Friday, January 18, 2019

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine

AA Must Give Up Goal of Confederation: Myanmar Military

Posted: 18 Jan 2019 06:37 AM PST

The Myanmar military (or Tatmadaw) said peace talks with the Arakan Army would be able to move forward only when the AA changes its political view and gives up its goal of Rakhine becoming part of a confederation of states.

Tatmadaw leaders held a press conference regarding the current situation in Rakhine State and the ongoing peace process in Naypyitaw on Friday.

"It depends on the AA whether they join the path of political negotiation," said Major-General Soe Naing Oo, the chairman of the Tatmadaw's True News Information Team, on whether the Tatmadaw would hold political negotiations with the group.

"We will think about whether to move forward, depending on the AA's actions," he said. "They have spoken of a confederation [as their preferred political system], but that is the opposite direction from the current path to building a democratic federal union that the government, Tatmadaw and the people have agreed upon."

He reiterated the Tatmadaw's stance that the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA)—agreement on which was achieved after many hurdles had been overcome—has all the elements needed to build a democratic federal union.

The Tatmadaw announced a unilateral ceasefire applying to its five Military Commands in the north and northeast of Myanmar on Dec. 21 after three ethnic armed groups (EAOs) released a statement claiming they would give up armed struggle and seek a political settlement. The groups were the Ta'ang Nationalities Liberation Army (TNLA), the AA and Kokang-based Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA).

However, fighting between the Tatmadaw and AA troops continues in western Myanmar. Tensions mounted after the AA attacked police outposts in Rakhine State's Buthidaung Township on Jan. 4.

There were more than 170 clashes between the AA and the Tatmadaw's troops between March 2015 and Jan. 16 of this year. Some 60 AA soldiers and undisclosed numbers of Tatmadaw soldiers have died in the clashes, and the Tatmadaw has seized weapons and ammunitions from the AA, according to Major -General Tun Tun Nyi, the vice chair of the Tatmadaw's True News Information Team.

He declined to reveal the number of casualties sustained by the Tatmadaw, saying the Tatmadaw "does not release such data on casualties unnecessarily" while operations are ongoing.

The AA has consistently published information on captured soldiers or police and seized ammunition and weaponry over the past four years, releasing pictures and videos. According to the group, dozens of Myanmar military soldiers have been killed.

On Friday, Tatmadaw generals justified the exclusion of the Western Military Command from their truce by saying that Rakhine is still under threat from the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, adding that they do not consider the AA to be based in Rakhine.

"The AA was initiated in the Laiza area" in the Kachin Independence Army's stronghold "and still based there, thus the truce was intended for the northern and northeast based EAOs," said Maj-Gen. Tun Tun Nyi.

He said the Tatmadaw is acting to prevent further attacks by ARSA in the west, particularly in the
Mayu mountains, near Buthidaung and Maungdaw townships, where ARSA launched coordinated attacks against Border Guard Police outposts in October 2016 and August 2017.

The Army would "completely destroy ARSA, if they happen to enter into these areas," he said.

Another spokesperson, Brigadier-General Zaw Min Tun, added that engagements between the Tatmadaw and troops belonging to EAOs are between combatants, which are different from attacks upon police.

"Police are not combatants. Thus the AA took advantage, like ARSA, by attacking outposts with less security [in Rakhine State]… and it is an attack on the government mechanism," he added

Thus, the generals said they were following instruction by State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to destroy the insurgency, as the AA were regarded as insurgents.

The Army quoted Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, saying that, "State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi said the AA is an insurgent group at a meeting on Jan. 7 at the Presidential House. She instructed us to effectively crush the AA and if not, there will be finger-pointing that [the Tatmadaw] does not crush the AA as it is an ethnic group, but it crushed ARSA, who practice a different religion."

It added "The President's Office order on Jan. 4 instructed the Tatmadaw to coordinate with the police and to use more military force and to use military aircraft to crack down on the AA."

The generals said that while the Tatmadaw has the right to act independently under Chapter 7 of the Constitution (which confers upon the Commander in Chief the right to exercise absolute power to safeguard the country), they would work together with the government when important matters come up.

Article 339 of Chapter 7 states that "The Defense Services shall lead in safeguarding the Union against all internal and external dangers."

Seven and a half years of fighting between the Tatmadaw and EAOs in the northeast, north and west have left some 180,000 internally displaced people sheltering in some 167 camps in government-controlled areas, according to the Tatmadaw. There are another more than 37,000 IDPs are taking shelter in EAO-controlled areas.

The officers also talked about the Tatmadaw's stance on the current peace process. Regarding the issues of a single army and self-determination, Maj-Gen. Soe Naing Oo added that the Tatmadaw stands firmly by its policy that there can be only one Army, as in any other country. It said the issue of self-determination would have to be resolved in accordance with the NCA.

In addition, the general reiterated the Tatmadaw's policy towards the EAOs by saying that, "We want to officially tell the EAOs that if they want to take part in politics, they must disown armed struggle and form political parties; if they want to enter business, they must establish a company, and if they want to protect the country—join the Army."

The generals reaffirmed that the Tatmadaw firmly intends to achieve peace for the people by 2020, as the Army chief envisioned one-and-a-half years ago.

However, fighting continues between EAOs based in Shan State despite the announcement of a four-month truce. There was one engagement between the Tatmadaw and the RCSS near Mong Pan on Dec. 27; the Tatmadaw accused the RCSS of attacking one of its military columns.

The generals added that they had fulfilled the demands of the ethnic groups that the Tatmadaw initiate a unilateral ceasefire, which had started with five military commands, but added, "look what is happening now" in the northeast, citing that the inter-ethnic fighting.

The Army said troop movements by almost every EAO in the region—RCSS, SSPP, KIA, TNLA, MNDAA and UWSA—continued. They accused some EAOs of conducting new recruitment of local residents and extorting money.

The Tatmadaw added that it had been wrongly blamed for the interethnic fighting in Shan State, where the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) and the Ta'ang Nationalities Liberation Army (TNLA), Shan State Progressive Party/Shan State Army North (SSPP/SSAN) are fighting, as well as the Pa'O National Liberation Organization.

EAOs often accuse the Tatmadaw of using a divide and rule policy in states with different EAOs and local militia groups.

Citing the continuous clashes in Shan State, the Tatmadaw warned the EAOs that if any of the groups violated section 5, 6 and 7 of its truce, they would take the necessary actions.

Section 5 urges all EAOs to "comply with four of its policies: to respect the ceasefire agreements, not to exploit the peace agreements, not to burden local residents, and to abide by existing laws. In section 6, the Tatmadaw urges "the EAOs not to have interethnic fighting and not to cause a burden to the local residents." In section 7, the Tatmadaw says, "EAOs must take responsibility not to destroy the government's administrative mechanism, not to damage the livelihoods of the people and to ensure safety in road transport."

"The Army won't tolerate any violations of these section 5, 6 and 7," added Maj-Gen. Soe Naing Oo.

As regards the rise of demands for a confederation and having their own states made by some minority ethnic groups like the AA and Kachin groups based in exile, the Tatmadaw made it clear that it "won't tolerate damaging the Three National Causes."

The post AA Must Give Up Goal of Confederation: Myanmar Military appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Four Years on, Justice Yet to be Found for Kachin Teachers Raped and Murdered 

Posted: 18 Jan 2019 05:14 AM PST

Justice is yet to be found in the case of the two Kachin schoolteachers who were raped and killed in their hut in Kaung Kha Village of Kutkai Township, Shan State as the police continue to investigate the case four years on.

But the case is not forgotten in the hearts of the Kachin community. The families, mentors and colleagues of the victims will hold a memorial service for the two volunteer teachers, Maran Lu Ra and Tangbau Hkawn Nan Tsin, in Kaung Kha on Saturday to mark four years since their murder.

Both women were 20 years old and worked with the Kachin Baptist Convention (KBC) to provide education to children in the region, when they were murdered on Jan. 19, 2015.

At the time of the incident, soldiers from the Myanmar Army's Infantry Battalion 503 were present in the small village and 28 soldiers were suspected of involvement in the double murder. But the KBC was since told that each of the soldiers' DNA had been tested and that they did not match that found on the bodies.

Brang Dee, a lawyer from the Kachin Lawyers Network which provides legal advice to the KBC, told The Irrawaddy on Friday that the case is "still in the investigation stage as the culprits have not yet been identified and it is not able to bring charges."

The KBC has been consistently calling for justice for these two Kachin women, but have not yet been able find get it.

"Even though it has been four years, we feel like it was yesterday. It was an act against our whole ethnic community," said Rev. Hkalam Sam Sun, chairman of the KBC in a message to the public on Tuesday.

He added, "I was told to forget about these volunteer teachers' cases by a [Myanmar Military] commander last year. I told him that as Christians, we know well about forgiveness and having patience and letting go of pain, but we must work to get the truth. We want to reveal who the culprits are."

The post Four Years on, Justice Yet to be Found for Kachin Teachers Raped and Murdered  appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Police Investigate Suspected Burglary of Ancient Pagoda in Bago Region

Posted: 18 Jan 2019 04:49 AM PST

PROME, Bago Region — Police in Bago Region are investigating the suspected burglary of an ancient pagoda in the World Heritage site of Sri Ksetra but say nothing was stolen.

Sri Ksetra was one of three walled and moated cities of the Pyu Kingdom — which flourished for more than 1,000 years between 200 BC and A.D. 900 — inscribed on the World Heritage List in 2014. The pagoda in question is believed to have been built between A.D. 4 and 9.

"The security guard reported to us after he spotted broken bricks on the top of the Lay Myet Hnar pagoda while patrolling along the heritage zone yesterday," Lieutenant Zeya Lin, of Prome Township’s Police Station No. 3, told The Irrawaddy on Friday.

"So we have opened a case under Section 26 of the Protection and Preservation of Cultural Regions Law. We will identify the vandals," he added.

U Soe Min, assistant director of the Department of Archaeology, National Museum and Library for Sri Ksetra, told The Irrawaddy that there was nothing valuable inside the temple.

Lay Myet Hnar pagoda, in Bago Region, as seen from the top. / Kaung Myat Min / The Irrawaddy

"It must be connected with smuggling of artefacts in the zone," he said of the suspected burglary, adding that his department has received reports of artefact trafficking in the area but yet to catch anyone.

"We are cooperating with police to prevent this," he said.

A waterproof concrete layer on top of the pagoda was damaged, but it is not part of the original structure, said U Soe Min.

"The temple is ancient heritage, but the waterproof concrete layer is not. It was done before [Sri Ksetra] was inscribed on the UNESCO World Heritage List. It is not original concrete. But [damaging it] is still an offence under the law," he said.

In November, signboards and a bridge in the zone were vandalized, a visitor’s motorbike was stolen, and a couple was robbed by a group of men. The vandalism was the first of its kind in a decade, prompting the Archeology Department to start nighttime patrols.

Translated from Burmese by Thet Ko Ko.

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Exile Group Declares ‘Independence’ for Kachin State

Posted: 18 Jan 2019 03:42 AM PST

The Kachin National Organization (KNO), a Kachin exile group, ended its conference in Chiang Mai, northern Thailand early this week with an announcement declaring Kachin to be an independent country.

Over 200 Kachin community leaders including rights activists and representatives of political parities and literary and cultural organizations attended the three-day conference from Jan. 12-14. The delegates unanimously decided to declare independence for Kachin.

Naw Latt, a spokesperson for the KNO, told The Irrawaddy on Friday that, "When we look at the situation in Kachin State, including political conflicts, armed conflicts and Kachin refugees, we are not happy about it."

He added: "The central government has not delivered the political rights sought by the Kachin people. The Army has even blocked humanitarian aid to our refugees. We made this decision to announce our independence after analyzing the situation in Kachin State. All representatives at the meeting agreed to declare Kachin an independent country," he said.

Most ethnic Kachin live in northern Myanmar near the Chinese border. Under British rule before independence, the Kachin were to allowed to govern their own affairs to a large extent.

"We have a history of ruling our own region. Therefore, the Kachin will have no problem establishing our own independent country," Naw Latt said.

The announcement was met with heavy criticism on Facebook. Kachin residents of Myitkyina reported that Myanmar Army (or Tatmadaw) helicopters could be seen flying above the town and Laiza yesterday. Some locals interpreted this as a sign that the Tatmadaw and government were displeased by the KNO's announcement.

Gumgrawng Awng Hkam, the chairman of the Kachin Democratic Party (KDP) based in Myitkyina, said his party didn't attend the meeting in Chiang Mai, but he heard that other Kachin political parties had attended.

"They announced independence. But the KNO was acting on its own authority. Personally, I think they should consult ethnic Kachin residing in Kachin State. They should have held a referendum before announcing this. Then it would have a strong impact," Gumgrawng Awng Hkam said.

He did not consider Kachin to be independent as a result of the announcement, he said.

The KNO's use of the word "independence" in its announcement caught the attention many Kachin in the state, according to Gumgrawng Awng Hkam.

Before the country won independence from the British in 1947, Kachin leaders asked the Union government to let them rule their own region as an independence state, but the central government has never allowed that to happen, Gumgrawng Awng Hkam said.

"It is quite natural for the people. They want independence for their region. But there are those who agree with the KNO statement and those who disagree," he said.

Kachin State did not yet have the structures required for independence, Naw Latt said, though he added that Kachin leaders could learn the necessary procedures from the international community.

In the past, when Shan groups announced independence for Shan State, it prompted the Myanmar government and Army to take action against them.

Instead of taking similar action, Naw Latt said, the government should consider its response to the KNO announcement carefully because the Kachin living in Kachin State itself are suffering. The government needs to find the best solution for the Kachin issue, he said, otherwise, the people will take matters into their own hands.

On his Facebook account, General Gun Maw from the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) posted a comment by Khin Zaw Oo, a former Myanmar Army general who serves as the Myanmar Peace Commission's secretary, in which he asked the KIO for its view on the KNO's announcement. Gen. Gun Maw responded that Khin Zaw Oo should ask the KNO directly.

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Irrawaddy Region Deputy Speaker Submits Resignation

Posted: 18 Jan 2019 12:30 AM PST

PATHEIN—The deputy speaker of the Irrawaddy regional parliament has handed his resignation to parliament following his expulsion from the National League for Democracy (NLD) for the alleged misappropriation of funds.

"He has verbally asked to me to allow him to resign, but I haven't approved his resignation," Irrawaddy Region parliamentary speaker U Aung Kyaw Khaing told The Irrawaddy.

The Irrawaddy regional chapter of the ruling party will hold a meeting with U San Min Aung which will also be attended by U Myo Nyunt, a member of the NLD's central. A decision on U San Min Aung's resignation will be made during the meeting, said U Aung Kyaw Khaing.

The Irrawaddy has not been able to contact U San Min Aung for his comments.

Following the filing of a complaint by a Pathein resident against deputy speaker U San Min Aung, who allegedly embezzled government funds in the purchase of five vehicles for the regional parliament, the NLD party launched an internal investigation into the case in December, leading to his dismissal following a meeting of the party's central executive committee on Jan. 13.

U Myo Nyunt, who is also a spokesperson for the NLD, said that the ruling party would inform the Irrawaddy regional parliament and the national anti-graft body of the financial matters of U San Min Aung so that necessary action can be taken against him.

"They may take necessary action according to their procedures depending on our report," U Myo Nyunt told The Irrawaddy.

U San Min Aung, 38, worked as a lawyer before his success in the 2015 election in Bogale Township, Irrawaddy Region after which he was appointed deputy parliamentary speaker.

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Yangon Sets Date For Municipal Elections

Posted: 17 Jan 2019 10:33 PM PST

YANGON — Municipal elections will be held in Yangon on March 31, according to the city’s Municipal Election Commission.

The elections will be held under the new Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC) Law, which came into effect on June 28 and supplements the 2013 Municipal Law.

There will be a total of 105 seats up for grabs, 99 at the township level — three seats each in 33 townships — and six for the YCDC's executive board, U Aung Khine, chairman of the Municipal Election Commission, told reporters on Wednesday.

The YCDC's executive board initially consisted of nine members — the mayor, four appointed members and four elected individuals — but has been expanded to add two more elected positions.

One of the six elected members will become the vice mayor, a post created by the new law to ease the workload of the mayor of Myanmar's largest city and commercial capital.

Candidates are to submit applications to contest the elections from Jan. 18 to 28, said U Aung Khine. Candidates for township-level positions are allowed to spend up to 10 million kyats ($6,519) while those running for the executive board may spend twice that, he added.

The list of qualified candidates will be announced in the second week of February. According to eligibility criteria, candidates must have been born to Myanmar citizens, must be more than 25 years old, must have lived for three consecutive years in the township they intend to represent, must not owe taxes to the YCDC, and must be loyal to the country.

Myanmar Army personnel and their family members who live in cantonments, as well as police and their family members who live in police staff quarters, are barred from casting votes in the election, according to the Municipal Election Commission.

Yangon saw its first-ever municipal elections in December 2014.

One month after the National League for Democracy took office in April 2016, the Yangon mayor announced that the YCDC by-laws had been amended so that the elected members' terms coincided with the government’s.

The Yangon chief minister then sent notices of dismissal to the sitting elected members, who had assumed they would serve until the next election.

The new YCDC Law, unlike its previous version, allows for the replacement and recall of appointed and elected members.

According to the new law, the term of the committee coincides with that of the president, and municipal elections must be held within three months of a new government taking office.

Translated from Burmese by Thet Ko Ko.

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Thai Universities Tap into Rising Chinese Demand

Posted: 17 Jan 2019 09:05 PM PST

BANGKOK—Chinese national Cherry He Ting rattles off in fluent Thai as she presents her masters thesis ahead of graduating from a Bangkok university, where she has studied for the past three and a half years.

The 28-year-old history student is among thousands of Chinese who join Thai universities every year, according to Thai government data, which shows their annual enrolment numbers have doubled since 2012.

Hit by years of declining enrolment of Thai students, the institutions are scrambling to meet this recent surge in demand as Chinese students look for alternatives to Western schools.

Chada Triamvithaya, an academic at King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang who has been researching Chinese migration patterns in Thailand, said universities currently make twice the amount in tuition fees from Chinese students as they do from locals.

“Apart from private universities, state universities, even one for Buddhist monks, are now creating courses aimed at attracting Chinese students. It is all about the money,” she said, adding that the lure of rising Chinese demand in Thai education has already attracted Chinese investment into the sector.

Thai universities offer more affordable overseas study for Chinese students, compared with more popular destinations like Australia, the United States and Britain, Diane Hu, assistant professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University told Reuters.

Many of these Chinese students come from the largely rural, southern provinces, hoping to escape a highly competitive but poor education system back home and land well-paying jobs in Southeast Asia’s second biggest economy.

“Further interest in southern provinces can be attributed to heightened trade ties between the two countries and Belt and Road-driven initiatives,” Hu said.

China’s Belt and Road program promotes expanding land and sea links between Asia, Africa and Europe, with billions of dollars pledged for infrastructure development.

Chinese students say Thailand offers better prospects because of lower tuition fees and friendlier visa rules than in the West.

Studying for an undergraduate business degree costs up to 120,000 baht ($3,700) a year in Thailand, while tuition fees for a similar course can range from $8,000 in Singapore to over $60,000 a year at some US universities.

Chinese students are also facing greater scrutiny in countries like the United States, where the Trump administration is considering new background checks and other restrictions over growing espionage concerns.

“If I work here I will have more opportunities than where I came from,” said Cherry, who first arrived in Chiang Rai in northern Thailand almost eight years ago as an exchange student.

She said she arrived by boat on the Mekong River from her hometown of Jinghong in southern China. She first studied tourism management at a university in Bangkok before doing a master degree in history at another university.

As many as 8,455 Chinese students enrolled in Thai universities in 2017, twice that in 2012. The total is as high as 30,000 across the country, according to research by the AsiaResearch Center for Migration at Chualongkorn University.

'Soft power'

Thai universities rank well below those in neighbors like Singapore and Malaysia, according to the Times Higher Education World University Ranking, both those countries have schools among Asia’s top 50 whereas Thailand’s top institution, Mahidol University, has slipped nearly 30 places in recent years to rank near 100 out of 400 schools across Asia.

Chinese demand has risen in spite of this, and both private and state universities now hope that rising foreign enrolment will help bring in more revenue and improve the quality of education.

“Chinese students are part of the soft power assertion of China into Thailand,” said Chada at King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology, adding the rising number of students has been followed by a rise in Chinese teachers, translators, and academics getting more jobs in the Thai education sector.

Woraphong Dechasasawat, the vice president of one of the country’s largest Chinese-language business schools, says the institution aims to find students from among the roughly three million Chinese who would struggle to find university placement back home each year.

“There will always be demand when you talk about China, it is about how ready are we in adapting to it,” he said.

Part of Dhurakij Pundit, one of the country’s largest private universities, the school started with 23 Chinese students in 2010 and now hosts about 3,700.

Some Chinese investors have even invested in private universities like Bangkok’s Krirk university, with plans to introduce more courses aimed at the Chinese market, according to media.

Many researchers believe this trend will continue as China looks to expand its influence across Southeast Asia and beyond.

“The Belt and Road initiative has led to more Chinese students going to study along its corridors in the past year through government scholarships,” Aksornsri Phanishsarn, an economist at Thammasat University told Reuters.

“But Thailand has seen its own surge as well due to large trade and tourism between the two countries,” said Aksornsri.

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Vietnam Prepares for Kim Jong Un Visit Amid Talk of Second Summit With Trump

Posted: 17 Jan 2019 09:01 PM PST

HANOI — Hanoi is preparing to receive North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for a state visit, two sources told Reuters, while officials and diplomats said Vietnam is keen to host a second summit between Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump.

A source familiar with the matter said Kim will travel to Vietnam for an official state visit after the Feb. 4-8 Lunar New Year. A separate source confirmed Kim’s visit but did not give any dates.

The United States and North Korea are holding high-level talks in Washington this week to discuss a second meeting between Trump and Kim to seek an “interim” deal to revitalize nuclear talks, U.S. and South Korean media have said.

Communist-ruled Vietnam, which has good relations with both the United States and North Korea, has been widely touted as the most likely venue for a second meeting.

The Southeast Asian country is keen to host the summit as a demonstration of its normalized ties with the United States, its foe during the Vietnam War, a Vietnamese government official and two diplomatic sources told Reuters.

The Vietnamese source did not confirm if a state visit by Kim would be combined with a U.S.-North Korean summit.

Media is heavily censored in Vietnam and the ruling Communist Party retains a tight control on information. The officials who spoke to Reuters did so on the strict condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the situation.

Vietnam’s foreign ministry did not respond to a request from Reuters for comment.

A U.S. Embassy spokeswoman in Hanoi said the embassy did not have anything to announce regarding the summit location, and referred questions to the White House.

Trump told reporters in Washington on Jan. 6 that the United States and North Korea were “negotiating a location” for a second summit and that “it will be announced probably in the not too distant future.” White House officials have declined to comment further.

Kim and Trump met for a historic summit in Singapore in June, but have since struggled to make progress towards denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.

Top North Korean officials, including former spy chief Kim Yong Chol, were seen at Beijing airport on Thursday and are believed to be headed to the United States for meetings with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and possibly Trump.

Asked about a possible high-level meeting this week, a State Department spokesman said: “We have no meetings to announce.”

“A1 visit” in Danang

Both Hanoi and the central Vietnam city of Danang have been viewed by analysts as possible locations for a second summit.

A senior Danang-based official said the city had not been asked to host such an event, but had received instructions to prepare for a possible “A1” visit, referring to a high-profile foreign leader.

A senior South Korean official earlier told Reuters that the United States has “various options” on the location, which would be decided after consultations with North Korea, while another official said that Vietnam is only one of the countries keen to host the summit.

Vietnam, which rose from the ashes of a victorious but costly war with the United States and transformed itself into one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies, has developed close strategic ties with Washington.

In 2016, Washington ended a decades-old arms embargo on Vietnam, and last year a U.S. aircraft carrier visited Vietnam for the first time since the end of the Vietnam War.

Vietnam’s exports to the United States, its largest export market, rose 14.3 percent last year to $47.53 billion, accounting for nearly 20 percent of Vietnam’s total exports.

North Korea can learn from Vietnam’s experience in building ties with the United States, said Le Dang Doanh, a Vietnamese economist and former government adviser who has given lectures to North Korean delegations visiting Vietnam.

“They asked a lot about how Vietnam can normalize relations with the United States after losing so many Vietnamese lives during the war,” Doanh said. “I told them we never forget the past, but we also look to the future.”

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Job Jitters Mount as China’s Factories Sputter Ahead of Lunar New Year

Posted: 17 Jan 2019 08:42 PM PST

DONGGUAN/HONG KONG — Wang Zhishen was thrilled when Danish shipper A.P. Moller-Maersk gave him two months’ paid leave, relishing the chance to spend time with his wife and daughters in China’s remote northwestern Gansu Province.

But his euphoria over what he thought was an unexpected bonus quickly turned to despair when Maersk fired Wang on Jan. 3, less than a month after he packed his bags in the southern Chinese manufacturing center of Dongguan.

Wang said he was one of 2,000 workers laid off at the company’s Dongguan transport container factory, which has been idle since early December, as the impact of a trade war between Washington and Beijing ripples through industries from logistics to autos and technology.

“I was sure it was a holiday,” said Wang, 35, who said he worked as a painter at Maersk for nearly six years until he was sacked two weeks ago via China’s WeChat messaging service.

Maersk, the world’s biggest container shipper, confirmed in an email to Reuters it had laid off 2,000 workers through “one-on-one” phone calls and WeChat messages.

In November, the company warned the trade war between China and the United States would hit demand for container shipping as the volume of goods shipped slides.

Two subsidiaries of China’s COSCO Shipping, in a direct response to the trade war, have reduced the number of vessels in Guangdong, causing a plunge in regional shipping freight turnover, according to Guangdong’s statistics bureau.

“I heard most container factories started letting people go on leave early this year, so I felt it was normal for us to have a few more days off as well,” said Wang, who earned a base salary of 3,900 yuan ($574) per month.

Around the Lunar New Year holiday, this year scheduled for early February, millions of Chinese, including tens of thousands of migrant workers, travel back home for family reunions in what is the world’s largest annual human migration.

While many factories traditionally close ahead of China’s most important holiday, Reuters interviews with more than a dozen workers, business owners, labor activists and trade lawyers revealed businesses are shutting earlier than usual this year as the prolonged trade war curtails orders.

A recent Reuters visit to three once-thriving towns in Dongguan in Guangdong Province showed clear signs of a slowdown. Scores of shops and restaurants were shuttered, some factories idled and many up for rent.

Danny Lau, a Hong Kong factory owner in Dongguan, said some businesses had closed around 40 days ahead of Lunar New Year.

“Dongguan used to be bursting with factory workers but now with factories gone, people are gone as well,” one taxi driver told Reuters.

“This complex used to be full of workers, eating and chatting when they got off work. Now look at this,” he said, pointing to empty dark alleys in an open air dining place one recent weekday evening.

Exports fall

The slowdown comes as data on Monday showed China’s exports unexpectedly fell the most in two years in December and imports also contracted, pointing to further weakness in the world’s second-largest economy in 2019.

Policy sources told Reuters last week China plans to set a lower economic growth target of 6-6.5 percent this year compared with last year’s target of “around” 6.5 percent.

A recent UBS China survey of 200 manufacturing companies with significant export business or supply to exporters revealed the trade war has had a negative impact on 63 percent of those businesses.

A quarter of those affected have cut jobs, 37 percent have moved production out of China in the past 12 months, while 33 percent plan to move in the next six to 12 months.

China’s giant manufacturing sector was already under pressure from rising labor costs, tighter regulations and a shift towards higher-end production and domestic consumption. But the risk of more and higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods has seen the trend rapidly accelerate as more companies look to move supply chains away from China.

U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed to increase tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports on March 2 if Beijing fails to take steps to protect U.S. intellectual property and allow more market access for U.S. businesses, among other steps.

The two sides held face-to-face talks last week, with Trump hailing “tremendous success” and Chinese officials noting “progress,” but few details have been made public.

Slowdown building

Guangdong, home to more than 100 million people, is China’s biggest provincial economy, with its $1.3 trillion GDP comparable to that of Australia or Spain. A slowdown in Guangdong bodes ill for other export-oriented provinces along the Chinese coast, and would also drag on national growth should the trade war persist.

“As a major export province, Guangdong’s economy has been greatly affected by the trade war,” said Shenzhen-based independent economist Song Qinghui. “Many enterprises have suffered from bleak business, orders have fallen sharply, and the number of factories deciding to shut down their business is not in minority.”

Determining the scale of the slowdown through data is difficult, however, given Guangdong Province recently stopped publishing a monthly economic indicator that gauges manufacturing growth momentum.

Other data shows Guangdong’s manufacturing workforce dropped more than 6 percent in the third quarter of last year to 12.71 million from a year earlier.

In a further bearish sign, the value of export orders to the United States signed in November at China’s largest trade fair in Guangdong dropped 30.3 percent on the year.

“If you are servicing a U.S. brand, U.S. market, then of course the company will be in very deep trouble,” said Sunny Tan, deputy chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, which represents more than 30,000 Hong Kong-owned factories in China’s Pearl River Delta.

While some may not be hurting badly financially right now, “they know it’s going south,” he added.

Runaway bosses

As orders trickle in and some production lines grind to a halt, many businesses have cut hours and done away with overtime.

“Without overtime, we don’t have much salary left if you deduct social security and food. All we care about is the tangible money that we can see,” said Ye Minghua, 25, a worker at Kam Pin Industrial Ltd, which has a metal-coating factory in Dongguan.

Around a fifth of the factory’s 200 employees have already left for the holidays, while some production lines have been suspended, said King Lau, assistant to the managing director at Kam Pin.

New orders were expected to fall by 30 percent if tariffs are increased to 25 percent in March, he added.

More factories are likely to shutter their gates for good over the next few weeks, with industry watchers forecasting some owners, unable to bear the hefty cost of bankruptcy, will simply disappear.

“It’s tough to close down a manufacturing factory in China these days … it’s easier to bail,” said trade lawyer Sally Peng of Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg. “After Chinese New Year, when all the workers go, they may not come back.”

The post Job Jitters Mount as China’s Factories Sputter Ahead of Lunar New Year appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

China’s Envoy to Canada Says Huawei 5G Ban Would Have Repercussions

Posted: 17 Jan 2019 08:39 PM PST

OTTAWA—China’s envoy to Canada on Thursday warned Ottawa there would be repercussions if it banned technology firm Huawei Technologies Co Ltd from supplying equipment to Canadian 5G networks, the latest blast in a deepening bilateral dispute.

Ambassador Lu Shaye, speaking at a news conference, did not give details. Canada is currently studying the security implications of 5G networks, but unlike some allies has not announced Huawei equipment will be excluded.

“If the Canadian government does ban Huawei from participating in the 5G network, then as for what kind of repercussion there will be, I'm not sure, but I believe there will be repercussions,” Lu said through an interpreter, urging Ottawa to “make a wise decision on this issue.”

Relations between China and Canada turned frosty last month after Canadian authorities arrested Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of Huawei, on a US extradition request.

China subsequently detained two Canadian citizens, and this month a court retried a Canadian man who previously had been found guilty of drug smuggling, and sentenced him to death.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused Beijing of arbitrarily using the death penalty and called world leaders to solicit their support.

Lu said when Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland goes to the World Economic Forum in Davos next week she should avoid “microphone diplomacy” and not try to rally support.

“If Canada has a sincerity of resolving these issues, then Canada will not do such things. We hope Canada thinks twice before making any actions,” he said.

In response, Freeland said Canada had no intention of changing its approach.

“We will continue to speak every day with our allies about this situation,” she told reporters on the sidelines of a cabinet retreat in Sherbrooke, Quebec.

She declined to give details about the review into 5G technology. A Canadian source directly familiar with the case said the study would not be released in the immediate future.

Huawei has a relatively small Canadian operation, employing just shy of 1,000 people. But the company said early this year it had become the 25th largest research and development funder in Canada, thanks to partnerships with local universities.

On Wednesday, a bipartisan group of US lawmakers introduced bills that would ban the sale of US chips or other components to Huawei, ZTE Corp or other Chinese firms that violate US sanctions or export control laws.

The post China’s Envoy to Canada Says Huawei 5G Ban Would Have Repercussions appeared first on The Irrawaddy.
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