Friday, June 6, 2014

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine


Senior US Commerce Official Opens Burma Trade Office

Posted: 06 Jun 2014 05:25 AM PDT

Pritzker commerce

US Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker, second right, and US Ambassador to Burma Derek Mitchell, second left, hold a plaque to commemorate the opening of a Commercial Service Office in Rangoon on Friday. (Photo: Facebook / US Embassy in Rangoon)

RANGOON — With a delegation of American companies in tow, US Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker christened a new trade office in Burma on Friday as she sought to deepen economic ties between the two long-estranged nations.

Along with the secretary's opening of the Commercial Service Office at the US Embassy in Rangoon, two companies showcased investments in Burma—an already operational power plant outside Mandalay, and an aluminum can manufacturing facility in the Thilawa Special Economic Zone outside of Rangoon, expected to be up and running in 2015.

Pritzker on Friday promoted the business delegation's visit as an opportunity to foster development in Burma, and encourage further political and economic reform in the Southeast Asian nation.

"Responsible investment can facilitate broad-based economic growth and economic prosperity for your people," Pritzker told reporters and businesspeople at the embassy. "We have communicated to your government the need to build on the progress that has been made by implementing measures that increase inclusive economic development, promote government transparency and accountability and safeguard labor rights and human rights."

The Commercial Service Office will serve as a resource to American companies hoping to export to Burma or invest in the country.

"Our Commercial Service officers help to increase opportunities globally, for our businesses and for yours," she said, adding that US companies would bring technical know-how and a commitment to corporate social responsibility.

That commitment may soon be put to the test, with Friday's announcement that Ball Asia Pacific would open up an aluminum can manufacturing plant next year in Thilawa, an area that is expected to be a hub for foreign investment but has been plagued by allegations of forced displacement of local residents, inadequate compensation and unacceptable living conditions at relocation sites. A formal complaint was lodged this week with the Japanese government, which is taking a lead in the project's development.

The visit also comes a day after the US Campaign for Burma (USCB), a Washington-based advocacy organization, issued a "report card" on companies already working in Burma, scoring the firms' adherence to the US State Department's "Reporting Requirements for Responsible Investment in Burma." The evaluation rated five out of six companies that have submitted reports to the US State Department as either "irresponsible" or "questionable" in their handling of human rights and corporate social responsibility reporting obligations.

American companies that invest more than US$500,000 in Burma are required under US law to submit annual "responsible investment" reports "to encourage and assist them to develop robust policies and procedures to address a range of impacts resulting from their investments and operations in Burma."

The reports require information on any security arrangements that a company might have in place, how property was acquired and disclosure of any dealings with the Burmese military, among other things.

"Burma's corrupt business environment has been controlled by a brutal and repressive military regime for decades," USCB Policy Director Rachel Wagley said in a press release on Thursday. "The Report Card is part of US Campaign for Burma's effort to hold companies accountable for their public reporting."

Scott Morrison, Ball's chief financial officer, told The Irrawaddy that the firm was working with the Thilawa SEZ's management committee and JICA, the Japanese government's development agency, to address concerns related to the project.

"We met with them recently," Morrison said. "We're happy with how they have a plan to compensate the people and provide new housing, new training, things like that, to international standards. Everything that we've seen so far seems to be that they're very transparent and fair and operating under the highest international standards."

Gihan Atapattu, president of Ball's Asia-Pacific subsidiary, added that the company's 134 years of experience would be an asset in ensuring the protection of human and labor rights.

"We think that our example, as being one of the first in Thilawa, is going to be a good change agent, to say, 'This is the standard that is expected in that zone,'" he told The Irrawaddy.

Pritzker's visit comes at a time of increasing US engagement with Burma, from tentative links between the two countries' militaries to aid projects funded by the US Agency for International Development (USAID). The growing relationship has also been dramatically manifest on the economic front, where US sanctions had long prohibited American companies from doing business with Burma under the former military regime.

The opening of the Commercial Service Office follows the 2012 decision by US President Barack Obama to suspend most economic sanctions against Burma in recognition of reforms enacted under President Thein Sein's government. Since then, US companies from corporate heavyweights Coca-Cola and Ford to Manhattan-based law firms and small-time restaurateurs have moved to set up shop in the formerly off-limits country.

Trade between the two countries is also on the rise, up from just $9.7 million in 2010 to $176 million in 2013.

Still, for both countries, the other is hardly an indispensable economic partner for the time being. Total US investment in Burma stands at $244 million, a figure that pales in comparison to Burma neighbors China and Thailand, which from 1988 through 2013 had invested more than $14 billion and $10 billion in the country, respectively.

Burma and the United States last year signed a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA), intended to serve as "a platform for ongoing dialogue and cooperation on trade and investment issues between the two governments," according to a release from the US trade office. That development came just one day after Thein Sein paid a landmark visit to his American counterpart in Washington.

Next up in the progressing relations may come a decision from Washington to grant Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) status to Burma. GSP allows privileged, duty-free access for exports to the United States from developing countries. Pritzker on Friday said the matter was under review and was a "priority" for the US government, but declined to say if or when she thought the designation might be granted.

A press release from the US Embassy said the secretary met with Thein Sein, Speaker of the Union Parliament Shwe Mann and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, as well as several cabinet ministers and Burmese civil society leaders, during her two-day visit. Burma was the last leg of a three-nation tour that also saw her visit Vietnam and the Philippines earlier this week.

The post Senior US Commerce Official Opens Burma Trade Office appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Burmese Beauty Brings Home First Int’l Crown

Posted: 06 Jun 2014 05:02 AM PDT

beauty pageant

May Myat Noe with her fashion designer. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Burmese beauty queen May Myat Noe has returned home after being the first from her country to ever win an international beauty pageant.

The 18-year-old Miss Myanmar beat out contestants from more than 30 countries, including South Korea (2nd), Macau (3rd) and India (4th), to win the Miss Asia Pacific World contest, held annually in South Korea since 2011.

She was also invited to become a special member of the Korean Film Actors' Association—another first for Burmese celebrities, according to Burma's national director at the pageant, Hla Nu Htun.

"This is a special moment not only for her, but for the country. We Burmese people dreamed of taking home the beauty crown. We're happy to show the world the beauty of our Burmese belles," Hla Nu Htun told The Irrawaddy on Friday, following May Myat Noe's return to Rangoon on Thursday.

"She said she will first devote herself to social work, to give back what she received from the country. She will have a couple shoots for advertisements and will need to take care of her education as well."

May Myat Noe, who was officially crowned last weekend, is also well known for performing in Burmese signing contest "Eain Mat Sone Yar."

She attended Myanmar International School in Yangon and then moved to Singapore for secondary school, where she excelled in athletics, particularly field hockey. She is now preparing to take examinations to study at the university level.

For about half a century of military rule, Burmese beauty queens did not leave their country to compete at international competitions.

The first Burmese contestant to do so, Nang Khin Zayar, participated in a pageant in Japan in 2012. Following in her footsteps, two other Burmese contestants, Khin Wint War and Htar Htet Htet, also competed at international pageants, winning various smaller awards for popularity on social media.

But before May Myat Noe, no Burmese pageant winner had won the main crown at an international pageant abroad.

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Minister’s Wife Shares Fake Facebook Photo of Suu Kyi in Islamic Headscarf

Posted: 06 Jun 2014 04:36 AM PDT

Suu Kyi Facebook

A screenshot of Ye Htut's Facebook page, which includes a photo of a banner from the anti-hate speech campaign Panzagar. It reads: 'Let's restrain our speech to avoid spreading hate among people.'

RANGOON — Ye Htut, Burma's deputy minister for information and the presidential spokesman, has posted an apology note on Facebook after a storm of criticism followed his wife's posting of a Photoshopped image of Aung San Suu Kyi in Islamic garb this week.

The post, of Suu Kyi wearing a hijab and being crowned with a tiara as "Woman of the Week," criticized the opposition leader for her push to amend Burma's Constitution and was shared widely on Facebook, with the minister's wife, Khin Sandar Tun, among those who shared the picture.

Another post, urging people to speak out against a rumored plan to teach all of the world's major religions in school, was also shared by his wife.

The altered image is particularly sensitive in Burma, where rising anti-Islamic sentiment has accompanied political reforms over the last few years that have included greater freedom of speech. That has coincided with rising use of social media sites like Facebook, which has been blamed for at times fanning the flames of interreligious tension by spreading false rumors and hate speech.

After screenshots of her post were spread by other Facebook users, Khin Sandar Tun deleted her Facebook account, as online criticism mounted that the behavior of the deputy minister's wife was unbecoming and threatened to stir up greater religious conflict.

One Facebook user named Demo Fatty wrote: "They simply have shown that they have a discriminating mind on different religions and races. By sharing that post, it shows the discrimination and taunting of the Muslim women. People with this kind of shallow point of view will also do the same thing to Christians or whoever, for they always think those who are different from themselves are lower than them."

Another comment, posted by Win Min Than, said: "There are many like the minister's wife, who are acting the same on Facebook. Thanks to Facebook, we now know their minds and their quality."

After a few hours of back and forth among the Burmese Facebook community, Ye Htut—who has earned the nickname "Facebook minister" for his frequent use of the social media site—posted an apology on his Facebook account, saying it was his responsibility to control his wife's behavior when it came to sharing such posts.

The minister opens the apology saying: "There are ethics to using Facebook. We have to take care with the posts that we 'like' and share, for there may be hateful posts and defamation. The posts we write on our own should not be those that spread hate speech or personal attacks.

"As a responsible person of the government and as the head of the house, I have the responsibility to teach my family members to behave accordingly, to the standard that the majority of the people are upholding," he continued.

"Apologies to those who respect and support Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and to those who visit my Facebook for my failure."

The minister also included in his apology note that he had urged his wife to delete the posts as they were a breach of democratic standards and social media ethics.

The comment wars on Facebook have continued, with some accepting the apology as sincere, while others have accused the minister of masking his true sentiment with talk of democratic ideals.

"[I] respect the action of the minister for daring to take responsibility and apologizing, but she should think before making a mistake. Being the wife of a minister for information but having a low level of knowledge is a shame," wrote one user, Ney Lin.

Another, who goes by the Facebook name Khet Oo, wrote: "Just think. Who is the most scornful? The wife of U Ye Htut, who acted out of ignorance, or U Ye Htut himself, who pretends to be a democrat and full of ethics by using fake words."

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Local NLD Leader Shot Dead in Shan State

Posted: 06 Jun 2014 04:26 AM PDT

Murder

Farmers spray pesticides on crops in southern Shan State. (Photo: Tay Za Hlaing / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — A village representative for Burma's main opposition party was found shot to death on Thursday morning in a village near the Shan State capital of Taunggyi, a local National League for Democracy (NLD) leader said.

Tin Maung Toe, chairman of the Taunggyi District's NLD office, said that the victim, Sai San Tun, 47, had been helping local villagers fighting to get back land confiscated by the Burmese military. He was also the vice chairman of the NLD office in Ming Pyin village, which is 30 miles away from the southern Shan State town of Hopone, Tin Maung Toe said.

He said that Sai San Tun was taken away from his house by two men at about midnight on Wednesday and three gunshots were heard minutes later.

"He was found dead outside of his village on Thursday morning with gunshot wounds in the back of his head and wounds on his hands," Tin Maung Toe said.

"Near his body, three bullet casings and a flash light were found."

The Burmese military, the Shan State Army-South and an ethnic Pa-O militia are known to operate in the area.

Tin Maung Toe said that the victim had been working to get back villagers' land that was grabbed by the Burma Army's Light Infantry Unit 249. Sai San Tun had sent a report about extortion by the village headman, relating to the land dispute, to Hopone Township administrators, he said.

"He was killed while he was trying to give back the villagers back the land, which the military unit already said would be returned. But the village headman was objecting to the return of the land," he said.

According to Tin Maung Toe, another fellow NLD member was killed in April this year in Shan State while facing trial accused of illegally occupying military-owned land.

"The police should catch the criminals as fast as they can since this is not the first time. We are concerned for our members," he said.

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Thailand’s Coup May Affect Burma’s Oil and Gas Sector

Posted: 06 Jun 2014 02:04 AM PDT

oil and gas

Thai soldiers stand guard along roads blocked around the Victory Monument, where anti-coup protesters were gathering on previous days, in Bangkok May 30, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

The military takeover in Bangkok is likely to lead to Thailand competing with Burma for foreign investment in oil and gas development.

Within a week of the military takeover, the permanent secretary to the Ministry of Energy, Norkun Sitthiphong, said his office was working on a set of reform and development proposals for presentation to the national council.

"Items in the new energy work plan include initiating a bid round for upstream blocks, LPG price adjustments to reduce the gap between the transport sector and households, as well as approval of a power development plan, all of which are to be achieved within the next six months," a Platts energy analysis report said.

A source in the ministry, speaking off the record, told The Irrawaddy the military-run National Council for Peace and Order will likely be presented with a set of reform proposals in the next few weeks, especially to reduce national debt from oil and gas imports and attract new investment in domestic exploration.

Thailand's plans to open up five offshore and 17 onshore blocks for exploration have been postponed several times since 2012. The blocks have combined estimated reserves of between 85 billion cubic meters and 141 billion cubic meters of gas and between 5 and 10 million barrels of oil, according to the Department of Mineral Fuels.

A new bidding round has been postponed for several reasons, including public opposition on environmental grounds. The last postponement in middle 2013 was following a leak from an oil pipeline operated by the state-owned oil monopoly PTT that polluted beaches on Koh Samet, a holiday island in the Gulf of Thailand.

In April, PTT said it was cutting its previously announced capital expenditure budget for 2014 by 30 percent, down to US$1.86 billion, because political chaos in Bangkok had delayed state approval for projects.

The postponed projects included a 300-kilometer onshore oil pipeline to link Rayong on the Gulf of Thailand with the impoverished northeast. Thailand has a limited pipeline distribution system which is mainly confined to the greater Bangkok region.

Coup leader army chief of staff General Prayuth Chan-ocha has said the military does not expect to hand back power to an elected civilian government for one year at least.

An opening up of more exploration blocks to search for gas and oil in Thailand might divert some foreign investment from new developments expected to be offered soon by Burma's Ministry of Energy and MOGE, the Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise.

On the other hand, Burma could benefit from the uncertainty in the wake of the military takeover in Thailand. Criticism of the coup by some Western governments, including a downgrading of diplomatic relations by Australia, may make potential investors reluctant to commit to high-value projects, observers have warned.

The current political turmoil has affected [Thailand's] regional competitiveness and ability to function as an efficient and effective place to do business, said Strategic Risk, a London-based investment guidance publication in a June 2 post-coup assessment.

This could pose long-term problems for a country already wrestling with slowing growth and outflows of global capital from its fragile financial markets, it said, quoting international business law firm DLA Piper.

"Even prior to the current political unrest, there was a need for Thailand to take action to stay competitive in the Asian market, given the increasing emergence of other countries such as Myanmar, Indonesia and the Philippines as attractive alternative places to invest," DLA Piper's Jonathan Goacher told Strategic Risk.

"The current episode of unrest has served to place even greater pressure on Thailand to remain attractive to foreign investment."

More than 65 percent of Thailand's energy consumption is from oil and natural gas, and increasing volumes are imported as domestic production declines. The most recent official figures show crude oil imports averaging more than 620,000 barrels per day.

The Thai Ministry of Energy's Department of Energy Business has said the import bill for oil and gas in 2012, the latest year for published statistics, was $34.3 billion.

The International Energy Agency forecast last October that Thailand's energy consumption—already the second highest in Southeast Asia behind Indonesia, which has more than three times the Thai population—will grow by 75 percent by 2035 and that without reforms the annual energy import bill could climb to $70 billion.

PTT's subsidiary PTT Exploration & Production, or PTTEP, has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Burma's offshore oil and gas sector, but mainly in opaque agreements which were reached with the former Burmese military regime, ensuring most production was shipped to Thailand.

"There is a groundswell of opinion in governing and energy industry circles [in Bangkok] that is concerned about Thailand's dependence on imported gas and crude oil and this is something the coup leaders and their advisers are likely to want to try to deal with," Bangkok independent analyst Collin Reynolds told The Irrawaddy.

"One answer is to try to produce more oil and gas at home. Existing domestic oil and gas fields which are mostly in the Gulf of Thailand are or will soon be peaking, so the need for new discoveries is becoming urgent. Foreign investor interest is there, however, it may be muted by the army's takeover of the country which is already being frowned on by some friendly governments, not least the United States."

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South Korea Unveils Monument for Rangoon Bomb Victims

Posted: 06 Jun 2014 01:16 AM PDT

Korea

South Korea unveiled a memorial on Friday to the victims of a bomb attack near Rangoon's Martyr's Mausoleum. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — South Korea unveiled a memorial Friday to the victims of a North Korean commando attack more than 30 years ago in Burma.

North Korean commandos staged the attack during a visit by the then South Korean President Chun Doo Hwan in October 1983 at the Martyr's Mausoleum in Rangoon. Chun was unhurt but 21 other people including 17 South Korean senior officials died and nearly 50 were wounded.

A 1.5-meter (five-foot) high stone monument with names of those killed was built outside the mausoleum.

Visiting South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se and family members of the victims attended the ceremony Friday near the site where the bombing took place.

Burma severed diplomatic relations with North Korea after the attack but restored relations in 2007.

Friday was a national holiday in South Korea for Memorial Day to honor the people who died during military service in the 1950-53 Korean War.

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After Alleged Torture, Three Kachin Men Sentenced for Explosives Offenses

Posted: 05 Jun 2014 11:31 PM PDT

Torture

Ethnic Kachin people are seen protesting in Myitkyina in July 2012 for the release of farmer Brang Shawng, who was freed last year as part of a presidential amnesty. Three Kachin men arrested around the same time as Brang Shawng were sentenced to lengthy jail terms for explosives offences on Thursday. (Photo: KDNG)

RANGOON — Three ethnic Kachin men, who have allegedly been subjected to degrading treatment in the custody of the Burmese military, were sentenced to lengthy jail terms by a court in the Kachin State capital on Thursday, according to their lawyer.

Gan Yon, Laphai Gam and La Reing were arrested in the midst of fierce fighting in northern Burma in June 2012 and accused of being soldiers for the Kachin Independence Army (KIA). Their lawyer, Mar Khar, told The Irrawaddy that the Myitkyina District Court this week sentenced them to 14, 13, and three years in prison, respectively, under articles 3 and 4 of Burma's 1908 Explosive Substances Law.

They are already serving separate prison sentences, handed down last year, of five years each under Article 17(1) of the controversial Unlawful Associations Law, the lawyer said.

The three men have consistently denied the charges and say they are not affiliated with the KIA.

Mar Khar said they were not given a fair trial, and insists that the three men are civilians who at the time of their arrest were living in the Shwe Set camp for internally displaced persons after fleeing fighting near their homes.

"I strongly object to the verdicts," said Mar Khar. "The judges neglected the law and ignored the defense's testimony, although the evidence presented by the plaintiff [local police] was groundless."

The lawyer has long alleged on behalf of his clients that they were subjected to human rights abuses during their detention.

"They were badly tortured, including burning of their genitals and beatings. [Laphai Gam and La Rein] were forced to perform sexual acts on each other in front of military officials," Mar Khar said.

A fourth Kachin man arrested around the same time as those convicted this week, Brang Shawng, was released last year in a presidential pardon after he was charged only with the Unlawful Associations Law. The Burmese government has been accused of targeting civilians in ethnic areas with the law.

The lawyer said Burma's political leaders were ignoring human rights abuses and judicial bias against civilians. He said he has sent letters to President Thein Sein and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who heads Parliaments rule of law committee, but has received no response.

Mar Khar said such injustice persists across Burma, not just in Kachin State, where fighting between the government's troops and ethnic rebels continues.

"I am afraid their cases will become example in others' future trials," he added.

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The Growing Friendship Between Naypyidaw and the KNU

Posted: 05 Jun 2014 10:57 PM PDT

Karen

The KNU delegation and the Burmese army delegation pose for group photo. (Photo: Senior General Min Aung Hlaing / Facebook)

The visit of the Karen National Union's (KNU) top-ranking leaders to Naypyidaw this week has been highly publicized in Burmese media and on social networks, with the atmosphere of the talks indicating the growing friendship between the two long-time foes.

Naypyidaw has given its warmest welcome to the KNU, one of the longest-running ethnic insurgencies in Burma.

All the key figures in the government, from President Thein Sein to Parliament Speaker Shwe Mann to Burma's armed forces commander-in-chief, Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing—who seldom meet with the country's ethnic rebel leaders—received the KNU delegation. Min Aung Hlaing even gave presents to the KNU leaders, handed over with a friendly smile.

But, apart from speculation on social media, nobody knows clearly what the interests are behind this growing friendship.

Naypyidaw's interest in the KNU might go beyond regular meetings, as tensions and on-and-off conflicts are heating up in northern Burma. Questions linger about whether the Burmese government wants to keep southern Burma—where insurgencies including the KNU are still active—quiet while it wages war against the northern ethnic groups, the Kachin and Palaung.

Saw Kwe Htoo Win, general secretary of the KNU, said that the KNU and Naypyidaw have agreed to meet regularly—once every two months—for talks. However, there is no clarity about the purpose of the meetings, and unannounced informal meetings between the two parties have taken place several times.

Sources inside the KNU said that even some within the rebel leadership do not know clearly the purpose of the current visit to the capital. The KNU appears to be divided into two factions, with poor communication between the two sides.

Some also believe that the government wants to give some kind of "carrot" to ethnic armed groups in the south before it gives the "stick" to insurgencies in the north, including the biggest ethnic rebel group, the United Wa State Army, based in eastern Shan State and well-equipped with modern arms.

The Burmese government has reportedly reinforced its troops and sent military supplies, including planes and armored trucks, to Kachin and Shan states since last month, and local sources worry about a large-scale offensive soon in the north.

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‘This is a One-Sided Offensive’

Posted: 05 Jun 2014 05:30 PM PDT

Kyaw Zwa Moe, left, editor of the English edition of The Irrawaddy magazine, speaks with Kachin activists Khon Ja, center, and May Sabe Phyu, right, during this week's episode of

Kyaw Zwa Moe, left, editor of the English edition of The Irrawaddy magazine, speaks with Kachin activists Khon Ja, center, and May Sabe Phyu, right, during this week's episode of "Dateline Irrawaddy."

In this week's "Dateline Irrawaddy" show—first aired on DVB on Wednesday—panelists discuss the situation in northern Burma on the third anniversary of fighting between the government army and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA).  

Kyaw Zwa Moe: This week marks the third anniversary of the resumption of fighting between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the government's forces. How many Kachin people, including women and children, are suffering from the consequences of fighting and have to live in the IDP (internally displaced persons) camps?  We are going to explore more with our invited guests: Ma Khon Ja, the coordinator of the Kachin Peace Network, and Ma May Sabe Phyu, the coordinator of the Kachin Women's Peace Network. And I am Kyaw Zwa Moe, editor of the English edition of The Irrawaddy magazine.

The KIA and government forces resumed fighting in 2011 and there have been frequent skirmishes over the past years, including as recently as April. The government and KIA are blaming each other for causing the war. Who do you think is more responsible for the past three years of war? The government or the KIA? Or should both be blamed?

Khon Ja: Let me talk about where these clashes have taken place. After the ceasefire agreement in 1994, the KIO (Kachin Independence Organization) built military bases according to mutual agreements. Now the government's forces are invading these bases. Since 2011, no ethnic armed group has gone beyond the boundaries of their bases to attack government bases. This is a one-sided offensive from the government, while the KIA and other armed groups in similar situations are just defending their positions. The government is using a lot of resources to wage this war, and the situation is even worse than fighting against a foreign invasion. This is the worst in Burma's history, and the government is solely reasonable.

KZM: President Thein Sein carried out some reforms after he took office in 2011, and he managed to achieve peace agreements with some ethnic armed groups, except the KIA, which is one of the biggest ethnic armed groups. What is the root cause? And why is it taking so long to make them sign a peace accord?

KJ: It is like solving the chicken and egg problem. Looking from one side, it is the Constitution which is responsible. And according to that Constitution, only one person can make war and end war. Because the commander-in-chief is standing at the top echelon of the hierarchy, according to the Constitution, he alone is accountable in this matter. If the Constitution provided checks over the commander-in-chief, the war would have been over by now.

KZM: Ma Khon Ja, do you want to say the commander-in-chief is powerful, but what about the president? Does he play any role in the war? Only the commander-in-chief?

KJ: It is very hard to say. Because the president already ordered to halt offenses on September 10, 2011, and again on January 18, 2013, he says there is armistice already in Lajayan. However, fighting still continues. Hmu Zaw (aka Zaw Htay, a director of the President's Office) once told DVB that the army obeys the orders of the president. That's why we don't know if they are plotting this together.

KZM: Ma May Sabe Phyu, as we know, hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons have been displaced in three years of war, and more of them are women than men. Do the women suffer more in the camps? What is going on over there?

May Sabe Phyu: Among the 120,000 IDPs, over 60 percent are women, and the number of children is also high, between 5,000 and 7,000. I have no words to describe the effect of war on them, except that they were badly and severely hurt. The effects of war on women are not just the immediate effects—the health of childbearing women, their undernourishment and the future of the children they deliver in the camps, who will have to spend their early lives and developmental years in the camps will have to be considered. Because women are the mothers and the future of the nation. In this sense, they are not only destroying the lives of Kachin women and children, they are destroying the future of the whole Kachin nation. That is what I want to say. At the same time, I am not saying that men do not face any troubles. Men are targeted as having connections with armed groups or links to bomb attacks, and they are arrested and punished. Women sometimes endure sexual assault and rape. Although we have taken such cases even up to Naypyidaw to sue those who are responsible, we have never succeeded.

KZM: We heard the army is targeting civilians, and that's why there are many IDPs, including women. But when we asked the deputy minister of information, Ye Htut, who is also the presidential spokesperson, after the fighting started in June 2011, he always denied this. How do you want to respond?

MSP: Whenever women have become victims of violence during the war, we are always faced with the question: Does only the government's forces commit such atrocities, or are any other armed forces committing the same acts? According to information and records we collected as women support groups, government forces commit many more acts of violence against ethnic minority women. There can be a counter argument that we are only following the cases committed by the government's forces. No matter what they say, ethnic minority women are targeted by the government's forces, who accuse that their husbands, fathers or brothers are either members of armed groups or have connections with armed groups.

KJ: I want to add one thing here. Not only women, they are also targeting children. In Nam Lim Pa, on November 16, 2013, the army followed a logistics force and entered the village at about 4 in the evening. And they took as hostages over 200 students living at a boarding house for IDPs for over four hours, and they did whatever they wanted in the village. That incident will leave behind trauma in the children's minds, and they will hate and be afraid of soldiers for the rest of their lives. Since the soldiers are the only Burmans they have ever seen, that is like creating ethnocentric animosities among the different ethnic groups. That's why the government's forces are not only attacking the KIA, but also attacking all the ethnic groups.

KZM: If we look at the international political setting, the UK and US are engaging with the army, as you can see. But at the same time, the army is waging war against domestic armed groups. What is your take on such engagement?

KJ: When they started the engagement, they said they would do capacity building for the army, which would not include enhancing weaponry or combat skills, but only enhancing the conduct of the army.  It is unacceptable for me, because the army doesn't need to learn from anywhere else that raping women, robbing, threatening, bullying and torturing are not good. These are matters of the innate conscience of human beings, they don't even need to learn these from any religion. Now when they do military-to-military engagement with the Burmese army with that reason, they are giving credit to them. Even the UN Peace Corps invited the army to join them. I think this is too much. Because those at the top learn things they don't even need to learn, but those at the bottom are going on in their own ways in the army. That would make it difficult to take action for the war crimes they have committed. The international community is covering the army in more positive tones. I can't accept that, unless this engagement is meant to push the army to do policy reform. I can't accept that, if the army is taking advantage of this engagement and going on committing atrocities.

KZM: Ma May Sabe Phyu, in fact, the government's war with the KIA did not start in 2011, but has been ongoing for the past 50 or 60 years.  As we understand that equality is the ultimate goal of the ethnic people's struggle, how can the war be stopped, even if it has not been achieved yet? Any recommendations for leaders of both sides?

MSP: The most important thing is to have honesty and not to lie. Negotiations and dialogue have not been successful because mutual trust can't be built. Why? Because they don't keep their promises. They always break their promises. They just pressure others until they get the situation they want. This kind of one-sided behavior is not the way to build trust, and as a result, the wars are still going on. That is my sincere view.

KZM: Ma Khon Ja, are you pessimistic or optimistic about the prospect of ending the war?

KJ: I see both ways. I don't want to push for merely signing the ceasefire agreement, but I want to push for an immediate and genuine ceasefire on the battlefield.

ZKM: Can you see any possibility of this happening?

KJ: If the army can control their forces, they can stop the fighting instantly because ethnic armed groups will never attack them in the first place.

KZM: Ma Khon Ja and Ma May Sabe Phyu, thanks for joining us. We can roughly conclude from our discussion that ending the ongoing fighting between the KIA and the government's forces depends on trust-building and mutual agreements between them. Thanks to you all for watching.

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Burma Army Kills 1 Civilian, Injures 5: Rights Group

Posted: 05 Jun 2014 10:39 PM PDT

Myanmar ethnic conflict, human rights abuses Myanmar military

A Shan woman, A Htay, was killed after Burma Army soldiers opened fire on her as she rode past a checkpoint near Namkham on May 29, according to SHRF. (Photo: shanhumanrights.org)

The Shan Human Rights Foundation (SHRF) has accused the Burma Army of attacking ethnic Shan civilians during recent military operations on the border of Kachin and Shan states. It said at least one person had been killed and five others were shot and injured by government troops since mid-April.

On April 10, the Burma Army began an offensive against Kachin Independence Army (KIA) troops in Kachin State's Mansi Township, the rights group said in a statement released Thursday.

"Deploying over 1,000 troops, they fired hundreds of shells to drive out the KIA, in the populated Shan farming area of Tung Loi Ho Hsur west of Namkham" a town in northern Shan State, it said.

"The shelling caused civilian injury, and damaged temples, houses, vehicles and other property. The Burma Army troops also entered villages, looted food and livestock, and set fire to farmers' crops, causing well over 1,000 Shan villagers from about 15 villages to flee to neighboring towns in northern Shan State, as well as into China," the group said.

map-location of fighting  displacement on burma-china border1

A map showing the location of the recent fighting in Kachin State. (Photo: shanhumanrights.org)

The Burma Army has since seized the Pang Kham border crossing to China from the KIA.

SHRF said most of the displaced have since returned home to their villages, but security remained tight following the offensive and government troops guarding the Chinese Shwe gas pipeline, which runs west of Namkham, have opened fire on villagers on several occasions.

"Five villagers have been shot and injured by soldiers … and last week a woman was shot and killed when riding a motorbike past a security checkpoint east of Namkham," the statement said, adding that it "strongly denounces these military operations by the Burma Army, which are fuelling conflict and endangering the lives of local civilians."

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Human Rights Watch Decries Burma Election Commission’s ‘Intimidation’

Posted: 05 Jun 2014 09:47 PM PDT

election commission

Tin Aye, chairman of the Union Election Commission, talks to journalists in Naypyidaw ahead of the April 2012 by-elections. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Human Rights Watch has called for Burma's Union Election Commission (UEC) to stop "intimidating" the country's main opposition party, and accused the commission's chair of showing bias in favor of the military.

In a statement Wednesday, the New York-based group said the government should abandon proposed restrictions on campaigning in future elections, and noted the UEC's warning to National League for Democracy Chairwoman Aung San Suu Kyi over a speech she gave at a constitutional reform rally in Mandalay last month.

The UEC claimed in a letter to Suu Kyi that the opposition leader had breached constitutional rules and an oath she gave as a parliamentarian by challenging the military to allow the charter to be amended.

"It's truly scandalous that the electoral commission is threatening a political party for violating a regulation that doesn't exist," Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch, was quoted saying.

"It's even worse that the threat is about a political speech on the future direction of the country."

"The electoral commission should immediately stop intimidating opposition parties and threatening free expression in Burma," Human Rights Watch said in the statement.

The group targeted UEC Chairman Tin Aye, a former general in Burmese army who was elected to be a lawmaker for the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party before being appointed by President Thein Sein as head of the election body.

Human Rights Watch said the chairman "has made numerous remarks in recent months that demonstrate a pro-military bias.

"In April, he defended the constitutional provision guaranteeing 25 percent of parliamentary seats to serving military officers, claiming the quota was needed to avert any future coup.

"He also promised that the 2015 elections would be free and fair, but would be conducted in 'disciplined democracy style,' using rhetoric closely associated with past Burmese military governments," the statement said.

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Ethnic Padaung Women Left Behind

Posted: 05 Jun 2014 06:00 PM PDT

Padaung

Ethnic Padaung women in Karenni State, seen here in Demoso Township's Pu Khu village, are known for their long necks, around which they wear metal rings from a young age. (Photo: Sai Zaw / The Irrawaddy)

DEMOSO TOWNSHIP, Karenni State — Ethnic Padaung woman Mu Parin, 39, has eight children—three girls and five boys.

In her culture, school is not considered a necessity for women, who are only expected to tend to crops and look after livestock.

Men are encouraged to study, however. Here in Pu Kho village, Mu Parin's son, La Lon, is 11 and has studied up to fifth grade. He can write and he speaks some Burmese, but his three older sisters can't read or write, or speak a word of Burmese.

"Our culture only lets women take care of the cows," Mu Parin told The Irrawaddy. "We give birth to them, but we feel they are not really our children because when they get married, they have to go and stay at their husband's house. This is why we do not send them to school."

Since men have to take care of their families, the Padaung believe, they should go to school.

The ethnic group is best known for its "long neck" women. From age 5, girls must begin wearing metal rings around their necks and limbs, and more are added as they grow older, giving the appearance of an extended neck.

Pu Khu village in Karenni State's Demoso Township has 40 houses and is populated by mostly ethnic Padaung people.

Ma Htin Htet Phyu, an ethnic Pa-O woman who is married to a Padaung man, said that a lot of Padaung women can't read or write, and don't speak Burmese.

The culture is beginning to change, she said, and a few girls are now allowed to go to school, but progress is slow.

"People here are not really modernizing. They remain behind in modern education and development," said Ma Htin Htet Pyu.

"The community is poor. There is no one who could lead them in the community to teach these people or let them go to school."

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Indonesia Presidential Candidate Jokowi Says He’d Have Market-friendly Policies

Posted: 05 Jun 2014 10:29 PM PDT

Indonesian presidential candidates Joko

Indonesian presidential candidates Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, left, and Prabowo Subianto smile as they attend a ceremony to draw ballot numbers at the Election Commission in Jakarta on June 1, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

JAKARTA — The front-runner to become Indonesia's new president, Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, has told investors that he will pursue market-friendly policies and make bureaucratic reform and infrastructure-building his priorities.

Jokowi presented a pro-reform platform for Southeast Asia’s largest economy as investment cools and the country faces hefty budget and current account deficits.

"Investors should be given enough room to broaden their investments," Jokowi told a crowd of domestic and foreign investors at an event late on Wednesday in Jakarta’s business district.

The event, held on the day the presidential campaign officially began, was the first time Jokowi presented his economic program in public. He spoke with fund managers at a closed-door meeting last month.

On July 9, Indonesians will choose either Jokowi, the Jakarta governor, or ex-general Prabowo Subianto as president, to succeed Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who completes the allowed two, five-year terms in October.

Jokowi’s rise to become Jakarta governor and common touch made him an early favorite. But he faces a formidable challenge from Prabowo, who emerged as a serious contender after securing the backing of the country's second biggest party Golkar last month.

Opinion polls show Jokowi is still ahead, but one recent survey indicated up to 40 percent of voters remain undecided.

Prabowo is seen as presenting a more nationalistic vision of the Indonesian economy. Indonesia's stock market and the rupiah fell on news that parties backing Prabowo won a slightly bigger share of votes in the April 9 parliamentary poll than pro-Jokowi parties.

In Jokowi’s talk on Wednesday, he was less vague than earlier on his economic policies, but he gave no specifics on matters like how he would finance ports he wants to build.

The candidate's proposal to simplify bureaucratic procedures for investment was welcomed by Sofjan Wanandi, the chairman of the Indonesian Employers Association.

"He is saying exactly what we need," said Wanandi. "Cut all the red tape and lower the high costs like logistics to make [Indonesian] products more competitive. We hope he wins so he can implement these ideas."

Jokowi’s team says that as president, he would address the pressing issue of Indonesia’s ballooning fuel subsidy bill, which currently leaves little budget money left for much-needed infrastructure projects.

"We’re facing a fiscal time bomb," Fauzi Ichsan, head of Jokowi’s banking and finance advisory team, told Reuters.

"Among other options, Jokowi is considering gradually raising fuel prices and phasing out subsidies over the next four years."

Ichsan said there is no plan to revise a law that caps the fiscal deficit at 3 percent of gross domestic product "so it’s implied that reform of the energy sector and the fuel subsidies will have to happen."

Both Prabowo and Jokowi will travel widely in the next month to woo more than 186 million voters across the archipelago. Online campaigns are already under way and have been marked by mudslinging from both camps.

The official campaign period will end July 5, when a quiet period will be enforced by the election commission before the July 9 voting.

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Group of Thai Politicians Plans Overseas Movement to Resist Coup

Posted: 05 Jun 2014 10:21 PM PDT

resistance to Thai coup

Activists, with their mouths taped up as a form of protest against the ongoing military rule in Thailand, gesture during a picket in front of the Thai embassy in Manila on June 5, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

BANGKOK — Around 15 Thai political leaders allied to the ousted government plan to establish a movement outside Thailand to lead a campaign of civil disobedience to military rule, two members of the group said on Thursday.

General Prayuth Chan-ocha seized power on May 22 and has since led a crackdown that has stifled dissent and silenced the "red shirt" supporters of former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and her brother, billionaire former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

The military has detained many politicians and activists and demanded as a condition of release that they sign documents stating they would avoid politics and halt anti-coup activities.

If the plan proceeds, the group would represent the first attempt to mount organized opposition to military rule. The two activists said they had yet to formulate exactly what measures the group would use, but said they would be peaceful and would aim to fill the leadership vacuum among anti-coup elements.

"We believe democracy in Thailand has been systematically destroyed," said former government minister and red-shirt founding member Jakrapob Penkair in a telephone interview from Phnom Penh, the capital of neighboring Cambodia.

"People have been chastened, hunted and bullied with no sense of fairness, justice or decency. We aim to create an organization for all groups protesting the coup inside and outside Thailand. This would be a non-radical group using civil disobedience."

Thaksin, who lives in exile, is not involved in the movement, said both Jakrapob and a second member of the group, fugitive former Member of Parliament Sunai Julapongsathorn.

It is unclear how much momentum the movement would gain among those opposed to the junta without the backing of Thaksin, who revolutionized Thai politics and commands the loyalty of millions in the populous north.

The coup was the latest twist in nearly a decade of confrontation between Thaksin and the Bangkok-based royalist establishment, which sees him as a threat to their interests.

Thaksin has given no guidance to his supporters since the military seized power. The former prime minister has effectively funded and controlled the red-shirt movement from self-imposed exile since fleeing a 2008 conviction for abuse of power. He was ousted by the military in a previous coup in 2006.

"We will advance with or without him," said Jakrapob, a former spokesman for Thaksin. "He’s not involved and had no influence in setting this up."

Jakrapob was forced to resign as a minister in May 2008 after being accused of violating Thailand’s strict lese-majeste laws and has lived in Cambodia for some time.

'Red Shirt' Leaders Summoned

The military has summoned Jakrapob along with other prominent red-shirt leaders to report on June 9.

Asked if the military had heard of the plans to set up such a movement overseas, Winthai Suvaree, deputy spokesman for the military’s National Council for Peace and Order, said: "Thai law can’t touch those who flee abroad but if we know where they are we will ask for international cooperation to bring them back to Thailand."

"We are monitoring groups resisting the coup. Those who were summoned and do not show up will face the law and their case will be treated as criminal. If they return to Thailand and have cases pending then these may be brought to military court," he told a news conference.

Kuy Kuong, a spokesman at Cambodia’s Foreign Ministry, said no request for such cooperation had yet been received from Thailand.

But Kirth Chantharith, a deputy national police chief, told Reuters that Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen would not allow resistance groups to base themselves in the country.

"We won’t allow anyone to use our soil to plot against any country. Our position is clear," Kirth Chantharith said.

Sunai, the Thai activist, said some members of the group would remain inside Thailand.

"We will fight with information but the strategy is not yet clear," he told Reuters in a conversation over Skype. Sunai said he was in Thailand, but declined to say where. He is on the run after ignoring a military summons in the days after the coup.

"In three months, the military will have relaxed its grip. That is when we will move. This won’t be quick. It will take a long time."

Both Jakrapob and Sunai said the movement would be based in a neutral country outside Thailand. Both declined to say where.

The group would not base themselves in Cambodia to avoid putting in a difficult position, Jakrapob said.

The group may call itself the "Free Thai Movement," adopting the name of the underground resistance in Thailand to Japanese occupation during World War Two, Jakrapob said. Sunai said no name had been chosen yet.

The group had considered and then ruled out the possibility of forming a government in exile, Jakrapob said.

The junta has banned meetings of more than five people and at the weekend flooded Bangkok with thousands of troops and policemen. Opposition to the coup has been limited to small flash mob protests, and they have for the most part been peaceful.

Some protesters have expressed defiance through the use of a three-fingered salute inspired by the hit film "The Hunger Games," where the gesture symbolized rebellion against a totalitarian regime.

Others Bangkok protesters have sat in groups of less than five reading books about civil disobedience or that criticize authoritarian government, such as George Orwell’s "1984."

Pracha Hariraksapitak in Bangkok and Prak Chan Thul in Phnom Penh contributed reporting.

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China Said to Be Reclaiming More Land in Spratlys

Posted: 05 Jun 2014 10:14 PM PDT

Chinese military expansion in Asia

Members of the Philippine marines are transported on a rubber boat from a patrol ship after conducting a mission on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, in March 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

MANILA — China has been reclaiming more land to bolster its military presence in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, where its increasing assertion of its territorial claims has brought it into standoffs with its neighbors, Philippine officials said on Thursday.

The Philippines protested in April after discovering that Chinese dredging ships had reclaimed a large patch of land in Johnson Reef in the Spratlys that it could use to build a military outpost or an airstrip far from the Chinese mainland.

President Benigno Aquino III said he was bothered after seeing surveillance photos of ships capable of reclaiming land in the vicinity of two other Chinese-occupied reefs in the Spratlys called Cuarteron and Gaven.

"We are again bothered that there seems to be development in other areas within the disputed seas," Aquino said at a news conference.

When asked whether reclamation of land was underway in the two Chinese-controlled reefs, Aquino did not give a clear reply, but two military officials told The Associated Press that government surveillance had monitored land reclamation activities in Cuarteron and Gaven.

The Chinese embassy in Manila did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

China, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam have overlapping territorial claims in the Spratlys, a group of mostly barren islands, reefs and atolls that are believed to be sitting atop oil and natural gas deposits. They also straddle the world’s most-traversed sea lanes.

Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines occupied separate islands in the archipelago decades ago. China later stepped up efforts to take control of uninhabited submerged reefs by reclaiming land and constructing buildings on them that resembled military outposts.

China’s spats with Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea have particularly flared, with the most serious confrontation erupting when Beijing deployed an oil rig on May 1 in waters that Hanoi claims are within its exclusive economic zone. That zone refers to the 230-mile (370-km) stretch of sea in which a coastal country has an exclusive right to fish and exploit undersea gas and oil deposits under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

China’s oil rig deployment ignited violent protests in Vietnam that killed at least two Chinese. Chinese and Vietnamese ships continue to be locked in a tense standoff around the oil rig.

Chinese government ships have also been in a standoff since May 2013 with a small contingent of Filipino marines stationed on a grounded Philippine navy ship at the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratlys. The Chinese ships have repeatedly attempted to block Philippine ships delivering fresh batches of marines and food supply to the shoal, sparking tense chases.

Southeast Asian countries have failed so far to convince China to negotiate a legally binding code of conduct aimed at discouraging actions that could escalate to fighting in the disputed waters.

Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said that until China's "expansion agenda is completed, I don’t see a desire on their part to conclude the code of conduct."

Meanwhile, a report released by the US Defense Department on Thursday said that China shows growing capability to project military power beyond its shores.

In an annual report to Congress, the Pentagon said China’s military modernization was driven primarily by potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait, but also by its expanding interests and influence abroad, and increased tensions in the East China and South China seas. In November, China conducted its largest naval exercise to date in the Philippine Sea.

In a long-standing US criticism of China’s military expansion over the past two decades, the Pentagon criticized China’s lack of openness about its strategy, which it said has caused concerns in Asia.

"Absent greater transparency from China and a change in its behavior, these concerns will likely intensify as the PLA’s military modernization program progresses," the report said, referring to China’s People’s Liberation Army.

China’s government in March announced a 12.2 percent increase in military spending to US$132 billion. That followed last year's 10.7 percent increase to $114 billion, giving China the second-highest defense budget for any nation behind the US, which spent $600.4 billion on its military last year.

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The Lady Rallies the Masses Once Again

Posted: 05 Jun 2014 10:01 PM PDT

Thousands of NLD supporters gather at Bo Sein Hamn field in Rangoon to listen to constitutional reform talks by opposition leader Aung San Su Kyi on May 17. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

The big question in Burmese politics these days is whether the military will allow Aung San Suu Kyi to run for the presidency. The current Constitution, which was drafted and passed by the old military regime, bars her from the job. Article 59F of the Constitution states that any Burmese who has a foreign spouse or children who are foreign nationals can't become president or vice president. Aung San Suu Kyi's two sons (from her marriage with the deceased Oxford professor Michael Aris) have British citizenship, so she needs to change that rule before she can qualify for Burma's highest office. Burma's military rulers included that rather peculiar condition precisely in order to prevent her from taking power.

During the third week of May, Aung San Suu Kyi's supporters gathered for two mass rallies in Rangoon and Mandalay, Burma's two biggest cities. (The demonstration in Mandalay, the most important commercial city in upper Burma, drew an estimated 25,000 supporters.) Both rallies called for amending Article 436 of the 2008 Constitution, which essentially gives the military a veto over any amendments. The article stipulates that any amendments require the support of more than 75 percent of members of the Parliament, where unelected military representatives control a quarter of the seats. Aung San Suu Kyi's camp have to get rid of this provision before they can amend the article that prevents her from holding the presidency.

There's no doubt that Burma's Constitution is deeply flawed. The excessive power that it grants the military and the obstacles it places in the way of amendment are only two of the most obvious problems. Ideally, of course, these provisions can be changed or abolished. In reality, matters are a bit more complicated. The 2008 Constitution was the result of an effort to reduce the military's direct control of the state as part of the country's transition away from the previous military dictatorship. For all its flaws, the Constitution has enabled the political opening that continues in Burma today.

At the rallies, Aung San Suu Kyi and her supporters called for replacing the 75 percent requirement with a simple majority parliamentary vote. After spending the past two years lobbying for a constitutional amendment, the Lady (as the Burmese often refer to their revered opposition leader) has finally lost her patience with the military, which failed to respond to her request for a formal meeting with key political players, including President Thein Sein, House Speaker Shwe Mann, and Army Chief Min Aung Hlaing. Speaking to thousands of supporters at the rallies, she ultimately resorted to some highly charged, shame-and-name rhetoric: "I challenge the military…" "Soldiers must be brave enough to face reality… "The military was founded as the Burma Liberation Army, not as the Army for Repressing Burma."

The crowds were suitably fired up. They also applauded her decision to team up with the 88 Generation Group, the most influential activist group in Burma after Aung San Suu Kyi's own party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), to organize these mass rallies and launch a nationwide campaign to petition for constitutional reform.

The question is whether this show of political influence will achieve its professed goal. The short answer is "no."

In all likelihood, the campaign will end up serving merely as part of the broader political effort to garner support for Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD, ahead of the 2015 elections. There are at least three reasons to assume this outcome.

First, what is the Lady's broader game plan? What will she do if the military rejects her call for constitutional reform? Will she launch a campaign of street protests? Judging by her statements to date, she has no plans to go that far. She insists that she's planning to reform the Constitution in compliance with parliamentary procedure. Will she boycott the 2015 elections? Also unlikely. Such a move would leave her and her supporters in the political wilderness once again.

So what's left? The 2008 Constitution does not provide any path for translating public opinion into policy apart from regular parliamentary elections and the right of voters to recall elected officials. (A controversial bill that would translate the latter principle into law remains on hold.) So long as Aung San Suu Kyi is committed to pursuing constitutional change according to the military's rules, it's hard to see how her strength on the streets can translate into actual reform in Parliament.

Meanwhile, the military and its associated political party are becoming savvier in dealing with the challenges posed by the opposition. Consistent with their strategy of co-optation, the ruling elites do not reject anything outright. They typically respond to opposition demands by making partial concessions and preventing full-blown confrontation. On May 21st, the parliamentary Joint Committee for Reviewing the Constitution (JCRC) announced that its members had agreed to amend Article 436, saying that they will submit a proposal to Parliament for a final decision. Though the incumbent-dominated JCRC did not reveal details of the proposal, it almost certainly won't do anything to help the opposition get what it wants. Moreover, the military chief recently made it clear that any constitutional changes have to be passed according to the existing amendment procedures. In short, even if the military agrees to make concessions, the opposition will find it virtually impossible to pass a corresponding amendment.

Since Aung San Suu Kyi is unlikely to resort to full-on street protests or election boycotts, the main effect of her current campaign for constitutional reform will be to motivate her base to vote for her party in the 2015 elections. Even so, the effort does come with a substantial risk. The campaign could spark conflict with pro-government activists such as the Buddhist nationalists who have already declared their support for the incumbent president and Article 59F. More importantly, military leaders might view Aung San Suu Kyi's call for soldiers to sign the charter reform petition as a ploy to divide the military. It's precisely such fears that fuel continuing suspicion of the democratic forces among the officer corps. The Election Commission, for its part, issued a warning to Aung San Suu Kyi, chiding her for using language "challenging the army."

Whether or not the Lady has the stomach to pick another intractable fight with a new generation of military generals is a question that has to do with a second concern: the credibility of the constitutional reform campaign.

Given the country's complex ethnic makeup and its continuing civil war, minority groups are among the most important actors in Burmese political conflicts. So far, however, their representatives have been conspicuously absent from the stage at Aung San Suu Kyi's public rallies (even though the Lady has paid lip service to the federalist cause in her speeches). This seems odd, considering there's no way to build enough support to reform the Constitution that bypasses the ethnic groups (whether inside or outside Parliament). So the exclusion of the ethnic groups from the current campaign merely reinforces the conclusion that the NLD constitutional reform campaign is really just a way of preparing for the 2015 elections. Instead of the ethnic groups, the Lady has brought in her informal sidekick, the 88 Generation group. Observers agree that most of the group's leaders do not entertain electoral ambitions, so they have no plans to field candidates against Aung San Suu Kyi—at least in the 2015 elections.

Finally, even if Aung San Suu Kyi throws all of her energy and resources into the campaign, the current political context does not seem to favor her. The current government's liberalization process might appear inclusive, but the reality is quite different.

While the new regime has accepted Aung San Suu Kyi as a valid spokesperson in certain areas, it still refuses to give her any real power over policy. And there is little she can do to change that now, having given the government her blanket endorsement early on. The lady's public announcement of trust in President Thein Sein and his "genuine wishes for democratic reform" in 2012 granted the new regime much-needed domestic and international legitimacy; she may well regret that decision now, but what's done is done. Meanwhile, the anti-Muslim nationalist movement is preparing to push back if the Lady dares to launch a full-scale confrontation over the issue of constitutional reform.

The promise of the Arab Spring has ebbed. Turkey's once-promising democracy is torn between chaos and rising authoritarianism. And now Thailand has once again succumbed to military rule. Under such conditions, it's hard to imagine that the international community will wholeheartedly throw its weight behind the unpredictable Lady. The countries of the West, who have generally taken Aung San Suu Kyi's side, insist on categorizing Burma as a success story not only because of the presumed success of its "democratization," but also due to geostrategic interests. Here, for example, is what President Obama, said about Burma in his recent speech to graduates of the US military academy:

…[W]e have seen political reforms opening a once closed society; a movement by Burmese leadership away from partnership with North Korea in favor of engagement with America and our allies…. If Burma succeeds we will have gained a new partner without having fired a shot.

Given its ambiguous endgame, its weak credibility, and the changing domestic and international context, the opposition's amendment campaign is likely to fall short of its declared goal before the 2015 elections. The leader of the campaign, however, may have a very different perception of what counts as success.

Min Zin is the Burma blogger for Foreign Policy's "Democracy Lab," where this article first appeared on June 5, 2014.

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Typewriters, Telegrams Cling to Life in Burma

Posted: 05 Jun 2014 05:00 PM PDT

Rangoon

A woman offers phone service in downtown Rangoon. (Photo: Reuters)

RANGOON — Perched on a stool on a bustling sidewalk in Burma's biggest city, an elderly gentleman pecks away on a clunky manual typewriter. It's a will, Aung Myint says, barely looking up as his fingers rise high over the keys and hammer down with a steady sense of purpose.

He points with his chin to the stack of papers he still needs to get through before he heads home, 30 or more, many of them legal papers hastily delivered by lawyers who work at the courthouse down the street.

Reminders of a bygone era cling stubbornly and quaintly in Burma, a country that was in many ways frozen in time during a half-century of dictatorship and self-imposed isolation. Now, three years into the Southeast Asian country's bumpy transition to democracy, smartphones and computer shops are common, but so are phone stands and typists. Even telegrams have not quite made their exit.

Aung Myint says his work is steady enough, but a far cry from the days of military rule, when he spent most of his time typing up authors' novels for submission to the now-defunct censorship board. He rarely broke for lunch back then, often working by candlelight well after shops were shuttered and businessmen had long gone home.

How does the 67-year-old manage to keep going as his country belatedly joins the computer age? He says there are still those who feel a document lacks an authentic air unless it's pulled from the roll of a manual typewriter.

Plus, he adds, there are several benefits to typing.

"You don't need to waste time with printing," Aung Myint said. "And if you make a mistake, you can just erase it and type over it. It's easier."

Not far from the typist, Thin Thin Nu has a table on the sidewalk with five clunky, push-button phones. Such stands remain a common sight in Rangoon, though less so than they were a few years ago.

Thin Thin Nu said many people use her phones only because their mobile phone batteries have died. But with a monastery and a school less than 100 meters away, she gets plenty of other business. Monks call their families in faraway villages. Impatient kids ring their moms to say they are waiting to be picked up.

She's also a line of communication for young lovers.

"When girls are talking to their boyfriends, they lean in as close as they can to the tree next to the table, picking at the bark, or nervously twisting the iron chain around its trunk," Thin Thin Nu says.

"Other times they'll fight, banging down the receiver wildly. I've even been asked to lie, to tell the voice on the other end of the line, 'She is not here anymore,' when the girl is sitting right across from me."

Thin Thin Nu makes only about US$15 a day, less than half what she was making before the country of 60 million started opening up. But she thinks she can hang on a while longer. Most people in Rangoon and the rest of Burma remain desperately poor, and her service, offered for 50 kyat (less than 5 cents) a minute, is still the best deal they can get.

Poverty does not quite explain why government telegraph offices are still running. The few customers who saunter into the Rangoon office, sometimes hours apart, are now mostly bank employees, sending undecipherable coded messages to offices in far-flung corners of the country that have yet to enter the digital age.

Than Tin, a 58-year-old, salt-and-pepper-haired clerk, remembers his first days in the grand, British colonial-era building. A thousand people used to line up in the cavernous waiting hall, eager to send love letters, appeals for cash and other urgent missives to remote villages and faraway lands.

"It was a cool job back then," he said, peering over the counter into the now near-empty waiting room.

"It's not that it's boring, really," he sighs. "But yes, it's pretty clear times are changing."

The post Typewriters, Telegrams Cling to Life in Burma appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

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