A lot of people were quite astonished at the speedy undertakings of Aung San Suu Kyi, the National League for Democracy (NLD) Chairwoman, for her governmental formation, structuring and stream-lining to achieve her envisioned national reconciliation government in Burma (Myanmar).
But it was her move to create the State Counsellor position for herself that have received the most ire and bad mood of the military (Tatmadaw), prompting one of its kind to burst out by saying that the NLD was indulging in an act of "democratic bullying".
It all comes about as the NLD tabled a bill to make Suu Kyi a State Counsellor that according to the experts would have the similar power of a prime minister.
The bill sailed through with a large margin of "yes" votes in the upper house and again in the lower house, where the military abstained from voting and physically standing up in protest for the adoption, stating disagreement in a number of wordings written in the bill. Chief among them being the usage of "Federal Union" and title of the bill wording of "State", which the military insisted that the two words be changed to "Union Country" and "President" respectively.
The insistence of the latter word "President" and not "State" - following the word "advisor" - is to emphasize not to allow an individual to possess both legislative and executive powers, arguing that this would contravene the constitution, and stressing the importance of separation of powers.
On 6 April, it was signed by the President and sent back to the parliament, which was immediately and formally promulgated with "The 2016, Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (Union Parliament) Law No. 26".
The next day, Aung San Suu Kyi started issuing clarification, in the capacity of her newly formed "State Counsellor Office", regarding the release of all political prisoners.
Whether the military would file a protest with the Constitutional Tribunal, where all judges are also being appointed by the NLD, is still yet unknown at this writing.
Given such a situation, it is predictable that the two camps would definitely manoeuvrer to buttress and consolidate their positions to have political edge on one another.
Let us ponder a bit more on this.
The Military
According to reports, the military has been reinforcing its troops within Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) operational areas in central Shan State, where heavy fightings had happened during November and October last year, causing thousands of Shan villagers to flee and still being unable to return, even after a temporary ceasefire has been reached that should lead to the withdrawal of both warring parties to a safe distance.
The token withdrawal did occurred. But since both parties refused to withdraw to a safe distance, the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) insisted not to go back, citing lack of security. And now the military's massive deployment is threatening to derail the temporary ceasefire achieved a few months ago.
According to Col. Perng Fa of SSPP/SSA, the Burma Amy brought in over 80 military vehicles, between 5 and 6 April, carrying soldiers and equipped with heavy arms into Mong Hsu and Mong Nawng near the Wan Hai headquarters. Reportedly, it maintained that it was swapping troops, but it looked more like an operation.
Col Perng Fa said that the military has been attempting to put Shan State under martial law since last October, when it launched attacks on the Wan Hai headquarters.
"The military frankly wants to impose martial law in Shan State in order to implement a larger strategy. They want to use Shan State as a base from which to attack Kachin State and the Wa region. They've been planning this since October, before the November election," said Col. Perng Fa.
From March 26 to 28, the United Wa State Army (UWSA) hosted a meeting in Panghsang with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), SSPP, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Arakan Army (AA).
Parallel to this, Tatmadaw and SSPP/SSA armed clashes in northern Shan State, and KIA continued to occur, during the second week of April.
State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi
Hardly have the presidential signature ink dried, the next day, on 7 April, Aung San Suu Kyi using her newly minted position of State Counsellor, issued an announcement and clarification, on how she would go about with the release of all the political prisoners.
Accordingly, the Announcement No. 1/2016 of State Counsellor Office, signed by Aung San Suu Kyi, in order to prioritize the release of all political prisoners, enumerates three type of approaches.
One is the sub-article (a) of the Article 204 of the constitution that guarantees the right of the sitting president to pardon prisoners. According to Sub-section (1) of the Criminal Procedure Section 401, the president can grant pardon either conditionally or unconditionally to those who are serving a prison term.
The second is the sub-article (b) of Article 204 that the president with the approval of National Defence and Security Council (NDSC) can grant general amnesty to all those who are serving sentences and facing law-suits.
The third is the use section 494 of the Code of Criminal Procedure, which allows cases, for those arrested but not yet convicted, to be dropped even after a trial has begun.
In the closing paragraph of the announcement, she wrote that in order to release the political prisoners, activists and students facing trial for their involvement in political activism as soon as possible, at the time of the Burmese new year, she will strive to achieve this goal with the use of the first and third approaches.
The reason that the NLD has not being able to make use of the second approach was due to the fact of constitutional constraint, for with the starting of Water Festival (Thingyan), it is impossible to hold the NDSC meeting, or perhaps reluctant to do so, where the six military members would be included from the total of eleven. The NLD has only five members in the set up.
Following the announcement, the Ministry of Information said 199 political activists were released from detention after police dropped charges against them on Friday, ahead of the April 9-20 holiday, according to DPA report of 10 April.
Those freed included 69 student activists arrested a year ago during a march to demand education reform. A total of 2,178 inmates who had already served their jail terms were released from prisons across the country on 8 April, said the ministry's website.
More political prisoners were to be released under an amnesty, and the cases against remaining political activists would be dismissed after the holiday, it said.
There were 121 inmates convicted of political crimes and 418 awaiting trial in the country, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma) before the latest release.
China and the US
Both China and the US have been actively engaged with the newly installed NLD regime, as it struggles to come to grip with the new reality of governing than just protesting, as it was used to as an opposition.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's meeting with the NLD leader was said to touch on China's sometimes controversial investment projects, including the suspended Myitsone dam, but Aung San Suu Kyi insisted that it was mainly more of a courtesy call from the part of the Chinese.
"The Chinese foreign minister came to congratulate our new government. There was a mention of their projects but we did not discuss anything at all," she replied during the 20-minute briefing, after her meeting with the Chinese foreign minister on 6 April.
On his part, Mr Wang said: "China will not interfere in internal affairs, but we strongly support the right choice of the Myanmar people."
Adding further: "We appreciate our long relations. We will not change that attitude even though the government has changed," and that Myanmar can rely on China for its development.
The Chinese Foreign Minister when meeting with Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing buttressed his support to the new regime, when he said: "China supports Myanmar in its efforts to achieve peace through negotiations in northern Myanmar as early as possible," said the Chinese minister. "China is ready to jointly safeguard peace and stability in their border areas."
For his part, Min Aung Hlaing said Wang's visit, the first of a Foreign Minister to the country after the new government took office, demonstrated the strong willingness of China to further promote its cooperation with Burma. Besides, acknowledging Burma's appreciation of support and help provided by China at hard times. He said the Burmese military is committed to pursuing a friendly policy toward China.
Parallel to the Chinese Foreign Minister's visit, President Barack Obama called President Htin Kyaw and de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi, praising the move toward civilian-led government.
According to the White House "the president commended Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's determined efforts, over the course of many years and at great personal cost, to achieve a peaceful transfer of power and advance national reconciliation," reported AFP on 7 April.
What now?
Looking at the recent political happenings, it is hard not to worry about the deteriorating relation between the military and the NLD regime. It is all the more important that this forced coalition partner needs to function, if the democratization process is to move forward, given that the military is allotted with 25% representation in all the parliaments, apart from having the privilege to install and control the powerful three ministries of home, defence and border affairs.
The military and the NLD, for now, are joined at the hip, so to speak.
Starting from February to the present complete take over of the NLD administration there have been several instances that the military has either protested or showed displeasure regarding the regime's undertakings. They are:
- Daw Khin San Hlaing and U Kyaw Aung Lwin's discussion in the parliament on controversial Letpadaung Taung copper mine issue;
- NLD's nomination of the two presidents, U Htin Kyaw and Henry Van Thio;
- Question over Henry Van Thio's family residency of six years in a foreign country;
- NLD appointment of Daw Khin Htay Kywe and U Dwar Kyin Paung to Constitutional Tribunal; and
- Finally, the debacle of State Counsellor appointment of Aung San Suu Kyi.
On top of it, the dissatisfaction of the Commander-in-Chief's speech, on 27 March, Tatmadaw Day was evident, as he stressed:"The two main hindrances to democratization are not abiding by the rule of law and the presence of armed insurgencies. These could lead to a chaotic democracy."
While the disappointment of the military is real, its back-tracking or extra-constitutional move is not on the card, according to a couple of seasoned observers of the country, for neither the NLD or the military are keen to go back to the totalitarian situation of the recent past.
Political analyst Si Thu Aung Myint is said to be worried and that this confrontation and quarrelling trend between the military and the NLD could not achieve positive result, but U Ye Htun an ex-MP from Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP) is of the different opinion, when he, regarding the military's loses or inability to achieve positive result whenever voting take place within the parliament, said: "Tatmadaw won't react in any way. It is just trying to show its stand point. Another thing is the NLD has already formed the government according to its wish for it has won the majority (vote). The military is showing that it won't accept everything without protest, even after the (NLD's) governmental formation. The extremely bad situation as the people feared won't happen. It is just to show their stand point. All the recent happenings have no extreme (bad) implications, (I) see it as just going on normally."
The release of political prisoners by the NLD will no doubt empower the party domestically and received international praise, while the military could be seen in a bad light, as Aung San Suu Kyi refused to make use of the clause that involved the NDSC, where the military has the majority.
Regarding the Chinese overtures, Aung San Suu Kyi is non-committal regarding China's economic and energy interest and tentatively just said that everything will be handled in friendly manner and according to mutual benefit of the two countries, based on non-alignment policy of Burma.
Min Aung Hlaing, meanwhile, might have pushed for the containment of the ethnic armed organizations along the border, which the Chinese as usual won't be ready to comply with, stating it likes to see peaceful settlement of the ethnic conflict.
All in all, China is worried of the further westward drift of the NLD regime and at the same time its energy demand and "One Belt, One Road" economic blueprint, which Burma is part and parcel of the whole scheme, could be disrupted.
As for Burma, while it needs the West for continuation of democratization process, China is also indispensable in it developmental undertakings.
As such, the military should go along with the NLD, particularly in relation to the appointment of the State Counsellor position, and embark on a coordinated effort in trying to resolve the ethnic conflict, involving a give-and-take bargaining with China on a variety of fields, so that the crucial peaceful atmosphere could be achieved, while democratization, realization of a genuine federalism and development of the country be pushed forward, in an effective and speedy manner.
