Tuesday, October 20, 2015

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine


Chin National Front Office Bombed in Tedim

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 05:14 AM PDT

The center of Tedim town in Chin State. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

The center of Tedim town in Chin State. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Two small bombs exploded inside the Chin National Front (CNF) liaison office in Tedim Township, northern Chin State, according to a member of the ethnic armed group.

The bombs exploded around 11pm on Monday evening, marking the second time the liaison office had been attacked after a similar incident last year.

"They did not use strong explosives," said Gho Khant Nan, a CNF officer. "The two bombs exploded at the same time in the office, but no one was there at that hour."

Gho Khant Nan said that there was an ongoing investigation into the attack, and the Burma Army had sent officers to provide assistance. He added that some Chin locals did not support the CNF, and speculated the group's participation in the Burmese government's "nationwide" ceasefire agreement.

A small explosive detonated under a car belonging to a CNF leader in Tedim in March 2014. Gho Khant Nan said that no investigation was launched at the time because of the small size of the explosive.

The CNF is one of eight armed groups that signed the government's ceasefire accord in Naypyidaw on Oct. 15. The group established its Tedim liaison office in 2003 after signing a bilateral ceasefire agreement with the government.

The post Chin National Front Office Bombed in Tedim appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Malaysia Opposition Plans No-Confidence Motion Against PM

Posted: 19 Oct 2015 10:33 PM PDT

 Malaysia's Prime Minister Najib Razak leaves parliament in Kuala Lumpur on Monday. (Photo: Olivia Harris / Reuters)

Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak leaves parliament in Kuala Lumpur on Monday. (Photo: Olivia Harris / Reuters)

KUALA LUMPUR — The chief of Malaysia’s newly formed opposition alliance will submit a no-confidence motion in parliament this week against Prime Minister Najib Razak, the head of the grouping said on Monday.

Najib’s tight grip on his United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) party has kept him in power despite public anger over alleged graft and financial mismanagement at strategic investment fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), whose advisory board the prime minister chairs.

But Najib’s grip appears to be loosening, and his position could become precarious if he loses some crucial upcoming votes in parliament.

“We will have a motion of no confidence against the Prime Minister, to be tabled by myself as opposition leader,” said Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, the wife of jailed opposition politician Anwar Ibrahim, and the head of the new Pakatan Harapan alliance.

“The rationale is that we have to save this country.”

The move will be the opposition’s first such coordinated effort against Najib, Wan Azizah said, after party leaders decided to file a collective motion, retracting and taking over an individual motion submitted last week by one MP.

However, the opposition, which is about 25 seats short of a majority, is unlikely to win such a vote—provided the speaker does not reject the motion first. Wan Azizah did not say how the opposition would respond to such a rejection.

But the action adds to pressure on Najib after a report in July said investigators were looking into 1MDB and had found close to $700 million deposited in his personal bank account. Reuters has not been able to verify the report.

Najib has denied taking any money for personal gain while the Southeast Asia nation’s anti-corruption commission said the funds were a political donation from the Middle East.

Najib also faces pressure within UMNO, as the party’s old guard, led by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, calls for his resignation over his alleged involvement in the 1MDB scandal.

1MDB, with debts of more than $11 billion, is under investigation by authorities in several countries.

A Parliament inquiry into 1MDB was halted midway when Najib reshuffled his cabinet in July, moving several party leaders into government positions.

But Hasan Ariffin, the newly elected chief of parliament’s Public Accounts Committee (PAC), said on Monday the group was set to resume its inquiry into 1MDB, and it stayed “a priority”.

Wan Azizah’s alliance groups Anwar’s People’s Justice party, the largely ethnic Chinese Democratic Action Party and the newly formed Parti Amanah Negara. They united against Najib’s ruling coalition last month.

The post Malaysia Opposition Plans No-Confidence Motion Against PM appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Southeast Asia Set to Suffer for Months as Indonesia Fails to Douse Fires

Posted: 19 Oct 2015 10:10 PM PDT

 Indonesian environmental activists in Jakarta wear masks during a protest demanding the government to immediately resolve forest fires. (Photo: Beawiharta / Reuters)

Indonesian environmental activists in Jakarta wear masks during a protest demanding the government to immediately resolve forest fires. (Photo: Beawiharta / Reuters)

JAKARTA — Indonesian forest fires that have caused choking smoke to drift across Southeast Asia are spreading to new areas and are unlikely to be put out until next year, experts said on Monday.

Indonesia has come under increased pressure from its neighbours to contain the annual “haze” crisis, which is caused by slash-and-burn agriculture practices, largely on Sumatra and Kalimantan.

But it has failed to put out the fires, with “hot spots” growing in eastern parts of the country and industry officials and analysts estimating the smoke will last until early 2016.

“Maybe it will last until December and January,” said Herry Purnomo, a scientist at the Center for International Forestry Research, adding that hot spots had reached Papua, a region that usually avoids widespread fires.

“It is because people are opening new agriculture areas, like palm oil,” he said.

A senior official at a company active in Indonesia’s forested areas said the haze could continue until March.

Indonesia usually enters its wet season in October and November, but this year the country is expected to face moderate El Nino dry conditions which could strengthen until December and may hinder efforts to control the fires.

Indonesia’s national disaster management agency has made several forecasts for when the forest fires will be brought under control, many of which have now passed, but their latest target date is early November.

Indonesia has revoked the land licenses of PT Mega Alam Sentosa and state-owned PT Dyera Hutan Lestari, Rasio Rido Sani, the director general for law enforcement at the forestry ministry, told reporters late on Monday.

Both firms could not be reached for comment.

Last month, Indonesia ordered four companies to suspend operations for allegedly causing forest fires.

On the ground, NASA satellites detected 1,729 fire alerts across Indonesia on Wednesday, a national holiday, more than any single day in the last two years.

About half of the fires during the last week have been on carbon-rich peat land areas, mostly in South Sumatra, South and Central Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Papua.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo has increased government efforts to tackle the haze in recent weeks, making several visits to the worst hit areas and asking other countries for help, but apparently to little avail.

“We all know that the burned areas are now widening beyond normal conditions,” Widodo told reporters on Sunday. “…The efforts to extinguish the fires are ongoing now both by land and air."

The post Southeast Asia Set to Suffer for Months as Indonesia Fails to Douse Fires appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Teen’s Death in Indian Kashmir Mob Attack Sets Off Protests

Posted: 19 Oct 2015 09:34 PM PDT

 A protester throws back a teargas shell towards Indian police during a demonstration outside Kashmir's main mosque in Srinagar, October 16, 2015. (Photo: Danish Ismail / Reuters)

A protester throws back a teargas shell towards Indian police during a demonstration outside Kashmir's main mosque in Srinagar, October 16, 2015. (Photo: Danish Ismail / Reuters)

SRINAGAR — A general strike and curfew shut Indian-controlled Kashmir on Monday following the death of a Muslim teenager attacked by a Hindu mob over rumors of cows being slaughtered.

Hindus consider cows to be sacred, and slaughtering the animals is banned in most Indian states.

Businesses, schools and shops remained shut due to the strike called by anti-India separatists and traders to denounce the killing. State authorities canceled all university and college examinations on Monday fearing protests.

Thousands of people who attended Zahid Rasool's funeral in Botengo village in southern Kashmir shouted anti-Indian slogans demanding freedom from Indian rule.

Rasool and another truck driver were set ablaze by a mob after their vehicle stopped in the Hindu-dominated Udhampur neighborhood. A third person in the truck escaped unhurt. The injured were flown to New Delhi for treatment, but Rasool died from his burns on Sunday.

Police officer Danish Rana said nine people have been arrested in connection with Rasool's death.

Authorities laid razor wire across the main crossings and declared curfew in parts of Kashmir's capital city, Srinagar, and in nearby Anantnag town to stop protests and clashes.

"Go India, go back" and "We want freedom," the crowd shouted at Rasool's funeral. Clashes also erupted in Botengo village as security forces fired tear gas to stop rock-throwing protesters from marching to the nearby main highway.

Differences have deepened within Kashmir's ruling coalition, with the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party demanding a ban on slaughtering cows and selling beef in the Muslim-majority state.

A colonial-era law banned cow slaughter in Kashmir, but no one paid heed to it until a local court ordered its strict enforcement recently.

Muslims resented the order and later India's Supreme Court suspended it for two months.

Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a Hindu nationalist, took office last year, hard-line Hindus have been demanding that India ban beef sales. Most beef sold across India is buffalo meat.

There has been outrage across India after a 50-year-old Muslim man was beaten to death by a mob last month over rumors that his family had eaten beef for dinner. Last week, a village mob in northern India beat a Muslim man to death and injured four others, accusing them of smuggling cows to be slaughtered for beef.

The post Teen's Death in Indian Kashmir Mob Attack Sets Off Protests appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Return of Dollar Black Market Shows Limits of Reforms

Posted: 19 Oct 2015 08:58 PM PDT

 A newspaper vendor handles kyat in Rangoon. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

A newspaper vendor handles kyat in Rangoon. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Banks in Burma bought hundreds of millions of dollars in the black market this year, banking sources said, in a resurgence of an unregulated trade that flourished under military rule and has raised fears among foreign investors of backsliding on reforms.

Lenders say they were forced to turn to unlicensed brokers for scarce dollars to keep the wheels of trade turning, as the central bank's efforts to prop up the kyat currency threatened to freeze up the nascent financial system.

"We deliberately made our currency appreciate, while there was an actual depreciation happening," said a senior central bank official. "The whole informal market re-emerged, no transactions were happening through the banks any more. That's when we came to the brink of collapse."

The episode underscores the fragility of reforms introduced since a semi-civilian government took power in 2011 after decades of isolation from the international financial system.

Sources said the main motive for rolling back on reforms that introduced a managed kyat float in 2012 was to avoid inflation becoming an issue that could damage the government's standing ahead of a historic election on Nov. 8.

The Central Bank of Myanmar did not respond to Reuters requests for official comment.

Strains emerged in early 2015 as the central bank's official exchange rate diverged further and further from the rate offered on the black market.

International trade has grown quickly during the reform period, and as imports outpaced exports the trade deficit jumped to US$4.9 billion in the fiscal year ending March 31, from just under $92 million two years earlier, according to official data.

That has tightened the supply of dollars, with rising foreign direct investment and tourism not enough to fully plug the gap.

The chronic shortage of dollars worsened mid-year as exporters either held back dollars in the expectation of an eventual kyat devaluation or refused to sell at the official rate.

Banks turned instead to the informal market, using well-established brokers with systems that were put in place to skirt sanctions when Burma was an international pariah.

"They call it the black market but it's the real market," said Win Lwin, a senior manager at KBZ Bank. "It's very difficult for the banks to follow the rules."

Banks 'Have no Choice'

In interviews with Reuters, executives and traders at three Burmese banks said they had bought dollars in the informal market for clients needing to make international trade payments. All declined to be named, but said the practice was widespread.

"We have no choice," said one foreign exchange trader at a local bank. "We have to go to the black market."

Banks bought as much as $15 million a day through brokers, traders and executives estimated. The informal market purchases peaked in June and July when a dollar would buy you as much as 16 percent more kyat on the informal market.

Under pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, the central bank abandoned its defence of the currency after 10 months in July, allowing the kyat to devalue and increasing dollar supply.

The kyat is now down more than 20 percent for the year, making it one of the worst-performing frontier market currencies in 2015.

But without wider reforms to allow foreign banks to sell dollars in Burma, some traders and bankers believe it is only a matter of time before they are forced back into the informal dollar market.

"This whole thing could turn on a dime," said an executive at one of Burma's banks. "We all know how limited the central bank is for dollar supplies. They could say overnight—the party's over, we've run out of reserves."

The IMF estimates central bank reserves in dollar terms will reach around $5 billion at the end of this fiscal year, equivalent to around 2.5 percent of imports. The central bank declined to provide data on actual reserves.

Offshore Network

Burma's banks hold offshore accounts in Singapore to settle international trade.

To get dollars to those accounts, the banks paid brokers in Burma in kyat, the executives and traders said. Those brokers then used registered companies in Singapore to transfer dollars into the banks' offshore accounts.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore did not reply to questions on whether it was aware of the trades, had taken any action to prevent them or planned to do so.

"Financial institutions are required to monitor for and report any suspicious transactions," MAS said in an e-mail.

Electoral calculation may have played a part in the crisis, with the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party expected to fare poorly in what is being touted as Burma's first free and fair election in 25 years.

"The difficulty with the authorities was that they were of course concerned about inflation if the exchange rate depreciates," said Yongzheng Yang, who oversees Burma for the IMF and led a mission to Burma in June.

While banks are no longer buying black market dollars, many importers and exporters continue to do informal bilateral deals, said U Mya Than, chairman of Myanmar Oriental Bank and of the Yangon Foreign Exchange Market Committee.

"There is no scrutiny of transactions and no enforcement," he said.

That is a red flag for international banks entering Burma on the first licences granted since the reforms.

"The central bank should crack down on the black market," said the head of the treasury department at a foreign bank that has recently launched in Burma. "It's impossible to build a normal financial system if we have it here."

The post Return of Dollar Black Market Shows Limits of Reforms appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

National News

National News


After nationwide ceasefire signing, military, political committees formed

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 12:05 AM PDT

Fresh  from the signing of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) in Nay Pyi Taw on October 15, the government and the eight signatory armed ethnic groups have already begun working toward the next stage.

Commission to hold talks with armed groups and parties

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 12:04 AM PDT

The Union Election Commission will today meet representatives of eight armed ethnic groups that signed a nationwide ceasefire agreement with the government, ahead of a planned discussion with political parties.

Attacks on SSPP despite talks, pullback

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 12:03 AM PDT

The Shan State Progressive Party/Shan State Army-North said its positions were coming under continued attack by the Tatmadaw yesterday despite talks the armed ethnic group held with the government in Nay Pyi Taw over the weekend and its agreement to withdraw from a key base last week.

Overseas votes marred by limited registration, lack of ballot papers

Posted: 19 Oct 2015 11:59 PM PDT

The election is less than three weeks away, but overseas small numbers of Myanmar workers have already begun casting ballots – and encountering obstacles.

Amnesty push promised ahead of vote

Posted: 19 Oct 2015 11:58 PM PDT

All political prisoners, including students and activists arrested in the Letpadan crackdown, could be released under an amnesty before the November 8 elections, following an agreement reached with armed ethnic groups that signed last week's ceasefire agreement.

EU monitoring team promises no interference during polls

Posted: 19 Oct 2015 11:55 PM PDT

Electoral observers from the European Union are fanning out across the country ahead of next month's election – including the capital, Nay Pyi Taw.

Delays in identifying body found in creek

Posted: 19 Oct 2015 11:53 PM PDT

Damage and decomposition caused by five days of immersion in water will delay the identification of a heavily tattooed male body found floating in a Nay Pyi Taw creek, according to police.

Opposition fears social media punishments meted out unfairly

Posted: 19 Oct 2015 11:51 PM PDT

Yet another social media poster is paying a high price for baiting the Tatmadaw online, while a ruling party candidate who posted doctored explicit pictures of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi remains at large.

Absent witnesses called to court in long-running trial

Posted: 19 Oct 2015 11:47 PM PDT

A judge has accepted the demand of a prominent advocate for dispossessed farmers to subpoena prosecution witnesses, forcing their presence in court at his next hearing.

UNICEF begins hygiene training

Posted: 19 Oct 2015 11:46 PM PDT

Keep it clean, schoolchildren are being told. UNICEF is working with the ministries of health and education to educate children in the importance of washing their hands.

Shan Herald Agency for News

Shan Herald Agency for News


What lies ahead in the aftermath of Naypyitaw treaty signing ceremony?

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 05:13 AM PDT

It is unfortunate that the Union Solidarity and Development-Military (USDP-Military) regime has to resort to its Plan B, partial-ceasefire signing, for its original plan of getting all 15 ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) aboard to materialize the real nationwide ceasefire has come to naught.

Nevertheless, the ceasefire signing was carried out in Naypyitaw, on 15 October, with pomp and ceremony hailed as nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA), even though it could be hardly identified with the title it carries.

In order to justify the gathering and also to compensate for the mere 8 of the EAOs' participation, out
of government's accepted 15 but count 21 nationwide, in the signing ceremony, President Thein Sein, in his opening speech said:

" The government believes that it is more important to outline a peace process that is accepted by all than the number of signatories. With the understanding that it is essential to cement a foundation for peace process for the future of the country, the government made the commitment to finalize the NCA."

" Therefore, although some organizations are currently not ready to sign, the government decided to conclude the NCA with the vanguard group of organizations that are ready to proceed with the signing."

" However, we will continue with our efforts to bring the remaining organizations into the process. The door is open for them. Since the NCA is based on the terms that these organizations have negotiated and agreed to, the implementation of the NCA is in accordance with their intent. If requested by the remaining organizations, the government will coordinate and facilitate their participation in the various stages of the peace process."

The Karen National Union (KNU) Chairman Mutu Say Poe stressed the necessary point of wooing the non-signatory to join the government initiated NCA as:  "Additionally, I would like to especially request and urge the Tatmadaw (Burma Army) to resolve issues through negotiations rather than use of force in order to bring the organizations that are currently unable to sign the NCA back into the process. In opening the way for these organizations, de-escalation mechanisms are important, and the leaders who are signatories to the NCA will need to coordinate and find solutions."

In the same breath, the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army  (RCSS/SSA) in its statement following the NCA signing on 15 October pointed out:

" To not let the clashes occur between the ethnic armed groups who have not yet signed the NCA and Tatmadaw, RCSS/SSA urges the government to be open-minded and continue negotiations."

" As SSPP/SSA is an organization that has been involved in drafting the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement, RCSS/SSA earnestly requests the government to be open-minded, stop the clashes currently occurring between Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) and the Tatmadaw troops and begin bilateral negotiations."

Lt-General Yawd Serk, leader of the RCSS, at a public meeting in Mandalay with the Shan people, on 18 October said: " We need to wait and see two points. The first is if they have issued order (to stop shooting) to the Tatmadaw. How they will try to achieve ceasefire with other groups, other than us. Battles occurring with the SSPP/SSA would also have to be stopped. For without them, political discussions could not be started."

Other than that, regarding NCA signing, he said it will only depend on the government's guarantee whether battles will break out again or not.

He stressed: " NCA signing ceremony is to stop the war nationwide. But only the government could guarantee, whether the battles will happen or not. It depends on them. During the state-level bilateral ceasefire agreement, the ethnic armed organizations have never started the attacks."

According to NCA, all combatants ( government and EAOs) must be informed and clarified (of the ceasefire effect) within five days of signing.

" We have issued orders, as soon as the NCA was signed. But we don't see the Tatmadaw issuing orders to their troops," said Lt-General Yawd Serk.

Regarding the same pressing issue, SSPP/SSA issued a four point statement, on 18 October, stating the Tatmadaw offensives on its positions around the headquarters and occasionally shelling the headquarters itself, starting 6 October, which has been ongoing.

The statement pointed out the fact that on 28 January 2012, it has signed union-level, bilateral ceasefire agreement with the government, which latter has the duty to comply with, even though the SSPP/SSA is not yet ready to sign the NCA, according to the wish of the government.

It also stated that despite the withdrawal of the its troops from  a strategic river port at Ta Hsam Pu village in Khesi Township, according to the Tatmadaw's ultimatum, it is still poised to conduct offensives on the SSPP/SSA.

The fourth and final paragraph stressed: " Led by the SSPP/SSA Central Committee we will march towards a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement with pride and dignity. We will continue to negotiate with the UPWC on building a federal republic. On the other hand, we solemnly declare that the officers and soldiers of the SSPP/SSA are ready to go into battle to relentlessly repel the unjustified Burma Army's incursion by defending ourselves."

Meanwhile, the 8 EAOs that have signed the NCA with the government issued an eight point joint-statement on 18 October.

The statement said that following the completion of the 7 August NCA draft, the 8 EAOs signed the NCA with the government on 15 October, after which they formed the Joint Implementation Committee Meeting (JICM), leading to the formation of Joint Monitoring Committee (JMC) and Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC), together with the regime.

It also vowed to solve the individual and collective problems together.

The last paragraph 8, however, outlined the 8 EAOs' demands. They are:
  • As NCA becomes alive, union-wide ceasefire and provocative attacks should be toned down.
  • By promising to follow the NCA, solving political problem through political means, building the union with a federal system are accepted by the government and the Tatmadaw. And in order the NCA to be solidified, both signatories should work together, so that political discussions could be held successfully.
  • IDPs in border areas be given humanitarian assistance be given speedily.
  • Besides, all political prisoners, imprisoned students and sympathizers that are seeking to amend the educational system be released as soon as possible.

Echoing the same sentiment, the 88 generation group issued a statement on 17 October that the regime should not be pressuring the non-signatory EAOs militarily and politically and instead, should pushed for all-inclusive signing of the NCA.

On 15 October, similarly, some 18 Shan Community Based Organizations released a statement titled, " If Naypyitaw wants peace, it must stop its military advances into Shan ceasefire territories".

The statement said that on October 6, the Burma Army launched a large-scale offensive on territories of the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) in Mong Su and Mong Nawng townships, where heavy fighting, involving over ten Burmese battalions, took place and has caused over 1,500 villagers from these areas to flee their homes and farms.

The Shan CBOs strongly condemn this new offensive, the indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas, and the forced displacement of civilians. These attacks are part of a systematic military operation over the past few years by Naypyidaw to seize territory from the SSPP/SSA, in violation of its existing ceasefire agreement signed in January 2012.

The CBOs stressed that if the international community wants genuine peace in Burma, it is urgently needed to publicly condemn this new offensive and put pressure on Napyitaw to end its advances into ethnic territories and pull back its troops from these areas.

It also urge international donors to provide urgently needed humanitarian aid to those displaced by the recent conflict in Central Shan State, through local community based organizations.

International endorsement

The international community, including China, all welcome the signing of partial-ceasefire, dubbed as NCA, but cautioned that all inclusiveness of the EAOs in the process as a key to be able to achieve the cherished goal.

On the same day of NCA signing, the Peace Support group (PSG) released a statement saying: " We recognise the need for all parties to continue to build trust and create avenues for the non-signatory groups to join the NCA at a time appropriate for them. Respecting the decisions of all parties, we will continue to support a process that aims to include all parties concerned in the Myanmar peace process in line with the aspirations of a Union based on democratic and federal principles as expressed in the NCA"

The statement emphasized: "The Peace Support Group is composed of the countries and organisations that have accompanied the Myanmar peace process, in political and practical terms. Today, we renew our long-term commitment and express our resolve to maintain our collective support to the peace process, and implementation of the NCA and to peace in Myanmar in the years to come. Our support will continue bilaterally, in accordance with our respective expertise and mandates, as well as through the forthcoming Joint Peace Fund."

The Peace Support Group (PSG) (formerly known as the Peace Donor Support Group - PDSG) works towards ensuring effective coordination of the international community's support to peace in Myanmar. It currently includes Australia, Canada, Denmark, the European Union, Finland, Indonesia, Japan, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the United Nations, the United States of America and the World Bank.

In the same vein and on the same date, John Kirby, spokesperson of the U.S. Department of State made a press release emphasizing the U.S. endorsement of the NCA and at the same time cautioning the need of abstaining military engagement, in order not to undermine the peace process.

Part of the release writes: " We call on all NCA signatories to adhere to the spirit and letter of the agreement they have signed today. Military action undertaken by or against any signatory or non-signatory to this agreement undermines the trust-building necessary for lasting peace, stability, and security for all."

It also acknowledge the fact by emphasizing: " We recognize that some groups were not able to sign today, and we understand and respect their concerns.. We welcome their commitment to continue discussions within their communities and with the government about the necessary conditions for signing at a future date, and we urge the government to engage constructively in a dialogue with these groups to pursue a more inclusive peace."

Furthermore the release pin points: " We remain concerned by reports of continued military offensives in Kachin and Shan States and the lack of humanitarian access to many of the more than 100,000 internally displaced persons in those areas."

Two immediate pressing issues

It is not clear if the hasty signing of NCA, before the end of legislature period, would actually benefit the Thein Sein regime in its election campaign, given the incomprehensible and partial participation of the EAOs in the process.

But the two pressing issues facing the government and the EAOs alike are real challenges that need to be tackled head on if the NCA is move on. They are whether the signed ceasefire will hold and if the country will be effectively split into a ceasefire and war zones.

The likelihood that ceasefire could be derailed is quite high, given the warlike nature of the Tatmadaw, due to its rank and file indoctrination of its self-appointed, country's saviour role and the unwavering duty to uphold national unity and defend sovereignty from the rebellious, non-Bamar ethnic separatist groups. And as such, the non-Bamar ethnic groups are seen as enemies, rather than co-inhabitants in a collectively owned union.

Apart from decades long, military occupation and encroachment of the ethnic homelands under the above mentioned pretext, the recent ongoing offensives of the SSPP/SSA, with a threat to overrun its headquarters; and just on the eve of the NCA signing, the Tatmadaw had waged running battles with the RCSS/SSA in September, despite the latter's prior commitment to stand by the government, which nearly opted out of the regime's initiated signing game in Naypyitaw, indicated that ceasefire violations are more likely to be instigated by the Tatmadaw.

But if the military could turn a new leaf and adhere to the ceasefire terms, for the benefit of all the people, chances of materializing the NCA could become a reality.

Another pressing challenge is that whether the Tatmadaw will look at the country's conflict spectrum as ceasefire and war zones, which have to be tackled differently. If this is the accepted case, the battles would rage on in non-ceasefire, war zones and a semblance of peace would likely prevail in the ceasefire zones, that is if the Burma Army would actually adhere to the ceasefire agreement. On the other hand, if the regime would extend the nationwide ceasefire in a true sense and strive to include all the areas of non-signatory EAOs, the prospect of materializing the NCA will be much higher than expected.

But still there is a chance for the regime to make the NCA works, if it is willing to compromise and  loosen some of its self-imposed rigid rules. For example, in order to woo the non-signatory EAOs, it could allow and agree to their fully-fledged participation in political dialogue phase, instead of imposing just observer status; stop the whole offensive and declare unilateral ceasefire nationwide; lift the unlawful association act; and change the government initiated to co-ownership of the NCA procedure, as originally agreed between two negotiation blocs.

And thus, the failure or achievement of NCA implementation solely depends on the regime and no one else, as  Sao Yawd Serk, leader of the RCSS has rightly pointed out.

The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU) - Editor