The Irrawaddy Magazine

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• Jubilant Thai Protesters Hug Police But Old Enmities Remain
• Burma Lawyers See Greater Freedom, but Still Far to Go
• Burma’s SMEs Uneasy Ahead of Asean Trade Zone
• In Dawei, ITD Projects Suspended, Not Terminated: Minister
• Reforming Burma Moves Up Global Corruption Rankings
• Govt Denies Report of Helicopter Maker’s Rangoon Factory Plans
• Rangoon’s Ethnic Shan Celebrate New Year With Cultural Delights
• Burma Looks Abroad for Investment in Health Care
• China On The Moon
• ‘Use of Children Should Be a Violation of Any Ceasefire’
• Soups, Statues and Soothsayers in Demand as China Eases One-Child Law
• Biden Urges Japan, China to Lower Tensions Over Air Defense Zone
• Long-Running Societal Divide Fuels Thai Conflict

Jubilant Thai Protesters Hug Police But Old Enmities Remain Posted: 03 Dec 2013 04:47 AM PST A Thai flag is waved over the crowd gathered in front of a government building in Bangkok on Tuesday. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy) BANGKOK — In jubilant scenes hard to imagine after days of clashes, protesters swept aside barricades in old Bangkok on Tuesday to occupy the grounds of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's office and warmly greet the police who, until just hours before, had rained teargas and rubber bullets upon them. Cheering, flag-waving crowds marched through the gates of Government House, a heavily fortified flashpoint in a protracted protest aimed at toppling Yingluck's government and banishing the influence of her brother, exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. "I feel great," said Supradith Kamlai, 70, a retired nurse who thronged the area with thousands of other protesters after police were ordered to stand down on Tuesday morning. "We're so happy it's over." But, along with faint traces of teargas, questions persist over how the hard-won breaching of police barricades would end the political deadlock. As Thailand grapples with an uncertain future, it faces a fundamental question: can a crowd that dwindled to 9,000 protesters on Tuesday alter the results of a democratic election in a country of 66 million people? The speed with which street battles turned into smile fests suggested how quickly the country's dysfunctional politics could lurch back to violence again. With Yingluck's government still in place, and thousands of protesters still occupying the Finance Ministry and other government buildings, the police withdrawal felt like a temporary de-escalation of tension before the 86th birthday celebrations on Thursday of King Bhumibol Adulyudej, revered by the protesters. Yingluck shows no sign of heeding demands to either resign or call an election. "The government is still doing its job," her deputy Pongthep Thepkanchana told Reuters. Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban vowed to fight on. "This is only a partial victory, it is not final," he said at a government complex in north Bangkok at which his supporters are camped. At Government House, protesters swarmed over its lawns, but did not occupy the building, where soldiers were stationed. "We've won here. We don't need to take over Government House," said Don, 58, who didn't want his full name used. "The fight isn't over, but we're winning." "Good People" The sudden refusal of the police to defend Government House might have made Yingluck look weak, but it has also stripped some of the symbolism from occupying the building. By 11 am on Tuesday, a large frontloader operated by protesters set about removing the concrete barricades protecting the Metropolitan Police Bureau headquarters, a short walk from Government House. Protest guards linked arms to hold back an ebullient crowd. "We don't want anyone to go inside and ruin government buildings, said Brenda Nong, 51, a protester from Bangkok. "We're good people. We're here for democracy." Nearby, as the frontloader made short work of the barricades, hundreds of police watched, ate lunch or dozed in the shade. Through a loudspeaker, a police officer urged his men to greet the approaching protesters "with a friendly smile." With noon approaching, the frontloader swept aside the last concrete barrier, and a thousands-strong crowd blowing whistles and waving Thai flags surged into the area. Police flanked the roadside, forming almost an honor guard, as protesters clasped their hands together in a wai, the traditional Thai greeting, or shook hands or hugged their former adversaries. Many people were visibly moved. Protesters made no attempt to enter the police headquarters, where they were met by uniformed officers handing out red roses. The protesters shouted "Long live the King!" and marched on, holding the flags and flowers aloft. Even if Yingluck didn't immediately resign, she was now a lame-duck prime minister, said 70-year-old protester Supradith, who wore a floppy sun hat and a black T-shirt saying "No negotiations. No talks. No Thaksin regime." "Nobody will listen to her anymore," she said. Protest leaders have vilified the police as lackeys of Thaksin, himself a former officer, but protesters claim to bear no ill-will towards the rank-and-file who manned the barricades. "We are your friends," shouted a protester from a truck moving past police packing up their things. "You can go home now. Your wives and children are waiting." For now, Bangkok is saddled with the mother of all clean-ups. Roads around Government House were clogged with burned-out or broken-down police trucks and littered with rocks and broken glass. Volunteers, one using a police riot shield, were already sweeping up the debris on Tuesday afternoon, aware that their former battleground is also the historic center for public celebrations of the king's birthday. KEYWORDS: Thailand, Thaksin, yingluck, Shinawatra, Suthep, protests The post Jubilant Thai Protesters Hug Police But Old Enmities Remain appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Burma Lawyers See Greater Freedom, but Still Far to Go Posted: 03 Dec 2013 04:30 AM PST A monk walks past the High Court building in Rangoon. (Photo: The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — Lawyers in Burma have seen a substantial lessening of harassment and interference from the government in the transition from military rule, but significant challenges to their independence remain, particularly in politically sensitive cases, the International Commission of Jurists (ICJ) says. In a report launched Tuesday, the international commission of judges and lawyers said endemic corruption, low-standard law schools, and the military's impunity from prosecution have undermined Burma's rule of law, a concept that opposition leaders and the government alike have highlighted as necessary to boost political reforms. Rule of law is also seen as crucial for attracting foreign investors, who may be wary of conducting business in a country where land disputes and other conflicts are often settled through protests or violence, rather than in the courts. "Since 2011, in particular, there have been significant improvements," Sam Zarifi, the Asia-Pacific regional director for the ICJ, told reporters at a press conference in Rangoon, referring to increasing freedom for lawyers since President Thein Sein's quasi-civilian government came to power. "Overwhelmingly, unanimously, I would say, the lawyers we spoke with said their overall independence had improved clearly over the past few years. "But the track record for the independence of lawyers in Myanmar [Burma] was quite poor," he added. Despite improvements, harassment and monitoring by state authorities, particularly in sensitive cases involving ethnic or religious minorities, continue to hamper the work of lawyers in Burma, according to the report, which drew from interviews with dozens of senior government lawyers, prosecutors, judges, human rights lawyers, and commercial and family lawyers who do not work on political issues. Lawyers in Burma played an important role in the struggle against nearly half a century of dictatorship. Many lawyers acted as human rights defenders, challenging rights violations or promoting political reform, while others defended the cases of rights activists in the courts. Under military rule, lawyers were routinely subjected to criminal prosecutions and convictions related to their representation of clients in politically sensitive cases. "It was not rare for military intelligence to come and knock on your door after you had seen a client, so lawyers were afraid," one lawyer told the ICJ, as quoted in the report. Citing the International Bar Association, the ICJ said more than 1,000 of Burma's estimated 48,000 lawyers had been disciplined over the past 20 years, with many having their licenses revoked or suspended. As many as 200 lawyers who were disbarred for political reasons may remain without licenses, the report said, adding that others had seen their licenses reinstated. "In the Myanmar legal community, the first priority goes to judges, second to prosecution, third to police and then to lawyers. Lawyers are the lowest, they always look down on the lawyers," said the joint secretary of the Myanmar Lawyers Network, Thein Than Oo, whose license was revoked when he was imprisoned for his involvement in the 1988 pro-democracy uprising. His license was reinstated last year. Following anti-government protests, including the nationwide demonstrations in 1988, the former military regime took steps to weaken the legal education system and restrict the ability of lawyers to organize in independent self-governing bodies that could protect their professional interests. Legal education in Burma has been undermined by a reduction in admission standards, said the ICJ, as well as poorly devised curriculum and methods of instruction that have produced graduates who are generally seen as ill-prepared to practice law. Since at least the mid-1990s, a change requiring law students to take exams in English rather than Burmese language has also caused problems. Khin Mar Yee, head of the department of law at Yangon University—which was for many years the only law school in the country—told the ICJ that English-language requirements were the greatest challenge to legal education today. There are now 11 institutions that provide some form of legal education in Burma, but admission standards and expectations remain low, according to the report. It said law students at distance-learning universities in Rangoon and Mandalay prepared for English-language examinations through pre-test courses where they receive exam questions in advance. "I finished school in 2006," Than Than Aye, a lawyer from Pegu Division, told reporters at the press conference. "In my honest opinion, it was not adequate legal education, so I had to try to study on my own outside school. The older lawyers had better schooling. Before '88, the system was good, but afterward the system deteriorated." After graduating school, lawyers interviewed for the report said it had become easier to challenge security forces in cases of alleged human rights violations but that they still encountered problems. "Challenging the military remains hugely problematic in Myanmar because of the special impunity written into the Constitution, and essentially the inability to challenge the military in civilian courts," Zarifi said. Harassment has decreased since 2011, but lawyers interviewed for the report recalled being followed by the police during their work and being interrupted by security officials during human rights training workshops. In March, the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Burma also expressed concern about ongoing intimidation of lawyers in the country. One area that has not seen improvement since 2011 is intimidation of lawyers representing religious minorities, especially Muslims, said Zarifi, and particularly in western Burma's Arakan State. "The lawyers we spoke with uniformly said they stay away from such clients," he said. "There is significant fear on the parts of lawyers who are willing to take these cases or willing to represent these clients," he added, citing intimidation by officials as well as private parties. Tensions between Buddhists and Muslims in Buddhist-majority Burma have heightened over the past year, with several instances of deadly anti-Muslim rioting around the country, as well as communal clashes in Arakan State that left about 140,000 people homeless last year. While corruption has improved in recent years, according to the report, nearly all lawyers interviewed identified bribery for particular legal outcomes, as well as the misuse of influence, as the most acute challenges to their independence. The ICJ said corruption not only undermined the public's view of the legal process, but also affected aspects of a lawyer's career ranging from completing law school to retaining clients, accessing information, submitting motions, winning cases and ensuring enforcement of judgments. "I will lose if my opponent has money," one lawyer was quoted as saying in the report. Moe Moe Aye, a Rangoon-based advocate and legal adviser at Hlaing International law firm, called for a raise in judges' salaries to help curb the practice of bribery. "We not only need to increase their salaries, but we also need an independent committee to inspect cases of bribery," she told The Irrawaddy. Among chief recommendations by the ICJ was reform to the Myanmar Bar Council, a statutorily mandated institution that oversees registration and discipline of advocates. The 11-member body currently lacks independence, said the report, as it is chaired by the attorney general, while the vice chair is the deputy attorney general. Lawyers interviewed in the report unanimously condemned the council, with some reportedly saying its members were asserting government control over the legal profession and in some cases actually acting against the interest of lawyers. Earlier this year, the government published a draft amendment to the Bar Council Act that would incorporate membership of 10 advocates, elected by advocates. Zarifi said the Bar Council Act was currently moving through Parliament. The Ministry of Education has also been urged by the ICJ to bolster standards of admission to law school and to improve law school curricula, instruction and assessment of students. The ICJ is a nongovernmental organization that comprises 60 judges and lawyers from around the world and is active on five continents. It works to promote human rights by defending the rule of law and advancing the independence of judiciaries and lawyers. The ICJ discussed its findings in Naypyidaw with Sit Aye and Khin Myo Myint, legal advisors to Thein Sein; as well as Nanda Kyaw Swe, chairperson of the Lower House commission on the assessment of legal affairs and special issues; and Htay Oo, deputy chairperson of the Lower House committee on fundamental rights of citizens, democracy and human rights. The post Burma Lawyers See Greater Freedom, but Still Far to Go appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Burma’s SMEs Uneasy Ahead of Asean Trade Zone Posted: 03 Dec 2013 04:17 AM PST A bank employee ties stacks of kyat banknotes. (Photo: Reuters) RANGOON — Lamenting high domestic interest rates and Burma's relative inexperience in the competitive global marketplace, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Burma are wary as 2015 approaches, when implementation of the regional Asean Economic Community (AEC) is expected to drop barriers to trade in Southeast Asia. The government and private sector have collaborated on a recently released draft law that would stipulate what constitutes SMEs, part of hurried efforts to ready Burma's stunted economy ahead of the country's Asean chairmanship next year—a role in which it will be expected to lead preparations for the 2015 AEC launch. Khine Khine Nwe, joint secretary general of the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (UMFCCI), said foreign direct investment would rise with direct market access to the 10-nation regional grouping. Burma's SMEs, she added, were largely inexperienced in working outside the country because transactions with foreign companies and customers have traditionally been subcontracted to go-between firms. "Every small and medium enterprise is afraid of FTA [free trade agreement]. They are concerned that they are not in a position to compete. For me, I believe in remedying the situation. Benefits always rise alongside performance. If we cannot perform well, we will fade away," she said during a three-day seminar held by the Economic Research Institute for Asean and East Asia last week in Naypyidaw. "The country needs investment and technology," Khine Khine Nwe said, adding that foreign investors should not be viewed as only a threat, but also as potential sources from which local entrepreneurs could learn best-practice business methods. Htun Naing Aung, chairman of Kaung Kyaw Say Engineering Co Ltd and a central executive committee member of the Myanmar Industrial Association, said the underdeveloped state of Burma's SMEs, which are just now considering their global prospects after years of Western economic sanctions, could have far-reaching negative impacts. High domestic interest rates are central to the challenges. The interest rate set by Burma's Central Bank is 8.5 percent, while the average short-term loan rate internationally is just 1 percent, according to the Myanmar Industrial Association. "Our SMEs are almost dying ahead of AEC in 2015. With high interest rates, how can we compete with FDI [foreign direct investors] who have low interest rates?" Htun Naing Aung said. A spokesperson for the Central Bank defended the benchmark rate, saying the bank had already reduced business loan interest rates from 12 percent in 2011. She said the high rate was in part set to encourage people to deposit money in interest-earning savings accounts that could then be used to issue more loans. "We also need stability in the immature financial sector," the spokesperson added. Compounding SMEs' challenges, a professor from the Yangon Institute of Economics pointed out that smaller, less capitalized enterprises were squeezed by a handful of large companies that dominate business in Burma. "We were under military government rule for many years and we have no connections with the outside world. So our SMEs are not yet ready to face foreign competition," the professor said. "In Myanmar, the cost of electricity is very high and land prices are also high compared with other Asean countries." "The FDI law has been passed, and foreign direct investors will be able to enjoy whatever raw material and machinery imports tax-free [under the AEC]," said Nu Nu Lwin,another professoratMonya Institute of Economics' Department of Management Studies. "It is a very good opportunity for foreign companies but for local small and medium enterprises that are already suffering from high logistics costs and lack a proper industrial policy, I think it will be quite difficult for Myanmar SMEs." However, Khine Khine Nwe urged entrepreneurs to put negative expectations in check. "At least we can have a chance to perform well. If we strictly think of the disadvantages [of the AEC], how can we count on benefits? … That kind of mind-set has to change." The post Burma's SMEs Uneasy Ahead of Asean Trade Zone appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

In Dawei, ITD Projects Suspended, Not Terminated: Minister Posted: 03 Dec 2013 04:08 AM PST A construction site for the Dawei deep-sea port project in southern Burma. (Photo: The Irrawaddy) Rangoon — The Italian-Thai Development Pcl (ITD) will continue to oversee projects it launched before Burma and Thailand seized control of the multi-billion dollar Dawei Special Economic Zone (SEZ) last month, but foreign investors will be invited to bid for future development work, Burma ministry officials say. Burma Labor Minister Aye Myint, who chairs the Dawei SEZ working committee, has denied that ITD was completely pulled from development of the strategically located complex, which is expected to operate as a deep-sea port, petrochemical and heavy industry hub in southeastern Burma. "They can keep working if they want, but they will have to compete with other international investors," he told reporters at a press conference on Monday. "Many people said they were concerned that Thai businesses would exert too much influence over the SEZ, and that Burma would be a loser," he added. "But they are wrong. The management committee by the Burma government is the most powerful." In mid-November, Set Aung, deputy governor of Burma's Central Bank, reportedly told Thai and Burmese officials in Bangkok that ITD, Thailand's largest construction group, had lost its 75-year concession to lead the Dawei SEZ. Set Aung said during the meeting that an international firm would carry out due diligence on work that ITD had already started, according to Reuters. He reportedly said the goal was to allow other foreign investors to come on board. ITD has been blamed in the past for failing to secure enough private investment for Dawei. "The project is quite extensive, and ITD could not invest everything," Han Sein, Burma's deputy minister of transport and chairman of the Dawei SEZ management committee, told reporters Monday. "In this economic zone, there needs to be a lot of investors." He said ITD had been required to temporarily halt activities during a due diligence assessment by international auditors, to ensure that the projects adhere to international standards. The assessment is expected to be completed before April 2014. Officials on Monday said Burma would seek Japanese and Thai investment "as quickly as possible" for the revised plan for the first stage of the Dawei zone, which includes construction of small ports and access roads, a water supply system and a small gas-fired power plant. On Nov. 21, the Burma and Thai governments formed a joint high-level committee to reach out to potential international investors, Han Sein said. He said both governments were organizing two public companies to sell shares in the Thai market and eventually in a Burmese market. International auditing companies Ernst & Young, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) and Deloitte have been asked to submit proposals to conduct the due diligence assessment, Set Aung said, adding that the Thai and Burma governments would select one firm for the job. "The auditing firms will assess how much ITD spent in this SEZ," he added. Last month ITD reportedly said it had invested around 6 billion baht (US$189 million) in Dawei and expected full reimbursement plus interest. The special economic zone was originally slated to cover about 205 square kilometers but has since been reduced to 196 kilometers. In the revised plan, six villages will be relocated for the project, as opposed to 16 villages in the original plan. Residents who have lost over 6,000 acres of land around the zone have already received compensation worth 33 billion kyats (US$33 million), according to Phone Swe, deputy minister for social welfare, relief and resettlement. "We will need to provide 340 billion kyats in compensation to villagers, as we expected, and at this point about 33 billion kyats has already been paid by ITD," he said. He added that amid the suspension of ITD projects in Dawei, Thai workers had been sent back to Thailand and Burmese workers had also found themselves without employment. "Some sub-companies in the SEZ have already quit, so Burmese workers are facing job problems now. I'm talking with the Tanintharyi Region [Tenasserim Division] government to see how we can help them," he said. The post In Dawei, ITD Projects Suspended, Not Terminated: Minister appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Reforming Burma Moves Up Global Corruption Rankings Posted: 03 Dec 2013 04:00 AM PST An open tender for private firms to operate mobile phones in Burma—which will see an end to 'SIM card lotteries'—appears to have helped improve the country's image for corruption. (Photo: Reuters) RANGOON — The Burma government's reforms since a quasi-civilian government took charge in 2011 appear to be improving its poor reputation for corruption, with global watchdog Transparency International on Tuesday boosting the country's ranking in its annual survey. The Berlin-based organization put Burma 157 out of 177 countries surveyed for its Corruption Perceptions Index 2013.The ranking represents a significant improvement from Transparency International's survey a year ago, in which the country was ranked 172 out of 176 nations, above only Sudan, Afghanistan, North Korea and Somalia. The index gives countries scores between 0 (highly corrupt) and 100 (very clean). Despite the improvement, Burma's score of 21 in this year's index—compared with 15 in 2012—put it only level with troubled African states Zimbabwe and Burundi, and made it the worst performer in Southeast Asia, except for Cambodia (20). Burma remained below neighbors Laos (26) and Bangladesh (27), while Thailand scored 35 and ranked in 102 in the index. Transparency International said its rankings were based on "experts' opinions of public sector corruption," and took into account the level of access to information on corruption, the accountability of public bodies and the rules that a country has in place to govern the behavior of public officials. The organization did not detail in its report how the rankings were reached for individual countries and did not immediately respond to questions from The Irrawaddy. The improved ranking for Burma comes amid a program of economic reforms since President Thein Sein's administration came to power and began to shed the country's image as a highly corrupt military dictatorship that allowed government cronies to win contracts and receive favorable treatment. A highly competitive tender for two telecommunications licenses, awarded in June, was seen as a comparatively transparent process. In August, contracts to build a new airport for Rangoon and to operate existing airports in the former capital and Mandalay were awarded after heated competition between international companies. This year, open tenders have also been held for both onshore and offshore oil and gas exploration licenses, again with the government exercising levels of openness unseen under previous administrations. Parliament in July approved a new Anticorruption Law, which established an anticorruption commission and requires officials in the executive, judicial and legislative arms of government to declare their assets. Vicky Bowman, director of the Myanmar Centre for Responsible Business, told The Irrawaddy that the new law was likely a factor in the improved ranking. "The signals that the new Corruption Law have sent will also help to move it up the Index, as will the greater openness by government to report on officials dismissed for corruption—although there is still scope for more action on that," Bowman said in an email. "As for changes on the ground, there is anecdotal evidence that there has been a change of attitudes in areas which were previously particularly prone to corruption, such as obtaining building permits." Bowman, a former British ambassador to Burma, said the index was not an "exact science," adding that Burma's previous rankings from Transparency International seemed pessimistic based on her experience of other better-ranked countries. "So I suspect that, since the index is based on 'perceptions,' and my hunch is that many people surveyed previously developed their perceptions from media reporting, the fact that more businesspeople are visiting and now familiar with the country may have moved it up the index." Longtime Burma watcher and economist Sean Turnell said the increasingly open atmosphere in Burma suggested that Transparency International likely had access to more information while coming up with the ranking, which could partly explain the improvement. "I suspect this [ranking] is the result of real issues (such as the tender), as well as the broader positive ‘vibe’ about Burma across the survey period," he said by email. The post Reforming Burma Moves Up Global Corruption Rankings appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Govt Denies Report of Helicopter Maker’s Rangoon Factory Plans Posted: 03 Dec 2013 03:41 AM PST A Robinson R22, manufactured by Robinson Helicopter Company, is pictured. (Photo: Wikimedia) RANGOON — Burma's Department of Civil Aviation says there are no plans to allow a foreign helicopter company to open manufacturing operations in Rangoon, refuting a recent report by the local Yangon Times daily. On Monday, the Yangon Times reported that US-based Robinson Helicopter Company was planning to open a factory in either Thanlyin or Mhawbi Township in Rangoon, with the daily quoting the purported local partner Htein Lin. In the report, Htein Lin said the company would initially introduce its products to the local market, followed by the opening of showroom, with Robinson Helicopter then planning to start manufacturing choppers in Rangoon. "We'll introduce a double-seat helicopter in Rangoon first, and it will cost US$270,000," Htein Lin told the Yangon Times. Robinson Helicopter, based in Torrance, California, is the largest manufacturer of civil aviation helicopters in North America. The company produces three helicopter models as well as a modular helipad designed for light helicopters. However, Tin Naing Tun, the director general of the Department of Civil Aviation, denied that any foreign helicopter company had inked an agreement with his department. "If some foreign helicopter company wants to open a factory or to open a showroom or whatever, they will have to deal with us first as a matter of procedure. As of now, I do not have any deal with foreign companies," Tin Naing Tun said. "Even if foreign helicopter companies are interested in opening a factory, where is the demand in the local market?" he said. The Yangon Times quoted Htein Lin as saying that Robinson Helicopter would reach out to government departments to extend its market reach and would help buyers find helicopter pilots and related spare parts if need be. The post Govt Denies Report of Helicopter Maker's Rangoon Factory Plans appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Rangoon’s Ethnic Shan Celebrate New Year With Cultural Delights Posted: 03 Dec 2013 01:57 AM PST An ethnic Shan dancer in an elaborate peacock costume performs at a Shan New Year celebration in Rangoon on Monday night. (Photo: Sai Zaw / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — Hundreds of ethnic Shan people celebrated their New Year in Rangoon on Monday evening, in an event involving traditional dances and songs at a Shan Buddhist temple in Mayangone Township. One night every December, the Shan, who are the dominant ethnic group in eastern Burma's Shan State but form a small minority the former capital, gather to see in the New Year. On Monday evening, a large crowd congregated at the Chan Myint Thar Yar Shan temple off Prome Road. They spoke in the Shan language, wearing small Shan flags stuck to their cheeks, traditional Shan silk dresses for women and baggy Shan trousers for men, and traditional brightly colored headdresses. Sai Leang Han, the secretary of Shan Literature and Culture Association, told The Irrawaddy, "Our main intention in celebrating our Shan New Year is we want to promote our literature and culture. "Another reason is our Shan here [in Rangoon] are too far from their mother land, I mean they are far from the atmosphere of their motherland. All our Shan people can gather at one place for this celebration." Shan people celebrated the New Year at midnight, singing a traditional New Year song, and all dancing together. The Shan calendar turned over to the year 2108, which for the Shan is the year of the horse. In Shan State, the people celebrated their new year with fire crackers, but in Rangoon they did not have permission to do so. "I did not like to ask permission to use fire crackers. We will have group songs and welcome the New Year with our performance of old Shan instruments," Sai Leang Han said. He said it was not easy to put on the celebration in Rangoon since the Shan minority living in or near Rangoon is scattered around. People were brought in from far away by bus, he said. And although many of young Shan in Rangoon have joins which meant they could not join the celebration, he said, the event was a success. "I have the same feeling of happiness either celebrating in here or Shan State. I feel it is no different," said Sai Leang Han. "I feel very pleased to see our Shan dress and Shan entertainment." At the celebration, stalls sold Shan traditional garments and Shan food. The Shan Literature and Culture Association collected money for the celebration from the Shan residents living in Rangoon, with volunteers going door to door and performing Shan songs to garner funds. The ethnic Shan population in Rangoon Division is estimated at between 40,000, and 50,000 people, concentrated in Kamaryut, Daik Gyi and Twan Tay townships. It is traditional on Shan New Year's Day, Tuesday, for Shan people to donate food to Buddhist monks or to pray at pagodas, for good luck in the coming year. "Our Shan people went to pray at pagodas during on New Year's Day, and we had a food donation celebration," said Shan community leader Hkun Htun Oo. Two ethnic Shan groups—Shan State Army-North and Shan State Army-South—are still armed, alongside a number of other ethnic groups in fighting in Shan State. Since a quasi-civilian government came to power in 2011, both groups have signed individual ceasefire agreements with the government and are both involved in ongoing talks for a nationwide ceasefire. The Shan Literature and Culture Association's Sai Leang Han said one benefit of the recent political reforms in Burma has been that it is now easier to organize events like Monday's New Year celebrations, which in the past may have been held up by difficulties obtaining permission from authorities. "We found that one thing changed after having reforms in country, which is it is easy to apply and get permission for a celebration," said Sai Leang Han. He said Monday's event gave him hope that Shan culture—which like all non-Burman ethnic groups in Burma was suppressed under the former military regime—would flourish once more. "I found here that our literature and culture will continue to grow, unless they restrict us," he said. The post Rangoon's Ethnic Shan Celebrate New Year With Cultural Delights appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Burma Looks Abroad for Investment in Health Care Posted: 03 Dec 2013 01:40 AM PST A man lies on the floor in Rangoon General Hospital on Oct. 15, 2013. (Photo: Reuters) RANGOON — Rangoon General Hospital was once the jewel in the crown of one of Southeast Asia's best health care systems. These days, hundreds of patients are forced to sleep in corridors of the hulking, colonial-era red-brick building, dogs doze on the floor of the emergency ward and garbage is piled in corners. It is a scene that Burma's reformist government hopes to change as it ratchets up spending on the sector and seeks foreign investment to revive one of Asia's sickest health care systems. Several leading regional healthcare companies are already operating in Burma and others plan to enter soon, seeing huge potential in the country's underserved population of about 60 million people. Attracting foreign investment is part of an overhaul of the healthcare system by the quasi-civilian government that took over from the army in 2011. The administration of President Thein Sein has cut military spending and raised healthcare funding to 3 percent of government spending this fiscal year to March 31, from 1 percent the previous year. As with many sectors, however, private firms say they are being held back by uncertainty over rules for foreign investors. The Health Ministry is drawing up regulations for foreign hospital operators to open facilities in Burma independently or through joint ventures, said a senior ministry official, who requested anonymity as he was not authorized to speak to media. Private Investment Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Pcl, Thailand's largest private hospital group, sees Burma as the company's "first priority for foreign investment," said Chief Operating Officer Chatree Duangnet. But Duangnet added that the company was waiting for the government to make the investment laws clearer. Amiruddin Abdul Satar, president of Kuala Lumpur-listed hospitals operator KPJ Healthcare Bhd, told Reuters his company was involved in the management of one hospital already and the government had invited them to expand. The company declined to give further details or reveal the amount of its planned investment. Singapore healthcare provider AsiaMedic Ltd said in a June statement it had signed an initial joint venture agreement with Five Oceans Service Co Ltd, a Burmese company, to invest at least US$3 million to set up diagnostic scanners in two hospitals in the northern city of Mandalay. Patients in Myanmar currently have to travel to cities such as Bangkok and Singapore for scans. A spokesperson for AsiaMedic told Reuters on Nov. 5 that the companies had yet to sign a definitive agreement. The role private companies will play in the healthcare system remains to be determined, said Hnin Hnin Pyne, a senior human development specialist with the World Bank who is working with the government on healthcare reform. "How is this going to benefit the poor? For me that is a massive question," she said, adding that the government has set a goal to provide health coverage to all citizens by 2030. At a Nov. 25 meeting in the capital, Naypyidaw, Health Minister Pe Thet Khin said cooperation between the government and private sector would be key in achieving universal coverage, the state-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper reported. Hnin Hnin Pyne said the government was still deciding whether healthcare will be free or subsidized. "Drastic Improvement" The healthcare system wasted away during decades of neglect under military rule, so that currently the high price is beyond the means of many in one of Asia's poorest countries, while those who can afford it often seek treatment overseas. When Aung Myint, 67, was diagnosed with liver cancer in 2005, he went to Thailand rather than be operated on in Burma, where a family member had died of tetanus after undergoing a minor operation. "It was my two sons, both of them doctors, who insisted I shouldn't receive the treatments here," he said. In 2000, during the dark days of dictatorship, the World Health Organization ranked Myanmar second-last out of 191 countries surveyed for "overall health system performance." By the 2009/2010 fiscal year, patients in Myanmar had to cover 81 percent of their healthcare costs themselves, the highest of any country in Asia, according to World Bank data. That compared with 56 percent in Vietnam, 40 percent in Laos, 14 percent in Thailand and 35 percent in China. "Now, because public spending has gone up, out-of-pocket is around 60 percent," said Hnin Hnin Pyne. "That doesn't mean it's not a problem." Tha Hla Shwe, who became president of the Myanmar Red Cross Society in 2004 after working in the public health system since 1966, said the increased spending was already paying dividends. "Lately, I would say it's improving quite drastically," he said. Aung Myint Lwin, the senior administrator of Yankin Children's Hospital in Rangoon, said increased funding has meant his 550-bed hospital can now supply drugs free of charge to patients who can't afford to pay. He said he hoped the hospital would one day be able to provide free medical care to every child who visits the hospital. "That is our dream," said Aung Myint Lwin. "In the near future I believe the dream will become true." The post Burma Looks Abroad for Investment in Health Care appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

China On The Moon Posted: 03 Dec 2013 01:16 AM PST The post China On The Moon appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

‘Use of Children Should Be a Violation of Any Ceasefire’ Posted: 03 Dec 2013 12:18 AM PST Samboo, a 12-year-old soldier in the Karen rebel army, poses with a gun in a jungle camp near the Thai border in this file photo from January 2000. (Photo: Reuters) The UN Security Council Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict is in Burma this week to review efforts by the government to eradicate the practice of conscripting child soldiers, and to encourage further reform. Burma is among some 20 countries that the UN says bolsters its military ranks through underage recruitment, but recent reforms leave room for hope that the practice can be stamped out once and for all. The signing of a Joint Action Plan in June 2012 marked a promising commitment by the government to address the issue, in a country where civil war has for decades fueled child soldier recruitment by the government and ethnic armed rebels. Charu Lata Hogg, Asia program manager for Child Soldiers International, an NGO working to end the practice of underage recruitment across the globe, spoke to The Irrawaddy about the issue as the Working Group visited Burma this week. Though the situation in Burma has improved, children continue to be used in conflict, Hogg said, urging all responsible parties to do their part to eliminate the scourge. Q: What progress has been made since the government signed a UN Action Plan to eliminate the use of child soldiers? A: Certainly important steps have been taken to end underage recruitment since the signing of the Joint Action Plan. UN figures show that 176 children have been released from the ranks of the Tatmadaw [Burma's military]; access to military sites by the UN Country Task Force has improved; the number of soldiers held accountable for underage recruitment has increased; and important procedures have been introduced by the government to ensure that recruitment processes are improved at least in the four main recruitment centers. However, almost 18 months since the signing of the Action Plan, children continue to be present in the ranks of the Tatmadaw Kyi[Burma Army] and the Border Guard Forces [BGFs] as well as armed opposition groups. Access to military sites remains constricted by a 72-hour notice period and children who escape from the Tatmadaw Kyi continue to be detained and treated as adult deserters. While some form of disciplinary action by the military is taken in cases brought to their attention, the majority of those punished are of lower ranks. Q: How many people have been charged with child soldier recruitment? A: According to the International Labor Organization, in response to their complaints, 241 perpetrators have received either judicial or administrative punishment. Of these, 15 have received prison sentences. Q: Can you explain a bit more about the 72-hour notice policy you mentioned? A: The terms of independent access to recruitment and training centers, and other places where child soldiers are present, are the subject of intense negotiations in every country where such plans have been signed. We understand that in Myanmar, advanced notice of 72 hours is required. Child Soldiers International believes that these conditions fall short of the regular and unimpeded access that is an essential prerequisite to effective verification of the Action Plan's implementation. Q: And what kind of penalties do these children face for desertion? A: Children who attempt to escape or do escape from the army are arrested and tried on charges of desertion. For those who ran away for a year or more, our research shows that they would be tried in military courts for being absent from duty without permission and sentenced for a period proportionate to the length of time they had escaped for and, on release, would be required to continue serving in the army. Q: I've seen the number of child soldiers in Burma estimated at 5,000. Is that a fair guess? A: In the absence of independent monitoring, it is impossible to estimate the number of child soldiers present in the ranks of the Myanmar military, the BGF and armed groups. We would not like to estimate numbers. Q: But there seems to be widespread agreement that the number of child soldiers still conscripted is many times larger than the 176 children released so far. What is holding back a larger release of child soldiers? A: Our research shows that a persistent emphasis on increasing troop numbers—accompanied by corruption, weak oversight and impunity—has historically led to high rates of child recruitment in the Tatmadaw Kyi. An incentive-based quota system in the Myanmar military continues to drive demand for fresh recruits and works against the quick release of children. The practice of falsification of age documents, including National Registration Cards and family lists, continues unchecked and no measures have been taken to establish accountability for this practice. Q: How should the issue of child soldiers be handled in the context of the government's hoped-for 'nationwide ceasefire agreement' with Burma's ethnic armed groups? A: The Security Council Working Group has urged the Myanmar government to ensure that the issue of child protection, including the release and reintegration of children, is integrated into ceasefire and/or peace talks and agreements. In our view, recruitment and use of children should be considered a violation of the ceasefire agreement. The monitoring ceasefire committee should have an explicit mandate to monitor such violations and to report them to the UN. We have seen in other contexts, such as the DRC [Democratic Republic of Congo], where the issue of child soldiers being overlooked in peace agreements has contributed to instability and violence. A number of ethnic armies have also made a commitment to end underage recruitment and use. The Karen National Union, Karenni National Progressive Party and the New Mon State Party have signed deeds of commitment to end underage recruitment. Some of these groups, notably the KNLA and KNPP, have expressed an interest in entering into a dialogue with the UN to verify and demobilize children. This expression of intent by armed groups should be turned into tangible commitments in the peace process. Q: To your knowledge, are child soldiers a part of the current ceasefire discussions? A: The Myanmar Peace Center has certainly voiced support for the inclusion of issues concerning protection of children in the nationwide ceasefire agreement. However, the Myanmar government and armed groups need to agree to child soldiers' issues being fully incorporated throughout the peace process. We are not aware whether the government and armed groups have agreed to implement this key recommendation by the Working Group. Q: Your organization says 'most of the cases of underage recruitment in 2013 have been coerced, with children being tricked or lured into the army through false promises.' Can you offer some specific examples of what form this takes? A: Our information shows that recruitment is achieved mostly among poor and uneducated children, the overwhelming majority of whom have not finished eighth grade at school and are particularly vulnerable to false threats of legal action, persuasive language and promises of salaries. Recruiters are also known to threaten children and use force. A common tactic practiced is to demand to see the individual's National Registration Card knowing that children generally do not carry them. If the child presents a student identity card, he is often told that it is an unacceptable form of identification and the recruiter then offers him a choice of joining the army, or facing a long prison term for failing to carry a card. In other cases, children have been offered jobs but not told that the job is with the military. It is only when the child arrives at the battalion or recruitment center that they realize they are being recruited in the military. Poverty is a key factor here. Q: What are the priority areas that the government and ethnic armed groups should focus on to facilitate the release of remaining child soldiers and end further recruitment? A: Firstly, the government needs to fully implement commitments made in the Action Plan by identifying, registering and discharging all children present in the ranks of the Tatmadaw Kyi and the BGFs. For this, unimpeded access to all its military sites, and other areas where children may be present, needs to be provided to the UN Country Task Force. On the prevention side, the government needs to strengthen recruitment procedures and oversight across all recruitment sites in the country; establish a central database with personal information of individual Tatmadaw Kyiand BGF recruits; and reform the civil registration system to ensure that all children are registered at birth free of charge and without discrimination. Ethnic armed groups need to ensure that the issue of protection of children is incorporated into the framework of the nationwide ceasefire agreement and other peace and ceasefire agreements in the future. The post 'Use of Children Should Be a Violation of Any Ceasefire' appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Soups, Statues and Soothsayers in Demand as China Eases One-Child Law Posted: 02 Dec 2013 09:56 PM PST Nurses show a pair of fraternal twins to their mother after they were born at the IVF center of a hospital in Xi'an, Shaanxi province. (Photo: Reuters) SHANGHAI — In a dimly-lit arcade in downtown Shanghai, shopkeeper Xia Zihan holds out a glinting, yellow-glass carving of the fertility goddess Guanyin, a range she says is starting to sell well after China relaxed its single-child policy last month. "Since the news allowing a second child, we've already asked our factory to increase production of the Guanyin statues," said Xia, adding that she expected to see around a 10-20 percent increase in demand for the figurines that cost around 1,000 yuan (US$160) each. Beijing said last month it would allow millions of families to have two children, the most radical relaxation of its strict one-child policy in close to three decades. With an estimated bump of up to 10 percent in the number of births per year, the demand for maternal health care is bound to surge, a lift for private hospital operators who are increasing their share of China's gigantic health care market. Health care providers like Singapore-based Raffles Medical Group Ltd, Malaysia's IHH Healthcare Bhd and US healthcare firm Chindex International Inc already operate in China. "I think for the short-term we can expect some kind of rebound of the fertility rate as women rush to have more babies in the next few years," said Peng Xizhe, a demographics expert at Fudan University in Shanghai. The new rules, which will roll out gradually around China, will allow couples in which just one parent is an only child to have a second baby, part of a plan to raise fertility rates and ease the financial burden of China's rapidly ageing population. This would see an extra annual one million or so births on top of the current 16 million each year, substantial in itself but marginal when compared to China's near 1.4 billion population. Still, the extra births are close to the number of people in a city like Dallas, Texas. The fertility market, especially at the value-end of the scale, could see a short-term spike. The main demographic likely to benefit from the policy change is urban mothers in their late thirties, a group more likely to seek methods to boost their chances of having a second baby, said Peng. Some families will turn to Guanyin figurines, fertility-boosting foods or China's $13 billion traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) market to give birth quickly. Medicine men who promise to ensure the birth of a boy child are also in demand. China's highly-fragmented TCM market is led by firms such as Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd and China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co Ltd, which each have billion dollar-plus annual sales. Analysts said the more mainstream market for pregnancy-related supplements could receive a $40-50 million boost. "The two child policy could bring a wave of women having babies, which would have a positive effect on our sales," said Snow Jin, manager of a herbal store that sells ingredients for "fertility soup" on China's eBay-like online market Taobao. "Parents having a second child are usually older, and so will likely have greater demand for fertility products." The soup, filled with herbs such as Chinese angelica and honeysuckle, as well as red dates, black beans and eggs, is thought to help boost the chances of conception. The increased demand will be focused on major coastal cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, and will affect public sector workers most, a demographic for whom the one-child policy has traditionally been more strictly enforced. "If the policy hadn't changed, I would not have been able to have a second baby. My husband isn't an only child and as I work in the state sector, if I break the rules and have a second child then I would lose my job," said Lily Cai, 30, a civil servant in Shanghai who has a 16-month-old baby girl. Cai said her husband and his family were keen to have a second child, and have often said it would be better to have a boy, a traditional preference in China. "Almost all my clients are people looking to have a child. Perhaps they've already had a girl, but now want to have a boy to continue the family line," said medicine man Sun Daoguo, who runs a Shanghai store. Parents pay up to 1,000 yuan for him to help raise the chances of a boy being born, he said. Sun said he advises mothers-to-be on how to adjust their feng shui, the traditional Chinese concept of balance between a person and the environment, to increase the likelihood of giving birth to a son. More conventional medicines, over-the-counter supplements and treatments such as In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) could also see a surge in sales, although analysts said high-cost procedures like IVF would see the least benefit. "The increase in caring for older mothers will really raise the demand on maternity hospitals and increase the strain on doctors," said Jiang Peiru, head of gynecology at one of Shanghai's top hospitals. She said the clinic had prepared an extra 40 beds, hired more staff and increased training. "We haven't seen a clear rise yet, but next year and the year after there will definitely be an increase as mothers look for treatment due to the child-birth reforms." The post Soups, Statues and Soothsayers in Demand as China Eases One-Child Law appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Biden Urges Japan, China to Lower Tensions Over Air Defense Zone Posted: 02 Dec 2013 09:47 PM PST US Vice President Joseph Biden waves upon his arrival at Haneda airport in Tokyo on Dec. 2, 2013. (Photo: Reuters / Issei Kato) TOKYO — US Vice President Joe Biden urged Japan and China to lower tensions that have spiked since Beijing announced an air defense zone over disputed islands in the East China Sea, while repeating that Washington was "deeply concerned" by the move. The United States has made clear it would stand by treaty obligations that would require it to defend the Japanese-controlled islands, but is also reluctant to get dragged into any military clash between the Asian rivals. Biden will meet Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday before flying to China the next day as part of an Asian trip in which he will seek a delicate balance between calming tensions over the zone while backing key ally Japan. "We remain deeply concerned by the announcement of a new Air Defense Identification Zone," Biden said in written answers to the Asahi daily newspaper. "This latest incident underscores the need for agreement between China and Japan to establish crisis management and confidence building measures to lower tensions." Influential Chinese tabloid the Global Times, published by the Communist Party's official People's Daily, said Biden should not cozy up to Abe or offer effusive support to Japan. "The only choice he has if he wants a successful trip [to China] is not to go too far in his words over there," it wrote in an editorial. "If he openly supports Tokyo and wants to 'send an expedition to punish' Beijing, the Chinese people won't accept it." Japan reiterated on Tuesday that Tokyo and Washington had both rejected Beijing's move to set up the zone—despite the fact that three US airlines, acting on government advice, are notifying China of plans to transit the area. "We and the United States have the same stance of not recognizing this ADIZ," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told a news conference. "We firmly confirm this." Washington said over the weekend that the advice to US airlines did not mean US acceptance of the zone, and last week sent two B-52 bombers into the area without informing China. The Japanese and South Korean governments have advised their airlines not to submit flight plans in advance, which China has demanded from all aircraft since it announced the creation of the zone on Nov. 23. Japan Airlines and ANA Holdings, while complying with the government directive, are uneasy about flying through the zone without giving notice to China, especially after Washington advised US carriers to comply, two sources familiar with the Japanese carriers' thinking told Reuters. White House spokesman Jay Carney told a briefing that for safety reasons, US carriers operated in accordance with notices issued by foreign countries. "However—and let me be clear—this in no way indicates US government acceptance of China's requirement in the newly declared ADIZ, and has absolutely no bearing on the firm and consistent US government position that we do not accept the legitimacy of China's requirements," Carney said. Washington takes no position on the sovereignty of the disputed islands, known as the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China. However, it recognizes Tokyo's administrative control and says the US-Japan security pact applies to them. US, Japanese and South Korean military aircraft all breached the zone last week without informing Beijing and China later scrambled fighters into the area. Biden dismissed doubts in Japan and elsewhere in the region over whether the United States has the resources to carry out a strategic "rebalance" that Washington says is a cornerstone of its foreign policy in Asia, given US fiscal woes, its attention on the Middle East, and partisan battles at home. Some experts said those doubts may have encouraged China to think the United States would not react strongly to its announcement of the air defense zone. "Japan knows that we have stayed for more than 60 years, providing the security that made possible the region's economic miracle," he said. "Economically, diplomatically, militarily, we have been, we are, and we will remain a resident Pacific power." The post Biden Urges Japan, China to Lower Tensions Over Air Defense Zone appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Long-Running Societal Divide Fuels Thai Conflict Posted: 02 Dec 2013 09:16 PM PST An anti-government protester runs away from teargas fired by riot police during clashes near the Government House in Bangkok Dec. 3, 2013. (Photo: Reuters) BANGKOK — Both the protesters on the streets of Bangkok and the Thai government pleading for them to go home say they're on the side of democracy, but that is not what their increasingly dangerous conflict is about. This is a fight about power, and who ought to have it. The unrest that has brought the capital to the brink of catastrophe this week has laid bare a societal schism pitting the majority rural poor against an urban-based elite establishment. It is a divide that has led to upheaval several times in recent years, sometimes death, even though the man at the center of it, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, has not set foot in Thailand since 2008. Thaksin is despised by millions who consider him to be a corrupt threat to the traditional status quo, but supported by millions more who welcome the populist policies that benefit them. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin's sister, helped set the stage for Thailand's latest protests by backing an amnesty bill that would have wiped out a corruption conviction that keeps Thaksin in self-imposed exile. Now his longtime political foes are trying to use that public anger to seize control. Suthep Thaugsuban, an opposition politician who resigned from Parliament to lead the protests, says he won't stop until power is "in the people's hands," but his plan sounds anything but democratic. He's calling for an unelected "people's council" to replace a government that won a landslide victory at the polls just two years ago. And the way his supporters have gone about it has not been entirely peaceful. They have called for Yingluck's overthrow from the occupied halls of seized government offices. They burst through the gates of Thailand's army headquarters and urged the military to "take a stand." And since the weekend, they have tried to battle their way into the prime minister's office with slingshots and burning Molotov cocktails, and threatened to overrun television stations that do not broadcast their message. Thailand has endured 18 successful or attempted military coups since the 1930s, but so far the army has remained neutral. Yingluck said Monday she will do everything she can "to bring peace back to the Thai people," but said there is no way the government could meet Suthep's demand under the Constitution. Suthep has said Yingluck's resignation and new elections would not be enough. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of Chulalongkorn's Institute of Security and International Studies, said the two sides "believe in different versions of democracy." "It is a fight for the soul of the nation, for the future of the country," he said. One side wants "to be heard" while the protesters "want the kind of legitimacy that stems from moral authority. Their feeling is…if the elected majority represents the will of the corrupt, it's not going to work." The unrest already may have weakened Southeast Asia's second-largest economy. Thailand is a lucrative manufacturing hub whose factories produce everything from computer hard drives to cars that feed a global supply chain. The country is one of the world's leading rice exporters. Its sapphire-blue water beaches are among the world's most popular tourist destinations, but the government has said protests are driving tourists away. The latest unrest began last month, after Yingluck's ruling Pheu Thai Party tried to ram the controversial amnesty bill through. Even many traditional Thaksin supporters disliked it because it also would have pardoned top opposition leaders. The bill failed to pass Parliament's Upper House, and emboldened protesters drew 100,000 people to a mass rally in Bangkok on Nov. 24. Over the week that followed, demonstrators seized the Finance Ministry and part of a sprawling government office complex that includes the Constitutional Court. They also massed outside half a dozen other government ministries, taking over offices and prompting the evacuation of civil servants—some of whom had eagerly waved them inside. The conflict escalated dramatically this weekend, and blood spilled for the first time. At least three people were killed when anti-government demonstrators clashed with pro-Thaksin "red shirt" activists near a stadium where a pro-government rally was being held. Outside Yingluck's office at the now heavily fortified Government House, masked mobs launched repeated bids to storm rings of concrete barriers. The police used force there for the first time, unleashing volleys of rubber bullets and tear gas. The protests have failed to dislodge the government so far, but it remains possible that Thailand's history will repeat itself. The army deposed Thaksin in a 2006 coup. Controversial court rulings that critics labeled "judicial coups" forced the resignation of two Thaksin-allied prime ministers who followed. One of them was Thaksin's brother-in-law, who saw his own office at Government House occupied by protesters for three months in 2008. The opposition Democrat Party took over, and in 2009, pro-Thaksin protesters overran a regional summit, forcing heads of state to be hastily evacuated by helicopter from a hotel rooftop. The next year, red shirts occupied Bangkok's glitziest shopping district for weeks in a standoff that ended with parts of the city in flames. More than 90 people died, many of them protesters gunned down in an army crackdown ordered by Suthep, who was deputy prime minister at the time. The Democrats, who have not won a national election in more than 20 years, were soundly beaten by Pheu Thai and Yingluck in 2011. Protesters claim her ascent was only made possible with Thaksin money. "You can't call this a democracy," said Sombat Benjasirimongkol, a demonstrator who stood outside a police compound this week. "This government is a dictatorship that came to power by buying votes. Yingluck's supporters are poor. They are uneducated. And they are easily bought." Pavin Chachavalpongpun, an associate professor at Kyoto University's Center for Southeast Asian Studies, said such claims form a pretext that Thaksin's opponents are using in an attempt to seize power. The anti-government protest movement is simply "a minority that is refusing to play the game of electoral politics. They cannot compete with Thaksin, they cannot win elections. So they come up with this discourse of village people being so uneducated they don't know how to vote," Pavin said. "But the reality is, these people [Thaksin supporters] are not stupid. They are politically conscious. They have become awakened." Even if the Shinawatra clan can claim electoral legitimacy, the conflict between the two sides is not black and white. Thaksin, a billionaire who made his fortune in telecommunications during Thailand's late 80s-early 90s boom years, was accused of manipulating government policies to benefit his business empire. His critics charged he was arrogant and intolerant of the press; at one point he went so far as to have cronies try to buy controlling shares in two influential daily newspapers that had criticized him. During his five years in office, Thaksin also came under fire for ham-fisted handling of a Muslim insurgency in southern Thailand, and a particularly brutal "war on drugs" that left 2,300 people dead in 2003. Human rights groups complained police were turned loose to kill drug dealers and users at will. Nevertheless, Thaksin remains hugely popular in Thailand's rural north and northeast and among many of Bangkok's working class for populist polices including subsidized housing and nearly free health care. Opponents dismiss Yingluck as Thaksin's puppet, though for most of her administration she has trod a more careful path than her brother, building a fragile detente with the army and managing to keep a lid on the nation's divisions. But she was damaged by the amnesty bill, by a court ruling rejecting her party's attempts to boost its power in the Senate, and by controversial policies including a rice-buying scheme that the International Monetary Fund has criticized. Suthep told The Associated Press recently that his supporters "feel that if the country continues on this path, it will fall into pieces…. So they come out today to fight for their country and for their children's future." But Suthep's tactics and his demands have riled even some of his own backers. Democrat lawmaker Korn Chatikavanij, a former finance minister, asked last week: "How will this so-called 'people's government' happen? I still can't quite imagine." Thailand's political tensions have played out against a backdrop over fears about the future of its monarchy. Thaksin's critics have accused him of disrespecting ailing King Bhumibol Adulyadej and trying to gain influence with Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, the heir to the throne. Many hope the conflict will ease Thursday, when Bhumibol turns 86. The fear is that any peace will only be temporary. The post Long-Running Societal Divide Fuels Thai Conflict appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

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