The Irrawaddy Magazine

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• Burma Economy Can Grow 8.5 Percent This Year: IMF
• Festival Cancels Film on Anti-Muslim Violence After Social Media Criticism
• Civil Society Plans ‘Regional People’s Forum’ in Every State, Division
• Burmese Migrant Rights Advocate to Face Thai Court
• Trust Shaken as Burma Army Allegedly Attacks Karen Soldiers
• Two New Airlines Await OK from Burma Investment Body
• Survey Shows Strong Demand to Buy Property in Burma
• 15-Year Drug Eradication Effort Failed: Minister
• Talking Peace, Thinking War
• A Day in the Valley of Darkness
• Cambodian Exodus From Thailand Grows to 160,000
• The War That Never Ends Between the Koreas
• Thai Coup Leaders’ Goal: Democracy on Their Terms

Burma Economy Can Grow 8.5 Percent This Year: IMF Posted: 17 Jun 2014 05:00 PM PDT Laborers work at a construction site in downtown Rangoon. (Photo: Reuters) RANGOON — Burma’s economy should grow 8.5 percent during the current fiscal year, higher than earlier forecast thanks mainly to rising gas production and investment, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday. In January, the IMF predicted that Burma would have 7.7 percent growth during the fiscal year that ends March 2015. The fund left unchanged its forecast that inflation during the fiscal year will be 6.5 percent. Burma has launched sweeping economic and political reforms under its quasi-civilian government, which came to power in 2011 following nearly half a century of military rule. The government has taken moves to attract foreign investment, create jobs and boost the country’s weak infrastructure. The IMF, which set up a monitoring program in Burma in 2013, said it would "intensify" its technical assistance and training. Team leader Matt Davies told Reuters the Central Bank of Burma had undergone "huge change" over the past two years, including gaining independence from the finance ministry and managing a floating exchange rate. Davies welcomed Burma’s decision to allow a handful of foreign banks to begin limited operations after they receive licenses in September. However, he noted that their entry "will place further demands on macroeconomic policy and stretch supervision capacity". Davies said he expects there will be more foreign investment in manufacturing, telecommunications and natural resources. Last year, Burma awarded telecommunications licenses to Qatar’s Ooredoo and Norway’s Telenor. Both companies are building networks throughout the country and are expected to launch service in the main cities within months. In March, Burma awarded contracts to explore and operate offshore oil and gas blocks to companies including Royal Dutch Shell, Statoil, ConocoPhillips and Total. Burma exported $3.7 billion of gas in the fiscal year ended March 2013, up from $3.5 billion a year earlier. Most of the gas went to neighboring Thailand. The post Burma Economy Can Grow 8.5 Percent This Year: IMF appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Festival Cancels Film on Anti-Muslim Violence After Social Media Criticism Posted: 17 Jun 2014 05:21 AM PDT Programs for the international "Human Rights, Human Dignity" film festival that runs from June 15-19 in Rangoon. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — The Human Rights Human Dignity International Film Festival taking place in Rangoon this week has cancelled the screening of a documentary dealing with anti-Muslim violence after social media users criticized the film for being too sympathetic to the plight of Burma's Muslims. The documentary, titled "The Open Sky," follows a woman who visits her Muslim aunt whose house gets burned down during the outburst of anti-Muslim violence in the town of Meikthila in March 2013, which killed more than 40 people and left more than 10,000 people displaced. The film documents the events that took place and how a Buddhist friend helps the aunt during the conflict; it shows the views of the aunt and her friend about the conflict, and their views towards each other. The documentary was scheduled for screening on Monday at Waziyar Cinema and on Tuesday at Junction Cineplex. But on Sunday criticism of the film began to circulate among some Burmese Facebook users, who claimed that it sympathized with Muslims during the conflict. Some alleged it was shot with the financial support of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Min Htin Ko Ko Gyi, the festival founder and director, told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday that the festival's organizing board and juries decided to cancel the film's screening because it appeared to have inflamed lingering Buddhist-Muslim tensions in Rangoon. "We are not holding the film festival to create conflict. We can't let any conflict come in the way, so we removed 'The Open Sky' from our list," he said, adding that he received some Facebook messages with obscene language because of the film's planned screening, but no direct threats. "I feel really sorry about the decision to remove the film. It hurt the feelings [of the filmmakers], the dignity of the institute and also the dignity of film festival. But there is a possibility that [the film] can bring conflict and now the country is in very sensitive state," he said. "All we know is that there is a group that is trying to create conflict in our country. If we can, we should avoid that, so we don't want to take any risks by showing this film." The Human Rights Human Dignity International Film Festival is being held in Rangoon for the second year and is being funded by international donors, such as the British Council, USAID and several foreign embassies. "The Open Sky" is one of 32 Burmese films being screened from June 15-19, together with nine documentaries from other Southeast Asian countries and 26 international films. The film was produced by Kyal Yie Lin Six, Lynnsatt New and Phyo Zayar Kyaw of the Human Dignity Film Institute, which is being headed by Min Htin Ko Ko Gyi. The filmmakers could not be reached for comment on the cancellation of their documentary. "It was filmed according to their ideas. It is one of five films that the Human Dignity Film Institute produced this year after a seven-week workshop," Min Htin Ko Ko Gyi said of "The Open Sky." Burma has been experiencing heightened religious tensions since mid-2012, when deadly violence erupted between Buddhists and Muslims in Arakan State, leaving scores dead and tens of thousands displaced. Last year, anti-Muslim violence spread to more than a dozen towns in central Burma, including Meikthila. The tensions have been fanned by nationalist Buddhist groups such as the 969 movement of monk U Wirathu, who has been openly criticizing any type of support or sympathy for Burma's Muslim minority, while also advocating restrictions on Buddhist-Muslim marriages. In February, three activists, including a leader from the influential 88 Generation Peace and Open Society, were prevented from appearing at literary event in Mandalay after dozens of Buddhist monks protested their inclusion because they are Muslims. The post Festival Cancels Film on Anti-Muslim Violence After Social Media Criticism appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Civil Society Plans ‘Regional People’s Forum’ in Every State, Division Posted: 17 Jun 2014 04:54 AM PDT Participants join the Myanmar People Forum in Rangoon in December, 2013. (Photo: Myanmar People Forum/Facebook) RANGOON — Civil society groups are planning to hold a Regional People's Forum in each state and division in Burma in the coming years, a civil society representative said, adding that the first such forum will be held in Mon State later this month. Kyaw Lin Oo, coordinator of the Myanmar People Forum Working Group, said local civil society members can hold discussions and jointly formulate recommendations for their state at the forums, which they can then present to state authorities and lawmakers. "We aim to hold people's forums to help state governments and the public have a better cooperation, work towards regional development and peace, and to share ideas and give advice to each other," he said, adding that a regional forum would be organized every two months. "We chose to hold the first forum in Mon State because the transportation infrastructure there is good," Kyaw Lin Oo said, adding that the next two forums will be held in Karen and Karenni states. The Mon People's Forum will be held from June 24-27 in Moulmein and include 12 workshops. Some 100 participants representing local communities and civil society groups of all ethnic groups in the state have been invited to attend, while local political parties and armed groups can join as observers. He said the discussions were likely to focus on the public opinion in Mon State about the national political dialogue that is to follow a nationwide ceasefire agreement. Such a dialogue would need to resolve issues such as political autonomy and control over natural resources in ethnic minority areas. In recent months, the Burmese government has held several rounds of talks with an alliance of the major ethnic armed groups, but no nationwide ceasefire accord has been reached yet. Other points of discussions at the forum will be the future repatriation of Karen and Mon refugees living in camps on the Thai-Burma border, while the role of the media, civil society and political parties during Burma's current democratic transition will also be discussed. "Feedback from the discussions will be presented to the state government and parliament at the final day of the forum," Kyaw Lin Oo said. "We want to be like a bridge between the Mon State government, the state parliament and locals and civil society organizations in Mon State." "Local civil society organizations in Mon state will be monitoring whether the state government has implemented their suggestions," he added. The post Civil Society Plans 'Regional People's Forum' in Every State, Division appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Burmese Migrant Rights Advocate to Face Thai Court Posted: 17 Jun 2014 04:31 AM PDT British labor right activist Andy Hall with Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. (Photo: andyjhall.files.wordpress.com) RANGOON — A court in Bangkok is due to rule on Wednesday in a case pitting a Thai fruit company against Andy Hall, a labor rights activist who has helped expose abuses suffered by the sizeable population of Burmese migrant workers in Thailand. Natural Fruit, a Thai firm that processes and exports tinned pineapple and juice concentrate, brought charges against the British national Hall in February 2013, accusing the activist of defamation after he coauthored a report alleging labor rights abuses at a company factory south of Bangkok. The report was published by Finnwatch, a global corporate responsibility watchdog, in January 2013. The company claims the report was false and has filed four civil and criminal charges against Hall, seeking 300 million baht (US$10 million) in damages. The British activist could face up to seven years in prison if found guilty of the criminal charges. Speaking to The Irrawaddy on Tuesday by phone from Bangkok, Hall said he would cooperate with the judicial process, starting with Thai police escorting him to the Attorney General's Office on Wednesday morning. "And then, I may have to go to the court. The court can order to arrest me and then put me into a cell. … What will happen tomorrow is still unclear," he said. "As to whether I get a fair trial in this case, I am very concerned." Wednesday will mark the first time the activist—who has worked in Thailand for years to expose labor abuses among migrants, including Burmese workers—has gone before a court since Natural Fruit filed charges against him last year. Hall moved to work in Rangoon in the aftermath of the charges brought by Natural Fruit, but he returned to Thailand in September in an attempt to resolve the legal row. He said Thai police at the time tried to get him to sign a confession to the charges and, following his refusal to do so, informed him that he would be summoned by a court. "How can they do it without sending evidence to the public prosecutor? It is a very strange system. It is very concerning," he said. Hall urged Natural Fruit to drop the charges, which he described as "completely without reason" and a major hindrance to his ability to advocate on behalf of migrant workers' rights. He defended the Finnwatch report, which was published in January 2013, saying his research was based on the testimonies of migrant worker at the Natural Fruit factory. The Helsinki-based Finnwatch has backed Hall and "sees all legal actions against Andy Hall as an attack against a human rights defender and his freedom of expression," the group said in a press release last month. The post Burmese Migrant Rights Advocate to Face Thai Court appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Trust Shaken as Burma Army Allegedly Attacks Karen Soldiers Posted: 17 Jun 2014 03:31 AM PDT KNLA soldiers on the Salween River, heading to frontline areas in northern Karen State. (Photo: Saw Yan Naing / The Irrawaddy) CHIANG MAI, Thailand — Burmese troops have attacked a group of ethnic Karen soldiers in the country's southeast, leaving one man dead and raising concerns about the government's commitment to a nationwide ceasefire, Karen sources say. The alleged attack on the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) at an outpost in Tenasserim Division comes as the government army continues a much more publicized offensive in the country's far north against the Kachin Independence Army (KIA). About 80 soldiers from the Burma Army attacked more than 10 soldiers from KNLA Brigade 4 on Saturday at a frontline outpost in Dawei Township, Tenasserim Division, according to Saw Tamular, an official with the KNLA's political wing, the Karen National Union (KNU). Citing information from KNLA Brigade 4, he said government troops seized two guns from the Karen soldiers, who belonged to Battalion 11. "They knew we had an outpost there and that our soldiers were there. They asked our troops to raise their hands, and when our soldiers raised their hands, they shot," he told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday. "The one who died was shot three times—at his arm, his eyebrow and his chest. It is clear that they deliberately shot him." The KNU is the oldest ethnic armed group in Burma and has been fighting against the Burmese government for greater autonomy since 1948. After President Thein Sein began a peacemaking program with ethnic groups in 2011, the KNU signed a bilateral ceasefire in 2012. "We have asked our leaders to investigate and solve the problem. It is not fair that we suffer attacks after agreeing to a ceasefire. We want peace," Tamular said. "We have tried to avoid military means, but this will be difficult if they don't avoid it. If our soldiers are attacked and killed repeatedly, we don't guarantee anything." He said lower-rank military officers and soldiers were unhappy about the attacks but wanted KNU leaders and concerned government officials to handle the conflict in an appropriate way. "We want them to solve the problem in a timely manner and to ensure that it won't happen again. This is not the first time they have attacked us," he added, citing a similar attack on Friday without any casualties. He said several months ago government troops also attacked soldiers from KNLA Brigade 4, Battalion 203, along Yay Naunt River. "They shot our soldiers from Battalion 203 on a boat. They said they mistakenly fired. We didn’t report the incident because none of our soldiers died at the time. But this time we lost our soldier, so we reported it to our higher leader," Tamular said. Meanwhile, representatives of the Burmese government-associated Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) met with ethnic leaders from the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) in Chiang Mai, northern Thailand, over the weekend. "They said the government peace team wants to hold another round of talks at the end of this month and sign nationwide ceasefire agreement as soon as possible. But we didn't agree to that because we are not ready. We need to discuss a draft document [of the nationwide ceasefire] with other ethnic leaders," Nai Hong Sar, chairman of the NCCT, told The Irrawaddy. Asked about the government army's alleged attack on KNLA troops in Dawei, he said, "This incident weakens trust that the government had gained from the ethnics." The post Trust Shaken as Burma Army Allegedly Attacks Karen Soldiers appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Two New Airlines Await OK from Burma Investment Body Posted: 17 Jun 2014 02:42 AM PDT Planes taxi on the tarmac and Rangoon International Airport. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — Two new domestic airlines are expecting to get the green light "soon" to begin flying both domestic and regional scheduled routes, according to Win Swe Tun, the director general of Burma's Department of Civil Aviation (DCA). "Both Apex and FMI are waiting for approval from the MIC [Myanmar Investment Commission] to start operating scheduled flights. All documents are in the last stage of approval," Win Swe Tun told The Irrawaddy on Monday. The two prospective carriers, both owned by Burmese business tycoons, will be based in Naypyidaw. Apex Airlines intends to serve the capital, Myeik, Mandalay, Heho, Rangoon, Dawei, Nyaung U and Kawthaung domestically, as well as Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok. Apex is owned by Khin Soe, a businessman with interests in Burma's fishing, hotel, and petroleum industries. A subsidiary of the First Myanmar Investment (FMI) Company has been offering chartered flights, as well as a regular daily service between Rangoon and Naypyidaw, and is looking to expand into scheduled flight services. FMI Air Charter Ltd currently offers chartered flights with two planes—an ATR-42 and Beech 1900-D—rented from state-run Myanma Airways. FMI was established in the early 1990s as part of SPA Myanmar, a conglomerate of more than 40 businesses owned by the Burmese business tycoon Serge Pun. A staffer at the office of the FMI management team told The Irrawaddy that the airline could not yet say when it expected to have scheduled flights on offer. "We will announce officially when we start to operate," she said. In February, Mann Yadanarpon Airlines became the latest operational entry into Burma's increasingly crowded domestic airline industry. The airline currently offers commercial flights to Rangoon, Mandalay, Nyaung U, Heho, Kengtung, Tachiliek and Myitkyina. The Mandalay-based carrier became Burma's eighth domestic airline in operation. "As international visitors are coming into Burma, domestic airlines are seeing demand in the market. More visitors means more demand, that's why new domestic airlines are looking to invest in this market," Win Swe Tun said. "It's sure they won't turn a profit initially, but in terms of the long-term investment, as international airlines are coming here, visitors will take domestic airlines as well," he said. Domestic market players currently include Air Bagan, Air KBZ, Asian Wings Airways, Air Mandalay, Myanma Airways, Yangon Airways, Golden Myanmar Airlines and Mann Yadanarpon Airlines. Myanmar Airways International serves as Burma's international flag carrier and 24 other international airlines are currently operating in the country, according to the DCA. "Many international airlines are interested in coming to Burma. The DCA is going to agree with France on a Memorandum for Understanding [MoU] this week," Win Swe Tun said without elaborating, adding that a new code-sharing arrangement between Bangkok Airways and Air France was making it easier for European travelers to visit Burma. The post Two New Airlines Await OK from Burma Investment Body appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Survey Shows Strong Demand to Buy Property in Burma Posted: 17 Jun 2014 01:56 AM PDT Rangoon's landmark Shwedagon Pagoda can be seen in the distance from a Yadanar Myaing construction site on the Kandawgyi ring road. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — An international property portal has found that three quarters of visitors to its website in Burma want to buy property, though real estate agents in the country's biggest city say the desire to rent is still strong. In a survey conducted over the past year, 75 percent of more than 100,000 visitors to House.com.mm, the local version of international property portal Lamudi, said they wanted to purchase and own property. "As the local real estate market grows and strengthens, more and more of our customers are looking to invest in their own property. We have seen a great increase in people opting to buy rather than rent, particularly with older generations who want to purchase their first home and settle down in Myanmar [Burma]," Michael Bakker, the Burma country manager for House.com.mm, said in a statement earlier this month. He said that as Rangoon and Naypyidaw continued to grow, with infrastructure development and the construction of new commercial and residential properties, he expected to see rising demand for real estate in both cities. However, real estate agents in Rangoon said rental properties were still in demand. "High-end properties are available to rent for foreigners in Rangoon—that's why renting is more common than purchasing," Zaw Zaw, the senior manager of Unity real estate agency, told The Irrawaddy. "I do not agree with this survey that renting is less common than purchasing. Especially in Rangoon and Mandalay, the renting rate is still 85 percent of the total real estate market." He said there was a growing demand among foreigners to rent in the country's biggest city. Foreigners working for UN agencies, embassies, international NGOs and businesses prefer to rent condominiums and high-end apartments because they still cannot afford to buy, he said. Still, renting poses its own challenges. Rental costs can be high, and it can be difficult to find high-end properties with no connection to cronies or members of the former military regime. The renting rates in Rangoon have been significantly increasing over the past three years. Fully furnished condos in Dagon Township, near the downtown area, are renting for US$3,000 per month, while the popular Shwe Hintha luxury condominium in Kamaryut Township is renting for about twice that rate. In rural areas, properties are less expensive and more affordable for ownership, Zaw Zaw added. "I think the survey is calculated for the whole country. If they looked at rural areas, purchasing is more common than renting," he said. The survey did not examine how many clients had actually purchased property, but rather how many hoped to do so. The post Survey Shows Strong Demand to Buy Property in Burma appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

15-Year Drug Eradication Effort Failed: Minister Posted: 16 Jun 2014 10:13 PM PDT A poppy flower grows at an opium plantation in Shan State. (Photo: Kyaw Kha / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — A Home Affairs minister has told Parliament that despite a 15-year nationwide drug eradication project opium production in Burma has continued to rise, adding that there will be a five-year project extension in order to eradicate the crop. Brig-Gen. Kyaw Kyaw Tun, deputy minister of Home Affairs, said during a Lower House meeting on Monday that after the initial success of the government project, which began in 1999, the opium crop bounced back and expanded. "Since the onset of the 15-year project in 1999, we saw a drop in the growth until 2006, but it has increased since 2007," he said in a response to a question raised by Win Myint, a lawmaker from Pathein, state-owned newspaper The Mirror reported. The remarks of the deputy minister are in line with the findings of the annual reports by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), which have warned that the area under opium in Burma has been on the rise for six consecutive years. Kyaw Kyaw Tun said the government has collaborated with the UNODC since 2002 to monitor opium growing inside the country, adding that last year an estimated 57,800 hectare was under poppy cultivation. In 2012 and 2011, more than 51,000 hectare and more than 43,600 hectare, were used for opium cultivation, respectively, he told the Lower House. Kyaw Kyaw Tun said the government's 15-year drug elimination project, which set a goal of eradicating all opium by 2014, finished in March this year. The government has now extended the project with another five years and will focus on eradicating poppy in 51 townships in major opium growing areas in Shan, Kachin, Kayah and Chin States. The post 15-Year Drug Eradication Effort Failed: Minister appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Talking Peace, Thinking War Posted: 16 Jun 2014 05:30 PM PDT Karen National Liberation Army soldiers head by boat to on the Thanlwin River to a frontline area in May 2014. (Photo: Saw Yan Naing / The Irrawaddy) PAPUN TOWNSHIP, Kayin State — More than three years after Myanmar's quasi-civilian government assumed power and made plans for a nationwide ceasefire a centerpiece of its bid for international acceptance, the country is no closer to peace, and could soon descend once again into civil war. This grim assessment of the situation in Myanmar's border regions, where ethnic armed groups have long fought central control, is supported by evidence that both government and rebel forces are girding for war, even as they continue to engage in talks that are moving no closer to a compromise acceptable to the opposing sides. While international stakeholders remain hopeful and largely oblivious to the tensions on the ground, those with the most at stake—the people who live in areas that would be thrown into turmoil by a resumption of war—are growing ever more pessimistic. After decades of war, ethnic armed groups and local civilians say they want peace, but don't believe the government is really interested in finding a solution that would permanently end conflict. "We all want peace, but we want a kind of peace real enough that we can sleep at night and not worry about our physical and cultural extinction in the morning," said Gen. Baw Kyaw Heh, the vice commander-in-chief of the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA). The KNLA's political wing, the Karen National Union (KNU), began its struggle for ethnic Kayin autonomy in 1949, and has never come closer to ending its struggle with Myanmar's government than it is today. But as negotiations with the administration of President U Thein Sein fail to reach a lasting settlement, its faith in the peace process is fading fast. "The way the government is trying to secure peace with the ethnic minorities is not sustainable in the long term. It can break down anytime, and when it does, it will even be worse," said Gen. Baw Kyaw Heh. "The government will also face a much worse situation," he added, warning that Naypyitaw also has a great deal to lose if it doesn't live up to the expectations raised by promises of peace. War Games Warning As the U Thein Sein administration continues to talk up the peace talks, both the government army and the ethnic armed groups appear to be betting that it is only a matter of time before they are back on a war footing. While their leaders meet across the negotiating table, all parties have been busy beefing up their military positions and recruiting new foot soldiers. Myanmar's military leaders have been especially keen to demonstrate their battle-readiness. In late February, they staged a well-publicized live-fire military exercise dubbed the "Anawrahta war games," after the founder of the 11th-century Bagan Empire. British security analyst Anthony Davis, writing in Asia Times Online, noted that the games "involved a panoply of military power centered on mechanized infantry of the Magway-based 88th Light Infantry Division using indigenously produced Ukrainian armored personnel carriers and Chinese infantry fighting vehicles." According to Mr. Davis, "The infantry was supported by intense firepower from main battle tanks, a range of artillery systems including multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), 105mm and 155mm howitzers, and close air support in the shape of rocket-firing Mi-35 helicopter gunships and low-flying MiG-29 air superiority fighters." Asked what he thought of this show of military might, the KNLA's Gen. Baw Kyaw Heh dismissed the government's insistence that it was primarily concerned with "external threats." "The actual threat is very much domestic. The problems are domestic and institutional. In fact, they [the government] want to show off their military capacity to ethnic groups. It is a sort of threat to ethnic armed groups," he said. Lessons Learned? While the international community hails the current round of ceasefire talks as a major step toward long-term stability, many inside the country fear that any peace achieved will be temporary at best. One reason that hope seems so elusive is that Myanmar has been here before. In the 1990s, the country's then military rulers succeeded in bringing several armed groups "into the legal fold"—most notably, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), which signed a deal to stop fighting in 1994. But while this agreement brought some relief to local civilian populations caught in the crossfire, it left many issues unresolved, and in 2011, the ceasefire collapsed completely and quickly turned into a brutal conflict that continues to this day. Ashley South, a longtime observer of Myanmar's ethnic conflicts who works as a consultant for the Myanmar Peace Support Initiative, a Norwegian government-backed international peace advocacy group, acknowledged that the current offensives against the KIA, as well as the government army's apparent unwillingness to accept ethnic armed groups' key demands, are a major concern. "I do not believe the peace process can be sustainable unless there is a political settlement which includes ethnic demands for a renegotiation of state-society relations, along federal lines," he said. He added that there was also a danger that "international donors and aid agencies are increasingly working in conflict-affected areas, in ways which promote the government agenda, without adequately consulting local communities, civil society actors and ethnic armed groups." Despite these concerns, however, Mr. South said he believed the international community should continue to support "the existing ceasefires and emerging peace process." Worse than Before If civil war does break out again, ethnic observers warn that it won't be confined to remote ethnic areas, and could be even worse than anything the country has seen to date. Growing unity among the armed groups, they say, would mean a nationwide conflict that would not spare Myanmar's cities. Meanwhile, the KNLA and other armed groups say they are bracing for a government army offensive that could come at any time—perhaps as soon as this summer, or early next year, ahead of elections whose outcome could be determined in large part by the government's success in reaching a nationwide ceasefire agreement. As the ethnic armed groups step up their recruitment efforts, military training and exchanges with each other, the government army is planning offensives against the KNLA's Brigades 5 and 2, according to intelligence intercepted by the KNLA from satellite networks. Like the offensive against the KIA stronghold of Laiza in late 2012 and early 2013, the assault on the "hardline" KNLA brigades (which have resisted a ceasefire agreement) will involve airpower, KNLA sources say. The government army has set up helicopter landing pads and stockpiled rocket launchers and artillery shells at frontline bases in northern Kayin State near where Brigade 5 and 2 are based. Similar activities by the government army have also been reported in Kachin State and Shan State. According to a wide range of ethnic sources from Kachin State in the north to Kayin State in the south, both ethnic and government forces are on high alert. In the case of the ethnic armed groups, that means maintaining regular contact with each other and preparing to fight if any of them come under attack. A Role Model While Myanmar's ethnic armed groups band together in anticipation of resumed fighting, many now see the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the most heavily armed among them, as an example worth emulating. The UWSA is not just the most formidable fighting force in the country outside of the government army; it also controls an autonomous region that functions like a totally independent state, complete with its own civil administration and police force. More importantly, perhaps, it has its own weapons factories, producing mostly AK47 rifles that it is happy to supply to other armed groups. It has also taught the smaller groups how to make weapons of their own and helped them purchase arms on the black market. All of this is necessary, the ethnic armed groups believe, because government troops continue to reinforce their positions in ethnic areas despite repeated calls for their withdrawal as a condition for agreeing to a ceasefire. For most, this is a clear sign that the talks now taking place are little more than a stalling tactic. "We must be ready for anything," said Saw Der Lwe, a KNLA soldier. "Even if there is a ceasefire, we don't know how long it will last. They [the government army] could do anything, suddenly and without warning." This article first appeared in the June 2014 issue of The Irrawaddy magazine. The post Talking Peace, Thinking War appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

A Day in the Valley of Darkness Posted: 16 Jun 2014 05:00 PM PDT The first day of a trek to the north of Ledo Road from Tanai. (Photo: Andrzej Muszynski) HUKAWNG VALLEY, Kachin State — Hukawng Valley is like Burma in miniature, a place where the entire country's problems are concentrated. 8 am: The mist is the last to get up in the town of Tanai. Long before it rises, you can hear the roar of engines and human conversation. It's cold and people are putting on hats. As the mist descends, it drums on the roofs like hail. That's why the locals call it snow. It's always here, every day. First the mist obscures the road, which two years ago was laid with asphalt. But the asphalt ends just outside town. The road eastward leads to Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin State, which from here is a bumpy seven-hour ride away. To the west the road leads across the territory of the Naga people—until recently, notorious headhunters—all the way to the Indian border at Pangsau Pass. Beyond the town of Shinbwayang, the road becomes a steep mountain path, which can be traveled on an off-road motorbike or by foot. Ledo Road was built by Americans during World War II to connect China and India overland. The workers building it died en masse of malaria, which is why this place was known as the Valley of Death. More recently it has gained a new nickname, the Valley of Darkness. Nowadays lorries run along the red, dusty road, as do luxury jeeps and, acting as long-distance taxis, dust-caked 40-year-old Mercedes cars. A few weeks before my trip, a driver pulled over, got out to relieve himself and was blown sky high after stepping on a land mine. Motorbikes cruise around the town of Tanai, bypassing the elephants that parade down the middle of the road. Once the mist starts to clear, you get a better view of the faces: ethnic Shan, Naga, Kachin, Bamar, Indian and Lisu people. Houses come into view, clustered near the road. Many of them are new white villas and hotels, where it's hard to get a room without a reservation, or shops selling expensive amber jewelery. There's also a new teashop, run for the past two years by a young Muslim man. There's a large television screen on the teashop wall, always showing football matches or boxing. The waiters serve a tasty breakfast and fresh coffee. By the time the mist has completely lifted, the restaurant is full of men. Tanai's most important representatives of authority come to eat here, including policemen, immigration officers and administrators, as well as the head of the Elephant Keepers Union. The teashop also acts as a local press agency of sorts, a focal point for swapping rumors. The gossip circulating during my visit appears to be bad news for the Muslim owner: Local Buddhists accuse him of corrupting civil servants, who eat at his shop for free, by promising to lay asphalt on the road to Tanai in exchange for the right to build a mosque. The Buddhists say they worry he will bring more Muslims to the town—a concern that is likely unfounded, although it highlights the ongoing religious tensions throughough Burma. By the time breakfast is over, the mountains can be seen in the distance, surrounding the entire valley in a vast ring. Wild jungle stretches in every direction, criss-crossed by a labyrinth of rivers. Buddhist monks wander down the streets collecting alms. The men get up from their tables and leave. Many of them have Christian crosses hanging on their chests. Only one man is left watching the television in the teashop. 11 am: On his athletic body, he usually wears a leather jacket and a striped sleeveless T-shirt, sometimes a peaked cap. His leg twitches nervously, a sort of tick. He watches a boxing match on television, looking as if he'd like to lay one on someone himself. He doesn't need to go to work. He gives orders over his mobile phone. These gadgets have appeared in Tanai only recently, with the transition from military rule. This man is the "elephant king," head of the Elephant Keepers Union in Tanai. In Burma the white elephant is a symbol of power. According to locals, there are still four groups of elephants in the Hukawng Valley, each consisting of about 25 animals. In Tanai itself, about 100 are kept. This is the exclusive occupation of the Shan. Some of the elephants are born in enclosures, but most are caught wild in the jungle and domesticated. There are several trainers in Tanai, who start to learn their profession during childhood. They know how to lure an elephant in the forest by singing, and then they catch it with a lasso. Their expeditions last for several weeks. Sometimes the hunters come back injured. Male elephants are lethally dangerous during the cold season when they secrete musth, a sort of liquid secretion, from a gland near their eyes. The secretion coincides with a rise in testosterone that can make them go beserk, trampling houses and raping female elephants. One policeman in Tanai lost a house that way. Usually the locals tie an elephant in musth to a tree with a chain. Some elephants take months to calm. A single elephant can sell for as much as US$40,000, and they are mainly bought by the Thais. The elephant keepers pay a tax per elephant of $100 dollars for three years. The elephants work tirelessly in the dry season on timber felling, transport and agriculture. Several years ago, when gold fever in the valley had grown weaker, new deposits of precious amber were found. The largest amber mine in the area is situated four hours' march south of Tanai. For the elephant keepers, it's a highly lucrative business. The men in the teashop have gone into the forest. To find elephants, they listen for bells attached to the animals' necks. Then they saddle up. The sun starts to get hot as they set off for the mine, south from Ledo Road, and disappear into the trees on the far side of the river. A few years ago a sensational piece of news went around the media. Scientists from Oregon State University showed the world a photograph of the oldest conflict ever: a spider trapped in amber just as it was attacking a wasp, 110 million years ago. At the teashop, they say this amber came from near Tanai, and a Chinese buyer purchased it from a local businessman. 2 pm: It's the afternoon, and a policeman is opening the door of an office where the tiger reserve wardens were once based. The mouldy walls are crumbling now, and broken tables lay on the floor. The policeman uses a stick to push aside a picture hanging on the wall, and  bats fly out from behind it. I duck. On the wall there's a large map of the Hukawng Valley, the biggest tiger reserve in the world. It was founded in 2001 on the initiative of American naturalist Alan Rabinowitz from the Wildlife Conservation Society, which ran training programs for the wardens. The policeman took part in these programs. According to estimates from 2010, about 50 tigers live in the reserve. But for the past four years, nobody has been counting the animals or working at the reserve. These days, it's a pretence. The policeman draws a line on the map about five miles north of Ledo Road. It represents the border beyond which not even the elephant trainers have ventured for four years, because the terrain has been occupied by the Kachin Independence Army (the KIA), an ethnic armed force hostile to the government. Customers at the teashop make a number of allegations against KIA soldiers, who are described as unwelcomed kings of the valley. They accuse the soldiers of dredging gold, extracting amber and chopping down timber by the ton, in addition to trading in opium, and stealing elephants and food. KIA officers allegedly use the money from their illegal businesses to build villas for themselves in Myitkyina, so for them peace doesn't pay. There was a lot of noise in the media about the battle for Laiza in January 2013. But nobody knows what's happening in Hukawng. Land mines keep most travelers far away. In the jungle, I am told, the KIA post watchtowers on the hills and live at base camps, which look like ordinary villages. They dress in civilian clothes and work on farms. They keep their weapons underground or in stores. They come down to the villages for recruits. After several weeks the young boys are sent back to their families. They're called again when fighting breaks out. Only the Lisu, another of Burma's ethnic minorities, are believed to know the location of the KIA camps. And only the Lisu are superior to the Kachin in the art of jungle survival. 5 pm: The sun is setting over the valley, gilding the idle course of the rivers. The Lisu are coming home to their villages from the farms. They alone are not afraid to live north of Ledo Road, though they avoid encounters with the KIA. Still, they claim to steal food from KIA camps. They are also known as the best hunters in the jungle, unrivaled by even the Naga.  They venture to remote peaks on the horizon, beyond which extends the Putao plain. Their villages spring out of the jungle unexpectedly. Formerly, in the middle of a thicket, you might have come upon the occasional small opium farm. After work, at dusk, men stuff opium into wooden holders filled with water and inhale the smoke, holding their breath. They do it again and again; opium can soothe any pain. More than 30 years ago, the first Lisu family arrived in one of the villages from Putao in search of a better life. The flat terrain and heavenly colors of the vast Hukawng Valley were tempting, so they sold their farms in Putao along with all their oxen. It was not easy after the move. Wardens at the tiger reserve took away their guns, promising money in exchange. The Lisu signed the wardens' documents, but the wardens disappeared without paying. Still, many Lisu acquired new rifles, which they continue to keep illegally. Without guns, they cannot defend their enclosures. The Lisu are allegedly responsible for wiping out all the tigers and elephants in Hkakabo Razi Park to the north of Putao—some Lisu have even admitted to hunting them previously, although they are believed to have stopped now. In the past they smuggled out the skins and organs and sold them to the Chinese. Now they're left with no livelihood. Many Lisu appear to loathe both the government and the KIA, both of whom attempt to take away their control of the forest. Sometimes the Lisu come down to Tanai and pass the teashop. They say they have only experienced one benefit from the political opening in Burma: On the bridge on Ledo Road, which leads to Tanai, nobody has been checking their IDs for the past year. In the past, if they did not have an identity card, they had to pay a bribe. 8 pm: The mist is the first to lie down in Tanai. For a long time afterward, you can still hear the roar of engines and human chatter. There's a full moon, which is casting a silvery light on the backs of the oxen. At night there's lively traffic on Ledo Road. That's when the timber, amber, gold and precious stones are transported to Myitkyina and onward to China. At the checkpoints, the smugglers pay bribes, as everybody knows.  But rumors at the teashop suggest there will be friction in the future because the road to Myitkyina is guarded by Burmese soldiers. The men at the teashop move across to a bar, where they start to drink alcohol. Everything is imported from Myitkyina or India, and it's often too expensive for locals to buy. When I arrive to join them late in the evening, they say I am the first foreigner they have seen in seven years. A policeman and immigration officer show up before I've had a chance to sit down. Tomorrow, once the mist rises, I plan to travel north of Ledo Road on an elephant's back, to Lisu villages, although authorities in Tanai have refused to consent to the trip. In the morning, before the mist has lifted to unveil the mountains, they change their minds. This article was translated from Polish to English by Antonia Lloyd-Jones. The post A Day in the Valley of Darkness appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Cambodian Exodus From Thailand Grows to 160,000 Posted: 16 Jun 2014 10:05 PM PDT Cambodian migrants look through grills of a truck as they wait to cross the Thai-Cambodia border at Aranyaprathet in Sa Kaew June 15, 2014. (Photo: Reuters) PHNOM PENH — The number of Cambodians who have returned home from Thailand this month after a threatened crackdown on foreigners working illegally has topped 160,000, a Cambodian official said Monday. Cambodian Foreign Ministry spokesman Koy Kuong said the workers returned through several border crossings, with the one connecting the town of Poipet with Thailand’s Aranyaprathet accounting for 142,000. Thai officials insist the cross-border movement is voluntary and is not forced repatriation. They say Thai military and government resources were used to transport workers who decided to return home after being laid off because they were working illegally. Other workers assumed they were being forced out and rumors arose they were being abused, triggering the mass exodus, they say. The numbers rose last week when rumors — unsubstantiated so far — spread that Thai soldiers had killed as many as nine Cambodians and threatened and beaten others. Thailand announced it would crack down on foreigners working illegally after the army took power in a May 22 coup. Cambodian rights groups say Thai authorities are coercing the Cambodians to go home and abusing them. Considerably more than 200,000 Cambodians are estimated to be working in Thailand, most illegally. Thai Foreign Ministry spokesman Sek Wannamethee told The Associated Press on Monday that allegations that Thailand was deporting migrant workers were "unfounded’ and that they were leaving voluntarily, "facilitated by the Thai side in terms of transportation to the border checkpoints." One Cambodian worker contacted by phone in Poipet, where he arrived from Thailand on Monday, told a slightly different story. Chem Cheda, 20, said he had been part of a construction crew in Samut Prakarn, a booming suburb of Thailand’s capital, working illegally. He said he enjoyed the job, for which he made 9,000 baht ($300) a month. On Friday, he said, Thai soldiers — he believed they were military police — came to his workplace and talked to the Thai manager. The manager then informed the employees that all Cambodians who were working illegally must return home by order of the military. "When I first heard this from the owner, I felt OK, I didn’t feel scared or afraid," he said. "But when I saw the soldiers approach me, I felt scared. I decided then to go with them straightaway, without complaint." He said the soldiers did not mistreat him, and took him to a railway station, from where he was transported to the border. Chem Cheda said he plans to apply to return to work legally in Thailand. Thailand’s military government says it is working on a plan to create a systematic legal framework for foreign workers. Because of its relative wealth, Thailand attracts many migrants from neighboring countries, especially Myanmar, who are seeking a better life. But only Cambodians are currently leaving in large numbers, Thai Foreign Ministry spokesman Sek said. The post Cambodian Exodus From Thailand Grows to 160,000 appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

The War That Never Ends Between the Koreas Posted: 16 Jun 2014 09:52 PM PDT Anti-landing spikes placed by the South Korean military are seen on the beach on the island of Baengnyeong, which lies near the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea. (Photo: Reuters / Damir Sagolj) YEONPYEONG, South Korea — On a clear day, residents of Yeonpyeong Island can see North Korea, 10 kms (six miles) away. They can also sometimes watch South Korean warships chase North Korean and Chinese fishing boats. These waters in the Yellow Sea are among the world's richest for blue crab. Lately, however, North Korea has been making life riskier for residents of this fishing community. On May 22, they were ordered into bomb shelters after the North fired artillery shells around the island, without hitting anything. Earlier that week, the South Korean navy fired 10 warning shots at North Korean ships after they crossed the maritime boundary between the two sides. The line was drawn up unilaterally by the US-led United Nations command after the 1950-53 Korean War. That conflict ended in an armed truce that has continued until now, leaving the two Koreas in a technical state of war. Tensions are especially high along the string of five South Korean islands that define the maritime frontier, known as the "Northern Limit Line" (NLL). Lately, the area has seen a sharp increase in artillery exchanges between the two Koreas. North Korea doesn't recognize the NLL. The line is not recognized internationally, either. North Korea warships and fishing boats routinely sail over the line, which commands strategic sea lanes into the industrial heartland of both Koreas. This has led to a spate of sea battles and artillery exchanges over the last 15 years. The movements of foreign media are restricted on the militarily sensitive islands. A recent Reuters visit found the chase scenes between the South Korean navy and Chinese fishing boats are practically a daily occurrence. The North Korean military has been making money for years selling Chinese ships the rights to fish in the area, the South Korean coast guard and local officials on the island say. The disputed maritime frontier, the economic and strategic importance of the area, and a history of violent confrontations have made these otherwise sleepy islands one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints—one that could drag in the United States and China as parties to the armistice. "The West Sea boundary is the weakest link in the chain that holds the two Koreas from outright conflict, and the regular appearance of a third party—Chinese fishermen—adds a destabilizing element into an already volatile mix," said John Delury, assistant professor at Yonsei University in Seoul. Delury added that "the dangers of entangling the US and China are also very real, at a time when they already have enough maritime disputes to worry about in the East and South China Seas." A Fraught History The Korean War ended roughly where it started—near the 38th parallel. The armistice of Aug. 30, 1953, stipulated that both sides withdraw their forces two kilometers from there to form a Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). It remains the world's most heavily-fortified frontier. Extending the line out to the Yellow Sea was far more problematic due to the jagged coastline and a sprawl of islands and islets, and the two sides failed to agree on one. So a month after the armistice was signed, United Nations Commander Mark Clark, a US four-star general, drew a line in the sea to keep southern warships from straying too far north and to reduce the likelihood of sea clashes. The South Koreans have always regarded the NLL as a seaward extension of the DMZ and a de facto boundary between North and South Korea. "The NLL, however, has no legal basis in international law," according to a CIA document declassified in 1974. A US Embassy spokeswoman in Seoul did not directly address the question of the line's international legality when asked for comment. "For 60 years, the Northern Limit Line has served as a practical measure to separate military forces in the Yellow Sea and to reduce tensions and the risks of military confrontation," she said. North Korea, however, has long declared a 12-nautical mile territorial sea limit in the area—one that includes the five islands. In recent years, it has been more forceful about that claim. In June 1999 and June 2002, clashes between North and South Korean warships erupted at the start of the crab fishing season. A South Korean patrol boat sank and a North Korean boat was heavily damaged in the 2002 incident. After that, the two sides began talking about joint fishing areas in a "West Coast Peace Zone," which was eventually agreed at an inter-Korean summit in October 2007. The pact unraveled, however, in a fire storm of protest by conservative lawmakers in the South and was never implemented. The election of a conservative government in the South the following year and North Korea's leadership succession have marked a steady worsening of ties. In one of the worst incidents since the Korean War, North Korea lobbed 170 shells at Yeonpyeong Island in November 2010, about half of them landing on civilian and military targets. Two civilians and two South Korean soldiers were killed. Only days before, North Korea revealed to a visiting American scholar a vast new uranium enrichment facility. Over the next three years, North Korea embarked on a series of long-range missile and nuclear tests. On March 30 of this year, Pyongyang publicly announced it would not rule out "a new form of nuclear test." Analysts speculated that could mean a nuclear warhead capable of being carried by a ballistic missile. The Island War Zone The cliff tops of Yeonpyeong Island offer an unrivalled vantage point to watch the cat-and-mouse games between the Koreas on the high seas. During the Reuters visit, two South Korean navy patrol boats and a corvette, horns and sirens blaring, pushed a group of Chinese fishing boats back over the NLL. The fishing boats are often accompanied by North Korean naval escort vessels, island residents say. Artillery emplacements and long-range Hyunmoo-1 cruise missiles, capable of striking the North Korean capital of Pyongyang, are stationed atop the cliffs. Near one unguarded cruise missile, a reporter found boxes containing US made parts for an early warning system that listens for the sound of artillery. Tanks, dug into deep sandbag-lined bunkers, face the North Korean coast. On the beaches below, rows of anti-landing spikes and barbed wire fences frame small coves. Debris from fishing boats and ships lie between machine gun emplacements. Signs warn the public not to approach objects that look like mines. Around 9,500 residents live on four of the islands. A fifth island has only a military garrison on it. One resident of Baengnyeong Island, the largest of the five, described their home as akin to "a powder keg brimming with weapons, arms, explosives and mines." An Ear for Artillery The sound of artillery has become so familiar to residents of the islands that local school children grow up learning to pinpoint whether it is the North or South Korean military that's conducting firing drills. For Choi Sung-il, now head of the Yeonpyeong Island Residents' Association, the distant rumble of cannons used to be something of a comfort. "When I was little, the sound of artillery was like a lullaby to me," he said. "But since the 2010 bombing, every time I hear the sounds of gunfire or artillery during military exercises, I start to feel jittery." Recently, residents have discovered crashed North Korean surveillance drones on the islands, bearing digital photos of South Korean military positions. On Yeonpyeong, Reuters saw South Korean sailors armed with a portable anti-aircraft missile system tracking a small, remote-controlled plane in what military officials confirmed was a counter-drone drill. Residents say they have seen more South Korean marines on the island since the shelling in 2010. They also say the military has been buying up more and more land on the island. Shin Soon-ja, 72, owns a grape farm within the grounds of a large South Korean marine base on Yeonpyeong. "Before the shelling [in 2010], I didn't go to the bomb shelters," she said, turning the earth on a bed of garlic with her hands. "I feel disappointed with the North Koreans. Kim Jong-un is vicious," she said, referring to Pyongyang's young leader, the third generation of his family to rule the totalitarian state. Kim Jong-un raised eyebrows in 2012 when he visited North Korean islands on the northern side of the NLL, the first North Korean leader to do so. According to a report on the visit by the North's Korean Central Television, Kim issued stark orders to soldiers defending the northern islands. If a South Korean shell lands in their waters, he was quoted as saying, the northern soldiers "should launch a fatal counter-attack immediately, and not confine it to a local war of the southwestern front, but develop it into a sacred war for national reunification." Chinese Boats Im Byung-chul, 68, cultivates corn, red peppers and potatoes in a field on Yeonpyeong Island that he's been farming for over 25 years. For Im, the line of Chinese fishing boats he can see in the waters beyond his farm is more of a barometer of safety, than a threat. "Look, there are lots of Chinese boats, about 11. When there are some significant events or issues in North Korea, I don't see any Chinese boats. I think I must be safe from artillery if the Chinese boats are there." Local South Korean coast guard officials said Chinese fishermen pay upwards of US$11,000 a month to fish in the waters to the North Korean forces that guard the NLL and North Korea's west coast. "This is how the North Korean 4th Army Corps makes a living," said the official, who requested anonymity. Asked about this, South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman Noh Kwang-il said it was illegal for Chinese fishermen to work in those waters. "In that regard, so far we have requested China via multiple diplomatic channels to prevent illegal fishing activities. And the Chinese side has been expressing its understanding." China's Foreign Ministry would only say that Beijing views the NLL as a dispute between the two Koreas. "As a close neighbor of the Korean peninsula, China has all along supported the resolution of the relevant dispute via dialogue and consultations between North and South Korea," the ministry said in a statement. Despite the ever-present danger of artillery shells landing in their midst, residents of the islands hold out a quixotic hope: attracting adventure tourists. "As we can see the North with the naked eye, what we are asking the government is to make this place as a security tourism spot," said Choi Sung-il, the Yeonpyeong Island Residents' Association chief. "We keep proposing the government to make some infrastructure so people and students can have experiences related to the security when they come to Yeonpyeong." Plans so far have fallen "short of expectation," he said. The post The War That Never Ends Between the Koreas appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Thai Coup Leaders’ Goal: Democracy on Their Terms Posted: 16 Jun 2014 09:32 PM PDT Soldiers take up a position along a street near a pro-government 'red shirt' supporters' encampment in Nakhon Pathom province on the outskirts of Bangkok on May 22, 2014. (Photo: Reuters / Chaiwat Subprasom) BANGKOK — From the day Thailand's military coup leader seized power last month, he has promised unspecified reforms to restore stability and return to civilian rule and democracy. Yet, Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha has mentioned a striking obstacle to a "fully functional democracy"—elections. According to the general, elections themselves have contributed to years of bitter political division and sometimes-violent street protests in Thailand. The military says intractable turmoil forced it to step in and topple a government for the second time in a decade. "We need to solve many issues, from administration to the budget system to corruption," Prayuth said in a recent radio address, "And even the starting point of democracy itself — the election." He continued, "Parliamentary dictatorship has to be removed. All these have caused conflict and unhappiness among Thai people." The statement was the strongest sign yet of what many analysts suspect is the true aim of the May 22 coup: limiting the impact of future elections in Thailand by relying more on appointed institutions or some other formula to limit majority rule. The elected government led by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was weakened by six months of often massive protests and a succession of court rulings. Anti-government protesters blocking polling places and a subsequent court ruling scuttled February elections that Yingluck's party had been widely expected to win. Opponents of the ousted government are intent on removing the influence of Yingluck's brother, Thaksin Shinawatra, the billionaire former prime minister who was himself ousted in a 2006 military coup. He has lived in self-imposed exile for years to avoid serving time for corruption charges he says were politically motivated, and it was a proposal to grant him amnesty that sparked the protests against his sister's government. Thaksin's supporters have won every election since 2001, to the ire of many in Thailand who see him as a corrupt demagogue who abuses power and buys votes with populist promises. The general didn't explain what he meant by "parliamentary dictatorship," nor has he elaborated on any specifics of reforms, but he made clear his opinion that the current electoral system was not working. "They always say 'reform,' and what does 'reform' mean? At one level, it means get rid of Thaksin, his people and control his power base," said Thongchai Winichakul, a Thai scholar and professor of history at the University of Wisconsin. Support for Thaksin is strongest among poorer, rural Thais, particularly in the country's north and northeast. His opponents are concentrated in Bangkok and the south, and are more likely to be wealthy or middle-class. "In their view, people keep electing the wrong government. There is the core of it," said Duncan McCargo, professor of Southeast Asian Politics at Britain's University of Leeds, said of the anti-Thaksin forces who have repeatedly turned out into streets, taking over government buildings and once even occupying Thailand's international airport for a week. The most recent protesters, led by a former leader of the main opposition party, Suthep Thaugsuban, complained of "the tyranny of the parliamentary majority" and called for setting up an unelected council to usher in reforms. That roughly matches the plans of the junta — officially known as the National Council for Peace and Order — though for the moment it is promoting "happiness" and reconciliation as it cracks down on all forms of dissent. It is unclear how coup supporters intend to reform Thai democracy, but Thongchai expects they will attempt to balance the popular vote of the electorate with the wisdom of what is known as the "khon dee," or "virtuous people." "The most important matter to those who speak of traditional principles is rule by the virtuous," Thongchai said. "Harmony and consensus is supposed to be the behavior of this rule by the virtuous because the 'subjects' are supposed to be grateful and loyal to the virtuous." Many opponents of the ousted government say they are the ones who stand for true democratic values, and that it is Thaksin's brand of roughshod politics that goes against traditional Thai values of harmony and consensus, as columnist Tulsathit Taptim suggested in a recent article for the Nation newspaper. "A 'winner takes all' democracy is too much for Thailand. It makes the losers sour and the triumphant side do whatever is necessary to keep the status quo," Tulsathit wrote, adding, "This style of democracy is not totally democratic, at least over here." Or as Prayuth said in his speech June 6, "We understand that we are living in a democratic world, but is Thailand ready in terms of people, form and method?" From 1932, when Thailand became a constitutional monarchy, until 2001, when Thaksin was swept into office, the country was for the most part ruled either the army itself or, later, a select group of politicians who, while elected, were closely aligned with the country's elite. Thaksin, a former policeman turned telecoms tycoon, upset the status quo in the eyes of many by amassing power for himself and refusing to give it up. He has remained powerful even from his current home in the United Arab Emirates; when his sister's Pheu Thai Party rose to power in 2011, it employed the slogan "Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai acts." Thaksin's opponents, unable to beat him at the ballot box, have used other methods to counter him. After the last military coup in 2006, a new constitution was written that made the Senate partially appointed, though the House of Representatives remained a fully elected body. The Senate, in turn, appoints judges and leaders of other institutions who have largely been viewed as anti-Thaksin. "In many ways, this coup is an extension of the 2006 coup, which many in the military see as a failure in that it didn't go far enough in eliminating the Thaksin network," said Michael Connors, a scholar in Malaysia. Apparently, Thailand's coup leaders still haven't figured out how to restore at least the appearance of democracy while avoiding yet another election victory for Thaksin supporters, said Charles Keyes, a longtime scholar on Thailand at the University of Washington who has written a book on the rise of the populist movement in Thailand's northeast. "What the military has to do is to be seen as restoring democracy or else they are going to be a pariah. There has to be some movement in that direction and I think there will be movement in that direction," Keyes said. "But whether it will be really restoration of democracy as most of the rest of the world would see it—well, that is the question." Another question: Will Thailand's next version of democracy be accepted by the millions who keep voting for Thaksin-allied parties? "Many things have changed in Thailand. Measures that may have been acceptable even a few years ago may well not be today," said Michael Montesano, co-coordinator for the Thailand program at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. "If the result is something that many Thais see as undemocratic, then that is a recipe for more instability." The post Thai Coup Leaders' Goal: Democracy on Their Terms appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

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