The Irrawaddy Magazine

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• Unicef Highlights Plight of Burma’s IDPs, Vulnerable Children
• Draft Law on Religious Conversion to Be Finished by June: Deputy Minister
• 12 Arrested in Sittwe Over Attacks on Aid Offices
• Burma Authorities Halt Villagers’ Journey to New Homes in Rebel Territory
• UN Team Meets With Burma Govt Officials Over Sittwe Tension
• Inflation Expected to Rise as Burma’s Economy Grows
• On Divided Societies, Democracy and Federalism
• Meeting About Salween Dams Troubles Shan Communities
• The US Looks Good as Obama Heads to Malaysia
• Malaysia Releases Transcript of Last Words From Missing Plane
• Climate Change Responses to Shape Asia’s Future
• Anger in China at Brutality in Chemical Plant Protests

Unicef Highlights Plight of Burma’s IDPs, Vulnerable Children Posted: 02 Apr 2014 06:12 AM PDT Displaced Rohingya woman sits with her child outside a temporary camp in Pauktaw Township, Arakan State. (Photo: The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — More than 800,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Burma are facing a variety of critical humanitarian needs, according to Unicef, which found that one in three IDPs are children vulnerable to malnutrition and a host of knock-on effects. Unicef is hosting a two-day National Conference on Faith for Children in Burma, where the UN body on Wednesday highlighted the situation of IDPs in Arakan and Kachin states, regions where conflict has displaced some 140,000 and 90,000 people, respectively Buddhist, Christian, Islamic and Hindu leaders were among more than 100 attendees of the two-day conference, which will conclude in Rangoon on Thursday. Penelope Campbell, who heads the child survival and development unit of Unicef, told The Irrawaddy on the sidelines of the conference that people in Arakan State were suffering the most extreme hardship, after religious conflict between Buddhists and Muslims in the region pushed many people out of their homes and into temporary camps where conditions are poor. About 1.4 percent of Burma's entire population, some 834,000 people, have been displaced as a result of ethnic or religious conflict over the years, according to Unicef. In Arakan State, members of both the ethnic Arakanese and the minority Muslim Rohingya communities have been displaced, though Rohingya have suffered the brunt of the upheaval. Of 138,000 IDPs in the state, 115,000 have nutritional needs, according to Unicef. Among the IDP population in Kachin State, 20,000 people face similar dietary deficiencies. Liza Barrie, chief of the Civil Society Partnerships Program at Unicef, said children faced the greatest risks, with far-reaching implications. "Malnutrition in early childhood has long-lasting impacts, not only for a child, but on a nation's economic performance," Barrie said. "The first 1,000 days between the start of pregnancy and a child's second birthday is a critical window of opportunity to prevent the irreversible and life-long damage caused by malnutrition, including a condition called stunting." Campbell said a key factor contributing to the problem was a lack of opportunities to make a living among displaced populations. "People's ability to obtain their livelihoods through any means, whether it be farming or other means, has been impacted by being displaced and living in camps. That is one factor. Malnutrition and poverty have resulted," she explained, adding that in northern Arakan State, the isolation of some villages exacerbated the humanitarian woes of vulnerable populations, such as those in Maungdaw and Buthidaung townships. The situation in Kachin State is relatively less severe in terms of malnutrition, Campbell said, while adding that access to populations, and thus reliable data, remained difficult. "I think a key solution is to make sure these children have access to good food, and this goes for the mother as well, because as we highlighted earlier, from the moment of conception and especially that first three months of the pregnancy, it is really, really important for the mother to be well nourished. Otherwise it has irreversible development on the fetus," she said, adding that access to education and health services were also essential in allowing IDPs to "transform their situation." Nearly 190,000 children in Arakan State lack access to education, and almost 60,000 are similarly disenfranchised in Kachin State. Staff from UN agencies and several NGOs left Arakan State last week, citing safety concerns after their offices were attacked by Buddhist mobs. The medical aid organization Medecins Sans Frontieres was forced to shutter its operations in late February. Amid the dwindling humanitarian presence, aid groups have said IDPs in the state will face food and water shortages in the coming weeks. "My concerns over the last week or two, and the UN's concerns, is ensuring that the affected populations have access to basic services, that's vital, and that the security is in place to enable the provision of those services without fears or insecurity," Campbell said of the situation in Arakan State. Campbell said one in 10 children under the age of 5 who are living in IDP camps around the Arakan State capital of Sittwe is severely or moderately malnourished. Maung Maung Htay, the deputy religious affairs minister, attended this week's conference, where he said the gathering would allow a variety of faith leaders to share their experiences. "We will learn from them [international leaders] how to help children in our country. We have many things to learn from them," he said, adding that a major goal was to reduce Burma's infant mortality rate. Barrie of Unicef said in a keynote speech that religion could have a profound influence on children's development and socialization, and had the potential to reinforce protective influences and promote resilience. She urged religious communities to make sure their mosques, synagogues or churches were "a safe and supportive place for children." The conference was organized by Unicef and the local NGO Ratana Metta Organization. The post Unicef Highlights Plight of Burma's IDPs, Vulnerable Children appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Draft Law on Religious Conversion to Be Finished by June: Deputy Minister Posted: 02 Apr 2014 06:08 AM PDT A banner promoting the new Upper Burma chapter of the Group to Protect Nationality, Religion and the Buddhist Mission is seen at a monastery in Mandalay. (Photo: Teza Hlaing / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — Within the next couple months, a government commission will finish drafting two bills to restrict religious conversion and to enact population control measures, the deputy minister for religious affairs says. Maung Maung Htay said on Wednesday that commission members from the Ministry of Religious Affairs would finish drafting the religious conversion bill by late May or early June, while commission members from the Ministry of Immigration and Population would finish drafting the population control bill around the same time. "When the draft laws are finished, we will try to make them available to the public," he told The Irrawaddy on the sidelines of a press conference in Rangoon. He said the bills would be sent to President Thein Sein before being published for public review and forwarded to Parliament for consideration. The proposed legislation has been supported by nationalist Buddhist monks as part of a package of four bills to "protect race and religion." The other two bills, being drafted by the country's highest court, would put restrictions on interfaith marriage and ban polygamy if enacted. The monks collected more than 1 million signatures to back the bills, which are largely seen as a way to deter conversions to Islam in the Buddhist-majority country. Proponents have said a population control bill is necessary to prevent the Muslim population from growing. Activists and some religious leaders have opposed the bills, which they say could enflame religious tensions. Other critics have questioned whether the government, and particularly the president, is seeking to exploit religious nationalism ahead of elections in 2015. Maung Maung Htay, the deputy minister, said the religious conversion bill would outline steps that people would need to take before lawfully converting to another faith, including registering the conversion with government authorities. He said most religious conversions in Burma occurred due to interfaith marriages. The interfaith marriage bill is still being drafted, but previous versions have called for Buddhist women to receive permission from their parents and government officials before marrying a man from any other faith, and for non-Buddhist men to convert to Buddhism before marrying Buddhist women. Zin Mar Aung, a women's rights activist, criticized the campaign to "protect race and religion." "The 'race protection' laws are only for Buddhists, and they are especially restrictive for women. In a country with many ethnicities and religions, the laws don't seem to fit with our reality," the founder of the Rainfall Gender Study Group, which promotes democracy, women's empowerment and conflict resolution in Burma, told The Irrawaddy. She took particular issue with the interfaith marriage bill. "Women don't have the right to choose their partner on their own with this law," she said. "Instead, we should develop women's economic, academic and social skills so they can freely choose their life partners based on their own knowledge and decisions." The push to "protect race and religion" comes amid ongoing tension between Buddhists and Muslims, especially in western Burma's Arakan State. Since 2012, communal violence between Buddhists and Muslims has left scores dead and over 140,000 people displaced. "The situation in Rakhine [Arakan] is very complicated right now. The government will solve this and is trying to work with UN agencies. There are some who are initiating conflicts," Maung Maung Htay told The Irrawaddy. "Matters of religion are related to belief, and this can be very sensitive." The post Draft Law on Religious Conversion to Be Finished by June: Deputy Minister appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

12 Arrested in Sittwe Over Attacks on Aid Offices Posted: 02 Apr 2014 05:23 AM PDT A WFP warehouse in Sittwe was attacked by Buddhist mobs on Thursday. (Photo: Facebook/Myanmar Police Force) RANGOON — Police in the Arakan State capital Sittwe said they have arrested 12 suspects in relation to the attacks on the offices of the United Nations and international aid groups last week. "We arrested 12 of them yesterday, we are interrogating them," Tun Oo, a police colonel in Sittwe, told The Irrawaddy on Wednesday, adding that a police investigation into the violence was ongoing and would result in more arrests. "Based on our interrogation of them, based on their statements, we will arrest more people," he said, adding, "There are some detainees who have confessed already." Tun Oo said charges would be brought forth against anyone who "violated the rule of law." On March 26 and 27, Arakanese Buddhist mobs in Sittwe went on a rampage and targeted UN and international NGO offices. More than a dozen office buildings were trashed, and mob attacks were carried out aid storage facilities, boat and transport vehicles, as well as some private residence of aid workers. State media reported that about 130 aid workers, both foreign and Burmese, were forced to seek police protection and flee Sittwe by airplane. Groups of several hundred people were involved in the riots and police fired more than 120 warning shots in order to restore security, according to state-run media. On March 27, an 11-year-old Arakanese girl was killed by a stray bullet from a police weapon when officers were trying to contain mobs. Arakanese authorities and President Thein Sein have since announced inquiries into unrest. The riots erupted on March 26 after an employee of Malteser International took down a Buddhist flag on a building that the aid group was renting. Shortly afterward a rumor swirled through Sittwe alleging that she had handled the religious flag improperly—a claim that Malteser International denies. Buddhist groups in Arakan have long been angered by international aid support for the Rohingya Muslims, who have been the target of Arakanese mob attacks that have displaced tens of thousands of people. International registration methods used during the current UN-backed national census had also enraged the group as these would allow Rohingya to fill in their own ethnic identity. The Arakanese insist the Muslims are 'Bengali' immigrants from Bangladesh. Following the riots, which have brought crucial aid operations supporting about 140,000 Rohingya to a halt, Burma's government decided to alter the census registration and ignore any respondent who self-identifies as Rohingya. The UN, US and EU missions in Burma have condemned the attacks and voiced concern over the changes to the census methodology. The post 12 Arrested in Sittwe Over Attacks on Aid Offices appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Burma Authorities Halt Villagers’ Journey to New Homes in Rebel Territory Posted: 02 Apr 2014 04:59 AM PDT DKBA leader Maj. San Aung (with blue bag) talks with a Karen State official near Durinseik village, where a group of villagers traveling to rebel territory has been held up. (U Khin Maung Shwe / Facebook) More than 200 villagers whose homes were bulldozed by the Burmese military in Rangoon Division in February have been blocked from traveling to rebel-controlled territory where an ethnic Karen armed group has offered them land. After they were evicted from military-owned land in Hlegu Township, the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) offered the ethnic Karen former residents of Thameegalay village a place to stay. But on Wednesday, as the villagers were making their way in cars and trucks toward the DKBA's area, they were blocked at the border of Karen and Mon states, villagers and officials told The Irrawaddy. One of the villagers, Win Soe, said by telephone from near Durinseik village, where the group had been stopped, that about 50 border police and government army troops blocked their way and told them to stay put. "We are still at a border checkpoint at Donethami bridge. We've been here more than two hours," Win Soe told The Irrawaddy on Wednesday afternoon. The villagers were told they were only being stopped while authorities attempted to negotiate with the DKBA, but they feared they will be stranded at least overnight. The situation had not changed at about 5:30 pm. Hpa-an District Administrator Ye Naing insisted the villagers were not being detained, but said their journey had to be delayed while Karen State officials attempt to discuss the move of the villagers with DKBA leader Maj. San Aung. "The Karen State government asks the DKBA for negotiations, for the sake of the displaced villagers' future," he said, adding that the rebel leadership had declined to travel from Durinseik village to the Karen State capital of Hpa-an to discuss the issue. "They said the government must come to them if they want to discuss. Therefore, we are in a dispute," Ye Naing said, adding that hoped-for return of tens of thousands of Karen displaced over the Thai border during years of civil war complicated land issues in Karen State. "If they relocate the displaced people without consulting with the state government and local groups, land problems could arise. Therefore, we want to talk first. Then, the relocation can happen." Win Soe said 79 households from the Thameegalay, Innpatee and Pawkali villages in Rangoon Division left their temporary shelter at Aungtheikhti monastery in Pegu Division—where they had been living with the support of the DKBA since February—at 5:30 am. Their destination was a village in Myawaddy Township, Karen State, where the DKBA has promised to provide each household with a 40-by-60-feet plot of land. Despite the hold-up, he said he was still hopeful about the move to DKBA territory. "We have nothing left from our old villages, so we are ready to confront any challenges ahead at our new home," Win Soe said. "Maj. San Aung will provide us short-term basic assistance while we build our own houses as well as help looking for jobs for us." The post Burma Authorities Halt Villagers' Journey to New Homes in Rebel Territory appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

UN Team Meets With Burma Govt Officials Over Sittwe Tension Posted: 02 Apr 2014 03:13 AM PDT An interior view of the United Nations Children's Fund (Unicef) office that was damaged during the recent violence is seen in Sittwe on March 28, 2014. (Photo: Reuters) RANGOON — A high-level UN mission has flown to Arakan State to discuss with Burmese government officials a plan for responding to the withdrawal of international aid workers as well as a looming shortage of food and water for tens of thousands of vulnerable people. Pierre Peron, a spokesman for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), said a mission of the UN resident and humanitarian coordinator and the heads of several UN agencies in the country traveled on Tuesday to the state capital of Sittwe, where aid agencies are based, and continued meetings on Wednesday with state-level authorities as well as the deputy minister of border affairs, usually based in Naypyidaw. A team led by Burma's vice president and the minister of immigration and population has also been sent to the state, which is simultaneously in the middle of a controversial census. Peron said the UN mission and government officials would discuss a strategy for creating conditions for the safe return of international aid workers, who have largely left Sittwe after their offices and homes were attacked by local Arakanese Buddhists who accused them of favoring Rohingya Muslims. He said both sides would consider a response to the supply shortages at camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs), which rely on assistance from the aid groups. "The government has the duty to ensure that people living there, whether in camps or other parts of the state, have assistance that they need," he told The Irrawaddy. "If NGOs can't provide it, the government has a responsibility to." He said about 120 aid workers had left Sittwe, including mostly foreign staff members or Burmese staff from other parts of the country. The bulk of Arakanese staff members have stayed in the city but are remaining at home and not working. "As of now, no aid services are functioning in the region," Ingo Radtke, secretary general of aid group Malteser International, said in a statement on Tuesday. The humanitarian group, which provides critical health care services for Rohingya Muslims as well as Arakanese Buddhists, said an estimated 90 percent of all premises of international relief organizations and of the United Nations in Sittwe had been attacked by unidentified groups. It added, however, that it was continuing its health care activities outside of Sittwe in the northern part of Arakan State. Only a few NGOs have kept international staff in Sittwe, Peron said, adding that most UN staff members were still staying in the city. "But obviously the activities are very limited because the offices have been trashed," he said. The UN World Food Program (WFP), which provides food to IDP camps and other vulnerable populations, was targeted by protesters, but its stockpiles of food were not stolen or destroyed. However, Myint Myint, a spokeswoman for the WFP, told The Irrawaddy that food distributions had been temporarily suspended. "We are determined to continue providing life-saving humanitarian assistance to those in need," he added. The WFP typically works with NGOs to distribute food and water to IDP camps. Distributions had taken place normally over the past month, according to Peron, who said IDPs had enough food only for the next two weeks. If the NGO workers do not return to the state within that time, he said UN agencies would attempt to make the deliveries on their own. "That will be a challenge," he added. Water shortages are also a serious concern, especially as Burma approaches the height of the dry season. At two camps in Pauktaw Township that are only accessible by boat, the water supply will reach "critical levels" within eight to 10 days, Peron said. He added that boats were damaged during the attacks, but that the government was providing new boats to reach the camps with UN funding for fuel. "That's a short-term measure, but in the medium to long term we really need the NGOs to come back," he said. He said the biggest concern in Arakan State was a lack of health services. In the past, international NGOs were responsible for offering medical care and making referrals for patients at IDP camps and in isolated communities. "People aren't getting to hospitals when they need to," he said. The situation in Sittwe has reportedly calmed since last Wednesday and Thursday, when the offices and residences of at least nine UN agencies and international NGOs were destroyed by hundreds of Arakanese people. Aid workers were not injured in the attacks, but an 11-year-old Arakanese girl was killed by a stray bullet after police fired warning shots to disperse a mob. The riots were sparked by allegations that a staff member of Malteser International improperly handled a Buddhist flag—a claim which the aid group denies. Humanitarian workers say the attacks were not an isolated incident, but rather the culmination of months of community resistance against international NGOs and UN agencies, which have angered Arakanese Buddhists by providing support to the Rohingya, a stateless and impoverished Muslim minority. Many Arakanese are opposed to the Rohingya, which they accuse of coming to Burma illegally from Bangladesh. Communal violence between Buddhists and Muslims in the state since 2012 has left scores dead and displaced more than 140,000 people, mostly Rohingya. Over the weekend, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon personally called Burmese President Thein Sein and urged protection for UN and international aid workers. He also asked the Burma government to ensure a peaceful and credible census in the state, as enumerators have refused to record information for anyone identifying as Rohingya, following government orders. Thein Sein has set up a five-member investigation team led by the deputy minister of border affairs to question international organizations as well as the Arakan State government about the violence of last week. The findings will be sent to the president by next Monday. The Burmese Muslim Association (BMA) noted that the attacks on aid organizations were preceded by the visit of nationalist Buddhist monk U Wirathu to Arakan State last month. Wirathu has led an anti-Muslim campaign known as the 969 movement over the past year. In a statement on Monday, the UK-based BMA said the riots in Sittwe were the latest evidence of a systematic targeting of international agencies that assist the Rohingya, and it accused authorities of being unwilling to provide protection. "With humanitarian space in Arakan State clearly under threat, the international community must rethink its strategy of engagement with Burmese authorities and consider the deployment of … international security observers to ensure the safety of aid agencies as well as the security of Rohingya people in Arakan State," it said. The post UN Team Meets With Burma Govt Officials Over Sittwe Tension appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Inflation Expected to Rise as Burma’s Economy Grows Posted: 02 Apr 2014 02:26 AM PDT Burma's Central Bank building Naypyitaw. The Central Bank has few options for dealing with rising inflation in the country. (Photo: Reuters) RANGOON — While observers are positive about the economic outlook as Burma enters a new fiscal year, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) both predict rising inflation, pushing the cost of living up for the country's mostly poor population. The ADB on Tuesday released its annual Asian Development Outlook report, estimating that Burma's gross domestic product grew by 7.5 percent in 2013-14 and predicting higher growth of 7.8 percent both this year and next. "Growth [in 2013] was supported by rising investment propelled by improved business confidence, commodity exports, buoyant tourism, and credit growth, complemented by the government's ambitious, structural reform program," the Bank said. It noted that, with new offshore natural gas fields now online, gas now makes up 40 percent of the value of Burma's exports, or US$3.6 billion a year. President Thein Sein—who has overseen political and economic reforms since coming to power three years ago—said in January that the government was aiming for 9.1 percent economic growth in the current fiscal year, which began Tuesday. But with rapid growth and investment from overseas predicted to continue, the ADB also said that prices are rising in Burma. The Central Bank, which has only recently begun moving away from direct government control, still has limited levers with which to prevent a return to the uncontrolled inflation that was common in Burma before the country began its transition from military rule. Inflation was 5.8 percent in 2013-14, and would accelerate to 6.6 percent and 6.9 percent in 2014-15 and 2015-16, respectively, the ADB said. "Factors contributing to inflation include a boost to public sector wages, higher electricity tariffs, and rising property prices in cities," it said. The Burmese currency, the kyat, has depreciated by 11 percent since it was floated April 2013, the ADB said. Other pressures on consumers have been higher food prices and soaring rents, especially in the commercial capital of Rangoon. The price of electricity, which is heavily subsidized, has also just been raised to anger of some groups of citizens. The IMF on March 28 also published a report on Burma's economy by members of the fund's staff who are working closely with the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM). The report reiterated the IMF's prediction of 7.75 percent growth this year "as construction accelerates and services growth remains strong." "However," said the IMF report, "inflation is forecast to reach 7 percent [this fiscal year], fueled by electricity prices and demand pressures." The IMF said inflation and the exchange rate of the kyat were a risk to the economy in the short term. "Should anticipated foreign exchange inflows not materialize soon, or be kept outside the CBM, its thin reserve cushion would be insufficient to resist short-term exchange rate pressures." A new law enacted in July 2013 separates the Central Bank from the Ministry of Finance, a move intended to avoid political meddling with the monetary system. But the IMF said autonomy would not become a reality until 2015-16, and said the Central Bank did not yet have the ability to regulate the monetary system. "Monetary policy tools need to be developed urgently to counter inflationary pressures," it said, advising that the Central Bank needed more money to do its job. A Central Bank official, who spoke to The Irrawaddy on condition of anonymity, said that in a fast-growing economy like Burma, the current level of inflation is not especially high—and is far lower than "double-digit" levels seen under the country's previous military regimes. However, the official admitted that the rate does need to be controlled in order to protect the poor from higher prices that would impact their cost of living. "It is not really abnormal, but we have to come up with some measures," the official said. "We're going to take all possible measures to control this increasing inflation, although we don't have that many instruments." The official explained that the current levers at the bank's disposal were deposit auctions—the central bank can offer banks higher interest rates on deposits in order to take money out of the economy—and bank reserve requirements. He said the central bank was currently "revising" its method of enforcing reserve requirements in the financial sector—the proportion of money that private banks must keep in reserve and not lend out—in an effort to tighten up lending. According to the IMF, lending in the private banking sector has been growing "apace"—in October 2013 it was 56 percent higher than a year earlier. The IMF said lending is expected to "moderate to around 30 percent by 2014/15." "We're trying to take money out of the system," the official said, adding that the Central Bank was also working with the Ministry of Finance to address the growing cost of living. "It's a trade-off between controlling inflation and facilitating growth in the market." The post Inflation Expected to Rise as Burma's Economy Grows appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

On Divided Societies, Democracy and Federalism Posted: 02 Apr 2014 01:33 AM PDT A National League for Democracy supporter holds up a mobile phone with a picture of Aung San Suu Kyi in Rangoon on April 1, 2012, following a sweeping by-election win by the NLD. (Photo: Reuters) As discussions about constitutional reform and a more federated political system for Burma heat up, Czech-based human rights activist Igor Bazevic offers up nine theses and a final thought on the challenges the country faces. No. 1: Deep divisions within pluralistic societies are favorable for creating and sustaining authoritarian systems. Many multi-ethnic societies are not democratic. No. 2: Authoritarian systems have a strong tendency to be centralized and unitary, even if some pretend to be federal systems (like the former Soviet Union, or Russia today). No. 3: Authoritarianism is not able to solve deep divisions. It only suppresses them, without dissolving them. To make things worse, authoritarian systems usually deepen and increase the extent of the problems in divided, pluralistic societies. In today's world, authoritarianism does not work well as a nation-building system of governance, nor as a means of ruling "melting pot" societies. Maybe it was possible centuries ago to transform peasants in what is today France into the "French nation" through centralist policies of an absolutist state. Today something similar is far less feasible, if not completely impossible. No. 4: Authoritarianism has a tendency, even if it did not start with this ambition, to increase domination of one identity group over the other or others. By doing so, it only deepens divisions. Sometimes it is the domination of a minority over the majority (like Alawites in Syria and Sunnis in Saddam Hussein's Iraq). Other times it is the domination of a majority over smaller identity groups (like Turks over Kurds in Turkey or Bamar over everybody else in Burma). No. 5: Crafting federal constitutions for pluralistic societies is among the most difficult of tasks. No. 6: Deeply divided societies are not favorable grounds for a transition to democracy. Any transition to democracy from authoritarian rule is a complex and difficult task. It is much harder to democratize deeply divided societies. We need only look at the recent examples of countries where people power has toppled authoritarian rulers. Tunisia is a relatively homogenous country, and its transition to democracy has had its own challenges and problems. However, it is in better shape than any other "Arab Spring" country. Iraq and Syria are deeply divided societies along ethnic and religious lines, and their attempted transitions to democracy have resulted in bloody, destructive civil wars. Libya is a country with deep and long-existing tribal and regional divisions, and its attempted transition to democracy has finished in state fracture. Ukraine and Georgia are countries with deep divisions, and that has enabled the interference of a powerful and unfriendly neighbor—in both cases Russia, known in the political science lexicon as an "external spoiler" in this context. We witnessed something similar in the early '90s with the democratization of the post-Soviet region. Multiethnic situations and deep divisions therein have been fertile ground for conflict and the re-emergence of new forms of authoritarianism and have generally not been favorable to the consolidation of democracy. No. 7: Democracy (meaning respect for civil and political rights, along with free and fair elections and meaningful multiparty competition) does not immediately solve the problem of deeply divided societies. No. 8: Democracy (defined more narrowly as a system in which free and fair elections are held) sometimes—some will say often—instigates and fuels even more fissures in deeply divided societies. No. 9: Democracy, decentralization and federalism are a good—and probably the best and the only—way to solve deep divisions, but institutions need to be carefully selected and negotiated through inclusive, moderate and compromise-seeking processes. Not just any democratic institution helps. Some democratic institutions that work well in homogenous societies are harmful in highly pluralistic and divided societies. Only carefully selected, inclusive institutions can help; those that give incentives to competing parties to behave moderately. A Final Remark: Burma is, to a great extent, a pluralistic society. In the language of political scientists Alfred Stepan and Juan Linz, Burma is "robustly multinational." As political sociologist Larry Diamond has highlighted, Burma is one of the most divided societies to have ever undertaken the task of democratization. As a result, the country's transition to democracy requires extraordinary maturity, far-sightedness and moderation by its political leaders. And it requires the willingness of its powerful military to accept fundamental change. Igor Blazevic is a Czech-based human rights campaigner of Bosnian origin and the director of Educational Initiatives, a training program for Burmese activists based in Thailand. The post On Divided Societies, Democracy and Federalism appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Meeting About Salween Dams Troubles Shan Communities Posted: 01 Apr 2014 07:05 PM PDT A map drawn up by Shan NGOs indicates the location of the planned Nawng Pha dam and the Mann Taung dam on the Nam Ma river, a tributary of the Salween. (Image: shanhumanrights.org) Communities in northern Shan State have grown worried over two large hydropower dams planned on the Salween River and its tributary, after government officials and representatives of a Burmese and Chinese company informed them about the projects last month, Shan NGOs said Tuesday. "We are very concerned about the likely negative impacts of the projects on the environment and on the communities that live along the length of the river," five ethnic Shan NGOs said in a joint statement, which also included a list of 3,000 signatures collected in more than a dozen Shan villages. Ministry of Electricity officials and representatives of Burma's International Group of Entrepreneurs (IGE) Co. Ltd. and HydroChina Corporation held a public meeting in Tangyan township on March 17 with about 100 villagers from 10 villages situated within a roughly 60-kilometer radius of the two project sites, according to the NGOs. Villagers were reportedly informed of the local benefits of the 1,200 mega-watt Nawng Pha (Nongpa) dam planned on the Salween river and the 225-Mw Mann Taung dam planned on the Nam Ma river, a tributary of the Salween. "It was promised that impacted villagers would be provided with new houses, schools, healthcare centers, roads, and farmlands, which would ensure better living standards," said the NGOs, which include the Tai Youth Network, the Shan State Youth Network Committee and the Shan Students Union-Thailand. The NGOs said villagers living in near or inside the planned project areas were not invited to the public meeting for some reason. Those in attendance were told that HydroChina Corporation had signed an agreement with the Ministry of Electricity to build the dams and operate the hydropower stations under a 40-year concession. The vast majority of the generated power, about 90 percent, would be exported to nearby China, company representatives supposedly told villagers. Burma's government signed an agreement with China over the construction of the Nawng Pha dam during the 2010 visit of then Chinese Vice-President Xi Jinping. The Burmese company partnering with the Chinese firm on the hydropower projects is IGE Co Ltd, a conglomerate with business interests in banking, timber, oil, gas and mining. IGE is owned by the sons of Aung Thaung, the Ministry of Industry under the previous military regime and currently a lawmaker with the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). Company workers have begun clearing the ground in project areas and IGE told local communities that 430 people in two villages would lose 3,307 acres of land to the Nawng Pha dam, while 5,566 acres of forest would be lost. The Mann Taung project would flood 677 acres of farmland belonging to 285 people and 7,640 acres of forest. IGE promised support for the relocation of local communities, but details on the projects are scarce as environmental and social impact studies have yet to be carried out. Shan NGOs said local communities had received little information about the project and will probably not be properly consulted over the heavy environmental and social impacts of the dams, nor adequately compensated for loss of livelihoods. They also believe that the number of people who will be displaced by the dams will be larger than the companies' estimates. The groups said "the deteriorating situations of relocated villages of the Irrawaddy Myitsone dam and the Paunglaung dams near the capital Naypyidaw" offered a warning of how the Shan dam projects might be implemented if companies are not held to international project standards. Local communities, however, do not speak out against the projects out of fear for retribution from local authorities and the well-connected companies. "The people in those dam sites – our ethnics inside the country – dare not to talk about their concerns,” said Ying Harn Fah, an activist with the Shan Community Based groups. The NGOs said communities are also worried that the massive, government-approved investments would lead to an influx of Burma Army soldiers to secure the area, a situation that could result in human rights abuses against the population and clashes with ethnic rebel groups. The projects sites are located in areas that are partially under control of the powerful United Wa State Army (UWSA) and other Shan rebel groups, including the Shan State Progressive Party. Sai Khur Hseng said, "Building those dams will only hinder the peace process as they are still fighting over these resource-rich areas." The Minister of Electricity told Parliament last year that the government has plans to build six large dams on the Salween River and one on its tributary. The projects would affect tens of thousands of people from various ethnic communities living along the length of the river, which runs from China through eastern Burma's Shan, Karenni, Karen and Mon states. Last month, on March 14, the International Day of Actions for Rivers, 131 Burmese civil society groups and 34,000 people called for the suspension of all Salween River dam projects during a public event in Moulmein, capital of Mon State. The post Meeting About Salween Dams Troubles Shan Communities appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

The US Looks Good as Obama Heads to Malaysia Posted: 02 Apr 2014 12:20 AM PDT U.S. President Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama greet Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak and his wife Rosmah Mansor in Honolulu, Hawaii November 12, 2011. (Photo: Reuters) President Barack Obama is scheduled to visit Malaysia in April as part of a trip that will also include Japan, the Philippines and South Korea. In Kuala Lumpur's case, it is a trip almost certain to be overshadowed, and justifiably so, by the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 somewhere in the Indian Ocean. That isn't to say Obama shouldn't hold his nose when he comes to Kuala Lumpur. This is a country that observes the forms of democracy but in practice ignores them. The ruling coalition, dominated by the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), has maintained itself in power since independence in 1957 through gerrymandering and suppression of the opposition, most recently through a trumped-up verdict in a sodomy appeal against opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, ironically just a few hours before MH370 disappeared. It may be that sensitivity over the airline tragedy and the constant drumbeat of criticism hurled against Kuala Lumpur in recent weeks will cause Obama to avoid denouncing the government of Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak over its treatment of Anwar and other undemocratic practices, despite calls to do so. In the long run, that could be a wise decision on Washington's part regardless of how one feels about UMNO's heavy-handed ways. On a regional and international level, the disappearance of the plane, and the widely differing reactions by the American and Chinese governments, are likely to play a wider role in the President's efforts to "pivot" American diplomacy and military strategy to Asia, strengthening the impression that the US remains the pre-eminent technological and military power in the Pacific. Angered over Malaysia's fumbling of the search effort, China appears to have shot itself in the foot through unrelenting bluster and criticism, demonstrating Beijing's continuing inability to get the tone right in the region. It wants its neighbors to go along with its claim of hegemony over the South China Sea, but it doesn't even know how to talk to them.  The US has been quietly helpful, something the Malaysians likely appreciate and which could serve to nudge Kuala Lumpur away from recent flirtations with China. Washington has long known and been privately critical of various abuses, such as the unsolved 2006 murder of the Mongolian model Altantuya Shaariibuu and the continuing legal acrobatics concerning Anwar. But it also wants Malaysia in its camp. The 2010 release of the Wikileaks cables were critical but also showed US diplomats describing Malaysia as a moderate Muslim state and a bulwark in Southeast Asia.  Given the Obama administration’s ambitions in Asia, the president is expected to make a gesture toward Anwar’s predicament, but Washington has more to gain by reluctantly going along at this point. By contrast, China, which has no interest in democratic niceties, is having little soft power success close to home. It has already alienated the Philippines by trying to grab various shoals on the basis of its "nine-dash line" map of the South China Sea. In Hong Kong, the public – beyond certain oligarchs and conservatives – remains stubbornly averse to mainland domination.  The same can be said for Taiwan, where suspicion of Beijing remains high. In Taiwan last weekend, hundreds of thousands of people joined a student protest against a trade bill, turning the affair into a wider protest against a Chinese invasion of its press, politics and business community. In Hong Kong, there has been rising irritation over what is felt to be Chinese intrusion into politics, failure to abide by promises of greater democracy and bulldozing of the press. In the case of the missing airliner, the US, either by accident or on purpose, has quietly stepped into the gap, much as the US Seventh Fleet did in the wake of the widespread destruction in the central Philippines caused by Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda in November; at the time, the Chinese response to the disaster was late and overshadowed by the efforts of half a dozen other countries. Washington's policy, announced in 2012, of a pivot or "rebalancing" of its diplomatic and military policy toward Asia, has largely stumbled. In particular, Obama, tied up with a Congressional budget crisis, skipped important regional meetings last August while Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang scored diplomatic triumphs in five Southeast Asian countries. The disasters, tragic as they may be, have helped the US regain the initiative. According to a source with close connections to the government, Malaysia was first reluctant to ask the Americans for help in dealing with the missing Boeing 777-200, which vanished with 239 passengers and crew, refusing offers of assistance from the US. But in succeeding days, superior American air technology, combined with the fact that the airplane had been manufactured in the US, began to assert itself.  The Federal Aviation Administration, the National Transportation Safety Board, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other US agencies accustomed to dealing with air disasters offered quiet help behind the scenes. In the meantime, the Chinese, with 152 of their countrymen aboard the plane, first blustered, demanding stepped up efforts to find it.  Then they announced that a Chinese satellite had found what was thought to be the wreckage of the plane – in the wrong ocean.  The Chinese have recouped, sending a flotilla into the Indian Ocean to aid in the search – which is now being coordinated by the Australians. Chinese planes are searching the area. Beijing has alienated the Malaysians by neglecting to constrain angry relatives of those aboard the aircraft. Crowds broke through police lines protecting the Malaysian embassy, demanding that the Malaysian ambassador kneel before them. One group presented the embassy with a statement that the families would regard Malaysia as "murderers" if it was discovered that the government was at fault in any aspect of the search, according to news services. In the meantime, sources in Malaysia say, the Americans have played a crucial low-key role, advising on the search. An FBI team analyzed the flight simulator found in the home of Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, ending speculation that the device might have contained data that could have been a dry run for taking the plane off course.  A P-8A Poseidon, the most advanced plane looking for the wreckage, is supplied by the US Navy. P3 Orion search planes in the service of various countries were made in the US. A US Navy "ping finder" is aboard an Australian vessel, the Ocean Shield, working the search zone. In this instance, the Americans seem to have played their cards right. Staying relatively unseen and allowing superior technology and sophistication to do the talking for them. The post The US Looks Good as Obama Heads to Malaysia appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Malaysia Releases Transcript of Last Words From Missing Plane Posted: 01 Apr 2014 10:22 PM PDT Squadron leader Brett McKenzie takes notes of search aircraft on the windshield of a Royal New Zealand Air Force P3K2 Orian aircraft searching for flight MH370 last month. (Photo: Reuters) KUALA LUMPUR/PERTH — The last words from the cockpit of a missing Malaysian jet were a standard "Good night Malaysian three seven zero", Malaysian authorities said, changing their account of the critical last communication from a more casual "All right, good night". Malaysia on Tuesday released the full transcript of communications between the Boeing 777 and local air traffic control before it dropped from civilian radar in the early hours of March 8 as it flew from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. The correction comes as Malaysian authorities face heavy criticism, particularly from China, for mismanaging the search, now in its fourth fruitless week, and holding back information. Most of the 239 people on board the flight were Chinese. "There is no indication of anything abnormal in the transcript," Malaysian Acting Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said in the statement, without giving explanation for the changes in the reported last communication. "The transcript was initially held as part of the police investigation," he added. Minutes after the final radio transmission was received the plane’s communications were cut off and it turned back across Peninsular Malaysia and headed towards the Indian Ocean, according to military radar and limited satellite data. The search is now focused on a vast, inhospitable swathe of the southern Indian Ocean west of the Australian city of Perth, but an international team of planes and ships have so far failed to spot any sign of the jetliner. "In this case, the last known position was a long, long way from where the aircraft appears to have gone," retired Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston, the head of the Australian agency coordinating the operation, told reporters in Perth. "It’s very complex, it’s very demanding and we don’t have hard information like we might normally have," he said. Malaysia says the plane was likely diverted deliberately, probably by a skilled aviator, leading to speculation of involvement by one or more of the pilots. Investigators, however, have determined no apparent motive or other red flags among the 227 passengers and 12 crew. The transcript, issued on Tuesday and shared with families of the passengers and crew, covers about 55 minutes of apparently routine conversation, beginning about quarter of an hour before take-off. The last exchange took place at 1:19 a.m. (1719 GMT). Nothing appeared to be wrong, as Malaysian air traffic controllers told the pilots they were entering Vietnamese air space, and received a fairly standard sign-off with call sign in reply. Air Traffic Control: "Malaysian Three Seven Zero contact Ho Chi Minh 120 decimal 9, good night." MH370: "Good night, Malaysian Three Seven Zero." "Previously, Malaysia Airlines had stated initial investigations indicated that the voice which signed off was that of the co-pilot," Transport Minister Hishammuddin said in the statement. "The police are working to confirm this belief, and forensic examination of the actual recording is on-going." Malaysia’s ambassador to China had told Chinese families in Beijing as early as March 12 that the last words from the cockpit had been "All right, good night", which experts said was more informal than called for by standard radio procedures. Search Goes On Nine ships and 10 aircraft resumed the hunt for wreckage from MH370 on Tuesday, hoping to recover more than the fishing gear and other flotsam found since Australian authorities moved the search 1,100 km (685 miles) north after new analysis of radar and satellite data. Houston said the challenging search, in an area the size of Ireland, would continue based on the imperfect information with which they had to work. "But, inevitably, if we don’t find any wreckage on the surface, we are eventually going to have to, probably in consultation with everybody who has a stake in this, review what to do next," he said. Using faint, hourly satellite signals gathered by British firm Inmarsat PLC and radar data from early in its flight, investigators have only estimates of the speed the aircraft was travelling and no certainty of its altitude, Houston said. Satellite imagery of the new search area had not given "anything better than low confidence of finding anything", said Mick Kinley, another search official in Perth. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak will travel to Perth late on Wednesday to see the operation first hand. He was expected to meet Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott on Thursday. Among the vessels due to join the search in the coming days is an Australian defense force ship, the Ocean Shield, that has been fitted with a sophisticated U.S. black box locator and an underwater drone. The post Malaysia Releases Transcript of Last Words From Missing Plane appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Climate Change Responses to Shape Asia’s Future Posted: 01 Apr 2014 10:17 PM PDT A man exercises in the morning as he faces chimneys emitting smoke behind buildings across the Songhua River in China's Jilin province. (Photo: Reuters) YOKOHAMA, Japan — Challenges such as extreme weather, rising seas and worsening scarcity of drinking water are forcing many Asian governments to confront the changes being wrought by a warming planet even as some point to rich Western nations as major culprits. Millions of people in the region have already been displaced by floods and droughts thought related to global warming, a United Nations scientific panel said in a report meant to guide policymakers and form the foundation for a new climate treaty due next year. Experts say Asia and the South Pacific, home to 4.3 billion people or 60 percent of all humankind, faces rising risks from climate change that threaten food security, public health and social order. Scientists who back the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change say there is overwhelming evidence that carbon emissions from industrialization and energy-intensive modern lifestyles have driven an increase in the world's average temperature over the past century. Failed global efforts to significantly reduce emissions means that nations are now focusing efforts on adapting to a hotter earth. Just as colonialism determined much of Asia's past, adapting to profound disruptions from climate change will determine the region's future, said Rajendra Kuma Pachauri, a co-chairman of the climate panel who has spent the past 26 years working on the issue. "We have no choice but to start mitigating for climate change today," he said. Asia's growing economic importance and rapidly urbanizing populations will give it a pivotal role in humanity's handling of climate change, said Saleemul Huq, director of the International Center for Climate Change and Development at the Independent University in Bangladesh. "It's where the population is, it's where the young population is, it's where the growth dynamism will occur in the next few decades," Huq said after the IPCC met in Yokohama to endorse a summary of a 32-volume report. The climate report outlines in unprecedented detail the regional-level threat of conflicts, food shortages, rising deaths from diseases spread through contaminated water and mosquito-borne illnesses such as dengue and malaria. In a region where memories of past famines remain fresh, floods and droughts will likely worsen poverty while pushing food prices and other costs higher, the report said. "There are so many Asian countries that are among the most vulnerable. We've seen so many extreme events hit Asia in recent years," said Kelly Levin, a senior associate at the World Resources Institute. In Burma and Bangladesh, coastal farmlands are tainted by sea water from storm surges and rising sea levels, making soil too saline in key rice-producing regions. In their seas, warming temperatures and rising acidity are killing off tropical coral reefs, endangering vital sources of protein. In Nepal, which accounts for just 0.02 percent of global emissions of greenhouse gases contributing to global warming, fast melting Himalayan glaciers are triggering floods as overburdened dams collapse. "We are not primarily responsible but we are the victims of climate change," said Sandeep Chamling Rai, a Nepalese who is international adaptation coordinator for the World Wildlife Fund. Even in wealthy, industrialized Japan, changing climate is expected to double the risks from floods and deaths due to heat and expand the areas affected by disease-carrying mosquitoes. Assessing the risks for a region with geography that spans alpine plateaus to rainforests is daunting, especially given the lack of research on areas such as central Asia, said Yasuaki Hijioka, a lead author of the Asia section of the report. Asia has not made as much progress as Europe and the United States in assessing risks, Hijioka said. Western countries can draw up policies based on detailed research, he said. "In our case, we can only just show some case studies." Yet Asia is not lagging in adapting to the changes already underway, said Huq of the International Center for Climate Change and Development. Use of renewable energy already is expanding rapidly as countries seek to reduce carbon emissions and to counter the environmental degradation brought on by full-steam-ahead industrialization. Progress is mixed, and it does not always depend on the wealth of the societies involved. Having shut down all its nuclear reactors for checks following the March 2011 disaster in Fukushima, Japan has scaled back its targets for emissions reductions after ramping up use of coal, gas and oil to fire its thermal power plants. Experts at the climate talks praised Bangladesh, one of Asia's poorest nations, for its efforts to reduce flooding risks by capturing silt to raise ground levels in its low-lying coastal areas and for building sturdy, multi-storied storm shelters that are credited with saving many lives from surging sea waters during cyclones. India, the fourth biggest energy consumer and third-largest emitter of carbon, has begun to increase use of renewable energy, doubling its solar generation capacity in 2013, albeit from a modest level, and aiming to generate 15 percent of its power through renewable energy by 2020. China, which years ago overtook the United States as the world's biggest carbon emitter, has swiftly increased its wind and solar power generation, retrofitting older power plants with emissions controls and rapidly expanding its use of nuclear power. Regardless of who is to blame for the legacy of carbon emissions in the industrial world, in Asia policymakers understand that carrying on with business as usual is just too risky. "I think they're on the verge of realizing that's not in their best interest," said Huq. The post Climate Change Responses to Shape Asia's Future appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Anger in China at Brutality in Chemical Plant Protests Posted: 01 Apr 2014 10:10 PM PDT Residents cover their faces as they ride a motorcycle along a street after tear gas was released by police to disperse a protest against a chemical plant project in Maoming, Guangdong province March 31, 2014. The city in southern China which has been the site of violent protests against a proposed chemical plant said it will not go ahead with the project if a majority of residents object to it, as authorities seek to head off more unrest. (Photo: Reuters) BEIJING — Protests against a proposed chemical plant in the southern Chinese province of Guangdong spread to the provincial capital on Tuesday, even as authorities signaled they may back down on construction plans in attempt to head off more unrest. Public anger has grown since graphic photos surfaced on Chinese social networks early this week, showing demonstrators in the nearby city of Maoming—the location of the proposed plant—lying bloodied on the streets as rows of paramilitary police marched in formation. The images of violence—which could not be independently verified by Reuters—have caused an outcry on Chinese social media, though many were later removed by censors. On Sunday, hundreds of Maoming residents poured into the streets protesting against the plant producing paraxylene, a petrochemical used in making fabric and plastic bottles, and environmental degradation. Protesters in the provincial capital, Guangzhou, on Tuesday renewed calls for an end to the chemical plant project, as well as justice for those who they believe were hurt or killed at the hands of paramilitary police on Sunday. The government said no one was killed in demonstrations on Sunday and Monday, and did not mention whether anyone was hurt. Two protesters disputed the claim, telling Reuters that several people were killed and dozens hurt, though they did not know the exact number of casualties. "The provincial government has a responsibility to address this," said one protester by telephone, declining to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter. "It's not right that the paramilitary police can injure or beat people to death. It violates our most basic interests as citizens." Photos obtained by Reuters showed tear gas being fired at demonstrators on Monday. Hundreds demonstrated at Guangzhou's Sun Yat Sen Memorial Hall early in the day, witnesses said, but no more than a few dozen were left by the afternoon. There was no violence during Tuesday's protest, they said, though many police surrounded the demonstration. "We will renew our demands until this matter is resolved – our first goal is for the paraxylene project to be canceled," another demonstrator, surnamed Liang, said by telephone. "Second, we must find out who commanded the murderers to beat people to death—we must know the truth." China's Ministry of Public Security did not respond to requests for comment. Government Vows to Listen In an online statement posted late on Tuesday, the government of Maoming said a timeline had not been set for the project, which is still far from being approved. "We reiterate that this project is still under scientific study, and until the public has reached a full consensus it will not start," it said. The city had previously called the protests a "grave violation" by criminals causing chaos. Maoming police said in a separate statement they would "rigorously safeguard social stability" and pursue "a small number of criminals" who had damaged public property after the city announced its plans for the chemical plant. The plant would be owned by the local government and state-controlled Sinopec Corp, China's biggest refiner. The influential tabloid the Global Times, run by the Communist Party's official People's Daily, said in an editorial on Tuesday that the government had to break the "vicious spiral" of public opposition to PX plants, which were needed to lessen Chinese reliance on imports. The eastern city of Ningbo suspended a petrochemical project after days of demonstrations in November 2012, and protests forced the suspension of a paraxylene plant in the northeastern city of Dalian the year before. A similar demonstration took place in the southern city of Kunming last year. Choking smog blankets many Chinese cities, and environmental degradation, the cost of the country's breakneck economic growth, has earned the ire of an increasingly educated and affluent urban class. The post Anger in China at Brutality in Chemical Plant Protests appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

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