The Irrawaddy Magazine

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• ASEAN to Express Concern on South China Sea Tension: Burma Minister
• Nargis’s Number Game
• “Come On! Get Up! We Have to Rebuild the Polling Stations!”
• The Irrawaddy Business Roundup (May 10, 2014)
• ASEAN Faces Renewed Unity Test as South China Sea Tensions Spike
• Lao Dam Troubles Mekong Waters

ASEAN to Express Concern on South China Sea Tension: Burma Minister Posted: 10 May 2014 02:37 AM PDT A traffic policeman stands near ASEAN countries flags displayed for the 24th ASEAN Summit at Naypyidaw May 10, 2014. (Photo: Reuters) Philippines President Benigno Aquino arrives at Naypyidaw airport on Saturday afternoon for the 24th Asean Summit. (Photo: Jpaing/ The Irrawaddy) NAYPYIDAW — Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) chair Burma said the 10-member regional bloc will issue a joint statement calling for restraint over disputes in the South China Sea, after a Chinese oil rig planted close to a disputed island ignited a confrontation between Vietnamese and Chinese naval vessels earlier this week. Burma is hosting its first ever major Asean meeting this weekend, with the former pariah state welcoming regional government leaders and foreign ministers to the 24th Asean Summit in the capital Naypyidaw. Following the foreign ministers meeting on Saturday afternoon and Burma's Foreign Minister Wunna Mg Lwin told a press conference that the ministers had agreed to draft a single joint statement expressing concern over this week's escalation of tensions. "We are concerned about the recent situation in the South China Sea, we urge to both parties to solve this dispute very peacefully," Wunna Mg Lwin said. "We foreign ministers have discussed the South China Sea and reached consensus on a statement." It was not immediately clear when the statement would be released or what its content will be. The Wall Street Journal reported quoted Singaporean Foreign Minister K. Shanmugam as saying the statement would "express our concern at the turn of events, and ask for everyone to act in accordance to international law, including the [United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea]." As host Burma has been immediately forced to address spiraling regional tensions during the 2-day meeting. Asia's most complicated and potentially destabilizing issue spun out of control as Asean member Vietnam and China traded angry accusations following the incident. The South China Sea region has rich fishing ground and oil and gas reserves, and important maritime shipping routes run through it. An increasingly assertive China has become embroiled in territorial disputes with Taiwan and Asean members Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei and Malaysia, which are trying to resist the territorial claims of their powerful northern neighbor. Earlier on Saturday, Burmese government spokesman Ye Htut was reluctant to comment directly on this week's incident, saying only that he expected progress would made on the Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea—a set of rules that would guide maritime conduct between Asean members and China. "Related countries will submit reports on the latest situation to the foreign ministers meeting and also at the summit," he told reporters. "The Declaration of Conduct for the South China Sea is already approved by the Asean leaders, so the Code of Conduct will be discussed in these meetings." "The good thing is that Burma has a very good relationship with China and also with Asean member countries, so we will try to [reach an agreement] on the Code of Conduct very soon," he said. The DoC agreement from the early 2000s states all China-Asean disputes should be resolved peacefully. The regional bloc has, however, made little progress on completing a Code of Conduct agreement with China. Vietnam and the Philippines, the two Asean nations most affected by territorial disputes, have been vocal supporters of the initiative, but China prefers to resolve any dispute bilaterally. In 2013, a Joint Working Group of was formed in which China and Asean would further discuss the CoC. Agreeing on a joint statement on the South China Sea disputes has proven difficult for Asean in the past, as Vietnam and the Philippines have sought a strong-worded statement, while members seen as close to China, such as Laos and Cambodia, want to be careful not to offend to Beijing. Burma's leadership will now be scrutinized for any perceived favoritism towards China. Under the previous military regime, China was Naypyidaw's most important ally, providing diplomatic, economic and military support in return for access to natural resources. Although relations between the two have cooled since a quasi-civilian government took over in 2011, China remains Burma's most important trade partner. Government spokesman Ye Htut said chairman Burma was not under pressure from its northern neighbor to act in its favor over the South China Sea disputes. "China has not tried to influence us on this issue, there is no pressure on us," he said. Asean government leaders will be arriving in Naypyidaw in the course of the day, with the notable exception of Thailand's former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra who was ousted by a Constitutional Court this week, further deepening Thailand's protracted political crisis. The government leaders will meet for the Asean Summit in Naypyidaw's brand new and heavily guarded Myanmar international Convention Center on Sunday. The Asean Parliamentarians meeting and the Asean People's Forum, a meeting of regional civil society groups, is also being held in Naypyidaw this weekend. Burma's democratic transition has been marred by outbursts of anti-Muslim violence and a crisis in Arakan State, where since 2012 Rohingya Muslims have clashed with Arakanese Buddhists. The crisis displaced 140,000 Rohingya and sent tens of thousands fleeing in small boats through the Bay of Bengal in an effort to reach Malaysia. Burma has been criticized over a range of serious rights abuses against the Muslim minority, with Asean members such Indonesia voicing concern over the treatment of the group. Ye Htut said, however, that the issue would not be broached during official discussions. "Our internal conflict involving Bengalis in Rakhine State will not be on the Asean agenda this time. It will be [discussed] during the retreat session. If other country leaders want discuss that issue, we will listen," he said, referring to the Muslim group as "Bengalis." The decision is in keeping with Asean's long-standing policy of non-interference in domestic affairs of members states. Burma joined Asean in 1997 but was passed over for the chairmanship in 2006 due to political repression in the country. After Thein Sein's government introduced political reforms and released Aung San Suu Kyi and thousands of political prisoners, Asean awarded Naypyidaw this year's chairmanship. Burma has declared the theme of its chairmanship—in the penultimate year before the ambitious Asean Economic Community (AEC) is supposed to come into effect—"Moving Forward in Unity to a Peaceful and Prosperous Community." Preparations for the AEC next year will be another key issue on the agenda this weekend. Ye Htut said work on the AEC was "80 percent completed," but noted that significant challenges remained. Ye Htut said Burma's first Asean chairmanship would provide a boost in the country's international standing and bring economic and political benefits to the government as it seeks to implement further reforms. "We can benefit from this summit by gaining political prestige on the world stage. We couldn’t take the chairmanship in 2006 due to the political situation at that time, until the new government started its work," he said. The post ASEAN to Express Concern on South China Sea Tension: Burma Minister appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Nargis’s Number Game Posted: 09 May 2014 08:40 PM PDT Survivors of Cyclone Nargis queue to receive relief supplies from an aid agency in the hardest-hit Irrawaddy delta region of Burma in this picture taken June 5, 2008. (Photo: Reuters) Cyclone Nargis killed at least 138,000 people, but nobody knows for sure exactly how many perished in the storm that struck Burma six years ago. At first the regime announced that only 350 people had died, but later that number rose, with international observers estimating that 200,000 people had been killed. In this commentary from The Irrawaddy archives—originally published on May 22, 2008—the magazine's founder and editor-in-chief Aung Zaw reflects on the tragic numbers game following the cyclone. Finally, Burma’s cyclone victims in the Irrawaddy delta region have been able to mourn their dead. The regime announced three days of official mourning but could offer no assurance that adequate aid is on the way. Cyclone survivors are mourning without food and proper shelter from the rain, often encountering intimidation from armed police and local officials, who ordered them to stop begging for food and to show "discipline" when VIPs call on them. Although it appears that Burmese officials have stopped counting the dead, nearly three weeks after Cyclone Nargis struck, the body count and numbers game aren't over yet. At first the regime, perhaps unaware of the true scale of the disaster, announced 350 people had died. That toll rose in steps, to 10,000, then more than 20,000 and on to 78,000, with 56,000 people listed as missing. When the number of dead reached 130,000 the regime mouthpiece, The New Light of Myanmar, nervously buried the fact on an inside page, reserving the front page for stories and pictures of the generals inspecting refugee camps and handing out aid packages to survivors. Even that official toll is far short of the reliable estimates of international observers and diplomats, who believe more than 200,000 could have died. They say the cyclone struck more than 2 million people in one way or another. But who knows the true figures behind this disaster? Who is counting the dead? There have been no major relief operations in the Irrawaddy delta region, let alone official attempts to rescue survivors and recover the dead. We're reminded of the 1988 uprising, when about 3,000 activists and students were believed to have been gunned down on the streets, while the regime insisted only a few hundred looters were killed. Twenty years on, the real death toll is still unknown. Although the true scale of this month's cyclone disaster is still to be revealed, the regime has issued a bizarre announcement that the first phase of the emergency relief mission is over. Prime Minister Gen. Thein Sein declared: "We have already finished our first phase of emergency relief. We are going on to the second phase, the rebuilding stage." The New Light of Myanmar trumpeted in a headline: "Rehabilitation task goes on with greater momentum." The UN reports that its agencies and partners have been able to reach only about 25 percent of the people affected by the cyclone. But how we do know it is 25 percent? And how could the UN provide sustainable assistance to them? Denied visas and access, UN officials have been trying to deliver aid by remote control from Bangkok or Rangoon. And the UN continues to make one concession after another to junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe. Until now, The New Light of Myanmar, eschewing any informative reports on the plight of the cyclone victims and the impact of the disaster on the region, has been content to carry daily lists of aid and its origin. It paints a rosy picture of how VIPs are "helping" the victims and claims the situation is returning to "normal." Normal? Foreign Ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations must have wished it only were so, after Burma's Foreign Minister Nyan Win told them at a ministerial meeting in Singapore that his country needed US $11.7 billion for rehabilitation and reconstruction. Thailand's Surin Pitsuwan, Asean's secretary-general, spoke for many when he cautioned, after a visit to Rangoon: "How do we know it's $11 billion? How can we be certain?" Surin said: "Accessibility is important to guarantee confidence and verify the damage and needs, otherwise confidence during pledging will be affected." Ahead of a donor conference in Rangoon on Sunday, Human Rights Watch warned donors that before they committed themselves to reconstruction projects they should obtain a commitment from the regime to make a significant contribution of its own. So far the regime has committed US $4.4 million (5 billion kyats)—hardly "significant" from a government that holds an estimated $4 billion in foreign reserves and is thought to collect $150 million monthly in revenues from gas exports. Burma specialist Sean Turnell, of Macquarie University in Australia, posed the question: where is all that money sitting? And he came up with the answer: "What we do know is that it's sitting somewhere where Burmese people can’t get access to it." Turnell added: "Either it's sitting offshore or it's sitting in the accounts of the Myanmar [Burma] Foreign Trade Bank or the Central Bank. But it looks like it's only accessible by Than Shwe and perhaps one or two others; it's not being used for the benefit of the Burmese people, which of course is critical at the moment. This sort of money can do an enormous amount with regard to the cyclone disaster, but it seems to be deliberately withheld." Meanwhile, aid is trickling into Burma, at least at Rangoon's international airport—and at least here the facts are being meticulously recorded. A regime report on Thursday listed the latest arrivals at Rangoon airport: "AN-12 flight carrying 17.12 tons of office equipment, generators, tarpaulin and racks donated by WFP, four C -130 flights carrying about 20 tons of plywood, water bottles, blankets, plastic, nylon ropes, hammers and nails donated by the United State of America, Y 7-100 flight carrying 3 tons of medicines for Laos medical team from Lao PDR, A- 300 flight carrying over 22 tons of foods, cables, medicines and medical equipments donated by KOICA of the Republic of Korea, IL-76 carrying 35.75 tons of water purifiers and related equipment, medicines, tents, foods and plastic donated by Doctors Without Borders of Belgium and IL-76 flight carrying 59.64 tons of construction material and tarpaulin donated by IFRC." Laura Bush, a strong advocate of Burma's democracy movement, stepped in with some numbers, too. The First Lady told Voice of America: "The United States has been very active in trying to help. I think so far about 40 C-130s have landed in Rangoon with supplies for the people of Burma." The impressive numbers of US relief flights to Rangoon also present accounting problems for Lt-Col Douglas Powell, spokesman for the US relief mission at Thailand's Utapao air base. "I think we have 36 flights so far," he said. "Oh… wait a minute, let me check my notebook. Err…we now have 41 flights so far.” The US has also offered dozens of CH-47 helicopters and amphibious vehicles to deliver aid and supplies, but the regime is uninterested. A particularly heartrending statistic is the number of children who died or lost their parents in the cyclone. But even here the numbers are vague. UNICEF estimates that 40 percent of those who died in the cyclone and its aftermath were children. Ramesh Shrestha, UNICEF's representative in Burma, said the number of children left without guardians is more than 600 and could rise. Shrestha admitted to The Associated Press: "We have no idea as to how many there are, but from the bits and pieces that we have, there are more than 600 or 700 unaccompanied minors so far." A volunteer relief worker in the Irrawaddy delta estimated that more than 1,000 children under the age of 13 in Laputta Township alone lost their parents in the cyclone. The British-based charity Save the Children estimates that 30,000 children under the age of five living in the Irrawaddy delta region were already malnourished before the cyclone and warns that thousands of them now face death from starvation. The numbers game continues on Saturday, when the regime resumes its constitutional referendum in the cyclone-hit areas. We can expect ludicrously inflated numbers again, probably matching the statistics dreamed up by the junta after the first session of voting on May 10. Aung Toe, head of the Referendum Holding Committee, said that in the May 10 voting the draft constitution was approved by 92.4 percent of the 22 million eligible voters, and he put the voter turnout at more than 99 percent. The constitution will guarantee 25 percent of parliamentary seats to the military and promises the construction of a "modern, developed and flourishing disciplinary democracy." Aung Toe said a further 5 million citizens are eligible to vote on May 24 in Rangoon and the Irrawaddy delta, the region worst hit by the cyclone. One cyclone survivor Kyi Hla, a 65-year-old grandmother, lost 12 members of her family, including her grandchildren. She is now reunited with three of her sons and five daughters-in-law, while the rest of her family perished in the cyclone and its tidal wave. She related her remarkable survival story in Laputta to an undercover reporter from The Irrawaddy magazine—and, unlike the improbable statistics the regime plucks out of thin air, the numbers contained in her story ring with the deafening resonance of truth. The post Nargis's Number Game appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

“Come On! Get Up! We Have to Rebuild the Polling Stations!” Posted: 09 May 2014 06:24 PM PDT The post “Come On! Get Up! We Have to Rebuild the Polling Stations!” appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

The Irrawaddy Business Roundup (May 10, 2014) Posted: 09 May 2014 06:00 PM PDT Burma Log Export Ban Bites; Smuggling Continues As Burma's ban on the export of logs begins to bite, drawing complaints from overseas consumers, the illegal smuggling of logs across the border with China is continuing, according to Eleven Media. A ban on log exports began last month, but sufficient facilities to process timber in country are not yet set up. Official exports of teak, hardwood and other timber were worth US$947 million in the last financial year, according to Eleven, which ended on March 31. However, the true amount of wood sent abroad before the ban is likely larger. London-based NGO the Environmental Investigation Agency recently alleged that the majority of timber Burma has exported over the past 15 years has been smuggled. A report from Eleven Media last week said that following the ban taking affect, a week of seizures by authorities had claimed more than 1,000 tons of timber that was being illegally moved out of the country. And this week, Eleven reported that although the cost of transporting timber from northern Burma had risen, large trucks full of logs were still making the crossing. "Despite the ban, illegal timber trade continues with smugglers finding new routes through the jungle. Some say that recent fighting between ethnic rebels and the army [has] made it easier to smuggle timber as there are less controls," the report said. It cited local truckers who said Chinese traders would pay 9 million kyat, about $9,000, plus a barrel of oil for a truckload of logs, to cover the costs of smugglers carrying timber across the border. Meanwhile the ban has drawn complaints from those who once bought logs from Burma. Pakistan's The News reported Thursday that the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry had written to Burmese President Thein Sein and other authorities requesting that the log export ban be delayed. The letter reportedly said that the ban had resulted in "intensifying the hardships of those in Pakistan who have been importing this essential raw material regularly for the last five decades." It called for at least a three month delay in the ban, "in order to give some breathing space to Pakistani importers who are unable to cater to local demand," The News reported. Allen & Overy the Latest International Law Firm in Rangoon Leading UK-based law firm Allen & Overy (A&O) has become the latest international law firm to set up an office in Burma, according to thelawyer.com As the Burmese government undertakes political and economic reforms, and foreign investors are invited in, a number of law firms have moved into the commercial capital, Rangoon, to advise companies doing business in Burma. According to a May 6 article on thelawyer.com, a British website for legal professionals, A&O has had lawyers based in Burma for some time, but has only recently opened an office in Rangoon. "A&O's Yangon office provides international legal services and will not practice Myanmar law," the report said. "The new office is managed by Bangkok managing partner Simon Makinson and currently has two associates and two support staff." It said A&O—which is one of the "magic circle" of top London law firms—has already worked with Telenor, the Norwegian telecommunications firm that was one of two foreign companies granted a license to operate mobile phone services in Burma. "It has a close relationship with Myanmar Legal Services, an affiliate of Thai firm Chandler & Thong-ek Law Offices," the report added. A number of foreign law firms, including Singapore's Kelvin Chia Partnership, American firm Herzfeld, Rubin, Meyer & Rose, DFDL and VDB-Loi are already operating in Rangoon. US-based Baker & McKenzie opened its Rangoon office in February and Duane Morris, also from the US, announced in September last year it had moved into the city. Corruption Tops Concerns for Businesses in Burma Corruption, access to skilled labor and technology are the biggest concerns for businesses operating in Burma, according to the results of a survey reported this week by Reuters. According to Reuters, the survey—conducted by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry—questioned more than 3,000 firms about the problems associated with doing business in a reforming Burma. "[T]he survey suggests the reforms have thus far had only a limited impact on corruption," the report said, explaining that about 20 percent of the companies said corruption was a "very severe obstacle." "Access to skilled labor and technology were identified as the second and third biggest obstacles," it said. "Sixty percent of the firms surveyed said they had to pay bribes for registration, licenses or permits. About half the firms said they paid $500 in extra fees while about a dozen said extra fees exceeded $10,000 (5,892 pounds)." The Burmese government passed an anticorruption law last year, and a new anti-graft commission was established in February. But the measures, aimed at tackling the endemic corruption that grew over years of secretive military rule, do not appear to have begun taking effect, and the new commission has already faced criticism since it is made up overwhelmingly of former soldiers. Transparency International's latest Corruption Perceptions Index, published in December, ranked Burma 157 out of 177 countries, a marked improvement on the ranking of 172 out of 176 in 2012. Indonesia's Largest Cement Maker Plans Burma Expansion Massive cement firm Semen Indonesia has agreed to buy a stake in a Burma-based cement company, according to the Jakarta Globe newspaper. A news report May 7 said the company was taking the minority share in an unnamed Burmese company. Semen Indonesia has previously said it plans to spend US$200 million in Burma. "The move is seen as part of the company's efforts to expand its reach in the region ahead of the Asean Economic Community, which is scheduled to be implemented next year," the Jakarta Globe said. The report quoted Semen's President Director Dwi Soetjipto saying the company would take a 30 percent stake in the Burmese company. "The deal is valued at roughly $30 million, Dwi added. He declined to name the company involved in the deal, but mentioned it has an annual production capacity of up to 1.5 million metric tons of cement," the report said. Dwi was also quoted saying, "We are currently establishing an entry point, but will gradually increase our control there in the future." In March, Thailand's Siam Cement Group said it was investing $400 million in a cement plant in Burma, set to be operation in 2016. The post The Irrawaddy Business Roundup (May 10, 2014) appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

ASEAN Faces Renewed Unity Test as South China Sea Tensions Spike Posted: 09 May 2014 06:30 PM PDT Protesters shout as they hold an anti-China banner which reads, "down with China" at a park in front of Chinese embassy in Hanoi on Friday. (Photo: Reuters) NAYPYIDAW— A surge of tensions in the South China Sea threatens to widen divisions between Southeast Asian nations at a summit this weekend, posing a severe test for host Burma as the newly democratic country seeks to manage the region’s growing alarm over China. The routine annual meeting of Southeast Asian leaders has been given a jolt of urgency by a series of collisions this week between Chinese and Vietnamese vessels after China stationed a giant oil rig near the disputed Paracel islands, off Vietnam’s coast. Both sides have blamed the other, and dozens of coastguard and patrol vessels are in the area. Tensions also spiked in another part of the oil- and gas-rich South China Sea, with Beijing demanding that U.S. ally the Philippines release a Chinese fishing boat and its crew seized on Tuesday off Half Moon Shoal in the Spratly Islands. In particular, the unprecedented move by China to plant its drilling rig in Vietnam-claimed waters and guard it with dozens of ships appears likely to dominate discussions at the summit, raising questions over Southeast Asia’s efforts to agree common maritime rules in ongoing talks with Beijing. Burma, whose chairmanship of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) this year marks a coming out on the international stage following the restoration of democracy in 2011, must walk a fine line between preserving ASEAN unity and not upsetting China, its biggest trade partner. Differences within the group are already coming to the surface. Philippine diplomats told Reuters that some states were opposed to issuing a separate statement on the latest South China Sea or mentioning the tensions in the communique. Ian Storey, a security analyst at the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, said the summit in Burma's capital Naypyidaw would be "another test of ASEAN unity." "There will be countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, Singapore and Indonesia that will want to express serious concern at recent developments in the final communique," he said. "Other members will be more wary, seeing the Paracels as a bilateral issue between Vietnam and China," he said. Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand make up the other members of ASEAN, with the first three seen as especially keen to maintain good relations with China. Singapore issued a statement on May 7 expressing concerns about recent developments and repeating previous calls for ASEAN and China to work for an early conclusion of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea – a set of rules governing naval actions. Burma will host two broader regional summits later this year, culminating in the East Asia Summit in November that is attended by the U.S. president as well as the Chinese head of state. It will be keen to avoid a repeat of a disastrous ASEAN summit in 2012 when host Cambodia, a close Chinese ally, attempted to keep the South China Sea row off the agenda, resulting in ASEAN’s failure to issue a joint statement for the first time in 45 years. Tough Balancing Act China says territorial disputes should be discussed on a bilateral basis, but agreed at last year’s summits in Brunei to join talks with ASEAN on framing a Code of Conduct that would govern maritime conduct, with the aim of reducing the likelihood of clashes in the South China Sea. Beijing claims almost the entire sea, and rejects rival claims from Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. The last four are ASEAN members. The United States, which has forged closer security ties with Vietnam in recent years, has declared a national interest in freedom of navigation through the sea and this week called China’s deployment of the oil rig "provocative and unhelpful." China in turn has blamed the United States for stoking tensions. "China will keep talking about the Code of Conduct, as a short term strategy in damage control," says Maung Zarni, a Burmese political academic who is a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics. "But it will likely opt out of anything binding or anything that will restrict its ability to do what it feels to be its historical right – to exploit the South China Sea commercially, build its bases anywhere it deems essential, or disrupt other claimants’ economic and military activities in the area." During decades of isolation, Burma relied on China as its closest diplomatic and military ally. But since Burma began pursuing dramatic reforms, its relationship with China has cooled. "I think Myanmar will withstand Chinese pressure more effectively than Cambodia," said Sean Turnell, associate professor in economics at Macquarie University in Sydney. "There really is a deep-seated loathing of aspects of Chinese commercial activity in Myanmar, and a belief the previous regime had made some bad bargains on energy and other big ticket deals." An official with Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who declined to be identified, said a repeat of the 2012 breakdown was unlikely as Burma had been weaning itself away from Chinese influence in recent years. "It can be seen, although not very clear, that Myanmar has been trying to reduce the influence of China in its country, economically and politically," the official said. Still, Maung Zarni said Burma would likely avoid antagonizing China by pushing for faster progress in concluding a code of conduct. "Myanmar may be more independent than Cambodia," he said. "But it is not independent enough for Naypyidaw to behave in any way that will displease, annoy, irritate or anger Beijing over the South China Sea issue." The post ASEAN Faces Renewed Unity Test as South China Sea Tensions Spike appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

Lao Dam Troubles Mekong Waters Posted: 09 May 2014 05:00 PM PDT Regional efforts to protect Southeast Asia's most important waterway suffer a blow as Laos pushes ahead with plans to build a new hydropower dam. BANGKOK — Being landlocked and poor has always placed Laos at a disadvantage to its more powerful neighbors. The only body of water that offers Vientiane an international reach is the Mekong River, which flows through the heartland of Southeast Asia. Now, that river, which laps the western fringes of the capital Vientiane, has become the staging ground for Laos to flex its diplomatic muscles. The secretive communist party that runs the country is even prepared to stand up to the region's other, more powerful and wealthier communist-dominated regime—Vietnam. An April summit of the four riparian countries that share the Mekong—Cambodia and Thailand, in addition to Laos and Vietnam—exposed the tension that has surfaced between these communist twins. Like Vietnam, Cambodia is also at odds with Laos over its determination to push ahead with plans for a new dam where the Mekong snakes through southern Laos, just over a mile from the Laos-Cambodian border. "Though already being informed by the Lao side that work on the project will be started by the end of this year, both the Vietnamese and Cambodian sides have agreed that Laos should comply with the 1995 MRC [Mekong River Commission] Agreement," Nguyen Minh Quang, Vietnam's minister of natural resources and environment, said at the closing press conference of the Second Mekong River Commission Summit, held in Ho Chi Minh City in April. "We [Vietnam and Cambodia] also recommend that Laos only begin work on the project after new rules come into effect." This is not the first time that Hanoi has been in such a huff with Laos over plans to build on the Mekong. Before the current project—the 260-megawatt Don Sahong Dam—became a cause for concern, the Vietnamese government expressed disapproval over the much larger Xayaburi dam, a 1,260-megawatt project being built on the river's mainstream in northern Laos. In fact, a January meeting of the four member countries of the Mekong River Commission (MRC) found Laos cornered, with even Thailand expressing reservations about the Don Sahong Dam. Nevertheless, Laos appears determined to forge ahead with the project by skirting around binding MRC agreements, including the one alluded to by the Vietnamese minister, which requires "prior consultation" and regional agreement on dams that could impact the Mekong's flow. "At the moment there is no consensus on the Don Sahong Dam, because three countries require the project to be subject to prior consultation since they have raised concerns about its impact," Surasak Glahan, spokesman for the Vientiane-based MRC, told The Irrawaddy. "Laos says prior consultation is not necessary because the volume of water that will be impacted by the dam will be small." Laos has stuck to this view since October, when it formally notified the MRC that it will proceed with the dam. Viraphonh Viravong, Laos' deputy minister of energy and mines, declared at the time that it would not breach the 1995 agreement because the dam is not being built on the Mekong mainstream, but on one of the 17 channels in the Siphandone stretch, where the water flow through the channel accounts for only five per cent of the river's flow. Such a unilateral view ignores the case advanced by Vietnam about the dire consequences its rice bowl—the Mekong Delta—could face if dams are constructed on the mainstream. The flow of sediment down the Mekong into the delta is crucial for the 20 million people who live there. Nearly 90 percent of the rice Vietnam exports is grown in the delta. Loss of sediments from the Mekong exposes this 15,400-square-mile (40,000-square-km) flat, marshy terrain to saltwater erosion from the mouth of the river, which faces the South China Sea. Cambodia, meanwhile, views the Don Sahong Dam as a threat to its much-needed fish stocks. A barrier on the only channel, the Hou Sahong, that is the chosen route for fish all year would impact migration, feeding and breeding, "creating trans-boundary impacts," notes the NGO Forum on Cambodia. It is a loss that would affect the diets of Cambodians, given that fish and aquatic resources provide for "76 percent of animal intake, 37 percent of protein intake, 37 percent of iron intake and 28 percent of fats intake of the Cambodian population," according to a 2013 study by the Cambodian Fisheries Administration, a government agency. These Cambodians are among some 65 million poor people across all four countries depending on the Mekong for their sustenance. The river's reputation as the world's biggest and most productive inland fisheries waterway also makes it a money spinner. And between US$2.2 billion and $3.9 billion worth of fish is harvested from the river each year, accounting for nearly one-fourth of the world's annual catch. No wonder, then, that environmentalists are perturbed: Laos' readiness to sink agreements with its neighbors over a shared international river demonstrates that national interests are still winning out over wider concerns. "This is a test of regional cooperation and it is failing," Ame Trandem, Southeast Asia program director for International Rivers, a global environmental campaigner, said in an interview. "Laos is setting a very bad precedent about how to ignore the 1995 agreement." Activists fear the worst for the nearly 3,100-mile-long (5,000-km-long) river, which begins its journey in the Tibetan plateau, roars through southern China and touches Myanmar before heading south through the Mekong Basin. Laos, after all, has set its sights on building nine dams on the Mekong's mainstream in its quest to become an exporter of hydropower to neighbors like Thailand. Vientiane's ambition to become the "battery of Southeast Asia" has been defended for economic and development reasons: The millions of dollars in foreign exchange it will generate will help raise the living standards of the third of its nearly six million population still mired in poverty. And its defiance on the diplomatic front has been attributed to the growing influence of China, which has already built four mega-dams out of a planned eight with little consideration (and no prior consultations) for downstream countries. But this go-it-alone approach is coming at the cost of Laos' "special relationship" with Vietnam, forged after US troops were defeated in the Vietnam War, and cemented by a 1977 treaty of friendship and cooperation. For nearly three decades, Vietnam was a dominant presence in Laos, leading the way with foreign investment. But as China and Thailand step up their economic presence in the country, the influence of Vientiane's ideological big brother appears to be waning—with consequences that could be disastrous for Vietnam's rice exports, and for the region's main waterway. This article first appeared in The Irrawaddy's May 2014 print edition. The post Lao Dam Troubles Mekong Waters appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine.

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