Thursday, July 4, 2013

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine


Lower House Passes Controversial Publishing Bill

Posted: 04 Jul 2013 05:30 AM PDT

Local journalists campaign for greater press freedom in Rangoon on Aug. 4, 2012. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

Local journalists campaign for greater press freedom in Rangoon on Aug. 4, 2012. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Burma's Lower House of Parliament approved a controversial Printers and Publishers Registration bill put forward by the country's Ministry of Information on Thursday, with few amendments to draft legislation that press advocates have decried as an affront to free speech.

According to the bill—and to journalists' dismay—the Ministry of Information would maintain the authority to issue publication licenses as well as to revoke or terminate those licenses if the holders violate the rules proposed in the bill. In addition, publishers can be brought to court and fined US$300 to $10,000 for offenses that include "disturbing the rule of law" and "inciting unrest," provisions that critics say are too vague and ripe for abuse.

Ye Tun, a parliamentarian from the Lower House, said lawmakers had scrapped some provisions of the ministry's draft and made improvements to the bill.

"We've deleted the rule like 'a publication can be declared illegal for violating the Constitution and other existing laws,'" he said.

"But, if a publication violates the law, people can complain about it to the information minister, who has the authority to declare the publication 'illegal' and terminate it," Ye Tun added. "We have also added a provision that publishers can complain at a court to say they didn't break the law and seek the court's ruling."

The draft voted on by the Lower House on Thursday will be sent to the Upper House. Approval from the latter would pass the bill into law.

Zaw Thet Htwe from Burma's Press Council said he was disappointed with the vote because the newly approved bill neglected to incorporate amendments proposed by the council.

"They didn't keep their promise to fix the points that violate our freedom," he said. "We're going to hold an emergency meeting."

The Ministry of Information published the Printers and Publishers Registration bill on Feb. 27, and a few days later the draft law was sent to Parliament without any input from local media associations.

Since then, journalists have strongly objected to the proposed bill, which will replace even tougher rules established in 1962 by the government of the late dictator Ne Win. The existing law allows the government to revoke licenses at any time and carries a maximum seven-year sentence for failing to register publications, though the current government of reformist President Thein Sein has declined to prosecute any publications for violating those provisions.

Thai Police in Chiang Mai Arrest 200 Burmese Migrant Workers

Posted: 04 Jul 2013 05:37 AM PDT

Arrested Burmese migrants in Chiang Mai wait on instructions. (Photo: manager.co.th)

Arrested Burmese migrants in Chiang Mai wait on instructions. (Photo: manager.co.th)

Authorities in Chiang Mai, northern Thailand, have been rounding up more than 200 Burmese migrant workers on allegations that they are involved in crimes or lack legal permits to stay in the country.

Migrant rights groups complain however, that Thai authorities have started a major crackdown on registered or unregistered Burmese migrants.

Last week, police began setting up checkpoints around Chiang Mai in order to identify migrants and dozens were arrested in subsequent days.

Toom Mawk Harn, a coordinator at the Migrants Assistance Program, said authorities were carrying out a city-wide operation that targeted Shan migrants from Burma. "It has been over a week that we hear about the detention of the migrants, mostly near the Shan communities," he said.

Provincial police chief Lt-Gen Suthep told Thai media on Wednesday, "Officials only arrested illegal migrants. They arrested 215 migrants and seized 21 motorbike, pistol or gun on Monday and Tuesday, July 1-2. Those arrested include ones that committed crimes and those without legal documents."

Suthep denied that migrants were being targeted because they were part of a supposed criminal youth gang calling themselves the TaiYai (Shan) Samurai gang, which may involve both Thai and Shan. The officer said "there is no such gang called TaiYai Samurai."

Local Thai media have been covering several crimes that occurred in Chiang Mai in late June, when one Thai man was stabbed to death at night. The reports claimed that a TaiYai Samurai gang of ethnic Shans from Burma were responsible for the crimes.

Although authorities deny that the migrant arrest is related to the media reports, previous crackdowns have also coincided with crimes that were supposedly carried about migrants. In 2009, a large crackdown in Chiang Mai got under way after a Thai student at Mae Jo University was allegedly raped by several Shan men.

Many Shan migrant workers from northeastern Burma stay in Chiang Mai, where they provide a source of cheap labor for the construction sector, restaurants, shops, domestic cleaning work and agriculture. There are approximately 80,000 registered migrants in Chiang Mai and many thousands of unregistered workers.

Among the Shan community in Chiang Mai the arrests have sparked fears and some have decided to not go to work or Thai language classes, as they want to avoid travelling during the crackdown. Even migrants with legal documents are arrested they are only let go if their Thai employers demand their release, some Shan have said.

"There is fear among migrants as police check every day on all the streets," said Saengmaung Mangkorn, the chairman of the Tai Yai Education and Culture Association, a Shan group based in Chiang Mai.

A Thai official at Chiang Mai Immigration Office, who declined to be named as he was unauthorized to speak to the media, said the wave of arrests only targeted Burmese migrants. "These arrests of illegal migrant are not related to the Samurai gang problem," he said.

Shan community leaders are collaborating with Thai authorities in order to end the crackdown and will meet with Chiang Mai police next week.

At Rangoon Mosque, Buddhist Monks Accept Alms and Discuss Tolerance

Posted: 04 Jul 2013 04:05 AM PDT

Buddhist and Muslim leaders talk about religious tolerance at a mosque in Rangoon on Wednesday. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

Buddhist and Muslim leaders talk about religious tolerance at a mosque in Rangoon on Wednesday. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON—Following a wave of anti-Muslim riots across Burma, an interfaith group has brought Buddhist monks and Muslim leaders together at a mosque to discuss ways of alleviating widespread religious tensions.

In the first of a planned series of monthly meetings, about 90 people attended the dialogue in Rangoon's North Okkalapa Township on Wednesday, with the interfaith group hosting alms for the monks after the event by offering a free meal as a goodwill gesture.

Myint Thein, a religious leader from the Myanmar Muslim Network who attended the meeting, said tension between the country's majority Buddhists and minority Muslims had come to the fore as communities enjoyed more freedom of expression under the new quasi-civilian government but lacked adequate education about different faiths.

He said that under the former military junta—which ruled the country for nearly half a century, until 2011—it was difficult to discuss or write about religious issues.

"Our people lived under military control for a long time," he said. "We did not have a chance to study many religions. This is why there is religious conflict in our country."

U Pyinya Siri, a senior Buddhist monk, called for tolerance and respect for the law while addressing religious conflict.

"When someone acts violently against you, you should not lash back," he said. "You can go tell the authorities to pursue the case. By doing this, it is possible to achieve peace."

San Ni, a leader from the Interfaith Peace and Unity Group, which organized the event, said religious conflict could scare away foreign investment, which the government is desperate to attract after decades of isolation from the international community.

"We need to carefully analyze why we are experiencing religious problems," he said. "If we can stop whoever is spreading hate in our communities, we can successfully have peace."

The interfaith group says it plans to hold monthly meetings at different locations in Rangoon, including a Christian church.

The initiative follows two major monks' conferences last month which also discussed religious tension in the country. At the second conference, Buddhist leaders urged monks to unite to maintain peace in the country, but also said they supported the proposed restrictions on interfaith marriage and would pressure politicians to accept the bill.

Clashes between Buddhists and Muslims in the past year have left more than 200 people dead and more than 150,000 people—mostly Muslims—displaced.

Tensions Escalate Between UWSA and Govt Troops

Posted: 04 Jul 2013 03:24 AM PDT

United Wa State Army (UWSA) troops on parade in Panghsang. (Photo: SHAN)

United Wa State Army (UWSA) troops on parade in Panghsang. (Photo: SHAN)

Tensions have mounted between government troops and Wa rebels who form Burma's largest ethnic armed group, with both sides said to be just waiting on orders to open fire.

The United Wa State Army (UWSA), a force of more than 20,000 well-equipped fighters with modern weaponry that reportedly includes transport helicopters and surface-to-air missiles, signed a ceasefire agreement with the government in 1989 but has recently ramped up its demands for greater autonomy from the central government.

"Both sides are preparing for war," said one well-informed source in Tachileik, a southern Shan State town on the Thai border. "They are now on alert. They deployed their troops in key positions. It seems they are only waiting for orders to open fire from higher officials. The situation is not good."

He said possible confrontation areas included Mongton, Mong Hsat and Pongpakhem in southern Shan State.

He added that Burmese police, paramilitary militias and an anti-narcotics taskforce were also deployed at checkpoints around Tachileik and were questioning any person suspected of having connections to the UWSA.

UWSA officials at a liaison office in Tachileik have left the border town office for Mongton and Mong Hsat townships. The UWSA has four liaison offices in southern Shan State, in Tachileik, Kengtung, Tangyan and Lashio townships.

Saw Lwin, a UWSA officer in southern Shan State's Wang Kaung district, told The Irrawaddy on Thursday that relations between the two sides deteriorated after the UWSA refused to withdraw troops from its three mountainous bases, as requested recently by the government.

"Our troops have surrounded the government troops at some places while the government troops have also surrounded our troops in some areas," Saw Lwin said.

"We are worried a lot about government troops attacking the Shan State Army-North [SSA-North]," he added, referring to an allied rebel armed group in the state. "They are trying to block the road that we and the Shan army used for our troops' movement."

Some observers said the tensions might also be related to the UWSA's recent call for the creation of a Wa autonomous region in the southern part of Shan State and some border territories of Karenni State. The UWSA asked that the towns of Mongton, Mong Hsat and Tachileik be included in the autonomous region as well.

San Tun, a UWSA leader, told the BBC Burmese language service recently that the UWSA sought self-determination because the Wa wanted direct relations with the Union-level government, an elevation from current dealings that are largely with the Shan State government.

He said the Wa's pursuit of self-determination did not mean the ethnic rebels were going to separate from Burma, and instead would more appropriately reflect the political status that the Wa people deserved, given the UWSA's governing capacity and formidable army.

San Tun said the UWSA would continue to seek self-determination and await the government's response, but would not hesitate to engage in armed struggle for the cause if necessary.

The UWSA has two military units—one in northern Shan State at its headquarters in Panghsang and another in southern Shan State. The southern unit consists of five brigades with 1,500 fighters in each brigade.

Maj Sai Lao Hseng, the spokesman for Shan State Army-South (SSA-South), another ethnic Shan rebel group in southern Shan State, said the government army had reinforced its troops while UWSA soldiers remained on alert.

He said that the elevated tensions might be related to a government request for UWSA officials to provide information about all of its southern unit's military bases in southern Shan State. On June 27, Col Soe Tint Naing, a commander of the government army based in Pongpakhem, asked UWSA southern unit officials to submit a list of its bases positioned along Burma's eastern Salween River.

Despite the talk of impending conflict, Sai Lao Hseng said he did not think a fight between the UWSA and government troops was imminent. The SSA-South spokesman cited government reluctance to engage militarily as Naypyidaw is in the process of working out peace deals with ethnic armed groups across the country.

Deputy Minister Ye Htut in the Hot Seat Over Defamatory Anonymous Blog

Posted: 04 Jul 2013 03:21 AM PDT

A screen shot from Dr. Sate Phwar's blog, "The Voice of Myanmar," shows the controversial blog post which criticizes Parliament for operating above the law.

RANGOON — An investigation into the identity of a high-profile anonymous blogger who criticized Parliament has cast a shadow over Burma's Ministry of Information, with revelations of a secret ministry program aimed at discrediting political dissidents.

A parliamentary investigation of the blogger, who criticized the legislature for acting "above the law," has uncovered separate evidence that the ministry secretly operated a radio program a few years ago to discredit democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi and other democratic dissidents.

The now-defunct "Padauk Land" radio program was directly controlled by former Information Minister Kyaw Hsan, according to a report by the investigation commission which was read to Parliament on Monday. A separate director was appointed for the radio program, whose contributors included the current deputy information minister, Ye Htut, who is also President Thein Sein's spokesman.

Ko Ko Hlaing, one of the president's advisors, was another contributor on the show, the report added.

The commission's findings suggest that the Ministry of Information was more aggressively involved than previously assumed in propaganda campaigns of the former military junta, which ceded power to Thein Sein's quasi-civilian government in 2011. The ministry under the junta also operated a censorship board and defamed political dissidents through state-owned media.

The findings have also raised speculations that although the ministry has disbanded its censorship board and pledged to transform its mouthpiece newspapers into public service media, it may still be actively bad-mouthing opposition leaders behind the scenes.

These speculations are further fueled by widespread allegations in the media and now by Parliament that Ye Htut, the deputy minister, could be behind the anonymous blog posts.

Although the parliamentary commission on Monday did not announce the identity of the blogger, known by the pen name Dr. Sate Phwar, the commission's chairman said they found evidence that could implicate the deputy minister.

The commission interviewed officials from the ministry and the President's Office as well as journalists from Eleven Media Group, a local news agency which had earlier reported on Ye Htut's possible involvement in the blog.

The Daily Eleven, a daily newspaper published by Eleven Media, noted similarities in the writing styles of a website and Facebook account suspected to belong to Ye Htut when compared with Dr. Sate Phwar's blog. Ye Htut, an active Facebook user, has an official account on the social media site where he often shares national news and government updates, but a separate anonymous account on the site also posts a real-time news feed about his activities and travels.

The anonymous Facebook account, registered as "Sit Aung," stopped posting updates when the parliamentary commission began its investigation into Dr. Sate Phwar's blog.

Ye Htut could not be reached for comment but has reportedly denied allegations that he or the ministry is responsible for the blog.

"If I were Dr. Sate Phwar, the Union Parliament would not need to form an investigation commission. I would go and tell them, 'I am Dr. Sate Phwar and I wrote what I believe, and if you think I breached the laws then I am ready for a lawsuit,'" the deputy minister told The Myanmar Times newspaper in May, three months into the investigation.

The commission's report described Dr. Sate Phwar's blog post about Parliament as biased and said the writer "didn't have the sense of duty to claim responsibility for it."

"Although some evidence, including his writing style, revealed the identity of Dr. Sate Phwar, no-one came forward to identify himself as Dr. Sate Phwar while Parliament was investigating the case," the report said.

On Monday, the commission chairman said that determining the identity of the blogger was beyond the commission's capacity and they would seek technical assistance from Google to do so.

The Union Parliament speaker also accepted an apology posted on the blog and warned the blogger not to continue writing biased, defamatory posts.

"Anyone found guilty of committing that kind of crime can be charged with the 2004 Electronic Transactions Law and defamation under Article 500 of the Penal Code," Thein Nyunt, a lawmaker and lawyer, told The Irrawaddy.

The Electronic Transactions Law, which was promulgated by the former military regime, allows for up to 15 years in prison for Internet users who receive, send or distribute any information which threatens or disturbs state security, law and order, community peace, national solidarity, the national economy or national culture.

Parliament’s Priorities Versus the People’s

Posted: 04 Jul 2013 12:11 AM PDT

Parliament's Priorities Versus the People's

Economic Boom Spreads Wealth Wider in Philippines

Posted: 03 Jul 2013 11:35 PM PDT

Filipino job seekers attend a job fair in Manila on June 12, 2013. (Photo: Reuters / Romeo Ranoco)

Filipino job seekers attend a job fair in Manila on June 12, 2013. (Photo: Reuters / Romeo Ranoco)

MANILA — Just three years ago, a new car and an overseas holiday were unthinkable luxuries for J. Ante and her family of six. The insurance company manager's commissions have soared since then as the Philippines, blighted for a generation by venal and incompetent leaders, has unexpectedly boomed, putting middle-class comforts within tantalizing reach of many.

The $250 billion economy surged 7.8 percent in the first quarter of this year, outpacing China, and a middle class stunted by widespread poverty, political strife and corruption is beginning to share in a prosperity captured for decades by a clannish business and political elite.

The growing affluence and a burgeoning population have lured many global brands. Students and office workers flock to gleaming outlets opened by Zara, Gap, Forever 21, Starbucks and Japan's Uniqlo. New apartment blocks are springing up on almost every corner of metropolitan Manila and other cities, often clustered around malls and office buildings housing outsourcing businesses such as call centers, which are forecast to earn around $25 billion by 2016.

Luxury car maker Rolls Royce said it was flooded with inquiries since it opened its first dealership in Manila two weeks ago. The first car selling for $605,000 went to a popular TV show host, according to newspaper reports.

"Last year and this year have been a big leap in terms of my total income," Ante said. "Times have become better for our family."

She said three years ago it was difficult to come up with the school fees for her four children. Travel abroad or a new car were impossible, but "they seem more realistic now since my income is growing at a faster rate," she said. The family holidayed in Hong Kong this year and a vacation in the United States and Canada is planned. They hope to afford a family-friendly Toyota Innova this year.

Many credit the new vitality to the policies of President Benigno Aquino III, elected in 2010 on promises of eradicating graft and fighting poverty. He introduced new taxes, reformed the judiciary, and set the country on a path that shows sign of enduring—it has now enjoyed three straight quarters of economic growth above 7 percent. Standard and Poor's and Fitch Ratings earlier this year upgraded the Philippines' credit rating to investment grade for the first time.

"Disposable income has increased and we see a rising middle class," said Jose E.B. Antonio, chairman of Century Properties Group that brought in Donald Trump's sons and Paris Hilton to launch luxury condos in Manila.

Sheila Abay, a real estate agent for the past 10 years, said competition in her industry has become stiffer but she still sells more condominiums these days compared to five or 10 years ago.

The bulk of her clients are Filipinos working abroad, who buy property for retirement or investment. Over the last few years, however, she said she has seen a growing number of younger clients mostly aged 25 to 35. Many of them are midlevel managers at outsourcing companies who receive good pay for doing backroom operations for overseas companies.

"Their buying power is bigger," she said.

It adds up to dramatic shift for a country that has perennially lagged most of its Southeast Asian neighbors despite perceived advantages of a relatively free media, democratic elections and widespread use of English—the language of global business.

The Philippines is only sixth among 10 Southeast Asian countries in terms of GDP per head. Compared with Indonesia, which attracted nearly $20 billion in foreign investment last year, the Philippines managed only $2.8 billion, not far from $2.2 billion for Burma, a pariah state until recently. Thailand wooed more than 22 million visitors last year, the Philippines received 4.3 million.

Doubts still linger whether the country can stay on its new course.

President Aquino, in the mold of his late parents—democracy icon and former President Corazon Aquino and anti-dictatorship champion Benigno Aquino Jr.—won the presidency on a reformist platform following two corruption-tainted predecessors. His term ends in 2016.

But in a country where powerful families dominate politics and "name recall" ensures votes even for corrupt or incompetent leaders, another wrong turn can reverse recent gains.

There is a still a long way to go before the 28 percent of the population who live below the poverty line feel they too are benefiting from the boom that has dotted Manila with cranes and propelled the local stock market to new heights.

Elizabeth Yap, a 51-year-old single woman with close-cropped hair, scrapes a living by pedaling her tricycle around Manila to ferry passengers. She makes 400 to 500 pesos ($9 to $11) on good days, when she does not run afoul of law enforcers on their on-and-off campaign to clear the capital's traffic-choked streets.

"How can we feel the progress in the Philippines when we are poor," Yap said. "We can see the nice buildings, but for us poor, we can see that we are still poor."

Antonio, the property developer, believes it's only a matter of time before prosperity trickles down. He called for more focus on building infrastructure—roads, airports, hotels, restaurants—to support the tourism industry, which he said is a key to providing jobs for drivers, farmers, cooks and other lower income groups.

Despite the strong economic growth, joblessness soared to 7.5 percent in April, up from 6.9 percent a year earlier. Another 19.2 percent were "underemployed," or part-time workers.

Aquino blamed the increase in joblessness to delays in the planting season due to poor weather, leaving farm workers temporarily out of work during the survey period.

The government has intervened through a program that gives cash directly to the poorest families on condition children stay in school and see a doctor. The program will continue in the remaining three years of Aquino's administration, along with building mass housing and creating durable jobs in manufacturing, tourism and agriculture, Aquino said.

"We cannot have a society where a few flourish, and the rest must make do with crumbs," he told a recent development conference. "We must have inclusive growth."

Indonesia Searches for Victims as Quake Kills 29

Posted: 03 Jul 2013 11:21 PM PDT

Residents walk on a collapsed mosque in Blang Mancung village after a 6.2 magnitude earthquake hit west Indonesia's Aceh province on Wednesday. (Photo: Reuters)

Residents walk on a collapsed mosque in Blang Mancung village after a 6.2 magnitude earthquake hit west Indonesia's Aceh province on Wednesday. (Photo: Reuters)

BANDA ACEH, Indonesia — Soldiers, police and volunteers fanned out across an earthquake-damaged region of western Indonesia on Wednesday, scouring the debris of fallen homes and landslides for possible victims of a temblor that killed at least 29 people and injured hundreds.

The magnitude-6.1 quake struck Tuesday afternoon at a depth of just 10 kilometers (6 miles) and was centered on the far western tip of Sumatra island in Aceh province.

Twelve people were killed and 70 others were injured by a landslide or collapsing buildings in Bener Meriah district, said Sutopo Purwo Nugroho of the National Disaster Mitigation Agency.

Fauzi, head of the local mitigation agency, said about 600 houses and building were damaged in the district, where many residents were still staying in tents outside their homes.

"What we need right now are tents, since many people prefer to stay outside," said Fauzi, who like many Indonesians uses a single name. "They all are afraid of aftershocks."

In neighboring Central Aceh district, 17 people were killed and about 350 were injured, said Subhan Sahara, head of the local mitigation agency.

Nugroho said about 1,500 houses and buildings were damaged by the quake, which also triggered landslides and caused hundreds of people to be evacuated to 10 temporary shelters.

Rescuers and other assistance teams arrived in Bener Meriah, while the air force dispatched aircraft to the region, Nugroho said.

"We are now concentrating on searching for people who may be trapped under the rubble," said Rusli M. Saleh, the deputy district chief of Bener Meriah.

He said at least 25 of the injured in his district were hospitalized in intensive care.

Indonesia is prone to seismic upheaval due to its location on the Pacific Ring of Fire, an arc of volcanoes and fault lines encircling the Pacific Ocean.

In 2004, a magnitude-9.1 earthquake off Aceh triggered a tsunami that killed 230,000 people in 14 countries.

Pressure Grows for US to Cut Aid to Cambodia

Posted: 03 Jul 2013 11:15 PM PDT

US President Barack Obama watches on as Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen toasts with then Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard at an East Asia Summit dinner in Phnom Penh on Nov. 19, 2012. (Photo: Reuters / Jason Reed)

US President Barack Obama watches on as Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen toasts with then Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard at an East Asia Summit dinner in Phnom Penh on Nov. 19, 2012. (Photo: Reuters / Jason Reed)

WASHINGTON — Human rights activists and US lawmakers are pushing for a cut in the more than $70 million in annual American aid to Cambodia if its Prime Minister Hun Sen extends his 28-year rule in unfair elections this month.

Whether one of Asia's longest-serving and most ruthless leaders cares much is another matter.

His political strength has only grown since the last election in 2008, and support from a more generous benefactor, China, has grown. That's fueling fears Hun Sen—no stranger to criticism from Western donors—will ignore calls to ensure the upcoming vote is conducted properly.

The Obama administration has deepened ties with nations across Southeast Asia. It has encouraged the oppressive military regime in nearby Burma to open up, but relations with Cambodia have worsened in recent months. During the first visit by a US president there in November, Barack Obama devoted his entire meeting with Hun Sen to human rights and democracy.

It hasn't had the desired effect.

In the run-up to the July 28 elections, opposition lawmakers were expelled from parliament for merging parties to contest the vote. Their exiled leader, Sam Rainsy, has been excluded from the election because of his criminal conviction on charges that are widely regarded as being politically motivated.

The State Department has said the exclusion of Rainsy calls into question the legitimacy of Cambodia's democratic process. There are also doubts over the neutrality of the election commission and the composition of voter rolls.

Lawmakers from both houses of the US Congress are introducing resolutions seeking to reduce aid, particularly direct assistance to the government, if the State Department does not judge the election to "credible and competitive."

The resolutions also call for Washington to urge international financial institutions that pour hundreds of millions into Cambodian development, such as the Asian Development Bank, to do the same. The Senate resolution is co-sponsored by influential Republicans Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham, who sits on a powerful appropriations committee that oversees government spending.

Cambodian government spokesmen declined to comment about that prospect. Ruling party lawmaker Chheang Vun told The Associated Press he had no idea what aid the United States gives, "but they did help a lot the opposition party."

Washington denies taking sides, although Rainsy has taken heart from what he sees as a hardening in the US position.

"The US administration has sent the right message to the Cambodian government, that it won't be business as usual for Mr. Hun Sen if the next election is not seen to be acceptable. Then Hun Sen will face condemnation and isolation," he told the AP by phone from his exile in Paris.

But it's not yet clear what action the Obama administration is prepared to take.

Secretary of State John Kerry is preoccupied with the turbulent Middle East—feeding perceptions that the Obama administration's "pivot" to Asia is losing steam. With key assistant secretary positions still open, there's uncertainty about who is running policy toward that region.

Kerry has a long association with Cambodia and Hun Sen. Frank Jannuzi, a former Kerry aide and now with Amnesty International USA, said his former boss ought to call in a favor or two.

During his tenure on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Kerry helped persuade Hun Sen to agree to a UN-backed tribunal to try former Khmer Rouge leaders, and also supported US-Cambodia trade—now worth nearly $3 billion a year. He pushed security cooperation on the search for the remains of American servicemen missing from the Vietnam War and the training of a counter-terrorism unit commanded by Hun Sen's son, who went on to graduate from the US Military Academy.

"Kerry has a personal touch with Hun Sen," Jannuzi said. "He ought to use it."

US officials are considering reducing aid, among possible options, though there are differences of opinion over how effective that would be.

Much of the current US aid to Cambodia is for fighting diseases like malaria and HIV/AIDS that afflict the nation's poorest, or for supporting nongovernmental groups that are probably the most effective check on government abuses, such as land confiscations that have dispossessed tens of thousands of Cambodians.

Concerns over confiscations prompted the World Bank to suspend lending two years ago, yet in large part, Hun Sen has managed to keep international assistance flowing.

In the past decade, Hun Sen has overseen modest economic growth and stability in a country plagued by desperate poverty and nearly destroyed by the genocidal Khmer Rouge rule in the 1970s. And he can look to China for more support. Its loans and grants to Cambodia over the past two decades have totaled about $2.7 billion—compared with $1.2 billion in assistance from the United States over that period. Offshore oil and gas reserves are expected to provide more domestic revenue in coming years.

"What outsiders say about his tactics is of little or no concern to Hun Sen," said historian David Chandler, a Cambodia expert at Australia's Monash University. "He knows that there's not much besides scolding that outside nations are willing or able to do."

After Hun Sen toppled his co-prime minister in a 1997 coup and consolidated his dominance, Congress did put restrictions on US aid for a decade. But relations have since expanded, including the start of military contacts in 2006, although that assistance is less than $1 million a year.

John Sifton, Asia advocacy director for Human Rights Watch, who will testify at a congressional hearing Tuesday on Cambodia, expressed confidence the United States will cut some aid after the election and said that would be a blow to Hun Sen.

"It's about legitimacy, not money," Sifton said.

Associated Press writer Sopheng Cheang in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, contributed to this report.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.