Thursday, June 20, 2013

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine

In US, Shwe Mann Urged to Focus on Peace

Posted: 20 Jun 2013 06:00 AM PDT

Lower House Speaker Shwe Mann speaks during a meeting OF Parliament in Naypyidaw. (Photo: Irrawaddy)

Lower House Speaker Shwe Mann speaks during a meeting OF Parliament in Naypyidaw. (Photo: Irrawaddy)

Shwe Mann, a leading lawmaker with presidential ambitions, has been urged by the Burmese community in the United States to focus on legislation that would help sustain Burma's current peace process.

The speaker of Burma's lower house of Parliament, Shwe Mann, who represents the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), was traveling to the United States last week to talk with US lawmakers in Washington. He also met with members of the Burmese community during a visit to California last weekend.

"We first raised the issues of ending wars in ethnic areas and [establishing] a nationwide ceasefire for internal peace," said Ko Ko Lay, a Burmese activist in the San Francisco Bay Area who organized the event last Sunday.

He said participants at the event also urged all-inclusiveness for ethnic minority groups in Burma's next election, which is scheduled to be held in 2015.

Apart from necessary changes to legislation, Ko Ko Lay said the Burmese community called on Shwe Mann to pay particular attention to creating a new law on general amnesty and to push for a constitutional amendment.

Shwe Mann told the group that Burma was one of the world's least developed countries and could only become prosperous through democracy.

"With this belief, the previous government made a decision to work on the democratization process," he said in a speech.

Asked if he wanted to be Burma's next president, Shwe Mann said he was fully ready to take the position. He made a similar remark in an earlier interview with the Voice of America news agency.

Recently, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi also announced her desire to be the country's next head of state during the World Economic Forum in Naypyidaw. According to the current Constitution, however, she is not eligible to take the post because her late husband was British and her children hold foreign citizenship.

Shwe Mann, a former general who has built a reputation as a reformist and is known to communicate closely with Suu Kyi in Parliament, has said lawmakers were working to amend the Constitution.

"We know there are concerns about constitutional restrictions regarding Suu Kyi's eligibility to become the president," he told an audience of American politicians at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington. "We have already formed a commission to analyze the Constitution and make necessary amendments."

During his visit to the United States, Shwe Mann also met with UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon at UN headquarters in New York. During that meeting last Saturday, Ban Ki-moon reportedly praised the progress of recent reforms but urged Burma's government to tackle communal violence in the country.

Silver Jubilee Planned to Mark ’88 Uprising

Posted: 20 Jun 2013 05:58 AM PDT

88 Generation leaders take to the stage to announce the winner of the guitar auction during a fund-raising concert in Rangoon last year. (Photo: Ant Bwe Kyaw)

88 Generation leaders take to the stage to announce the winner of the guitar auction during a fund-raising concert in Rangoon last year. (Photo: Ant Bwe Kyaw)

RANGOON — Burma's political activists are making plans to celebrate the Silver Jubilee of the historic popular uprising that nearly toppled the country's dictatorship 25 years ago.

Widely known as the "88 Uprising," the nationwide pro-democracy movement that broke out on Aug. 8, 1988, drew hundreds of thousands of Burmese from all walks of life to join a protest in the former capital Rangoon. The movement sought an end to dictator Ne Win's oppressive 26-year single-party rule, but the government would ultimately crush the protests with a heavy hand, killing at least 3,000 peaceful demonstrators.

Twenty-five years later, the day still stands as an important milestone in modern Burmese history—a day that marked the emergence of a full-fledged democracy movement that managed to oust Ne Win from power, and laid the groundwork for the reforms toward more openness and democracy that the country is seeing today.

In early August this year, more than 1,000 people from all over Burma will gather in Rangoon to celebrate the event, and also to discuss peace and national reconciliation, said Ant Bwal Kyaw, the information officer for the event.

"The theme of the celebration is peace and reconciliation, and around 1,500 people will be invited," he said, adding that the invitees will be members of political parties, ethnic armed groups, diplomats, exiled activists and international activist groups that have long supported Burma's democracy movement.

He said the event is scheduled to be held from Aug. 6 to 8 and is being jointly organized by political and student activist groups that have long been involved in the Southeast Asian country's democracy movement. There will also be an exhibition booth showcasing pictures, documents and other historical memorabilia related to the uprising.

The venue for the ceremony is still unclear, Ant Bwal Kyaw added. Organizers want to hold it at Rangoon University's convocation hall, the original breeding ground for student activists involved in the uprising.

"If we don't have permission to use the hall, we will change the venue to the Myanmar Convention Center," he said.

Toe Kyaw Hlaing, the event's international relations officer, declined to reveal the guest list, saying it was still being compiled, but hinted that nearly 300 people from overseas would be invited.

"The list will also include international scholars and observers of Burma," he said.

According to the invitation committee for the event, the guest list will be drafted by the end of this month.

"The 88 movement demanded the changes that we are starting to see now," said Ant Bwal Kyaw, who is also a member of the 88 Generation Peace and Open Society (formerly known as the 88 Generation Students group), an activist group made up of former students who were actively involved in the uprising.

For the last 24 years, making offerings to monks or falling silent in prayer to honor those killed in the historic uprising of 1988 has been considered taboo in Burma.

Toe Kyaw Hlaing, one of the students who topic took part in the 1988 protests, said it was difficult to hold ceremonies in the past because the had remained so politically sensitive for the government.

"If you applied for government permission, they never said 'no,' but they never issued permission on time," he explained. "We were also summoned for questioning. Everyone who tried to celebrate felt very jittery."

But since last year, the government has softened its stance, even giving cash donations to help fund an '88 commemoration ceremony planned in Mandalay, Burma's second largest city.

"Now we have more openness so that we want this Silver Jubilee of the 88 Uprising to be more politically meaningful by discussing peace and national reconciliation," he added.

Sagaing Authorities Seek Arrest of 3 Activists That Criticized Them

Posted: 20 Jun 2013 05:56 AM PDT

From left to right, wanted rights activist Wai Lu, Moe Thway and Wai Hmuu Thwin, and Bo Bo of Generation Wave and Bo Kyi of AAPP. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

From left to right, wanted rights activist Wai Lu, Moe Thway and Wai Hmuu Thwin, and Bo Bo of Generation Wave and Bo Kyi of AAPP. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Three Rangoon-based human rights activists said on Thursday that Sagaing Division authorities want to arrest them because they spoke out against the government's treatment of farmers who oppose the Letpadaung copper mine in northwestern Burma.

Wai Lu and Wai Hmuu Twin of the Yangon People Service Network and Generation Wave activist Moe Thway said Sagaing Division authorities had accused them on June 13 of making statements with the intention of alarming the public or inducing someone to commit an offence against the government.

The charge under Penal Code Article 505 (b) was lodged at Monywa Township Court and carries a maximum sentence of two years' imprisonment.

"If they come for us we are not going to run," Wai Lu told reporters during a press conference held at the 88 Generation Students office in Rangoon on Thursday. "I was just told this morning that police were on the way to arrest us," he added.

The trio said they were being prosecuted for remarks they made during an interview with local media in Monywa Township in early May. "We heard that the police were going to arrest us because of what we said to the media, which had disrespected the authorities," Moe Thway said.

Bo Kyi, joint secretary of the Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners also attended the press conference and he condemned authorities for prosecuting the trio. He added that despite the government's promises of reform "authorities continue to arrest more political activists."

An officer at No. 1 Monwa Township Police Station told The Irrawaddy that the decision to prosecute the activists was made by local commanders.

"I presented the [interview] recording to my boss and he said that there were some words that disrespect the state. So, I was instructed to issue an arrest warrant for these activists," said the officer, who declined to be named as he was unauthorized to speak to the media.

During the interview, the activists had criticized local authorities for issuing an order under Article 144 of the Criminal Procedure Code to prohibit villagers from accessing or using their farmlands.

On Thursday, the trio stood by their criticism. "No one should be arrested under Article 144 anymore because our country is in a stage of transition to democracy. Under the military regime people were always arrested under this charge," said Wai Lu.

The Asian Human Rights Commission said in a paper in November that the use of the measure in Monwa is unlawful as only a judge can issue such an order.

Hundreds of farmers from 26 villages in the Monwa area have lost about 3,000 hectares (7,800 acres) of land to the huge copper mine and for the past year or so they have been protesting against the project.

A parliamentary commission, chaired by opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, released a report in March urging the affected farmers to accept a compensation offer from the mining companies — Chinese state-owned company Wanbao and the military-owned Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Ltd.

The local farmers however, have rejected the report and their continuing protests have led to confrontations with authorities.

On April 25, they began plowing their fields in protest, but local authorities quickly appeared on the scene to stop the farmers. Five farmers and a local activist were arrested and charged under Article 144, while others were reportedly beaten and shot at.

It was not the first time that local authorities have cracked down on protests against the mine. On Nov. 29, police carried out a sudden raid on a large group of farmers and Buddhist monks who were holding a sit-down protest outside the mining company's office.

Police shot smoke-generating incendiary devices into the camp, causing severe burns among about 100 monks and villagers. No officials have so far been held accountable for the incident.

KNPP, Govt Peace Talks Achieve Monitoring Committee Agreement

Posted: 20 Jun 2013 05:53 AM PDT

Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) representatives sign an agreement with the government peace delegation on Thursday in Loikaw, Karenni State. (Photo: Nyo Ohn Myint / Facebook)

Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) representatives sign an agreement with the government peace delegation on Thursday in Loikaw, Karenni State. (Photo: Nyo Ohn Myint / Facebook)

Ethnic Karenni rebels and the Burmese government's delegation concluded union-level peace talks on Thursday in Loikaw, where they agreed to found a 10-member "joint monitoring committee" to watch over the ongoing peace process, among other accords.

Both the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) and the government delegation expressed optimism concerning the peace talks, which resulted in a specific plan that the two sides had failed achieve in previous negotiations.

"We have implemented the forming of the monitoring committee. It is a good thing," said Hla Maung Shwe, a leading member of the government-affiliated Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) and an attendee of the two-day talks. "In the past we didn't make it, but agreed only in principle."

According to a joint statement released on Thursday after the meeting, the monitoring committee will be made up of two representatives from both the government and the KNPP, as well as six respected civilian community leaders. Its job will be to coordinate with civil society organizations, NGOs and individuals to negotiate and implement their respective missions on the ground in Karenni State.

The delegations from both parties agreed to cooperate on achieving a nationwide ceasefire accord and establishing an inclusive political dialogue involving all of Burma's ethnic armed groups. They also agreed to continue discussions over military affairs in future meetings.

The two parties agreed to make sure that no more fighting—like the clashes that broke out in March last year between the government and KNPP troops—takes place again, in accordance with the ceasefire agreement between the two parties.

According to the statement, the KNPP called on the Burmese government to allow public assessment, transparency and accountability if Naypyidaw wants to undertake major business projects in Karenni State. They also agreed that the clearance of land mines would have to be carried out before internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the region can be resettled. The two parties will also work together on implementing an IDP resettlement pilot project.

KNPP leaders and the government peace delegation also plan to attend a ceremony in honor of Karenni National Day, which will be held in Loikaw, the state capital, on Friday.

Minister Aung Min of the President's Office, Energy Minister Than Htay and Karenni State's Chief Minister Khin Maung Oo, as well as high-ranking Burmese military officials, were also present at the meeting.

Maj-Gen Aung Than Htut, who is chief of the Bureau of Special Operations-2, said in the meeting: "As we are the armed forces of the unio, to protect the union, I deeply want to speak out that we will protect any national ethnicities who live in any region in the union.

"I never thought that Kayah [Karenni] State would be peaceful. It is like a dream as it [peace] now exists," he added.

The KNPP and the government peace team also agreed to form a technical team in order to implement the agreements reached during this week's talks.

Aung Min addressed some of the broader goals being pursued by many of Burma's ethnic armed rebels.

"Ethnic groups call for equal rights, autonomy and self-determination. In some way, it is sort of a federal system. And the president is preparing to give a speech regarding the federal issue soon."

"We want the future plan of the president to be achieved," said Khun Oo Reh, deputy chairman of the KNPP. "In accordance with the president's plan, we will cooperate in a positive way to negotiate and find a solution to the problem."

In a private meeting on Wednesday, the government officials and KNPP leaders "talked about military affairs and humanitarian assistance to the Karenni internally displaced persons [IDPs]," Hla Maung Shwe of the MPC said.

Some independent observers including an official from the US Embassy, Erin Webster-Main, 10 religious leaders and several members of Parliament were also presented at the peace talks in Loikaw.

The meeting between the government peace delegation and the KNPP leaders is the third round of official peace talks. The two sides held their first official talks in March 2012, when they signed a ceasefire agreement. They met again in June 2012.

Naypyidaw Expected to Hold Major Conference With Ethnic Groups

Posted: 20 Jun 2013 05:48 AM PDT

Gen Gun Maw, deputy chief of the Kachin Independence Army, on the way to a meeting room in May ahead of peace talks with the government. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

Gen Gun Maw, deputy chief of the Kachin Independence Army, on the way to a meeting room in May ahead of peace talks with the government. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON—Burma's government has told a visiting delegation from the European Union that it will hold a major conference with ethnic minority groups who are fighting for greater political autonomy.

The government will hold the conference next month, said a senior EU official from the delegation, which held two days of meetings with Burmese officials in Naypyidaw this week to discuss EU-Burma trade and investment, as well as the implementation of a large EU aid program in coming years.

"What is happening with the peace process is very encouraging, I must say. I think the government has succeeded in having ceasefires," David O'Sullivan, chief operating officer of the European External Action Service, which serves as an EU diplomacy corps, told reporters on Wednesday. "Hopefully now, with the completing of the full set of ceasefires, as I understand it, it's intended to hold a major conference in July, which would be the signing of a nationwide ceasefire, accompanied by the beginnings of political dialogue."

He said the conference was expected to engage in "the beginnings of a debate about how Myanmar could perhaps move toward a slightly more decentralized [system]."

"The word 'federal' is perhaps a loaded word, depending on where you come from, but allowing a greater degree of autonomy to some of the ethnic regions as part of an overall political settlement, this seems to us—we know how difficult it is—but it seems to be moving generally in the right direction," he said.

After Burma's independence from Britain, many of the country's ethnic minority states fought decades-long wars against the government's army in pursuit of greater political autonomy. Ethnic armed groups also fought for better human rights for ethnic minority people, who were long oppressed by the military regime and continue to lack equal representation under Burma's nominally civilian government, which took power in 2011.

President Thein Sein's government has signed ceasefire deals with most major ethnic armed groups, but clashes have continued in many areas.

In north Burma's Kachin State, fighting escalated in January this year after a 17-year ceasefire broke down in June 2011. Clashes died down in February with the start of peace talks, which last month led to the signing of a preliminary peace agreement between both sides, although a formal ceasefire has not yet been achieved.

Hla Maung Shwe, a peace negotiator from the Myanmar Peace Center in Rangoon, said negotiations with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) were the key to achieving a nationwide ceasefire agreement in Naypyidaw.

"If the government could sign a ceasefire with the KIA, President Thein Sein will hold a nationwide ceasefire agreement in Naypyidaw first," he told The Irrawaddy on Thursday. "Then it [the government] will have a framework for political dialogue."

Ten of 11 major ethnic armed groups have signed ceasefire agreements with the government. In addition to the KIA, smaller armed groups such as ethnic Naga and ethnic Paluang armed groups, as well as the All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF), are also still fighting with the government.

Leaders from the KIA and the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the KIA's political wing, say they will only sign a ceasefire agreement if Burma's government holds a political dialogue open to all ethnic people.

"We want all people to have the ability to participate in this event," said the KIA's deputy chief, Gen Sumlut Gun Maw. "But there are Naga and other armed groups which haven't yet agreed to a ceasefire. All of them should participate in this event. It should not only be the 11 ethnic armed groups."

Sam Khun, a spokesman for the United Wa State Army (UWSA) in east Burma's Shan State, said he did not believe a nationwide ceasefire would be possible without political dialogue.

But Maj Sai Hla, a spokesman for the Shan State Army-North (SSA-N), said the government did not yet have plans to discuss a federal system in Naypyidaw.

"As I understand it, they are not saying this will be a political dialogue. It's only to have a nationwide ceasefire agreement," he said.

USDP Will ‘Probably’ Support PR System: Party Leader

Posted: 20 Jun 2013 02:30 AM PDT

A Burmese election official displays a ballot paper during the parliamentary by-elections on April 1, 2012. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

A Burmese election official displays a ballot paper during the parliamentary by-elections on April 1, 2012. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON—Burma's ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) will likely support the adoption of a proportional representation (PR) system in the 2015 election, a party leader says.

Aung Thaung, a USDP lawmaker with close ties to President Thein Sein, told The Irrawaddy that his party, which holds the majority of seats in Parliament, would "probably" back the PR system to prevent the predominance of another big party.

"Big parties will become democratic dictators," said the lawmaker, one of the country's wealthiest businessmen and a former industry minister under the previous military regime. "They can monopolize everything. That is why we want a PR system. I presume the USDP will probably support it."

The USDP's main competition in the next election, the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) party, which is led by Aung San Suu Kyi, has publicly opposed the PR system, which would likely hurt its success at the polls.

"The main point is to terminate the possibility of emerging predominance of certain big parties," Aung Thaung said. "The disadvantage of FPTP is that it favors the big parties and the disappearance of small parties. The disappearance of small parties means they don't have a chance to take part in politics anymore."

His statement comes after Burma's Union Election Commission last week announced that it urged Parliament to discuss the possibility of replacing the current first-past-the-post (FPTP) system with the PR system, which allows parties to win seats in the legislature based on the percentage of votes they earn nationwide.

Aung Thaung rejected criticism that the public is not yet ready for the PR system.

"The PR system is new to the public, so we have to explain it to them," he said. "There are also three different types of PR systems. Which type will we use? We need to try to make the public vote for it. It's said that the PR system has been used in some democracies since 1800."

He said the gains from a PR system would outweigh the potential shortcomings, such as the possibility of a factionalized Parliament.

"The PR system has weaknesses," he said. "Problems may arise, like frequent arguments in Parliament, the breakdown of governance, and frequent elections. No party can dominate with different parties existing in Parliament, which leads to the formation of alliances between parties in order to form a government."

Suu Kyi's NLD supports the current FPTP system, whereby an election is won by the candidate with the most votes. An FPTP system would likely lead to a contest between the NLD and the USDP for the 75 percent of Parliament seats available in the next election.

NLD lawmaker Zaw Myint Maung, said the PR system was unacceptable and the very act of promoting it was an attempt to attack the NLD politically.

"The main intention is to weaken the strong parties, including the NLD," he said. "The NLD had a landslide victory in 1990, and again in the by-election. Bluntly speaking, it [the PR system] is a punch to the NLD."

He said Burma's democracy was still too new to handle the PR system, which is more complicated to implement than the FPTP system and less likely to offer fast, decisive voting outcomes.

"We cannot agree to a PR system, according to the present situation," he said. "We are going to think about it as the country matures democratically."

Lawmakers say the Union Election Commission's proposal to adopt the PR system will likely be discussed, concluded and confirmed after the next Parliament session on Tuesday.

The electoral commission submitted the proposal to Parliament last month at the recommendation of a 10-member democratic alliance, including the Chin National Party, the Democratic Party (Burma), the Democracy and Peace Party, the Union Democracy Party, the Phalon-Sawaw Democratic Party, the All Mon Regions Democracy Party, the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party, the National Democratic Front, and the Unity and Peace Party.

A PR system could allow some of Burma's 135 officially recognized ethnic minorities to achieve more representation, but not all ethnic minority parties support it.

At a meeting of 15 ethnic minority parties earlier this month in east Burma's Shan State, some party leaders said they could not agree to a PR system, which they said could lead to a breakdown in national government.

"I don't agree to it at all," said Khun Tun Oo, a leader of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy. "It will be difficult for minorities. We still need to learn a lot. How will the farmers and country folk, who make up 70 percent of the country's population, understand the PR system?"

Asia’s Last Economic Frontier Needs Hundreds of Billions of Dollars

Posted: 20 Jun 2013 01:16 AM PDT

Burmese President Thein Sein inspects a thermal power plant in Japan during a visit that focused largely on attracting Japanese investment in Burma's economy. (Photo: Reuters)

Burmese President Thein Sein inspects a thermal power plant in Japan during a visit that focused largely on attracting Japanese investment in Burma’s economy. (Photo: Reuters)

The winners of next week's bidding process to build Burma's wireless telecommunications network will need very deep pockets, according to the latest Monopoly board-game figures for developing the country.

"$50 billion is needed in telecommunications infrastructure if Myanmar [Burma] is to make full use of digital technology to leapfrog stages of development," say economists Martin N. Baily and Richard Dobbs in a critique of the level and focus of investment in the country.

Perhaps that kind of outlay is not what the dozen or so international telecommunications companies bidding for two network licenses have in mind, but it's what Baily and Dobbs believe will be necessary to help push Burma firmly into the 21st century by discarding some 20th-century models.

"For example, by using mobile banking or e-commerce to avoid the cost of building physical banks and shops and to extend health and education services to even the remotest villages," Baily and Dobbs outlined in a report for Project Syndicate, a website which publishes "original, engaging, and thought-provoking commentaries by esteemed leaders and thinkers."

Baily is a former chairman of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers and an economic policy development commentator at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Dobbs is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute.

US $50 billion is only a small portion of the hundreds of billions of dollars the authors reckon is needed to truly make Burma the last economic frontier of growth which international media have been talking up for the past year.

Baily and Dobbs calculate that around $300 billion is needed just to raise Burma's housing, electricity, transport and energy infrastructure to 21st-century standards. Half of this huge sum would need to be spent in the largest cities and towns, which they tip to expand considerably if the country moves away from its present agrarian base.

"Today, only an estimated 13 percent of Myanmar's population lives in large cities, but that could rise to 25 percent by 2030—an addition of 10 million people," say Baily and Dobbs.

Their figures suggest an annual investment of at least $20 billion a year through to 2030. But in Burma's last financial year, a total of $1.4 billion was actually invested, according to government figures.

This modest investment to date, the reality behind all the gung-ho headlines of boom, boom, boom, was underlined as a problem for Burma just recently by opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

"Certainly it is going to be an uphill task to attract the sort of investment to meet these [Baily and Dobbs] projections. Particularly so since the vast funds that, up until recently, have been sloshing around the world looking for yield are fast drying up," long-time Burma economy watcher Sean Turnell told The Irrawaddy on June 17.

Much of the inward investment in property construction is going into hotels to cater for the country's burgeoning tourism. Numerous foreign companies have visited Rangoon and Naypyidaw and made vague offers to build new electricity-generating infrastructure, but very little actual power plant construction is under way or confirmed as copper-bottomed projects.

Aside from the mobile telephone network franchises scramble, with winners scheduled to be announced June 27, one of the biggest looming investments is expected to be in the energy sector, with 30 offshore blocks up for development.

The closing date for offshore blocks bids was June 14 and the Ministry of Energy has said it will announce winners by the end of this month.

Nineteen of the blocks are in deep seas of the Bay of Bengal and only the major international oil companies have the necessary technology, skills and deep pockets to carry out expensive undersea exploratory drilling.

No firms have announced their bids but speculation in the foreign oil industry press has named Chevron, BP, Shell, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Petronas of Malaysia, PTTEP of Thailand and Norway's Statoil as possible contenders.

The short-listed bidders for phone network licenses already announced by the government include China Mobile Limited; Vodafone Group; Singapore Telecommunications; Bharti Airtel of India; KDDI Corporation of Japan; Sumitomo Corporation, also of Japan; Telenor of Norway; and Vietnam's Viettel Group.

Turnell, an economics professor at Macquarie University in Australia and co-editor of the Burma Economic Watch, said a lack of investment in basic infrastructure in Burma remained a "very significant problem". But he cited the example of the British-Dutch conglomerate Unilever's decision to develop a second factory in the country as "something quite positive".

"The Unilever story [is] still only one example of what needs to take place, but a step in the desired direction at least. This sort of investment employs people, is of the sort that must grapple with local laws, institutions and conditions broadly, and is the sort that puts down roots," Turnell told The Irrawaddy.

Unilever, a processed packaged foods-to-personal hygiene and household cleaning products giant, is due to open its first factory in Rangoon by the end of June, providing jobs for 150 people, and said earlier this month it would establish a second plant by the end of this year.

"Myanmar faces monumental development challenges that embrace virtually every aspect of the economy," said Baily and Dobbs. "But that implies the broadest possible range of opportunities for companies and investors as well. They should proceed with caution, but with the expectation of tapping into a potentially lucrative new market."

Burma’s Constitution Likely to Dash Suu Kyi’s Presidential Hopes

Posted: 19 Jun 2013 11:06 PM PDT

A supporter holds up a portrait of opposition leader Aung Sun Suu Kyi on June 19, 2013, at a celebration of her 68th birthday outside the National League for Democracy headquarters in Rangoon. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

A supporter holds up a portrait of opposition leader Aung Sun Suu Kyi on June 19, 2013, at a celebration of her 68th birthday outside the National League for Democracy headquarters in Rangoon. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Her adoring compatriots believe democracy champion Aung San Suu Kyi is destined to become Burma's next president. But don't bet on it.

A year ago, the Nobel Peace Prize winner was feted at home and abroad and flush from her National League for Democracy (NLD) party's landslide wins in April 2012 by-elections, which swept her into Parliament.

Even a military-drafted Constitution designed to exclude her from the highest office seemed a surmountable hurdle.

Now the journey from political prisoner to president appears much less certain, even as her ambition is clearer than ever.

"I want to be president and I'm quite frank about it," she told journalists at the World Economic Forum in the capital Naypyidaw on June 6.

But to emerge as president after a 2015 general election, Suu Kyi, 68, must overcome challenges that would daunt a less formidable political survivor.

She must convince a military-dominated Parliament to amend the Constitution.

Even if she can do that, and the Constitution can be amended in time, she could then face a voter backlash over her position on a violent and widening rift between her nation's Buddhists and minority Muslims.

Her rare public expressions of support for Muslims, who have borne the brunt of waves of sectarian violence, put her in a politically fraught position in the Buddhist-majority country.

Some people wonder if the violence is being exploited by conservative opponents to chip away at her support.

To win power, she would also have to fend off two former generals who covet the top spot. The first is Shwe Mann, the influential speaker of Burma's lower house.

The other is the popular incumbent Thein Sein, whose quasi-civilian government took power in March 2011 after nearly half a century of military rule and launched a series of political and economic reforms. Thein Sein might seek a second term despite health concerns.

No Easy Task

Suu Kyi's most immediate problem is the Constitution.

It bars anyone married to a foreigner or who has children who are foreign citizens. Suu Kyi and her husband, the late British academic Michael Aris, had two children who are British.

"By all accounts it was drawn up with her in mind," Andrew McLeod, a professor at Sydney Law School and deputy director of the Myanmar Constitutional Reform Project, said of the Constitution, drawn up under the former military junta.

Any constitutional amendment would require 75 percent support in Parliament—no easy task when the constitution also reserves a quarter of seats for the military.

Most of the rest of the members of Parliament are members of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), created by the old junta and largely made up of retired military officers.

If passed by Parliament, an amendment must win more than half the vote in a referendum. Some analysts say there just isn't enough time to do all that before the 2015 election.

But even if she can pull off the amendments, the reality of partisan politics could threaten Suu Kyi's presidential hopes.

Suu Kyi, the daughter of the hero of the campaign for independence from Britain, faces pressure internationally to defend the persecuted, including Muslims. But when she does, her once-unassailable popularity is threatened.

At least 237 people have been killed in violence between Burma's Buddhists and Muslims over the past year and about 150,000 people have been left homeless. Most of the victims have been stateless Rohingya Muslims in the western state of Arakan.

Groups such as the New York-based Human Rights Watch have condemned Suu Kyi for not using her moral authority to speak in defense of the Rohingya for fear of upsetting the Buddhist majority ahead of the election.

A 1982 law bars most Rohingya from citizenship and the government—and many ordinary Buddhists—consider them illegal immigrants from Bangladesh even though many can trace ancestry in Arakan State for generations.

Alienating Voters?

When asked about her failure to strongly condemn violence against the Rohingya, Suu Kyi said at the World Economic Forum she didn't want to "aggravate the situation" by taking sides. But she has criticized a policy in Arakan State limiting Rohingya women to two children.

Suu Kyi has also said the government should re-examine the 1982 Citizenship Law. But that prompted the Daily Eleven newspaper to warn that any attempt by her to change the law would alienate voters and cost her party the next election.

For Suu Kyi the presidency would crown a remarkable life.

The military put her under house arrest in 1989 following the suppression of pro-democracy protests. The NLD swept a 1990 election by a landslide but the junta ignored the result and kept Suu Kyi under house arrest for 15 of the next 20 years.

She was released in November 2010 a week after a general election, widely regarded as rigged, swept the USDP to power. The NLD boycotted the election as undemocratic.

The European Union and United States have lifted or suspended most sanctions against Burma, although Washington warned they could be reimposed if it backtracked on reform.

Denying Suu Kyi a crack at the presidency could suggest to the world that Burma is doing just that, said McLeod. This could prompt Western companies to halt investment in one of Asia's last frontier economies.

But Bertil Lintner, a veteran journalist and author of several books on Burma, said that was not likely.

"I think the foreign business community would prefer to have the USDP and the military in power," he said. "For them, it means stability and continuity."

Additional reporting by Soe Zeya Tun.

China Threatens Death Penalty for Serious Polluters

Posted: 19 Jun 2013 11:04 PM PDT

A visitor wearing a mask walks outside the Forbidden City on a heavy haze day in central Beijing on Jan. 13, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

A visitor wearing a mask walks outside the Forbidden City on a heavy haze day in central Beijing on Jan. 13, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

BEIJING—Chinese authorities have given courts the powers to hand down the death penalty in serious pollution cases, state media said, as the government tries to assuage growing public anger at environmental desecration.

An increasingly affluent urban population has begun to object to China’s policy of growth at all costs, which has fueled the economy for three decades, with the environment emerging as a focus of concern and protests.

A new judicial interpretation which took effect on Wednesday would impose "harsher punishments" and tighten "lax and superficial" enforcement of the country's environmental protection laws, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

"In the most serious cases the death penalty could be handed down," it said.

"With more precise criteria for convictions and sentencing, the judicial explanation provides a powerful legal weapon for law enforcement, which is expected to facilitate the work of judges and tighten punishments for polluters," Xinhua said, citing a government statement.

"All force should be mobilized to uncover law-breaking clues of environmental pollution in a timely way," it added.

Previous promises to tackle China’s pollution crisis have had mixed results, and enforcement has been a problem at the local level, where governments often heavily rely on tax receipts from polluting industries under their jurisdiction.

Protests over pollution have unnerved the stability-obsessed ruling Communist Party.

Thousands of people took to the streets in the southwestern city of Kunming last month to protest against the planned production of a chemical at a refinery.

Severe air pollution in Beijing and large parts of northern China this winter have added to the sense of unease among the population.

Human rights groups say China executes thousands of people a year, more than all other countries combined. The death penalty is often imposed for corruption and other economic crimes.

Vietnam Hunger Strike Tests Official Intimidation

Posted: 19 Jun 2013 11:01 PM PDT

Cu Huy Ha Vu's wife, Nguyen Thi Duong Ha, center, and his sister Cu Thi Xuan Bich, second left, hold candles while joining a ceremony to pray for the release of lawyer Vu before his trial in April on charges of spreading anti-state propaganda, at Thai Ha church in Hanoi. (Photo: Reuters)

Cu Huy Ha Vu's wife, Nguyen Thi Duong Ha, center, and his sister Cu Thi Xuan Bich, second left, hold candles while joining a ceremony to pray for the release of lawyer Vu before his trial in April on charges of spreading anti-state propaganda, at Thai Ha church in Hanoi. (Photo: Reuters)

HANOI, Vietnam — Cu Huy Ha Vu's books come with pages torn out by prison guards. Only some of his letters reach home. He is not allowed to access evidence from his trial or to see his wife alone.

This treatment, described by Vu's wife, has driven the Vietnamese legal scholar to a hunger strike that is now in its fourth week. Nguyen Thi Duong Ha says her husband told her Saturday that he hasn't eaten since May 27, even though she brings him orange juice and chicken stock, and that he won't until the prison officially replies to his complaints.

Now she worries the hunger strike may exacerbate Vu's longstanding heart problems and provoke a stroke.

"I live in fear," she said. "I can’t fall asleep because I’m afraid there may be a phone call with bad news."

Vu, the son of revolutionary poet Cu Huy Can, is among the many government critics who have been imprisoned as the Communist government, beset by economic troubles and complaints about corruption and inequality, cracks down on dissent. His hunger strike has drawn attention to the conditions dissidents face in prison and to his own 2011 conviction on charges that included conducting propaganda against the state, calling for multiparty government and demanding the abolishment of the party’s leadership.

On Tuesday the US Embassy and the London-based rights group Amnesty International both called for Vu's immediate release. Bloggers have rallied to his cause on the Internet, where Vietnamese continue to express dissent despite the arrests of three prominent bloggers in the past month.

"More and more, we are hearing about harsh treatment of prisoners of conscience in detention [in Vietnam], including solitary confinement, being moved from prison to prison without their families being informed, and inadequate food and health care," said Rupert Abbott, Amnesty International’s researcher on Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.

Vu, a 55-year-old, Sorbonne-educated lawyer, is among the ruling Communist Party's highest-profile critics. His father was not only a famous poet but the agriculture minister in the government of Vietnam's founding president, Ho Chi Minh.

Vu was arrested in 2010 after attempting to sue Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung twice—first for approving a Chinese-built bauxite mining project in Vietnam's central highlands, and later for prohibiting the filing of class-action lawsuits. The first suit was rejected by a Hanoi court, and the second was ignored.

In his dramatic one-day trial in April 2011, Vu’s lawyers walked out of the courthouse after a judge refused to read or distribute interviews Vu was accused of giving to foreign media, including the US government-funded Voice of America and Radio Free Asia. He was sentenced to seven years in prison and three of house arrest.

Carl Thayer, a Vietnam expert at the University of New South Wales in Australia, said Vu's case "is an illustration of the counterproductive policies of the Vietnamese Communist regime that seek to intimidate and silence critics." He added that Vu's revolutionary background "only serves to undermine" the regime's legitimacy.

Ha said her husband went on a hunger strike because prison officials haven’t responded to the official complaints he has issued in recent months. Vietnamese law requires the prison to respond to petitions within 90 days.

"He wants to be treated in accordance with the law," Ha said in a Hanoi restaurant Monday. "He’s a lawyer and he knows that he hasn’t done anything wrong."

Vu and his lawyers have complained officially that prison guards have prevented him from accessing evidence from his trial and from meeting privately with his wife when she visits the prison in northern Thanh Hoa province. He also wrote that a prison guard has tormented him by repeatedly opening his door.

Ha said some aspects of prison life have improved for her husband. His 20-square meter (215-square-foot) cell, which at first had no windows and just a rudimentary toilet, has been upgraded considerably in recent months.

Vietnam's state-run media has attempted to raise doubts that Vu is truly on a hunger strike through several recent newspaper and television reports. A doctor at the prison, for example, was quoted by People's Police newspaper on Sunday as saying that Vu's health condition was normal.

Deputy prison chief Le Duy Sau told the online newspaper VnExpress that Vu's complaint about the guard opening his door was "completely paranoid," and that Vu would be allowed to see his wife privately—if he repents for his crimes.

Sau added that Vu receives food from his family, but did not say whether he eats it. Prison officials could not be reached Tuesday, and the foreign ministry did not respond to a written request for comment.

Nguyen Thi Huong, who is engaged to another jailed dissident, said Vietnam's security forces intimidate dissidents' families through a variety of subtle tactics—including creating administrative barriers that prevent relatives from holding down jobs and attending college, and harassing them for speaking with the media.

Huong’s fiance, Nguyen Tien Trung, was jailed in 2010 on charges of plotting to overthrow the government after he advocated for political pluralism.

"They use the whole state apparatus in order to put pressure on the family of those political prisoners and make their lives difficult," Huong said Tuesday from Bloomington, Indiana, where she is completing a doctorate in law and democracy at Indiana University. "It's a very inhumane way for the government to silence dissent."

Ha, who like her husband is a lawyer, is running the family law firm from their French colonial villa in central Hanoi, down the block from the mausoleum where Ho Chi Minh's preserved corpse is displayed. The paint on the villa is peeling, and in the courtyard there is a bust of Vu's father.

Ha said some clients have shied away from their firm because of political sensitivities around her husband's imprisonment, and that the government has prevented the family from opening a Hanoi cafe by rejecting their application for a business license.

When she visited Vu in prison on Saturday, he looked weakened and stressed, she said. She urged him to end his strike, arguing that staying alive is more important than standing by his principles.

But Vu replied that he plans to hang in a bit longer in an effort to force prison officials to respond to his complaints. He also has said he plans to continue advocating for democracy, human rights and Vietnam's territorial sovereignty when he is released from prison.

"He’s proud to follow in his father’s footsteps," Ha said.

Social Network Gaffes Plague Japanese Politicians

Posted: 19 Jun 2013 10:58 PM PDT

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrives at Andrews Air Force base near Washington on Feb. 21, 2013. The prime minister has been reproached for remarks on Facebook that some deemed disrespectful to his opponents. (Photo: Reuters)

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrives at Andrews Air Force base near Washington on Feb. 21, 2013. The prime minister has been reproached for remarks on Facebook that some deemed disrespectful to his opponents. (Photo: Reuters)

TOKYO — On the Internet, no one can save you from yourself. That is a lesson many Japanese politicians have learned recently in painful, awkward and at times costly fashion.

In the latest flap, a senior reconstruction official in charge of helping victims of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear crisis was dismissed last week after he used a scatological insult on Twitter to deride civil activists.

Another official's loss of composure at a UN committee meeting might have gone unnoticed in another time, but today it's on YouTube. Even Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been reproached for remarks on Facebook that some deemed disrespectful to his opponents.

Japan only began allowing use of social media in political campaigns in April. As campaigning heats up for a pivotal July 21 election for the upper house of parliament, this relatively new tool for reaching the public appears as much a liability as it is a blessing.

Japanese politicians and government agencies control access to information through a system of press clubs, and to keep their memberships, traditional Japanese media often have overlooked politicians' gaffes. Politicians' aides also help them avoid making embarrassing comments on TV and in print media. But those filters disappear when a politician posts a comment online.

"It takes only one emotional sentence. Once you hit the comment or tweet button, it's too late. You're caught by gaffe watchers on the net, with your true nature exposed," said Junichiro Nakagawa, an editor at the Internet news site Shunkan Research News.

Yasuhisa Mizuno, the former Reconstruction Agency official for Fukushima-Dai-ichi victims, was fired over this tweet: "Attended a meeting where I was merely yelled at by leftist (vulgarity). Surprisingly, I’m not outraged. I only have pity for their lack of intelligence."

He posted the comment March 7, but it was overlooked for several weeks before "gaffe watchers" discovered it and made it more widely known.

In late May, Hideaki Ueda, Japan's representative to the United Nations' committee on torture, shouted while defending Japan's judicial system against criticism by an envoy from Mauritius who said its lack of protections for suspects' rights was "medieval."

Speaking in somewhat broken English in footage shown on YouTube and an official website, Ueda said, "Certainly Japan is not the Middle Age. We are one of the most advanced country in the field."

To giggles from the audience, he shouted, "Don’t laugh! Why you are laughing?"

"Shut up! Shut up!" he said. By Wednesday the video had been viewed on YouTube more than 200,000 times. The footage was also repeatedly shown on mainstream Japanese TV and in newspapers until the Foreign Ministry reprimanded him last week.

Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto said and tweeted that sex slavery by Japan's Imperial Army before and during World War II was a "necessary" wartime evil. He also used Twitter to post his suggestion that the US military patronize adult entertainment to help reduce sex crimes committed by American troops.

US officials characterized the comments as "outrageous and offensive." Hashimoto, a co-founder of the nationalist Japan Restoration Party, apologized, but only for his adult entertainment remark. He has continued tweeting his assertions about the Imperial Army's use of prostitutes.

Sophia University political science professor Koichi Nakano said gaffes by politicians and others spotlight a lack of sensitivity to a variety of issues, and to opposing views.

"The society that leaves such problems unchecked could become one that is insensitive," Nakano said. "People gradually lose sensitivity and then think nothing of it anymore."

One word that has drawn attention is "leftist," which is being used as a catch-all term for liberals supportive of minority rights and pacifism, and who sometimes challenge conservative values.

The media and the political opposition are taking Abe to task for using the term too casually. Abe has also called former Prime Minister Naoto Kan a leftist, criticizing his civil activist background and relatively lenient stance toward North Korea.

Abe, who is known for his nationalist and hawkish views, complained in a recent Facebook entry about hecklers at a public rally. "A group of leftists came into the crowd, intensely trying to interfere with my speech by shouting into a loudspeaker and banging drums, full of hatred," he wrote/

"Mr. Abe, what do you mean by 'leftists?'" asked Hideo Matsushita, senior editor at the liberal-leaning Asahi newspaper, in a commentary published Sunday.

Many of the hundreds of comments attached to Abe's Facebook entry expressed support for his remark, along with hatred of the political left, ethnic Koreans and China. But others questioned for using the word "leftists" to describe hecklers who were apparently opposing Abe’s plans to join a US-led trans-Pacific trade bloc.

Matsushita said Abe showed a lack of respect for dissent and was fanning animosity toward Japan’s neighbors and ethnic minorities.

"What's the point of making a distinction between the left and the right?" he asked.

Since taking office in December, Abe has mainly focused on the economy. But his wider agenda includes revising Japan's pacifist constitution to allow a stronger military and building what he calls a "beautiful country" through patriotic education, traditional family values and respect for the emperor. Some critics say his plans harken back to the militaristic atmosphere prevailing before and during World War II.

The emergence of Hashimoto's Japan Restoration Party and the Liberal Democrats' victory in December elections is seen by many in Japan as a swing to the right that has been accompanied by verbal attacks on Japan's sizable ethnic Korean minority both on the Internet and in street protests, where members of ultra-rightist groups have shouted threats like "Kill Koreans" and "Go back to Korea."

Hundreds of thousands of Koreans comprise Japan’s largest ethnic minority group. Many are descendants of workers shipped to Japan during its 1910-1945 colonial rule of Korea. Decades later, they still face widespread discrimination in education, business and marriage.

Anti-Korean sentiments have prompted a group of lawmakers and experts to propose excluding "hate speech" from the constitutionally guaranteed right to freedom of expression.

"These problems underscore Japan's lack of human rights awareness, and the world is raising its eyebrows," said Kazuko Ito, a lawyer who heads Japan's branch of Human Rights Now.

AP writer Elaine Kurtenbach contributed to this report.

Intertwined Destinies in Thailand and Myanmar

Posted: 19 Jun 2013 09:28 PM PDT

One of the myriad fusses in official Thai history focuses on Siamese independence in December 1767 after its capital Ayutthaya had been sacked by converging Burmese armies seven months earlier. It is said that the reclamation of independence was attributable to King Taksin's uncommon valor and extraordinary skill in military leadership, strategy and organization. While this story carries half of the truth, it is an anecdotal illustration of two ancient rival empires and deep-seated foes whose future directions are as entwined as their recent pasts have diverged. With the contrasting fate and fortune of ancient Burma and Siam, Myanmar and Thailand must now find ways to work and grow together for mutual benefit in the 21st century.

The King Taksin tale in Thai history conveniently omits the fact that Ava, Burma's capital at the time, was being besieged by Chinese hordes who had invaded from the north. Instead of recalling his armies back immediately to defend the capital, King Hsinbyushin held off the Chinese while telling his commanding generals to finish the job in Siam. They did. The once-glorious Ayutthaya Kingdom ended then and there. The Burmese armies then managed to return and beat back the Chinese invaders, leaving only a small garrison at Ayutthaya that was subsequently routed by Taksin, whose kingship lasted just 15 years before the current Chakri Dynasty took over and reigned to this day.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak teaches international political economy and directs the Institute of Security and International Studies at the faculty of political science, Chulalongkorn University.

Along the historical narrative of war and conquest between Burma and Siam, the Burmese mostly had the upper hand vis-à-vis the Siamese. Only during a brief period in the early 17th century, under their most ingenious military strategist King Naresuan, did the Siamese take the battle into central Burma. For much of the competing empire years, it was the Burmese who went on the march. Burma was fundamentally a warrior state, whereas Siam was quintessentially a trading nation. One kingdom was wholly preoccupied with war and conquest, the other mainly with trade and commerce. Mixed with geographical location and terrain and the course of history, these DNA strands in their respective peoples, lands and nationhood explain where Thailand and Myanmar stand today.

Geography was decisive. Burma was next to British India. Being a warrior race, the Burmese fought three wars against the expansionist British in the 19th century and lost each time, culminating with the ignominious dissolution of the Burmese monarchy in 1885. Each Burmese defeat partly enticed the Siamese to make concessions to the British, capped by the transfer of northern Malay states to Britain in 1909. After Britain annexed Burma, the Siamese also made concessions to French imperialists who were pressing from Indochina. In 1893, the French gained much of what is Laos and Cambodia today. Such is the close historical parallel between Burma and Siam—between a warrior culture that could not withstand Western imperialist forces, and a culture of slippery but pragmatic Siamese that survived.

The intervening 20th century also blew different storms towards the two nations. Burma eventually regained independence and became a thriving democracy in the 1950s before an autarkic military rule set in by 1962. After a quarter century of insularity, it opened up again in fits and starts, now beset by baggage from its past. Myanmar's unruly ethnic composition and mountainous terrain have posed challenges for governance and stability. Its suppressed superiority complex may now be at the heart of the widening religious and sectarian violence after the political openings and reforms that began in 2011.

By contrast, Thailand, as Siam was called after 1939, over much of the same period from 1957 to 1988 harbored military regimes that were open to business, trade and investment, perhaps because of its lack of colonization and its proclivity for trade and commerce. The generals empowered development technocrats to run the economy, laying the groundwork for four decades of relative economic prosperity. The long boom spawned growing middle classes that promoted gradual democratization. But it was too intense and its fruits were too concentrated in upper and middle classes and did not sufficiently cascade down to the lower rungs. Thailand's social inequalities and economic disparities over time were later exploited by Thaksin Shinawatra. And Thailand has been stuck in a holding pattern since its 2006 military coup. Mr Thaksin's forces have won all elections since 2001 but are unable to rule and lead resolutely, whereas his adversaries can stymie and stonewall to keep Mr Thaksin at bay but cannot win once at the polls.

After Burma's and Siam's paths diverged over a century ago, Myanmar and Thailand have reconnected in a new orbit of the 21st century. Thailand now relies on Myanmar for much of its gas supply (its main source of electricity generation), labor force and security needs, such as drugs suppression. Without Myanmar, Thailand would face power blackouts and skyrocketing wages. For its part, Myanmar has shelved its nuclear weapons program, and has gained from workers' remittances, as well as aid, loans, investment deals and capacity-building programs from Thailand. The Bank of Thailand, for example, assisted with the recent float of the kyat.

Thailand also no longer officially supports the hitherto "buffer" policy of aiding, abetting and sheltering ethnic minorities, such as the Shan and the Kayin, who have battled against the Tatmadaw. In fact, there is now a consensus in Thailand over its Myanmar policy. All Thai governments, whether under the current Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra or the opposing former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva in 2008-11, have pursued cooperation and collaboration on all matters of bilateral trade and development with Myanmar. The same consensus, for example, does not hold with Thai policy towards Cambodia.

The current big deal in Myanmar-Thai relations is the Dawei mega-project. What both sides must do is take a long-term view and avoid myopic parochial interests. The multi-billion-dollar deal began in 2008 when Thai construction conglomerate Ital-Thai Development was awarded a concession to develop 250 square kilometers centering on Dawei. As the project languished, the Yingluck government has shouldered the burden and appears poised to undertake some investments with public funds for ITD's private benefit.

In addition, Mr Thaksin lurks in the background as he has reportedly expressed investment interests in relation to the project. Myanmar's authorities would do well not to repeat Cambodia's mistake by taking sides in Thailand's deeply divided society. Myanmar's dealings with Thailand should be multifaceted and inclusive with all major stakeholders. The same goes the other way. Thailand's government should extend goodwill gestures and deal with Myanmar's principal stakeholders in a comprehensive fashion, and not favor any particular party or faction with vested economic and business interests in mind.

More broadly, Thailand is Myanmar's corridor to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), and Myanmar's awakened presence has turned mainland Southeast Asia into a beckoning and burgeoning region that will only expand in GDP terms. The combined consumer market of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand, along with connected links to Vietnam, Yunnan and Malaysia, exceeds 350 million, underpinned by abundant natural resources and growing transport and communications connectivity. The economies of this region are set to grow on their own, overlapping with some of the promises of the Asean Community after 2015. The challenge will be politics, big and small.

The big politics will be how to keep a major-powers balance in mainland Southeast Asia, leveraging the United States, Japan and Asean on the one hand and China on the other. This region is China's natural sphere of influence but it must be kept in check by other major powers to ensure that regional interests are kept in a workable and mutually beneficial mix. No major power should be allowed to dominate mainland Southeast Asia. Myanmar and Thailand can leverage the other major players to achieve this objective.

The small politics will be within. Notwithstanding shortcomings and setbacks, Myanmar's democratic development must remain on track, while Thai democracy must consolidate and entrench beyond elections. In both countries, democratic institutions to promote checks-and-balances, participation, and transparency and accountability are imperative. Myanmar and Thailand may be at different stages on different roads, but their ultimate destinations are so close that it is now in both countries' interests to embrace each other with the same energy with which they once fought.

This story appeared in the June 2013 print issue of the Irrawaddy Magazine.
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