The Irrawaddy Magazine

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Ceasefire Cited as Ethnic UNFC Alliance Suspends Two Members Posted: 12 Nov 2015 05:06 AM PST Khun Myint Tun, left, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization, sits among other ethnic armed group leaders in Chiang Mai, Thailand, in September. (Photo: Nyein Nyein / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — The ethnic alliance known as the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) has temporarily suspended two of its member groups, the Chin National Front and Pa-O National Liberation Organization, after they were among eight signatories to a so-called nationwide ceasefire agreement in mid-October. The decision came following a three-day emergency meeting of the UNFC, which ended on Thursday, with leaders of the spurned groups claiming their suspensions were in the violation of Article 28 of the alliance's constitution. Khun Okkar, a Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO) patron and UNFC secretary, said: "We signed the NCA [nationwide ceasefire agreement] first, without proceeding [uniformly] as an alliance, that's why." The UNFC, formed in late 2010 to represent most of Burma's ethnic armed groups during peace negotiations with the government, has 11 active members, and this week's emergency meeting in Chiang Mai, Thailand, was attended by senior leaders of the groups. Article 28 of the UNFC's constitution covers the suspension or termination of groups' membership, which can only be done through the alliance's annual council meeting or at a separate conference held every two years. Salai Lian Hmong Sakhong, a CNF leader, told The Irrawaddy that the move was not in accordance with the UNFC charter. "They [the UNFC] did a thing that they should not do. They said they are angry that we signed the NCA—the text we all agreed in drafting," he told The Irrawaddy. Many UNFC members are also members of the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT), a body that supplanted the council in ethnic armed groups' peace negotiations with the government. The Oct. 15 signing of the "nationwide" ceasefire in Naypyidaw included eight non-state armed organizations including the CNF and PNLO, but several of the country's biggest ethnic rebel groups opted not to sign, bristling at the government's unwillingness to allow for a more inclusive accord. Lian Hmong Sakhong said a CNF representative who was present at the meeting this week objected to the decision because "it is against their own constitution and such an act could lead to disunity, and it is like a stabbing in the back." Khun Okkar said a UNFC decision on whether or not to fully suspend the two member groups would come after the alliance's annual federal council meeting next month. Khu Oo Reh, the UNFC general secretary, declined to comment on the issue, saying a statement would be released later on Thursday. The eight ethnic armed groups that signed the ceasefire accord last month, including the CNF and PNLO, also held a separate summit in Chiang Mai this week. The post Ceasefire Cited as Ethnic UNFC Alliance Suspends Two Members appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

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National News

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• Election Analysis: Ethnic parties fail to live up to expectations
• President to meet political parties on November 15
• Obama calls NLD leader, president
• Obama congratulates U Thein Sein over elections
• NLD leader seeks talks on transition
• Preliminary election results, Thursday, November 12
• U Wirathu ‘surprised’ by strong NLD victory
• YCDC nets K50 million from party posters
• Armed groups call on NLD to promote peace

Election Analysis: Ethnic parties fail to live up to expectations Posted: 12 Nov 2015 12:39 PM PST Just a week ago, many analysts were predicting the election result would be a close call between the NLD and the USDP-military alliance. Some pundits suggested neither would have an absolute majority in parliament and that Myanmar's ethnic parties, able to rely on deep-seated voter loyalty, would end up as king-makers. But amid widespread jubilations over the scale of the NLD's victory, initial results would suggest most of the ethic parties have not done well. People are already asking what went wrong.

President to meet political parties on November 15 Posted: 12 Nov 2015 09:22 AM PST President U Thein Sein has called political parties to a meeting in Yangon on November 15 to discuss the post-election political situation, party sources say.

Obama calls NLD leader, president Posted: 12 Nov 2015 09:15 AM PST US President Barack Obama has congratulated Daw Aung San Suu Kyi on her landslide victory and later called U Thein Sein to commend the government for holding successful elections, according to spokesmen for victor and loser.

Obama congratulates U Thein Sein over elections Posted: 12 Nov 2015 04:50 AM PST US President Barack Obama has called and congratulated U Thein Sein and his government for holding a successful "free and fair" election, according to U Ye Htut, spokesperson for the Myanmar president.

NLD leader seeks talks on transition Posted: 12 Nov 2015 12:32 AM PST The president and the Tatmadaw commander-in-chief have congratulated Daw Aung San Suu Kyi on her party's election victory and agreed to her request to hold talks following the crushing defeat of the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party.

Preliminary election results, Thursday, November 12 Posted: 12 Nov 2015 12:30 AM PST A map of preliminary national election results, as of 8:00AM, Thursday, November 12, 2015. For the latest news and results updates, check our live blog

U Wirathu ‘surprised’ by strong NLD victory Posted: 12 Nov 2015 12:18 AM PST The hardline monk denies affiliation with USDP, pointing out that his anti-Muslim rhetoric predates party's formation.

YCDC nets K50 million from party posters Posted: 12 Nov 2015 12:18 AM PST Advertising hoardings taken over by political parties for the duration of the campaign have now all been cleared of their partisan posters, Yangon city authorities announced yesterday.

Armed groups call on NLD to promote peace Posted: 12 Nov 2015 12:17 AM PST Two armed ethnic groups fighting the Tatmadaw in Shan State have called on a future NLD government to push forward the peace process.

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Shan Herald Agency for News

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• Opposition parties accuse Burma’s Vice President of vote rigging in his own re-election
• To Hopeland and Back: Comparative Peace Processes
• To Hopeland and Back: Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee Meets, Continued

Opposition parties accuse Burma’s Vice President of vote rigging in his own re-election Posted: 12 Nov 2015 02:36 AM PST The Vice President of Burma has been accused of vote rigging in Burma's general election by the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) and the National League for Democracy (NLD). Sai Mauk Kham , Vice President of Burma Dr. Sai Mauk Kham, the current Vice President and a candidate from the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), ran for a Lower House (Pyithu Hluttaw) seat in northern Shan State's Lashio Township in Sunday's general election. On Monday, the day after voting took place, the SNLD and NLD opposition released a joint statement to both the public and the Union Election Commission (UEC). The "letter of objection" claimed that 11,815 advanced votes had arrived at Lashio's election commission office at midnight on November 9, almost eight hours after the polls had closed and the ballot boxes had been sealed shut. Nearly all of these advanced votes endorsed the USDP in different constituencies within the township. Despite these claims, on Wednesday the UEC announced an election victory for Dr. Sai Mauk Kham. Sai Soe Myint, an SNLD candidate who was competing against Dr. Sai Mauk Kham for the same seat in Lashio, told SHAN that the SNLD and NLD contacted the UEC on the matter not due to the Vice President's victory, but because of inconsistencies with the ballots. "We objected because the advanced voting process is not right," Sai Soe Myint said. "There should not be that many advanced votes. And when we look at the advanced voting ballots, they all are similar; the bags are the same. They are very new." Sai Wan Leng Kham, an Upper House (Amyotha Hluttaw) candidate from SNLD in Lashio, said that after filing their complaint, the party had not received a response from the UEC. "We heard that the (UEC) told the media that if we wanted to file a complaint, we had to do it before the ballot box was opened," Sai Wan Leng Kham said. "If the ballots are already opened and the results released, that complaint cannot be recognized." The Election Commission in Lashio Township was scheduled to hold a press conference today in order to clarify the controversial issue, according to the UEC. "Although a candidate has been elected as a member of parliament, we still can sue them," said Sai Soe Myint, suggesting that the opposition may be contemplating legal action. According to a report published by The Myanmar Times on November 9, in 2010 Dr. Sai Mauk Kham allegedly won his current Upper House seat in Lashio Township with the help of over 26,000 advanced votes, placing him ahead of a candidate from the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP). Neither Dr. Sai Mauk Kham, who has served as Vice President since 2011, nor his party—USDP—could be reached for comment at the time of reporting. By Shan Herald Agency for News (S.H.A.N)

To Hopeland and Back: Comparative Peace Processes Posted: 11 Nov 2015 10:33 PM PST Tuesday, 20 October 2015 Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall take flak from both sides. (Unofficial UN motto, Robert Asporin) Today, I attend 3 meetings: ·         U Tin Aye, Chairman, Union Election Commission ·         EAOs workshop on Military Code of Conduct (CoC), liaison offices (L.O.s) and Terms of Reference (TOR) draft for JMCs For the first one, it has already been reported in the media and I have nothing more to add, except that the purpose of the meeting is to ask him not to cancel any constituencies within the EAOs control without consulting them first. Most of the work on the CoC and L.O.s, thanks to the rebels' Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) and Union Peacemaking Working Committee (UPWC), has already been done. The rest are additions made under the guidance of the KNU's Ta Do Moo, who has become an authority on the subject. What I would like to report here is the meeting with visiting experts on comparative peace processes: ·         Lt.-Gen. Rodolfo Garcia, on ceasefire negotiations with Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in the Philippines ·         Sanjoy Hazarika, an Assamese Tai, on the Naga peace process ·         Ms. Karin Landgren, on the peace processes in Liberia and Burundi The venue is (late UN Secretary General) U Thant's House, hosted by his grandson Dr. Thant Myint U and his energetic wife, Sofia Busch. I'm a slow learner and pick up only a little from each of these lectures. And these are the things I have learned from them: ·         Sanjoy: The Nagas signed a ceasefire with New Delhi in 1996, but 19 years after, no political agreement  has been reached ·         Karin: There are unlimited funds for the peace process in Burundi, so no one wants to end it ·         Gen. Garcia: The MILF peace agreement was signed in March 2014. But more than a year later, it is yet to be approved by the Congress The last one affects me, if no one else. The question that comes spontaneously is, of course, what if the present parliament (which is yet to be dissolved) does not also approve the NCA? The answer is clear, of course: Hardliners on both sides will win and all of us, except the people, will happily return to war. We later learn that the parliament is scheduled to meet on November 16, eight days after the elections. After the presentations wind up at 18:00, I return to the hotel with a newly retired general. Naturally we discuss politics and the upcoming polls. He tells me: like it or not, the military is the power in the country and The Lady will be well advised to come to terms with it. I pack up my things before going to bed. As usual I have a lot of reading material to carry and the airline won't be happy letting it go without charging me. But so far I've gotten by. I'll manage, so I say to myself before turning in. The next day, the taxi driver skillfully navigates me through Rangoon's notorious traffic and unloads me at the airport within an hour after leaving the hotel. At the airport, I meet people from a peace funding agency, who tell us (on the following day) that there will be no special favors given either to the signers or the non-signers. Well, I think that's fine with me, as long as the help comes. I have a cup of wine with my lunch on the plane and take a nap. When I open up my eyes again, we are already landing.  By Sai Khuensai / Director of Pyidaungsu Institute and Founder of Shan Herald Agency for News (S.H.A.N)

To Hopeland and Back: Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee Meets, Continued Posted: 11 Nov 2015 10:25 PM PST From 29-31 October, the Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee (JMC) members from both sides met at the Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) on Shweli Lane off 4 Wisara Road, Rangoon. My job is to render assistance and advice when the EAO's representatives—particularly those from the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army-South (RCSS/SSA-S)—need it. Friday, 30 October 2015 The best conqueror does not need to do battle. From Dao De Jing, by Lao Zi, whose philosophy reportedly forms the basis for Sun Tzu's The Art of War On October 15, after the NCA signing, I called on Sai Kham Leik, the Shans' celebrated songwriter, and his wife Dr Nwe Tin. We were old friends during my school days in Mandalay, 46 years ago. He showed me the lyrics the new song he had just written in honor of the peace process. The title at once catches my eyes and conquered my heart: "Draw equals win-win" I wake up remembering it and make up my mind to talk about it in my planned speech. It never comes. The two sides decide there will only be closing remarks at the end of the meeting tomorrow. Half of the day is spent re-reading the COC draft agreed upon yesterday and straightening out the language. Later in the day we discuss the JMC-S (State/Region level). ·         On the JMC-S for Rakhine State, it is agreed to refer the decision to the JICM meeting on 16-17 November. ·         On the JMC-Ss for the KNU/KNLA and the RCSS/SSA, the government explains that one regional commander is designated as the focal/contact point for dealing with each EAO, which has nothing to do with regrouping the EAO units inside one regional command area. So the misunderstandings are finally cleared. All the same, it is made known that the final decision will be coming from the corresponding EAOs. The meeting also agrees that the civilian vice-chairperson of the JMC should preferably be a woman. The tough nut to crack is the TOR (Terms of Reference) for the JMC. While the negotiation over the CoC took only half of a day, we learn the TOR will take us more than a day—in fact, several days, which is understandable, because while the CoC deals only with "Do's and Don'ts," the TOR is dealing with "How To."  We hold a dinner party today, not knowing whether or not we will have time to do it tomorrow. I chat with one of the BSO (Bureau of Special Operations) chiefs, Lt-Gen Min Naung, who tells me he's three-quarters Shan from Homalin (Hom Mark Lang means "Jack Tree Shade" in Shan). He used to be the commander at the Central Eastern Region Command. He says he's a great friend to Maj Deving, the RCSS/SSA-S's liaison officer there, but a greater friend to Wanhai, the headquarters of the RCSS's brother organization, Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army-North (SSPP/SSA-N). "I had tried to meet Gen. Pang Fa (leader of the SSPP/SSA-N), but somehow he was not able to meet me," he said. "So the relationship between us has not greatly developed as it should be." On my way back, one thing occurs or, to be precise, reoccurs to me. I ask myself why it is called "Bureau of Special Operations," whose initials are BSO, and not "Special Operations Bureau." Well, I smile to myself, the same thing must have occurred to the Burmese commanders too. Saturday, 31 October 2015 Those who come seeking peace without a treaty are plotting. From The Art of War by Sun Tzu Today, a lot has been decided. Also a lot is left undecided, pending the JMC-2 on 13-14 November. Decisions include: ·         Lt.-Gen. Ya Pyay - Chairman Maj.-Gen. Isaac Po - Vice Chairman #1 (#2 will be a civilian) Secretary #1  - Dr Sui Khar Secretary #2  - Col Wunna Aung (Kokang battle veteran) There are ten members on each side. Known NCA veterans include, on the government side: Lt.-Gen. Ye Aung, retired Lt.-Gen. Myint Soe, Dr. Min Zaw Oo and U Khin Maung Soe; and (on the EAO side) Ta Do Moo. ·         Lt.-Gen. Ye Aung is designated as an alternate chairman, when or if Lt.-Gen. Ya Pyay is unable to perform his duties. ·         Military CoC is adopted ·         There will be two civilian representatives from each side in the JMC-S (State/Region level) ·         Each JMC-S will form Verification Teams (VTs) to verify alleged violations ·         The JMC will be responsible for implementing the rehabilitation of refugees and IDPs until special committees are formed to deal with the matter During the afternoon coffee break (tea break for me), I am given a copy of the reply from the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) to the EAOs' leader Padoh Kwe Htoo Win. The two-page letter can be condensed to two points: The non-signatories will not join the signatories in drafting the Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD) and CoC, or working together in forming the JMCs and holding political dialogue (PD), because: 1.    The signatories had held the JICM and formed the JMC and UPDJC before consulting with the non-signatories 2.    Cooperation with the signatories can be only considered at the UNFC CEC meeting The implication seems to be quite clear: there might be no cooperation between the two camps from now on. This comes right after the invitation by the UWSP/UWSA to the non-signatories for a meeting at its Sino-Burmese stronghold, Panghsang (officially renamed Pan Kham) on 1-3 November. The big question mark now is: Is there going to be a new, pro-Chinese alliance? This is followed by smaller, but not less critical, questions: ·         If so, how will the Americans react to it? ·         Will there be an anti-Chinese alliance led by Naypyitaw? ·         And how will the EAOs respond to it? ·         What's happening? Is what we are doing ostensibly for peace, but really for war? I return to Green Hill, trying to comfort myself with the words from my teacher: Speak or act with a pure mind And happiness will follow you As your shadow, unshakable But I tell you. It's not easy. Sunday, 1 November 2015 The task of a military operation is to accord deceptively with the intentions of the enemy. From The Art of War by Sun Tzu Today is the EAOs' review session, where they discuss the timeline before the JMC-2, (13-14 November, in Naypyitaw) and at least two other matters: ·         Timeline: 5-7 November EAOs' JMC meeting in Chiang Mai 8-10 November EAOs' 'summit' also in Chiang Mai ·         The role of foreign governments and international organizations which, according to Paragraph 12 (C) of the NCA, will be "involved in the ongoing peace process, either as observers, advisors or to provide necessary technical assistance at different levels of the Joint Monitoring Committee." ·         The proposal by the military to include the Security Sector Reform/Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (SSR/DDR) in the JMC's job description All decide that the last two issues will be referred to the 'summit.' Anyway, I'm back to Chiang Mai on the next day. My son, who is at the airport to pick me up, later counts the reimbursements in Burmese currency for my expenses during the last four trips I have made, and say I'm now a proud millionaire. "How much?" I ask him. He replies it's about 1.3 million kyat, the equivalent of $1,000. So I'm a millionaire now, but not a rich man. By Sai Khuensai / Director of Pyidaungsu Institute and Founder of Shan Herald Agency for News (S.H.A.N)

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