Saturday, January 9, 2016

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Business Roundup (Jan. 9, 2016)

Posted: 08 Jan 2016 07:32 PM PST

Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Insurance says only about 5 percent of drivers in Burma have car insurance. (Photo: Reuters)

Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Insurance says only about 5 percent of drivers in Burma have car insurance. (Photo: Reuters)

Thai Trade Delegation Set to Visit Burma Amid Tensions

Amid widespread anger over the sentencing of two Burmese migrant workers to death in Thailand last month, the Thai commerce minister is set to lead a delegation to Naypyidaw that hopes to boost trade between the neighboring countries, according to Thai media reports.

Protests erupted across Burma after Zaw Lin and Wai Phyo were convicted of the murders of two British backpackers on the Thai island of Koh Tao, forcing Thailand's embassy in Rangoon to close its consular section. Burmese officials have insisted that border trade has been unaffected by the protests, but army chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing has joined calls for a review of the evidence in the case, which is widely disbelieved in Burma.

The Buddhist monk-led nationalist movement known as Ma Ba Tha has also called for a boycott of Thai goods in Burma.

Media in Thailand reported this week that a high-level Thai government delegation would be visiting the Burmese capital next week with the aim of ramping up bilateral trade.

English-language newspapers the Bangkok Post and The Nation both reported comments by Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn saying that the Thai military government wants to raise bilateral trade to about $10 to $12 billion in the next two years. Trade was worth $8.15 billion in 2014, according to Thai government figures cited by The Nation.

Apiradi will lead the Thai delegation in a meeting of the two countries' Joint Trade Commission in Naypyidaw on Jan. 14-15, The Nation reported. The incumbent and likely outgoing Burmese commerce minister, Win Myint, is expected to lead Burma's delegation

"Besides setting trade targets, the ministers will also seek further cooperation in banking and financing in a bid to use local exchange rates for trading between the two countries," The Nation reported.

"They will also exchange information on trade rules and regulations, increase cooperation at cross-border checkpoints and discuss how to upgrade the checkpoints so that Thailand and Myanmar can achieve increased trade growth," Apiradi said.

Thailand's government is also set to propose the formation of a new Thai-Burmese trade body to represent the private sector, according to the reports.

"They will also discuss speeding up development of the Dawei deep-sea port and industrial economic zone along with other economic zone projects," the Bangkok Post reported.

As well as Thai companies leading the push to develop an economic hub in Dawei, in southern Burma, Thai conglomerate CP Group was also last week announced as a member of the winning, mostly Chinese, consortium set to build a port and industrial park in coastal Arakan State.

Discovery Hailed as Reassurance for Oil and Gas Investors

The discovery of natural gas in a deepwater offshore exploration block confirms that energy resources off the country's coast are "worth chasing," according to an analyst cited by Bloomberg.

A joint venture between Australia's Woodside Petroleum and Burmese-run firm MPRL—which is registered in the British Virgin Islands—announced this week that it had found a gas column below the seabed in an exploration block off the Arakan State coast known as A-6. French firm Total E&P Myanmar also holds a stake as a non-operator in the project.

"Further analysis will be undertaken to understand the full potential of the play, but this de-risks a number of leads which will now be matured," Woodside CEO Peter Coleman was quoted saying in a statement. "This discovery is an encouraging outcome for future exploration and appraisal activity in the area."

Block A-6 was among 20 offshore areas awarded to international firms in a tender concluded in March 2014. Companies have now begun exploration after protracted contract agreement processes.

In the meantime, however, the price of energy has been driven down by a global oversupply, potentially denting Burma's hopes for a quick injection of cash into state coffers as exploration efforts lead to production.

The find reported by Woodside and MPRL is the first from the exploration projects underway offshore, which also involve majors Shell and Statoil.

In its report on the news, Bloomberg cited Adrian Prendergast, an analyst at Morgans Financial Ltd. in Melbourne, Australia, saying the find would be a boost to investors.

"For a lot of the global players that rushed into the space, this confirms it is prospective and worth chasing," he was quoted saying. "But there's still a long a way to go."

However, Prendergast reportedly cautioned over Burma's still-uncertain political situation, saying: "Given the sovereign risk, you'd need a lot more than that to get comfortable."

Hong Kong Carrier Delays New Rangoon, Mandalay Flights

A Hong Kong-based low-cost airline has been forced to delay its inaugural flight between Burmese cities and the Chinese Special Administrative Region due to "regulatory approval issues," according to the website routesonline.com.

HK Express, which already operates flights between Hong Kong and a number of Southeast Asian tourist destinations, said in a November press release that it would begin flying regularly to both Rangoon and Mandalay's airports beginning from mid-February.

The airline had already begun offering highly discounted rates for flights on the routes, touting the flights as an opportunity for "travelers looking for an off-the-beaten path adventure."

But according to a post on routesonline.com, "Due to regulatory approval issues, Hong Kong Express is delaying planned service launch to Myanmar by over 6 months.

"The airline previously planned to begin 4-weekly Yangon service from [Feb. 17] and two-weekly to Mandalay" beginning Feb. 21.

The routes' launch dates have been revised to early September, the post said.

Japanese Firm Offers Car Insurance in Burma: Report

One of Japan's largest insurers has begun offering car insurance in Burma, where the vast majority of drivers are uninsured, according to a report from Nikkei Asian Review.

The report, published Wednesday, said that Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Insurance had recently entered the Burmese market, operating out of the Thilawa Special Economic Zone close to Rangoon.

"[Sompo Japan Nipponkoa] will mainly market vehicle insurance, as well as bodily injury and property damage liability coverage, to customers including businesses operating in the zone," the report said. "With just 5 percent or so of drivers in Myanmar carrying insurance, the market is expected to enjoy significant growth."

According to the insurer's website, it was licensed in Burma in May last year, after the government began opening up the insurance market, which was long monopolized by a state-run firm.

The post The Irrawaddy Business Roundup (Jan. 9, 2016) appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Dateline Irrawaddy: ‘Peace Can’t Be Built by Ethnic Armed Groups and the NLD Alone’

Posted: 08 Jan 2016 07:23 PM PST

Ma Kyaw Hsu Mon, Ko Htet Naing Zaw, Ko Lawi Weng and Ko Thalun Zaung Htet, members of The Irrawaddy's news crew, will join me for the discussion. (photo)

Ma Kyaw Hsu Mon, Ko Htet Naing Zaw, Ko Lawi Weng and Ko Thalun Zaung Htet, members of The Irrawaddy's news crew join this week's edition of Dateline Irrawaddy. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

Kyaw Zwa Moe: Happy New Year, and welcome to Dateline Irrawaddy. This week, we'll discuss what Burma's political and economic landscape, particularly in regards to the country's internal peace process, might look like in 2016. We'll also talk about whether the muddling of politics and religion, which has tarnished Burma's image over the past five years, will continue into the new year. Ma Kyaw Hsu Mon, Ko Htet Naing Zaw, Ko Lawi Weng and Ko Thalun Zaung Htet, members of The Irrawaddy's news crew, will join me for the discussion. I'm Irrawaddy English editor Kyaw Zwa Moe.

Ko Thalun Zaung Htet, people are anticipating the swearing-in of a new government this year. Politically, there will be a lot of interesting things to see. However, questions remain. For one, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is constitutionally barred from the presidency, and people are wondering if she will somehow be able to assume Burma's highest office. What is your assessment?

Thalun Zaung Htet: The media have widely discussed if Daw Aung San Suu Kyi can become president, and who will be if she can't. But no one in the National League for Democracy or in the Parliament has been tipped as to an answer to this question. NLD sources say that they're hopeful that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will become president, and there's been communication between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and President U Thein Sein and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. At present, people have high hopes that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will become president.

KZM: Though the constitution bars Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from being president, she may yet take the position, depending, in particular, on how her talks with military chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing play out. But whether she becomes president or not, she's bound to take the mantle in the country's affairs. A lot of challenges await the next government.

TZH: Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, according to her speeches, is not forming a purely NLD government, but rather an inclusive, coalition-style one.

KZM: That's what she's said. But I don't think she can appoint dozens of former government members to her cabinet. She will only be able to appoint a few, just a small percentage, to her cabinet because the people have given her the mandate to form the next government.

TZH: This is something to think about. If she is too keen to form a coalition government, the people who voted for her will become frustrated. Her government indeed has a lot of challenges to face in 2016. Though the leadership will change, the real question is if the government's administrative mechanisms will operate in the way that people expect.

KZM: People are concerned about these challenges, about how many political landmines U Thein Sein's government will leave behind. These will be major hurdles for her.

Ma Kyaw Hsu Mon, the economy is the second most important issue in our country. For ages Burmese people have been in poverty. How will the economic landscape look in 2016?

Kyaw Hsu Mon: The new government must confront both the good and bad legacy of the former government. For instance, it will have to handle unfinished special economic zones. Detailed data on these projects will have to be given by the former government so that the new one will know how best to grapple with any challenges. Cronyism was very blatant under the former government. Ending this will be a huge challenge for the new government.

KZM: In its party manifesto, the NLD clearly said that it will establish a corruption-free government. But corruption is entrenched even in the lowest levels of government. How problematic will this be for the incoming government, given that the military owns cronies as well as businesses?

KHM: Yes, there are businesses owned by the military. Corruption has been entrenched in our society for ages, meaning that it will be a particularly tough one for the new government to break. The outgoing government created a committee to fight bribery, but it didn't have much success. If corruption can't be brought under control, it will only make it more difficult to tackle bigger problems.

KZM: Burma is a Southeast Asian country with great potential. But because it doesn't have clear economic policies and a stable economic environment, foreign investments haven't really come into the country. How fast do you think the new government will be able to address this?

KSM: This is the question that every businessman has been asking, because they want advantageous trading policies and they're hopeful that they'll see this under the new government. The government must create a favorable environment for businessmen, and businessmen, for their part, must support the government's initiatives, such as the Asean Free Trade Area (AFTA) and the Asean Economic Community (AEC), the latter of which has just come into operation. The new government will need to adopt good policies to handle such a huge task.

KZM: Ko Lawi Weng, over the past five years, U Thein Sein's government has tried to bring about internal peace and an end to fighting, but there has only been little progress, and a ceasefire has not been properly enforced. Do you see greater prospects for this in the future, or will things be more of the same? What will be the deciding factors?

Lawi Weng: I've talked to ethnic leaders of the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC). They've formed a committee to hold dialogue with an NLD-led government. They also said that they're on the same side as the NLD regarding their views on federalism and other ethnic issues. They hope that they'll get along with the NLD, and they've said that they're ready and eager to meet with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, should they be invited to do so.

KZM: It's important to note here that peace can't be built by ethnic armed groups and the NLD alone. When it comes to peace, the military will arguably play the most important role.

LW: Indeed, the military will play a crucial role. And the NLD is concerned that its image may be marred if the army were to launch attacks at lower levels while the NLD is holding talks with UNFC. If the army does nothing, and doesn't launch any attacks during talks, then talks between the NLD and UNFC might be able to succeed.

KZM: Speaking of the ceasefire process and ethnic issues waiting for the new government, talks between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and military chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing will likely play an important role as well. How smooth these talks are will be a deciding factor. What do you think should be the NLD's first move regarding the peace process and ceasefire after it comes to power on March 31, 2016?

LW: The media are talking about the Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) and the possibility of a reshuffling there. However, the MPC takes the same line as the [current] government, and it's not a neutral institution. Ethnic groups therefore have little trust in the MPC, and honestly, they don't like it much. What should the NLD do when it assumes power? The MPC shouldn't be abolished, but I do think that the MPC should be reformed to include both current impartial members and new members who have considerable knowledge of ethnic issues, especially leaders of ethnic armed groups, and will cooperate with the new government in the peace process.

KZM: Finally, and most importantly, it can be said that misplaced nationalism has surged after U Thein Sein's government came to power in 2011. And as a result, the country has seen lots of religious conflict that has led to heavy casualties and forced many people from their homes. Similarly, some political parties have attempted to win votes prior to the November election by abusing religion. If this continues in 2016, it will only further tarnish Burma's image.

Htet Naing Zaw: Looking back at 2015, there were some monks, such as U Wirathu and U Par Mauk Ka, who abused religion to wield political influence. But there were also virtuous, noble monks, such as U Thu Mingala and Dr. Nanda Marlar Bhivums. Indeed, these monks who preached objectively can be juxtaposed against U Wirathu, who labeled Yanghee Lee, the UN's special rapporteur to Burma, a 'whore,' and against U Par Mauk Kha, who said regarding the Koh Tao murder verdict that he would disrobe and fight if need be. Even still, no monk committee or government has taken actions against them. It's probable that the government didn't do anything because it wanted to use U Wirathu and Ma Ba Tha to win votes.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD government must make establishing rule of law a priority in 2016, and they must approach Muslim and Rakhine religious leaders equally. If rule of law and co-existence can be obtained, many problems could, at least in part, be solved.

KZM: What other policies do you think the NLD should adopt? What do scholars think?

HNZ: If mutual trust and respect can be built gradually between two sides [despite religious and other differences], and if rule of law can be established, the problem of religious conflict could finally be resolved. It's important to note, however, that those who don't like the NLD and pessimists may try to exploit this problem to incite racial and religious instability.

KZM: How moderate leaders are will also play a key role. Di Dote U Ba Cho, who was assassinated along with General Aung San [in 1947], asked him to designate Buddhism as the State's religion. And General Aung San told him not to say that again, for the sake of peace in Burma, a multi-ethnic and multi-faith country. If we can find such a leader once again, nationalists will find that they have no place in this country.

Though 2016 will hold many challenges for Burma and its people, we can also hope that it will be a time of exciting economic and political progress for the country.

The post Dateline Irrawaddy: 'Peace Can't Be Built by Ethnic Armed Groups and the NLD Alone' appeared first on The Irrawaddy.
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