Tuesday, July 14, 2015

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine


Arakan National Party Eyes 63 Seats in General Election

Posted: 14 Jul 2015 07:44 AM PDT

 Party patron Aye Thar Aung, center, attends a meeting of senior members of the Arakan National Party (ANP) in Sittwe, Arakan State, this week. (Photo: Facebook / Gambarri Rakhine)

Party patron Aye Thar Aung, center, attends a meeting of senior members of the Arakan National Party (ANP) in Sittwe, Arakan State, this week. (Photo: Facebook / Gambarri Rakhine)

RANGOON — The Arakan National Party (ANP) plans to contest 63 constituencies in Burma's Nov. 8 general election, party patron Aye Thar Aung told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday.

The senior party leader said the ANP will compete for all 34 elected seats in the regional Arakan State legislature, as well as making bids for 17 seats in the Union Parliament's Lower House and 12 seats in the Upper House.

Members of the ANP have gathered this week for a four-day meeting of the party's central committee in Sittwe, the Arakan State capital. Establishing an election campaign team and financing committee, as well as approving a list of party candidates for the general election, are on the agenda for this week's meeting, which will wrap up on Thursday.

"Maungdaw and Buthitaung townships delayed in submitting [candidate lists for] the constituencies, but I think that will be fine," Aye Thar Aung said.

The ANP's Maungdaw chapter president, Khin Maung Than, told The Irrawaddy on Monday that local party officials had submitted their list to the central committee and aimed to contest four constituencies in the northern Arakan State township.

The plan to contest 63 seats between the two levels of government represents a scaling up of ambitions for a major Arakanese political party.

The Rakhine National Development Party (RNDP), which merged with another Arakanese party to form the ANP last year, contested 44 seats and won 35 in Burma's last general election, in 2010. It won seven seats in the Upper House and nine seats in the Lower House, with the remainder of seats won in the regional parliament. It garnered 4.17 percent of seats in the Upper House, making it the second largest bloc in that chamber at the time, after the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).

In January 2014, the RNDP and Arakan League for Democracy (ALD) joined forces to form the ANP. The ALD had sat out the 2010 poll.

The merger stands in contrast to the political dynamics in most of Burma's ethnic minority states, where typically two parties will vie for the loyalties of ethnic constituencies, while also competing with the ruling USDP and Burma's largest opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD).

The post Arakan National Party Eyes 63 Seats in General Election appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Shelling Sends Civilians Fleeing in Shan State

Posted: 14 Jul 2015 07:28 AM PDT

A Burma Army soldier is seen on patrol on July 8 along the Asia Highway, where government troops have clashed with ethnic Karen armed rebels in recent weeks. (Photo: Kyaw Kha / The Irrawaddy)

A Burma Army soldier is seen on patrol on July 8 along the Asia Highway, where government troops have clashed with ethnic Karen armed rebels in recent weeks. (Photo: Kyaw Kha / The Irrawaddy)

More than 100 people from Kaung Kha village in Muse Township have fled their homes after artillery shells were fired into the settlement on Monday, reportedly leaving one person dead and two others injured.

The displaced villagers told The Irrawaddy that the artillery bombardment began at about 10 am on Monday and stopped sometime in the afternoon. The villagers have sought shelter at nearby Namtaw village and say they dare not return to their homes amid reports that the Burma Army is occupying the village.

La Seng, one of the affected villagers, said one man was killed in the shelling and a husband and wife sustained injuries and were taken to hospital in the town of Muse for treatment.

"We ran from our village and still are not able to go back today," he told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday. "We left our homes without being able to shut our doors or take anything."

Police Col. San Lwin, from the Shan State Police, confirmed the injuries but said the man killed on Monday had stepped on a landmine.

"Two local villagers were injured from the explosion of artillery due to engagement between the Tatmadaw [Burma Army] troops and the KIA [Kachin Independence Army]. Those two were sent to Pang Sai hospital at 10 am and then transferred to Muse hospital at 2 pm," San Lwin said, adding that their conditions were not serious.

Located in Pang Sai sub-township, Kaung Kha village was the site of the rape and murder of two Kachin schoolteachers in January of this year that has gone unsolved amid allegations implicating Burma Army soldiers who were stationed nearby at the time.

Burma Army and KIA troops often pass through the area, according to La Seng.

La Seng said there are about 140 people living in Kaung Kha and all had fled after Monday's shelling. "We have over 100 people now, and the church in Namtaw village, in Mong Paw town, is supporting all of us with food and shelter," he said.

The Irrawaddy's attempts to reach the KIA were unsuccessful on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, fighting continued on Tuesday in Kawkareik, Karen State, days after the Burma Army declared that it had taken control of the area and reopened the Asia Highway. Clashes near the new route in southeastern Burma began on July 2 and have pitted the Burma Army against the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), an ethnic Karen armed group.

Intense fighting on Tuesday morning occurred some three miles south of Kawkareik town and lasted until noon, according to Maj. San Aung of the DKBA.

He told The Irrawaddy that the Burma Army had fired artillery rounds that landed in the Kawkareik Township village of Myohaung, but a casualty count was not yet known.

San Aung added that a DKBA liaison officer, Maj. Saw Thaye Ni, and a staffer at the liaison office in Kawkareik were detained by authorities on Monday.

Kyaw Kha and Nang Seng Nom contributed to this report.

The post Shelling Sends Civilians Fleeing in Shan State appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

The House on an Island

Posted: 14 Jul 2015 07:24 AM PDT

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The century-old Chin Tsong Palace, known locally as "Kanbawza Yeiktha," was designated as a cultural heritage site by Burma's Ministry of Culture last week. The new status requires that the government take steps to preserve and protect the site. The Ministry has asked President thein Sein to commit to preserving the site, and to create a new legal designation for "Ancient Monumental Zones."

In light of the renewed attention to this colonial relic, The Irrawaddy revisits the story of the Chinese tycoon who once dwelled in the expansive house, and the legacy that lives on throughout its grounds.

When the writer and former British civil servant Maurice Collis decided to return to Myanmar in 1937 to visit Shan State in the north, he first stopped in Yangon where he was invited to stay at a "house on an island."

In his book "Lords of the Sunset," Mr. Collis described enjoying excellent paintings by famous Myanmar painter U Ba Nyan in a house with porcelain, Persian carpets, bronze drums, a waxed floor and a white poodle. The house was built by the well-known Chinaman Lim Chin Tsong, the author briefly noted.

Lim Chin Tsong was a Chinese tycoon who successfully built a business empire on rubber cultivation, textiles and the oil, rice trading, mineral mining and banking sectors. He was the son of a Chinese Hokkien migrant from Fujian province in China. His father, Lim Soo Hean, came to Yangon in 1861 and began trading rice and selling agricultural products.

Lower Myanmar was then ruled by the British who were preparing to take over the upper part of the country still ruled by King Mindon. In British-ruled Yangon, business was competitive and Lim Soo Hean soon discovered his main limitation: a poor education. He was unable to communicate in English with foreign merchants—either Indians or Europeans.

He then sent his 16-year-old son, Lim Chin Tsong, to St Paul's College in Yangon to study but did not live to see his beloved son take over his work and build one of the most successful businesses in Southeast Asia.

At 18-years-old, Lim Chin Tsong assumed his father's business after Lim Soo Hean passed away in 1885—the year British troops marched into the grand Mandalay Palace and detained the king and queen before sending them into exile. The whole of Myanmar was then under British control.

The young and energetic Lim Chin Tsong began to grow the business empire, buying ocean-going vessels, exporting rice and expanding his shipping business to Singapore, Penang, Hong Kong, Guangdong, and Amoy (now known as Xiamen).

Among businessmen of that era, the Chinese tycoon was regarded as talented and strategically minded, using the trademark "Xie De" to denote many of his business ventures and products.

He soon managed to secure a deal with Burma Oil Corporation (BOC), a large oil company based in the United Kingdom, and was appointed as the exclusive product agent for the region. His involvement in the oil industry saw his wealth flourish and he became one of the richest Chinese tycoons based overseas.

Lim Chin Tsong was flamboyant and showy but he was also known to be generous in his philanthropy projects, donating money to establish schools for students to learn English and to build a hospital for women in Yangon. In 1905, he and his business partners established Anglo-Chinese Boys' and Girls' Schools in Yangon. Two years later, he built his own school officially known as the Lim Chin Tsong School.

One is delighted to learn of the Chinese tycoon's genuine efforts to upgrade education at the time, particularly when many in Myanmar today learn only about the exploitative practices of greedy Chinese businessmen in the country.

The Lim Chin Tsong School, located in downtown Yangon, employed teachers from England on decent salaries and produced many English-trained graduates, some of whom were Chinese students from Hong Kong and Macau pursuing their education in Yangon, according to some historical records.

Lim Chin Tsong also served as a member of the Legislative Council of Myanmar. In 1919, he was awarded the Order of the British Empire for his fundraising efforts during World War I. He was also a prominent member of the Rangoon Turf Club and the Lim Chin Tsong Polo Cup endured even after his death.

In 1917, Lim Chin Tsong began to build a magnificent and lavish residence in Yangon near Kokkine Road, now Kaba Aye Road. The five-storey structure of red bricks and green tiles was built to resemble the Fu Xiang pavilion in the Yihe Yuan (Summer Palace) of Beijing but in fact, the building featured a blend of Eastern and Western architectural designs. It took more than two years to build at great cost—some reports suggested a figure of around 2 million rupees.

Materials and craftwork for the residence were imported from China and Italian designers, as well as famous British painters, were invited to design the interior. Ernest Procter, an English designer, illustrator, painter and husband to the artist Dod Procter, were among those invited to decorate the residence.

The opulent house was then known as the Lim Chin Tsong Palace and among locals it was called "Chin Chaung Nan Daw" or Chin Chaung palace. There were no records of how many fancy parties were thrown at the palace but when Georges Benjamin Clemenceau, a French statesman, visited Southeast Asia, including Myanmar, in 1920, Lim Chin Tsong was known to have entertained him at the residence.

Lim Chin Tsong's success hit a speed bump when in 1921 the British government banned the sale of rice, except to India, and soon the market collapsed. Some also suggested that his flamboyant ways caused the BOC to withdraw his exclusive agent rights, which incited him to seek ways to undermine the company.

Suddenly, he was broke. He sold his possessions—even his Rolls Royce cars—and began borrowing money from friends. In his final days, the once rich Chinese tycoon was a broken man. In 1923, three years after the inauguration of the Chin Tsong residence, he passed away.

The palace first went to a Japanese creditor (under Japanese rule in Myanmar from 1941-45, the residence housed the All Burma Broadcasting Station), then to Indian businessman and then to the Myanmar government in 1950 when it was turned into a state guesthouse named Kanbawza Yeiktha.

Currently, the Fine Arts Department under the Ministry of Culture maintains an office and an arts school within the building.

The house that saw Lim Chin Tsong's downfall, and many ups and downs in the country, has stood throughout the decades. Now children who live in the area play nearby and stray dogs harass the odd curious visitor. Some nervous officials at the Ministry of Culture would not allow visitors to take pictures.

Inside the hall and on the second floor, one can no longer see paintings and other decorations that have perhaps been removed. Lim Chin Tsong's former residence seems ready for a genuine facelift.

Recent news suggests that the Ministry of Culture will grant Chin Tsong Palace heritage status and renovate the building as it approaches its 100th anniversary, Kyaw Nyunt, director of Yangon Region's Archaeology, National Museum and Library Department, recently told The Irrawaddy.

The late Lim Chin Tsong who made a significant contribution to colonial Myanmar, not least through some outstanding education projects, would be delighted to learn of the recognition.

This article first appeared in the November 2014 print edition of The Irrawaddy Magazine.

The post The House on an Island appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

5 Karenni State Ministers Resign Amid USDP Purge

Posted: 14 Jul 2015 04:28 AM PDT

Karenni women in traditional dress waiting for Aung San Suu Kyi at Loikaw in Karenni State. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

Karenni women in traditional dress waiting for Aung San Suu Kyi at Loikaw in Karenni State. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Five ruling party ministers in eastern Burma's Karenni State have resigned, including the state's chief executive, amid speculation that they do not fit into the party's election agenda.

Chief Minister Khin Maung Oo—also known as Buu Yal—along with Transportation Minister Chit Hla, Electricity and Industry's Saw Hu Hu, Municipal Minister Aung Naing Oo and the state's head of Burma Ethnic Affairs Sein Oo, have all independently submitted resignation letters since late last month.

Four have been granted permission to leave their posts by the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). Khin Maung Oo is currently under investigation for unspecified activities, and has been purged from the party.

All five intend to contest general elections to be held in November, according to two of the ministers, though it is still unclear which seats they will seek and whether they intend to run at the state or national level. Chit Hla and Saw Hu Hu told The Irrawaddy that they will contest as independents with no party affiliation.

Chit Hla said the ministers were under no party pressure to resign, and that each made the move of his own volition. He chose to step down, he said, to allow the party's younger talent to seek more seats. Nonetheless, he stated his intention to run against them if that is the will of the people.

"The election will be held in the coming three or four months, and the party must win. I don't think I can perform the task, that's why I requested to quit," Chit Hla said, claiming that he chose to step aside "to offer places for young people who want to become lawmakers."

Local analysts said there might be more to the surprise sluice. Khin Maung Oo, who is the state's USDP chapter chairman, has recently fallen out of favor with the party because "he, himself, has failed to follow policy set by the party headquarters," according to a statement released by the USDP on Monday.

The public reprimand said the chief minister "was weak in following the party's instruction and weak in uniting the party," announcing that he had been expelled from the central committee and the party.

Kyaw Htin Aung, a member of the grassroots political group Union of Karenni State Youth (UKSY), suggested that Khin Maung Oo's appointees had resigned because the USDP was unlikely to allow them to contest the elections in light of their affiliation with the shunned chief minister.

"That's why," Kyaw Htin Aung explained, "if they stick with the party they won't be able to contest, so they just decided to run independently."

The USDP is the dominant party in the small landlocked state bordering Thailand, though ethnic minority parties are gaining momentum as polls near. The Kayah National Party, All Nationals Democracy Party of Kayah State and the Kayah Unity Democracy Party also plan to contest this year's election.

Burma's main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), and the Lisu National Development Party are also active in the area, but do not hold seats in either the state or national assemblies representing Karenni. Advance votes outnumbered election day turnout in the state during Burma's last general election in 2010, leaving the USDP firmly in command of both houses.

President's Office Minister Soe Thane and Union Minister Aung Min, both loyal to the USDP, are expected to seek votes in Karenni constituencies. The USDP plans to contest in all of the 1,171 races during the upcoming election.

Additional reporting contributed by Zue Zue.

The post 5 Karenni State Ministers Resign Amid USDP Purge appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

A Tangle of Tenure Claims amid Muse SEZ

Posted: 14 Jul 2015 03:09 AM PDT

Click to view slideshow.

MUSE, Shan State — The border is booming with trade and development in eastern Burma's Muse, where a constant stream of trucks flows daily from China delivering goods to Lashio, Mandalay and Rangoon. Businesspeople in the transitory Shan State town said things started changing at breakneck speed around 2011, when Burma initiated political and economic reforms under a new quasi-civilian government.

Muse's border with Ruili, China, is marked by the Shweli River, newly flanked with buildings reaching higher and higher by the month. But the town's rich mix of ethnic minorities—including Shan, Kachin, Palaung and Burmese—seems to be thinning out as the city itself becomes more dense and developed.

The rapidly expanding trade hub is fast falling prey to the scourge of Burma's other proposed special economic zones (SEZs): skyrocketing land prices and loss of tenure rights. During a recent visit to Muse, locals told The Irrawaddy that the town has become a hotspot for land disputes, and rampant confiscation has gone unchecked despite a nationwide land rights movement and government promises to resolve outstanding claims.

Perhaps the biggest and most imminent threat comes from a government proposal to install a new airport, which would require some 500 acres of land otherwise home to modest houses and farms, according to local land rights activist Sai Aung. Township authorities, he said, have twice told residents that they need to leave the premises.

In two separate letters delivered in January, Muse's Municipal Department told locals that the land was owned by the Myanmar Air Force, and they must vacate before the end of the month. The letters offered no compensation, he said, claiming that the area's residents were illegal settlers on property owned by the Myanmar Air Force. Locals maintain that they have occupied the land since 1953, and in some cases plots had been used by the family for longer.

"We disagree with building an airport on our land," Sai Aung said, explaining that residents had suggested that the facility be built in nearby Namkham instead, where the ground is low and flat.

Okkthara Sardi, a resident of Muse and herself a land rights activist, said land disputes were fast becoming the biggest problem in the town, particularly because the rapid increase in land value has prompted opportunism as well as legitimate tenure claims.

"As the economy grows, our town is running out of space. Look at those lands," she said, pointing out into the distance. "No one used them in the past, but now they are building new things there and it's causing problems for the local people."

Because land values have shot up so quickly—one acre now costs about 100 million kyats, according to Sai Aung—some locals who had abandoned what used to be seen as worthless properties have come back and tried to reclaim them. While many others have legitimate claims to property, authorities view them in much the same light as those trying to cash in on recent economic growth.

No More Mercy?

The planned airport, parts of which have been demarcated but no work has begun on the land, has already caused all sorts of problems. Aside from private tenure claims of varying legitimacy, the project could displace an entire village of disabled citizens.

Mercy Land, a charity that houses, schools and employs people affected by leprosy and their families, was established by Sardi's father, Min Myat Khaung, in the 1980s after he was granted a 10-acre concession by the trustees of the nearby Seven Dragons Pagoda as a reward for having built shrines in the area. An artist and a well-known figure in Muse, Min Myat Khaung said that now, some 30 years later, township authorities are trying to reclaim the land—which he had singlehandedly transformed from jungle into a sanctuary.

"I didn't buy this land," he told The Irrawaddy during a recent visit, "but they offered it to me as a price for building pagodas."

Township authorities, he said, had even supported his plan to provide for those with leprosy, as they were unwanted in public due to severe social stigma. They began welcoming the township's poor and dejected patients and their children. Sardi later built a school on the property, and became its head teacher. Mercy Land is now home to dozens of people, many disfigured by the disease and ostracized by much of society. Min Myat Khaung said that his years of providing for the population, so neglected by the government, have brought him great satisfaction.

"They become very happy after they come to stay on my land," he said. "This is my intention and it's why I built Mercy Land."

Sardi said they will resist the pressure to leave, even it means risking their lives.

"As long as we have life, we will continue to stay here and protect our land," she said, "even if they come to remove us with their bulldozers."

A Familiar Tale

Muse is an average-sized township, its boundaries redrawn as recently as 2011. Upon visiting the area, The Irrawaddy found that land disputes permeated the area, as rising real estate prices shot through most corners of the town, affecting many of its 117,000 residents. Problems began, locals said, when Muse was tapped to become one of Burma's SEZs and a local construction firm, New Star Light Co Ltd, was chosen to oversee the development for much of the zone's infrastructure and a border crossing leading into Ruili.

Little is known about the firm, which locals said has been the main implementer of the zone's infrastructure, hotel and manufacturing developments. Founded in 2008 by Kyaw Kyaw Win, a Mandalay-based entrepreneur, New Star Light is a familiar name among those who claim to have lost their land.

As familiar is the name of Sai Ohn Myint, the nephew of Burma's Vice President Sai Mauk Kham. An engineer at the helm of the Great Hor Kham Plc, according to the Myanmar Engineering Society, Sai Ohn Myint has been contracted for several projects in Muse, and has been repeatedly accused of unfairly acquiring lands and selling them to New Star Light.

Sai Haing Hang Pa, an ethnic Shan resident of Muse, said his mother was one example. She lost four acres of family land, he said, in 2009. Sai Ohn Myint repeatedly called their household on the phone to offer compensation, he said, but they didn't want to sell it. While the property was dormant for some time, the family still owned it and intended to build a house there.

"When we went back to clean our land, they told us that we didn't own it anymore," said his mother, Daw Saw May. The family has been to court about 10 times to try to resolve the dispute, but the case seems to be headed nowhere, they said.

Sai Aung, the land rights activist advocating for those threatened by the new airport, said the story is always the same for local landowners in the wake of a rapid major development like the Muse SEZ.
"Only a small group of rich people get benefits, and locals don't gain anything from this project," he said.

The post A Tangle of Tenure Claims amid Muse SEZ appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Thein Sein Undecided on Re-Election Bid: President’s Office

Posted: 14 Jul 2015 01:41 AM PDT

President Thein Sein listens to a representative from one of Burma's political parties at a meeting in Rangoon on May 18, 2015. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

President Thein Sein listens to a representative from one of Burma's political parties at a meeting in Rangoon on May 18, 2015. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Speculation over the political intentions of President Thein Sein kicked into high gear on Tuesday amid reports that Burma's sitting chief executive would not run for a second term.

Stories published by the BBC and Reuters, citing different sources, both reported this week that the president would not seek re-election to Parliament in a general election scheduled for Nov. 8, but on Tuesday President's Office Director Zaw Htay denied that Thein Sein had taken himself out of the running.

"Firstly, regarding the letter, we wanted to say it is very complicated," he said, referring to a letter purportedly from Thein Sein that the BBC Burmese service obtained indicating that he would not run for the seat in Parliament that he won in 2010, citing health concerns.

"The second point is our president has already spoken about it, that he will run for a second term based on our country's political situation," said Zaw Htay, who highlighted that the president had made his position clear in an interview with Japanese media during a recent trip to that country. "The third point is he will base [his decision] on [whether there is] support from our people in the country. [If so], then he will run for a second term."

Other media reports this week have indicated that a candidate list for Burma's general election from the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) does not include Thein Sein's name among those put forward as running for a seat in the legislature.

That, however, would not disqualify him from the presidency under Burma's 2008 Constitution. Laying out the procedure for nominating the three vice presidential candidates from among whom the president is chosen by Parliament, the charter's Article 60 states that candidates can be drawn "from among the Hluttaw [Parliament] representatives or from among persons who are not Hluttaw representatives."

In a post to its official website on Monday, the USDP said Thein Sein's administration had forwarded a list of 50 people that it was seeking for inclusion on the party's candidate roster. The USDP had accepted 40 of those nominees, the post said.

Asked by The Irrawaddy whether Thein Sein was on the party's candidate list, Zaw Htay deferred.

"This is a [internal] party matter," he said.

In a separate report, Reuters cited an anonymous senior President's Office official as saying the president would not run in Burma's general election "because of his health condition."

Reuters later published a "clarification" in which it cited Zaw Htay as saying the president had not made a decision on the matter.

Zaw Htay denied that health concerns would factor into Thein Sein's decision.

"The president is quite healthy," he told The Irrawaddy. "It is not true, as some media have reported, that he could not run for a second term because of poor health."

Zaw Htay took the opportunity to offer a subtle rebuke to those claiming to speak on behalf of the president, as was the case in October 2013, when USDP leader Shwe Mann said Thein Sein had told him that he would not seek re-election.

"We [the President's Office] gave this explanation one time already, when U Shwe Mann spoke about the president not running for election a second time," he said, referring to subsequent disapproving comments made by presidential spokesman Ye Htut.

"For us, the first question we want to ask is when was this letter issued, and why was this letter made public at this time?" Zaw Htay said.

The conflicting information emanating from Naypyidaw would appear to give credence to rumors of a power struggle at the top of the USDP leadership, presumably pitting Thein Sein against Shwe Mann, who serves as speaker of the Union Parliament.

Senior party leader Aung Thaung acknowledged in an interview with BBC Burmese last month that the party was split, though he did not elaborate on the nature of the schism.

Shwe Mann has openly aired his presidential ambitions, while Thein Sein's most recent public remarks indicated that he was open to running for re-election but had not yet decided to contest.

The post Thein Sein Undecided on Re-Election Bid: President's Office appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Japan Security Debate Masks Clash of Views on Pacifist Constitution

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 11:25 PM PDT

 Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reviews members of Japan Self-Defense Force during an Air Review to celebrate 60 years since the service's founding at Hyakuri air base in Omitama, northeast of Tokyo Oct. 26, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reviews members of Japan Self-Defense Force during an Air Review to celebrate 60 years since the service's founding at Hyakuri air base in Omitama, northeast of Tokyo Oct. 26, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

TOKYO — Is Japan's constitution a symbol of peace and respect for universal values or a reminder of humiliating defeat?

As Prime Minister Shinzo Abe rushes to push through unpopular legislation allowing broader use of Japan's military, the heated security debate masks a deeper divide over the pacifist charter, drafted by US Occupation officials after Japan's World War Two defeat.

Admirers view the constitution as the source of Japan's peace, prosperity and democracy.

Many of Abe's conservative backers, who have long wanted to rewrite the constitution but lacked the political means, view it as a shoddy document written, in the words of one commentary, "with malice and vengeance" to keep Japan forever subdued.

"If we keep the constitution GHQ (US Occupation headquarters) gave to a defeated Japan, Japan will always remain a defeated country," says a great-grandfather in a cartoon published recently by Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to explain why the charter should be revised.

That view is fanning suspicion among Abe's critics that the proposed legislation to ease limits on the military is a step toward gutting not only the charter's pacifist Article 9, but basic principles such as respect for human rights.

"I think he hates the concept of modern constitutionalism, the concept that the powers of the government should be restricted by the constitution," Yasuo Hasebe, a constitutional scholar at Waseda University, told Reuters.

Drafted by US officials during a frantic week in February 1946 and based on principles set out by General Douglas MacArthur, supreme allied commander in Japan, the constitution renounced the right to wage war or maintain armed forces and enshrined democracy and human rights.

It has been stretched to allow Japan a military equal to Britain's but still constrained compared with other countries' armed forces.

Invited to speak to a parliamentary panel by the LDP, the soft-spoken Hasebe set off a firestorm when he said last month legislation to let Japan exercise the right of collective self-defense, or fighting to defend a friendly country under attack, was unconstitutional.

Despite the furore, the ruling bloc may push bills allowing a greater role for the military through the lower house as early as this week to ensure passage before parliament adjourns on Sept. 27. That could erode Abe's already slipping ratings.

Reinterpretation

Abe has made clear he wants to revise the constitution, but formal amendment requires approval by two-thirds of both houses of parliament and a majority in a referendum, conditions that have never been met.

Instead, his cabinet—arguing new security threats such as a rising China make change vital—has adopted a resolution reinterpreting the constitution to allow for collective self-defense.

"This is a constitution that was imposed on us and should be re-written completely," Nihon University professor Akira Momichi, one of a handful of scholars who back Abe's reinterpretation, told a news conference.

"But the process of amendment is a very difficult hurdle, so we have to do the best with what we have."

Surveys show most constitutional scholars, lawyers and jurists disagree.

"Because they can't revise the constitution, they are trying to ignore it," Keio University professor emeritus Setsu Kobayashi told Reuters.

Concern about changes has sparked demonstrations and grassroots activism.

"This is not just a matter of Article 9," lawyer Keiko Ota recently told a small gathering at a Tokyo cafe.

"The question is whether or not we want to stop being a country ruled by law," said Ota, who has held about 100 "Constitution Cafes" since Abe took office in 2012.

Defenders argue that though drafted by occupiers, the constitution has been largely embraced by Japanese citizens.

Advocates of revision say there is no time to lose.

"We need, under the Abe administration, to do whatever it takes to protect Japan," commentator Yoshiko Sakurai, an Abe ally, said at a May 3 event to mark the anniversary of the constitution taking effect. "It is high time to rewrite the constitution."

The post Japan Security Debate Masks Clash of Views on Pacifist Constitution appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Two-wheeled Revolution: Pyongyang Installs Bike Lanes

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 11:13 PM PDT

 A car drives past residential buildings in Pyongyang in 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

A car drives past residential buildings in Pyongyang in 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

SEOUL — North Korea has installed cycle lanes on major thoroughfares running through Pyongyang in an apparent bid to cut down on pedestrian accidents as more people have the cash to spend on bicycles to get around.

Bicycles are an expensive but popular mode of transport for many in the impoverished and reclusive country where private car ownership, although on the rise, is still rare.

They are often used by women to transport goods to semi-tolerated markets, where one of the most common services sold for profit is bicycle repair.

Concrete paving stones on some long stretches of pavement in the central area of Pyongyang have been replaced by a strip of smooth cycle path marked with white outlines of bicycles, according to photos seen by Reuters.

One image from early July showed a freshly laid bicycle path leading to the towering 105-storey Ryugyong hotel, the uprooted paving stones still on the pavement.

North Korean cyclists are not supposed to ride on urban roads and have for years used an unmarked narrow strip of pavement shared with pedestrians, residents and visitors said.

"This causes a lot of accidents and collisions and as a result people ride slowly and ring their bells very frequently," said Simon Cockerell of Beijing-based Koryo Tours, which takes Western tourists into North Korea.

Pyongyang—the name of the showpiece capital means "flat lands"—is geographically bicycle-friendly, but has in the past introduced and then lifted bans on bikes in the city center.

Cockerell said the number of cyclists in Pyongyang appears to have increased by roughly 50 percent in the past few years, although the thought of riding a bike might be unsophisticated for many image-conscious Pyongyang residents.

"They are not the most common form of transport for the average Pyongyanger, and many people I have spoken to about bikes there—mostly men—have scoffed at the idea that they would ride a bike," said Cockerell, whose company offers bicycle tours of North Korea.

The post Two-wheeled Revolution: Pyongyang Installs Bike Lanes appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Tibetan Lama Tenzin Delek Rinpoche Dies in Chinese Prison

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 11:04 PM PDT

A member of the Tibetan Youth Congress takes part in a candle light procession in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh November 18, 2004. (Photo: Reuters)

A member of the Tibetan Youth Congress takes part in a candle light procession in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh November 18, 2004. (Photo: Reuters)

BEIJING — Tibetan lama Tenzin Delek Rinpoche has died in prison 13 years into serving a sentence for what human rights groups say were false charges that he was involved in a bombing in a public park. He was 65.

Relatives were informed of the death Sunday, New York-based Students for a Free Tibet said Monday. Police in Sichuan province in southwestern China confirmed the death but declined to give further details.

Tenzin Delek was arrested in 2002 in relation to an April 3, 2002, blast in Chengdu city that injured three people. He was sentenced to death on charges of terror and incitement of separatism a few months later. His death sentence was commuted to life in prison in 2005, and later to 20 years' imprisonment. He continued to maintain his innocence.

He was being held in a prison in Dazhu county in Sichuan province, which borders the Tibetan region.

A woman from the Public Security Bureau in Dazhu confirmed that Tenzin Delek died on Sunday. She refused to identify herself.

Students for a Free Tibet said his family members had been informed by police in Chengdu city, the capital of Sichuan province, on Sunday, but were not told how he died.

Last year, they had applied for medical parole for him on the grounds that he suffered from a heart condition, high blood pressure, dizzy spells and problems with his legs that had caused him to fall on a number of occasions.

Born in 1950 in a Tibetan area of Sichuan, Tenzin Delek stayed in India from 1982 to 1987 to study under the Dalai Lama.

During that time, the Dalai Lama recognized Tenzin Delek as a tulku, or a reincarnated lama.

In 1987 he returned to China, where he worked to establish monasteries, health clinics, small schools and orphanages, rising in prominence.

Human rights groups have said his relationship with Chinese officials took a turn for the worse when he rolled back attempts to clear forests and because of his support for the Dalai Lama, who is considered a separatist by the government.

In India, exiled Tibetans marched Monday in New Delhi and in Dharmsala, where the Dalai Lama has lived since fleeing Tibet in 1959, carrying placards reading, "We want justice," and "Murdered in Prison."

His family called for authorities to release his body.

"Tenzin Delek Rinpoche was an innocent monk who suffered over 13 years of unjust imprisonment, torture and abuse in a Chinese prison for simply advocating for the rights and well-being of his people and for expressing his devotion to His Holiness the Dalai Lama," his India-based cousin, Geshe Nyima, said in a statement released by Students for a Free Tibet.

"The Chinese government must immediately release his body so that our family and community may perform the last Buddhist religious rites," the statement said.

The US State Department said it was saddened to learn of the death of the political prisoner.

"The United States had consistently urged China to release Tenzin Delek Rinpoche, most recently out of concern for his health," department spokesman John Kirby said in a statement. "We hope Chinese authorities will investigate and make public the circumstances surrounding his death."

The post Tibetan Lama Tenzin Delek Rinpoche Dies in Chinese Prison appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

National News

National News


President not yet on USDP candidate list

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 09:15 PM PDT

Former Union Solidarity and Development Party leader President U Thein Sein has not yet been included on the party's list of candidates to contest the November 8 election, a senior party member revealed yesterday.

Government rejects demand for increase in monastic school funding

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 09:01 PM PDT

Teachers in monastic schools will receive no extra government money this year, parliament heard yesterday.

NLD issues criteria for those wishing to contest elections

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 08:44 PM PDT

The party says it will prioritise candidates who are women, young or members of ethnic minorities.

Government allocates funds for U Bein Bridge repairs

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 08:39 PM PDT

The Union government has stumped up almost US$200,000 for urgent repairs to Mandalay's U Bein Bridge, a popular tourist attraction that some have warned is in danger of collapse.

French ambassador bids adieu

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 08:31 PM PDT

Thierry Mathou marks French national day by promoting free speech, free press and peace with ethnic minorities.

Experts consider expansion of community-run forestry program

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 08:29 PM PDT

A three-year plan will see 100,000 hectares transferred to community forest-user groups in seven areas.

Sagaing prepares to mark royal anniversary

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 08:20 PM PDT

Sagaing city is throwing a huge party to celebrate the 700th anniversary of its founding. Between July 26 and 28 the town is letting its hair down in a K400 million celebration of its history, cuisine and culture.

Kachin murder DNA tests in limbo

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 08:17 PM PDT

Questions continue to surround the police handling of the rape and murder of two Kachin teachers in Muse township, Shan State, in January.

Shan Herald Agency for News

Shan Herald Agency for News


Wa should sign the NCA: Minister

Posted: 14 Jul 2015 12:27 AM PDT

The United Wa State Party/Army (UWSP/UWSA) should be one of the signatories of the planned Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), said U Aung Min, Vice Chairman of the Union Peacemaking Work Committee (UPWC) on Saturday, 11 July, while meeting representatives of the Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army (KNU/KNLA) and Restoration Council of Shan State/ Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA) at Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) in Rangoon.


The UWSA and its closest ally National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) have so far maintained that as the ceasefire which was concluded in 1989 is still observed by both sides, there is no need to sign the NCA. Both say they are waiting for the political dialogue to start so they can join it.

But U Aung Min says the NCA is not just about ceasefire. "It also includes sections on political dialogue, federalism and the Unlawful Association Act (better known as Section 17/1)" he told the Shan and Karen representatives. "Only by signing the NCA, these guarantees could be fulfilled."

An MPC official added, "If the Wa are allowed to take part in the political dialogue without signing the NCA, then it is likely other groups may also follow suit. How can we let that happen?"

The UWSA, since 1993, has been calling for a separate statehood and NDAA for a Self-Administered Zone (SAZ) status.

U Aung Min said a union minister had been assigned to talk with the Wa leadership. No details were given.

Monday, July 13, 2015

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine


Oct. 10 Deadline for Internal Migrants to Arrange Vote

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 08:36 AM PDT

A man examines eligible voter lists in Rangoon on March 30. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

A man examines eligible voter lists in Rangoon on March 30. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Migrant voters who have lived in a given constituency for at least six months but are not enumerated there as eligible voters must register with local election officials by Oct. 10 if they will not return to their native constituency to cast a ballot in Burma's upcoming general election.

The Union Election Commission (UEC) announced the deadline on Friday, in recognition of what is believed to be a large population of internal migrant workers in Burma, many of whom are not likely to have updated the household registration certificates that were used to compile voter lists.

Rangoon's election subcommission chairman Ko Ko estimated last month that up to 100,000 people in the city were not enumerated in the preliminary voter lists for this reason. The lists have been publically posted in four batches beginning in March, with election officials facing criticism over reports that errors on the lists are widespread.

Than Htay, director of The Serenity Initiative (TSI), a civil society group that is assisting with voter education, said there were many internal migrants in areas where small-scale mining and artisan oil drilling take place, such as Hpakant in Kachin State and Mandalay Division, as well as in Rangoon, where job opportunities in the commercial capital draw migrant laborers.

"The UEC has previously said that they will have separate lists for temporary residents who have been living at least 180 days when they announce the nationwide voter lists. But we need to wait and see on that," he said.

The UEC said temporary residents need to submit the application form 3(a) to their ward or village subcommissions after receiving the endorsement of their local ward administrator. Subcommissions will register migrants' names on the list of the township in which they are temporarily resident if they are eligible to vote, and will instruct the native township's subcommission to remove their name, the UEC said.

With the announcement of voter lists nationwide next month, voters will have 14 days to file any additional corrections and ward subcommissions are required to respond within seven days, indicating whether the complaint has been validated or not.

Than Htay said another task for local subcommissions was to strip out the names of voters born between Nov. 9-30, 1997, since voter lists were compiled before the election date was announced and include anyone who turns 18 before Dec. 1.

"Numerous inaccuracies have been found in the preliminary voter lists so they have to correct those lists and another problem is that they have to remove those who won't reach 18 years old from November 9 to November 30 from the lists. So, I think it is impossible to get the complete and accurate voter lists with the remaining period," he added.

The UEC announced on Wednesday that the country's landmark general election would be held on Nov. 8.

The post Oct. 10 Deadline for Internal Migrants to Arrange Vote appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Casualties on Both Sides as Conflict Between DKBA, Govt Drags On

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 08:24 AM PDT

A group of Border Guard Force soldiers patrols the Asia Highway last week. (Photo: Kyaw Kha / The Irrawaddy)

A group of Border Guard Force soldiers patrols the Asia Highway last week. (Photo: Kyaw Kha / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Fighting last week between the Burma Army and ethnic Karen rebels has brought casualties for both sides as a dispute over illegal taxation along the Asia Highway in Karen State remains unresolved.

State media reported on Monday that four soldiers from the Democratic Karen Benevolence Army (DKBA) were killed and three others detained, and that "some army officers from the Tatmadaw [Burma Armed Forces] sacrificed their lives for the country" in the course of nearly 40 clashes between the two sides.

Fighting has taken place on the recently opened Asia Highway and an older road that also links Myawaddy and Kawkareik in Karen State.

"Through cooperation between the Tatmadaw and BGF [Border Guard Force], both highways were able to open for public transportation from July 8 and 9. The situation has stabilized," said a report run in state daily The Mirror, citing the Burma Army-run Myawaddy news agency.

The newspaper said Saw San Aung and Saw Kyaw Thet, two DKBA colonels, were leading the ethnic armed group's recent operations.

Naing Maung Zaw, a spokesperson for the government-allied BGF, said two Burma Army soldiers were killed by a landmine on July 7 and five BGF troops were shot dead the following day.

According to DKBA Capt. Saw Three Htoo, state media's description of the situation in Karen State as "stabilized" was not reflective of the reality on the ground.

Burma Army troops continue to engage the DKBA, Saw Three Htoo said, with fighting between the two sides an almost daily occurrence and government reinforcements bolstering government troop positions in areas that the DKBA has traditionally controlled.

"We have had to abandon two bases already, one is in Kaw Moo village, and on a hilltop in Kaw Moo," he told The Irrawaddy on Monday.

The Karen captain said the head of the DKBA, Gen. Saw Lah Pwe, would lead negotiations with the government to bring an end to hostilities.

"If they continue to chase us and attack us, we need to fight back in order to protect our lives. We are not people who want to be fighting," Saw Three Htoo said.

Clashes reportedly first broke out on June 29, when government troops tried to secure the area ahead of Burma Army Southeastern Division Commander Gen. Tin Maung Win's visit to Myawaddy.

Rebel sources said government troops entered Kawkareik without prior notice and demanded that the DKBA remove security checkpoints and toll stations administered by the ethnic armed group.

Authorities in Karen State have apparently moved to clear the road of the illegal tax stations set up by the DKBA and other Karen rebel groups.

Additional reporting by Min Kha Pan in Myawaddy, Karen State.

The post Casualties on Both Sides as Conflict Between DKBA, Govt Drags On appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Phuketwan Journalists Set to Stand Trial in Thailand Over Coverage of Rohingya Trafficking

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 08:06 AM PDT

 Thai national Chutima Sidasathian and Australian Alan Morison speak to the media outside a criminal court in Phuket, Thailand in April, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

Thai national Chutima Sidasathian and Australian Alan Morison speak to the media outside a criminal court in Phuket, Thailand in April, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

CHIANG MAI — Two journalists with a Thailand-based news website are set to face trial on Tuesday on charges related to the republication of material from a Reuters news agency story in July 2013 alleging members of the Thai military were involved in human trafficking.

The Thai navy filed a lawsuit against Phuketwan's editor Alan Morison and reporter Chutima Sidasathian in December 2013 for defamation and for violating the Computer Crime Act over a single paragraph the news site republished from a Reuters article alleging links between Thai officialdom and the trafficking of Muslim Rohingya fleeing persecution in Burma.

The Thai navy did not pursue Reuters over the original story which formed part of an investigation that won its authors' a prestigious Pulitzer Prize for international reporting.

Alan Morison, an Australian journalist who founded Phuketwan in 2008, said the website would not be updated for the duration of the trial and its immediate future remained unclear.

"We are not really sure what will happen [after the court hearing]," Morison told The Irrawaddy on the eve of the trial which is due to run from July 14-16 at Phuket Provincial Court.

He said the pending charges had curtailed the output of the Phuket-based news outlet which is known for its reporting on the plight of Rohingya fleeing Burma's Arakan State by boat in search of refuge abroad.

"The past 18 months since the Royal Thai Navy laid the charges against us have made it very difficult because we've just devoted more and more of our time to defending ourselves and we haven't been able to cover the issues we'd like to cover, especially the Rohingya exodus that we have been covering for seven years," Morison said.

"It was probably part of the plan for the Royal Thai Navy in laying the charges to shut down Phuketwan and they may well achieve that because they've made life very difficult for us."

Since the lawsuit was filed, conditions for journalists working in Thailand have further deteriorated following a military coup in May 2014. Coup leader and prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has repeatedly hit out at journalists for critical news coverage and threatened to close down outlets that failed to toe the line.

"I think it's sad for Thailand that this case is being pursued, because the relationship between the media and military is very important in any democracy," Morison told The Irrawaddy.

"At the moment, because the government has allowed this case to go ahead, it's a sign that they have a view about the relationship that really doesn't suit any democracy."

On July 9, a group of eight international and regional organizations, including Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and the International Commission of Jurists, issued a joint letter to the Thai prime minister urging him to drop all charges against the two Phuketwan journalists, labeling them in violation of Thailand's commitments under international law.

The organizations said the Computer Crime Act under which the journalists are charged was "clearly being used by the government in this case to suppress media freedom and silence the voice of Phuketwan."

The post Phuketwan Journalists Set to Stand Trial in Thailand Over Coverage of Rohingya Trafficking appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

NLD Says It Intends to Field a Presidential Candidate

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 07:31 AM PDT

 Senior members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) including chairwoman Aung San Suu Kyi, center, hold a press conference in Naypyidaw on Saturday. (Photo: Tun Tun / The Irrawaddy)

Senior members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) including chairwoman Aung San Suu Kyi, center, hold a press conference in Naypyidaw on Saturday. (Photo: Tun Tun / The Irrawaddy)

NAYPYIDAW — Burma's main opposition party says it plans to field a presidential candidate despite an all but certain constitutional ban on its popular chairwoman running for the post.

"The presidential candidate will be chosen from within the party," Aung San Suu Kyi, head of the National League for Democracy (NLD), told media at her residence in Naypyidaw on Saturday, when the party officially announced that it would contest the general election due on Nov. 8.

"[The presidential candidate] must be an NLD member. If [the presidential candidate] is not now, [he or she] must be [an NLD member] later," she added.

The opposition leader, who herself is barred from the presidency under Article 59(f) of Burma's controversial Constitution, said her party had a plan to ensure that its candidate is acceptable to the people.

With the prospect of the NLD putting forward an alternative presidential candidate to Suu Kyi, one NLD lawmaker hinted that party patron Tin Oo or central committee member Win Htein could get the nod.

"Uncle U Tin Oo is 88 now, but still in very good health. U Win Htein is just 74, but he is not very healthy. You would understand what I mean," the lawmaker told The Irrawaddy on condition of anonymity.

Burma's president is elected by Parliament from among three vice presidential candidates in a vote that will likely take place in February or March of next year. The NLD is expected to perform well in the upcoming general election and would likely have significant influence on the presidential pick if its ambitions are realized.

Zaw Thet Htwe, a former political prisoner, said Tin Oo was the second-to-none choice for the position, given his long military career and political experience.

Tin Oo is the former commander in chief of the military and was conferred the military title "Thura," an honor given to members of the Burma Armed Forces for displaying valor in the face of the enemy.

"If the presidential candidate is [to be chosen] from within the party, Thura U Tin Oo, who has a legacy and reputation [as a good soldier and pro-democracy activist], is the only one [to be chosen]," said Zaw Thet Htwe.

Meanwhile Zarganar, a well-known former political prisoner, wrote on his Facebook page on June 30: "U Win Htein should be a presidential candidate. He was the DSA [Defense Services Academy's] best candidate [for his intake]. There is hardly a politician who reads like him. Wouldn't it be more interesting to think that way?"

Suu Kyi said on Saturday that although she had reservations about the credibility of the forthcoming election, she had nonetheless decided to seek re-election in her Kawhmu Township constituency. Suu Kyi won the Rangoon Division seat in a 2012 by-election that her party dominated.

The NLD plans to contest nationwide in the election, but the opposition party said it would not field candidates in some ethnic constituencies under an agreement it has forged with allied ethnic political parties. Burma's ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) is also likely to contest nationwide.

The general election will put 1,171 seats in play between the Union Parliament and regional legislatures.

Suu Kyi over the weekend reiterated concerns expressed by her party in recent weeks that there might not be enough time before polling day to correct errors in the eligible voter lists, which are thought to be riddled with inaccuracies. The NLD has launched a campaign to raise voter awareness on the issue and help people to correct their data if incorrectly enumerated.

Suu Kyi also said the NLD would work toward national reconciliation as its highest priority, and in an subsequent statement on Sunday, the party said it would continue to pursue its yet-to-be-fulfilled objectives—establishing the rule of law and internal peace, and amending the Constitution—that it has been committed to achieving since it won 43 seats in Parliament in the 2012 by-election.

The NLD also offered the broad outlines of its economic platform over the weekend, vowing to push for policies that reduce inequality within a free market system and modernize Burma's agricultural sector, which accounts for about 70 percent of the country's labor force.

The NLD's economic platform also pledges to "devolve fiscal responsibilities and powers to the states and divisions," a key demand of Burma's ethnic minority groups.

The post NLD Says It Intends to Field a Presidential Candidate appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Same Game, Different Tactics: China’s ‘Myanmar Corridor’

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 03:15 AM PDT

Click to view slideshow.

Much has been said and written about Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's recent visit to China, and some commentators have even suggested that it may signal a shift in Beijing's policy toward Myanmar—away from the government and toward a more favorable view of the pro-democracy opposition.

It would be more accurate, however, to say that China's long-term strategic and geopolitical interests in Myanmar remain the same while its tactics vary, depending on the political climate in its troubled neighbor.

This became clear to me when, in June 2002, I had lunch with a senior adviser to Hu Jintao, the leader who later that year became Chinese president. It was a private meeting, so it would be unethical to mention his name, but I can relate the gist of our conversation without violating any trust or confidence.

I wanted to hear his opinion on my theory about Beijing's interests in Myanmar: that China's landlocked provinces needed an outlet for exports through Myanmar territory in order for these regions to catch up with the then-rapidly developing coastal areas.

Rail and road links to China's own ports were too long, and those ports would in any case be clogged with export items produced in the coastal provinces. Disparity in the development between the coast and the vast hinterland could threaten China's national security and internal stability.

This was not a wild guess on my part. In fact, China made its intentions clear as early as 1985. In an article published in the official newsmagazine "Beijing Review" on September 2 of that year, Pan Qi, a former vice minister of communications, outlined the possibilities of finding such an outlet from Yunnan and Sichuan through Myanmar down to the Indian Ocean.

The article mentioned the Myanmar railheads of Myitkyina and Lashio in the north and northeast, and the Ayeyarwaddy River, which flows through almost the entire length of the country, as possible conduits for Chinese exports. Therefore, I surmised, China was keen to maintain the status quo in Myanmar—friendly relations with the military junta.

To my surprise, the Chinese official answered without hesitation: "Absolutely. Those are our interests in Myanmar, we do not want to see any regime change. And Myanmar is not only a potential outlet for us but also an inlet." A strange choice of words and I asked, "an inlet for what?"

His reply startled me: "We are no longer self-sufficient in oil… Most of our imported oil comes from the Middle East, and in case of a future conflict with the United States, they can block the Straits of Malacca. Therefore, we are going to build another pipeline, through Myanmar to Yunnan."

He didn't specify what kind of potential conflict he was envisioning with the Americans, but it could have been an invasion of Taiwan. The United States is treaty-bound to defend Taiwan—also known as the Republic of China—but not even the most hardline hawks in the Pentagon would, in such an eventuality, consider lobbing missiles into Shanghai or Beijing.

But blocking the Straits of Malacca to cut vital oil supplies to China would be an option. And he was right about the pipeline. In November 2008, China and Myanmar agreed to build a US$1.5 billion oil pipeline and a $1.04 billion natural gas pipeline along exactly the route this official had mentioned to me several years before.

Our conversation took place shortly after East Timor had become independent, a prospect that few could have predicted 10 years before. In the spirit of this unexpected outcome, I asked: "What would you do if Daw Aung San Suu Kyi became the president of Myanmar?" (This, of course, was before the implementation of the 2008 constitution, which bars her from assuming the presidency).

He gave me another amazing reply: "But we admire Daw Aung San Suu Kyi! We think she is a fantastic woman!" The conclusion was obvious: Beijing would not want to see any drastic changes in Myanmar, but if they occurred, the Chinese would adjust accordingly to protect their long-term interests. And that is exactly what is happening today.

The Chinese do not want to put all their eggs in one basket. The government in Myanmar may or may not survive in its present shape and form, but the Chinese are prepared for all eventualities. This is not by any stretch of the imagination a policy shift.

Exporting Revolution

With its strategic location between South and Southeast Asia, and between the Chinese hinterland and the Bay of Bengal, Myanmar has long been important to China. Forget about empty Chinese talk about "non-interference" and "respect for Myanmar's sovereignty." That is pure nonsense.

China has always interfered in Myanmar's internal affairs and most probably always will. In the past it was to export world revolution; today it is trade and commerce. With a different emphasis, "the Myanmar corridor" remains of utmost importance to China's policy makers.

During the decade of 1968 to 78, the Chinese poured more aid into the Communist Party of Burma (CPB) than into any other communist movement outside Indochina. A new 20,000 square kilometer base area was established along the Chinese border in Myanmar's northeast.

Unlike the old CPB units, then mainly in the BagoYoma mountains north of Yangon, these new troops were equipped with modern Chinese assault rifles, machine-guns, anti-aircraft guns and mortars. Radio equipment, jeeps, trucks, petrol and even rice and other foodstuffs, cooking oil and kitchen utensils were sent across the frontier.

The Chinese also built two small hydroelectric power stations inside the CPB's new northeast base. A clandestine radio station, "The People's Voice of Burma," began transmitting from the Yunnan side of the border in April 1971. It was later moved to the CPB's headquarters at Panghsang inside Myanmar—now also the headquarters of its successor, the United Wa State Army (UWSA).

Among the items China sent to the CPB was a truckload of newly printed, detailed contour maps of Myanmar. The plan was to push down from the northeast to the BagoYoma mountain range, and eventually capture Yangon. That failed, however, as government forces launched a major offensive against the CPB in the BagoYoma in 1975.

After the loss of other central base areas in the mid-1970s, the CPB became isolated in the northeast, far away from the Myanmar heartland, and nominated a new chairman, Thakin Ba Thein Tin, who had spent years in exile in China in the 1950s and 1960s. The area under its control was almost exclusively populated by various ethnic minorities such as the Wa, Kokang Chinese, Kachin, Akha and Lahu. Only the top leadership and most of the political commissars came from central Myanmar.

Most Western scholars have suggested that China's post-1968 support for the CPB was prompted by anti-Chinese riots in Yangon in June 1967. But it was not a knee-jerk reaction to those events.

Preparations for the push into Myanmar began shortly after the military takeover in 1962.

China had enjoyed cordial relations with the government that was overthrown, led by U Nu, and had little confidence in the new regime led by Gen. Ne Win. China also had grander plans for the entire region. It was going to export revolution to Southeast Asia, and the CPB was a vital link in that strategy. The CPB was, in turn, expected to link up with communist parties in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and as far away as Australia.

The 1967 anti-Chinese riots were merely an excuse for implementing a plan that had been drawn up years before by China's intelligence chief, Kang Sheng, a master strategist who worked closely with Thakin Ba Thein Tin and other Southeast Asian communist leaders as well as Ted Hill, the chairman of a tiny pro-Chinese communist party in Australia.

In March and April 1989, the hilltribe rank-and-file of the CPB's army, tired of fighting for an ideology of which they understood very little, rose in mutiny against the party's ageing Bamar leadership. Thakin Ba Thein Tin and the other party veterans fled across the border to China, where they were allowed to settle and retire—and eventually died.

After the 1989 mutiny, the CPB broke up into four different armies, all based along ethnic lines. Of these, the UWSA was by far the most numerous and powerful. The 1989 mutiny actually suited China's interests, and there are strong suggestions that China's clandestine services actually encouraged the Wa and others to rise up against their Bamar bosses.

Following the death of Mao Zedong in 1976 and Deng Xiaoping's return to the political fold, China changed its policy towards the region. Now, the emphasis was on trade and economic expansion, not Maoist-style world revolution.

Securing the 'Corridor'

The CPB's leaders were aware of China's new policies and in internal party documents dated before the mutiny and seen by this contributor, Thakin Ba Thein Tin accused the Chinese of having become "revisionists."

In a desperate last attempt to save the party, Thakin Ba Thein Tin had in early 1989 decided to send a leading cadre to Laos, a Soviet ally, to contact Moscow. That was pure lunacy since the Soviet Union was then ruled by Mikhail Gorbachev, a reformer who would have no interest whatsoever in lending support to the CPB. In any event, the mutiny broke out before the CPB emissary could reach Laos, so even he had to escape to China.

But Beijing was not going to give up the secure position it had cultivated inside Myanmar since the late 1960s. In May 1989, the UWSA entered into a ceasefire agreement with the Myanmar government, which, on the one hand, suited China's new commercial interests. But it was also imperative to strengthen the UWSA. After all, the Chinese had had a long-standing relationship with most of the leaders of the UWSA, dating back to their CPB days.

Thus, the UWSA was able to purchase vast quantities of weapons from China and, according to the April 26, 2013 issue of the prestigious military affairs journal "Jane's Defence Weekly," even armed transport helicopters:

"The acquisition of helicopters marks the latest step in a significant upgrade for the UWSA, which has emerged as the largest and best-equipped non-state military force in Asia and, arguably, the world," the journal wrote.

In the second half of 2012, the UWSA had acquired armored vehicles for the first time. These included both Chinese PTL-02 6×6 wheeled "tank destroyers" and an armored combat vehicle that IHS Jane's identified as the Chinese 4×4 ZFB-05. Furthermore, the UWSA has obtained from China huge quantities of small-arms and ammunition—and around 100 HN-5 series man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), a Chinese version of the first-generation Russian Strela-2 (SA-7 "Grail") system.

The UWSA today is better armed than the CPB ever was. It can field at least 20,000 well-equipped troops apart from thousands of village militiamen and other supportive forces. Moreover, the top leaders of the UWSA are usually accompanied by Chinese intelligence officers who provide advice and guidance.

So what is China up to? Why this arming of a non-state military force at the same time as Beijing has had cordial relations with the Myanmar government since it abandoned its policy of supporting communist insurrections in the region?

It is no doubt a way of putting pressure on Myanmar at a time when its relations with the United States are improving. As China sees it, it cannot afford to "lose" Myanmar to the West. A strong UWSA provides China with a strategic advantage and is also a bargaining chip in negotiations with Naypyidaw.

When President's Office Minister U Aung Min visited Monywa in November 2012 to meet local people protesting a controversial Chinese-backed copper mining project, he openly admitted: "We are afraid of China… we don't dare to have a row with [them]. If they feel annoyed with the shutdown of their projects and resume their support to the communists, the economy in border areas would backslide."

By "the communists" he clearly meant the UWSA and its allies, among them the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) in Kokang, another former CPB force, which resorted to armed struggle in February this year. China, predictably, has denied any involvement in that conflict, but the fact remains that most of the MNDAA's weaponry and vast quantities of ammunition have been supplied by the UWSA.

According to one well-placed source, China is indirectly "teaching the Myanmar government a lesson in Kokang: move too much to the West, and this can happen." At the same time, China is playing another "softer" card by being actively involved in so-called "peace talks" between the Myanmar government and the country's multitude of ethnic rebel armies.

Whether China wants to export revolution or expand and protect commercial interests, it apparently feels that it needs to have a solid foothold inside Myanmar. There is no better and more loyal ally in this regard than the UWSA and its affiliates.

Inviting Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to China essentially serves the same purpose: Put pressure on the government in Naypyidaw and keep its options open for the future—all with the aim of securing the vital "Myanmar corridor."

This article originally appeared in the July 2015 issue of The Irrawaddy magazine.

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Trafficking Boss, Accomplices Arrested in Raid on Thai Shrimp Factory

Posted: 13 Jul 2015 02:41 AM PDT

Migrant workers from Burma are being moved from a shrimp peeling facility near Bangkok after an anti-human trafficking operation last week. (Photo: Shwe Lote Thar / Facebook)

Migrant workers from Burma are being moved from a shrimp peeling facility near Bangkok after an anti-human trafficking operation last week. (Photo: Shwe Lote Thar / Facebook)

CHIANG MAI, Thailand — A joint task force of Thai police and anti-human trafficking personnel last week arrested five accomplices and the leader of a human trafficking ring near Bangkok, following the rescue of scores of migrants from Burma who had been confined in a shrimp peeling facility.

Maung Htone, a Burmese national from Mon State, was apprehended along with four employment brokers and the owner of the facility, according to a migrant rights advocate who assisted with the operation that freed 64 captive laborers.

"[We] had to go there about three or four times, and we closely observed and took photos before we could raid the factory," Khun Naung Oo of the Myanmar Association of Thailand (MAT), which works collaboratively with Thai authorities to identify and rescue trafficking victims, told The Irrawaddy.

"Most people dare not go there, as it is a very notorious place."

The migrants, mostly women from Mon State and Tenasserim Division, were among some 400 employees at the facility, he said. Those removed from the site by a rescue team last Wednesday had been confined in the facility with no work documents.

A worker named Hsan Moe Aung had recently escaped and sought help at the Burmese Embassy in Bangkok, which alerted the MAT and Thailand's anti-human trafficking task force.

"According to those who were rescued, the employer and middlemen [employment brokers] sometimes tortured them and threatened to shoot them if they resisted. They also said they were sometimes confined in [small] rooms," Khun Naung Oo said.

MAT said Maung Htone, who is now in custody as police search for several other accomplices, was in charge of a major human trafficking operation transporting migrants from southeastern Burma to Mahachai, a port town near the Thai capital that is one of the seats of Thailand's lucrative seafood industry.

Thai authorities are providing temporary shelter for the rescued workers, Khun Naung Oo said, and they will be deported to Burma shortly.

Thailand is host to an estimated three million migrant laborers from Burma, though only about half of them have legitimate work documents. Many migrants fall prey to human traffickers, who charge exorbitant fees for the promise of steady work and immigration paperwork.

In many cases, the documents never materialize, leaving migrants unable to move freely or seek legal recourse for poor conditions, extortion, low pay and physical abuse.

The country has come under increasing pressure in recent years over its labor and immigration practices, as it has repeatedly failed to meet international standards or adequately address the issue of human trafficking.

Last year, the US State Department labeled Thailand as a Tier 3 country—the lowest ranking on its annual Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report—but waived sanctions that can accompany the designation.

This year's TIP report is due out in the coming weeks, with Thailand's ranking unlikely to improve. Thai authorities and migrant brokers have also been implicated in a massive trafficking syndicate moving stateless Rohingya refugees from Burma and migrants from Bangladesh across Thai territory en route to Malaysia.

The infamous human cargo scheme led to a regional migrant crisis earlier this year, as the early May discovery of mass graves in southern Thailand led to a sudden crackdown of the trade that caused traffickers to abandon boatloads of migrants at sea.

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Wary of Climate Change, Vanuatu Villagers Seek Higher Ground

Posted: 12 Jul 2015 11:47 PM PDT

Samuel, left, stands with his father Phillip in the ruins of their home in Port Vila, Vanuatu, following the landfall of Cyclone Pam in March 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

Samuel, left, stands with his father Phillip in the ruins of their home in Port Vila, Vanuatu, following the landfall of Cyclone Pam in March 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

TAKARA, Vanuatu — Many people living in this coastal village in Vanuatu believe the March cyclone that sent waves surging through their homes was the latest and most dramatic sign of climate change.

They are now considering rebuilding their entire community on higher ground.

Cyclone Pam struck the Pacific archipelago three months ago, blasting the islands with winds of 270 kilometers (168 miles) per hour, killing at least 11 people and affecting 180,000 more by destroying their homes and crops. Many residents saw it as part of broader environmental changes they've witnessed in recent years, from higher sea levels to trees bearing fruit out of season.

"We have seen a lot of changes in our weather patterns. The level of the sea rise. And it is affecting the nation at the moment," said Vanuatu President Baldwin Lonsdale in an interview with The Associated Press. "The impact of climate change is quite real in Vanuatu."

Parts of Vanuatu are low-lying and are starting to see visible signs of rising sea levels as the Earth warms and ice caps melt. The world's oceans have risen nearly 7 centimeters (nearly 3 inches) since 1992, scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say, and are projected to rise at a faster rate in the decades to come.

More damaging than the overall rise, however, are the unpredictable surges brought on by more severe storms. While scientists caution that singular events like the cyclone can't be attributed solely to climate change, many say there is a link to a general increase in violent weather.

"The short answer would be that certainly there is a connection between climate change and extreme weather," said Debarati Guha-Sapir, a professor at the University of Louvain School of Public Health in Brussels. "The numbers of storms and high wind events have been increasing. So have droughts, in fact, and all of these are very connected to climate change."

She said there's likely to be an increase in catastrophic flooding in coming years and people need to better prepare for that.

Vanuatu isn't the only Pacific island nation figuring out how to face climate change. Low-lying Kiribati has purchased land in Fiji, which Kiribati President Anote Tong says is an investment and also a guarantee in case the entire nation needs to move.

In Takara, which is on Vanuatu's main island of Efate, village chief Benjamin Tamata said he wants to move the village of about 200 people inland by about 300 meters (1,000 feet) to move away from the rising seas and to avoid future storm surges.

"When the cyclone came to my village, it's not only the cyclone," he said. "With the sea level rising, it came through and damaged our houses. And some of the people run away."

He said many escaped to a nearby school, but now it's time to plan for the long term.

"We try to relocate," he said. "To take all the people from this village and we try to relocate where we can be safe, or where we can survive from the sea."

If Takara does move inland, it won't be the first village to do so in Vanuatu. A decade ago, dozens of villagers on Tegua Island moved inland in what the United Nations described as one of the first cases of mass displacement triggered by global warming.

"Staff from the meteorological office and hazard department, they went and assessed the level of sea rise," said Lonsdale. "And they advised people to move inland. And so they assisted. They assisted the communities and we have moved them farther up from the coastal area."

NOAA, NASA, the Japanese weather agency, and the World Meteorological Organization all declared 2014 the hottest year on record, with NOAA putting 2014 at an average of 58.26 degrees Fahrenheit (14.6 Celsius).

As the world gets warmer, water expands, so the seas rise. But on top of that, ice sheets in Greenland and west Antarctica are melting, as are world glaciers, and scientists worry that meltwater will dramatically increase sea level by about 1 meter by the end of the century.

Islanders are also noticing other effects of climate change, said Shadrack Welegtabit, the director of Vanuatu's National Disaster Management Office. He said trees are bearing fruit and nuts all year round, instead of in distinct seasons like in the past.

"Not only in Vanuatu, but probably in the Pacific as a whole, climate change does have an impact," Welegtabit said. "We are beginning to see changes in the weather patterns. We are beginning to have more intense weather, more severe cyclones."

Vanuatu has made strides in its rebuilding efforts since the cyclone, and many tourism operators are hoping that the tourists who help power the economy will soon return. But for others, like Vila North School Principal Elina Jaywelson Gilu, the rebuild has been painfully slow.

She's still operating three classes from a tent provided by aid agency Unicef while she waits for her classroom buildings to get new roofs.

"You can just imagine our classes are very noisy, and it's really, really hard to get the students to concentrate," she said. "Because they are all under one roof and it's not been partitioned to separate the classes. And they are all sitting on the floor."

Shirley Laban, the climate change adaptation manager in Vanuatu for aid agency Oxfam, said its time for the world to get serious about tackling climate change.

"What more can we show you? Category-5 Cyclone Pam is the real evidence already," she said. "We need to cut down on this carbon emission. Because as long as we do not cut down, vulnerable individuals, countries, women and children will continue to be impacted."

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Seoul: North Korea Media Confirms Purging of Defense Chief

Posted: 12 Jul 2015 10:47 PM PDT

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un receives applause as he guides the multiple-rocket launching drill of women's sub-units under KPA Unit 851, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) April 24, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un receives applause as he guides the multiple-rocket launching drill of women's sub-units under KPA Unit 851, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) April 24, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

SEOUL — North Korea has officially confirmed the purging of its defense chief two months after Seoul's spy service said he had been executed for disloyalty to leader Kim Jong Un, a South Korean official said Monday.

South Korea's National Intelligence Service told lawmakers in May that People's Armed Forces Minister Hyon Yong Chol was killed by anti-aircraft gunfire for talking back to Kim, complaining about his policies and sleeping during a meeting.

The North's state media has since not mentioned Hyon or his disappearance. But over the weekend, the country's official Korean Central News Agency named army general Pak Yong Sik as the armed forces minister in a dispatch about a meeting with a Lao military delegation.

South Korean Unification Ministry spokesman Jeong Joon-Hee told reporters on Monday that this confirmed Hyon's replacement and purging.

Since taking power upon the death of his dictator father Kim Jong Il in December 2011, Kim has orchestrated a series of executions, purgings and personnel reshuffles in what outside analysts say is an attempt to bolster his grip on power. Some experts say repeated bloody power shifts indicate the young leader is still struggling to establish himself.

South Korean officials say 70 North Korean officials have been executed since Kim's inauguration. The most notable execution before Hyon's happened in 2013 when Kim had his uncle and No. 2, Jang Song Thaek, executed for alleged treason.

Pak, known as a top official at the General Political Bureau of the Korean People's Army, is considered one of Kim's closest associates and is among the officials who have accompanied Kim on various public activities mentioned in state media.

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China: Uighurs Deported From Thailand Wanted to Join Jihad

Posted: 12 Jul 2015 10:38 PM PDT

 A suspected Uighur from China's region of Xinjiang holds his son at a temporary shelter after they were detained in 2014 near the Thailand-Malaysia border in Hat Yai. (Photo: Reuters)

A suspected Uighur from China's region of Xinjiang holds his son at a temporary shelter after they were detained in 2014 near the Thailand-Malaysia border in Hat Yai. (Photo: Reuters)

BEIJING — China's government has alleged that more than 100 minority Muslim Uighurs who were sent back by Thailand after fleeing China were on their way to fight in the Middle East and that some were implicated in terrorist activities at home.

Thailand has been harshly criticized by the United Nations, the European Union and human rights groups for repatriating the 109 Uighurs back to China, where activists say they face persecution, instead of sending them to Turkey, which has accepted other Uighurs.

The Uighurs (pronounced WEE-gurs), a Turkic-speaking Muslim minority in China's far western region of Xinjiang, have complained of harsh cultural and religious suppression as well as economic marginalization under Chinese rule. Beijing has accused Uighur separatists of terrorism in Xinjiang, where ethnic violence has left hundreds of people dead.

China's official Xinhua News Agency, citing the Ministry of Public Security, said late Saturday that the 109 "illegal immigrants" had been on their way "to join jihad" in Turkey, Syria or Iraq, and that 13 of them had fled China after being implicated in terrorist activities. Another two had escaped detention, according to Xinhua.

The report also claimed that a Chinese police investigation had uncovered several gangs recruiting people for jihad, and that Turkish diplomats in some Southeast Asian countries had facilitated the illegal movement of people.

The Uighurs were detained in Thailand more than a year ago, but claimed to be Turkish. A group of 173 were sent to Turkey after Thai authorities said they determined they were indeed Turkish, but the 109 were found to be Chinese, according to Thai deputy government spokesman Maj-Gen Verachon Sukhonthapatipak.

Another eight arrived from Thailand to Turkey on Saturday and 52 remaining Uighurs would be sent back to their country once their nationalities were verified, Verachon said Saturday.

Xinhua said that many of the 109 Uighurs had been radicalized by materials sent by the exiled World Uyghur Congress, a Munich, Germany-based rights group for the ethnic minority, and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, designated by China as a terrorist organization.

In response to the report, Dilxat Raxit, World Uyghur Congress spokesman, said Sunday that China was "shirking responsibility for Uighurs fleeing because of its policy of suppression. The so-called radicals are those who hope to flee China and live a stable and dignified life in a safe and free country."

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Burma’s Peace Process: Matching Words with Deeds

Posted: 12 Jul 2015 05:00 PM PDT

Government representatives shake hands with ethnic delegates during peace talks at the Myanmar Peace Center in Rangoon in March 2015. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

Government representatives shake hands with ethnic delegates during peace talks at the Myanmar Peace Center in Rangoon in March 2015. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

Negotiations on a nationwide ceasefire agreement between the government and ethnic armed groups that had appeared to be progressing well, recently hit a stumbling block.

On March 30, 2015, the government's Union Peacemaking Work Committee (UPWC) and the ethnics' negotiating bloc, the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT), announced the completion of a draft Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) following more than 17 months of deliberations.

Whether or not key decision makers on both sides will sign it into a "national treaty" remains an open question.

On June 2-9, leaders of 17 Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) gathered at Law Khee Lar, home to the headquarters of one of the most powerful ethnic armed groups the Karen National Union, for a summit attended by more than 190 leaders, representatives, special guests and observers.

The international guest list included the UN Secretary General's Special Advisor on Burma Vijay Nambiar, China's Asian Affairs Envoy Sun Guoxiang and Yuji Muri of the Nippon Foundation.

At the summit, EAO leaders pored over the NCA draft word by word. They discussed, debated and finally reached a consensus affirming their collective commitment to a peace deal that all could abide by.

Pragmatism and idealism were two guiding principles not easy to reconcile, but ethnic leaders managed to find a path forward and settle their differences.

Political principles, ceasefire codes of conduct and military integration were extensively discussed during the dialogue which was extended from the originally proposed five days to eight.

Some 14 amendments to the NCA were proposed and ethnic representatives also formed a new and higher level delegation to negotiate with the government on the proposed amendments.

However, the government's immediate reaction to the new negotiating bloc was lukewarm and they indicated their opposition to any amendments to the draft.

Deal or No Deal?

The signing of the NCA is now up in the air, with the impasse sending mixed messages to peace supporters around the country. Many have begun to assume that the deal has reached a dead end.

A closer look at the negotiation process reveals issues in the approaches and practices on both sides.

From the beginning, both the government and ethnic armed groups have evinced uneasiness over making certain compromises. Some EAOs have faced ideological rifts not only between groups but within their own organizations.

There are groups among EAOs that see the peace process as an opportunity to address their political grievances through political dialogue. This view is generally supported by EAOs, but some appear to disagree on timing and strategy.

The more idealistic groups demand some form of assurance from the government before committing themselves to a ceasefire deal. Despite differences, there is a prevailing notion that a national-level political dialogue, which is embedded in the NCA, would be the only way to address the root causes of ethnic issues.

On the government's part, it has failed to seize the opportunity to win over the hearts and minds of EAOs. The government has not made clear whether laws that could be used to arrest and punish people associated with non-state armed groups, such as the Unlawful Association Act, will be scrapped after a peace deal.

In paying lip service to nationwide peace and national dialogue, the government has failed to match words with actions. Ongoing armed conflicts in some ethnic minority areas and the displacement of civilians has simply fomented skepticism among EAOs about the government's true intentions.

Ethnic leaders also view the military-drafted 2008 Constitution as depriving ethnic minorities of their rights and see little gain in a peace deal unless the charter is amended.

EAOs are wary of any deal that resembles pacts of the past, when the military government was only interested in disarming ethnic armed groups and transforming them into pliable entities such as Border Guard Forces under army control—not in addressing underlying political problems.

During the negotiations, Burma Army officials maintained that military integration meant disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR), while EAOs saw the process of integration as security sector reform (SSR) which has wider implications than DDR and includes a whole range of reforms including of the judiciary and the police.

Nai Hong Sar, chief negotiator with the NCCT, said the proposed amendments to the NCA primarily concerned wording in the document that was unclear or controversial. However, as outlined above, there are factors other than language that could derail the NCA.

Pursuing Political Dialogue

Key stakeholders, including political parties and civil society organizations that have been working on a framework for National Dialogue, have questioned the continuous deferral of the NCA. A number of political parties have been impatient for a ceasefire deal which, if not concluded, raises uncertainty as to the emergence of a National Dialogue.

In 2014, the two main political party alliances, the Nationalities Brotherhood Federation and the Federal Democratic Alliance, alongside other parties, formed a 10 member committee called the Peace and Political Dialogue Initiative Committee. The committee produced a draft framework for political dialogue.

Burma's leading opposition party, the National League for Democracy, also drafted a framework in 2014. The United Nationalities Alliance, which is made up of mainly ethnic political parties and won seats in the 1990 election, released its own framework for political dialogue in March 2015.

The Myanmar Peace Centre published a booklet describing the basic principles, aims and working procedures of a proposed political dialogue and cited examples of the frameworks drawn up by the above political groups.

Most of the frameworks share very similar objectives, including instituting a federal union and addressing root causes of political grievances.

Many of the political groups argue that political dialogue should not be held back until after the NCA is signed. In other words, the NCA should not necessarily be the mechanism for ushering in political dialogue.

Many stakeholders are keen to see the emergence of a common framework for political dialogue before the election season sweeps in—and the clock is ticking.

Recent efforts to amend the Constitution in Parliament have proven fruitless. The military continues to hold onto, and wield, its veto power, making it almost impossible to advance a more democratic charter and nation. Several political leaders and MPs have expressed their disappointment over the military's ongoing legislative power.

The peace process, on the other hand, is a different beast to the parliamentary push for constitutional amendments. Both the government and the military have committed themselves to the peace process.

On Burma's Union Day in February this year, the government led by President Thein Sein, Union Parliament Speaker Shwe Man and the ministers of ethnic affairs, together with leaders of four EAOs, recommitted to the peace process by signing a non-binding agreement pledging to build a union based on "democratic and federal principles."

At present, the peace process is at a crossroads. It presents the opportunity, for the first time, for all ethnic and non-state armed groups, the government, the military and other stakeholders to work together and peacefully resolve the country's long lasting civil conflict.

We hope that our leaders are wise enough to embrace the quickest, surest way to end the suffering of 51 million people.

Dr Sai Oo works with the Pyidaungsu Institute and attended the recent EAO Summit in Law Khee Lar. The opinions expressed here are his own and do not necessarily represent the Institute.

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