The Irrawaddy Magazine

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• Burma Govt Plans 30,000 New Affordable Homes in Rangoon
• Concern Grows Over Degradation of Irrawaddy River Basin
• A Cold, Tired Life for Kachin Families at Border Post 6
• Poll Finds Burmese Public Linking Citizenship to Buddhism
• Workers in Pipeline Clash Were Forced to Confess: Lawyer
• Sunny Days for Pathein’s Parasol Industry
• Water Shortages Growing in Burma: Activist
• Mega-dams Economically Unviable: Oxford Report
• Asia-Pacific Failing to Save Forests, Grassland Loss
• Front Companies, Embassies Mask North Korean Weapons Trade: UN
• Malaysia Air Force Chief Denies Saying Lost Plane Tracked to West

Burma Govt Plans 30,000 New Affordable Homes in Rangoon Posted: 12 Mar 2014 04:48 AM PDT Affordable housing flats built by the Ministry of Construction's Department of Human Settlement and Housing Development in Rangoon's Mingalar Taung Nyunt Township. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — The Burma government's housing department is planning to build 30,000 new low-cost homes in townships on the outskirts of the country's largest city, an official said Wednesday. Moe Thida, assistant director of the planning division at the Department of Human Settlement and Housing Development—part of the Ministry of Construction—said the department was putting in place ambitious building plans for the 2015-16 fiscal year. Speaking to The Irrawaddy at this week's Construction Summit, at Rangoon's Parkroyal Hotel, she said a total of 30,000 low-cost housing units would be built in Hlaing Tharyar, Shwe Pyi Tha, North Dagon and South Dagon townships. "For the prices of the low-cost housing, we will have to consider how much we can cut the prices. Recently, construction materials and labor costs are significantly increasing. Even excluding the cost of the land, to build one housing unit now costs between 10 million and 12 million kyat [US$10,000-$12,000]," she said. She said the department had built 55,000 low-cost housing units in Rangoon in the 20 years up to 2010. However, the government does not own much land in the central commercial areas of the city, so most of the housing developments are on the city's edges. "We're building infrastructure in low-cost housing areas, such as the outskirts of Rangoon," she said. In recent years, land prices Rangoon have risen to levels out of reach for most people. In commercial areas around the city's downtown, land can fetch as much as $1,500 per square meter. In an attempt to restrict the growth in land prices, the Rangoon divisional government in October introduced fixed tax rates on the sale of property in the city. Prices have since stopped rising—mainly because high-value transactions have all but dried up—but rental rates in the former capital are still going up. Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC), the administrative body of Rangoon city, is also planning to build more low-cost housing on the outskirts to help balance supply and demand. "The best way to reduce the property prices in Rangoon is to implement many housing projects here," Toe Aung, deputy head of YCDC's urban planning department told The Irrawaddy last year, pointing to three YCDC projects in North Dagon and South Dagon. In order to own government-built affordable housing, residents must complete an arduous application process with the respective housing department, and hope to be selected in a lottery. Privately built affordable homes are also an option, but developers say they cannot find land on which to build. Ko Ko Htwe, the chairman of Taw Win construction, which has built two low-cost housing developments in Thamine and Insein townships, said land prices were stifling much-needed home building. He called for the government to allow private developers to build low-cost housing on state-owned land in Rangoon. "If the government asked me to build 20,000 units right now, I could do it, because I already have a system for building low-cost housing. With five more people like me, we could create a lively market," he said. "However, I am still thinking about whether to build another low-cost housing project in Rangoon. I can't find land at a reasonable price." Ko Ko Htwe said he had built some 3,300 low-cost housing units in Rangoon in the past, at a cost of 16.5 million kyat per unit, or about $16,500. With the higher land prices, he said, it would now cost close to 70 million kyat per unit. "The trouble is we can't control the prices once we've sold the properties. Sometimes it's the consumers themselves who are playing the market," he said. The post Burma Govt Plans 30,000 New Affordable Homes in Rangoon appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Concern Grows Over Degradation of Irrawaddy River Basin Posted: 12 Mar 2014 04:40 AM PDT The confluence of the Maykha and Malikha rivers, where the Irrawaddy River begins, is the site of the controversial Myitsone Dam project that was suspended in 2011 after months of protests. (Photo: The Irrawaddy) MANDALAY— Burmese environmentalists and experts from the Mekong region are speaking out against degradation to watershed areas of the Irrawaddy River which they say has threatened the future of the river and its surrounding population. At a public conference in Mandalay on Tuesday, they said damage to areas along the river had become more severe in recent years. "Watershed areas of the upper segment of the Irrawaddy River have been destroyed due to the deforestation that results from wood production and mining. The main victims are the river and the people who live alongside it," said Maung Maung Oo, a member of the Mandalay-based environmental group Green Activities. Other environmentalists said mining in Kachin State and Sagaing Division had led to erosion along the riverbed, especially in Mandalay and Magwe divisions. The resulting sandbanks in the river have led to shallow water levels in the early summer. "People living along the riverbank face a scarcity of clean water. In the monsoon season, an extreme rise in water levels causes flooding," Maung Maung Oo said. Researchers at the conference said gold miners and factories were illegally using mercury and discharging waste into the river, killing fish and affecting the livelihoods of fishermen. To boost their catch, some fishermen have turned to electrical shockers, which have in turned harmed Irrawaddy dolphins, an endangered species. "Some fishermen tap on their boats to call Irrawaddy dolphins, and once a school of fish forms they use their electric shockers to get all the fish. The dolphins cannot escape from the shock, and this is how we discovered one dead dolphin in late 2013," said Su Hlaing Myint, an independent researcher on Irrawaddy dolphins who has collaborated with Green Activities. "We have not been able to confirm how many dolphins have been killed. But when we went up to the Kyauk Myaung area [of Sagaing], we found only 24 dolphins. We also saw the flesh of dolphins being dried in the sun, to produce oil," she added. The oil is reportedly in high demand at Chinese markets for medicinal purposes. "I'm afraid if there is a flood of Chinese workers for various projects, such as the Myitsone Dam, they will destroy our dolphins and many endangered species," she said. The Mytisone Dam project in Kachin State was suspended by President Thein Sein in 2011 due to opposition by local people. The hydropower project is a joint venture by the state-owned China Power Investment Corporation (CPI), the Burma government and Burmese conglomerate Asia World. It will produce electricity mainly for China. Environmentalists say the project could lead to environmental degradation not only in the Myitsone area, but also in the upper region along the Maykha and Malikha rivers, where the Irrawaddy River begins. They also worry about consequences for the delta region, where most of the country's rice is produced. "The Irrawaddy is a main artery of the country. Whether there is a dam or not, the destruction of the river is terrible. We need to save it immediately," said U Ohn, vice president of the Rangoon-based Forest Resource Environment Development and Conservation Association (FREDA). "There's no doubt that if there's a big dam up there, the situation will worsen," he added. More than 50 environment activists, researchers and volunteers across the country plan to gather on March 14, the International Day of Action for Rivers, to organize an awareness campaign. They will meet at Tan Phae village, Kachin State, at the confluence of the Maykha and Malikha rivers. Other participants at the conference in Mandalay were from the Mekong Energy and Ecology Network, the Mandalay-based network Green Future network, and the Rangoon-based Promotion of Indigenous and Nature Together (POINT). The post Concern Grows Over Degradation of Irrawaddy River Basin appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

A Cold, Tired Life for Kachin Families at Border Post 6 Posted: 12 Mar 2014 03:38 AM PDT In a one-room home, siblings sit around a kitchen fire for warmth early in the morning at the Border Post 6 camp. (Photo: Sai Zaw / The Irrawaddy) KACHIN STATE — Nine thousand feet above sea level, in the Himalayan foothills along the Burma-Chinese border, hundreds of ethnic Kachin people live in makeshift shelters at a camp known as Border Post 6, where the weather, they say, is always cold. This camp is one of about 22 camps that were established in 2011, when fighting resumed between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Burma Army. Due to its remote location in KIA territory, it has never been visited by a foreign aid convoy and in many ways remains cut off from the rest of Kachin State. Government troops stand guard nearby, so most visitors arrive from the Chinese side of the border, on a road built to transport wood into Yunnan Province from Burma. The nearest Chinese village is two hours away by car, in Yingjiang district. "It's not comfortable here," says Ja Taung, a 52-year old with six children. "It's freezing in the rainy season. Even pigs die here due to the cold." About 600 people live in makeshift homes which remain dark throughout the day. They lack windows, which would let in the chill. Families huddle around a fire inside, which they use to cook and keep warm, despite the lack of ventilation. "We can't breathe well with the smoke in the winter. We have to melt snow for water," the mother adds. "We want to go home but do not dare leave. There may be land mines on the road." She says she struggles to grow vegetables, compared with those who live at IDP camps near Laiza town, where the weather is warmer. A local NGO helps her and others at Border Post 6 to buy produce for curry, with each person receiving 6,000 kyats (US$6) per month, and some families supplement their diets by growing mustard leaves when the weather allows. The camp also receives support from international donors, including the UN refugee agency (UNHCR). During a visit in March, several families interviewed by The Irrawaddy complained about harsh living conditions in the inhospitable climate. The skin on most of the children's cheeks had become pink and chapped from the constant exposure to cold. When they fled from their homes in Kachin State, their education was interrupted. A primary school has been set up at the camp, with adult residents volunteering to teach. The camp also has a medical clinic with midwives but no doctors, with some medicine supplied by outside donors. Many of the families find relief through religion. Most are Christian, like the majority of Kachin people, and they attend services on Sunday. Children gather to pray early in the morning, while the elders come together some hours later for prayer and song. Dauk Taung, a 41-year-old mother of seven, says her husband went to China to seek employment. She abandoned her village in Kachin State two years ago when she was pregnant. "I really, really want to go home," she says. "I have no idea how my home is now." Marang Kawnt, a grandmother who previously lived at Sai Awng camp, also along the border, traveled to Border Post 6 to meet her daughter and family. She remembers when fighting first broke out between the KIA and the Burma Army decades ago, as well as the ceasefire in 1994 and the resumption of hostilities in 2011. "My life started with war," the 65-year-old says, "and now it will end with war." The post A Cold, Tired Life for Kachin Families at Border Post 6 appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Poll Finds Burmese Public Linking Citizenship to Buddhism Posted: 12 Mar 2014 03:11 AM PDT An Arakanese woman and children shelter at a Sittwe monastery in June 2012, after being displaced from their homes during Buddhist-Muslim clashes in Arakan State. (Photo: Simon Roughneen / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — A new survey of mostly middle-class Burmese suggests that many of the country's citizens "seem to think that in order to be Myanmar one has to also be Buddhist." The report, Citizenship in Myanmar: Contemporary Debates and Challenges in Light of the Reform Process, was published by Myanmar Egress, a Rangoon think-tank that has advised Burma's government in the past. The report is based on a survey of just over 2,000 Burmese spread across the country, polling ethnic minority regions as well as seeking the views of Rohingya, a Muslim minority numbering around one million people, most of whom live in western Arakan State and are denied Burmese citizenship. The findings suggested that "a very large number of respondents within the Buddhist ethnic groups—i.e. not only Bamar respondents, equate citizenship with religion." "Myanmar is Buddhist and patriotic," said one of those surveyed in the report, identified as "Bamar, Buddhist." "[Myanmar is] 'The person who is Buddhist,'" said another respondent, listed as "Rohingya, Muslim." The findings come amid ongoing ethnic and religious tensions in Burma, which is scheduled to hold its first census in over three decades at the end of March and in which respondents will be asked to denote their religion as well as ethnicity. For now, however, Burma's demographics are guesswork, with the country's population estimated at between 48-60 million people, of which around 90 percent are thought to be Buddhist and around 60 percent Burman (also known as Bamar), the ethnic majority from which the country's name is derived. Various groups have warned that the upcoming census could inflame religious divides, and reflecting on their citizenship survey findings, the Myanmar Egress report's authors suggested that the Burmese government ensure that citizenship and religion be kept separate under Burmese law. Burma's 2008 Constitution forbids "the abuse of religion for political purposes," but also recognizes the "special position of Buddhism as the faith professed by the great majority of the citizens of the Union." The government and various political parties are pushing for laws advocating "protection of race and religion," in proposed legislation that would further elevate Buddhism above Burma's other established faiths. Non-Buddhist men could be required to convert to Buddhism or face 10 years in prison if they want to marry a Buddhist woman. Buddhist women, in turn, would be required to seek permission from their parents and local authorities to marry a man of a different faith. The proposals have the backing of a petition signed by 1.3 million Burmese and are being pushed by the "969" Buddhist-supremacist movement. The 969 leader U Wirathu, a Buddhist monk, has been accused of fomenting recent anti-Muslim violence in Arakan State and elsewhere in Burma. "This religious nationalism, if not dealt with carefully, could serve to alienate other groups with a different religious identity," cautioned Myanmar Egress, referring to the linking of Buddhism and citizenship by many respondents in the new report. The survey was carried out between February 2012 and June 2013 and focused on educated middle and lower-middle classes who, Myanmar Egress said, "were expected to be able to articulate their views with regard to the changing nature of the state." Reflecting on changing times since a reform-inclined government took office in 2011, the report found a growing level of political interest among Burmese, with between 55 percent and 65 percent of respondents from most ethnic groups saying they were interested in politics. Ethnic Mon respondents were the exception, with only 28 percent saying they were interested in politics. "There has been so much active avoidance of politics over decades that today political literacy is very low—even in urban centers and amongst the middle classes. People were very aware of politics but they saw it as dangerous," the report said, referring to Burma's five decades of military rule. The post Poll Finds Burmese Public Linking Citizenship to Buddhism appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Workers in Pipeline Clash Were Forced to Confess: Lawyer Posted: 12 Mar 2014 02:59 AM PDT A map shows the Burmese-Chinese oil pipeline, which runs alongside the Shwe Gas Pipeline in Arakan State. (Photo: Irrawaddy) Burmese workers arrested for arson after clashes on a Chinese-backed oil pipeline project in Arakan State claim they were beaten by police and forced to confess to the charges, their lawyer has claimed. Seventeen ethnic Chin men working on the oil pipeline in Ann Township have been detained since a fire broke out at a warehouse following a dispute between local and Chinese workers.  There was reportedly fighting between the workers during the incident, but only the Chin men were detained. Their trial began on Monday at the Ann Township Court, about 22 miles (35 kilometers) from the work camp where the incident took place. The plaintiff in the case is the local director of the state-run Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprises (MOGE)—which with the China National Petroleum Company is building the oil pipeline connecting Kyaukphyu on the Arakan coast with China's Yunnan Province. The director claims about 160 million kyat, or more than US$160,000, of damage was done by the fire. Aung Thein, an advocate based in Rangoon who is representing the accused together with three local lawyers, said the director, Myo Win Htut, told the court that the Chin workers had admitted to the arson. "When the plaintiff gave answers at the court, he said the 17 workers had confessed that they committed those actions," the lawyer said. "I asked the workers at the same time whether it was true. The workers answered in the courtroom that they were beaten and forced to say that when the police took statements from them." Aung Thein said the 17 accused were being charged with three crimes—trespassing, mischief by setting fire to a building and abetting. The ethnic Chin workers are from Ngaphe village in Magwe Division and are aged between 17 and 32 years old, he said. They were part of a staff of about 200 workers at the work camp in Ann. About one third of the workers were Chinese, and local residents report that there was antagonism between the Chinese and local workers prior to the clash. The dispute allegedly started when liquid—either waste water or urine, depending on the version of events—was poured from the upper floor of a residential block, in which Chinese workers were staying upstairs and Chin workers below. Aung Thein said the fact the Chin workers live on the site made the trespass charge laughable. But he said that since the plaintiff in the case was a MOGE official—as opposed to the police, who usually act as the plaintiff in criminal cases—the court was likely to rule against the workers. Thwe Thwe Soe, an Ann resident, told The Irrawaddy that she was worried innocent people may be wrongly convicted over the incident. "All of the 17 might not have been involved in the incident," she said. "It is unfair that none of the Chinese workers were detained." The post Workers in Pipeline Clash Were Forced to Confess: Lawyer appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Sunny Days for Pathein’s Parasol Industry Posted: 12 Mar 2014 12:10 AM PDT A woman works on a 'Pathein parasol' in Pathein, Irrawaddy Division. (Photo: Kyaw Hsu Mon / The Irrawaddy) PATHEIN, Irrawaddy Division — The hot season has arrived in Burma, and while many are sweating it out as a result, it's good news for makers of the famed Patheinhtee (Pathein parasol), who are reaping the benefits of high demand from shade-seekers amid the tropical heat. The parasols of Pathein, the capital city of Irrawaddy Division, are an internationally recognized part of Burma's iconography. It is an industry, made up primarily of small-scale workshops, that has been turning out the colorful creations for more than 100 years. Thein Oo, owner of the Nay Nat Thar Pathein Htee workshop in Pathein, said demand this summer, as in years past, has risen significantly. At his home industry, employees can produce 250 parasols per day, and the enterprise has been selling out its stock nearly every day as temperatures in Burma have climbed. Prior to the summer high season, his workers produced less than 200 parasols per day. "We're distributing to all cities nationwide, especially in Mandalay, Pegu and Moulmein," he told The Irrawaddy. Using a division of labor process, each step in the production of Pathein parasols is assigned to an individual. Most parts, except for the wooden finials that are set atop the parasols' canopies, are handmade. Thein Oo said that in the past, the parasols' canopies were made from paper, but over the years the Pathein craftsmen have flexed their creative muscles, and now produce parasols with canopies of cotton, silk and satin as well, in attractive floral-pattern designs. "In the past, we used a paper that was made in Shan State. Now, we've created new silk and cotton canopies. We dye them to be colorful and then glue them to make them stronger and more attractive to customers," he said. These re-envisioned Pathein parasols have helped fuel sales among Burmese buyers, who are largely women. Pathein parasols are also highly sought by the growing number foreign visitors to Burma, who purchase the distinctive creations as souvenirs, or for interior decoration as wall hangings or lampshades. In the production process, the parasol's main shaft is made of a wood known as ma u shwe war. The ribs and stretchers are made from a type of bamboo called taragu, which grows around Pathein city. "All parts of the parasol are from around the Pathein area, except silk and cotton canopies, which are bought from Yangon," Thein Oo said. "There are three sizes we're producing right now: The biggest one is for garden use, and two [smaller] sizes are for ladies' use," he said. Thein Oo's business employs 15 workers, some of whom operate rudimentary machinery used for some of the woodwork. Mg Kyi, a craftsman in the workshop, told The Irrawaddy that he earned a meager 8 kyats (less than 1 US cent) for each wooden finial that he produces. In an average day, Mg Kyi makes about 100 finials. On good days, he is able to churn out more than 100. Workers bind the main shaft, ribs and stretchers together, and stretch across this frame the parasol's canopy. After attaching the canopy to the wooden frame, the parasol undergoes strength testing to ensure its durability. "We're distributing at 2,000 kyats [US$2] for a large ladies' use parasol as a wholesale price, but in retail shops, prices are almost double," Thein Oo said. The production cost of a parasol is 1,000 to 1,200 kyats, depending on the size. In the last steps, the cloth is dyed and coated with tayae (natural fruit juices) to help the canopy maintain its vibrant coloring. Then, workers varnish and polish the wood before leaving the parasols to dry in the sun. The painting of designs on the cloth serves as the final touch on a Pathein parasol. Though Pathein parasols have traditionally been known for their practical purpose and as a fashion accessory, they are increasingly deployed to serve decorative purposes in home interiors, gardens, hotels and restaurants. The post Sunny Days for Pathein's Parasol Industry appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Water Shortages Growing in Burma: Activist Posted: 11 Mar 2014 11:53 PM PDT A woman walks in a dried field at Rangoon's Dala Township. (Photo: Reuters) RANGOON— Burma has lost 40 days from its annual monsoon in the past 35 years, leading to severe shortages of water both for consumption and agriculture—but the government has yet to formulate a policy on how to tackle climate change, activists charged Monday. "We are down from 145 rainy days to 105 days a year. That decrease in rainy days and rainfall has huge implications for the agricultural sector, which involves 70 percent of people this country," Myint Zaw, an award-winning environmental activist, said on the opening day of an international media conference organized by the Hawaii-based East West Center. Both the media and policy makers have paid little attention to the larger context of climate change in the changing water and weather situation in Burma, he added. That is despite the huge implications for Burma's democratic transition and sustainable development, particularly as climate impacts often disproportionately affect the rural poor. Climate change "doesn't seem to be a priority issue for the government as yet," Myint Zaw told Thomson Reuters Foundation. "They're preoccupied with achieving economic progress, but if you are unable to adapt to the changing climate, regardless of however hard you try, poverty eradication is going to be very difficult. That's for sure," he added. Aung Myint, general secretary of the Renewable Energy Association Myanmar (REAM), agreed. "We now have 132 dams. In 2013, we noticed the water in these dams was only 25 percent [of capacity]. This is the sign of climate change, of deterioration of the watersheds," he said. As a result of low water levels, the dams were unable to operate properly for either agriculture or electricity production, he said. Despite this, yet more dams are being planned along Burma's waterways, something activists warn could lead to the further degradation of the country's rivers. Growth First, Clean Up Later? Burma is a resource-rich, cash-poor country the size of France and England combined. After suffering half a century of brutal military rule, it embarked on democratic reforms after a quasi-civilian government took power in March 2011. The country has always relied on the exploitation of its natural resources for income and now that Western sanctions have been suspended or lifted in response to reforms, Burma is looking to attract big money from eager foreign investors. It already sells gas and hydropower to energy-starved neighbors such as Thailand and China while only one out of four Burmese has access to the grid. In rural areas, the number of people with access to grid energy drops to one in six, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said. Activists like Aung Myint and Myint Zaw are concerned that infrastructure projects such as dams are being planned with little involvement of local communities and scant concern for the environment. In September 2011, President Thein Sein suspended the controversial planned US$3.6 billion, Chinese-led Myitsone dam following a public outcry. About 90 percent of the electricity generated from the project was expected to go to China. Myint Zaw said the state-owned Chinese Power Investment Company is now renewing its push to resume the environmentally destructive dam. Aung Myint said the answer to electrify Burma is not big dams but to upgrade and commercialize village electrification systems that are already available. These use renewable energy resources such as biomass, solar and micro-hydro, he said. "The government is only concerned with expanding the grid which is going to be very expensive and environmentally damaging," he told Thomson Reuters Foundation. Myint Zaw asked, "We need investment and to improve our infrastructure … but are we able to [endure] the problems faced by other countries because of their 'Growth first, clean up later' approach?" The post Water Shortages Growing in Burma: Activist appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Mega-dams Economically Unviable: Oxford Report Posted: 11 Mar 2014 11:43 PM PDT Construction going ahead at the Myitsone Dam in 2010 before President Thein Sein ordered a suspension on the project. (Photo: The Irrawaddy) LONDON — Most large-scale dam projects do more economic harm than good due to poor or dishonest planning—and their skyrocketing costs could play a role in crippling the fragile economies of some developing countries, a study by Oxford University's Saïd Business School charges. By the time it is finished, the Belo Monte Dam being built in Brazil's Amazon will cost $27.4 billion, and China's Three Gorges Dam is set to cost the Asian superpower $26 billion over the next 10 years, the study predicted. In Pakistan, building the Tarbela Dam boosted the country's external debt by 23 percent between 1968 and 1984, it said. But Richard Taylor, executive director of the International Hydropower Association, said he disagreed with many of the report's findings, calling its central claim "complete nonsense." Countries around the world, from Laos to Ethiopia, are pushing ahead with plans for mega-dam projects, after a 10-year hiatus in which such projects were seen as poor choices for solving problems and funding largely disappeared. In part, the surge in dam building is designed to help produce "green" hydropower to meet growing energy demand and avoid boosting climate-changing emissions from growth in the use of fossil fuel energy plants. As climate change brings more irregular rainfall, dams in some regions also are seen as a way of storing water, controlling water flows and managing droughts and floods. Taylor said four out of every five dams in the world are today used primarily for water management, with many also providing energy to nearby communities. But the benefits of these projects are a matter of some debate. The Oxford report claims that the hard-to-measure results produced by big dams rarely make up for big costs and long timelines. For the report, a group of researchers at Saïd Business School evaluated the viability of modern mega-dam projects. Led by Bent Flyvbjerg, a leading expert on megaprojects and economic decision-making, they studied 245 dams built between 1937 and 2007 for an article in the journal Energy Policy. What they found is that in most situations, large hydropower dams are likely to be too expensive and take too long to build to deliver a "positive, risk-adjusted return." This is something dam project planners should be able to predict if they compared their plans with historical records of dam construction, according to Flyvbjerg. "Basically, what planners of dams today do not do is to benchmark their plans against the actual outcomes of already completed dams," he said.  If they did, they would see that large dams almost always overrun their projected costs and schedules, sometimes by considerable amounts, he said. An example is Brazil's controversial Belo Monte dam, which was initially given a $14.4 billion price tag but is currently projected to cost $27.4 billion by the time it is finished. Dam planners' projected budgets have not gotten any more accurate in the last 80 years, the report said – something Flyvbjerg called a "surprising result." "You would expect professionals in the field to improve their predictions. Our data go back 80 years for dams and 70 years for transport projects, and show very clearly no improvement," he said. Taylor, the hydropower association executive director, said that he is certain predictions have in fact gotten better. "The scope of expectation around project development, the knowledge and understanding that exists today, is way in advance of what it was in the last century, where a lot of this data was taken from," he said. "It would be really erroneous to imply that no learning has taken place." 'Fools and Liars' Where and how do project planners go wrong, as they supposedly have been doing since the 1930s? According to the study, they make two main errors in their predictions: they either succumb to over-optimism, which Flyvbjerg says is a natural human tendency, or they deliberately and strategically misrepresent their project in order to gain approval or funding. There is "strong evidence that misplaced political incentives and agency problems lead to flawed decision-making," the report said. The dual problems of "delusion" and "deception" often complement and exacerbate each other, the report said. In a press release issued by the authors, Flyvbjerg said that the two categories of inaccurate predictors can be divided into "fools" and "liars." "Fools are the reckless optimists who see the future with rose-tinted glasses," he said. "These forecasting fools ignore hard facts and uncertainty, betting the family silver on gambles with very low probability of success. Liars deliberately mislead the public for private gain, fiscal or political, by painting overly-positive prospects of an investment, just to get it going." Taylor, of the dam industry, said that he found that implication "incredibly offensive," and cited the report as making a common mistake about evaluating project planners' estimations. "In their data analysis, they've assumed that the construction engineers' estimate for construction is the project cost. It's not," he said. According to Taylor, the project cost includes consideration of all associated programs, including social programs and environmental management. "To look at the total cost of the project at the end of the process and compare the difference is not comparing apples with apples," he said. Smaller Is Better? The Oxford report suggests that governments and companies look into smaller, more flexible projects to replace the role of mega-dams in supplying what Flyvbjerg called a "power-hungry world." He said that projects like those in Norway, which feature small dams or turbines in tunnels, can be much more efficient and, importantly, deliver needed energy much more quickly compared to mega-dam projects which can take decades to complete. Large dam projects also often lead to displacement of communities, and can provoke protests, as has happened with indigenous communities in Brazil who will lose some of their territory to the Belo Monte dam. Taylor, however, said there is no direct correlation between the scale of dam projects and sustainability, and said that a "concentrated, centralised solution" is often the most efficient way to deliver energy. In the year 2000, the World Commission on Dams released a comprehensive 350-page report about the role of dams around the world, highlighting suggestions for creating more efficient hydropower projects. The damaging report caused a long lull in mega-dam building. However, that trend has turned around recently and construction has picked up again. Flyvbjerg said that he hopes his team's work can have the same effect as the World Commission on Dams report did almost 15 years ago. "We wanted to see, is there any new evidence that would actually justify this re-emergence of the large number of large-scale dams being constructed around the world? What we find is that there is no evidence to support doing that. The evidence shows the exact opposite, just as we saw 20 years ago," he said. "We do hope that things can change; we don't take it as a given that mega-dams have to continue, and we do hope that our study may help change things for the better." Peter Bosshard, the policy director of a U.S.-based organization called International Rivers, said that the report, which he referred to as the "most thorough independent evaluation of large dams ever," is a "damning indictment" of the dam building sector. "Even after following large dam projects for the past 20 years, I was stunned by its findings," he said. "Their evaluation also refutes the frequent assertion that dam builders have learned from past mistakes. Fortunately, renewable energy alternatives are readily available, and governments are well advised to prioritize them in their future energy strategies," Bosshard added. However, Taylor said that he believes final costs and even cost overruns do not necessarily dictate the wisdom of a project. "It's a risk that has to be managed, and I believe that the sector is getting better at doing that," he said. "The wisdom of the investment is to take the life cycle of that project, and (look at), 'Is that going to be putting society in a better place to manage the future?' Dams, and particularly hydropower projects, provide a very … prudent way to manage our future, working with nature best as we can to make sure that we can provide the vital services of energy and water." The post Mega-dams Economically Unviable: Oxford Report appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Asia-Pacific Failing to Save Forests, Grassland Loss Posted: 11 Mar 2014 11:32 PM PDT A sign for the Hukaung Valley Tiger Reserve in Kachin State which says "no hunting" with the environment devastation on the background. (Photo: Shingkri / KDNG) ULAN BATOR — Asia-Pacific nations are failing to halt the loss of natural forests and grasslands, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Tuesday, robbing people of their livelihoods and worsening environmental problems like desertification and climate change. Forests and grasslands make up 58 percent of the region’s land mass, but each year 2 million hectares (20,000 square kms) are degraded and rendered useless, Patrick Durst, a FAO senior forestry officer told a food conference in Ulan Bator. Across the Asia-Pacific, 400 million hectares (4 mln sq kms)—an area equal to the combined size of India and Burma—are now in bad need of restoration, he said. "We are already seeing strong negative impacts," Durst told Reuters at the conference. In China and Mongolia, over-grazing and poor land management mean herders increasingly have to give up feeding their livestocks and instead look for new jobs in fast-growing cities. Lost grassland boosts desertification and helps cause massive sand storms that sometimes carry as far as eastern Canada. Meanwhile, illegal logging, farmland expansion and urbanization drive deforestation across the region, especially in Southeast Asia. Data from green group WWF show the greater Mekong region lost a third of its forests in the 35 years to 2009, even though deforestation rates have slowed somewhat in recent years. Bucking the trend would form a basis for much needed economic development in the region, Durst said. "Forest and grassland restoration can provide a range of ecosystem-derived environmental, social and economic benefits," he said. But solving the issue would require funding arrangements, stronger domestic law enforcement, strong political will and capacity-building, FAO said. Reforestation Gone Wrong In search of positive news, FAO said that while loss of natural forests continue, actual forest coverage in the region has increased over the past 20 years, mostly thanks to reforestation programs in China, India and Vietnam. But experts say problems have only gotten worse in many reforested areas because biologically diverse forests have been replaced with single species planted for commercial purposes, such as palm oil and rubber plantations. In China’s Yunnan province, for example, experts say reforestation policies are partly to blame for a four-year drought despite being a rain-rich regions. Less than 10 percent of Yunnan’s natural forest remains, and recently planted commercial trees lack the ability to regulate groundwater flow. Because they are more water intensive than native trees they require irrigation, consuming a large share of the region’s water resources. "Mixing trees with grass in dry areas would ensure their survival and protect biodiversity, isolate pests and limit forest fires," said Jin Zhonghao, China director for WWF’s global forest and trade network. The post Asia-Pacific Failing to Save Forests, Grassland Loss appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Front Companies, Embassies Mask North Korean Weapons Trade: UN Posted: 11 Mar 2014 11:24 PM PDT A missile-shaped object is seen inside the North Korean-flagged ship 'Chong Chon Gang' docked at the Manzanillo Container Terminal in Colon City on July 16, 2013. Panama detained the ship from Cuba as it headed to the Panama Canal and said it was hiding weapons in brown sugar containers. (Photo: Reuters) SEOUL — North Korea has developed sophisticated ways to circumvent UN sanctions, including the suspected use of its embassies to facilitate an illegal trade in weapons, a United Nations report issued on Tuesday said. It said North Korea was also making use of more complicated financial countermeasures and techniques "pioneered by drug-trafficking organizations" that made tracking the isolated state's purchase of prohibited goods more difficult. The report, compiled by a panel of eight UN experts, is part of an annual accounting of North Korea's compliance with layers of UN sanctions imposed in response to Pyongyang's banned nuclear weapons and missile programs. The panel reports to the UN Security Council. "From the incidents analyzed in the period under review, the panel has found that [North Korea] makes increasing use of multiple and tiered circumvention techniques," a summary of the 127-page report said. China, North Korea's main trading partner and diplomatic ally, appeared to have complied with most of the panel's requests for information. Some independent experts and Western countries question how far Beijing has gone in implementing sanctions, although the report did not specifically address that issue. China has said it wants sanctions enforced. Much of the report focused on North Korea's overseas trade networks, rather than its relationship with China. Indeed, the panel said it found a relatively complex "corporate ecosystem" of foreign-based firms and individuals that helped North Korea evade scrutiny of its assets as well as its financial and trade dealings. North Korea's embassies abroad play a key role in aiding and abetting these shadowy companies, the report said, confirming long-held suspicions by the international community. In some of the most comprehensive evidence presented publicly against Pyongyang's embassies, the report said the missions in Cuba and Singapore were suspected of organizing an illegal shipment of Cuban fighter jets and missile parts that were seized on a North Korean container ship in Panama last July. It included secret North Korean documents addressed to the ship's captain that offered detailed instructions on how to load and conceal the illegal weapons shipment, and make a false declaration to customs officers in Panama. Panama seized the Chong Chon Gang ship for smuggling Soviet-era arms, including two MiG-21 jet fighters, under thousands of tons of sugar. After the discovery, Cuba acknowledged it was sending "obsolete" Soviet-era weapons to be repaired in North Korea and returned to Cuba. "Load the containers first and load the 10,000 tons of sugar [at the next port] over them so that the containers cannot be seen," the document, translated from Korean, said. Chinpo Shipping, a firm that the report said was "co-located" with the North Korean Embassy in Singapore, acted as the agent for a Pyongyang-based company that operated the vessel, and North Korean diplomatic personnel in Cuba arranged the shipping of the concealed cargo. A North Korean Embassy official, reached by telephone, denied the Singapore mission had engaged in any wrongdoing. The embassy had recently moved from the address listed in the report, added the official, who declined to give his name. A Reuters reporter who went to the address could not find the embassy, just Chinpo Shipping. A receptionist said the firm's head was not available to comment. Singapore's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but the government's stated policy is to enforce UN sanctions. It was after work hours in Cuba when the report was released. North Korea has gone to great lengths to mask the origin of its merchant shipping fleet by reflagging and renaming ships, the report said, particularly after the introduction of tightened UN sanctions in early 2013 that followed the country's third nuclear test. Most of the registered owners of the ships are small companies that rarely own more than five vessels, meaning Pyongyang is able to keep its fleet running if a ship or shipping company is seized or has its assets frozen. Under the myriad UN sanctions, North Korea is banned from shipping and receiving cargo related to its nuclear and missile programs. The importation of some luxury goods is also banned, along with the illicit transfer of bulk cash. North Korea has fostered a complicated corporate network outside the international financial system that it uses to buy both banned and permitted goods, the report added. The panel cited an example of an "unusually complex" transaction involving a contract by Air Koryo, the national carrier, to purchase new aircraft in 2012. It said 109 payments were structured through eight Hong Kong-registered companies which asserted they were trading partners of Air Koryo and were wiring funds they owed it. The purchase of civilian aircraft is not prohibited under UN sanctions, but some of the companies appeared to have been recently formed shell entities, the report said, and suggested such activity could be used as a test-run for illegal transactions. North Korea is also still dependent on foreign suppliers for its missile programs, the report said, referring to a long-range rocket salvaged by South Korea that contained parts originating from China, the United States, the former Soviet Union, South Korea, the United Kingdom and Switzerland. The rocket was fired out to sea in December 2012. A shipment of missile components sent from China and seized by South Korea in 2012 was destined for Syria, an investigation by the panel also showed. The panel said it had also investigated reports that Myanmar, Eritrea, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Somalia and Iran might have bought North Korean weapons. Additional reporting by Rujun Shen in Singapore. The post Front Companies, Embassies Mask North Korean Weapons Trade: UN appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Malaysia Air Force Chief Denies Saying Lost Plane Tracked to West Posted: 11 Mar 2014 11:17 PM PDT A Vietnamese officer stands next to a TV screen showing a flight route during a news conference about their mission to find missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 at Phu Quoc Airport in Phu Quoc Island, March 11, 2014. (Photo: Reuters) KUALA LUMPUR — Malaysia's air force chief has denied saying military radar tracked a missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner over the Strait of Malacca, adding to the mystery surrounding the fate of flight MH370, which vanished on Saturday with 239 people aboard. A massive air and sea search now in its fifth day has failed to find any trace of the Boeing 777, and the last 24 hours have seen conflicting statements and reports over what may have happened after it lost contact with air traffic controllers. Malaysia's Berita Harian newspaper on Tuesday quoted Air Force chief Rodzali Daud as saying the plane was last detected by military radar at the northern end of the Strait of Malacca at 2.40 am on Saturday, hundreds of kilometers off course. "I wish to state that I did not make any such statements," Rodzali said in a statement on Wednesday. The air force chief said he had merely repeated that military radar tracking suggested the plane might have turned back. A senior military officer who had been briefed on the investigation told Reuters on Tuesday that the aircraft had made a detour to the west after communications with civilian authorities ended. "It changed course after Kota Bharu and took a lower altitude. It made it into the Malacca Strait," the officer said. Malaysian authorities have said previously that flight MH370 disappeared around 1.30 am, roughly midway between Malaysia's east coast town of Kota Bharu and southern Vietnam, about an hour after it took off from Kuala Lumpur bound for Beijing. The Strait of Malacca, one of the world's busiest shipping channels, runs along Malaysia's west coast, while Kota Bharu is on the northeast coast. After the comments from the officer, a non-military source familiar with the investigations said the reported detour was one of several theories and was being checked. If the plane had made such a detour it would undermine the theory that it suffered a sudden, catastrophic mechanical failure, as it would mean it flew at least 500 km (350 miles) after its last contact with air traffic control. A spokesman for the Malaysian prime minister's office said on Wednesday he had not been informed by the military of evidence showing the plane had recrossed the Malay Peninsula to reach the Malacca Strait. "The people I checked with were not aware of that," spokesman Tengku Sariffuddin Tengku Ahmad told Reuters. Huge International Search A huge international search operation has been mostly focused on the shallow waters of the Gulf of Thailand off Malaysia's east coast, although the Strait of Malacca has been included since Sunday. Navy ships, military aircraft, helicopters, coast guard and civilian vessels from 10 nations have criss-crossed the seas off both coasts of Malaysia without success. In the absence of any concrete evidence to explain the plane's disappearance, authorities have not ruled out anything. Police have said they were investigating whether any passengers or crew on the plane had personal or psychological problems that might shed light on the mystery, along with the possibility of a hijacking, sabotage or mechanical failure. "Maybe somebody on the flight has bought a huge sum of insurance, who wants family to gain from it or somebody who has owed somebody so much money, you know, we are looking at all possibilities," Malaysian police chief Khalid Abu Bakar said at a news conference on Tuesday. The airline said it was taking seriously a report by a South African woman who said the co-pilot of the missing plane had invited her and a female travelling companion to sit in the cockpit during a flight two years ago, in an apparent breach of security. "Malaysia Airlines has become aware of the allegations being made against First Officer Fariq Ab Hamid which we take very seriously. We are shocked by these allegations. We have not been able to confirm the validity of the pictures and videos of the alleged incident," the airline said in a statement. The woman, Jonti Roos, said in an interview with Australia's Channel Nine TV that she and her friend were invited to fly in the cockpit by Fariq and the pilot between Phuket, Thailand, and Kuala Lumpur in December 2011. The TV channel showed pictures of the four apparently in a plane's cockpit. The Boeing 777 has one of the best safety records of any commercial aircraft in service. Its only previous fatal crash came on July 6 last year when Asiana Airlines Flight 214 struck a seawall on landing in San Francisco, killing three people. US planemaker Boeing has declined to comment beyond a brief statement saying it was monitoring the situation. The post Malaysia Air Force Chief Denies Saying Lost Plane Tracked to West appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

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