Monday, June 15, 2015

Shan Herald Agency for News

Shan Herald Agency for News

KOKANG CONFLICT: Rejection of unilateral ceasefire a wise choice?

Posted: 15 Jun 2015 03:49 AM PDT

It seems the Thein Sein regime's wait and see stance to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) unilateral ceasefire announcement is very short-lived. For shortly after the declaration, the Burma Army (BA), also known as Tatmadaw, launched two days long attacks on MNDAA positions near the China-Burma border post 111, north of Laukkai.
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According to VOA, Burmese section, report of 13 June, Tun Myat Lin, secretary general and spokesman for MNDAA said: " Tatmadaw made military offensive with heavy weapons and infantry forces. It is the same today, at border post 111, in the north of Laukkai Township. Yesterday, there were offensives using infantry forces twice. Also today, as far as I know, the fighting is still going on. After we unilaterally declare ceasefire, they started to attack. It is clear that they responded to our announcement with military offensives."

When Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei's was asked, regarding the MNDAA unilateral ceasefire declaration, for China's comment, during the regular press conference on June 12, 2015, he replied:

"We have noted reports about the unilateral ceasefire announced by the relevant party involved in the conflicts in northern Myanmar. We welcome that and hope that warring parties in Myanmar could meet each other halfway, exercise restraint, cease the warfare as soon as possible and bring normal order back to the border area between China and Myanmar."
"The Chinese side holds a clear-cut stance on the issue of northern Myanmar. We support the settlement of disputes through peaceful negotiations by parties concerned in Myanmar, so as to realize peace and national reconciliation at an early date and keep the China-Myanmar border stable. It serves the common interests of the two sides. To make that happen, the Chinese side has played a constructive role in pushing forward the peace process in northern Myanmar at the request of the Myanmar side, and has been welcomed by the Myanmar side. Going forward, the Chinese side will continue to make positive efforts to that end."


 Hardly had the Chinese endorsement of peaceful negotiations to end the conflict, following the Kokang's unilateral ceasefire declaration, was publicly made known, the BA launched massive military offensives, within a day of the announcement.

According to VOA, China-based Burma expert, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw interprets the situation as follows: " I see that the Burma Army doesn't seem to be ready for peace and cool down the armed conflicts, since they're creating armed conflicts, one after another. On the part of Kokang, they're only thinking and aiming at regaining a political space for themselves.

That's why they're initiating unilateral ceasefire, also, in part, according to China's pressure. But the Burmese regime and military seem more desirable to go on with the civil war. So it looks like, it is restarting the animosity. For China, if the civil war doesn't spill over into its territory, it is alright. It has already made necessary preparation for such eventuality. Since it has to observe non-interference of other country internal affairs, etc., it could be taken that China won't be more involved than this, at the moment."

BBC, Burmese section, of 13 June said that in the course of BA attacks on MNDAA positions along the border, stray bullets landing on Chinese soils were reported by the Kokang side, but couldn't be confirmed and received no response from government side either, when asked about it.

Accordingly, Min Zaw Oo, director of Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) said that the regime has no policy to implement ceasefire with the Kokang group; and that for the time being, it is only adhering to the 14 Ethnic Armed Organizations' (EAOs) ceasefire agreements and armed conflict deescalation agreement with the Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/KIA). Regarding Kokang, the regime is now only tackling the security issue, although the political dialogue door is opened, ceasefire arrangement still cannot be made; the government, the parliament and the military have no differences on this line of principle.
Apart from that the Kokang unilateral ceasefire declaration is seen as a sign of weakness from government quarters, interpreting that it has come up with such move for it is losing militarily, with the government troops retaking back most areas previously under MNDAA control.

The information minister, U Ye Htut, told BBC, on 11 June, that the regime will not tolerated infringement of national sovereignty of any group and that it will be met with military response. Besides, he stressed that MNDAA has started the fight.

On top of all these, Commander-in-Chief, Min Aung Hliang's latest interview with The Mainichi, on 12 June, clearly spelled out on what kind of political course that the military is determined to chart, regardless of President's peace process initiatives and political tug of war going on in today's Burma political arena.

He outlined that he is against constitutional amendments; fervent believer of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) or negotiated surrender of the EAOs; and a confessed follower of General Than Shwe, who is the architect of the present quasi-civilian regime, which would enable the military to dominate the country's political system and power for as long as it is necessary.

When asked if he means that this is not the right time to amend Section 436, he replied: " I have to say that this is not a suitable time yet for that."

The 2008, military drafted Constitution of chapter 12's article 436 gives the Burmese military an effective veto over constitutional amendments.

Regarding DDR, Min Aung Hliang said: "Due to my yielding to the wishes of the armed groups as much as I can, we are now at a stage where we could already sign a draft ceasefire agreement. The next step is having discussions. The most important issue would be security reconciliation. Roughly, we call it DDR (disarmament, demobilization and reintegration). This is a must. There are countries in this world where there are armed conflicts. Among these countries, those that could work on security reconciliation in time gained lasting peace, while others that could not did not gain lasting peace and still trying to solve their problems. Hence, it is necessary for ethnic armed groups to work on security reconciliation."

Min Aung Hlaing's security reconciliation is interpreted by the EAOs as "negotiated surrender", for they are for security sector reform (SSR), which aims at amending the present Burman-dominated army into a federal union army structure, where the EAOs will be integrated and become part of the federal union army, serving their respective homelands.

He also made his admiration and respect for General Than Shwe known, when he said: " Senior General Than Shwe also did his part, as much as he could, to transform the defense services into a modern one by leading the armed forces for many years. To tell the truth, the armed forces became modern due to his endeavors. He also put Myanmar on the path to democracy. We cannot forget his thankful deeds. He also did his best. The multi-party democratic path that he transformed could become firm as we carefully take control of it a bit."

Of course, many others see the senior General as the one who carefully prepare the transformation of the direct military dictatorship rule to a quasi-civilian regime to be more acceptable domestically and internationally, where the military will still be dominant in Burma's political arena for unforeseeable future.

Given such a backdrop, the regime's outright rejection of Kokang's unilateral ceasefire would mean that the border friction with China is programmed to reoccur again sooner or later, for stray bombs and bullets would definitely land on Chinese soil, as had happened many times during last few months, inflicting human and material causalities on the Chinese population along the border. This would inevitably prompt the Chinese to take action and no one knows what would follow, except that the conflict would become international, leading to more sophisticated consequences.

This attitude of "zero-sum" game would also exacerbate the already problematic situation to accommodate the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) amendments of EAOs, which clearly said that all-inclusive signing by all its members as a precondition to ratify the document. And finally, this will push the regime to employ other solution to achieve its goal-setting, which could be anything from unilaterally going it alone on its own agenda, or implementing its desired terms together with some EAOs that are willing to go along, including some political parties, to abandoning the whole peace process altogether.
Whatever the case, the regime should now earnestly rethink if it is worth to go on with its "total annihilation" policy of Kokang group at all cost, just to satisfy its ego and take revenge for its lost of face, regarding the massive human causalities inflicted upon BA, or agree with Kokang's peaceful overtures, China's constructive suggestion and end the conflict through negotiations.

As it stands, there is likelihood that the National League for Democracy (NLD) leader, Aung San Suu Kyi's might have carried messages from President Thein Sein and Min Aung Hliang, knowing that the Chinese would have a softer approach with her, according to a keen observer of Burma politics. He said: " Now that Peking has ordered the MNDAA to a unilateral ceasefire, Min Aung Hliang has changed his tune that the Kokang problem is mainly a domestic problem and China has no hand in it. No more declarations of encroachment of sovereignty and national security. Now let's wait and see what China's next move is."

The observer added: " The Commander-in-Chief wants to prove that his army is the almighty power that the Ethnic Nationalities must live to accept. The Independence Day Parade was a show of force and a warning that we will be punished with those weapons. He has new arms and reinforcements in the past 4 years and still has to prove himself."

While it is highly unlikely that BA will declare an outright ceasefire which would be a lost of pride and face, it certainly needs an outlet to come out of its own self-made rhetoric trap of "total annihilation" that it has entangled. But the sooner the pragmatic approach of reconciliation through negotiation is employed to defuse the warring situation, the better the political climate will develop for Burma as a whole.

It is now up to the Commander-in-Chief and the President to decide.

The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU) — Editor
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