Ever since the confidential memo from United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) Foreign Department was distributed, in early August, among the UNFC circle, and some trusted individuals, disgruntled and critical remarks were making the rounds, specifically stemming from quarters like Karen National Union (KNU) and Chin National Front (CNF).
The memo, which suppose to be a reminder of what issues would be discussed, points out the need for the UNFC to reform and trim down the organization to be more effective. It also pinpoints the fact that Working Group for Ethnic Coordination (WGEC), which was formed to represent the UNFC and other ethnic groups, has dimmed and weaken the UNFC political leadership cloud. But somehow, the UNFC has overcome this obstacle and formed another group named Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT), to conduct peace negotiation with the government. According to the memo, this newly formed team has been again manipulated by some factions of KNU and CNF, refusing to toe the line of UNFC political leadership and trying to form a new team.
KNU dissatisfaction
The KNU disagreement with the UNFC is reported by Mizzima, Burmese section, on 30 August as below:
" We haven't reach the stage of resigning from the UNFC yet and have not decided like that. We see the need to reconsider the current political situation and formation of the organization; in our co-operation, it shouldn't be "top-down" but "parallel" form of doing things", said Pado Kwe Htoo Win to Mizzima.
Nai Han Tha, New Mon State Party (NMSP) spokesman also told Mizzima, the rumours making the rounds at the conference that the KNU would resign from the UNFC was not true.
A source, who don't want to be named and close to the ethnic armed groups told Mizzima that there have been different views among the groups, in conducting the nationwide ceasefire and political talks with the government.
" More or less there are disagreements. The KNU wants to materialize the ceasefire and peace process faster, while the UNFC wants to be sure and go slower", said the source.
RFA, DVB and Mizzima reported, on 31 August, that the KNU delegation walked out from the UNFC meeting, amid rumours that it is resigning from the umbrella group. However, at this writing, it is not yet clear if this is really the case.
SSA and PNLO row
Meanwhile, a row flared up in Southern Shan State between the RCSS and PNLO over territorial dispute.
According to RFA report of 28 August 2014, Hkun Tun Myint said: "We are doing development with the government agreement, but RCSS is threatening to attack saying that it is their area. We are also poised to counter the attack. They have arrested 3 of our soldiers since 21 August."
When asked about the conflict, RCSS/SSA official Major Sai Nguen said: „ I don't want to give comment yet. We are still discussing. This has long been our area and we don't have any idea that the government have given it to them. We are trying to sort this out."
UWSP/MNDAA & Peace Process
The Irrawaddy 29 August report that United Wa State Party (UWSP) and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) said to have push for the amendment of 2008 Constitution, during their meeting with the President and the Commander-in-Chief.
The spokesmen of UWSP and MNDAA held a press conference with the media, on 28 August, where they made their position known.
" We've told the President and Commander-in-Chief that 2008 Constitution has to be amended and that this has to continue at the political dialogue phase," said UWSP spokesman, U Aung Myint.
MNDAA spokesman, U Kham Maung also said that the demand for 2008 Constitutional amendment is due to the desire to establish a self administrated area for Mong La.
" What kind of union we want to establish would be discussed at the phase of political dialogue. At this moment, we cannot say what should be done and what facts should be included. If federal, what type of federal set up. We should adjust the type of federal suitable to our area," said U Kham Maung.
UNFC, UNA and Political Parties
A two days meeting, 29-30 August, between the UNFC, together with the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), 8888 Silver Jubilee Declaration Implementation Committee, 88 Generation Peace and Open Society, 1990 nationwide election winning representatives, Women's League of Burma etc., with participation of some 113 persons, was held in Chiangmai, Thailand.
According to RFA report, on 31 August, the meeting was able to agree on basic issues of nationwide ceasefire, 2008 Constitutional amendment, and all-inclusive political dialogue.
DVB report of 31 August, according to Ko Myo Win, ABSDF representative, mentioned the agreed common issues as democracy, rebuilding of future federal union, 2008 Constitutional amendment, and all-inclusive political dialogue.
In the RFA report of 31 August, Nai Han Tha said that although the UNFC members are bearing arms, they are also politicians like the those from the political parties inside the country. He further added that in order to achieve democratic and human rights, peace is needed; and that this is only possible through understanding between the government and the ethnic armed groups.
Commander-in-Chief's political commitment and anti-PR movement
In Mizzima report of 30 August, Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hliang, in his speech given at the first ever, women cadet graduation day, held in Maw-bi, on 28 August, said: " The constitution drawn and promulgated according to the people's wish must be respected and protected".
He went on to say that the constitution is drawn, taking a lot of times, systematically together with the ethnic nationalities, academician, and experts; it is not copied from foreign democratic countries, but drawn with reasons stemming from the geographical, cultural tradition and historical background and promulgated.
In the meantime, an anti-Proportional-Representative campaign kicked off, on 28 August 2014, in Okklapa, to halt the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) government dominated initiative, which the public sees as a last resort to cling on to power through the new electoral system. For the ruling USDP could lose out in the forth-coming 2015 nationwide election; and only through the PR system will the party be able to maintain some presence within the parliament, together with the help of 25 percent non-elected military seats, allotted by the 2008 Constitution.
Summing up
Given such circumstances, it is hard to predict, which way the peace process is going.
The UNFC is having an inner crisis, notably on how to bridge the gap of "go-slow but sure" faction and "do-fast talk politics later" group, which is tearing the umbrella group apart. This development is not doing favour either to the government or the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs). Thein Sein regime would be put into an awkward position, if it were to go back to its open-book strategy of letting sign the one that is ready and gradually followed by those, when their minds are made up. The regime were quite enthusiastic with this open-book strategy at first, but later gave up, for it could in no way be a nationwide ceasefire as has been announced and projected, which would be a lost of face and possibly cost the regime millions of the promised post-ceasefire international development aids. And as for the EAOs, the civil war, which is simmering and ongoing could escalate further, at least in areas who don't sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). And thus, will be back to the square one again.
The row between the Shan State Army South (SSA-S) and the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO) is also a case in point. The PNLO insists that it has the government permission to set up shop in Mawk Mai area, while the SSA-S said that it has its operative area for years and knew nothing of the government blessing to let the PNLO take over. This seems like again a "divide-and-rule" tactics of the government.
And now, the UWSA and MNDAA are said to be ready to come in from the cold and attend the future peace talks. It is hard to know, whether this is a directive from above, or across the border, or their own initiatives, due to the speculation that the end game scenario is approaching, rightly or wrongly.
The UNFC, UNA and political parties' brain-storming have produced a common goal of achieving peace, democratic rights, establishing a genuine federalism and the amendment of 2008 Constitution or rewriting it anew.
The recently launched anti-Proportional-Representative campaign is also an indication that the confrontation between the government and the opposition is taking a new turn and could become hefty, disrupting the ongoing peace initiative.
Last but not least, the speech of Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hliang, in Maw-bi, on 28 August 2014, at the first ever held women cadet graduation day, that the Burma Army will defend the 2008 Constitution at all cost, for it is promulgated by the majority of the people, is a declaration and fortification of the military hard-line position.
The plot has thicken, or should we say becoming lively, even if it is hard to guess which way the recent development is leading. While the ethnic groups and political, opposition parties are driving hard to change the political system, the Burmese military has not budge from its position of defending the 2008 Constitution. As the 2015, nationwide election draws nearer, the power struggle between the ethnic, USDP-Military clique and political opposition parties is becoming more intense. For now, the ethnic and political parties alliance seems to be demanding the change of political system in unison against the USDP-Military establishment. But how the end game scenario will play out, in the near future, is anybody's guess.
"I suppose I’ve gotten used to it. It has become my life. In the past, I used to cry every day. Now I have no tears left."
