The Irrawaddy Magazine

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• Will Burma Meet Its Tourism Expectations This Year?
• RCSS Confirm Support for Ceasefire Signing
• Posthumous Award Revives Memories of a Shan Prince
• Locals Flee Alleged KNU Recruitment in Karen State
• Police Arrest Four Men Accused in Murder-Rape Case
• Family of Fisherman Killed in Custody Accuses Suspect’s Uncle of Bribery
• Masterful Watercolors on View in Rangoon
• US Says Ready to Defend Against North Korean Nuclear Threat
• Burma’s Peace Process: The Factional Figures Pushing Pen to Paper
• China Turns Firepower to Soft Power to Win Over Tiny Taiwan-Held Island
• Imelda Marcos Disappointed Her Son Will Not Contest Philippine Presidency

Will Burma Meet Its Tourism Expectations This Year? Posted: 08 Oct 2015 05:51 AM PDT A group of tourists at the summit of a pagoda in Bagan. (Photo: The Irrawaddy) Rangoon — The government expects the number of tourists who come to Burma this year to reach 5 million, but some industry observers doubt that this figure will be met, and that it might be based on misleading numbers. Earlier this year Minister of Hotels and Tourism Htay Aung estimated tourist arrivals for this calendar year to fall between 4.5 and 5 million. Since Burma's transition to a quasi-civilian government under President Thein Sein, tourism arrivals have already risen sharply according to the government figures, which show that numbers climbed from 800,000 in 2011 to 3.08 million in 2014. As of late August this year, Burma had already received nearly 3 million foreign visitors, according to the ministry, and numbers are likely to rise again  once monsoon season ends in mid-October. "We have already received around 3 million foreign travelers this year, and with four months still remaining, we expect to draw at least 4.5 to 5 million more," said tourism ministry director Khin Than Win. The majority of foreign travelers come into Burma through two major Thai borders. Of the 3 million foreign visitors last year, more than 1.9 million of them came across the border. Between January and late August of this year, the number of tourist arrivals via airports reached less than one million, while the number of border entries reached almost 2 million. Thai visitors comprised 71.39 percent of total foreign visitors to Burma last year, followed, respectively, by visitors from EU countries and from the US and Canada. However, doubt has been cast on these estimates, as it is difficult to pin down the number of border tourist arrivals. Maung Maung, chairman of World Quest International, a travel and tour agency, said that he is doubtful about the figures that have been released by the government. "It's hard to calculate the figures for border entries. They might be wrong. Figures for airports and seaports, however, are exact, and we can count those," he said. Tachileik in Shan State and Myawaddy in Karen State are the two border points that, since the new government came to power in 2011 and eased border restrictions, have allowed tourists easy land access to Burma. "I don't see anything supporting the estimate that we'll receive 5 million tourists this year, as package tours have been falling," Maung Maung added, remarking that his colleagues have told him that Bagan, a major tourist destination, has been confronted with similar tourist challenges in the past year. "Government figures have been rising, but what we're actually seeing is an increase in the number of backpackers, who don't bring in as much money as package tours do," he said. Phyo Wai Yar Zar, chairman of the Myanmar Tourism Marketing board, expressed similar sentiments, saying that "while it's good that FIT [free independent traveler] figures are higher, we should also improve our numbers for package and leisure tours." The slowdown in Burma's tourism growth can also be attributed to several other factors, including a dearth in the number of quality hotels and guesthouses, expensive room rates, weak infrastructures for transportation and communication, an underdeveloped air industry with a poor safety record, and less spending power for, in particular, European travelers in light of a strong US dollar exchange rate. Aung Myat Kyaw, former chairman of the Union of Myanmar Travel Association, echoed other industry observers' skepticism to The Irrawaddy last month. "Five million is very ambitious. By the end of July [from January], we received around two million foreign travelers. It is possible that we can get close to our target of five million, probably around four million, because the number will only increase from now on. But we will still try to reach our target," he said. A partial remedy to Burma's tourism woes might lie in generating better promotion efforts. Phyo Wai Yar Zar said that a tourism show, which is part of the Myanmar Tourism Marketing board's tourism promotion program, will be held in Chiang Mai, Thailand, on Nov. 20, with the aim of inviting tourism agents and agencies to Burma. "We need more tourism promotion to attract more travelers to Burma," he said. The Ministry of Hotels and Tourism estimates that revenue has increased from US$534 million in 2012 to $1.78 billion in 2014. Projects to increase tourism are also in the works. "Thirty-three of 47 projects by foreign investors have been completed so far. There are more than 5,900 [hotel] rooms in service now," said Khin Than Win, with other projects still underway. The post Will Burma Meet Its Tourism Expectations This Year? appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

RCSS Confirm Support for Ceasefire Signing Posted: 08 Oct 2015 05:13 AM PDT Leader of the Restoration Council of Shan State, Lt-Gen Yawd Serk, speaks to reporters in northern Thailand on Thursday. (Photo: Nyein Zaw / The Irrawaddy) CHIANG MAI, Thailand — A powerful Shan armed group confirmed it would sign a much-debated peace deal during a press conference in northern Thailand on Thursday, but called on the government to uphold the terms of the pact. The Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) joins seven other ethnic armed groups in support of signing the nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA), with a signing ceremony scheduled to be held in Naypyidaw next week. "We agreed to sign the agreement on Oct. 15 with seven other ethnic groups," head of the RCSS, Lt-Gen Yawd Serk, said at a press conference on Thursday. "But I am concerned that the government and the Tatmadaw [Burma's Armed Forces] won't comply with a key chapter of the NCA which is the formation of a federal union." Yawd Serk said the armed group had opted to accede to the accord in order to join political dialogue which, according to the text, will commence within 90 days of the signing. He stressed that political dialogue was the only means of addressing ethnic conflict but called on the government to show sincerity in addressing ethnic issues. "We don't want to see the government secure the NCA just to win support in the election. We worry that they haven't thought how to seriously comply with the NCA after securing it," Yawd Serk said. "I hope the [agreement] is not just to show off to the international community in order to gain a good image." Despite backing the agreement and therefore diverging from the position of several major ethnic armed groups including the Kachin Independence Army and the Shan State Army-North, the RCSS leader agreed the accord should be "inclusive"—open to all armed groups to sign. In a statement released on Thursday, RCSS called on the government to avoid troop deployments in multiple townships in Shan State where the group has a presence and facilitate the establishment of additional liaison offices. The RCSS decision to sign the peace deal comes despite multiple armed clashes with government troops in recent months which prompted the group to call for the suspension of electoral campaigning in over a dozen townships in Shan State. In Thursday's statement, the RCSS claimed the Burma Army "did not comply" with the initial bilateral ceasefire agreement signed with the government in December 2011, leading to frequent armed clashes. Nevertheless, the group said in order to guarantee "equal rights, self-determination and… a genuine democratic federal union," it supported signing the NCA. The post RCSS Confirm Support for Ceasefire Signing appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Posthumous Award Revives Memories of a Shan Prince Posted: 08 Oct 2015 03:20 AM PDT Sao Kya Seng's widow, Inge Sargent (center), and their two daughters accept an award on his behalf. (Photo: Courtesy of Withaya Huanok) "I was 16 or 17 then… We were all staying [in Taunggyi]… and that morning [of the coup], army officers showed up and called my father away for a 'meeting' with the local military commander," recalled Hkun Htun Oo, the chairman of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), the second biggest victor of the 1990 Elections, just behind the National League for Democracy (NLD). Although over five decades had elapsed since General Ne Win seized power in a coup d'état, which would usher in almost five decades of brutal military rule in Burma, his memory of the day's events remained clear.  "They [the soldiers] did not explain any further but told him to bring his toothbrush, any regular medicines, and warm clothing, so it was clear that he was going to be detained." The knock on the door that morning for a 'meeting' heralded the start of a five year imprisonment in Insein Prison.  Most other senior members of the ruling Shan royal families got similar invitations. His adoptive father was Sao Kya Zone; his father's brother, Sao Kya Seng, was the Saophalong, or ruling prince of the Shan State of Hsipaw. Hkun Htun Oo, reached down to roll up the leggings of his baggy Shan trousers, revealing extensive darkened, dry patches on the surface. "My father was lucky to be in Insein. I was sent to Putao," he said nonchalantly. In 2005, as a result of his political activities, he had been arrested and sentenced in a closed trial in Insein Prison to 93 years imprisonment for "high treason," served at Putao Prison in Kachin State.  The extreme cold, coupled with medical neglect of his diabetes, gout, heart disease and arthritis, resulted in longstanding circulatory problems and the resultant scars on his legs. His uncle, Sao Kya Seng, fared worse. "I was about to leave for school and warned my uncle to be careful, I suspected a coup. After the car dropped me off at school, he took the same car to Heho. Along the way, he was detained and taken away to the Eastern Command." Sao Kya Seng was last seen being taken into custody at an army checkpoint near Taunggyi. This history would have been forgotten, yet another tragedy among a litany of abuses against ethnic peoples committed by successive Burmese military regimes, if not for the recollections of those who had lived under such, including Sao Kya Seng's widow, Inge Sargent.  Although now retired and living in Colorado, she published "Twilight Over Burma: My Life as a Shan Princess" in 1994 to preserve the memory of her husband, and the abuses for which the Tatmadaw—the Burmese name for the country's armed forces—has never been held to account. The book has also been adapted into a film, with a German premiere planned for October 26, 2015, followed by an international debut. Nee Inge Eberhard, an Austrian student, had won a Fulbright Scholarship to study at a women's college in Colorado in 1951. There she met and fell in love with a young man from Burma studying at the Colorado School of Mines, and the couple married in 1953. It was only after the wedding, when they returned to his home, that Inge learned that she had married a Shan prince, later recalling that, "he wanted to be sure I loved him for who he was, not what he was." She was quickly accepted by her adopted family, learning the Shan language and customs and becoming Sao Thusandi, the Mahadevi (Celestial Princess) of Hsipaw. Her subjects preferred to address her as Sao Mae or royal mother. Among the most progressive of the Shan royal families, the young couple used their newly acquired Western education and instituted land reforms to improve the livelihoods, health, and education of Hsipaw. "The two of us were like a Little Peace Corps," recalled Sao Mae. "He not only tried to reform the political system but worked for the economic improvement of all people living in the Shan States." Sao Kya Seng founded the Tai Mining Company soon after his return in 1953, aiming to tap into his state's rich mineral deposits of lead, silver, salt, antimony, zinc, and gold to diversify its primarily agrarian economy and improve livelihoods. Ne Win's coup and decades of military rule would bring these efforts to an abrupt halt and, for most Hsipaw residents, achieve the opposite. "Unfortunately, the military coup occurred as the equipment was arriving from overseas," noted his widow, who was initially placed under house arrest for two years before finally fleeing Burma in 1964. Sao Kya Seng's work was recognized by his alma mater on October 1, 2015, when the Distinguished Achievement Medal was posthumously conferred on him for his outstanding professional achievements, accepted by Sao Mae and their two daughters, Sao Mayari and Sao Kennari. "All Shan people who believe in education will be proud of what the last Saopha of Hsipaw, Sao Kya Seng, was able to achieve in spite of the Burmese military and those Shans who conspired with them," noted Inge in her acceptance speech. Along with her daughters, the former Mahadevi of Hsipaw continues to write letters to the Burmese government, including the current Thein Sein administration, inquiring about Sao Kya Seng. The letters have always been ignored. Although significant changes have unfolded in Burma since the reforms of the current administration, there are many in the government who would prefer that the past remain obscure. Hkun Tun Oo was released in January 2012 under a presidential amnesty and his political party is officially registered to contest the November 8th elections. "[Despite the abuses] I have no remorse," he defiantly declared, as he rolled down his pants to hide the scars. The post Posthumous Award Revives Memories of a Shan Prince appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Locals Flee Alleged KNU Recruitment in Karen State Posted: 08 Oct 2015 03:11 AM PDT Victims of Karen State's ethnic conflict are pictured in this 2011 photograph. (Photo: Free Burma Rangers) RANGOON — Nearly 2,000 villagers from eight villages in Karen State's Hpapun District have fled their homes following an alleged recruitment drive by Brigade No. 5 of the Karen National Union (KNU). "Both adults and children have fled. They are now staying at Myaing Gyi Ngu. They said they fled out of fear at the prospect of being recruited," said Maj. Naing Maung Zaw of the Karen State Border Guard Force (BGF), a pro-government armed group. Locals fled on Saturday and began arriving to the town of Myaing Gyi Ngu on Monday, Naing Maung Zaw told The Irrawaddy. "We don't know yet how to accommodate them. There are 12 wards in Myaing Gyi Ngu and for the time being, they are staying at houses there. The Karen State government has taken down a list of them and sent a week's food supplies," he said. A total of 1,985 people from 308 houses in the eight Hpapun District villages have fled the recruitment, the escapees said. The affected villages are in an area under the control of the KNU's Brigade No. 5, with the Salween River separating them from Myaing Gyi Ngu. KNU spokesperson Phadoe Mann Nyein Maung, however, denied that the KNU was behind the recruitment effort. "It is not KNU. There is a group called Hpa Pi there. It is recruiting," he told The Irrawaddy, referring to a faction that broke away from the KNU earlier this year. A representative from the Karen State government declined to comment on the situation when contacted by The Irrawaddy. Myaing Gyi Ngu lies in an area previously controlled by the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), another KNU splinter group, before government troops occupied it in July. The area is currently under the control of the Burma Army and Karen State BGF. In Karen State, the KNU, Karen National Liberation Army–Peace Council (KNU/KNLA-PC), and DKBA have all agreed to sign a long-sought nationwide ceasefire agreement with the government on Oct. 15. The accord bars ethnic armed groups from recruiting new members. The post Locals Flee Alleged KNU Recruitment in Karen State appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Police Arrest Four Men Accused in Murder-Rape Case Posted: 08 Oct 2015 01:38 AM PDT A view of Naypyidaw's government district. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON—The four men believed to be responsible for murdering a young man and gang-raping his female partner in Naypyidaw last week have been arrested. The official Facebook page of the Ministry of Information reported today that police arrested two men, Aung Tin Myo (also known as Aung Paing), 20, and Kyaw Maung (aka Zaw Zaw Aung), 19, yesterday evening. Two other men, Myo Zaw Win (aka Ko Myo), 16, and Zaw Lay (aka Zaw Myo Thu), 20, were handed over to the police this morning. "Their family members came in and handed them over. We will now proceed with the murder and rape charges," a police officer told the Irrawaddy. The couple, both 16 years old, lived in the village of Thabyaybin in the neighboring Lewe Township. Four men riding two motorbikes threatened the couple at knifepoint and brought them to an area near the Junction Center shopping mall around 1am on Sept. 30. The male victim was found with multiple stab wounds. The police have now opened a case that will charge the suspects with murder and rape. According to the state newspaper The Mirror, Police Col. Ko Ko Aung of Naypyidaw said that the offenders are all around 20 years old, that the late-night crime was not linked to revenge or money, and that the men accused allegedly committed the crime while under the influence of alcohol. "Young men and women should avoid being around deserted places late at night, and they should avoid drinking too much alcohol while they're out, which can easily fuel violent activity," he said, adding that the police force intends to uphold the rule of law.   The post Police Arrest Four Men Accused in Murder-Rape Case appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Family of Fisherman Killed in Custody Accuses Suspect’s Uncle of Bribery Posted: 08 Oct 2015 01:11 AM PDT Fishing boats line the docks of Kyaukphyu, Arakan State. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — The family of a man who was allegedly killed by police in western Burma has been offered compensation in exchange for easing charges against one of the suspects, according to the victim's sister. Three police constables were arrested late last month in connection with the death of fisherman Aung Chan Nu while in custody on Maday Island, Arakan State. A community activist told The Irrawaddy at the time that the inebriated off-duty officers were accused of beating the man after he refused to help them dock their schooner. The suspects allegedly transported the injured man to the local police station, where his condition deteriorated overnight. He died in transit to Kyaukphyu General Hospital the following morning. Nu Phu Khine, the sister of the deceased, said her family was recently visited by Maung Wai Lu, the uncle of one of the three accused policemen. The man tried to "negotiate" with Aung Chan Nu's family, she said, but they did not accept any money from him. "My young brother's life is more valuable than money, I will never accept it," Nu Phu Khine said. "He was not at fault, and I just want justice in accordance with the law." Maung Wai Lu could not be reached for comment, but his brother—the suspect's father—confirmed the visit and denied that any money was offered, stating that "we are not hoping to make a deal with the [victim's] family." The three suspects were apprehended on Sept. 28 and remain in custody, according to the victim's employer. Medical records were handed over to local police last week, a hospital official said, and an investigation is still ongoing. Kyaukphyu District Police Chief Win Kyi told The Irrawaddy that the medical examination is "secret" and no further details could be disclosed at this time. The post Family of Fisherman Killed in Custody Accuses Suspect's Uncle of Bribery appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Masterful Watercolors on View in Rangoon Posted: 07 Oct 2015 10:48 PM PDT Click to view slideshow. RANGOON — The works of master watercolorist Mya Thaung are now on view at Rangoon's Lokanat Gallery, offering a brief but enchanting view of Burma's cityscapes and rural pastures. Born in Bogalay in 1943, Mya Thaung graduated from the State School of Fine Art, Yangon in 1967, and has since become known for his sensitivity to the subtleties of light and color in Burma's humid tropical environment.  While the medium has traditionally lent itself to rural landscapes, the works on view focus equally on depictions of urban life, capturing everyday street scenes with equal skill. The soft-spoken and silver-haired painter is a veteran of Burma's artistic scene, having shown his work in dozens of exhibitions both here and abroad. Mya Thaung was also the recipient of the first prize, grand prize and best in show at the Niagara Frontier Watercolor Society in New York in 1990. This week's exhibition is the artist's second solo show in Rangoon to date. Lokanat Gallery is located on the first floor of No. 62 Pansodan Road in Kyauktada Township, and is open daily from 9 am to 5 pm. The post Masterful Watercolors on View in Rangoon appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

US Says Ready to Defend Against North Korean Nuclear Threat Posted: 07 Oct 2015 10:46 PM PDT North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sits in an airplane as he guides a flight drill for the inspection of airmen of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) Air and Anti-Air Force in this undated photo released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang October 30, 2014. (Photo: Reuters) WASHINGTON — The US government believes North Korea has the capability to launch a nuclear weapon against the US homeland and stands ready to defend against any such attacks, a high-level US military official said on Wednesday. Admiral Bill Gortney, commander of US Northern Command and the North American Aerospace Defense Command, said he agreed with US intelligence assessments that North Korea had nuclear weapons, as well as the ability to miniaturize them and put them on a rocket that could reach the United States. "We assess that they have the capability to reach the homeland with a nuclear weapon from a rocket," Gortney told an event hosted by the Atlantic Council think tank. Gortney said it was very difficult to predict the behavior of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un but the US military was prepared to respond if he were to use a nuclear weapon. "We're ready for him, and we're ready 24 hours a day if he should be dumb enough to shoot something at us," Gortney said. "I'm pretty confident that we're going to knock down the numbers that are going to be shot." North Korea's space agency said last month Pyongyang was building a new satellite and readying it for launch, with any use of a long-range rocket suggesting that the secretive state has made advances developing a ballistic missile. North Korea says its rocket launches are part of a legitimate space program aimed at putting satellites into orbit. It has in the past conducted missile tests in defiance of international warnings and sanctions. The US Missile Defense Agency said in March North Korea could achieve the ability to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile this year. On Wednesday, Gortney said the US military was investing to modernize its current missile defense system, add new sensors and radars to better identify potential missile launches, and drive down the cost of defending against such attacks. He warned that the failure of the US Congress to pass a budget for fiscal year 2016, or a resumption of mandatory budget cuts, could jeopardize the funding needed for such efforts. The post US Says Ready to Defend Against North Korean Nuclear Threat appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Burma’s Peace Process: The Factional Figures Pushing Pen to Paper Posted: 07 Oct 2015 10:32 PM PDT Karen National Union leaders with government negotiators during talks in Hpa-an, Karen State, in January 2012. (Photo: The Irrawaddy) CHIANG MAI, Thailand — The decision of Burma's oldest ethnic armed group, the Karen National Union (KNU), to sign a so-called nationwide ceasefire agreement is a bold step that has generated no small amount of controversy. The group's senior leadership remains divided and broader opposition to the signing emerged earlier this month with the release of a joint-statement, signed by more than 40 ethnic Karen civil society organizations, accusing the KNU of making an "undemocratic" decision. By signing the nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA), KNU leaders had violated their own political and military procedures, the statement said, and had not received the consent of a majority of the group's central executive committee members. The Karen organizations, drawn from across the world, accused a minority of KNU leaders of lacking transparency and of "disregarding the true meaning of 'nationwide' ceasefire." Seven ethnic armed groups have committed to signing the pact, which negotiators say will be officially concluded on Oct. 15, while other key stakeholders will abstain. Of the seven groups, three are ethnic Karen. Naw Wah Khu Shee, a Karen women's rights activist and spokesperson for the coalition of Karen civil society organizations, told The Irrawaddy the signing would only lend credence to the incumbent government at a time of ongoing conflict in ethnic areas. "I think the KNU should not rush into signing the NCA while offensives are still going on in Shan State and Kachin State. Signing the NCA will only give legitimacy and credibility to the government," she said. "The KNU and other ethnic armed organizations that decided to sign should seriously consider the unifying call for inclusiveness for all ethnic armed groups." However, not all KNU leaders back the long-awaited signing and debates have raged within the group's leadership. A senior member of the KNU's military wing, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), confirmed the leadership was split between "those who are ready" to sign and those wishing to hold out. The pro-ceasefire faction, led by KNU chairman Mutu Sae Poe, contend the time is right to engage in the political process. Kwe Htoo Win, general secretary of the KNU and a Mutu Sae Poe supporter, told The Irrawaddy in a recent interview that although there were different opinions within the organization, the outcome reflected the will of the majority. "The decision was made democratically by the KNU central committee based on the principles and goals of the KNU, and therefore no one will reject this decision. They may have their own wishes and views, but we have to follow the decision of the majority," he said. The opposing internal faction, led by vice-chairperson Naw Zipporah Sein, has long urged a more cautious approach to ceasefire negotiations. While divisions within the KNU are nothing new, the current factional divide dates back to late 2012, after Mutu Sae Poe was elected chairman. However, one of the most active players in the pro-NCA bloc is reportedly Htoo Htoo Lay, a senior KNU leader close to the Norway-backed Myanmar Peace Support Initiative and the Brussels-based Euro-Burma Office. Behind the Scenes Htoo Htoo Lay is thought to be close to Shan leader Harn Yawnghwe, head of the Euro-Burma Office. The two men, who are believed to wield significant influence over the political direction of the KNU and the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) respectively, are very much pro-ceasefire and have seemingly adopted the government's view that the civil war can be terminated through economic inducements and development projects. At a recent summit of ethnic armed groups in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai, Htoo Htoo Lay was prominent in actively extolling the benefits of the NCA to his fellow ethnic representatives. Sources believe Htoo Htoo Lay and Harn Yawnghwe have had a significant influence on Burma's peace process from behind the scenes since bilateral agreements were first signed under Thein Sein's government. Harn Yawnghwe, who was a key backer of the Ethnic Nationalities Council (ENC)—an alliance of ethnic armed groups established in 2004—is reported to have his own long-term vision of the post-ceasefire political landscape, including transforming armed groups into legal organizations to contest future elections. While Western interlocutors may see him as a pragmatic negotiator, in the past, Harn Yawnghwe has been at the center of friction within the ethnic alliance movement. A group of ENC leaders dissatisfied with his views broke away to form the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) in 2011. Harn Yawnghwe has also served as a senior advisor to the RCSS and formed the Pyidaungsu Institute in 2013 with the aim of monitoring the peace process and providing assistance. Htoo Htoo Lay serves on the organization's board. While the three Karen armed groups have formally backed the ceasefire, divisions within each group continue to bubble beneath the surface. The Oct. 15 signing, billed as a historic moment in Burma's history of civil war, may yet presage more ethnic disunity. The post Burma's Peace Process: The Factional Figures Pushing Pen to Paper appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

China Turns Firepower to Soft Power to Win Over Tiny Taiwan-Held Island Posted: 07 Oct 2015 10:06 PM PDT A local resident takes a selfie with his smartphone in front of military soldiers and tanks during the annual Han Kuang military exercise in Kinmen, Taiwan, September 7, 2015. (Photo: Pichi Chuang / Reuters) KINMEN, Taiwan — Soldiers on the tiny Taiwan-held island of Kinmen regularly conduct military drills repelling amphibious attacks by Chinese Communist troops from the mainland, but the problem may soon be free-for-all landings of Chinese shoppers and businessmen. The war games are a reminder that this place is the front line between China and Taiwan where beaches were mined and shots traded up until as recently as the mid-1970s, and that China has not renounced force to ensure it gains control of a territory it considers its own. "If China attacks Taiwan, we will be the first to die," said Kinmen bar owner Sam Chen, 29, as he watched recent live-fire drills with fellow residents. "Of course I am worried about war, but I also hope Kinmen can build closer ties with China. It's easier for us young people to make money." There lies the rub. Many in Taiwan, especially a newly politicized youth movement, are angry about perceived economic dominance by China, likening it to an invasion all of its own. But many also see the benefits of closer trade. Rustic Kinmen, with a population of less than 129,000, is a half-hour ferry ride to China, but it takes an hour to fly to major Taiwan cities. Just off its shores, glass-walled high-rises wink seductively from the booming mainland port of Xiamen in one of China's most prosperous provinces. Kinmen is eyeing closer commercial ties with China. It wants to pipe water from Xiamen and has plans to build a bridge and set up a glittering free trade zone with the city. Taiwan's pro-Beijing, Kuomintang-led (KMT) government also hopes greater economic integration will bolster Taiwan's economy. But Taiwan chooses a new president and parliament in January when the KMT is expected to lose to the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is deeply suspicious of China. Beijing has claimed Taiwan since the KMT fled to the island after losing the civil war against Mao Zedong's Communists in 1949. 'Kinmen Can Do What Taiwan Doesn't Dare Do' China is seeking unification with Taiwan under its "one country, two systems" formula by which Hong Kong, a former British colony, returned to Chinese rule in 1997. And Kinmen, or "Golden Gate," is a test for China's ambitions to recover Taiwan through soft power. If Beijing can't win over tiny Kinmen, what chance does it have to convince the other 23 million on the main island of Taiwan? Kinmen's growth is supported by Chinese visitors drawn to reminders of war such as weather-beaten pillboxes, the beach defences, bullet holes in buildings and graffiti proclaiming: "Eliminate the Communists". It is also the site of a brand new, six-storey, duty-free shopping mall, billed as the largest in Asia. "In Kinmen, we can do what Taiwan can't, what Taiwan doesn't dare do," said Kinmen county chief Chen Fu-hai, who wants water, electricity and natural gas to be pumped from Xiamen. Chen has a three-year roadmap to build a "special economic zone" in which Kinmen can share Xiamen's economy. The proposal is being promoted by a pro-Beijing, non-profit organization in Taiwan with close ties to the Communist Party. It wants Kinmen to decide on the free trade zone issue by referendum. But it would still have to get the nod from the central government before a referendum can take place. "As long as it's good for Taiwan's economy and meets the needs of its people, Xiamen will be happy to make it happen," Chinese state media quoted a Xiamen government official saying last year. The free trade zone is controversial because it would allow unfettered Chinese investment on to Kinmen—something that is strictly controlled in Taiwan as a whole. "Kinmen residents are really worried about China," said Andy Yang, a KMT politician who supports the free trade zone idea. "But put that aside: do we want better economic development or not?"       The post China Turns Firepower to Soft Power to Win Over Tiny Taiwan-Held Island appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Imelda Marcos Disappointed Her Son Will Not Contest Philippine Presidency Posted: 07 Oct 2015 10:01 PM PDT Former First Lady and now congresswoman Imelda at the House of the Representatives in Manila, July 27. (Photo: Romeo Ranoco / Reuters) MANILA — Former Philippine first lady Imelda Marcos is disappointed that her son has set his sights on winning the vice presidency in a May election, wishing instead he would follow his late father’s footsteps into the presidential palace. Senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the only son of the late dictator with the same name who ruled in the Philippines for almost two decades, said this week he would run for vice president, though he has yet to find a running mate. “As to my mother, yes, she was disappointed,” Marcos, 58, widely known by his nickname “Bongbong”, told reporters on Wednesday. “She’s wanted me to become president since I was three years old. Imagine how disappointed she is.” The elder Ferdinand Marcos was forced from power by a “people power” uprising in 1986 and died in exile in 1989. His wife, Imelda, famous for her shoe collection, is an 86-year-old congresswoman. Imelda Marcos was not immediately available for comment. She has spoken of her pride in her son and how she would be even more proud if he sought the highest position in the land. More than 54 million Filipinos will vote for a new president, vice president, and about 18,000 lawmakers and local government officials in the May elections. Investors are closely watching the succession in one of Asia’s fastest growing economies, hoping nothing will derail gains made during President Benigno Aquino’s rule. Presidents are limited to one term in the Philippines. The British-educated younger Marcos, who has been a legislator and a local government executive for nearly half his life, said whatever office he gained was a “question of destiny”. “The time was just not right to run for president,” he said. But with ratings in the single digits, his decision not to run for the top job was also perhaps a realistic one. Politics in the Philippines has long been dominated by families and clans, as well as film and sports stars. Marcos said historians would judge his father’s rule and voters today wanted good public servants. He also said he stood to benefit from his famous name. “Being a Marcos has only given me an advantage I wouldn’t have if I wasn’t a Marcos,” he said. “In politics, it is very clear, of course, name recognition is important.” The post Imelda Marcos Disappointed Her Son Will Not Contest Philippine Presidency appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

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