Wednesday, July 11, 2018

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine

Analysis: Military Chief Says Tatmadaw Wants Peace — but Not Because It’s Weak

Posted: 11 Jul 2018 09:02 AM PDT

NAYPYITAW — The Myanmar government and the military (or Tatmadaw) are actively participating in the peace process — but this should not be misread as a sign of weakness on the part of the armed forces, said commander-in-chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing in his speech on the first day of the third session of the 21st-Century Panglong Peace Conference on Wednesday.

The senior general said that "stakeholders should be particularly aware that the government and the Tatmadaw are actively leading the peace process today not because we are weak, but because we are committed to the interests of the state and the national ethnic people, and we want to end the armed conflicts." He added, "The sound of guns will become silent if all the groups with the true wish for peace observe the agreement. All must control their own men, instead of giving groundless reasons."

The Army chief criticized ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), saying they should, "work in accordance with international peace principles," instead of wasting time on discussions that are not related to peace. Once peace is attained, he said, the focus can switch to "implementation of future activities in accordance with democratic principles."

His comments are believed to be in response to a proposal from EAOs at informal talks that the Tatmadaw's role in political dialogue be ended over the next 10 years or so.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a former general told The Irrawaddy: "EAOs want political dialogue to start in 2030; they also want the military appointees in Parliament to be phased out starting from 2020."

The pursuit of peace through the implementation of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) continues to face challenges because fighting between the Tatmadaw and NCA signatories has not fully ceased. Clashes between the Restoration Council of Shan State and the Tatmadaw erupted anew on Monday, just two days before the latest session of the peace conference began.

Regarding the integration of armed forces and establishing a democracy- and federalism-based Union, the Army chief said, "Currently, the ending of armed struggle must be the top priority for establishment of a Union system based on democracy and federalism."

The senior-general added that, "In any country, regardless of whether it practices democracy or any other system, they have only one Armed Forces. Hence, the ethnic groups should work in accordance with international peace principles." The idea of having a single, Federal Army is one proposal, but the EAOs and the Tatmadaw have yet to agree on the idea.

Peace resources 'lacking' 

Defending the military's role in the country's politics and in peace building, Sen-Gen Min Aung Hlaing said a better foundation for peace was still needed, but reiterated that the EAOs who have yet to do so need to sign the NCA.

The commander-in-chief highlighted that, "Although our country is rich in natural resources, we are still in need of the resources for peace. It is the objective condition none of us can ignore."

He insisted that "the Tatmadaw made constructive efforts for safeguarding national independence and sovereignty and ensuring national unity and non-disintegration of the Union by actively participating in the successive governments' endeavors to achieve internal peace."

Some delegates attending the conference were concerned that the Army chief's highlighting of the strength of the Tatmadaw's forces, and the speech in general, would affect the negotiation process with the EAOs — both those that are NCA signatories and those that are not.

Addressing the conference on behalf of the NCA signatories, General Saw Mutu Say Poe of the Karen National Union said peace cannot be built through force, but only through trust, understanding and goodwill.

FPNCC attending 'with hope'

Although the government has not yet persuaded all of the active EAOs to sign the peace pact, 19 of the groups are participating in the third session of the 21st-Century Panglong Peace Conference. Seven members of the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC), a northeastern-based alliance led by the United Wa State Army (UWSA), are attending the event with the help of China. Some FPNCC members also attended the last session in May 2017.

However, the government did not invite the alliance itself; the Army chief met with four FPNCC members — the UWSA, KIO, NDAA and Shan State Progressive Party — on Wednesday afternoon and State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will meet each of its member organizations separately tomorrow.

Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/KIA) vice chairman General Gun Maw told reporters in Naypyitaw on Tuesday afternoon that the group had come to the Naypyitaw conference "with hope."

Representatives of the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Kapland (NSCN-K) are also attending the conference.

This year, non-signatories of the NCA, including the FPNCC members, have been invited to share their thoughts at cluster-based discussions during the conference, but they will not participate in decision-making sessions.

All EAOs urged to sign NCA 

Both the National League for Democracy-led government and the Tatmadaw urged all EAOs to sign the NCA, though they used different tones in their arguments.

The Army chief rejected the claims of some ethnic armed groups — apparently referring to the Wa, Mongla and Naga — that there is no need to sign the NCA because they have not recently been actively engaged in conflict.

Since the NCA was first signed in October 2015 and approved by the Union Parliament in December of that year, the UWSA, National Democratic Alliance Army-Mongla and NSCN-K, all of which signed ceasefire agreements with the former ruling military junta, have argued that they do not need to sign the NCA, and expressed their will to participate in political dialogue only.

"To those who are saying they have already made agreements in the past and that there is no need to do so again, this may go against the current democratic ethics," Sen-Gen Min Aung Hlaing said.

The senior general added, "The NCA is just a name used for a ceasefire agreement. But its essence is broader and more comprehensive. Even the first point of the fundamental principle of the NCA is to build a democratic federal union aspired to not only by ethnic armed groups but also by other ethnic organizations."

In her address to the peace conference on Wednesday, State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi said people do not want to wait for peace, as peace and national reconciliation are the most essential and significant factors for Myanmar. She stressed that "peace cannot be achieved by force," but must be built through trust and mutual understanding.

"The NCA is a doorway for today's political dialogue, and those civilians in the ceasefire areas are enjoying safety and stability, which are the direct results of the NCA," she said.

She repeated that the "peace door" is always open to the EAOs and welcomed them to join the political negotiations, as a ceasefire alone is not enough. She said it is necessary to move forward and find the means to solve political problems through political negotiation.

The "NCA is a juncture for all of us to come together and a beginning to continue striving for our goal," she said.

"We do not stop with the NCA; we move on," she added, saying that the second part of the Union Accord is due to be signed next week after a six-day conference. The first part of the Union Accord signed last year includes 37 basic principles for a future federal constitution, but almost all of them are already part of the 2008 military-drafted Constitution.

Observers and the public are eager to see how much progress the delegates, politicians, EAO leaders, Tatmadaw and government officials will be able to make in discussions on additional federal principles in each sector.

The post Analysis: Military Chief Says Tatmadaw Wants Peace — but Not Because It's Weak appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Musician, Peace Activist Ko Ye Lwin Dies

Posted: 11 Jul 2018 07:41 AM PDT

YANGON — As both a songwriter and a peace activist, the flower seemed to be one of Ko Ye Lwin's favorite images. He saw artists as gardeners and their artwork as flowers. When they were forced to sell their creations for money as a last resort in order to make a living, he felt bad. He believed that the main goal of artists (and he probably included himself in this) was to tend their "flowers" and make the world beautiful. For his album — despite being a prolific songwriter, he produced only one album under his name (in fact, it also featured two of his closest musical colleagues) — he chose the title "Flower Tender's Hand". When he embarked on charity work for victims of war in Myanmar's conflict zones, where ethnic armed groups have been battling the country's army, he took the name "Flower's Path" — suggesting a place where freedom and peace flourish.

Long before his peace activism began in 2012, Ko Ye Lwin played the bass guitar for Medium Wave, the influential Myanmar classic rock band he co-founded with his fellow musicians in the early 1980s. They chose the name, he recalled, to reflect the band's musical identity — neither recognizably Asian nor Western. No one who has heard the band's music can deny that the name fits. Lyrically, along with his famous fellow songwriters Ko Ne Win and the late Ko Maung Maung, he co-wrote many beloved songs with themes based on love, endurance and philosophy. Under Socialist Myanmar, their contribution to the modern music scene was so unique and innovative that no discussion of the country's music industry is complete without it.

Hailing from a provincial town in Bago Region, Ko Ye Lwin grew up in a musical, Christian family. With shoulder-length hair and a silvery beard that hung down to his chest, he bore a striking resemblance to Billy Gibbons of ZZ Top when he was on stage — especially in his cowboy hat and sunglasses. Beneath his soft-spoken, kind manner lay the heart of a true revolutionary. This side of him emerged during the 2007 Saffron Revolution when Buddhist monks took to the streets to defy the then-ruling military government. Ko Ye Lwin joined the nonviolent protests, reciting verses from the Metta (loving kindness) Sutta. When the protest was crushed, he was arrested and detained for months. As a punishment, the then government refused to allow his name to appear in public, even on album jackets.

He took to peace activism with a group of young musicians, launching weekly fundraising gigs held at many of Yangon's ubiquitous teashops in 2012. Under the motto "People helping people," Flower's Path was initially formed to help the tens of thousands of civilians victimized by the raging war between government troops and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in northernmost Myanmar. Apart from the peace fundraising activities, he and his team campaigned for the National League for Democracy prior to 2015's general election by traveling around the country, putting into action his belief that everyone has an obligation to push for change. "It won't happen if we just wait for it," he said. His involvement in the campaigns — which kept him traveling around the country despite his advancing age — earned him the respect of NLD leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, who affectionately referred to him as "Saya Gyi" (Master).

While the political change he longed for materialized with the NLD's electoral victory, he was no doubt disappointed with the fact that the civil war has continued under the new administration. Given his peaceful nature, and the fact that he had witnessed the hardship experienced by IDPs in the camps, ending conflict was a preoccupation for him. According to those supporters who were nursing him in his ill health, he asked for updates on the country's peace process even on his deathbed. Ko Ye Lwin passed away on Tuesday — coincidentally, on the eve of the Union Peace Conference, which brings the government, military and representatives of the ethnic armed groups together in a search for peace…for the third time.

The post Musician, Peace Activist Ko Ye Lwin Dies appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

U.S. Slaps Sanctions on 2 Ministries Over Failure to Accept Deportees

Posted: 11 Jul 2018 07:22 AM PDT

YANGON — The U.S Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has imposed sanctions on senior officials at two Myanmar Ministries — including one controlled by the military — for failing to cooperate in accepting Myanmar citizens ordered to be deported from the U.S.

DHS on Tuesday ordered the U.S. Embassy in Yangon to begin denying visas to officials at the director-general level and above at the Ministry of Labor, Immigration and Population (MOLIP) and the Ministry of Home Affairs (MOHA). The sanctions also apply to the officials' immediate family members.

According to DHS' official statement, the new restrictions apply to business and tourist visas.

U.S. Embassy spokesperson Aryani Manring told The Irrawaddy, "Myanmar has repeatedly failed to issue travel documents for individuals under final order of removal from the United States."

The U.S. is one of the major destinations for refugees from Myanmar, a large number of whom entered the country around 2008. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, approximately 110,000 refugees from Myanmar have settled in the U.S.

At the Home Affairs Ministry, the officials affected by the visa sanctions are Union Home Affairs Minister Lieutenant-General Kyaw Swe; and Major-General Aung Soe, the deputy minister. The Home Affairs Ministry oversees the Police Force, General Administration Department, Bureau of Special Investigation Department, Prisons Department and Fire Services Department.

At the Ministry of Labor, Immigration and Population, Union Minister U Thein Swe is affected by the visa sanctions. The ministry's sub-departments are the Department of Labor, Social Security Board, Factory and General Labor Laws Inspection Department, and Department of Labor Relations. According to DHS, both senior level officials and family members are to be denied business and tourist visas to enter the U.S.

There are currently no restrictions on student visas for the affected officials or their immediate family members, the embassy spokesperson said.

The suspension will remain in place until the secretary of homeland security notifies the U.S. secretary of state that cooperation on removals has improved to an acceptable level. The DHS also placed sanctions on the government of Laos at the same time, according to the statement.

According to DHS, a deportation order is issued when a non-US citizen violates the terms of their visa, is found to be undocumented, or commits a crime on U.S. soil. If a person is sentenced for a crime, after serving their prison term he or she held for up to 180 days as the U.S. government processes them for deportation.

The U.S. has negotiated deportation procedures under a memorandum of understanding framework agreement with individual countries. When a country fails to follow the MoU agreement and refuses to accept their citizens slated for deportation, they are recognized as "recalcitrant" and placed on a list of uncooperative countries. Currently, Myanmar and Laos are on the recalcitrant countries list, according to DHS.

"For many years, State and the Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Customs Enforcement [ICE] have worked at all levels with countries that refuse to accept their nationals with final orders of removal," Aryani Manring said.

"We consider all options at our disposal, taking into account complex bilateral relationships, foreign policy priorities, and other extenuating circumstances. In many cases, diplomatic efforts are successful in addressing the problem," she added.

DHS said that due to Myanmar's delay or refusal to issue travel documents to or accept their nationals within the specified time period, ICE may be required to release dangerous criminals into communities across the U.S.

"We believe that this step [the sanctions] is therefore required at this time with the hope that Myanmar will cooperate on removals," Aryani Manring said.

DHS has not officially announced the number of Myanmar refugees ordered removed from the U.S. However, under President Donald Trump, more than 100,000 foreign nationals have been ordered deported. Many countries have refused to take them back, including 579 people from Myanmar, according to a DHS statement issued in November 2017.

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Karenni Youth Activists Sued Over Aung San Statue Protest

Posted: 11 Jul 2018 06:08 AM PDT

YANGON — Sixteen ethnic Karenni youth activists were sued on Tuesday for organizing a protest against plans to erect a statue of late independence hero General Aung San in the Karenni State capital, Loikaw, according to a police letter posted online.

About 1,000 local Karenni marched against the project in Loikaw on July 3. The demonstration turned violent after police blocked the marchers’ path to the park where the statue is to be erected.

A few days after the protest, the state’s chief minister met with the statue’s opponents and agreed to postponed the project. He ordered local officials to survey their constituents on whether they were in support of the statue and said he would make a final decision on whether to proceed at the end of the month.

Despite the reprieve, 16 of the youth activists who organized the protest were informed on Tuesday that they were being sued by the Loikaw Township administrator under articles 19 and 20 of the Peaceful Assembly Law, which regulates protests. One youth group claimed online that more than 16 activists were sued on Tuesday, but neither the group nor police could be reached for confirmation.

Ko Oattra Aung, a central committee member of the Union of Karenni State Youth, said the freedom of assembly and expression were enshrined in the Constitution and that the sued activists did not harm anyone.

Demonstrators march in Loikaw on Tuesday to protest the regional government's plan to erect a statue of General Aung San.

He said opponents of the statue would continue to resist the project despite the court action.

Eleven of the 16 activists sued on Tuesday were also sued earlier in the month at the Loikaw Township Court for incitement under Article 505 (b) and (c) of the Penal Code for distributing pamphlets opposing the statue ahead of the protest.

Of the 11, four have also been sued under Article 505 (b) and (c) at the Demoso Township court and made their first appearance there today. The four chose not to seek bail and were detained.

Ko Oattra Aung said he believed the authorities were planning to open similar cases in every townships where the activists distributed the pamphlets.

The incitement charge carries a maximum sentence of two years in prison. The charges under the Peaceful Assembly Law carry a maximum one-year sentence.

The post Karenni Youth Activists Sued Over Aung San Statue Protest appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Nationalist Sympathizer Arrested with Grenade in Rakhine

Posted: 11 Jul 2018 05:07 AM PDT

YANGON — An ethnic Arakan-Bamar man with apparent ultranationalist sympathies was found with a grenade and detained with his wife in Rakhine State on Monday after refusing demands from local authorities to leave a village cleared of Rohingya and razed to the ground in the wake of the violence that hit the area in August.

A border police major contacted by The Irrawaddy on Wednesday said local authorities found a grenade and several swords in the home of Tun Myint Oo and his wife, Ohmar Kyaw, in Maungdaw Township’s Thin Baw Gwe village. He said the couple was being held at Buthidaung prison and was charged by the local court under Article 505 (b) of the Penal Code for "threatening public tranquility," which carries a maximum two-year prison term.

Authorities have not revealed any details about the couple. But Union Election Commission (UEC) records, Facebook posts on Tun Myint Oo’s page and those of others, and corroboration from local residents offer some insight.

Failed Candidate

According to Tun Myint Oo’s campaign leaflet for the 2015 general election, he was born in Pakokku Township, Magwe Region, in 1973 and holds a National Registration Card as a Yangon resident. The records say he passed the 11th grade matriculation exam in 1994 and graduated from Malaysia’s Spectrum Technological College as an electronic engineering student in 2011.

According to his Facebook page, Tun Myint Oo returned from Malaysia in 2014. Photos posted to the account show him attending anti-Rohingya rallies led by Ma Ba Tha affiliates including the Myanmar National Network (MNN) and events in support of Article 59 (f) of the Constitution, which bars the country’s de facto leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, from the presidency.

The account says Tun Myint Oo also serves as a central executive committee member of the anti-Muslim Peace and Diversity Party (PDP).

In 2016 the party’s then chairman, Nay Myo Wai, a supporter of the nationalist Ma Ba Tha group, was detained for about two months while on trial for defaming then President U Htin Kyaw, State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and army chief Min Aung Hlaing on Facebook, though he was eventually acquitted and released. One of the offending posts showed his subjects in sexually suggestive positions.

UEC records say Tun Myint Oo contested the 2015 elections on the PDP ticket to represent Irrawaddy Region’s Kyonpyaw Township in the Upper House but lost to the National League for Democracy candidate.

The Irrawaddy called numbers for Tun Myint Oo and the MNN several times on Tuesday but without success.

Tun Myint Oo (on the left of the man holding the microphone) attends a protest against the UN in 2014. / Facebook

Well Connected

Tun Myint Oo ‘s Facebook page says he occasionally herded cattle donated by a branch of Ma Ba Tha for displaced and resettled families from Kyonpyaw to Maungdaw, a distance of about 100 miles.

Photos on his page show him next to U Wirathu on the ultranationalist monk’s multiple visits to Rakhine in 2015. They also show him in the company of other influential monks, government officials and military officers in the region.

His page says he has travelled between Yangon and Maungdaw frequently since 2015 and sometimes describes him as the leader of the PDP’s Maungdaw chapter.

His page also says that we witnessed the first set of attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) on government security outposts in Rakhine in October 2016, during which the militant Muslim group killed nine police officers and stole more than 60 firearms.

Tun Myint Oo (front row, fourth from right) poses for a photo at an event in support of a provision in the Constitution that bars Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from the presidency in Yangon in 2015. / Facebook

Settlement

Six months before ARSA’s second round of attacks, in August 2017, a post on Tun Myint Oo’s Facebook page says he built a pagoda in Maungdaw’s Kauktalone village. The page says it was officially approved by the township Sangha authority. By law, pagodas in the state also need approval from the General Administration Department, which is under the military’s control.

ARSA’s attacks that month targeted non-Muslim communities and displaced more than 30,000 people, many of whom fled to neighboring townships in northern Rakhine. The militants reportedly killed more than 50 civilians, mostly minority Hindus.

The Myanmar Army responded immediately with a crackdown in the region that has driven some 700,000 mostly Rohingya to neighboring Bangladesh, many with reports of arson, rape and extrajudicial killings by soldiers. The UN and US have called it ethnic cleansing, and rights groups want Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing brought before the International Criminal Court. The army claims its actions were part of a legitimate counter-insurgency operation.

On Facebook, Tun Myint Oo has called for donations from nationalist groups to help resettle the non-Muslims displaced by the violence. His page says he has helped settled nearly 100 Arakan households in Thin Baw Gwe village since December. Some of those settlers have confirmed to The Irrawaddy that Tun Myint Oo helped bring them to the village.

Local authorities have been telling the new arrivals to leave the village since early 2018 and most have since complied, relocating to other communities nearby.

UN officials and international aid groups aware of the resettlements in emptied Rohingya villages have complained to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and warned that they could spark further communal violence if the Rohingya families forced out of them are officially repatriated.

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‘We Have Made Ourselves Ready to Fulfill the Wishes, Expectations and Needs of the People’: USDP Spokesperson

Posted: 11 Jul 2018 04:51 AM PDT

U Thein Tun Oo, the spokesperson of the opposition Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), recently talked to The Irrawaddy's reporters Htet Naing Zaw, Moe Moe and Kyaw Myo about the party's plan to contest the by-election in November, its hopes for the 2020 general election, membership, views on the current political landscape, the country's peace process and the party's efforts to enhance its image.

What preparations has your party made to contest the upcoming by-election?

We've pondered whether or not to contest the by-election, mainly because of the lack of credibility of the election commission. If you ask me if we have complete trust in the commission now, we are not 100 percent there yet.

But we heard through our party offices in concerned constituencies that local people want us to contest the by-election. They want to rely on us because they believe that we would do our best to serve their interests.

What I can confirm is that we will contest for all of the seats in the country's various regions. But we won't contest in most of the states so that ethnic parties can contest there.

 Does your party expect to win the 2020 general election and form the government? What do you expect from that poll?

We hope to get a respectable share of the seats in the 2020 election and we have been training our party members to reach that goal. We listen to the voices of the people and point out the shortcomings of the government, as well as threats to the sovereignty of our country. We have made it easy for local people to communicate with our local chapters so that they can seek help anytime in case of emergencies or disasters. And we donate from our own pockets or solicit donations for disaster victims, for example, flood victims.

As we have made ourselves ready to fulfill the wishes, expectations and needs of the people, we believe that we will get a dignified share of seats in the 2020 election.

Has the membership of the USDP increased since U Than Htay took charge of the party?

Chairman U Than Htay has been reforming the party to make it acceptable to the people. Reforms have been made and are still being made to dispel people's suspicions.

And there are many people who have become frustrated with the performance of the ruling party. As a result, more than 1,000 people have joined our party under the leadership of U Than Htay. New members have joined the party this month in Magwe, Mandalay and Irrawaddy Region.

What do you think of the peace efforts of the current government?

There were many peace experts during the time of President U Thein Sein. They held cordial talks with [ethnic stakeholders] for peace although they previously fought with them. And many of them are still involved in the peace process under the new government. But I don't know what is wrong. We think the progress is slow compared to the time of previous government. Because of the slow progress, the current government has focused more on the peace process.

But, people want development and secured livelihoods. They want to be able to find jobs. But then, the current government only focuses on peace. So, there is no balance.

It is also the concept of our government that only when there is peace, will there be prosperity. But when we were in office, we worked for peace and livelihoods of the people at the same time. The current government has not done enough to secure the livelihoods of the people although it is working for peace.

Your party was formed by the army, and public perception of your party is therefore not very good. What reforms will your party make to polish its image?

The Union Solidarity and Development Association was formed under the Tatmadaw government. We have been two separate entities since we registered as a political party when the country switched to a multi-party democracy system according to the Constitution.

Parties are formed with people. And it is important to differentiate clearly between the policies of the party and individual members of the party.

If a party has no good policy, system or objective, then it is a bad party. But if the party has good policies, and some individual members of the party are not good, that has nothing to do with the party.

If people can distinguish between party policies and party members, they will be able to correctly judge if our party is good or not.

Our party was in office from 2010 to 2015. You can compare the current government with us year by year or over a five-year term. I don't believe that we don't match up to them. We are ready for comparison.

The ruling party has been in office for nearly three years. What do you think of its performance so far?    

I will point out what I think based on our policy. We focused on poverty reduction for the social development of the people. The then president [U Thein Sein] articulated it in his inaugural speech. Only when every individual earns a decent livelihood, will a country develop. If a government fails to take care of the livelihoods of its individuals, public support will decline over time. This is our opinion.

Another policy that we've always talked about is Our Three Main National Causes—non-disintegration of the Union, non-disintegration of national solidarity and perpetuity of sovereignty. We work based on these three principles to avoid foreign interference in our internal affairs. People will understand the advantages and disadvantages of the policies of the current government regarding this.

If the government wants to establish rule of law, it is necessary that law enforcement organizations work strictly in line with the law. Only then, will it be able to handle it more effectively.

But we should welcome that their anti-corruption efforts are gaining momentum. It is not possible to completely root out corruption. I would suggest that the government should ensure a decent living for [poorly-paid] civil servants in fighting corruption.

It needs to strike a balance between fighting corruption and ensuring a decent living for civil servants. The government should also focus on educating people about corruption, I'd suggest.

There is widespread speculation that Myanmar Army Chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing will become the next president. The Tatmadaw is granted 25 percent of the seats constitutionally and people say that if USDP wins 26 percent in the next general election, the two could elect the senior-general as the next president. What do think about that?

We don't think about percentage. We honestly believe that we will win a respectable share of the seats. If we do that and there is support for us, the person who people really want and need will become the president.

Translated from Burmese by Thet Ko Ko.

The post 'We Have Made Ourselves Ready to Fulfill the Wishes, Expectations and Needs of the People': USDP Spokesperson appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Hundreds of Shan Villagers Flee Mong Kung as Tatmadaw Assaults RCSS Positions

Posted: 11 Jul 2018 04:44 AM PDT

MON STATE — More than 450 ethnic Shan have been displaced from five villages in Mong Kung Township, Shan State, by three days of fighting between the Myanmar Army and RCSS/SSA-South troops, according to local sources.

Sai Sam Mong, a lawmaker from Shan's Kyethi Township, told The Irrawaddy that the villagers fled Tuesday and Wednesday amid near constant fighting near their villages.

"They fled early in the morning. In total there were 451 villagers. They fled from five villages today [Wednesday] and yesterday," Sai Sam Mong said.

All of the displaced people were sheltering at a Shan Buddhist monastery, where monks had offered them food. The IDPs will need more supplies, as they do not know when they will be able to return to their villages.

Authorities from Mong Kung planned to visit the IDPs today and will distribute some food, according to Sai Sam Mong.

The IDPs were able to hear artillery fire on Wednesday morning, according to Sai Sam Mong, who visited to IDPs at the monastery on the same day.

The fighting took place in forested areas not far from the IDPs' villages, and some shells had landed in their rice fields, forcing them to flee.

On Tuesday, the fighting lasted almost the whole day, according to local IDPs. They said the latest round of fighting erupted the previous day when the Myanmar Army attacked an RCSS base in the area.

"We heard the fighting from 7 a.m. until nightfall [on Tuesday]. Some IDPs fled without any belongings because they were so afraid of the artillery," Sai Sam Mong said.

According to local IDPs, prior to the latest attack, the Myanmar Army had not been active in the area since the RCSS signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) in October 2015.

The Myanmar Army's attack followed a warning to RCSS troops to return to their old bases from new areas in southern Shan that the Tatmadaw claims are off limits to the ethnic armed organization under the terms of the NCA.

More Myanmar Army troops have been deployed in RCSS areas recently, and the Tatmadaw has engaged in large troop movements, according to the RCSS.

Lieutenant-Colonel Sai Oo, an RCSS spokesperson, said the current attacks by the Myanmar Army were related to their warning last week.

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Mon State Resources Ministry Warns Antimony Plants to Control Fumes

Posted: 10 Jul 2018 11:53 PM PDT

MOULMEIN, Mon State — The Mon State Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation has warned that it will take action against antimony plants in the Moulmein Industrial Zone if they do not control their fumes.

"We have issued guidelines regarding environmental conservation. If a factory exceeds the emission standards, it has to firstly control, secondly reduce, and thirdly meet the emission standards. If they don't follow these guidelines, we will take action according to procedures," said Mon State natural resources and environmental conservation minister Dr. Min Kyi Win.

Recently, the state environmental conservation department measured air pollutants released by antimony plants in Moulmein Industrial Zone for three days.

There are six antimony plants in the industrial zone and the sulfur dioxide emission levels were high at two of the plants, said the department.

"We have instructed them to install air pollutant control equipment to reduce their sulfur dioxide emission," said Dr. Min Kyi Win.

The department has also instructed other plants in low-lying areas to increase the height of their chimneys by 30 feet.

The department has also required the antimony plants to design environmental management plans and explain them to local residents.

Locals in the neighborhood of the industrial zone claimed that some plants do not properly store ore and coal, and when it rains, water polluted with antimony and coal particles flow into their farms.

Translated from Burmese by Thet Ko Ko.

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Malaysia Asks Macau to Detain Financier Jho Low After He Flees HK

Posted: 10 Jul 2018 09:42 PM PDT

KUALA LUMPUR — Malaysian police on Tuesday said they had asked Macau authorities to detain Malaysian financier Low Taek Jho, who they believe evaded arrest in Hong Kong and escaped via ferry to the nearby island.

Low, or Jho Low as he is known, has been identified by Malaysian and US investigators as a key figure in the multi-billion dollar 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal.

US prosecutors have alleged $4.5 billion was misappropriated from 1MDB by high-level officials of the fund and their associates. The US Department of Justice has filed several lawsuits to claim about $1.7 billion in assets believed to have been stolen from 1MDB, including a Picasso painting, jewelry and a $265 million yacht.

In an effort to detain Low, Malaysian police have also applied for an Interpol red notice to seek assistance from the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, India, Myanmar, China and Hong Kong, Inspector-General of police Mohamad Fuzi Harun was quoted as saying in a report by national news agency Bernama.

Fuzi said a request has also been made to Taiwan via diplomatic channels.

“Prior to this, we had deployed a team to Hong Kong to track down Jho Low after being tipped off by the authorities there. However, the fugitive had fled to Macau by sea when the team arrived,” Fuzi said.

“Now we have to wait for a response from Macau in order for us to track down Jho Low.”

The Macau judiciary police said they had received the request from Malaysia, were verifying its content, “and will provide the information as requested by the country concerned as soon as possible.”

Last week, Malaysia’s immigration department said it cancelled Low’s passport on June 15 at the request of the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission to help with investigations into the 1MDB scandal, Bernama said.

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Japanese PM to Visit Flood Disaster Area, New Warnings Issued

Posted: 10 Jul 2018 09:34 PM PDT

KUMANO, Japan — Prime Minister Shinzo Abe headed for the flood-stricken western part of Japan on Wednesday as the death toll from the worst weather disaster in 36 years passed 160 and health worries increased amid scorching heat and the possibility of new floods.

Torrential rain unleashed floods and landslides in western Japan last week, bringing death and destruction in particular to neighborhoods built decades ago near steep slopes.

At least 161 people were killed and 57 are missing, NHK national television said, in Japan’s worst weather disaster since 1982.

Abe, who cancelled an overseas trip to deal with the disaster, has been criticized after a photograph circulated on Twitter showing him and his defense minister at a party with lawmakers just as the rains intensified.

He was set to visit Okayama prefecture, one of the worst hit areas, later on Wednesday.

Abe is up for re-election as party leader in September and has seen his support rates edge back up after taking a hit over a cronyism scandal earlier this year. His government pledged an initial $4 billion towards recovery on Tuesday, with the chance of a special budget later if needed.

Scorching sun beat down as rescuers combed through heaps of wood and thickly caked mud in an increasingly grim search.

With temperatures of 33 degrees Celsius (91 degrees Fahrenheit) or higher predicted for the devastated areas in Okayama and Hiroshima prefectures, attention was turning to preventing heat-stroke among rescue workers and in evacuation centers where thousands of people sought shelter.

People sat cross-legged on thin mats on a gymnasium floor in one center, plastic bags of belongings piled around them and bedding folded off to the side. Portable fans turned slowly here and there as children shrieked.

Officials turned to social media to warn of the additional danger of food-borne illnesses, counseling people to wash their hands and take other measures against food poisoning.

Evacuation orders were issued for 25 households in the city of Fukuyama after cracks were found in a reservoir.

Water accumulating behind piles of debris blocking rivers also posed a growing danger, as was seen on Monday when a swollen river began pouring into a residential area, prompting additional evacuation orders.

The intensifying heat was also contributing to unsettled weather conditions likely to lead to thunderstorms later on Wednesday, with authorities warning new landslides could easily be set off on mountainsides saturated with water.

The post Japanese PM to Visit Flood Disaster Area, New Warnings Issued appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

‘Mission Accomplished’ as Thailand and the World Welcome Cave Rescue

Posted: 10 Jul 2018 09:26 PM PDT

CHIANG RAI, Thailand — Thais reacted with relief, gratitude and exhilaration on Wednesday after the successful rescue of the last group of 12 boys and their soccer coach from a flooded cave complex, ending a 17-day ordeal that gripped Thailand and the world.

The last members of the group of 13 from the “Wild Boars” soccer team were brought out of the flooded cave on Tuesday night and taken by helicopter and then by road to a hospital about 70 km (45 miles) from the Tham Luang cave.

They joined their teammates in quarantine there and will remain in hospital.

The group was rescued after 17 days inside the vast cave complex in northern Thailand where they had ventured after soccer practice on June 23.

The rescue dominated front-page headlines in Thailand.

“All Wild Boars Saved,” read one headline.

“Hooyah! Mission accomplished,” read another, echoing the rallying cry of the Thai navy SEALs involved in the rescue.

The hashtag #Hooyah was also hugely popular with Thai netizens wanting to show their support for the hundreds of rescuers, including divers from around the world, who helped to get the boys out.

Rescue mission chief Narongsak Osottanakorn thanked people in Thailand and around the world at a news conference on Tuesday for their well wishes and support.

“This mission was successful because we had power. The power of love. Everybody sent it to the 13,” Narongsak told reporters.

He confirmed that three navy SEALs and a doctor who had been with the boys inside the cave also emerged safely.

The boys’ parents would be able to visit them, he said.

“They have gone home to shower … and then they will be able to visit them, through a glass panel, at the hospital,” Narongsak told reporters.

"Amazing News"

Audiences around the world cheered the team’s successful rescue after the saga generated messages of help, prayers and – finally – expressions of relief.

The drama in Thailand has even resonated as far as Russia, where the World Cup is reaching its final stages. Players from France and England welcomed news of the rescue and sent their best wishes to the “Wild Boars” on Twitter.

“This victory goes to the heroes of the day, well done boys, you are so strong,” French midfielder Paul Pogba tweeted after his team beat Belgium 1-0 overnight to reach the final.

Manchester City and England defender Kyle Walker, whose team faces Croatia in the second semi-final later on Wednesday, said he wanted to send shirts to the boys.

“Amazing news that all of the Thai kids are out of the cave safely!” Walker tweeted.

A Google search on Tuesday for the words “Thai cave rescue” revealed 359 million results, with interest peaking since last week when British divers found the boys and the rescue mission began.

Araya Hargate, one Thailand’s top actresses and a L’Oreal cosmetics brand ambassador, shared a cartoon of the boys surrounded by rescuers on her Instagram page, which has 7.9 million followers.

“After all … the world is not such a bad place #humanityfaithrestored #thailandcaverescue,” the actress, known in Thailand as “Chompoo," wrote.

Thai officials were expected to hold a news conference on Wednesday to provide updates on the health of the 12 boys and their 25-year-old coach.

Narongsak told reporters that a detailed breakdown of the escape route and rescue mission would also be provided.

The post 'Mission Accomplished' as Thailand and the World Welcome Cave Rescue appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Quick Repatriation of Rohingya Refugees is Not a Durable Solution

Posted: 10 Jul 2018 06:42 PM PDT

In August and September, massive refugee camps were reestablished in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, near the border with Myanmar. The refugees are largely from the Rohingya minority, which the Myanmar army expelled for the fourth time since 1978. This was a humanitarian catastrophe, followed by a miracle of sorts; in short order, refugee camps were established for 600,000 to 700,000 Rohingya refugees by the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and Bangladesh government without precipitating a war between Bangladesh and Myanmar, a cholera epidemic, famine or the other catastrophes that humanitarian aid prevents. Unfortunately, this success does not necessarily have a long-term solution embedded in it. History points to few simple solutions to such refugee situations, which always occur in the context of the political demands that caused them in the first place. Despite this history, the UNHCR and other international players insist that the best solution is a quick return of presumably apolitical refugees to Myanmar under the auspices of the National League for Democracy/military government. The problem is that this ignores the inherently politicized nature of both refugee situations, and particularly the refugees themselves.

Units of the Myanmar army asserted a national security crisis following an attack on border police posts by a small Islamic insurgent group, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), in August. Some 30 police officers died. The goals of ARSA were vague — presumably in the short run they wished to provoke a revolt among the Islamic populations of Myanmar against the government. However, in a massive response the Myanmar army quickly drove over 600,000 Rohingya into Bangladesh, and according to reports from foreign nongovernmental organizations in December, at least 6,700 died. What happened in Rakhine State has been called ethnic cleansing by the UN and others, and the Myanmar army is accused of crimes against humanity.

As for ARSA, their short-term strategy did not work and there has been no revolt in Myanmar. The danger is that ARSA will instead achieve a longer-term goal, which is to create a large population of radicalized and aggrieved refugees, a proportion of whom will be susceptible to the promises of violent Islamic extremism. Massive isolated refugee camps like those in Cox's Bazar provide an environment for radicalization; camps for Rwandans in Congo/Zaire and for Palestinians in the Middle East are recent extreme examples of this. Refugee camps are often short-term humanitarian blessings, but in the longer run they can be a curse for the countries involved, and especially for the refugees themselves.

This brings up an issue for the international community, which always seeks quick "durable" solutions in any refugee crisis. Despite diplomatic protestations, the Rohingya crisis of 2017 is now at a standstill, as any student of refugee history knows. The political situation is too complicated, and the logistics problems for such a return too daunting. So, at the insistence of Bangladesh, the international community is funding the camps "temporarily" while placing the blame for the refugee crisis on the shoulders of Myanmar. The refugees themselves of course are reluctant to seek the "protection" of Myanmar, the country that expelled them and asserts that many are foreigners. Indeed, these refugees are well aware that this is the fourth expulsion exercise in Rakhine since 1978 and that the three previous ones, in which large numbers did repatriate, resulted in further expulsions a few years later. So as usual, refugees are caught in the middle. Undoubtedly, most are just scared — legitimately afraid to "voluntarily" repatriate to Myanmar, where the army remains in power, but also prevented from moving to other parts of Bangladesh by that country's army. Many ask for resettlement in a third country, but Southeast Asian nations and the West are as reluctant as Bangladesh to admit refugees. And so UN agencies establish "temporary" refugee camps of bamboo and plastic in the hope that the refugee problem will somehow disappear when the "durable solution" of voluntary repatriation magically appears.

So the likely long-term de facto policy is the status quo of temporariness. "Temporary" refugee camps require little immediate sacrifice in the form of refugee resettlement or political compromise by donors, home countries, host countries or neighboring countries. This is why large "temporary" refugee camps are found in places like Lebanon, Gaza, Jordan, Thailand and Tanzania decades after establishment. In the Middle East, Palestinians were first housed in camps beginning in 1948. In central Africa, large temporary camps for Congolese, Rwandans and Burundians were established in 1993 following earlier decades of refugee flight. In Thailand, camps for refugees from Myanmar were established in 1984. In such temporary camps, life is remolded around real grievances of displacement, contributing to insurgency, host country resentment and potential political instability. And in this fashion the original goals of organizations like ARSA, which sought to radicalize aggrieved populations, are realized.

The problem is that truly "durable" solutions require political sacrifice by receiving countries (Bangladesh), home countries (Myanmar), stable neighboring countries and third countries further afield. Durable refugee solutions in Western Europe after World War II, Indochina after the refugee crises of 1975 and elsewhere all involved global sacrifice, not just another quick return, as wished for by the UN and legitimately feared by the refugees.

So why is the fiction of quick refugee return embedded in the UN’s simplistic dogma that there are only three "durable solutions" for refugees: return to the home country, legal resettlement in the host country, and legal resettlement in a third country? Since Bangladesh and other countries ruled out legal resettlement as a matter of policy, refugees are told by the UNHCR that the only "choice" is "voluntary" return to Myanmar, where new camps will be established in a land which has expelled Rohingya, and others, many times since independence. But in fact there are other solutions. Refugees everywhere quietly know that in practice there are at least five other de facto "solutions" to refugee crises. For example, there is continued long-term confinement (e.g. Palestinians in Gaza); illegal migration (e.g. people from Myanmar to Thailand, Central Americans to the United States, and Syrians to the EU); forced repatriation and war (Rwandans in the Great Lakes Region); massacres and further war (Rwandans in Congo in 1997); establishment of de facto states (Afghans in Pakistan's border areas, and Palestinians in Gaza); and de facto extra-legal integration into labor markets (Mexicans in the United States, people from Myanmar in Thailand).  And then, always in the back of all Rohingya minds, are the memories of previous expulsions and quick repatriations in 1978, 1991-1992 and 2012-2013.

Such a revised policy menu means that addressing the status of refugee camps in Cox's Bazar is urgent. The orderly conclusion assumed by the international diplomatic community to a disorderly refugee crisis is actually pretty unlikely — only the legalistic minds of the UN and powerful states could imagine otherwise. As for the refugees in Cox's Bazar, they find themselves in the refugee's classic paradox: They must remain on the move, even as they can go nowhere. This paradox is familiar in refugee studies, and it is one rarely navigated well, as the refugees of Central Africa's forests, Central America's wars and Gaza well know. What might such de facto "solutions" for Cox's Bazar look like in five or 10 years?  Here are some plausible outcomes:

— Forced repatriation by Bangladeshi and/or the Myanmar army to Myanmar. The result might be deadly in the way forced repatriation to Congo/Zaire by the region's militaries in 1996-1997 was, when several hundred thousand refugees were lost in Congo's forests and the deadliest war since World War II was triggered. Or as in previous cases in Rakhine and Bangladesh, one repatriation plants the seed for the next expulsion.

— Continued existence of the Cox's Bazar camps. In the long run farmers will be deskilled and youth will become susceptible to recruitment by Islamic terrorist organizations like ISIS and ARSA. A likely by-product will be continued insurgency in Myanmar.

— Continued surreptitious migration to neighboring countries, particularly to South and Southeast Asia's burgeoning cities, where there is demand for cheap labor.

— Establishment of a volatile de facto refugee sub-state in Bangladesh, such as in Gaza and the Pakistani borderlands.

— Orderly resettlement of refugees in urban and rural areas in Myanmar, Bangladesh and other countries.

The expansion of the Cox's Bazar refugee camps in 2017 was a humanitarian miracle. If the camps are still in Cox's Bazar in 2027, they will become a humanitarian catastrophe. Policy decisions today will shape what happens in the future.

Tony Waters is a faculty member of the Department of Peace Studies at Thailand’s Payap University.

The post Quick Repatriation of Rohingya Refugees is Not a Durable Solution appeared first on The Irrawaddy.
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