The Irrawaddy Magazine

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• LGBT Groups Call for Burma’s Penal Code to Be Amended
• The Mobile Peace Prize
• Photo of the week 008
• The Political Prisoners Were Guilty: Khin Nyunt
• Burma Expert Doubtful That Current Talks Will Bring Peace
• Primped, Pruned and Peaceful in the Heart of Rangoon
• Rapid Plantation Expansion Fuels Deforestation in Ethnic Regions
• In Vietnam, Weary Apparatchiks Launch Quiet Revolution
• Protesters Target Thai PM’s Party, Govt Seeks to Avoid Violent Confrontation
• China Sends Warplanes Into Air Defense Zone

LGBT Groups Call for Burma’s Penal Code to Be Amended Posted: 29 Nov 2013 04:17 AM PST A campaign poster from the Human Rights Education Institute of Burma says, "Same-sex relationships are not a disease. Hating same-sex relationships is a disease." (Photo: HREIB) RANGOON — A lesbian, bisexual, gay and transgender (LGBT) rights group is calling for the Burma government to abolish an article in its 19th century penal code that outlaws same-sex relationships, activists said. The penal code, which was first brought in under British colonial rule, still includes Article 377, under which "intercourse against the order of nature" carries a prison sentence of up to 10 years. The article is used to punish same-sex couples and effectively rules out same-sex couples living openly in Burma. The Rangoon-based LBGT Rights Network—an alliance of 19 civil society organizations—said it is going to lobby the government to scrap the article, which it says is discriminatory. "We do not have equal rights here. We need it," said Tin Ko Ko, a member of the LGBT Rights Network. Aung Myo Min, an activist from the Human Rights Education Institute of Burma (HREIB), argued that sex between two people was not unnatural, and rejected gay sex being grouped with acts like people having sex with animals. "All people have their own rights. They have right to get married to whoever they want," he said. "Men can marry men, women can marry women. This is their private right." Research by HREIB, published in January, found that LGBT people living in Burma are regularly victimized by authorities or discriminated against by officials or other members of the public. Following a police crackdown on LGBT people in Mandalay in July, some of the 12 detained alleged that they were subjected to humiliating sexual abuse at the police station. Although the law in Burma does not allow people to marry others of the same sex, a man and a transgender woman in Moulmein, Mon State, held a marriage ceremony on Nov. 18, according to a report in the Burmese-language Myanmar Post this week. But the act drew harsh criticism and threats in the local community and even from authorities. A statement issued by the LGBT Rights Network last week condemned police in Moulmein for infringing on the couple's rights, pointing to Article 347 of Burma 2008 Constitution, which guarantees that all citizens' security is protected. Parliamentarian Thein Nyunt, from the New National Democracy Party, said same-sex marriage was not acceptable to Burmese culture. "To talk about human rights, it's OK to have these rights. But, for me, I do not support having same-sex marriage, because it is not suitable of our Burmese culture." Despite the threat of the law, and conservative attitudes among many in Burma, the gay community has started edging toward visibility since Burma began opening up after political and economic reforms beginning two years ago. In 2011, the previously Thailand-based TV show, "Colours Rainbow TV"—which airs once a month online and focuses on LGBT issues—moved its production to Rangoon. The post LGBT Groups Call for Burma's Penal Code to Be Amended appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

The Mobile Peace Prize Posted: 29 Nov 2013 04:07 AM PST The Mobile Peace Prize The post The Mobile Peace Prize appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Photo of the week 008 Posted: 29 Nov 2013 03:59 AM PST a The post Photo of the week 008 appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

The Political Prisoners Were Guilty: Khin Nyunt Posted: 29 Nov 2013 03:47 AM PST Khin Nyunt, the former chief of Burma's military intelligence unit, speaks during a book launch in Rangoon on Thursday. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — The ex-chief of Burma's feared military intelligence unit says political activists imprisoned under the former military regime were criminals who broke laws. Speaking at an event in Rangoon on Thursday, Khin Nyunt rejected claims by former political prisoners that they had been arbitrarily detained. "They are looking out for their own interests by saying they were imprisoned without reason. … Of course they broke the law, and they are guilty," he said. In addition to leading Burma's powerful spy apparatus under military rule, Khin Nyunt was appointed as prime minister in 2003. He was purged from the government one year later, allegedly at the request of then-junta chief Than Shwe, and sentenced to 44 years in prison for corruption and insubordination. He served eight years under house arrest before being released in an amnesty for political prisoners in 2012, after a quasi-civilian government took power in 2011. "Even I had to face 44 years of imprisonment because the government thought I was breaking the law," he said. "I had to follow their decision. Determining whether a person is guilty depends on the rules and regulations of the government at the time. If the government assumes you broke the law and sues you, then you are guilty. There's no reason to argue about this." The statements on Thursday came during a book launch event, in response to questions by reporters. The book by local journalist Myat Khine is a compilation of exclusive interviews with the former spy chief. Khin Nyunt is said to have been among the key government players in a military crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in 1988, leading to the deaths of thousands of people. Members of his military intelligence unit were accused of torturing and jailing activists from across the country. Hundreds of political prisoners have been released since 2012, and President Thein Sein's administration has pledged to free the rest before the end of this year. The most recent amnesty of 69 prisoners earlier this month nearly cut in half the number of political prisoners who were believed to be behind bars according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), a Bangkok-based activist group. Emboldened by recent reforms, former political prisoners have publicly blamed the military intelligence unit for arbitrary detention and torture. Calls for an apology have come from veteran politician and journalist Win Tin, co-founder of the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD). In an interview last month, Win Tin told The Irrawaddy that he believed junta leaders should apologize for the deaths of those who were killed in the 1988 crackdown, and for the mistreatment of detainees in prisons. On Thursday, when asked by The Irrawaddy to comment on these demands, Khin Nyunt responded with a question of his own. "To whom should I apologize?" he said, refusing further comment. Min Zayar, an activist from the 88 Generation Students group and a former political prisoner, called on government leaders to take responsibility for rights abuses. "An apology must be made to all citizens," he said. "Of course they would say we were guilty—we were always against the junta. But he [Khin Nyunt] and the military leaders must know that our freedom of expression and right to protest was barred terribly under their rule. "We were tortured physically and mentally during interrogations and in prison. Our families also suffered. Everyone was afraid of those generals and their people. Demanding an apology and an admission of wrongdoing does not mean we want revenge, but we want them to learn from the past so they do not walk the same path in the present or future." Ye Aung, a member of the Rangoon-based Former Political Prisoners (FPP) group, an NGO offering assistance to released prisoners, said he doubted the government would free all political prisoners. Despite reform, he said, activists calling for basic rights for farmers and laborers were continuing to face detention, trials and prison sentences. "There will always be political prisoners because they have not given us freedom of expression," he said. "Khin Nyunt keeps boasting that there is more transparency than before, but we can clearly see from this recent book of his interviews and from statements by other generals that there is still a lack of transparency—they dare not speak openly yet. They are always trying to cover up the past." The post The Political Prisoners Were Guilty: Khin Nyunt appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Burma Expert Doubtful That Current Talks Will Bring Peace Posted: 29 Nov 2013 02:39 AM PST Veteran journalist BertilLintner on a visit to The Irrawaddy's office in Rangoon on Nov. 28. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — Despite President Thein Sein's government pushing for a nationwide ceasefire agreement, peace negotiators from Naypyidaw and the leaders of Burma's ethnic armed groups have "incompatible" demands going into further talks, according to a Burma specialist who has studied the country's ethnic conflicts. The latest round of negotiations between rebel leaders and the government is scheduled for next month in the Karen State capital of Pa-an, but the expected date of a nationwide ceasefire deal has already been repeatedly put back. During a visit to The Irrawaddy's office in Rangoon on Thursday, Swedish journalist Bertil Lintner said that despite high-profile political and economic reforms since the nominally civilian government took power in 2011, the ethnic conflict was "still the most important issue for the future [of Burma], as I see it." "Since independence in 1948, the most important issue that has been tearing this country apart has been the question of national identity and ethnicity. The longest lasting civil war in world history has been fought in this country," said Lintner, who first visited Burma in 1977. The veteran journalist, who lives in Chiang Mai, Thailand, has published many books and articles on Burma and the region, the majority focusing on Burma and its armed rebels. Among numerous forays into rebel-held territory inside Burma, Lintner spent almost two years in the 1980s in areas under the control of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the now-defunct Communist Party of Burma. Fighting between the Burma Army and the KIA broke out in 2011 after a 17-year ceasefire. Earlier this month, the government army was continuing to launch operations that displaced thousands of civilians in Kachin's Bhamo Township just as the latest ceasefire talks were getting underway in the state capital of Myitkyina. At the talks, which concluded on Nov. 5, the government and the majority of ethnic groups exchanged their respective draft proposals for what a ceasefire agreement might look like. "Right now, you have what people call a peace process. I don't really quite see it as a process that can lead to peace," said Lintner. "The only positive thing that's come out so far is both sides have put their papers on the table—and you can see that they are incompatible." Most major ethnic armed groups in Burma have already negotiated individual ceasefire agreements, but ahead of the planned nationwide ceasefire conference they are generally united in demanding a federal Burma, an army that includes all its constituent groups, and recognition of the 1947 Panglong Agreement, which set out a recipe for autonomy of ethnic groups within aunited Burma. "Of course the military cannot accept this," said Lintner. "Their idea about the future of this country is entirely different. They want the non-[Burman] ethnic groups to accept the 2008 Constitution, to obey laws imposed by the state, and not to be a burden on the local people—which means no recruitment or tax collection.  And that is, of course, unacceptable for the other side. "I cannot see how these two sides can meet unless they find some kind of common ground. And, so far, I cannot see any common ground at all." The ethnic armed groups want a federal army that brings together all of Burma's ethnic groups—a key sticking point in negotiations. Beginning in 2009, the government attempted to incorporate ethnic armies into the state, through the so-called Border Guard Force. The move backfired as most of the strongest groups refused to sign up, and fighting broke out again in a number of areas that had seen years of peace. Lintner said the government's approach was "the wrong idea because, in a federalist structure, border security is a federal issue, not a state issue. You cannot have local armies controlling borders. That will end in chaos and smuggling and all sorts of things." However, he also said the rebel demand for a "federal army" was unrealistic. Instead, he proposed a system similar to India, where states have a locally controlled armed police force and borders are controlled by central government. "So if you take Kachin, for instance, the KIA theoretically could become the Kachin State armed police, controlled by the Kachin State government and answerable to the Kachin State government," he said. "They would be responsible for protecting the people in Kachin State. Whereas, border security would be controlled by Naypyidaw." As the government has attempted to bring armed groups on its side, it has awarded controversial car import licenses to some ethnic leaders, raising fears that personally lucrative deals may be reached at the top level that do not benefit the majority of people in Burma's frontier areas. Lintner warned that such "selling out" by ethnic leaders would be dangerous. "It would cause a lot of resentment among the ordinary people," he said. "There would be a backlash, which would make the situation even more complicated." The post Burma Expert Doubtful That Current Talks Will Bring Peace appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Primped, Pruned and Peaceful in the Heart of Rangoon Posted: 29 Nov 2013 01:33 AM PST The newest addition to the park is a modern playground for children. (Photo: Steve Ticker / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — Maha Bandoola Garden in downtown Rangoon sits opposite the well-known Sule Pagoda and has recently been renovated to provide a tranquil, shady oasis for visitors during the upcoming Southeast Asian Games, which Burma will host in December for the first time in 44 years. Since its re-opening last month, the park has already become a popular venue for local residents to escape the commercial capital's growing hustle and bustle. Its dominant centerpiece is a 150-feet-tall obelisk commemorating independence from British rule in 1948. The obelisk replaced a large statue of Queen Victoria that took pride of place when the park was known as Fytche Square and the country was ruled by Britain. The garden itself is named after Gen Maha Bandoola, who led Burma against the British in the First Anglo-Burmese War. The obelisk is surrounded by eight statues of mythical lion creatures known as "chinthe." These creatures also appear on the local currency and are a familiar figure in Burmese culture, frequently seen guarding the gates and entrances to the nation's pagodas and temples. Since the renovation, the space now features wide, well-manicured lawns and gardens, and a modern children's playground. The post Primped, Pruned and Peaceful in the Heart of Rangoon appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Rapid Plantation Expansion Fuels Deforestation in Ethnic Regions Posted: 29 Nov 2013 12:10 AM PST Piles of logged trees await transport at a lumber yard in Thandwe, Arakan State. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — Plantation farming is expanding rapidly in Burma and is emerging as the main driver of deforestation, according to a new report released on Thursday. It said that politically connected businessmen are receiving government licenses to log swathes of natural forest in ethnic minority regions, ostensibly to plant rubber and oil palm. The report by US-based research center Forest Trends highlighted problems with plantation expansion and other forms of logging, and raised concerns over the legality, environmental sustainability and land rights impacts of Burma's current timber extraction policy. The group warned Western nations not to resume timber imports from Burma until the government has addressed these issues. Forest Trends found that by mid-2013, the government had given firms a total of 2.1 million hectares (5.2 million acres) in plantation concessions, up from 1.3 million hectares and 0.9 million hectares in 2012 and 2011, respectively. More than 60 percent of the concessions were granted in Kachin State and Tenasserim Division, two of the country's most densely forested regions. Many of the concessions are allocated in natural forests and allow firms to log and sell old-growth trees in order to clear the area for rubber or oil palm plantations. Although exact government data on this type of forest loss is unavailable, researchers believe that plantation expansion "is likely the largest single source of timber in [Burma], especially for non-teak high value timber." After clearing the forest, many firms fail to actually plant their concessions and almost two-thirds of the areas remain fallow, according to the report. Big companies—such as Tay Za's Htoo Trading, Htay Myint's Yuzana Company, Zaw Zaw's Max Myanmar, Win Aung's Dagon Company and Steven Law's Asia World—are being granted plantation concessions "predominately in resource-rich ethnic conflict areas," the report said, adding that this policy was "part of the government's attempt at gaining greater state territorial control and access to natural resources." In southern Burma's Tenasserim Division, more than 10 well-connected companies received large oil palm concessions "in an area that holds the Mekong region's last large expanse of lowland Dipterocarp rainforest," the report said. "The result so far has been more logging than actual planting of palm oil seedlings." The expansion of Burma's rubber and oil plantations is part of a wider regional trend, largely aimed at supplying China's growing industries, that has threatened forests and community land rights across Southeast Asia. Other major sources of timber in Burma are the state-managed teak forests in the central region and the logging and harvesting of old-growth forest in ethnic conflict areas, according to Forest Trends. The latter logging concessions are allocated in forests under control of the government or armed ethnic rebel groups and "involve Burmese military and state officials and local ethnic leaders," Forest Trends said, while large "crony" companies are also increasingly granted such concessions. Armed rebel groups, the report added, were taxing much of the timber trade through their areas of control. Forest Trends said there is little government oversight on the ground to ensure that timber extraction is legal, conducted in an environmentally sustainable way and without impacting local communities' livelihoods and land rights. The state-owned Myanmar Timber Enterprise, which regulates Burma's timber trade, does little to track how private firms extract timber, the report said, adding that it provides permits to most firms as long as they export timber through Rangoon Port. Burma's neighbors India, China and Thailand are the biggest buyers of its timber, which was estimated to total 2.6 billion cubic meters in 2012, worth US$1.2 billion, according to customs data of importing countries that was aggregated by Forest Trends. A significant share of the wood is also transported overland to these countries, according to the foreign customs data, even though this is illegal under Burmese law, which requires that all timber is exported through Rangoon Port. The illicit overland transport of timber from conflict-torn Kachin State to southern China is particularly large, with an estimated value of $225 million in 2012, according estimates by Forest Trends. A researcher from the group visited the Chinese border town of Nangdao in April 2013 and "witnessed hundreds of Chinese timber trucks crossing the Burma border with very large old-growth hardwood logs from Burma." It remains unclear how much public revenue the government collects from timber exports. Ministry of Commerce data indicate that in 2011-12, Burma exported $283 million worth of teak logs and $282 million worth of hardwood logs, making timber the third biggest export product that year after natural gas and jade. Burma is historically one of Asia's biggest timber producers and was renowned for its teak forests in central Burma and densely forested border regions. During the country's long-running ethnic conflicts, both government and ethnic rebels heavily logged the forests, yet Burma remains one of Asia's most forested countries. Forest Trends said the lack of government oversight on how timber is sourced, lax export regulations and the extraction of timber in ethnic conflict areas should be a concern for the European Union and the United States, both of which are keen to resume Burmese timber imports after years of international sanctions that targeted the former military regime. "The first step to tackle this paramount issue on the future for [Burma]'s forestry sector is for the government, private sector, and donor community to frankly discuss the complexity of the verification of legal origin" of timber, the report said. Burma's government has expressed interest in reforming its timber supply chain and it held a dialogue in July with the European Union on the joint implementation of a Forest Law Enforcement Governance and Trade (FLEGT) action plan, according to the EU Office in Burma. "The government is consulting internally on the next steps to take," an EU spokesman told The Irrawaddy in a recent statement. The voluntary FLEGT plan, which could take several years to implement, would help Burma verify the legality and sustainability of its timber products—a key requirement for gaining access to highly regulated EU and US markets. In an effort to reduce deforestation and the outflow of unprocessed timber, Naypyidaw announced earlier this year that it will ban the export of raw logs by April 2014, after which only sawn wood is allowed to be exported. Burma is one of the few countries in the world that still allows for the export of unprocessed logs, and raw timber makes up the majority of its exports. Forest Trends said consequently Burma had failed to build up a wood-processing industry that could add value to the vast quantity of timber that the country produces. "[M]any are wondering how the domestic industry will be able to respond to demands for even rudimentarily processed sawn logs" after the April 2014 log export ban comes into effect, the report said. The post Rapid Plantation Expansion Fuels Deforestation in Ethnic Regions appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

In Vietnam, Weary Apparatchiks Launch Quiet Revolution Posted: 28 Nov 2013 10:26 PM PST Vietnam's National Assembly's deputies press voting buttons to pass the new constitution during a meeting in Hanoi on Nov. 28, 2013. (Photo: Reuters) HANOI — The Vietnam of today wasn't what Le Hieu Dang had hoped for when he joined the Communist Party 40 years ago to liberate and rebuild a country reeling from decades of war and French and US occupation. The socialist system of the late revolutionary Ho Chi Minh has been corrupted, he says, by a shift to a market economy tightly controlled by one political party that has given rise to a culture of graft and vested interests. "I fought in the war for a better society, a fair life for people. But after the war, the country has worsened, the workers are poor, the farmers have lost their land," Dang told Reuters. "It's unacceptable. We have a political monopoly and a dictatorship running this country." Opinions like this might be normal in many countries. But in Vietnam, where politics is taboo, free speech is stifled and the image of unity in the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) sacrosanct, analysts say the significance of comrades speaking out publicly cannot be understated. The CPV-dominated National Assembly on Thursday approved amendments to a 1992 constitution that, despite a public consultation campaign, entrench the party's grip on power at a time when discontent simmers over its handling of land disputes, corruption and an economy suffocated by toxic debt amassed by state-run firms. Dang is vehemently against the amendments, and not alone in his views, which are of the kind that have landed dozens of people in jail as part of a crackdown that's intensified as dissent has risen and Internet usage soared to a third of the 90 million population. Draconian cyber laws were tightened further on Wednesday, when the government announced a 100 million dong (US$4,740) fine for anyone who criticizes it on social media. But what has jolted the party is that the loudest voices calling for a more pluralist system are coming not from the general public, but from within its own ranks, an open act of mutiny not seen since the CPV took power of a reunified Vietnam in 1975, after the communists' triumph over US forces. "Vietnam has entered a new phase. The existence of rivalries within the party is already known, but it's now more transparent in a way never seen in the past," said Jonathan London, a Vietnam expert at City University in Hong Kong. "The rise of this group and its advice will influence the tenor of party discussion. What's clear is this is a period of uncertainty and competition." Crisis and Deadlock This year, Dang and 71 others, among them intellectuals, bloggers and current and former CPV apparatchiks, drafted their own version of the constitution, in response to a routine public feedback campaign ostensibly aimed at placating people and boosting the party's dwindling legitimacy. Their draft was posted online and 15,000 people signed an accompanying petition calling for the scrapping of Article 4, which enshrines the CPV's political monopoly. But lawmakers did the opposite and redrafted the article to expand the CPV's leadership role and the military's duty to protect it. In a summary of 26 million public opinions on the draft, a commission of the National Assembly said the majority of Vietnamese supported one-party rule. "Theoretically, democracy is not synonymous with pluralism," the commission said in a report in May. "No one can affirm that multiple political parties are better than one party." On Thursday, not a single lawmaker rejected the new draft, which expanded Article 4 to state the party is "the vanguard of the Vietnamese workers, people and nation." A draft of the amendments, published weeks ago, outraged opponents. The initial 72 democracy advocates were joined by others and 165 of them, including retired government officials, published a statement on the Internet two weeks ago warning lawmakers to reject the amendments. They said if National Assembly members passed the amendments, they would be complicit in a "crime against the country and its people" and would "only push the country deeper into crisis and deadlock." Many of the party's open critics took part in the wars to liberate Vietnam from Western powers in the 1950s, '60s and '70s and have become new revolutionaries of sorts, confronting issues that most Vietnamese are afraid to discuss. Nguyen Quang A was once part of an advisory think-tank which disbanded itself after the government introduced laws that limited the scope of its work five years ago. It included former CPV members, diplomats, businessmen and academics. But they stay in touch at monthly meetings to debate social, economic and political issues, some of which they address in commentaries posted online. "We want to create an environment to facilitate the emergence of other political forces and put forward a process to transition from dictatorship to democracy," he told Reuters. "We hope some of our members can play a bridging role to make the party listen to us. It takes time, but we have to pressure them to change and convince people not to be afraid." Dang and his CPV allies are going a step further. They plan to remain in the party so they can drum up support from disenchanted members to set up an opposition party to scrutinize the CPV's policies and keep it in check. Despite their fierce rhetoric, they insist the plan to set up the Social Democratic Party is not an attempt to overthrow the ruling party but an attempt to create a more liberal coexistence between parties that would benefit the country. Ho Ngoc Nhuan, vice chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City branch of the Fatherland Front, the CPV's umbrella group that manages big organizations under Marxist-Leninist principles, said the feedback campaign and constitution amendments were a "tragic comedy" that showed the party was out of touch with the people. It was time, he said, to shake up Vietnamese politics. "We face many problems in Vietnam, big crises, so how can we solve it with one all-powerful party? We have to get their attention, so we're calling comrades in the party to join us so we can break this chain," Nhuan said, admitting that it was proving difficult to convince them. "The new generation can't explain socialism to us anymore. They're called the Communist Party, but they no longer believe in their own ideology." The post In Vietnam, Weary Apparatchiks Launch Quiet Revolution appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Protesters Target Thai PM’s Party, Govt Seeks to Avoid Violent Confrontation Posted: 28 Nov 2013 09:25 PM PST Thailand's Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra speaks during a news conference at the Government House in Bangkok on Nov. 28, 2013. (Photo: Reuters / Chaiwat Subprasom) BANGKOK — Anti-government demonstrators plan to march toward the headquarters of Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's ruling party on Friday, forging ahead with a campaign to overthrow her after rejecting her call for dialogue. Yingluck breezed through a parliamentary no-confidence vote on Thursday but that failed to pacify protesters who accuse her of abusing her party's majority to push through laws that strengthen the behind-the-scenes power of self-exiled brother and former premier, Thaksin Shinawatra. Though the number of protesters appear to be dwindling since the start of the week, a hard-core remain determined to target symbols of the "Thaksin regime" to weaken a leader they call a puppet, and government they say has lost its mandate to rule. The protest leader, Suthep Thaugsuban, a deputy prime minister in the previous government, rejected Yingluck's televised plea for talks. Yingluck has ruled out resigning or dissolving parliament. As the rallies drag on, questions are being raised about what lies ahead in a conflict that broadly pits urban middle classes against the mostly rural supporters of Thaksin, a divisive tycoon ousted in a 2006 military coup and central to Thailand's eight years of on-off turmoil. Before thousands of supporters occupying a state office complex in a Bangkok suburb, Suthep vowed firm action, but was unwilling to say what that would be. "The end game will happen in the next day or two. All will be revealed tomorrow night," he said late on Thursday. His rhetoric may not rattle a government asserting its legitimacy and intent on riding out the storm. As tensions mount, it has urged police and its supporters to avoid confronting demonstrators it says are running out of steam. "The government will not instigate a violent situation because that is exactly what Suthep wants," said Udomdet Rattanasatein, a lawmaker from Yingluck's Puea Thai party. "We will not be provoked." Yingluck had governed for two years without a major challenge until last month, when Puea Thai tried to ram through an amnesty bill that would have expunged Thaksin's 2008 graft conviction and cleared the way for his political comeback. The Senate rejected it, Yingluck shelved it, but the protests escalated, switching overnight from anti-amnesty to anti-government. Thaksin's working-class support has ensured parties led by himself, his brother-in-law and now his sister have won a decade of elections, but none without overthrow attempts by extra-parliamentary groups who say he politicized and bought-off the poor with cheap credit, health care for a dollar and cash-hemorrhaging state subsidies. Among the key protagonists in Thailand's dysfunctional democracy are those who revile Thaksin's authoritarianism—conservative generals, aristocrats, big businessmen and royal advisors—whose accusations of graft and disloyalty to the monarchy have mobilized Bangkok's middle classes. Thaksin refutes their claims. The demonstrators have a presence at five locations in Bangkok, three in its historic heart, one in the city's northern fringe and another at the Finance Ministry they have occupied since Monday. The Civil Movement for Democracy, as the demonstrators are known, has garnered support from white collar workers and 45 unions with a combined 200,000 members. The union of Thai Airways International, 51 percent owned by the Finance Ministry, on Thursday threatened to go on strike and ground the flag carrier's entire fleet if any demonstrators were harmed. "If the government uses force … we will increase the pressure by stopping the plane wheels from turning," said the union's president, Damrong Waikanee The post Protesters Target Thai PM's Party, Govt Seeks to Avoid Violent Confrontation appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

China Sends Warplanes Into Air Defense Zone Posted: 28 Nov 2013 09:12 PM PST A helicopter of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force lifts off from the aircraft carrier USS George Washington during Annual Exercise 2013, at sea in this Nov. 27, 2013 handout provided by the US Navy. This was taken in the general vicinity, though not within, the new airspace defense zone which China newly established last week. (Photo: Reuters) BEIJING — China said it sent warplanes into its newly declared maritime air defense zone days after the United States, South Korea and Japan all sent flights through the airspace in defiance of rules Beijing says it has imposed in the East China Sea. China's air force on Thursday sent several fighter jets and an early warning aircraft on normal air patrols in the zone, the Xinhua agency reported, citing air force spokesman Shen Jinke. The report did not specify exactly when the flights were sent or whether they had encountered foreign aircraft. The United States, Japan and South Korea have said they have sent flights through the zone without encountering any Chinese response since Beijing announced the creation of the zone last week. Shen described Thursday's flights as "a defensive measure and in line with international common practices." He said China's air force would remain on high alert and will take measures to protect the country's airspace. While China's surprise announcement last week to create the zone initially raised some tensions in the region, analysts say Beijing's motive is not to trigger an aerial confrontation but is a more long-term strategy to solidify claims to disputed territory by simply marking the area as its own. China's lack of efforts to stop the foreign flights—including two US B-52s that flew through the zone on Tuesday—has been an embarrassment for Beijing. Even some Chinese state media outlets suggested Thursday that Beijing may have mishandled the episodes. "Beijing needs to reform its information release mechanism to win the psychological battles waged by Washington and Tokyo," the Global Times, a nationalist tabloid published by the Communist Party's flagship People's Daily, said in an editorial. Without prior notice, Beijing began demanding Saturday that passing aircraft identify themselves and accept Chinese instructions or face consequences in an East China Sea zone that overlaps a similar air defense identification zone overseen by Japan since 1969 and initially part of one set up by the US military. But when tested just days later by US B-52 flights—with Washington saying it made no effort to comply with China's rules, and would not do so in the future—Beijing merely noted, belatedly, that it had seen the flights and taken no further action. South Korea's military said Thursday its planes flew through the zone this week without informing China and with no apparent interference. Japan also said its planes have been continuing to fly through it after the Chinese announcement, while the Philippines, locked in an increasingly bitter dispute with Beijing over South China Sea islands, said it also was rejecting China's declaration. Analysts question China's technical ability to enforce the zone due to a shortage of early warning radar aircraft and in-flight refueling capability. However, many believe that China has a long-term plan to win recognition for the zone with a gradual ratcheting-up of warnings and possibly also eventual enforcement action. "With regard to activity within the zone, nothing will happen—for a while," said June Teufel Dreyer, a China expert at the University of Miami. "Then the zone will become gradually enforced more strictly. The Japanese will continue to protest, but not much more, to challenge it." That may wear down Japan and effectively change the status quo, she said. The zone is seen primarily as China's latest bid to bolster its claim over a string of uninhabited Japanese-controlled islands in the East China Sea—known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China. Beijing has been ratcheting up its sovereignty claims since Tokyo's nationalization of the islands last year. But the most immediate spark for the zone likely was Japan's threat last month to shoot down drones that China says it will send to the islands for mapping expeditions, said Dennis Blasko, an Asia analyst at think tank CNA's China Security Affairs Group and a former Army attaché in Beijing. The zone comes an awkward time. Although Beijing's ties with Tokyo are at rock bottom, it was building good will and mutual trust with Washington following a pair of successful meetings between President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, the zone feud now threatens to overshadow both the visit by Vice President Joe Biden to Beijing next week and one by Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop expected before the end of the year. China's defense and foreign ministries offered no additional clarification Thursday as to why Beijing failed to respond to the US Air Force flights. Alliance partners the US and Japan together have hundreds of military aircraft in the immediate vicinity. China on Saturday issued a list of requirements for all foreign aircraft passing through the area, regardless of whether they were headed into Chinese airspace, and said its armed forces would adopt "defensive emergency measures" against aircraft that don't comply. Beijing said the notifications are needed to help maintain air safety in the zone. However, the fact that China said it had identified and monitored the two US bombers during their Tuesday flight seems to discredit that justification for the zone, said Rory Medcalf, director of the international security program at Australia's Lowy Institute "This suggests the zone is principally a political move," Medcalf said. "It signals a kind of creeping extension of authority." Along with concerns about confrontations or accidents involving Chinese fighters and foreign aircraft, the zone's establishment fuels fears of further aggressive moves to assert China's territorial claims—especially in the hotly disputed South China Sea, which Beijing says belongs entirely to it. Defense Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun confirmed those concerns on Saturday by saying China would establish additional air defense identification zones "at an appropriate time." For now, however, China's regional strategy is focused mostly on Japan and the island dispute, according to government-backed Chinese scholars. China will continue piling the pressure on Tokyo until it reverses the decision to nationalize the islands, concedes they are in dispute, and opens up negotiations with Beijing, said Shen Dingli, a regional security expert and director of the Center for American Studies at Shanghai's Fudan University. "China has no choice but to take counter measures," Shen said. "If Japan continues to reject admitting the disputes, it's most likely that China will take further measures." The post China Sends Warplanes Into Air Defense Zone appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

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