Saturday, June 22, 2013

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine

A Radically Different Dhamma

Posted: 22 Jun 2013 12:01 AM PDT

U Wimala delivers a sermon to Buddhist followers. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

U Wimala delivers a sermon to Buddhist followers. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

MAWLAMYINE, Mon State — It's around 8 pm on a recent evening in Mawlamyine, the capital of Mon State, and U Wimala Biwuntha, a Buddhist monk, is about to arrive to deliver a sermon at a temple in the city's Aut Kyin Quarter. Despite his reputation as a charismatic speaker, however, there are barely a hundred people inside the main religious hall, and perhaps another hundred—mostly children—outside.

"Please go in," some women tell me and a few others who are standing outside. "There are not so many people here tonight, so the Sayadaw might be upset."

A few minutes later, U Wimala, who looks much younger than his 40 years, makes his appearance. After chanting a short Buddhist prayer, he begins his sermon with an ominous warning: "We Buddhists are like people in a boat that is sinking. If this does not change, our race and religion will soon vanish."

"And so," he adds, "tonight's sermon will be about 969."

He pauses briefly, then asks, "What is tonight's sermon about?"

"969," his audience replies.

"What is it about?" he repeats through his microphone, raising his voice.

"969!"

"Louder! You have to shout it louder. Even if you make this Dhamma Yone [religious assembly hall] collapse, we can rebuild it."

It was a strange scene, more reminiscent of a political rally than a Buddhist sermon. But it didn't come as a surprise: U Wimala was well known as a firebrand monk and a leading exponent of the 969 movement that has in recent months attracted a great deal of attention in the country and, indeed, around the world. Regarded as a brand of extreme Buddhist nationalism, it has been linked to recent outbreaks of anti-Muslim violence in central Myanmar that many worry could turn into a nationwide conflagration.

The women who had guided us into the building also handed us pamphlets spelling out what 969 stands for. "We Buddhists must protect our race and religion by worshiping and applying 969," the tracts say. Meanwhile, loudspeakers blare out a song with a similar message: "We Buddhists shouldn't stay calm. If we are calm, our race and religion will vanish."

U Wimala explains in his sermon that the numbers in 969 refer to the nine special attributes of the Buddha, the six special attributes of his Dhamma, or teachings, and the nine special attributes of the Sangha, or community of monks. While most regard 969 as a relatively new movement, for U Wimala it is as old as Buddhism itself.

"You must remember," he says in a booming voice, "that 969 has existed for 2,600 years. Christianity emerged 620 years after 969, and Islam more than a thousand years after 969."

At the same time, however, he acknowledges the movement's newfound notoriety.

"Some people ask, 'Is it legal?' I don't even know how to answer that question. Isn't the Buddha legal? We monks are legal, aren't we?"

He also insists that the movement is non-violent, relying only on boycotts of Muslim-owned businesses bearing the number 786, which is used by Muslims in Myanmar to mark halal restaurants and shops, to achieve its goals.

"We have never spoken of beating or killing people of different religions," he insists. "Our Buddha taught us never to kill any creature, let alone people or members of different religions."

But if these words were intended to reassure Muslims, who make up roughly half the population of Mawlamyine's Aut Kyin Quarter, they failed.

"It's scary, the way he speaks," U Tin Aung, a 68-year-old Muslim man, told me outside the temple after the sermon. It wasn't so much the words, he said, but the intensity with which they were delivered.

Distorting the Dhamma

Muslims are not alone in feeling that there's something distinctly unnerving about the way the 969 movement seeks to instill fear in the hearts of Buddhists about a supposed Muslim conspiracy to drive their faith out of Myanmar, where it has taken firm root over the past two millennia.

"This is the first and last time," said one of the organizers of the evening's sermon. "We intended this for young people and kids. We didn't know he would talk about all this 969 stuff."

Others I spoke to were also less than impressed by U Wimala's fiery rhetoric.

"He sounds like Hitler," U Htun Than, a 57-year-old Buddhist and former political candidate in Myanmar's 1990 elections, told me bluntly after we sat through the sermon. "It will be a big problem if his group becomes stronger."

U Kyaw Kyaw, another local politician from the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), agreed. "You heard the song: 'We shouldn't stay calm. If we stay calm, our race and religion will vanish.' What is that supposed to mean? They are just agitating people. It has to stop."

During our conversation, U Kyaw Kyaw reminds me that the 969 movement has its roots in Mawlamyine, a city long known as a bastion of the Buddhist faith.

It was here, nearly two centuries ago, that local protests forced the closure of a missionary school after a Buddhist student converted to Christianity. Since that incident, which occurred just 12 years after the British assumed control of the southern part of Myanmar in 1824, Mawlamyine has had a well-earned reputation for being staunchly Buddhist, even as British rule brought with it an influx of mostly Muslim migrants from India, whose descendants now make up roughly a fifth of the city's population.

The 969 movement itself goes back to 1997, when a 40-page booklet titled "969" first appeared in Mawlamyine. Published by Hna Phet Hla (literally, "the beauty of both sides") and penned under the name U Kyaw Lwin, this short manifesto urged Buddhists to openly display the numbers 969 on their homes, businesses and vehicles. It didn't, however, single out any other religion for criticism. Instead, it merely called on Buddhists to be good people and support each other.

A few years later, however, another booklet started circulating that carried an overtly anti-Islamic message. Called "Worrying about the Vanishing of the Race," it also emphasized the need to behave properly, but among its 17 prescriptions for protecting the Buddhist religion were some that encouraged active discrimination against Muslims.

The book, which first appeared around 2000 and was never legally published (meaning that anyone found in possession of it faced a seven-year jail sentence under Section 5 (j) of the 1950 Emergency Act), said that Buddhists should employ a "three cuts" strategy against Muslims. This entailed cutting off all business ties; not allowing Buddhists to marry Muslims; and severing all social relations with Muslims, including even casual conversation. It stopped short, however, of advocating violence.

Even now, the 969 movement disavows violence, even as it is increasingly seen as playing a key role in stirring up anti-Muslim sentiment. Ostensibly, at least, its activities are peaceful. U Wimala, for instance, has instituted Sunday schools to teach Buddhist children the basics of the Buddha's teachings and social ethics. Some parents have been wary of sending their children to these schools, however, fearing they will be exposed to hate speech. But some of these schools attract as many as a hundred students, attesting to their popularity in some communities.

Buddhist Backlash

Proponents of the 969 movement insist that their goal is merely to protect their own religion, not attack the beliefs of others. But when asked why they urge Buddhists to boycott Muslim businesses, U Yaywata, the vice abbot of Mawlamyine's Mya Sadi Nan Oo Monastery, tells me that it is no more than a reaction to a Muslims' discrimination against Buddhists.

"I want to ask, who started this practice? For years, Muslims have refused to buy anything from Buddhist shops, even from betel nut sellers. They use 786 to support each other, so we have to do the same thing."

Sitting next to a bag full of 969 stickers—the most visible symbol of the movement, and an increasingly common sight in many parts of Myanmar—the 38-year-old monk continues: "Why doesn't Islam allow Buddhists to keep their religion if they marry Muslims? Their kids also have to become Muslims. Their religion doesn't allow freedom of belief and worship. They are violating basic human rights."

By adopting methods that they accuse Muslims of using against Buddhists, the followers of 969 are indeed having an impact. U Tin Aung, the Muslim man who spoke to me after U Wimala's sermon, said that his son's motorcycle spare parts shop has lost almost half its business in recent months. However, because his son's shop has a reputation for offering fair prices and good service, many customers are returning, he added.

Meanwhile, some Buddhists who pasted 969 stickers on their vehicles and houses have started taking them off. A motorcycle taxi driver said that after he put a 969 sticker on his bike, he started losing Muslim customers. So he removed it—not just because it was costing him money, he said, but also because he realized that the 969 movement was fundamentally racist.

U Tin Aung said he believed the worst of the 969 movement's misguided campaign to vilify Muslims had passed. "You know, people are interested in new things. It's just human nature, but it doesn't last," he said.

"The essence of any religion is peace, sympathy and beauty," he added.

The Politics of Religion

The 969 movement may be a relatively recent phenomenon in Myanmar, but intolerance is, unfortunately, nothing new to the country. While religion is occasionally seen as contributing to this problem, many observers would point a finger elsewhere, at state policies that have long exploited religious and ethnic differences to cement the military's hold on power.

"Ne Win is the real culprit, not 969," said U Htun Than, the politician who ran for election in 1990. Recalling that Muslims enjoyed equal status in Myanmar until Gen Ne Win seized power in a bloody coup in 1962, paving the way for half a century of military rule, U Htun Aung blamed the policies of the former ruling Burma Socialist Programme Party for deepening mistrust among Myanmar's different religious groups.

"The BSPP made religious discrimination official policy, forcing Muslims to increasingly rely on each other for support," he said. This, he added, resulted in growing resentment among Buddhists, who came to see Muslims as a people apart.

Despite decades of being treated with disdain, however, Muslims say they don't mind social attitudes toward them so much as the failure of the country's leaders to treat them as full Myanmar citizens.

"We don't care about being called dogs or kalar [a derogatory term for people of South Asian descent], we just want our basic human rights," said U Myint Lwin, a teacher at the Moree Mosque in Mawlamyine's Swan Gyi Quarter.

Although Myanmar has recently undertaken reforms and President U Thein Sein has promised to protect the rights of Muslims in the wake of the latest outbreak of anti-Muslim violence that began in Meikhtila in late March, U Myint Lwin said that it is still far from clear where the government stands on this issue.

"Look at how quick the authorities were to crack down on protests against the Letpadaung copper mine," he said, referring to a controversial Chinese-backed project in Sagaing Region. "Why were they so slow to take action in Meikhtila and other cities? If they had done their job there, the casualties and the loss of property would not have been so bad."

Asked if he felt disappointed that NLD leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has not been more vocal about attacks on Muslims, he said it was probably for the best that she hasn't spoken out on their behalf.

"We want her to be quiet on this issue. But we know that she feels sad for us," he said, adding that he believed the situation would improve if Daw Aung San Suu Kyi became president.

A Community on High Alert

In the meantime, Myanmar's Muslims are bracing for more attacks. Since the anti-Muslim riots in Meikhtila claimed 43 lives, there have been other attacks elsewhere in the country, most recently in Okkan Township, Bago Region, in early May.

"Since the Meikhtila riots, we haven't been able to sleep well," said U Zaw Naing, another Muslim man at the Moree Mosque.

In Swan Gyi Quarter, where the mosque is located, roughly 80 percent of the 1,400 or so households are Muslim, making it a likely target if the recent wave of violence spreads to the birthplace of the 969 movement.

There have been few incidents so far, but tensions are rising. A number of mosques, including Mawlamyine's largest, have had stones thrown at them, and when strangers show up in Swan Gyi, local residents become nervous.

"I don't want to blame anybody, because we don't know who threw the stones, but these things only started after the 969 DVDs started circulating," said U Myint Lwin.

"Actually, it doesn't matter who threw the stones. What we care about is the instigators, the ones spreading hate speech," he said. "And we know who they are: the 969 group."

In the end, he added, if this conflict gets out of hand, it will hurt everybody. "Both the winners and the losers will suffer great losses," he said.

This story appeared in the June 2013 print issue of The Irrawaddy magazine.

After Exile, an Artist Sees Burma’s New Colors

Posted: 21 Jun 2013 11:52 PM PDT

Win Pe, a leading figure in Burma's modern arts movement, is seen in Rangoon after 18 years in exile. (Photo: Sean Havey / The Irrawaddy)

Win Pe, a leading figure in Burma's modern arts movement, is seen in Rangoon after 18 years in exile. (Photo: Sean Havey / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON—Government censorship of art has eased in Burma, but Win Pe is still taking precautions.

Win Pe, a leading figure in Burma's modern art scene, displayed 20 colorful paintings of zodiac signs at his exhibition in Rangoon recently, but he kept others off the walls in an act of self-censorship.

"I left out the paintings named 'A Lion, but …' and 'Tribute to the Enemy,' which I drew with a sense of humor. I might not be allowed to travel out of the country if I show these pictures. Who knows?" he said. "I'm afraid because once I was blacklisted."

Win Pe spent 18 years in exile under the former military regime. He was forbidden from returning due to his outspoken criticism of the junta while participating in an international writing program at the University of Iowa in 1994.

Before that, he had risen to prominence in Burma not only as an artist, but also as a scriptwriter, director and novelist. But in the United States, struggling to earn a living in those fields, he took a job as a journalist with Washington-based Radio Free Asia and later became a senior editor for the broadcaster's Burmese section.

"I used to read Time and Newsweek to learn more about news reporting. For the Burmese newspapers, I didn't want to look at them because the reports showed no freedom. Even now, there isn't 100 percent freedom, and the media has to report carefully. Even my comment about this could anger the government," he said with a laugh.

Despite a long appreciation of blues and jazz music, Win Pe lost his appetite for Western music in the United States, though he rediscovered his love of classic Burmese music that he enjoyed as a child.

"It's very strange. It could have been because I was thinking about Burma so much at the time. In art, as well, I always wanted to paint Burmese landscapes, although landscapes of the United States are fabulous," he said.

As a journalist he developed a taste for feature stories, later joining the BBC's Burmese service and producing a radio program about his experiences back in Burma. The program, "Win Pe's Bag," discussed art and culture in Burma, with biographies of famous artists, directors and celebrities.

Before leaving Burma, Win Pe served as the headmaster of a fine arts school in Mandalay. As a student he had studied at the same school, the State School of Fine Arts—with courses on fine arts, sculpture, Burmese traditional music and dance—but he left his job after two years due to frustrations about the low budget and lack of support from the government.

"For the government at that time, opening schools for the fine arts and culture was just to fulfill a duty. They did not respect and understand the value of arts and culture. They never had much of a budget and they never offered support," he said.

"I submitted an appeal to the Ministry of Culture, but the minister was as depressed [about the situation] as I was. After all that, I decided to resign."

These days, Burma hosts state competitions for cultural music, composition and dance, but artists say the government needs to do more.

"The competitions are efficiently promoting art and culture to the youngsters, but it's only achieving 10 percent of the actual need," Win Pe said. "The government should sponsor the study of art and culture, make it compulsory for primary students, to promote creativity.

"Promoting art and culture is very important for the country, especially in this time of globalization. To present the country to the world—art and culture are the best way."

He says he never imagined living for so long in a foreign country. "I had to apply for US citizenship after living there in asylum for nearly 10 years," he said. "I don't know if I can go back [permanently] to Burma or not. Living in a foreign country is such a challenge."

Win Pe returned to his homeland after being removed from the blacklist by President Thein Sein's quasi-civilian government, which took power in 2011.

"I'm pleased because I can return home, but I feel so sad for my beloved poet Tin Moe, who died before this. He misses the country more than me. I would be blissful if I could return home together with him."

Burma is changing, he said, but slowly.

"Censorship is said to be easing a bit, but it's clear that people still need to be cautious," he said.

"I'd love to stay here in my country, creating my favorite art with pleasure, spending time with my fans. Even now, I planned to stay here for just a couple months but it's been nearly eight months at this point. However, I don't dare believe fully [in reform]. I will wait and see."

National Security Is No Excuse for Bad Behavior

Posted: 21 Jun 2013 11:37 PM PDT

Last month, the local Burmese authorities in Arakan State banned Rohingya Muslims from having more than two children and one wife. Officials in the western state, where hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced by ethnic conflict, decided to revive the long-dormant restriction and reaffirm it in response to the current political situation.

On Tuesday, hundreds of Arakanese took to the streets to uphold the ban. They even urged the government to extend the law to cover the entire state. Speaking to The Irrawaddy, demonstration leader Tha Pwint argued his support for the measure by saying that “we need to have something to keep their population in check.” As it stands now, the directive applies only to two Arakan townships where Muslims comprise 94 percent of population.

The announcement has prompted a great deal of anguished debate. Some politicians who have previously tried to capitalize on anti-Rohingya sentiment are beginning to appreciate that such policies also have costs — especially when it comes to Burma’s international reputation. If these views gain strength, they could help to minimize senseless violence.

Supporters of the ban argue that keeping the number of Rohingya under control is a matter of national security. It’s an issue, they believe, that takes precedence over the protection of human rights. Advocates of the restrictions defend them by cherry-picking examples from other countries: China's one-child policy, Vietnam’s two-child policy, and so forth. What the comparison tends to overlook, however, is that these countries chose these policies as family planning measures. That has little to do with the Arakan law, which targets only one small group for reasons that have little to do with total population control. (The Rohingya make up approximately one percent of Burma’s population.)

The advocates also invoke “national security” without clearly defining what they mean by the concept. A well-known supporter of the ban claims that one major national security issue at stake is illegal immigration and the corruption of a weak state that allows it to grow. Oddly though, the two-child policy doesn't apply to Chinese immigrants, who have been a source of tension in the past. With this exception, it is hard to buy the notion that illegal immigration is the true underlying concern.

The real problem then, is not illegal immigration, or xenophobia, but Islamophobia. Advocates of this ban want to protect the dominant Burman Buddhist population. But they fail to recognize the reality that Burma is a multi-national state that can only survive if it offers equal rights to all of its citizens regardless of ethnicity or religion.

They see the issue in zero-sum terms where the growth of the Rohingya population will infringe upon the rights of Buddhists. The resulting policy reaction is one that legitimizes exclusion and violence. In the national security mentality of these advocates, the security provider is none other than the state (i.e. the military). In order to wipe the Rohingya out, they don’t mind delegating power back to the once-abusive patron under the justifications of “national interests” and their half-baked understanding of “realpolitik.”

A good example of this is the '969' movement, a loosely organized Buddhist group that agitates for the protection of Buddhist privileges and strongly advocates the two-child limit. The group makes no distinction between Rohingya and other non-Rohingya Muslims in the country. The group calls for a boycott against businesses run by Muslims and distributes anti-Muslim propaganda, including pamphlets, religious sermons, DVDs, and Facebook posts. The group has also been accused of instigating recent anti-Muslim violence.

Political leaders in Burma appear to be balancing between the populist anti-Muslim stance and a more liberal position that also offers the benefit of placating the international community.

President Thein Sein's spokesperson, for example, has distanced the government from the two-child policy by dismissing it as a local initiative. “We will look into it,” he has told the press — and that’s as far as the government is willing to go. The government, which desperately needs international acceptance and actively seeks assistance, was quick to affirm that it would take international standards into consideration when it implements a population policy in the future. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi also weighed in, saying, with the caution characteristic of her approach to this issue: “If this [reported policy] is true, then it is against the law.” Aung San Suu Kyi, who is a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has faced criticism for failing to defend minority rights.

The political or moral considerations behind the various stances are, however, ultimately irrelevant. What is important is that the government, at all levels, must act firmly and clearly in the defense of the rights of its citizens, regardless of their backgrounds.

The response of the international community has been commendable. The United Nations says that imposing a two-child limit on a Muslim minority group would be discriminatory and a violation of elementary human rights. The United States has also made it clear that it opposes any such “coercive and discriminatory birth limitation policy.”

Both reformist incumbents and opposition groups must be reminded that any democratization process entails defining the demos, those who constitute the citizenry of the country. This is a fundamental point that has nothing to do with national security. The government must address the two potentially explosive questions integral to any democratic transition: Who is a citizen of the state, and how are the rules of citizenship defined? How history ultimately judges Burma’s transition will depend on how well and fairly they address these questions.

This article first appeared on June 7, 2013 on Foreign Policy's Transitions Blog.

Min Zin is a PhD candidate at the University of California, Berkeley. This commentary originally appeared on the Foreign Policy blog "Transitions." The views expressed here are those of the author.

Burma Business Roundup (June 22)

Posted: 21 Jun 2013 11:30 PM PDT

South Korea Offers Loans Aid While Seeking Big Infrastructure Contracts

South Korea's first major trade delegation, led by Finance Minister Hyun Oh-seok, visited Burma this week amid reports that the Korean government intended to triple its development aid and cheap loans to US$100 million.

Korean industrial firms are bidding to win contracts to help develop the planned new Rangoon airport at Hanthawaddy, said the Korean news agency Yonhap.

"South Korea plans to discuss signing an investment pact with [Burma]," the agency quoted government official in Seoul as saying.

The Incheon International Airport Corporation has already lodged a bid for a contract to work on the Hanthawaddy project.

Korean policy makers accompanying the Seoul finance minister intended to "discuss ways of sharing South Korea's experience from the 'Saemaul Movement,' a government-led campaign that is credited with helping modernize the once rural Korean economy and overcome the country's poverty," Yonhap said.

The Saemaul Movement, or New Community Movement, was introduced in 1970 to transform South Korea's poor agriculture-based economy and break the disparity in wealth between urban and rural communities—a situation similar to that in Burma today.

Vietnamese Firm 'Finds Gas in Burma Waters' of Bay of Bengal

Vietnam's state-owned oil company has struck gas in its M-2 Block in Burmese waters of the Bay of Bengal, according to the industry magazine Upstream.

Few details have yet been disclosed other than that the find was made while PetroVietnam Exploration Production was drilling its first well in the 10,000-square-kilometer block southwest of Rangoon.

The reported find comes days before the Ministry of Energy is due to announce the winning bids for 30 other offshore blocks. The deadline for lodging tenders was June 14.

PetroVietnam's discovery also follows an announcement that it had sold a stake in the M-2 Block to French company Maurel & Prom S.A. The size of the stake and the price paid has not been disclosed, but the oil website Rigzone said the two companies intended to "cooperate to share risks and opportunities in oil and gas exploration and production."

PetroVietnam has held the M-2 Block since 2008 along with several partners that included Vietsovpetro, a Vietnamese-Russian joint venture, and Burma's state-owned Myanma Oil & Gas Enterprise (MOGE), which has been frequently criticised for lack of transparency in its business dealings.

The Ministry of Energy said this week that the number of approved joint ventures between domestic and foreign companies in the oil and gas sector is now 145.

ILO Lifts Forced Labor Sanctions, but Claims of Army Abuse Continue

Trade and investment in Burma could be boosted by a decision of the International Labor Organization (ILO) to lift all sanctions against the country, the Naypidaw government said this week.

The ILO's annual conference in Switzerland agreed to end the remaining sanctions, which were imposed 13 years ago amid forced labor allegations against the former military regime. The junta, led by Gen Than Shwe, had failed to give assurances that the practice would end—leading to an intensification of Burma's international isolation.

The ILO said it was ending all sanctions in recognition of the social progress made in Burma since the Than Shwe regime handed power to President Thein Sein.

However, a number of international human rights groups say there is continuing labor abuse in Burma, especially in areas of military conflict where the Army is accused of forcing local people to act as porters.

Burma's Rice Export Market Rivals Face Growing Sustainability Problems

Burma's ambitions to challenge major regional rice exporters Thailand and Vietnam received a boost with a business risk report that said the rival countries faced mounting problems.

The rice industry in both Thailand and Vietnam was marred by corruption, government meddling and water irrigation problems, said Maplecroft Global Risk Analytics.

"In particular, significant government intervention in the rice sector to increase returns for producers has had an extensive effect in disrupting the export market [while] Measures being considered to address the problems caused will potentially adversely affect production levels into the future," the Commodity Risk Report Rice study said of Thailand.

Similar government meddling in Vietnam "have substantially affected the export value of Vietnamese rice," said Maplecroft.

Labor rights linked to rice production in Thailand and Vietnam were also a problem that potentially affected the reputational risks of foreign buyers.

"High numbers of inadequately protected illegal migrant workers in Thailand present reputational risks to sourcing companies, while regulation of occupational health and safety also remains poor," the study said.

Burma, once the world's biggest rice exporter before the industry was ruined by the political polices of Gen Ne Win in the 1960s, has been slowly raising its rice production in recent years but still lacks investment to modernize infrastructure such as milling plants.

Call for Burma and Thailand to Cooperate in Rising Exhibitions Industry

Thailand should collaborate more with Burma to face "challenging times" ahead in trade and business growth, the Thailand Convention and Exhibition Bureau's (TCEB) exhibitions chief said.

The exhibitions industry within the 10 countries of Asean is growing and becoming more competitive, especially in the fields of transport, ICT, energy, education, culture and tourism, said Supawan Teerarat.

"[Burma] and Thailand are facing challenging times when collaboration, especially in trade relations development and technology, is crucial to secure sustainable business growth," she was quoted as saying by TTR Weekly, a tourism industry magazine.

"Participation in trade shows organized in Thailand will help companies in [Burma] to network with Thai and regional stakeholders at both government and commercial levels. This will help [Burma's] companies to increase their trading value through Thailand's exhibition platform."

Last month, the TCEB staged its first forum in Rangoon.

Naypyidaw Expected to Hold Major Conference With Ethnic Groups

Posted: 20 Jun 2013 05:48 AM PDT

Gen Gun Maw, deputy chief of the Kachin Independence Army, on the way to a meeting room in May ahead of peace talks with the government. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

Gen Gun Maw, deputy chief of the Kachin Independence Army, on the way to a meeting room in May ahead of peace talks with the government. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON—Burma's government has told a visiting delegation from the European Union that it will hold a major conference with ethnic minority groups who are fighting for greater political autonomy.

The government will hold the conference next month, said a senior EU official from the delegation, which held two days of meetings with Burmese officials in Naypyidaw this week to discuss EU-Burma trade and investment, as well as the implementation of a large EU aid program in coming years.

"What is happening with the peace process is very encouraging, I must say. I think the government has succeeded in having ceasefires," David O'Sullivan, chief operating officer of the European External Action Service, which serves as an EU diplomacy corps, told reporters on Wednesday. "Hopefully now, with the completing of the full set of ceasefires, as I understand it, it's intended to hold a major conference in July, which would be the signing of a nationwide ceasefire, accompanied by the beginnings of political dialogue."

He said the conference was expected to engage in "the beginnings of a debate about how Myanmar could perhaps move toward a slightly more decentralized [system]."

"The word 'federal' is perhaps a loaded word, depending on where you come from, but allowing a greater degree of autonomy to some of the ethnic regions as part of an overall political settlement, this seems to us—we know how difficult it is—but it seems to be moving generally in the right direction," he said.

After Burma's independence from Britain, many of the country's ethnic minority states fought decades-long wars against the government's army in pursuit of greater political autonomy. Ethnic armed groups also fought for better human rights for ethnic minority people, who were long oppressed by the military regime and continue to lack equal representation under Burma's nominally civilian government, which took power in 2011.

President Thein Sein's government has signed ceasefire deals with most major ethnic armed groups, but clashes have continued in many areas.

In north Burma's Kachin State, fighting escalated in January this year after a 17-year ceasefire broke down in June 2011. Clashes died down in February with the start of peace talks, which last month led to the signing of a preliminary peace agreement between both sides, although a formal ceasefire has not yet been achieved.

Hla Maung Shwe, a peace negotiator from the Myanmar Peace Center in Rangoon, said negotiations with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) were the key to achieving a nationwide ceasefire agreement in Naypyidaw.

"If the government could sign a ceasefire with the KIA, President Thein Sein will hold a nationwide ceasefire agreement in Naypyidaw first," he told The Irrawaddy on Thursday. "Then it [the government] will have a framework for political dialogue."

Ten of 11 major ethnic armed groups have signed ceasefire agreements with the government. In addition to the KIA, smaller armed groups such as ethnic Naga and ethnic Paluang armed groups, as well as the All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF), are also still fighting with the government.

Leaders from the KIA and the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the KIA's political wing, say they will only sign a ceasefire agreement if Burma's government holds a political dialogue open to all ethnic people.

"We want all people to have the ability to participate in this event," said the KIA's deputy chief, Gen Sumlut Gun Maw. "But there are Naga and other armed groups which haven't yet agreed to a ceasefire. All of them should participate in this event. It should not only be the 11 ethnic armed groups."

Sam Khun, a spokesman for the United Wa State Army (UWSA) in east Burma's Shan State, said he did not believe a nationwide ceasefire would be possible without political dialogue.

But Maj Sai Hla, a spokesman for the Shan State Army-North (SSA-N), said the government did not yet have plans to discuss a federal system in Naypyidaw.

"As I understand it, they are not saying this will be a political dialogue. It's only to have a nationwide ceasefire agreement," he said.

USDP Will ‘Probably’ Support PR System: Party Leader

Posted: 20 Jun 2013 02:30 AM PDT

A Burmese election official displays a ballot paper during the parliamentary by-elections on April 1, 2012. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

A Burmese election official displays a ballot paper during the parliamentary by-elections on April 1, 2012. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON—Burma's ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) will likely support the adoption of a proportional representation (PR) system in the 2015 election, a party leader says.

Aung Thaung, a USDP lawmaker with close ties to President Thein Sein, told The Irrawaddy that his party, which holds the majority of seats in Parliament, would "probably" back the PR system to prevent the predominance of another big party.

"Big parties will become democratic dictators," said the lawmaker, one of the country's wealthiest businessmen and a former industry minister under the previous military regime. "They can monopolize everything. That is why we want a PR system. I presume the USDP will probably support it."

The USDP's main competition in the next election, the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) party, which is led by Aung San Suu Kyi, has publicly opposed the PR system, which would likely hurt its success at the polls.

"The main point is to terminate the possibility of emerging predominance of certain big parties," Aung Thaung said. "The disadvantage of FPTP is that it favors the big parties and the disappearance of small parties. The disappearance of small parties means they don't have a chance to take part in politics anymore."

His statement comes after Burma's Union Election Commission last week announced that it urged Parliament to discuss the possibility of replacing the current first-past-the-post (FPTP) system with the PR system, which allows parties to win seats in the legislature based on the percentage of votes they earn nationwide.

Aung Thaung rejected criticism that the public is not yet ready for the PR system.

"The PR system is new to the public, so we have to explain it to them," he said. "There are also three different types of PR systems. Which type will we use? We need to try to make the public vote for it. It's said that the PR system has been used in some democracies since 1800."

He said the gains from a PR system would outweigh the potential shortcomings, such as the possibility of a factionalized Parliament.

"The PR system has weaknesses," he said. "Problems may arise, like frequent arguments in Parliament, the breakdown of governance, and frequent elections. No party can dominate with different parties existing in Parliament, which leads to the formation of alliances between parties in order to form a government."

Suu Kyi's NLD supports the current FPTP system, whereby an election is won by the candidate with the most votes. An FPTP system would likely lead to a contest between the NLD and the USDP for the 75 percent of Parliament seats available in the next election.

NLD lawmaker Zaw Myint Maung, said the PR system was unacceptable and the very act of promoting it was an attempt to attack the NLD politically.

"The main intention is to weaken the strong parties, including the NLD," he said. "The NLD had a landslide victory in 1990, and again in the by-election. Bluntly speaking, it [the PR system] is a punch to the NLD."

He said Burma's democracy was still too new to handle the PR system, which is more complicated to implement than the FPTP system and less likely to offer fast, decisive voting outcomes.

"We cannot agree to a PR system, according to the present situation," he said. "We are going to think about it as the country matures democratically."

Lawmakers say the Union Election Commission's proposal to adopt the PR system will likely be discussed, concluded and confirmed after the next Parliament session on Tuesday.

The electoral commission submitted the proposal to Parliament last month at the recommendation of a 10-member democratic alliance, including the Chin National Party, the Democratic Party (Burma), the Democracy and Peace Party, the Union Democracy Party, the Phalon-Sawaw Democratic Party, the All Mon Regions Democracy Party, the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party, the National Democratic Front, and the Unity and Peace Party.

A PR system could allow some of Burma's 135 officially recognized ethnic minorities to achieve more representation, but not all ethnic minority parties support it.

At a meeting of 15 ethnic minority parties earlier this month in east Burma's Shan State, some party leaders said they could not agree to a PR system, which they said could lead to a breakdown in national government.

"I don't agree to it at all," said Khun Tun Oo, a leader of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy. "It will be difficult for minorities. We still need to learn a lot. How will the farmers and country folk, who make up 70 percent of the country's population, understand the PR system?"

Asia’s Last Economic Frontier Needs Hundreds of Billions of Dollars

Posted: 20 Jun 2013 01:16 AM PDT

Burmese President Thein Sein inspects a thermal power plant in Japan during a visit that focused largely on attracting Japanese investment in Burma's economy. (Photo: Reuters)

Burmese President Thein Sein inspects a thermal power plant in Japan during a visit that focused largely on attracting Japanese investment in Burma’s economy. (Photo: Reuters)

The winners of next week's bidding process to build Burma's wireless telecommunications network will need very deep pockets, according to the latest Monopoly board-game figures for developing the country.

"$50 billion is needed in telecommunications infrastructure if Myanmar [Burma] is to make full use of digital technology to leapfrog stages of development," say economists Martin N. Baily and Richard Dobbs in a critique of the level and focus of investment in the country.

Perhaps that kind of outlay is not what the dozen or so international telecommunications companies bidding for two network licenses have in mind, but it's what Baily and Dobbs believe will be necessary to help push Burma firmly into the 21st century by discarding some 20th-century models.

"For example, by using mobile banking or e-commerce to avoid the cost of building physical banks and shops and to extend health and education services to even the remotest villages," Baily and Dobbs outlined in a report for Project Syndicate, a website which publishes "original, engaging, and thought-provoking commentaries by esteemed leaders and thinkers."

Baily is a former chairman of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers and an economic policy development commentator at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Dobbs is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute.

US $50 billion is only a small portion of the hundreds of billions of dollars the authors reckon is needed to truly make Burma the last economic frontier of growth which international media have been talking up for the past year.

Baily and Dobbs calculate that around $300 billion is needed just to raise Burma's housing, electricity, transport and energy infrastructure to 21st-century standards. Half of this huge sum would need to be spent in the largest cities and towns, which they tip to expand considerably if the country moves away from its present agrarian base.

"Today, only an estimated 13 percent of Myanmar's population lives in large cities, but that could rise to 25 percent by 2030—an addition of 10 million people," say Baily and Dobbs.

Their figures suggest an annual investment of at least $20 billion a year through to 2030. But in Burma's last financial year, a total of $1.4 billion was actually invested, according to government figures.

This modest investment to date, the reality behind all the gung-ho headlines of boom, boom, boom, was underlined as a problem for Burma just recently by opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

"Certainly it is going to be an uphill task to attract the sort of investment to meet these [Baily and Dobbs] projections. Particularly so since the vast funds that, up until recently, have been sloshing around the world looking for yield are fast drying up," long-time Burma economy watcher Sean Turnell told The Irrawaddy on June 17.

Much of the inward investment in property construction is going into hotels to cater for the country's burgeoning tourism. Numerous foreign companies have visited Rangoon and Naypyidaw and made vague offers to build new electricity-generating infrastructure, but very little actual power plant construction is under way or confirmed as copper-bottomed projects.

Aside from the mobile telephone network franchises scramble, with winners scheduled to be announced June 27, one of the biggest looming investments is expected to be in the energy sector, with 30 offshore blocks up for development.

The closing date for offshore blocks bids was June 14 and the Ministry of Energy has said it will announce winners by the end of this month.

Nineteen of the blocks are in deep seas of the Bay of Bengal and only the major international oil companies have the necessary technology, skills and deep pockets to carry out expensive undersea exploratory drilling.

No firms have announced their bids but speculation in the foreign oil industry press has named Chevron, BP, Shell, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Petronas of Malaysia, PTTEP of Thailand and Norway's Statoil as possible contenders.

The short-listed bidders for phone network licenses already announced by the government include Singapore Telecommunications; Bharti Airtel of India; KDDI Corporation of Japan; Sumitomo Corporation, also of Japan; Telenor of Norway; and Vietnam's Viettel Group. Vodafone Group and its partner China Mobile Limited withdrew from the race to become the first foreign mobile phone network in Burma in late May.

Turnell, an economics professor at Macquarie University in Australia and co-editor of the Burma Economic Watch, said a lack of investment in basic infrastructure in Burma remained a "very significant problem". But he cited the example of the British-Dutch conglomerate Unilever's decision to develop a second factory in the country as "something quite positive".

"The Unilever story [is] still only one example of what needs to take place, but a step in the desired direction at least. This sort of investment employs people, is of the sort that must grapple with local laws, institutions and conditions broadly, and is the sort that puts down roots," Turnell told The Irrawaddy.

Unilever, a processed packaged foods-to-personal hygiene and household cleaning products giant, is due to open its first factory in Rangoon by the end of June, providing jobs for 150 people, and said earlier this month it would establish a second plant by the end of this year.

"Myanmar faces monumental development challenges that embrace virtually every aspect of the economy," said Baily and Dobbs. "But that implies the broadest possible range of opportunities for companies and investors as well. They should proceed with caution, but with the expectation of tapping into a potentially lucrative new market."
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