinet. For example, the NLD won all three seats in Mandalay.  But in Yangon, it only won one seat. It can be said that the popularity of the Yangon Region chief minister and his government has declined over the past year. People are pointing out his poor performance. There are many things [contributing to this] such as the arrest of journalists, and complaints about YBS [Yangon Bus Service]. And there may also be other things. What is your assessment of individual lawmakers and chief ministers?

KP: I think the performance of individual lawmakers is very important. It is OK if some citizens don't know what the government is doing. But it is important that lawmakers should meet their constituents at least once. If a lawmaker helps his constituent with a request, even if it is just one time and just over the phone, I am sure she will vote for him next time. If people are convinced that though the NLD can't improve the overall situation, NLD lawmakers stand by them and are helping them, this will be a great advantage for the party. It is important that lawmakers work hard to the best of their capacity and stand by the people. Again, whatever we do, it can't be achieved by lawmakers alone. We can just act as mediators to fulfill the requirements of the people. So, the capacity of ministers and chief ministers and their willingness to serve the people are also very important. As Yangon is a huge region, there may be many problems. The Yangon regional government is doing what it can. But it has some disagreements with the regional parliament. Both the government and parliament are working, but there are cases when the two have no consensus. It largely depends on the party's policies for properly training ministers and lawmakers. It is very important that the government, parliament and party work together. There are many reforms we have been undertaking.

KZM: The government has made some reforms. There were reports that the NLD would change ministers who performed poorly. But, more than two years into its administration, it has done nothing regarding this. The government seems to be reluctant to reform systematically. What do you think, Ko Yan Myo Thein?

YMT: Yes, it seems that [the government] is facing dilemmas in certain cases.

KZM: The people showed their support when President U Win Myint said after taking office that he would take a tough line on corruption. But do people have questions about other issues?

YMT: People are watching how widely and effectively the president's words and guidelines will be taken into practice on the ground, and to what extent ministers and chief ministers will follow his guidelines. The entire population is watching this. It is important that the entire Cabinet and chief ministers are aware of this and work with considerable caution.

KP: There is a saying that it takes all sorts. So, lawmakers may be different. They are elected by the people; or in other words they are assigned to assume responsibilities by the people. They are elected to be public servants. They receive emoluments. I have talked to NLD lawmakers of the Union Parliament and they said that only one-third of NLD lawmakers work [hard], and two-thirds don't. This is what they say, and not the official statistics—that two-thirds don't work hard. What is your suggestion for them, Ma Kyi Pyar?

KP: Some joined the party before the election. The party accepted them out of necessity. Our leader asked the people not to judge the party's candidates but just vote for her party, and that she would monitor them. She has kept an eye on them, as she said. But in some cases, implementing ideas is harder than we think. There are lawmakers who work hard. Some want to work hard. But they are not very familiar with the policies of the party, and they are afraid of making mistakes. Some do not have experience as politicians and lawmakers and are not very clear about what to do in their first year. I don't expect much. If half [of the lawmakers] work hard, the country will change a lot.

KZM: So, the number of hardworking lawmakers is less than 50 percent now?

KP: We have no exact data about it. But I am frustrated [with the performance of some lawmakers] in some cases. In some cases, lawmakers work hard, but there are problems in collaborating with concerned departments. So, we need to think about various aspects. Rather than arguing about whether or not lawmakers work, I would like to urge them to work harder. It is time lawmakers bear in mind that those who are already working hard should work harder and those who have not worked hard enough should work harder.

KZM: Some critics say lawmakers including those from the NLD are being haughty. Is that so?

KP: Some of them need to improve their PR [public relations] skills. In my case, my countenance is solemn by nature.

KZM: The 2020 election will be more exciting [than the by-election]. But that is two years away. We will wait and see. Thank you for your contributions!

 

The post For NLD, By-Election Result a Wake-Up Call for 2020 appeared first on The Irrawaddy.
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