Wednesday, October 2, 2013

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine

Fresh Fighting Reported in Kachin State, Ahead of Ceasefire Talks

Posted: 02 Oct 2013 07:59 AM PDT

Kachin rebel soldiers wait outside Laiza Hospital morgue where a funeral service for a killed fellow fighter in January. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — As a government peace delegation and Kachin rebel leaders prepare for another round of ceasefire talks next week, tensions between troops on the ground remain high, according to a Kachin activist, who said that the sides recently clashed and that the Burma Army has moved into areas near displaced villagers' camps.

Khon Ja, an activist with the Kachin Peace Network, a Rangoon-based aid organization that assists displaced Kachin civilians, said "a severe clash" occurred near Mung Ding Pa village in Mansi Township, south of the regional town of Bhamo, on Monday evening.

She said 432 students were studying in Mung Ding Pa village, almost half of whom belong to displaced ethnic Kachin families.

According to sources working with displaced villagers in Kawng Ja and Namlimpa camps, located on the Burma-China border, the Burma Army has moved four battalions into areas nearby, to the distress of the families who fled to the camps to seek refuge from the conflict.

Khon Ja told The Irrawaddy that recent clashes and troop movements were affecting about 2,000 displaced ethnic Kachin villagers, as well as local villagers.

She said the military tensions could affect the upcoming ceasefire talks between the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) and Minister Aung Min's government peace negotiations team on Oct. 8-10 in the Kachin State capital Myitkyina.

"The fighting breaks out ahead of the peace talks. So, it seems that the government can’t influence the military," Khon Ja said.

She said that Burma Army had not ended encroachments into rebel-held territories, even though it has signed ceasefire agreements, adding that for this reason a ceasefire deal might offer few significant benefits to the KIO.

"Fighting even broke out in the areas controlled by ethnic armed groups, such as the Shan rebels, who have already signed ceasefire agreements with the government," she said. "So, it doesn’t really make a difference whether they sign a ceasefire or not—that might be the reason that the KIO hasn’t signed a ceasefire yet."

The Kachin rebels have been engaged in occasionally heavy fighting in northern Burma's mountainous northern Kachin State, after a long-standing ceasefire with the government broke down in June 2011.

Fighting escalated from December 2012 until February 2013, when government forced tried to encircle the KIO headquarters in Laiza, a town located on the Burma-China border.

Since then, there have been few serious clashes and the KIO leaders have met with government peace negotiators several times. The meetings have, however, produced no ceasefire agreements and there have been frequent reports of skirmishes between the army and the rebels.

The KIO have said they would not sign any ceasefire deal until Naypyidaw agrees to a political dialogue with all ethnic rebel groups, which are demanding greater political autonomy through the creation of a federal union in Burma. The government has been loath to give into this demand.

Naypyidaw, nonetheless, wants to soon hold a nationwide peace conference involving all or most ethnic groups, as it is keen to show the international community that is dealing with Burma's decades-old ethnic conflicts.

Currently, the government has ceasefire deals with most of the major ethnic rebel groups except the KIO. Some smaller groups, such as the Palang rebels (Ta’ang National Liberation Army), have also not signed an agreement.

The ongoing peace talks are further complicated by different alliances among the rebels.

The United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), comprising eight groups, recently held unsuccessful talks with Minister Aung Min in Chaing Mai, northern Thailand.

Following this meeting, Aung Min reportedly said he would no longer negotiate with the UNFC, but instead would try to meet with each individual rebel group in order to persuade them to join the national peace conference in November.

UNFC Secretary Khun Okkar told The Irrawaddy that he believed that Aung Min's words had been misinterpreted by some media outlets, adding that the UNFC would probably invited to attend the peace conference as "observers."

"We believe that U Aung Min will try to convince the KIO to sign the ceasefire in the upcoming meeting [next week]. And that he plans to meet with the Palaung rebels," Khun Okkar said.

"If it succeeds as planned, it will be easy [to organize a nationwide ceasefire]," he added.

Additional reporting by Lawi Weng.

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Violence Continues in Southern Arakan State, 6 Reported Killed, 60 Homes Destroyed

Posted: 02 Oct 2013 01:21 AM PDT

 

Muslims sit in a temporary refugee camp after losing their homes during recent violence in Thapyu Kyain village, outside of Thandwe on Tuesday. Click on the box below to see more photos. (Photo: Reuters / Soe Zeya Tun)

RANGOON — Inter-communal violence between Arakanese Buddhists and local Muslims continued to spread through villages in Thandwe Township, southern Arakan State, on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, according to a local community leader. He said six people died during the unrest, while 60 homes in five villages were destroyed.

Local police confirmed four deaths, while Arakan State spokesperson Win Myaing said 59 homes were destroyed. The official blamed the fresh inter-communal unrest on "Bengali people" who "wanted to create violence."

Win Naing, a National League for Democracy representative in Thandwe Township, said his NLD office had received information about the incidents and deaths from local sources.

"Three [of the victims] are men and two are women. We even heard that some people have disappeared and we heard that there are some wounded, but we don't have the exact number yet," he told The Irrawaddy. "They are Kaman [Muslims], they are ethnic nationals—not outsiders."

"I heard that the bodies of the dead would be brought to the hospital in Thandwe," he added.

Win Naing said the five had been killed on Tuesday morning when an Arakanese Buddhist mob attacked Thapyu Kyain village, an ethnic Kaman Muslim fishing village located about 15 miles (25 km) from Thandwe town. Another Muslim village called Pauktaw was reportedly also burned down on Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday evening at around 5 pm, two other Muslim villages, called Mae Kyun and Shweli, were attacked by Buddhist mobs from neighboring villages, Win Naing said, adding that in Mae Kyun nine houses were burned down.

On Wednesday morning at around 6 am, a local mosque was destroyed in another Muslim village, called Kyi Kan, he said. An old man who tried to flee the violence supposedly suffered a heart attack and died.

A police officer in Thandwe confirmed violence had spread on Wednesday morning, as Buddhist villagers went on a rampage, attacking nearby Kaman villages. "Last night, some homes in some villages were burned down," he said, "Today, we found 4 death bodies. They were Muslim men from Thapyu Kyain village."

The officer said some Buddhist villagers were attacked by a group of Muslims on a road in Thandwe Township. "From our police information, four persons were wounded. They were travelling from Taungup town and came to Thandwe. They were attacked on the road by Muslim people while they were driving their motorbikes," he said, adding that one of the victims had gone missing.

"They were beaten by sticks and even hit by knife. One is Chin ethnic and three other persons were Arakanese. They abandoned their motorbikes and ran away to escape death," he said, adding that the victims were sent to Thandwe Hospital for medical treatment.

During the attack on Thapyu Kyain village on Tuesday morning, security forces fired warning shot to disperse a mob of "between 800 and 1,000 people," police have said. Authorities have also said a 94-year-old Muslim woman was stabbed to death by mobs attacking the village.

Arakan State government spokesperson Win Myaing said he received reports that showed that one person was killed and 59 homes were destroyed in several villages in Thandwe Township.

Win Myaing said he believed the violence had been started by the Muslim minority, alleging that the group wanted to attract attention as President Thein Sein is currently visiting the region. "Bengali people wanted to create violence now," he claimed.

Lu Lay, a Muslim resident of Thandwe town, said he believed local authorities were providing insufficient security for the Muslim community. "It is quiet in the town, but people are still scared because there is not enough security," he said.

The attacks are the worst outbreak of inter-communal violence in Arakan State in several months, and the violence comes as Thein Sein makes his first official visit to the strife-torn region in western Burma since unrest first broke out in June 2012.

Thein Sein landed in the Arakan State capital Sittwe on Tuesday morning, with a delegation comprising cabinet ministers and senior military commanders, and planned to visit Mrauk-U, Kyauktaw and Maungdaw townships, government mouthpiece The New Light of Myanmar reported.

The president was flown to the towns by helicopter, but the newspaper provided few other details on Thein Sein's visit and made no mention of the current unrest.

Arakan State spokesperson Win Myaing said Thein Sein visited a camp for displaced villagers near Sittwe and the state legislature on Wednesday morning, and would visit Kyauk Phyu Township in the afternoon. He added that Thein Sein was scheduled to visit Thandwe on Wednesday.

NLD representative Win Naing said Thein Sein had arrived in the town on Wednesday afternoon and was scheduled to stay overnight.

A Thandwe police officer said authorities had been expecting the president to visit. "Our security forces have been on standby in the town, as the president is scheduled to visit," he said.

Thein Sein's government has been under international pressure to ease inter-communal tensions in Arakan State and improve the plight of tens of thousands of displaced Rohingya Muslims.

The government has imposed numerous restrictions on the displaced, who live in squalid, crowded camps. Authorities are accused of doing little to prevent the outbreak of violence against Muslim minorities. The UN human rights rapporteur on Burma has said authorities have been complicit in attacks by Buddhist mobs.

The US Embassy in Rangoon said in a statement on Wednesday that it was "saddened to hear reports that at least one person was killed, several injured, and hundreds of civilians displaced in violence that included arson attacks destroying dozens of homes and several mosques."

"We strongly urge the authorities to respond quickly and decisively to the violence to help protect all the region's residents and their property. We further urge the authorities to thoroughly investigate and hold accountable those responsible for the violence."

NLD representative Win Naing said he was concerned about a further spread of violence in Thandwe Township, in particular because security forces were not taking decisive action to stem the unrest.

"The police don't want to use their bullets. I don't mean they should shoot the attackers, but they can shoot in the air to stop the mobs," he said. "More homes were burned down now because they are reluctant to do that."

In late June this year, inter-communal unrest also broke out in Thandwe and four Muslim-owned homes were destroyed and several cars damaged.

More than 100,000 people live in Thandwe, a coastal town in southern Arakan State, and about half the population is Muslim. The town has an airport that is used by tourists visiting the popular beach resort Ngapali, located nearby.

The Muslim population of Thandwe comprises mostly ethnic Kaman and other recognized Muslim minorities, unlike in northern Arakan State, which has a large Muslim population who identify themselves as Rohingyas.

The latter group is not recognized by the government as Burmese citizens, and officials pointedly refer to the group as "Bengalis," to suggest they are illegal immigrants from Bangladesh.

Thandwe Township was largely spared from the bloody inter-communal violence that broke out in Sittwe, Maungdaw and other townships further north a year ago, where Arakanese Buddhists clashed with Rohingya Muslims.

During last year's outbreaks of violence, 192 people were killed and about 140,000 people were displaced, most of them Muslims. About half of the displaced were Muslim residents who were chased out of Sittwe by local Buddhist Arakanese groups.

In March and April, the sectarian tensions spread through Mandalay and Pegu divisions in central Burma and hundreds of Muslim-owned homes and shops were destroyed, 44 people were killed and more than 13,000 people, mostly Muslims, were forced to flee.

This story was updated at 6:30 pm on October 2, 2013.

 

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Japan’s Mitsubishi to Invest in Downtown Rangoon Development

Posted: 02 Oct 2013 04:34 AM PDT

An artist's impression shows plans to develop the area around Rangoon's historic railway office by Yoma Strategic Holdings and Japan's Mitsubishi Corporation. (Picture: Yoma Strategic Holdings)

RANGOON — Japan's Mitsubishi Corporation has teamed up with Yoma Strategic Holdings to turn a section of prime Rangoon real estate into a massive shopping, residential and office development, according to a statement Tuesday.

Mitsubishi Corp. and Mitsubishi Estate signed a memorandum of understanding with Yoma Strategic, Serge Pun & Associates (SPA) and First Myanmar Investment Co. (FMI) to invest in the project. Burmese businessman Serge Pun's is chairman of a Singapore-listed conglomerate Yoma Strategic.

The 10-acre project will be built in the area around downtown Rangoon's colonial-era railway office, adjacent to the Bogyoke Aung San Market and Traders hotel, on which the FMI Center and Grand Mee Ya Hta residences currently sit.

The project—which includes four glass and steel high-rise towers in a large complex connected to the red-brick colonial building—has previously been valued at US$350 million, although the size of Mitsubishi's agreed investment has not been announced.

The statement said the development will finally be approximately 2 million square feet of residential, office, retail and hospitality space.

Andrew Rickards, Yoma Strategic's chief executive, said in the statement that the project will create an "iconic centerpiece" for Rangoon's burgeoning business district.

"We believe the experience and expertise of Mitsubishi Corporation and Mitsubishi Estate in developing large scale mixed-use developments worldwide will help the project to achieve the highest global standard," he said.

The Japanese partners will be involved in the planning, design, construction and operation of the project as well as providing technical assistant, the statement said.

The project brings together Mitsubishi Corp., Japan's largest general trading company, and one of Burma's best known businessmen, Serge Pun, or Thein Wei, who has interests in real estate, agriculture, automobiles and luxury tourism in Burma.

Other than the Mee Ya Hta building, which is being closed down ready for demolition, it is unclear which other buildings in the area will have to make way for the project.

An artist's impression provided by Yoma Strategic shows that the development will be high-rise, apparently in contravention of a new zoning law being discussed by the city's authorities and urban development experts, which will restrict building around Rangoon's historic buildings.

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‘Letpadaung Will Provide a Good Future for All of Us’

Posted: 02 Oct 2013 04:28 AM PDT

Than Htike, the Sagaing divisional minister for forestry, minerals and energy, speaks with The Irrawaddy at the Letpadaung liaison office. (Photo: Zarni Mann / The Irrawaddy)

The last day for local residents to seek compensation for confiscated lands in the Letpadaung mining area came and went on Sept. 30, but a local official insists he is still happy to process additional claims despite the deadline having passed.

The Irrawaddy reporter Zarni Mann traveled to Sagaing Division, where the controversial mine is located, and met with Than Htike, the divisional forestry, minerals and energy minister, who is currently in charge of compensation distribution at the Letpadaung project's liaison office in the village of New Hse Tae and Zee Taw. The regional minister said that with nearly half of the owed compensation still to be handed out, he is available to "hear what the farmers have to say."

Question: What stage are you at in the process of distributing compensation for confiscated lands?

Answer: There are about 6490.88 acres of confiscated lands that we must provide compensation for. Through the end of September, we've provided compensation for 3348.29 acres. That means compensation has been given for 51.58 percent of the total lands confiscated.

Q: And what about those farmers who have refused to accept compensation?

A: That's why I'm here at the liaison office; to hear what the farmers have to say. Will they request to extend the date for compensation or not? Or will they have anything to request? I'm here waiting for them [the farmers], to hear from them and to report back to [Union Minister] U Hla Tun, president of the implementation committee for the report issued by the [government's] Letpadaung investigation commission, and to Sagaing Division Chief Minister U Thar Aye.

Some farmers are willing to be compensated, but they have been urged not to take the compensation, so they are afraid and dare not come here. For some others, they have problems with [proving legal] ownership of their lands so they have not had a chance to accept the compensation yet. For those kinds of farmers, we are helping them by presenting their cases to the court and discussing with lawyers to find a solution.

The money that remains in our hands, because some farmers are refusing to accept the compensation, will be in the bank. We've opened an account to save it and it will be later used for the development of the region.

Some farmers might be holding out hope that the compensation will increase. The compensation rate currently given was already decided by the implementing committee, according to the report of the investigation commission. So, we do not have any plan to increase the amount further.

On the other hand, if the production process begins, we will get 2 percent of the profits and our minister is thinking about development projects for this region with some funds from that 2 percent of profits.

Moreover, the committee is in discussions with the mining company [Wanbao Mining] about undertaking development projects in the region, including in the education, health, transportation and water sectors, which will cost around US$1 million over a one-year implementation period.

Q: Can you tell me the current operational status of the mine?

A: To my knowledge, the mining company is starting work in areas that have less impact. They are not working yet in areas where there are still problems with farmers.

Q: But there are many farmers who did not accept compensation and are still working on their lands, which are within the mining zone. With the resumption of activities by Wanbao, what will happen to them?

A: We've discussed that with UMEHL [Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Ltd], Wanbao and the border affairs minister. From the side of our minister, we understand the farmers so we've urged UMEHL and Wanbao to let them work on their lands until the project begins in that area. However, we [the implementation committee] do not have the authority to order them, and can only make suggestions. On the other hand, the farmers should know that they shouldn't work on their lands if the project has begun in the area.

Business firms and the international community are watching this Letpadaung mining project as a template for further investment in the country. The profits earned from this project are important for the country, and also indicate an understanding of the suffering of the locals.

The locals need to understand how the project will bring regional development as well. We've tried hard to explain this to the farmers, but it is very difficult for us because we are not so welcome to their village.

From this project, 51 percent of the profit will go to the country, 19 percent to UMEHL and 30 percent to Wanbao. Since our country will get 51 percent of profit from this project, we want to encourage the locals to understand that this project will provide a good future for all of us.

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Japan Interest in Dawei Industrial Zone Seen as Unlikely

Posted: 02 Oct 2013 12:11 AM PDT

Dawei Development Company Managing Director Somchet Thinaphong shows a model of the proposed SEZ during an interview in Bangkok. (Photo: Reuters)

Efforts by the Thai government to attract Japanese investment in a port-industrial complex at Dawei on Burma's southeast coast are doomed, a prominent regional economist said.

"I don't think the Japanese are at all interested in Dawei. To the extent their name keeps cropping up, I expect it reflects the desire of the zone's promoters, now essentially the Thai government, to have them involved," Sean Turnell a professor in economics and co-editor of the Burma Economic Watch bulletin told The Irrawaddy this week.

Turnell was commenting after a fresh round of promotional talks instigated by Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was held in Rangoon last week.

Japanese government representatives participated in the meeting, which also included Set Aung, deputy minister for Burma's National Planning and Economic Development agency, and the secretary-general of Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Board, Arkhom Termpitthayapaisith.

The Japanese have made no public statements on Dawei and reports from Burmese and Thai media conflict on what Japan said at the September 27 Rangoon meeting.

Tokyo intends to make more studies of the Dawei plan before making any commitments, the Bangkok Post reported, and these could take up to one year.

"Japan needs more information before making the decision on whether the country will join the project,'' the newspaper quoted Arkhom saying.

However, the Myanmar Times quoted Set Aung saying that Japan is expected to announce a decision on the Dawei special economic zone (SEZ) as early as November.

This lack of clarity on the possible involvement of Japan underlines the continuing stall on any serious development at Dawei, five years after the former military regime of Than Shwe signed an agreement permitting Bangkok construction company Italian-Thai Development (ITD) and Burmese business partner Max Myanmar Group to go ahead.

Max Myanmar Group has since bowed out of the project.

For more than a year, Thailand's Yingluck government has been publicly pressing Japan to join the Dawei project, which would cost billions of dollars. Bangkok's interest has grown since ITD admitted it did not have the capital to deliver the project.

"The Japanese pay lip-service to the idea the [Dawei] zone is viable, and may attract some of their corporates, but I expect that this is with an eye to their real interests, such as the Thilawa SEZ [in Rangoon], rather than anything to do with Dawei really," Turnell said.

Yingluck last year held one-to-one talks with President TheinSein to promote a Dawei SEZ, and as recently as last month raised the issue yet again during a visit to Bangkok by Shwe Mann, Naypyidaw's parliamentary speaker and a senior government official.

But the main beneficiary of any development at Dawei is seen as Thailand, which wants to establish an oil transhipment terminal to pump imported crude to the greater Bangkok region, and to build a petrochemicals production estate, primarily to serve Thai industry.

"Dawei really seems to be struggling. Always really a Thai story in its fundamentals, with Burma's old regime playing along for the cash, it is hard to imagine now that progress can be made without fiscal commitments from the Thai state," Turnell said.

Renewed efforts by Thailand to rekindle Burmese and Japanese interest coincides with protests by a community group in the Dawei area, alleging that an ITD subsidiary, Dawei Development Company, is carrying out ground clearing work and disrupting homes and livelihoods.

The complaints by the Tavoyan Women's Union have prompted calls by the international rights group Burma Campaign UK for respect for human and land rights at Dawei.

"Japanese companies thinking of investing in the zone should be using their influence to persuade developers to respect the rights of local communities, or they will be storing up trouble for the future," Mark Farmaner the director of Burma Campaign UK told The Irrawaddy this week.

"If the rights of local people continue to be literally bulldozed, the project will face costly delays and probably even more costly legal action in the future," he said.

The NGO last week highlighted a video produced by the Tavoy group, which it said "exposes how the Thai and Burmese developers of the Dawei deep sea port project are abusing local villagers' rights".

Dawei is also known as Tavoy.

Although there is no funding for port and industrial development, the ITD subsidiary is carrying out basic land clearance and some road construction.

"Company construction vehicles are ruining local roads, blocking transport and preventing children from going to school. Pleas to mend the roads have fallen on deaf ears, and villagers have had to repair them themselves. At the same time, new roads for the project are blocking existing waterways, causing flooding and destruction of rice fields," said Burma Campaign UK citing the Tavoy group.

The women's group said it fears that 12,000 people in six villages could be evicted once the rainy season ends. It said there had been no proper consultation or adequate compensation offered.

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Britain Preparing ‘Political’ Training for Burma Army

Posted: 01 Oct 2013 11:24 PM PDT

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron greets Burma President Thein Sein in Downing Street, central London, on July 15, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

Britain is finalizing the details of military assistance that will see 30 high-ranking officers in the Burma Army receive specially tailored training, including instruction on how to operate within the rule of law, the head of a UK training center said.

During an official visit to London by President Thein Sein in July, British Foreign Secretary William Hague said the country would begin engaging with the Burma Army. The aim of cooperation, Hague said at the time, was to try to foster accountability and respect for human rights in the Burmese military, which only handed power to a quasi-civilian government in 2011 but remains influential.

The 30 officers of the Burma Army, known as the Tatmadaw, are set to attend a course in January. The training is jointly run by Cranfield University and the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom, and will take place in Burma.

Laura Cleary, the head of the Centre of International Security and Resilience at Cranfield University, is in charge of the course.

"The request came from Aung San Suu Kyi for education to be delivered for the security forces within Burma. The decision was taken within the UK government to deliver this particular course," Cleary told the Irrawaddy.

The course, entitled "Managing Defence in the Wider Security Context," has been running since the early 2000s, she said. Since then more than 4,200 military personnel from 147 countries have received the training, which is run 12 times a year abroad and once a year in the UK.

"The target audience has been and will remain states that are post-conflict or post-authoritarian," Cleary said. "We are working with countries that are making that difficult transition to democracy and undergoing security sector reform."

The course for the Tatmadaw will be made up of two-weeks of bespoke training for the officers, taught through Burmese-speaking translators.

The course is designed for army decision makers, so is only open to officers of the rank of lieutenant colonel and brigadier or equivalent. The soldiers will be taught by a team of four consisting of academics and serving British Army officers.

The exact details of the course are yet to be finalized, Cleary said.

"We are currently in discussions with the Foreign Office and the Ministry of Defence to identify the appropriate topics," she said.

As well as the UK, The United States and Australia have also said they want to begin military assistance to Burma's military. Critics say the West's reengagement is coming too soon, and may provide legitimacy to Burma's military, which is still engaged in fighting armed ethnic groups.

Cleary told The Irrawaddy the British course would contain no offensive military content.

"The purpose of this engagement is to encourage the Burmese military to normalize their role within society to improve the respect for human rights and enhance the governance of those security forces," she said.

"It's not tactical. It's strategic, it's political. We are not teaching people how to fire a rifle or drive a tank. We are seeking to help them better understand when military force is appropriate and when it is absolutely not appropriate.

"We are looking at aspects of governance so we're looking at accountability, oversight, operating within what we would term the rule of law."

Cleary said the purpose of the course was to show the Burmese Army how they could improve rather than tell them what to do.

"My role as an academic is to encourage individuals to analyze what they are doing, identify where they are making mistakes and take their own decisions," she said.

"We will not succeed if we simply say you should do it this way. We have to couch the conversation in terms of: there is a better way of doing it; there is a better way of providing security."

Cleary said Britain's Foreign Office would be closely monitoring the course and that the training would be subject to the British Government's Overseas Security and Justice Assistance human rights guidance.

Providing all goes well, the British Government sees this as the first in a series of educational courses for the Burma Army.

"One two-week educational intervention is not going to change the world. Hopefully repeated engagement over a sustained period of time with different audiences within the society will effect change," Cleary said.

The military training is only one small part of Britain's aid plan for Burma.

"The British Government has a range of tools at its disposal through which it seeks to engage with various countries. No one tool will open the door in any country, it is a combination," Cleary said.

"There is a broader strategy for Burma and we are one element of implementation of that strategy."

A British military attaché will also start working at the embassy in Rangoon from this October to help with relations between the countries' military forces. Britain is also keen to get UK companies investing in Burma.

Mark Farmaner—the director of Burma Campaign UK, who disputed that Aung San Suu Kyi had advised Britain to provide the training—said it was useless trying to reform a military that has committed numerous abuses over years of military rule and in the ongoing conflicts with ethnic armed groups.

"The way to improve the Burmese Army is for soldiers to be jailed for committing human rights abuses, and for their commanders to be jailed when they order soldiers to commit them," he said.

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Obama’s Bold Trade Plan Faces Resistance on Asia Trip

Posted: 01 Oct 2013 11:15 PM PDT

S President Barack Obama, right, waves to reporters as he shakes hands with Vietnam's President Troung Tan Sang during a meeting in the Oval Office of the White House, in Washington on July 25, 2013. (Photo: Reuters / Yuri Gripas)

KUALA LUMPUR — Malaysia's former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim haven't agreed on much, if anything, in the 15 years since the latter was ousted from Mahathir's government and then jailed on sodomy and corruption charges.

But a US-led trade pact—the most ambitious since the demise of the Doha round of global talks—has succeeded in uniting the great rivals in condemnation of what they see as a US plot to impose its economic model on Asia.

Their rare unity is one measure of the struggle President Barack Obama faces in pushing forward his signature trade pact, a cornerstone of his plans to create more US jobs, during his sweep of Southeast Asian countries and summits next week.

Obama, who touts the deal by saying that 5,000 US jobs are created for each extra $1 billion in exports, will have a rare chance to push other leaders personally for breakthroughs at an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Indonesia, followed by an East Asia Summit in Brunei, and a visit to Malaysia.

But the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), by seeking unprecedented access to domestic markets, is proving highly sensitive in developing countries such as Malaysia and Vietnam, whose political systems could be shaken by intrusions in areas such as government procurement and state-owned enterprises.

Such sensitivities are increasing the risk of a watered-down deal as politicians succumb to demands for exemptions and opt-outs from pressure groups in countries as diverse economically as Australia, Brunei, Mexico, Singapore and Peru.

"The elimination of tariffs can kill some of our industries, especially those in the process of developing," said Nizam Mahshar, head of the Malay Economic Action Council, which is pressuring Malaysia's government not to cross 75 "red lines" in the TPP. "We are not convinced the TPP will provide what Malaysia needs."

The three-year-old talks, now involving 12 nations, are aimed at establishing a free-trade bloc that would stretch from Vietnam to Chile, encompassing 800 million people, about a third of world trade and nearly 40 percent of the global economy.

Proponents call it a "high-standard" agreement to eliminate tariffs and tackle an unprecedented range of non-tariff barriers that restrict growth.

For the United States, there is also strategic appeal, complementing its shift of diplomatic and military resources to Asia to tap the region's fast growth and balance the growing influence of China, which has not joined the pact.

To its opponents, such as Mahathir and a range of advocacy groups globally, the TPP represents an encroachment of US economic might that gives big corporations unprecedented powers to challenge national policies in the name of free trade.

More intrusive than other trade pacts, the TPP seeks to regulate sensitive areas such as government procurement, intellectual property and the role of state-owned enterprises as well as giving corporations more rights to sue governments.

Tough Sell in Developing Asia

Among the Malay council's concerns is that liberalizing state procurement rules would undermine Malaysia's long-standing affirmative action program to benefit majority ethnic Malays.

Former Finance Minister Anwar has called the TPP a secretive push for "modern-day American hegemony" while his nemesis Mahathir, a veteran opponent of globalization and US dominance, denounced it as a threat to Malaysia's independence.

Such opposition has put pressure on Prime Minister Najib Razak to reassure the public that the government, which says the TPP will boost by 10 percent the amount of trade covered by preferential access, will fight for its interests.

Najib's government announced in August it was initiating fresh studies on the impact of the TPP and it says it will not be bound by deadlines to conclude the talks, which negotiators had hoped to wrap up by the end of this year.

Malaysia launched a proposal in August to exempt tobacco control measures from the agreement, countering US wording that could allow companies to challenge public health campaigns against cigarettes. Opponents of the deal have also warned it would lead to higher medicine costs by limiting access to generic drugs under intellectual property rules.

In TPP nations such as Malaysia, Japan, and Vietnam, reform-minded leaders are seen as using the pact as external leverage to break down vested interests and force liberalization of protected, inefficient sectors.

Michael Froman, the US trade representative, last week played down concern that there were too many unresolved issues to wrap up the talks this year, saying much of the work on trade deals tends to get done "at the last minute."

"I think it's hard to judge from the outside whether or not there is too much work to be done," he said in Washington. "We see a path forward. There's a lot of momentum."

'Dragon in the Room'

Vietnam's Communist leadership wants to join the TPP "with a "vengeance," said Vietnam expert Carl Thayer, seeing it as a way to steal a march on China and further internationalize an economy that has been paralyzed by a bloated state sector.

Vietnam had a trade surplus of just less than $15 billion with the United States last year, fueled largely by its garment and seafood exports, compared with a yawning deficit of nearly $17 billion with northern neighbor China.

"The TPP overall has serious costs for Vietnam, but look at the market it is gaining access to and look at the trade deficit with China," said Thayer, emeritus professor at the Australian Defense Force Academy in Canberra.

Still, Vietnam would "negotiate down to the last man, trying to get concessions, delay, et cetera," he added.

Hanoi may not see enough benefits from the deal—which would cut tariffs on textiles to zero in four years from 17.5 percent now—to agree to far-reaching reforms of its domestic economies, such as its huge, debt-laden state-owned enterprises.

Vietnamese trade officials acknowledge that a range of companies, including exporters who depend on state subsidies, and inefficient domestic-focused firms, would suffer from the TPP.

One stumbling block is the US insistence on "yarn-forward" origin rules for the textile sector, meaning that all materials must be sourced locally or in a fellow TPP country to qualify for duty-free access. Vietnam mainly sources its fabrics and other inputs from China.

Nguyen Xuan Duong, the director of Hung Yen Garment Corporation near Hanoi, which has 12,000 workers, hailed the TPP as a "great opportunity" but said the industry would need long-term government support to wean itself off Chinese imports.

"Local companies just want short-term profit, no one wants to invest in a sub-material factory which only gives profit after five to seven years," said Duong, whose firm exported apparel worth $200 million last year, 70 percent to the United States.

That is one example of how the exclusion of Asia's largest economy from the talks could have a profound impact on TPP countries' ties with China. Chinese state media have criticized the pact as an attempt to contain China's economic rise, although Beijing has since said it is studying joining the deal.

"China is the dragon in the room," said Adrian Hearn, coordinator of international relations at the University of Sydney China Studies Center.

"Most TPP countries have become increasingly reliant—in some cases dependent—on Chinese markets and investment. The TPP's provisions on state-owned enterprises will complicate the ability of its members to accept investment from Chinese companies."

The post Obama's Bold Trade Plan Faces Resistance on Asia Trip appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Floods Kill 23 in Thailand, 30 in Cambodia, as More Storms Loom

Posted: 01 Oct 2013 11:10 PM PDT

People wade through a flooded street at Kabin Buri district in Prachin Buri Sept. 29, 2013. More than 600,000 Thais have been affected by flooding since July and more than a quarter of Thailand's provinces have been inundated, prompting officials to issue landslide warnings and begin evacuation measures on Sept. 23. (Photo: Reuters)

BANGKOK / PHNOM PENH — Thai authorities said Tuesday that floods have killed more than 20 people and affected areas across the country over the past two weeks, though experts say there is little risk of a repeat of the devastation that occurred during record floods two years ago.

Thirty-two out of 77 provinces have experienced flooding since mid-September and 23 people have been killed, the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department said in a report, adding that 25 provinces still have flooding.

It said more than 2.8 million people were affected by the floodwaters and 15,254 had been evacuated from their homes.

Deputy Prime Minister Plodprasop Suraswadi said Thailand was not at risk from the remnants of Tropical Storm Wutip, which reached the northeast on Tuesday. However, he said the country should be ready for other storms.

In 2011, Thailand suffered its worst flooding in half a century. More than 800 people were killed and 6 million hectares (14.8 million acres) of agricultural, industrial and residential lands were devastated. Many of the country's industrial estates, which export electronic parts, auto parts and hard disk drives, were swamped, as were large parts of Bangkok.

Authorities have downplayed concerns of a repeat.

"Thanks to the dredging of the canals and the weather, at this point there is nothing to panic about," Bangkok Gov. Sukhumbhand Paribatra tweeted Monday night. "Currently the water level in the Chao Phraya River is still low, so there's nothing to worry."

Experts also say it is unlikely the capital will see major flooding this year.

"It is not worrisome as the situation is very different from 2011," said Seree Supratid, the director of a climate and disaster center at Bangkok's Rangsit University.

In Cambodia, at least 30 people have died in recent floods caused by heavy rains and the Mekong River overflowing its banks, a disaster relief official said Monday.

Keo Vy of Cambodia's disaster management committee the floods have also forced more than 9,000 families to flee their homes and destroyed nearly 100,000 hectares (247,000 acres) of rice fields.

He added that nearly 67,000 houses were damaged or submerged, as well as 513 schools, 300 Buddhist pagodas and 25 health centers. Nine of the country's 24 provinces have been affected so far, he said.

Four people died Sunday night when their car drove into a flooded pond in the eastern province of Prey Veng, police said.

The government warned that the rains will continue as Typhoon Wutip headed toward neighboring Vietnam late Monday.

In central Vietnam, people repaired homes and dragged away trees that were uprooted when Wutip slammed into the coastline. Two men were killed when a radio station antenna tower fell on them, Vietnam’s disaster agency said. Another man was killed when a wall collapsed. Close to 100,000 homes were damaged.

Chinese authorities say Wutip, which means butterfly in Cantonese, sank three Chinese fishing vessels Sunday in the South China Sea.

On Monday, 14 people were rescued, leaving 58 still believed to be missing, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. It said 22 boats and four airplanes were combing the area for survivors.

Wutip was the strongest storm to hit Vietnam this year. It had weakened from a typhoon by the time it hit land with sustained winds of 117 kilometers (73 miles) per hour, Vietnam’s weather center said.

The most powerful Asian storm this year was Typhoon Usagi, which caused at least 33 deaths in the Philippines and China in September.

The post Floods Kill 23 in Thailand, 30 in Cambodia, as More Storms Loom appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Growth in Developing Asia Slowing, But Robust, Says ADB

Posted: 01 Oct 2013 10:44 PM PDT

A construction site for a new highway at Tanjung Priok port in Jakarta March 28, 2013. Indonesia is seeking US $9 billion from European investors to upgrade its decrepit infrastructure. (Photo: Reuters)

MANILA — Asian economies can ride out the storm when the Federal Reserve finally begins ending years of easy money, with even those most at risk, India and Indonesia, holding enough currency reserves for rough times ahead, according to the Asian Development Bank.

Updating forecasts for 2013 and 2014, the Manila-based lender said on Wednesday that growth in developing Asia is likely to be slower than it thought three months ago, when it last revised forecasts to an annual outlook released in April.

It now reckons the region, grouping 45 countries in Asia-Pacific, will grow 6.0 percent in 2013 and 6.2 percent in 2014, little changed from last year’s growth of 6.1 percent.

Between May and August, emerging markets were gripped by a sell-off after the Fed signaled that it would taper its bond-buying stimulus once the U.S. economy improved.

The sudden capital outflows caused some alarm, but ADB said worries over potential for a regional meltdown were misplaced, and markets are now treading water, waiting for the Fed to act.

"Fears of a repeat of the 1997 Asian financial crisis are unwarranted," ADB said in a statement. "The region is now in a stronger position to weather the storm, with many economies running current account surpluses and holding large foreign reserve stockpiles."

The bank said developing Asia’s current account surplus is expected to narrow to 1.6 percent of GDP in both 2013 and 2014 from 1.8 percent last year.

Whereas high external deficits resulted in India and Indonesia suffering far sharper falls in their currencies during the emerging markets’ sell-off, ADB took comfort in their levels of reserves.

"Widening current account deficits have long made both economies more susceptible to shifts in market sentiment, as have fiscal deficits in India. Fortunately, both have sufficient foreign exchange reserves, enough as of August to cover imports to India for 7 months and to Indonesia for 5 months," ADB said.

Need for Reform

China is expected to grow 7.6 percent and 7.4 percent this year and the next, ADB said, trimming its July forecasts of 7.7 percent and 7.5 percent respectively.

The slowdown in the world’s second biggest economy may usher in a more sustainable growth path as Chinese authorities seek a balanced development strategy away from its previous export- and investment-led growth model, the bank said.

ADB made significant downward revisions to 2013 and 2014 growth forecasts for India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.

India is expected to expand 4.7 percent and 5.7 percent this year and the next, sharply lower than previous forecasts of 5.8 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, with growth hampered by weak industry, investment and external demand and delays in structural reforms.

The Philippines, the only country in East and Southeast Asia whose growth forecast was revised up, is expected to grow 7 percent this year against an April forecast of 6 percent. The country has kept pace with China to become one of the two fastest growing nations in the region this year.

ADB also said inflation in Asia is likely to remain subdued this year and next, although some countries are likely to see mounting price pressures. Indonesia will see a sharp acceleration in inflation as it scales back fuel subsidies, the bank said.

ADB said the past few months’ market volatility highlighted a need for structural reform to sustain growth in the region, including governance reforms that will ensure more inclusive growth.

The bank said empowering citizens, engaging local governments and the private sector, and expanding the use of information and communications technology are among reforms needed to promote inclusive growth. It also said anti-corruption efforts should be intensified and regulatory and legal frameworks strengthened.

"Inflows of cheap foreign capital into Asia may have allowed some countries to put governance reforms on the back burner," ADB said. "But recent financial market volatility and a pullback in economic activity have added fresh urgency to long-term structural action which can ensure development gains are not lost, and future growth benefits all."

The post Growth in Developing Asia Slowing, But Robust, Says ADB appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.
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