Shan Herald Agency for News |
- To Hopeland and Back (Part XII) Day 17
- To Hopeland and Back (Part XII) Day 16
- To Hopeland and Back (Part XII) Day 8
- To Hopeland and Back (Part XII) Day 7
- To Hopeland and Back (Part XII) Day 6
- To Hopeland and Back (Part XII) Day 5
| To Hopeland and Back (Part XII) Day 17 Posted: 20 Apr 2015 04:45 AM PDT Day Seventeen. Tuesday, 31 March 2015 The highlight of the day is the visit by the President himself "to pull a propaganda coup", according to his opponents.  "I was watching the TV reportage last evening and was so happy that I couldn't go to sleep," he tells us. All right, I say to myself. This may a publicity stunt. But you have to concede that it is also the culmination of his offer given 3 years and 7 months ago. What would have happened to him if there weren't this day for him to make the most of? A signing ceremony to mark the completion of the NCA drafting is presided over by him. Which is later criticized by some. "You hadn't finished reviewing your draft, and you signed it?" asks an incredulous scholar who is considered an authority on peace processes around the world. "That is a very risky way of doing things." Later in the day, U Aung Min has time to chat with me. "Are you happy with the draft?" is my question. His answer: "The draft has 18 pages, 7 chapters, 33 articles and 86 clauses. But three guarantees stand out among them: That this country will be federal, that there will be exemption from Unlawful Association Act, and that there will be political dialogue. What more could I ask for?" He ends his reply with his favorite passage from one of Sai Kham Leik's greatest hits: Making what is easy difficult That is the way of the world I know what he means. He had wanted a shorter NCA, a one-page document, to be able to start the Political Dialogue as soon as possible. But the peace process that the President and himself had spawned also happens to have a life of its own which either has little control. So what comes nect? According to the draft NCA, the roadmap to peace has 7 steps:
There is also the time factor. The President has promised with his Deed of Commitment (DOC) on 12 February the political dialogue will be inaugurated before the elections in November. Which means there are only 5 months to complete the first 3 steps: April-May – Signing of NCA June-July – Agreement of Framework August – Political dialogue launched September-October – Election Campaign November – General Elections If all goes according to plan, work committees will be formed to work on the dialogue topics before a new legislature and a new government are installed by March 2016.  Even so, the completion of the NCA draft has only managed to chop one of the Hydra's heads. Already two more has emerged: Getting the Yes from each and every one of the EAOs concerned and getting it signed. And it will only be the end of the first step. Unless we have a firebrand and someone like Iolaus to hold it and use it, our Herculeses are going to have a hard time beating our 7 headed Hydra. At least that is how it looks to me. |
| To Hopeland and Back (Part XII) Day 16 Posted: 20 Apr 2015 04:44 AM PDT Day Sixteen. Monday, 30 March 2015 So after an 8-day suspense, we are all back. My worries, fortunately, have not taken shape. The 7th NCA meeting, Party two, is on. The magic is still there.  It begins with a wish-well message from the Union Assembly Speaker Thura Shwe Mann. Then the two sides are off to tackle their 4 remaining contentious points.
One surprising thing about it is on the narcotics issue. The government's initial 8 point guideline had called for cooperation against drugs, among others. But when it was brought up by the NCCT, the UPWC had rejected. I ask U Aung Min, during the break what happened? "The UPWC was worried the EAOs would use it as an excuse to gain recruits, "he explains. "But we later decided we might have been overly suspicious." The day ends with the agreement to straighten out the wordings in the text tomorrow. |
| To Hopeland and Back (Part XII) Day 8 Posted: 20 Apr 2015 04:42 AM PDT Day Eight. Sunday, 22 March 2015 I hope the officials are not fooling us when they tell us there are 913 "national races", according to the last head count which was conducted last year. Which is even more than what I had heard from the population minister U Khin Yee last February: 750.  The information comes about while we are waiting for the NCCT and the UPWC to formulate a solution to the 4 points of disagreements that will be discussed today. One of which is about having a separate "ethnic representatives" category to participate in the planned political dialogue. "How come?" I ask. "Last year's census was supposed to have chop down the number from 135 to something like half of it, wasn't it?" A UPWC member who didn't join his fellow members into their private brainstorming session explains: "This is how it goes. If your father is, say, a Shan and your mother, a Kachin, it means you have acquired a new identity: a Shan-Kachin. You then marry, say, a Mon and have children. They no longer bear your ethnic identity but a new one, that is Shan-Kachin-Mon. The latest figure, 913, was achieved in this way." If it's true, then, somebody is obviously trying to further muddy the already murky waters, not to clear them. Understandably, the two sides, try as they may, are not able to come up with an acceptable solution on any of the remaining major 4 points, including the following new one which is being discussed today: Interim Arrangement. The UPWC proposes a new clause: local development programs in accordance with the requirements of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiatives (EITI). The NCCT point out while it is not against the EITI, which the country has applied for membership, what has already been agreed between the two sides in December is a different clause. I ask what they are, while the two sides return to their private brainstorming rooms and this is the answer:
"Without these, there is no guarantee for the EAO during the interim period," says a grizzled NCCT leading member. The day however is not without agreements. One of them is: Submission of the NCA to the Union Assembly in accordance with the procedures for ratification. If there is a fly in the ointment today, then it is a report that comes toward the end of the day's session after the two sides agree to meet again on 30-31 March: Burmese fighter planes attacking KIA outposts at 15:15. According to a government report, the military was pursuing a convoy of contraband timber that was taking a passage through the KIA territory in Mansi township, Bhamo district, near the Sino-Burmese border. The KIA retorted the accusation by saying as the consignment was coming from government-controlled areas, it was just a lame excuse and just another violation of the agreement to deescalate the fighting. Which puts many of those concerned panic-stricken. Will there be a 7th NCA meeting, part two at all? Which includes myself, for I have learned to respect and admire negotiators on both sides for their patience, tolerance and reason. But as things prove later, all of us who hanker for peace are not going to be disappointed. At least on that score. |
| To Hopeland and Back (Part XII) Day 7 Posted: 20 Apr 2015 04:41 AM PDT Day seven. Saturday, 21 March 2015  All in all, this 7th meeting should be considered a very pleasant one. Because both sides are participating in the discussions with good intent. I'm sure that is how we are going to reach the results that we all want. The first item of the day is how best to word the SSR/DDR in the third step of the roadmap, in a way that satisfies both the Commander-in-Chief's directive and the needs of both sides. The two negotiation teams then retreat each into its den to do its wordplay. The one that finishes first (I won't tell here which one) then knocks on the other side's door and asks whether he can make some suggestions that may help save a lot of time for both. The other side says yes, and allows him to go in and he reads out his team's draft choice of words and bows out. The other side deliberates and then in a few minutes, they are back in the meeting hall to reach agreement on the third step of the 7-step political roadmap (the first being NCA signing and the second, drafting and adoption on the Framework for Political Dialogue): Based on the adopted framework, national level political dialogues will be held; matters and procedures related to security related reintegration will be discussed and those that should be carried out will be carried out by mutual consent (unofficial translation) The suspense which has been hanging for two days is now lifted. Which again calls for a clapping of hands. It seems to me it is unusually louder this time. Personally, I think the only problem with it is the Burmese word for 'carry out' which can be translated either as 'sawng-ywet' or 'lok-sawng'. In English, you may say 'those that should be carried out will be carried out by mutual consent'. However, in Burmese, it is somewhat of a jolt to read 'those that should be sawng-ywet will be lok-sawng by mutual consent.' I naturally ask what happened? And this is the answer I get: the military representatives have their order that the word 'lok-sawng' is not interchangeable. Other discussion points of the day are:
The NCCT's counter-proposal is:
By the end of the day, what was achieved is mutual and greater understanding of the problems surrounding the points of discussion. At least that can be considered positive. But tomorrow will be the last day of the meeting and we hope agreement is reached on them. There is also one key question that is yet to be touched. All participants who are Christians then decide the morning will be spent asking for divine guidance at their places of worships and request that the meeting resumes in the afternoon. Needless to say, they receive a unanimous Yes. |
| To Hopeland and Back (Part XII) Day 6 Posted: 20 Apr 2015 04:40 AM PDT Day Six Friday, 20 March 2015 The one thing the NCCT and its government counterpart, the UPWC, do each time they run into a hitch during the negotiations is for each to retreat into separate rooms to brainstorm how to go about it. After each has found a likely solution, they emerge from the rooms to resume their parley.  That is exactly what they are doing when I arrive at the main meeting hall at 10:00. So all of us observers including the UN special envoy Vijay Nambiar and his assistant Ms Marianne Hager drift to the corridor where you can have coffee, tea and snack. I ask Ms Hager what she thinks about the process undergoing in Burma and she says, "From international perspective, both sides are doing a good job." Mr Nambiar who arrives later also voices the same opinion. The first issue they are dealing with today is the supervisory structure for the Joint Monitoring Committee (JMC) and the Joint Union Political Dialogue Committee (JUPDC) after their return from their dens. The NCCT proposes that since both sides hold joint responsibility for the success of the peace process (and the UPWC refuses to form a joint supervisory committee) there is only one way to deal with problems in the aftermath of the signing of the NCA: To hold regular meeting of the signatories. The UPWC replies it is also having the same line of thinking. It therefore accepts the NCCT proposition. That brings the first hand clapping of the day. This new mechanism is named Joint NCA Implementation Meeting (JNIM). The next one –DDR negotiations that the UPWC's military representatives insist must go together with the Political Dialogue (PD) ̶ is tougher. They were trying hard yesterday. And today they are giving a going-over it again. The NCCT's concern is that the government may follow the footsteps of its predecessors: "In 2005, the Palaung State Liberation Army (PSLA) and the Shan State National Army (SSNA) were forcibly disarmed," says its speaker of the day. "It was followed by the disarmament of the Shan State Nationalities People's Liberation Organization (SNPLO) in 2008. A year later, the Border Guard Force (BGF) program was implemented. The Kokang (official name: Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army) that refused to transform was attacked. What's taking place today in Kokang area (since 9 February, when the MNDAA returned in force) is the outcome of 2009." "We accept that in one country, there must be only one military," he continues. "But at the same time, we need a period (and a procedure) for transformation." During the break, one NCCT member remarks that since SSR/DDR is going to be one of the dialogue topics in the PD, he doesn't understand why the military wants to include it as a separate matter in the text. But toward the end of the day's session, it becomes clear: The military representatives are under irrevocable order by the Commander-in-Chief to have the SSR/DDR negotiation in it, or else. Guess how I know. It is also during the break, I overhear one UPWC member telling a foreign observer, "The DDR is a very sensitive matter to the EAOs." When I ask an NCCT member what he thinks about it, he says, "Well, the SSR appears to be a sensitive matter to the military too, doesn't it?" The day ends with the UPWC saying it perfectly understands what the NCCT's concern is. The problem now is not about the principle, but how to word it. Hopefully, they are able to work it out tomorrow. |
| To Hopeland and Back (Part XII) Day 5 Posted: 20 Apr 2015 04:39 AM PDT Day Five. Thursday, 19 March 20115 Today the first thing I hear before entering the meeting hall is Yup Zau Hkawng giving a slick answer to a hard question: Who are you going to support for President: U Thein Sein, U Shwe Mann, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, or Senior Gen Min Aung Hlaing?  He is anything but hesitant about it. "We don't know who's going to be President, do we?" he asks rhetorically, "But I urge everyone to support any candidate that promises continuation of the peace process. Because without peace, this won't be a country worth living". I give him a thumbs up before going into the meeting hall. The three topics to be discussed today are:
On the first issue, it should be understood that successive Burmese government, have refused to recognize the armed groups fighting against them as "revolutionaries", "rebels" or "resistance fighters". The official term for them in English is "insurgents" but the official rendering in Burmese of the word is "Thaung Gyan Thu," meaning "One who goes on a rampage" or more simply "troublemaker" instead of Tha Bone the usual euphemism for "rebel". After more than a year of wrangling over it, the UPWC offers the following phrase to be inserted in Article 2d, Chapter 2, "Aims and Objectives". "Understanding the political aspirations based on Taw Hlan Ye of the ethnic armed organizations…" The NCCT, after consultation among themselves, finally decides it is probably the best they can expect at present and gives its nod. The first clapping hands of the day follows. With the second topic, the two sides are still unable to find a suitable solution. The NCCT's interesting argument on the subject is as follows: "What our founding fathers should have done before the drafting of the Union Constitution in 1947 was to form a joint supervisory committee between the ruling Burmese party Anti-Fascist People's Freedom League (AFPFL) and the non-Burman's Supreme Council of the United Hill Peoples (SCOUHP) formed in Panglong to produce the first draft of the union constitution. It could have served as an effective deterrent against the war from breaking out. "We therefore are in need of a joint committee to oversee the JMC and JUPDC". To which one UPWC member commented during a break: "Nothing's going to be finished, if they keep returning to Panglong (to bolster their arguments)". The gentleman obviously doesn't notice me. Or maybe he just doesn't care. Not surprisingly, the two sides does not reach consensus on the question. One good thing about the meeting is that the two sides have learned not to waste too much time arguing over what can't be agreed but to reconsider it and meet again after both sides have cooled down. In the meanwhile they skip it to discuss another topic. The next one is the security-related reintegration, translated as DDR by the UPWC. During the 6th meeting in September, the DDR had been placed at Step 3 of the peace roadmap, between Step 2: Negotiations/adoption on the Framework for Political Dialogue and the next step: Launch of Political Dialogue. Understandably it had worried the NCCT. "Does it mean that the PD will not start if we do not surrender?" asked one of its members. But this time, the approach is different. "There are countries that conduct the PD and DDR at the same time," one of the generals elaborates. "It doesn't mean you have to surrender first. We know that PD after surrender is impossible." He is obviously pushing for the inclusion of DDR negotiations in the Political Dialogue stage. Which, according to one NCCT member, is needless. "Because it is going to be one of the dialogue topics anyway. But maybe the military wants to make sure and have it written in the Single Text," he tells me. The NCCT's response is that to its understanding, the Security Sector Reform (SSR) must be negotiated before that DDR. "It is clear that we have different concepts of the Security-related Reintegration, which needs to be discussed further," he says.  The day ends with a closing remark by a UPWC representative on the urgent necessity of the NCA. "On the first day, I had reported that from 2011-2013, we had 1,400 clashes and that in 2014 the number went down to 68," he says. "But I would like to remind all of us today that the year has only just begun but we have already fought 32 times." During the evening we have dinner with some of the pros. The topic is inevitably the DDR. One remarks, "Political considerations comes first: Civilian supremacy which means the President is the Commander-in Chief and the Defense Minister is a civilian:" The other, while not objecting the first, has his own opinion.
"Then, we can have DDR", he concludes. I don't know if one can take them as gospel, since all the comments come from a drinking party. But they certainly are food for thought, or as the late Shan leader Chao Tzang Yawnghwe (1939-2011) used to say, think pieces. |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Shan Herald Agency for News To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.