The Irrawaddy Magazine |
| Posted: 19 Dec 2014 04:30 PM PST  Young people from Asean gathered to hear US President Barack Obama deliver a message of encouragement at a town hall-style meeting in Rangoon on Nov. 14, 2014. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — The legacy of 2014 will shape the year ahead. After many ups and downs—more downs than ups—this year, it appears likely that many of the high hopes we had for 2015 will not eventuate. This is not encouraging, but it's realistic. As usual, Myanmar people will hope for the best but be prepared for the worst—an outlook they have grown accustomed to over generations. Next year will be crucial for Myanmar with the general election scheduled to be held later in the year. The result, if the election is held as scheduled, will determine whether Myanmar turns a new page or reverts to the status-quo. We still can't say for sure whether the election will be free and fair. But judging by the current state of political affairs, the people of Myanmar are highly unlikely to see come to fruition what they have dreamt of for decades—a free, prosperous and democratic society. Today Myanmar is recovering after almost 50 years under one of the world's most repressive regimes which lasted from 1962 until 2011. But it remains in old hands. President U Thein Sein is no longer a general but he was one of the highest ranking members of the former junta. Most of his cabinet members are current or former military officials. In Myanmar's new political order, the military retains its stranglehold over the executive and legislative arms of government. The international community is convinced that Myanmar is marching toward democracy. But the majority of locals share a different view. For them, the country is travelling toward the "Burmese way to democracy," much like the "Burmese way to Socialism" that the late dictator Gen. Ne Win introduced in the 1960s. Snr.-Gen Than Shwe, who is the architect of the current reform process, called it "discipline-flourishing democracy." President U Thein Sein, his successor, has evolved the rhetoric to suit international expectations, emphasizing the country's progression towards "democracy." What seems clear in all these conceptions is that the military retains its powerful political position. The military-drafted, undemocratic 2008 Constitution helps safeguard the military's political preeminence. Any proposed amendments which would undermine their central role will not be achieved without a fight. Faced with mighty resistance from the establishment, attempts by opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and other pro-democracy groups to amend the Constitution over the past three years have been in vain. They are losing the political battle. The main task of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), which won 43 of 44 seats contested in 2012 by-elections, was to amend the Constitution ahead of the 2015 election. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and her supporters had hoped to amend undemocratic clauses, including article 59(f) which bars her from being president because her two sons are foreigners.  Kyaw Zwa Moe is editor (English Edition) of These hopes now appear all but dashed. In November, lower house speaker Thura Shwe Mann, himself a former powerful military general, stated publicly that constitutional amendments would only be possible after the 2015 election. In other words, the year 2015 won't see Daw Aung San Suu Kyi become president even if her NLD party wins by a landslide in the election. In that scenario, the opposition leader doesn't seem to have a plan B as to whom else within her party could take the lead. We haven't yet seen any qualified candidate emerge. Opposition groups in general have never been in a position of ascendancy in this political game with the ex-junta and the current nominally-civilian government. They have all been forced to compete and cooperate within a political framework designed by successive military governments. Quite simply, at present, the military government is as strong as ever while the opposition remains weak—having been curtailed by the government, the military and the ruling party at every turn. That's one of the reasons for the international community's policy shifts over recent years. They are convinced that the current power holders constitute the only institutions that can change the country. Many western countries are now working to coax the three key power bases, government, military and parliaments, towards gradual change. It's not exactly an easy task. Imagine if they can persuade the military to reform itself into a professional force, return to barracks and quit its current roles in Parliament and in the ministries. We can imagine—but clearly this is not the military's aim or intention. A basic principle of the Constitution's first chapter clearly states that the country's abiding objectives include enabling the defense services to participate in national political leadership. Myanmar's military has never been fit to govern, but the country has had consecutive military leaders since the 1962 coup. If the military returned to the barracks, Myanmar might achieve something like normalcy. But this is unlikely to happen over the next decade. Meanwhile, under this military-dominated leadership, attaining peace with ethnic armed groups is proving difficult. On Nov. 19, the government's troops fired on an area near the headquarters of the Kachin Independence Army, killing 23 rebel cadets and injuring 20 more in northern Kachin State. Given such a hostile attack, little ameliorated by the army's subsequent apology, the peace process between the government and ethnic armed groups looks set to go nowhere in the near future. For the peace process to work, trust has to be built. At this point, many ethnic leaders do not seem to trust either the military-dominated government or the military itself which has long stifled their desires for autonomy. President U Thein Sein, leaders of the military and house speakers recently held an unprecedented meeting with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and a few other political leaders. But the gathering clearly wasn't the dialogue many wanted. Critics saw the meeting as a show-off exercise ahead of US President Barack Obama's second visit in November. For people on the ground, economic reforms have delivered little so far. Former power structures remain largely intact. Military-owned companies and cronies still monopolize the most lucrative industries. Business concessions are still not transparent. Still, we have to admit that today Myanmar has more room for all stakeholders than under the former military regime. It is something. At the same time, we know well that the reform process in 2014 no longer looks as promising as hoped. As Daw Aung San Suu Kyi said in early November, "this reform process started stalling early last year.'' Myanmar people do not expect miracles from the reform process that started in 2011. They just want to see gradual, genuine progress toward a democratic and prosperous nation. Such progress was lacking during 2014. When the people of this country suffered from oppression for decades under the former ruthless military dictatorship, hope was kept alive by the philosophy that everything is impermanent. The unfinished struggle for a just society will carry on in 2015.
Kyaw Zwa Moe is the editor of the English-language edition of The Irrawaddy. This article first appeared in the December issue of The Irrawaddy magazine. The post The Shape of Things to Come appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine. |
| The Irrawaddy Business Roundup (Dec. 20, 2014) Posted: 19 Dec 2014 04:00 PM PST Labor Rights Improve in Burma but Deteriorate in Thailand: Survey Thailand has suffered one of the world's worst declines in human rights in 2014, especially when it comes to Burmese migrant workers. An annual survey of 198 countries by business risk analysts Verisk Maplecroft places Thailand in the top ten most "extreme risk" economies—alongside North Korea, Afghanistan, Pakistan and civil-war torn Ukraine. Burma is also still ranked as an extreme risk but has made improvements and drops out of the worst top ten, the Human Rights Risk Atlas 2015 said. "Human rights risk remains extreme [in Burma] due to working conditions that fall below regional and international standards," Verisk Maplecroft said. "Nevertheless, [Burma] has demonstrated progress in improving human rights protections. Reflecting a commitment to improve governance and address labor rights violations, the government has been working closely with the International Labour Organization to combat forced labour." Verisk Maplecroft's separate Political Risk Atlas 2015 has meanwhile taken Burma out of the "extreme risk" category for the first time since 2008, but says that a continuing concern for foreign investors is the military control over the reform process. The Human Rights Risk Atlas 2015 said it "attributes violations committed by state security forces against opposition groups following the May 2014 military coup as a key driver of Thailand's downgraded position." An unverified number of legal and illegal economic migrants work in Thailand, estimated by various agencies to be between 2-4 million, and most of them are Burmese. Tens of thousands of Cambodian workers left the country after the coup, alleging harassment by the Army. British human rights activist Andy Hall faces charges of criminal defamation in Thailand brought by fruit juice exporter Natural Fruit. He wrote a report alleging the firm commits violence against employees, enforces overtime, uses child labor and confiscates Burmese passports to prevent workers leaving. Hall faces up to seven years imprisonment under Thai law if found guilty. Surge in Tourist Numbers 'Poses Quality of Service Problems' The sharp increase in the number of tourists visiting Burma may be undermining the quality of service visitors receive, an industry report said. The Myanmar Tourism Federation has estimated that 2014 may have hit a record number of 3 million visitors. But regional tourism industry newspaper TTR Weekly there was signs that the rapid growth in tourism is "having a negative impact on service delivery and causing prices to rise to a level that increased complaints." Visitor numbers have surged from approximately 300,000 tourists in 2009, putting a strain on sector services, said TTR Weekly. Tourism has become a major revenue stream, rising from US$534 million generated in the 2011-12 financial year to an expected US$905 million in this current financial year, said the paper. "The Ministry of Hotels and Tourism is drafting a tourism development plan and tourism is a priority sector in the export strategy of the Ministry of Commerce," TTR Weekly said. Natural Gas Export Revenues Increase by 22% National income from natural gas exports has increased by US$585 million in this financial year up to the end of November, Burma's Ministry of Commerce said. The rise is 22 percent more than for the same period of the 2013-2014 financial year. Total income from gas exports in the April-November period was US$2.64 billion, said Myanmar Business today quoting ministry figures. "[Burma] exports its natural gas to neighbouring Thailand and China. Gas exports to Thailand started in 1999, and have since grown to consume 70% of the total production," the report said. Despite the higher export sales, more gas is being funnelled into domestic use, the ministry said. This includes an increase in the number of roadside stations supplying natural gas vehicles to 45, most of them in Rangoon Division. There are more than 27,700 registered natural gas-fuelled vehicles in the country, of which 26,835 are based in greater Rangoon, ministry figures showed. EU Gives Burma US$860 Million to Boost Farming, Health, Education The European Union has made a grant of 700 million euros (US$860 million) for "initiatives for the benefit of all people". The money, to be provided in tranches up to 2020, is primarily aimed at improving lives in rural Burma as well as "peace building" processes. "The EU wants its funding to develop rural areas and support agriculture including improving food supplies, nutrition, while also providing support for education, good governance, and the rule of law," the EU Bulletin said, quoting an unnamed Brussels official. Brussels said Burma would receive the funding from the end of 2014 to 2020 for efforts to stabilize the country's economy and promote peace agreements between ethnic armed groups and the Burmese government. Burmese Tourism Firm Plans Thailand Exchange Listing A Burmese tourism industry company is reportedly planning to list on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). The listing, to raise funds for expansion, will be possible after new rules for the SET to provide easier access for foreign firms are introduced next February, the Bangkok Post said. The Burmese firm, which was not named, is being advised by Bangkok-based Twin Pine Consulting, the Post said. It is expected to have a "market capitalisation of 10 billion baht (US$303 million). "As a firm focusing on capital market development among GMS [Greater Mekong Sub-region] countries, we look for opportunities on cross border fund raising, and [Burma] is in our plan," Twin Pine's Laorpan Wangitthi told The Irrawaddy. However, the Twin Pine declined to name any Burmese firms. Relaxation of SET rules for foreign businesses is part of the Thai finance ministry's plans to make Thailand a regional center for fund raising, the Post said. The post The Irrawaddy Business Roundup (Dec. 20, 2014) appeared first on The Irrawaddy Magazine. |
| You are subscribed to email updates from The Irrawaddy Magazine To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.