The Irrawaddy Magazine

---

• After Tense Standoff, Student Protesters Allowed Passage Through Taung Tha
• Journalists Lament Lack of Access Despite Military Pledge
• Mandalay Division Authorities Lift Blockade on Student March
• Army Reportedly Offers Money to Families of Murdered Teachers
• Explosion Injures Two in Hpakant
• “Oh dear, I wish this quiz was multiple choice!”
• Police Gearing Up for Confrontation with Student Marchers in Taung Tha
• Herder Kills Himself in Inner Mongolia over Land Grab
• China’s Shadow Looms Large Over Obama Visit to India
• Ex-Thai PM’s Party Promises Calm Following Indictment
• Burma ‘Not Ready’ for Asean Single Market by End of 2015

After Tense Standoff, Student Protesters Allowed Passage Through Taung Tha Posted: 27 Jan 2015 05:49 AM PST Student demonstrators marching to Taung Tha on Tuesday. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy) TAUNG THA, Mandalay Division — A government minister will meet with student demonstrators marching from Mandalay to Rangoon to protest the National Education Law, according to a student leader. Nanda Sint Aung told The Irrawaddy that Wednesday's meeting plans with Aung Min, a Minister of the President's Office and chair of the Myanmar Peace Center, resulted from negotiations between authorities in Taung Tha and the demonstrators, who had earlier encountered a police blockade at the entrance to the township. "We have planned a meeting with U Aung Min in Naypyidaw tomorrow at 9am," Nanda Sint Aung said on Tuesday evening. "We will discuss our 11-point request with him. You could say it may in fact be a preliminary meeting for the four-party talks we have also demanded." Tensions rose earlier in the day near Taung Tha Township when about 100 policemen took up positions to block some 500 students from continuing their march between Mandalay and Rangoon from Myingyan Township on Tuesday. The demonstrators were allowed passage through Taung Tha Township on Tuesday evening after negotiations with local authorities. A local official told The Irrawaddy that the students were allowed to proceed after an official order from Ye Myint, the Chief Minister of Mandalay Division. "We thanked authorities for letting us pass through Taung Tha. We are just peaceful demonstrators asking for our rights," said one of the protesters. During the standoff, crowds of supporters had travelled from Myingyan and surrounding villages to bolster the ranks of the demonstrators. Once news spread that the last police barricade to the township's entrance had been lifted, the demonstrators' numbers were swelled by hundreds of local supporters. The tense atmosphere eased as people poured into the streets to greet protesters, and fellow students from the neighboring towns of Yenanchaung and Kyaukpadaung came to show solidarity with the marchers. "We were really worried for them when we heard about a possible confrontation with the police this morning," said one Taung Tha resident who was waiting for the students. "Now I'm glad to hear that they have settled things." The students will spend the evening at Taung Tha before resuming their journey on Wednesday morning. The post After Tense Standoff, Student Protesters Allowed Passage Through Taung Tha appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Journalists Lament Lack of Access Despite Military Pledge Posted: 27 Jan 2015 05:39 AM PST Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing holds a meeting with members of Burma's Interim Press Council in Naypyidaw in October. (Photo: Interim Press Council) RANGOON — More than three months since the Burma Army vowed to make itself more available to members of the media, journalists are expressing frustration that the promise remains unfulfilled to date. Following a mid-October meeting between Burma Army commander in chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and members of the Interim Press Council, three generals were named to serve as press liaisons. Contact information for the three men was never provided, however, and at a second meeting in November, the Press Council was told that the Defense Ministry's Department of Public Relations and Psychological Warfare would instead be tasked with handling media relations. An email address to which journalists could direct inquiries would be set up, the military said, though no address has yet been made public. In the absence of a Burma Army spokesperson, the Press Council has been collecting contact information from private media outlets with the aim of creating a mailing list to which the Burma Army can send official statements. "We haven't got any contacts [from the military] yet," said Thiha Saw, a Press Council spokesman. "According to a decision made at the last meeting, they will give us information on their terms. It's one-sided; we can't question them back. When we asked for an email contact, they said they are not ready yet. "We would like an official department that would release official statements—a place that we could reach out to when something happens so that they can respond," Thiha Saw added. The last year has seen modest but nonetheless unprecedented military engagement with Burma's fledgling press corps, including a first-ever press conference held by Min Aung Hlaing and official responses to two tragedies in which the Burma Army was implicated. The Burma Army used the Press Council to disseminate three statements related to two incidents: the October death of the journalist Par Gyi while in military custody, and the deadly shelling of a Kachin Independence Army (KIA) post on Nov. 19. But critics have pointed out that the Par Gyi communique came 19 days after he was killed. In the Kachin incident, the Burma Army provided a response one day later. The military has thus far been silent in the wake of the killing of two Kachin schoolteachers last week, amid allegations of Burma Army involvement. "It's not that we cannot contact them at all," Thiha Saw said. "There are some who will talk informally. … It's irritating for us but there's nothing we can do." Burmese writer and editor Ma Thida (San Chaung) said the military's approach to media relations lacked transparency and reflected a propagandistic mindset. "Without making contact directly, but instead through a particular group … that access to information is not equal. … We are in a situation where we can only report the news they provide," said Ma Thida, cofounder of PEN Myanmar, the local chapter of an international writers advocacy group. In the case of the slain journalist Par Gyi, the private interests of the Press Council's general secretary Kyaw Min Swe benefited from the military's preferred means of communicating to the media: The editor-in-chief of The Voice, a popular daily, broke the news of Par Gyi's death in his Burmese-language publication the day after members of the Press Council received the information from an unnamed Burma Army source. Ma Thida said the military should make multiple levels of its personnel available for press inquiries, rather than directing all inquiries to only a few designated liaisons. "For example, what is happening now in Kachin [State]: The voices from officers on the ground are not reachable," she said. "What they are doing right now doesn't seem like they are trying to get in touch with media, but instead are propagandizing through the Press Council." Shwe Hmone, a senior reporter from the Union Journal, said most of her outlet's military-related reporting was suffering from the dearth of official access. "Until we can get direct contact with the military, our reporting will never be OK," she said. "In our opinion, there should be a military department that can answer our questions, a phone that will be on 24-hour standby. Only then can we report both sides of a story in a timely way." The post Journalists Lament Lack of Access Despite Military Pledge appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Mandalay Division Authorities Lift Blockade on Student March Posted: 27 Jan 2015 03:12 AM PST Student leaders negotiate with local authorities near Nan Myint village to gain passage through Mandalay's Taung Tha Township on Tuesday afternoon. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawadddy) Some 500 of students marching from Mandalay to Rangoon were allowed to pass through southwestern Mandalay Division's Taung Tha Township on Tuesday evening after they held negotiations with local authorities. A local official told The Irrawaddy that the students were allowed to march on upon the order from Mandalay's Chief Minister Ye Myint. Tensions rose earlier in the day when about 100 policemen took up positions to block students, who are protesting against the National Education Law, from resuming their march between Mandalay and Rangoon from Myingyan Township this morning. Taung Tha is infamous as the stronghold of Aung Thaung, a senior leader from the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party, and many of the villages in the area are strong supporters of the party. The post Mandalay Division Authorities Lift Blockade on Student March appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Army Reportedly Offers Money to Families of Murdered Teachers Posted: 27 Jan 2015 03:04 AM PST Kachin Baptist Convention members and residents of Myitkyina, Kachin State, carry the coffins of the two murder schoolteachers on Jan. 22. (Photo: KBC/Facebook) RANGOON — Burma Army officers in northern Shan State offered money to the families of two ethnic Kachin schoolteachers who were found murdered near the border town of Muse last week, a member of a Christian Kachin organization has said. Tu Jha, a leader of the Kachin Baptist Convention (KBC) in Kutkai Township, said two army officers from Light Infantry Battalion 503 met with family members of the victims during a prayer ceremony held on Monday at Kaung Kha village, where the young women were killed. "They were sitting with us at the ceremony for the whole time yesterday. One was tactical commander Tun Naing Oo and another is his junior officer. They told us they were sad about the deaths of the victims and showed support to the families," he said. "They told the families that they wanted to help and offered money, but the families refused to take it." Tu Jha said the families would leave the decision on whether to accept the money up to KBC, for which the two teachers had been volunteering. Some 2,000 people attended the ceremony on Monday for Maram Lu Ra and Tangbau Hkawn Nan Tsin, both 20 years old, who were killed on Jan. 19. Their bodies were found in their shared dormitory in Kaung Kha village, on Jan. 20. They were buried on Thursday in Myitkyina, the Kachin State capital, after an autopsy was carried out at Muse Hospital. Sources inside the hospital told The Irrawaddy last week that doctors had determined both victims were raped. The autopsy report has yet to be made public. A Kachin community leader from Kutkai Township, who declined to be named, said he had seen the officers offer the families "a pack of money" worth several thousand dollars. Family members confirmed with BBC Burmese earlier on Tuesday that the military had offered them money. He said he heard that local army commanders had initially pressured the local community into keeping silent about the case, but this changed after the army's Northern Command ordered local officers to investigate the possible involvement of soldiers. KBC sources have said that authorities were investigating the case under Section 302 and Section 376 of Burma's penal code, covering murder and rape, respectively. Locals and Kachin activists have alleged that the murders coincided with an increased Burma Army troop presence in the area, fueling speculation that a soldier or soldiers were behind the crime. The grisly murders have caused a public outcry and raised tensions between Kachin ethnic communities and the army, which has long been accused of carrying out abuses and sexual violence against minority communities. Shan State police have said they are investigating the case and found hair samples at the crime scene that they were DNA testing for a match with 20 soldiers stationed in the area at the time of the murder. Aung Nang, a Kaung Kha village leader, said a special investigation team arrived in the area on Tuesday and had questioned ten villagers, including elders and youths, while also questioning 20 soldiers from Light Infantry Battalion 503. The Burma Amy has no known spokespersons and could not be reached for comment. The post Army Reportedly Offers Money to Families of Murdered Teachers appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Explosion Injures Two in Hpakant Posted: 27 Jan 2015 02:56 AM PST A view of the jade mining district in Hpakant Township, Kachin State. (Photo: Saw Yan Naing / The Irrawaddy) Tensions remain high in Kachin State's Hpakant Township after a bomb exploded in the town on Monday, injuring two people, according to local sources. The explosion occurred outside the Jade City Hotel, a well-known hotel in the downtown area of Hpakant, located near a military base of the Burma Army's Light Infantry Division (LID) 66. Shwe Thein, head of the Hpakant branch office of the National League for Democracy (NLD), told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday that local residents are living in fear following the blast on Monday evening. "The bomb went off around 6 pm," he said. "It injured two people but no one died. Burma Army [soldiers] and police were deployed in the town. They formed an emergency checkpoint at the entrance to Hpakant town and searched everyone who entered." Recent fighting between government troops and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) that broke out in the township on Jan. 15 forced up to 2,000 people to flee their homes, with many taking shelter in local churches. Local residents are fearful that renewed fighting could erupt at any time. "We have to be on alert since the fighting broke out in Hpakant [on Jan. 15]. We live in worry," Shwe Thein said. The NLD official added that mining companies involved in the region's lucrative jade industry were continuing to operate despite the instability, with Burma Army troops and police providing security. Reverend Lama Yaw of the Kachin Baptist Convention (KBC) told The Irrawaddy that the two men injured in Monday's explosion were father and son. "The bomb hit an old man and his son. We don't know who is behind the explosion. But we also don't think it will be disclosed," Lama Yaw said. On Jan. 15, a drive-by bombing involving an unknown motorcyclist at a police station in Lone Kin village, Hpakant Township, injured four family members of a police officer. Local relief groups continue to voice concern for hundreds of villagers displaced in Hpakant with limited access to food, water and medical supplies. Some local sources have accused the military of using trapped villagers as human shields and forcibly conscripting some men into the Burma Army. "We heard some 80 villagers, all men, were forced to go with Burma Army troops when they attacked the KIA recently," Zua Naw of Tat Kaung Church in Myitkyina told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday. Fresh fighting between Burma Army troops and allied forces of the KIA and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) also occurred in northern Shan State's Namkham and Kutkai townships over the past few days, according to rebel sources. TNLA spokesperson Mai Aie Kyaw confirmed to The Irrawaddy that fighting had broken out on Sunday and continued sporadically until noon on Tuesday. Mai Aie Kyaw said government troops attacked TNLA forces when the latter group attempted to destroy a poppy plantation in an area of Namkham Township controlled by the Pansay militia, an influential local militia led by Kyaw Myint, a state-level parliamentarian from the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). According to the TNLA's information department, fighting in Namkham Township on Tuesday began around 8 am between TNLA Battalion 478 and Burma Army units from LID 88. No causalities have yet been reported. The KIA and the TNLA are the only two major ethnic armed groups that have not signed ceasefire agreements with the Burmese government. The post Explosion Injures Two in Hpakant appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

“Oh dear, I wish this quiz was multiple choice!” Posted: 27 Jan 2015 12:14 AM PST The post “Oh dear, I wish this quiz was multiple choice!” appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Police Gearing Up for Confrontation with Student Marchers in Taung Tha Posted: 26 Jan 2015 10:48 PM PST Security forces block the entrance to Taung Tha on Tuesday morning. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy) MYINGYAN, Mandalay Division — Police have taken up positions to block students protesting the National Education Law from resuming their march between Mandalay and Rangoon from Myingyan this morning. About 100 police officers were deployed on Tuesday morning at the entrance of Taung Tha Township, Mandalay Division, setting the stage for a confrontation with at least 500 marchers who at 9am began the 24-kilometer (15-mile) journey from Myingyan. Some of the officers are in riot gear and two fire engines have been deployed behind barricades. "We are ordered to come here," a police officer behind the barricade told The Irrawaddy, refusing to elaborate further on the situation. Typically, only trucks and highway buses are allowed to pass through the entrance into Taung Tha after thorough inspections by police, while private cars and motorcycles are prohibited from travelling through the township. Since the march began a week ago, students have not encountered any serious obstacles to their 638-kilometer (400-mile) march to Rangoon, apart from verbal warnings that the demonstration was illegal and participants may be subject to prosecutions under Article 19 of the Peaceful Assembly Law. On Tuesday, state media reported that some students would be charged for violating the State Flag Law, after some of the marchers hoisted the flying peacock flag used by student groups at Myingyan College on Monday afternoon. Concerns have been circulated amongst the protesters about the potential consequences of routing the march through Taung Tha. 131 kilometers (80 miles) southwest of Mandalay, Taung Tha is infamous as the stronghold of Aung Thaung, a senior leader from the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), who was added to the United States Treasury's economic sanctions list last year for "undermining political and economic reforms." Many of the villages in the area are strong supporters of the USDP. Aung Thaung has been accused of involvement with Swan Arshin, an organized group of hired thugs widely believed to have been deployed during times of unrest, including the 2003 Depayin massacre, during which National League of Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's convoy was assaulted and dozens of her supporters were killed, and the aftermath of the 2007 Saffron Revolution, which saw a crackdown on thousands of monks. Most recently, Swan Arshin has been accused of involvement in anti-Muslim riots that have rattled the country since mid-2012. The students are expected to reach the outskirts of Taung Tha early on Tuesday afternoon. The post Police Gearing Up for Confrontation with Student Marchers in Taung Tha appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Herder Kills Himself in Inner Mongolia over Land Grab Posted: 26 Jan 2015 10:24 PM PST An ethnic Mongol herds a flock of sheep on the grasslands of Right Ujumchin Banner in the northern Chinese region of Inner Mongolia, September 6, 2012. (Photo: Reuters) BEIJING — A herder from northern China's Inner Mongolia who had been protesting the government's occupation of traditional grazing land has hanged himself outside a government building, a relative and an overseas rights group said. The suicide adds to evidence that tensions are deepening in Inner Mongolia, where minority ethnic Mongolians are demanding better protection of their lands, rights and traditions. Tumur, 45, from Abag Banner, hanged himself last week outside the Sum Government building gate in protest of the authorities' illegal occupation of his grazing land, the Southern Mongolian Human Rights Information Center (SMHRIC) said in a statement on Monday night. One of Tumur's relatives, reached by telephone, confirmed his death to Reuters but declined to provide further details. "A lot of people in the villages, including his relatives, have been warned not to reveal information about this (Tumur's death)," Enghebatu Togochog of SMHRIC told Reuters. Tumur had been petitioning the local government for years for the return of his grazing land, illegally occupied during an initiative to "help the poor," the SMHRIC said. The director of the Secretariat of the Xilingol government denied Tumur's suicide. Xilingol administers Abag Banner. Ethnic Mongolians, who make up less than 20 percent of Inner Mongolia's 24 million population, say their grazing lands have been ruined by mining and desertification and that the government has tried to resettle them in permanent houses. Inner Mongolia is supposed to enjoy a high degree of self-rule, but Mongolians say the Han Chinese majority has been the main beneficiary of economic development. Inner Mongolia, which covers more than a 10th of China's land mass and has the country's largest coal reserves, was rocked by protests in 2011 after an ethnic Mongol herder was killed by a truck after taking part in protests against pollution caused by a coal mine. On Monday, some 300 Mongolian herders protested outside a government building in the capital, Hohhot, calling for authorities to return their land, SMHRIC said. The post Herder Kills Himself in Inner Mongolia over Land Grab appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

China’s Shadow Looms Large Over Obama Visit to India Posted: 26 Jan 2015 09:02 PM PST India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, left, and US President Barack Obama watch India's Republic Day parade from behind rain streaked bullet proof glass in New Delhi on Jan. 26, 2015. (Photo: Reuters) NEW DELHI — As US President Barack Obama and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met in New Delhi this week, the shadow of a third player hung over the talks: neighboring China, which has complicated relationships with both the United States and India. To Obama, forging deeper ties with India fits in neatly with his efforts to deepen US influence in countries on China's doorstep. And as the world's largest democracy, India is a particularly attractive partner to the United States as it seeks to cultivate a robust regional counterbalance to communist China. India and China are ostensibly allies, and Modi warmly welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping to New Delhi last year. But India is also worried about China's maneuvering in the region—particularly in the Indian Ocean and at the Himalayan border between the two countries—and sees fostering improved relations with the United States as key to bolstering its own defense posture. "There is a triangular game in play from Delhi's point of view," said Ashley Tellis, a South Asia expert at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Modi wants "all of the benefits that come from being seen as working in close collaboration with the United States," including access to American technology, expertise and military cooperation, said Tellis. The United States and India have each cast Obama's three-day visit to New Delhi as a symbol of their efforts to strengthen a relationship that has been plagued by tension and suspicion. Obama is the first US leader to visit India twice as president, and the first to be honored as the chief guest at India's annual Republic Day parade. Obama and Modi sat side-by-side Monday in a glass-enclosed viewing box as Indian tanks and rocket launchers rolled by and fighter jets sped across the sky overhead. The president later convened a meeting of US and Indian business executives, a gathering aimed at bolstering economic cooperation between the two countries. Obama's trip didn't go unnoticed in China, where foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said US-India relations "could promote mutual trust and cooperation in the region." But the state-run news agency Xinhua dismissed Obama's visit as "more symbolic than pragmatic, given the long-standing division between the two giants, which may be as huge as the distance between them." Commentary in China's government-controlled media is frequently used as a means of criticizing or casting doubt on the diplomatic moves of other countries. When asked about the Chinese take, Obama's deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes said, "It's notable that they should feel like they have to go out of their way to comment on this visit." The subtle jab underscored the complexity of the dynamic between the United States and China, the world's two largest economies. Obama's visit to Beijing in November generated a surprising amount of consensus on a range of issues, including an ambitious agreement on cutting greenhouse gas emissions that the White House hopes will push nations like India toward similar pacts. But Washington has deep concerns about Beijing's actions on such matters as regional territorial disputes, computer hacking and currency manipulation. India is particularly concerned about China's quiet quest for greater influence in the Indian Ocean, which has long been New Delhi's domain. The tankers that move through the Indian Ocean are critical for India's oil supply, and any significant slowdown in tanker traffic could cripple its economy. India is also concerned about the Chinese troops that regularly move across its unmarked Himalayan border with China. Rahul Bedi, an analyst for Jane's Information Group, said India's goal within the next two decades is to develop military capabilities that would enable them to take on China. "India can't do that on its own, so we need somebody like America to hold our hand," Bedi said. Obama and Modi agreed to extend a 10-year defense pact that the White House said would allow for deeper military-to-military engagement and increase maritime cooperation. Pentagon chief Chuck Hagel said a defense partnership between the United States and India "will help forge security and stability in Asia and across the globe." Still, regional experts caution that there are limits to how far India, a nation that championed a policy of nonalignment during the Cold War, will go in joining together with the United States to counter China. "India does not want to seem like it's banding together with the United States or with other countries to go against China," said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the Wilson Center. Kugelman said that while Modi is moving away from his country's nonalignment policy, "its influence is very strong." The post China's Shadow Looms Large Over Obama Visit to India appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Ex-Thai PM’s Party Promises Calm Following Indictment Posted: 26 Jan 2015 08:54 PM PST Reporters listen to a member of former ruling Pheu Thai party’s legal team on Jan. 23. (Photo: Damir Sagolj / Reuters) BANGKOK — Former Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s Puea Thai Party vowed on Monday it would not retaliate against a five-year political ban imposed on the ousted leader, and a leading party figure said the movement could survive without the powerful family. In a nearly identical repeat of her billionaire brother’s fall from power, Yingluck last week was banned from politics for five years and indicted on criminal charges over her involvement in a state rice buying scheme that cost Thailand billions of dollars. Yingluck’s supporters say the charges against her are an attempt to limit the political influence of her brother, ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and weaken his Puea Thai Party. Anusorn Iamsa-ard, spokesman for the Puea Thai Party, said the decision to ban Yingluck from politics would not be a trigger for unrest. "We will not use the decision to impeach [former] Prime Minister Yingluck as a trigger to organise political movements, that is not our intention," Anusorn told Reuters. Thailand remains under martial law following a May coup that the army said was necessary to restore order after months of political unrest in which nearly 30 people died. The law, imposed nationwide, bans all political gatherings. The ban and the legal case against Yingluck are the latest twist in a decade of turbulent politics that have pitted Yingluck and her brother against the royalist-military establishment that sees the Shinawatras as a threat and reviles their populist policies. Both led populist governments toppled in coups and were subjected to legal action and street protests by pro-establishment activists. Thaksin fled Thailand to avoid a 2008 jail term for corruption. He has lived abroad since, but retains a strong influence over Thai politics. In her first public sighting since she was banned from political office, Yingluck met with Assistant US Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific Daniel Russel on Monday. Russel, the highest-level US official to visit Thailand since the coup, called for a "broader and more inclusive" political process. "The United States does not take sides in Thai politics. We believe it is for the Thai people to determine the legitimacy of the political and legal processes," Russel told students at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. "We’re also particularly concerned that the political process doesn’t seem to represent all elements in Thai society." US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Russel met with the Thai foreign minister, General Tanasak Patimapragorn, and "underlined that our relationship with Thailand cannot return to normal until democracy is re-established." "Assistant Secretary Russel highlighted the importance of US-Thai relations, but also made clear that the lifting of martial law, the re-establishment of fundamental freedoms, including the freedoms of assembly and speech, and a transparent and inclusive constitution-drafting process are crucial to re-establishing a stable democracy in Thailand," she said. Thailand’s military-appointed legislature last week found Yingluck guilty of negligence over her role in a state rice buying scheme that paid farmers far above market prices. The same day, the attorney general’s office said it would proceed with criminal charges against her for alleged corruption in the rice scheme. If found guilty by the Supreme Court, she could be jailed for up to 10 years. She is expected to be arraigned in about a month. Yingluck, who has defended the rice scheme, has vowed to fight the charges. Chavalit Vichayasut, a former Puea Thai Party lawmaker, said the survival of the party was not dependant on the Shinawatras. "The work of our party does not depend on a surname or a single family. Anyone can work with us. Any surname will do as long as that person intends to work for the country," he told Reuters. "It doesn’t have to be someone from the Shinawatra family." The military government has said a general election will be held in 2016. Thailand has been broadly split along north-south political lines since Thaksin’s ouster by the military in 2006. On one side is the Bangkok-based royalist-military establishment, which sees Thaksin, a telecommunications billionaire turned prime minister, as a threat. They accuse Thaksin, the first prime minister in Thailand’s history to lead an elected government through a full term in office, of corruption and nepotism. On the other side are his supporters in the agricultural north and northeast of Thailand, where millions of farmers voted for Yingluck in a 2011 general election. The post Ex-Thai PM’s Party Promises Calm Following Indictment appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Burma ‘Not Ready’ for Asean Single Market by End of 2015 Posted: 26 Jan 2015 04:00 PM PST Leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations shake hands ahead of a plenary session of the 25th Asean Summit in Naypyidaw on Nov. 12, 2014. (Photo: Reuters) The Asean goal of creating a single business market among the regional grouping's 10 member countries is unlikely to happen for some years and certainly not by the target start date of the end of this year, analysts warn. Burma is one of several countries in the bloc that lacks sufficient infrastructure to benefit from the planned beginning of the Asean Economic Community (AEC), they say. And the dream of a single, joined-up market with unrestricted movement of labor—similar to the European Union—will be dogged by national self-interest for years to come, it is predicted. "The short-term benefits of reduced trade and investment barriers for less developed states have perhaps been overplayed," Asia analyst Hugo Brennan at business risk assessors Verisk Maplecroft told The Irrawaddy. "Even without these barriers, weak infrastructure, endemic corruption and a low-skilled labor force will continue to undermine the business and investment climate in countries such as Myanmar [Burma]." Burma, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam will be slower to achieve their targets for trade liberalization than the other more affluent members, said the Wharton business school at the University of Pennsylvania in an assessment on the AEC this month. The other six Asean members are Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. "Moreover, the risk of political instability looms, especially in Thailand and Myanmar," Wharton said. Meanwhile, the AEC countries are already facing their first and unexpected economic hurdle, Wharton said: sharply falling crude oil prices. "Lower oil prices will help some Asean oil and gas importers like Thailand, which is the biggest beneficiary in Asia because it is the most dependent on road transport. Lower oil prices hurt Malaysia, a net oil exporter, and Myanmar, which is a net gas exporter." Most Asean countries will be unable to comply with AEC objectives for more relaxed rules on foreign ownership and freer movement of workers by the end of this year due to domestic political constraints, international law firm Allen & Overy said in its latest quarterly report on business. "However, international and regional investors are thinking more in terms of this as one region, as evidenced by the increasing numbers of companies establishing regional offices in Asean locations, primarily in Singapore. "One other noticeable growing trend is the increasing amount of intra-Asean investment from the more developed Asean member states. We are also seeing a trickle of outbound Vietnamese investment, although Vietnam remains primarily an inbound destination, as do Myanmar [Burma] and countries in Indochina." Allen & Overy said Japanese trading and industrial companies were becoming the most "significant" investors in Asean. One of Burma's leading businessmen, Serge Pun, spoke on the AEC at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos last week. Protectionist impulses were strong in government and business, but there now seemed to be a determined effort to make the AEC work, he said. The disparity in development between the 10 member states could be an advantage to an emerging economy such as Burma, which "would welcome the unskilled jobs that more developed Asean members are shedding," Serge Pun said. Thailand's deputy prime minister, Pridiyathorn Devakula, defied the general opinion at Davos: "Some in the audience may not believe it, but believe me, we will have a single market by the end of the year," he said. Murray Hiebert, the deputy director of the Sumitro chair for Southeast Asia studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, told the Wharton study that the liberalization of financial services and freer movement of capital and labor would be slow to develop. "Some Asean countries are anxious about opening up financial services and capital markets out of fear of financial contagion and exchange rate volatility, even though integration would provide opportunities for risk-sharing," Hiebert said. A more unified market will eventually lead to a more organized industrial division of labor, some analysts believe. Not all member countries could afford to develop or sustain a car-building industry, for example. At present Thailand is "Asean's Detroit." But Indonesia is fast catching up in production volume, which leaves little room for emerging players such as Burma to attract major investment in vehicle construction. Commercial nationalism looks likely to impede full open markets for some time. "National interest is expected to take precedence over the common goal for the foreseeable future," Brennan told The Irrawaddy. "Indeed, President Jokowi [Joko Widodo] of Indonesia said this explicitly at a recent Asean summit when he told member states that he would not allow economic integration to harm his country's national interest. "In Indonesia's case, the government is reluctant to liberalize its investment market in some key sectors, for fear that its domestic companies will not be able to compete with those from Asean's more developed economies, particularly Singapore and Malaysia. "The current gulf that exists between member states, in terms of wealth and economic development, will certainly act as a drag on progress toward creating a single market. It is likely to be years, if not decades, before we see a truly integrated market across Asean," Brennan said. Burma poses two potential problems for the AEC, said Wharton: Uncertainty following parliamentary elections later this year, and the prospect of more violence between majority Buddhists and the country's minority Muslim Rohingya population. Hiebert disagreed: "Myanmar [Burma] is still only a minor player in Asean's economy so it is not likely that the election in 2015 will have a major impact on Asean. But Thailand's political instability could have a bigger impact." In the longer term, the AEC is likely to bring greater cohesion between the member states, but this is "likely to be a long and arduous process," Brennan said. "What Asean needs more than anything is a powerful supranational body, something akin to the Commission in the European Union, which could compel its disparate and self-interested members to comply with their promises. "However, the organization's commitment to the principles of non-interference and consensus-building makes this an unlikely prospect," Brennan said. The post Burma 'Not Ready' for Asean Single Market by End of 2015 appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

You are subscribed to email updates from The Irrawaddy To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States