The Irrawaddy Magazine

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• 64-Year-Old Man Stabbed to Death over Parking Dispute in Rangoon
• ‘Penis Poet’ Slapped with Fresh Charges
• Lower House Approves Fast-Tracking of By-Elections
• Burma’s Rice Market in a Tight Spot, Sources Say
• Hpakant Locals Allege KIA Detention of Jade Mine Protesters
• TNLA Claims Govt Uses Helicopter Gunships in Latest Clashes
• Scenes From Southern Shan State
• Japan’s Asylum Applications Exceed 2014 Level by End-Oct.
• US Seeks Answers in Case of Missing Laos Activist
• Vietnam Builds Military Muscle to Face China

64-Year-Old Man Stabbed to Death over Parking Dispute in Rangoon Posted: 17 Dec 2015 04:39 AM PST Lines of cars seen stuck in a traffic jam along Alan Pya road in Rangoon, July 3, 2013. (Photo: Reuters) RANGOON — A 64-year-old man was stabbed to death in downtown Rangoon on Wednesday evening following what witnesses said was a dispute over a parking space. Soe Hlaing had attempted to break up a physical altercation involving his son and another man on Hledan Street over a parking dispute when he was stabbed in the chest, according to witnesses. He was taken to Rangoon General Hospital at around 7:40 pm on Wednesday but died in transit. The victim's son, Hlaing Win Htun, told The Irrawaddy that similar quarrels had occurred in the past but had not escalated. "The problem should not be solved this way no matter how heated the argument gets," he said. The incident has sparked a debate about Rangoon's haphazard urban planning controls, with at least two experts reiterating calls for local authorities to urgently address the city's rapid and largely unregulated urbanization. Rangoon-based urban planning expert Than Moe told The Irrawaddy that similar incidents could reoccur if local authorities continue to allow building permits for high-density structures in Rangoon's already congested downtown, without appropriate planning and control measures. "Rangoon's problem over car parking space could be relieved by implementing multistory car parking buildings," Than Moe said. "But, as far as I know, projects that focus on benefits for residents in Rangoon are very rare." The number of vehicles on the streets of the commercial capital has increased significantly since the beginning of economic reforms in 2011. According to Than Moe, there are an estimated 400,000 registered vehicles on Rangoon's roads. Local architect Maw Lin said a fundamental issue was a lack of systematic urban planning controls. "As long as they don't care where developments are allowed, such incidents will happen again in future," he said. In December 2014, an international forum on the role of heritage in sustainable development was held in Rangoon in response to the challenges facing Burma's most populous city. Participating experts wrote an open letter to President Thein Sein requesting "urgent action" to reign in unchecked urbanization and enact legislation on building and zoning plans. The post 64-Year-Old Man Stabbed to Death over Parking Dispute in Rangoon appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

‘Penis Poet’ Slapped with Fresh Charges Posted: 17 Dec 2015 04:15 AM PST Maung Saungkha arrives for a hearing at the courthouse in Shwepyithar Township, Rangoon, on Dec. 17. (Photo: Myo Min Soe / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — A poet charged with defamation after posting a verse on social media claiming he had a tattoo of the president on his penis is facing an additional incitement charge after his latest court appearance. Maung Saungkha, 23, was arrested in early November after several weeks on the run from authorities, after a warning from President's Office director Zaw Htay that the poet should "be prepared to take responsibility" for his profane verse. The 23-year-old has since been held on remand in Rangoon's Insein Prison. His initial charge was under Section 66(d) of the Telecommunications Law, with a looming three-year prison sentence if convicted. During his fourth court appearance on Thursday, an additional charge under Section 505(b) of the colonial-era Penal Code was added to the proceedings, leaving Maung Saungkha facing an additional two-year punishment under the code's incitement provision. "He will be the first person charged under 505(b) for writing a poem," the accused's lawyer Robert San Aung told The Irrawaddy on Thursday. "It is highly unfair to be charged twice for the same offense. It seems they want to prosecute him again and again." In a similar case, National League for Democracy (NLD) supporter Chaw Sandi Tun was arrested in Rangoon in October for allegedly sharing a photograph that compared the uniforms of the Burma Army to female clothing. Also represented by Robert San Aung, the young woman is facing charges under the same section of the Telecommunications Law. A second charge of defamation under Section 500 of the Penal Code was dropped during her latest court appearance on Monday. The post 'Penis Poet' Slapped with Fresh Charges appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Lower House Approves Fast-Tracking of By-Elections Posted: 17 Dec 2015 03:21 AM PST An empty seat is seen at the opening of a joint parliamentary session in Naypyidaw on July 4, 2012. (Photo: Reuters) RANGOON — The Lower House of Parliament on Wednesday approved an amendment to Burma's election laws that would mandate the holding of a by-election within six months of a seat in the country's legislative chambers being vacated. Khin San Hlaing, a Lower House lawmaker for the National League for Democracy (NLD), told The Irrawaddy that the amended bills state that Burma's Union Election Commission (UEC) must organize by-elections within six months of when a given parliamentary chamber's speaker informs legislators of a seat opening. She said that under current election laws, there is no timeframe provided for when vacant seats must be filled. The lack of this by-election provision has meant that over the course of the current five-year parliamentary term, many constituents have gone extended periods without representation in Naypyidaw. An April 2012 by-election saw the NLD win 43 of 44 contested seats, but a second by-election for more than 30 seats scheduled for 2014 was scrapped, with the UEC saying there was not enough time to organize that poll ahead of this year's Nov. 8 general election. "But now, the commission will arrange to substitute if any lawmaker is vacant for any reason. So it is good. If not, if we wait to hold [by-elections] nationwide, the process will be more complicated," she said. The bills will be sent to the Upper House for approval. "It is good for the constituents too—if their representatives quit or are disqualified for any reason or become a cabinet member, the substituted representatives can work for them," Khin San Hlaing added. The 2012 by-election was called after many members elected to office in Burma's discredited 2010 general election were subsequently appointed to cabinet positions in the victorious Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) government, requiring them to vacate their seats. If the mandatory fast-tracking of by-elections is approved by Parliament's upper chamber and the NLD follows a similar course in selecting several cabinet members from the ranks of its recently elected MPs, Burma could see another large by-election by year's end. The NLD dominated last month's nationwide poll, winning nearly 80 percent of elected seats and ensuring that it will form the next government in early 2016. At present, the country's three election laws—covering the Upper House, Lower House and regional legislatures—state simply: "If there is a vacancy for Hluttaw [Parliament] representative due to any reason in the Parliament, it shall be substituted by election in accord with the law." The post Lower House Approves Fast-Tracking of By-Elections appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Burma’s Rice Market in a Tight Spot, Sources Say Posted: 17 Dec 2015 03:02 AM PST Workers unload bags of rice from a boat at a jetty on the bank of Yangon river October 23, 2015. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters) RANGOON — Fueled by lower domestic yields and fierce Chinese demand, Burma's rice market has found itself on shaky ground, with local prices among the highest in the region, rice industry sources said. Rice is Burma's major export item, but widespread flooding in July and August, as well as increasing crop prices, has weakened the commodity's trading power. Lu Maw Myint Maung, executive director of Shwe Wah Yaung Agriculture Production Co., based in Rangoon, said, "One ton of 5-percent broken grain rice goes for around US$400 in Burma. But in Thai and Vietnamese markets, the price is just around $350." "There is a gap of about $50," he said. Myint Cho, director of the Ministry of Commerce, said that as China's demand for rice shipments across the border was growing each year, rice exporters were increasing targeting the neighboring market. "Exporting rice [to China] is legal here [in Burma], but importing rice [from Burma] is illegal in China, meaning that there are no taxes and that China can offer higher prices," he said. Although China officially banned rice imports from Burma in 2014, in lieu of assurances that most rice be milled and meet certain quality standards, the rice trade across the Sino-Burmese border accounts for a majority of Burma's total rice exports. Chinese importers have reportedly offered to pay $460 per ton of rice for land shipments but only $330 to $350 per ton for seaborne rice imports. "It's clear that merchants will want to export to China by land," Myint Cho said. The record high price in Burma's domestic market has prompted some regional rice merchants to propose exporting rice to Burma, said Ye Min Aung, secretary of the Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF). "A group from Thailand came and met with the Federation. They said that they want to sell rice to us because Burma has the highest price for rice in the international market. There are also other groups that have proposed selling rice to us when the AEC [ASEAN Economic Community] comes into operation next year," he said. Another factor that has contributed to the mounting price of rice in Burma is the ongoing depreciation of the kyat. Currently, the local currency is at 1,300 kyat against the dollar. Rice exporters added that there has also been an uptick in the price of key agricultural imports. Certain benefits are therefore lost on farmers, who have to absorb these additional price hikes. "As the prices of fertilizers and pesticides have increased due to dollar appreciation, production costs have also increased," said Ye Min Aung. On top of this, many farmers have to pay back loans—many of which range in price from 550,000 to 600,000 kyat—that they took out from the Ministry of Cooperatives to purchase farming machinery. This "hire purchase system" racks up a steep debt for many farmers. For the 2014-15 fiscal year, Burma exported approximately 1.8 million tons of rice—a record export volume. Of this, 1.3 million tons of rice went to China. The post Burma's Rice Market in a Tight Spot, Sources Say appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Hpakant Locals Allege KIA Detention of Jade Mine Protesters Posted: 17 Dec 2015 02:51 AM PST Trucks at a Hpakant jade mine in Kachin State, Nov. 25. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters) MANDALAY — Locals who blocked trucks from dumping jade mine waste near their homes in Hpakant have allegedly been detained by members of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA). According to local villagers in Hpakant, the epicenter of Burma's immensely lucrative jade trade, five men and two women who organized the blockade were taken away from their homes by men identifying themselves as KIA members on Monday night. Kai Rwae, a villager who spoke to media about the blockade protest, and a member of a local civil society organization were allegedly among those detained. "The men said they are from the KIA and wanted to talk with the protesters. When they met with these seven people, they asked them to get into a truck and drove away," said a family member, who requested anonymity. "We called the KIA to inquire the case, but we can't get through yet. We've lost contact with our family members and heard nothing about them. We are worried for their lives and our own safety," he added. The Irrawaddy was unable to reach KIA representatives for comment on Thursday. Locals from Seng La, Mazut Pyan, Aung Larang and Seng Khar have been staging the blockade since Dec. 10, claiming that waste piles brought into the vicinity of their villages have damaged crops and heightened the risk of landslides and flooding. Recent reports suggest a massive increase in the scale of jade mining in the area, ahead of the transition to a new government at the end of March. Authorities met with the protesters on Sunday, threatening legal action if the blockade was not called off. The post Hpakant Locals Allege KIA Detention of Jade Mine Protesters appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

TNLA Claims Govt Uses Helicopter Gunships in Latest Clashes Posted: 17 Dec 2015 01:24 AM PST Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) soldiers stand guard in Manton Township, northern Shan State, on Jan. 15, 2014. (Photo: Reuters) The Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) is reporting that its troops and the Burma Army have clashed 13 times over the last five days in northern Shan State, with the ethnic Palaung armed group claiming that the government twice called in aerial firepower. "The fighting continues every day. It has been for four days already. There was also fighting this morning. They used helicopters to fire on our troops on the 14th and 15th [of December]," Tar Jode Jar, vice chairman of the TNLA, told The Irrawaddy on Thursday. This morning's hostilities in Namhsan Township, Shan State, took place between the TNLA's Battalion 434 and Burma Army troops from Light Infantry Division 77, according to the TNLA's information department. No information concerning causalities on either side was yet available, the TNLA posted on its Facebook page. TNLA sources said the heightened frequency of the clashes, which began on Sunday, was due to increased military operations by the Burma Army in territory claimed by the ethnic rebel group. Mai Aie Kyaw, a spokesperson for the TNLA, said fighting between the TNLA and the government army this morning last about 30 minutes. The TNLA suffered no casualties in the skirmish, he added. The TNLA was not among the ethnic armed groups that the government deemed eligible to sign a so-called nationwide ceasefire agreement in October. While eight non-state armed groups signed the accord with the government, several others, including major groups such as the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Shan State Army-North (SSA-N) and United Wa State Army (UWSA), opted not to join the pact for the time being, with many citing concerns about its inclusivity. Elsewhere fighting has flared in recent months between the SSA-N and the Burma Army in Shan State, as well as government troops and their KIA counterparts in Kachin State, even as the outgoing government has convened ceasefire signatories to begin laying the groundwork for political dialogue as the peace process's next step. The state-run Global New Light of Myanmar reported on Wednesday that 700 representatives from the Burma Army, political parties including the National League for Democracy (NLD), lawmakers, government officials and the eight ceasefire signatories, will join the political dialogue. The post TNLA Claims Govt Uses Helicopter Gunships in Latest Clashes appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Scenes From Southern Shan State Posted: 16 Dec 2015 11:54 PM PST Click to view slideshow. It is truly a pleasure to travel to places like the Shan highlands during Burma's cold season, when photos pop with an added crispness, and putting paint to canvas comes with added inspiration. Traveling across southern Shan State, and taking pictures of marketplaces in Taunggyi, Nyaung Shwe, Hsi Hseng, Heho, and Naung Htaung, I had a chance to learn about the socioeconomic day to day of the region's inhabitants. It is best, I think, to peruse local markets to learn this sort of thing. As I traveled through Shan State, I arrived by chance at Mount Myinmu near Myinmu village in Ywangan Township. Along the road from Taunggyi to Ywangan, stunning scenery unfolds, landscapes ideal for photography or the artistically inclined. This slice of Burma is still relatively unspoiled. Colorful plantations, blue-tinted mountains and cool breezes all together make for spectacular scenery. Local villages are hospitable and never hesitant to welcome guests, a friend who knows about the region told me. The road linking Taunggyi, Ywangan and Mandalay is improving, and while this is certainly to the benefit of many, I cannot help but wonder what the consequences of better transportation will be for the region's pastoral way of life. The post Scenes From Southern Shan State appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Japan’s Asylum Applications Exceed 2014 Level by End-Oct. Posted: 16 Dec 2015 09:41 PM PST Dang Nguyen Thuc Vien (C), a 32-year-old daughter of refugees from south Vietnam, helps a local Vietnamese resident in Japan as an interpreter at a hospital in Kanagawa prefecture, south of Tokyo, Japan, November 25, 2015.  (Photo: Yuya Shino / Reuters) TOKYO — The number of people seeking asylum in Japan this year hit a full-year record by the end of October, government data shows, as looser visa rules and severe labor shortages attract more of those fleeing conflict and poverty. Japan runs the tightest refugee recognition system among industrialized economies, accepting only 11 refugees last year. That prompted calls for Japan, which has offered nearly US$2 billion to nations hit by a flood of refugees from Syria, to take more asylum seekers from the Middle East. A Justice Ministry document seen by Reuters showed 6,160 people filed asylum claims by Oct. 31, exceeding last year's record of 5,000, to reach a fifth consecutive annual high. Nobuhiro Tsuru, an official at the ministry's refugee recognition department, would not comment on the data because it had not been officially published, but confirmed that "around 6,100" had applied. More than half of Japan's asylum seekers in 2014 hailed from Nepal, Sri Lanka and Turkey. Tsuru would not say which countries contributed the most asylum seekers this year, saying only that they were "roughly the same" as last year. Legal changes in 2010 that gave asylum seekers access to work permits have boosted applications, he said. Many find work in Japan's manufacturing and construction industries, suffering from labor shortages as the population ages. A Reuters investigation in July showed many work in Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd auto brand Subaru's supply chain. Refugee advocates and policy experts say the increasing numbers claiming asylum are part of a global trend of increased flows of refugees and migrants, coupled with relaxed rules on entry to Japan. "The hurdles to reach Japan have become lowered for many, including asylum seekers," said Eri Ishikawa of the Japan Association for Refugees, citing eased restrictions on tourist visas introduced by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Experts blame last year's low intake of refugees on a lack of planning for their protection and resettlement, as well as a dysfunctional system for processing claims. Nearly 18 million foreign tourists visited Japan by the end of November this year, up almost 50 percent from the same period a year earlier, government data published on Tuesday shows. The spike in asylum seekers since 2010 has led Japan to tighten its refugee recognition system, in a bid to cut what it calls "abusive" applications. Changes announced in September scrap the automatic grant of work permits to asylum seekers, and allow some to be barred from making multiple reapplications. The post Japan's Asylum Applications Exceed 2014 Level by End-Oct. appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

US Seeks Answers in Case of Missing Laos Activist Posted: 16 Dec 2015 09:35 PM PST Winners of the Ramon Magsaysay Awards, including Sombath Somphone (far left), pose for a photograph during a ceremony in Manila, August 31, 2005. (Photo: Romeo Ranoco / Reuters) WASHINGTON — The United States called Wednesday for Laos to immediately resolve the case of a prominent activist whose abduction three years ago sent a "chilling message" to civil society. The State Department statement came as the top US envoy for East Asia prepares to travel to communist-governed Laos, which next year will chair the Southeast Asian regional bloc, a key diplomatic partner for Washington. The activist, Sombath Somphone, was abducted from a police checkpoint in the capital Vientiane on Dec. 15, 2012. Closed circuit television showed him being escorted by two men to a pickup truck and driven away. Department spokesman John Kirby said the US is troubled that no progress has been made in locating Somphone and called on the Laotian government to conduct a thorough and transparent investigation. "The United States remains deeply concerned over his fate and the chilling message his abduction sends to members of civil society and the people of Laos more broadly," Kirby said. Laos has denied its security apparatus was behind the disappearance and says an investigation continues, but has provided little information about it despite repeated appeals from the US and other Western nations. Sombath championed young people's participation in development and in 2005 won the Magsaysay Award, Asia's equivalent of the Nobel Peace Prize. He was not considered overtly political but his advocacy for civil society may have been considered a threat by the authoritarian regime that has ruled since 1975. Also Wednesday, Democratic Rep. Alan Lowenthal criticized suppression of labor rights, persecution of ethnic minorities like the Hmong and detention of political prisoners in Laos. "As Laos prepares to chair the ASEAN next year and the US and Laos seek greater ties, we must make sure that human rights are a priority for the United States in developing this relationship," he said, referring to the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations. He was speaking at a human rights seminar on Capitol Hill. President Barack Obama is expected to visit Laos next fall when it hosts a summit of East Asian leaders. Obama would be the first US president to visit the country, which was heavily bombed by the US during the Vietnam War. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel will meet with government and party officials in Vientiane this week. T. Kumar, international advocacy director for Amnesty International USA, said that an annual gathering of international and regional non-government organizations usually held in the country that chairs ASEAN will be held elsewhere to protest Somphone's disappearance. The post US Seeks Answers in Case of Missing Laos Activist appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Vietnam Builds Military Muscle to Face China Posted: 16 Dec 2015 09:18 PM PST Soldiers of the army force march during a parade marking their 70th National Day at Ba Dinh square in Hanoi, Vietnam, September 2, 2015.  (Photo: Kham / Reuters) XUAN MAI, Vietnam — Vietnam's military is steeling itself for conflict with China as it accelerates a decade-long modernization drive, Hanoi's biggest arms buildup since the height of the Vietnam War. The ruling Communist Party's goal is to deter its giant northern neighbor as tensions rise over the disputed South China Sea, and if that fails, to be able to defend itself on all fronts, senior officers and people close to them told Reuters. Vietnam's strategy has moved beyond contingency planning. Key units have been placed on "high combat readiness"—an alert posture to fend off a sudden attack—including its elite Division 308, which guards the mountainous north. The two countries fought a bloody border war in 1979. The likely flashpoint this time is in the South China Sea, where they have rival claims in the Spratly and Paracel archipelagos. "We don't want to have a conflict with China and we must put faith in our policy of diplomacy," one senior Vietnamese government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters. "But we know we must be ready for the worst." Most significantly, Hanoi is creating a naval deterrent largely from scratch with the purchase of six advanced Kilo-class submarines from Russia. In recent months, the first of those submarines have started patrolling the South China Sea, Vietnamese and foreign military officials said, the first confirmation the vessels have been in the strategic waterway. Division 308 Militarily, the tensions are palpable northwest of Hanoi at the headquarters of Division 308, Vietnam's most elite military unit, where senior army officers talk repeatedly about "high combat readiness." The phrase is on billboards beneath images of missiles and portraits of Vietnam's late revolutionary founder, Ho Chi Minh, and its legendary military hero, General Vo Nguyen Giap. Perched between Vietnam's craggy northern mountains and the ancient rice paddies of the Red River Delta, 308 is Vietnam's oldest division and still effectively guards the northern approaches to Hanoi. Reflecting deep-set official sensibilities towards offending Beijing, one senior officer, Colonel Le Van Hai, said he could not talk about China. But Vietnam was ready to repel any foreign force, he told Reuters during a rare visit by a foreign reporter. "Combat readiness is the top priority of the division, of the Ministry of Defense and the country. We can deal with any sudden or unexpected situation … We are ready," he said. "High combat readiness," along with references to the "new situation," increasingly feature in lectures by senior officers during visits to military bases and in publications of the People's Army of Vietnam. The phrases also surface in talks with foreign military delegations, diplomats said. "When Vietnam refers to the 'new situation,' they are using coded language to refer to the rising likelihood of an armed confrontation or clash with China, particularly in the South China Sea," said Carl Thayer, a professor at Australia's Defence Force Academy in Canberra who has studied Vietnam's military since the late 1960s. While ramping up combat readiness, Hanoi's once-reclusive generals are reaching out to a broad range of strategic partners. Russia and India are the main source of advanced weapons, training and intelligence cooperation. Hanoi is also building ties with the United States and its Japanese, Australian and Filipino allies, as well as Europe and Israel. The outreach covers weapons purchases, ship visits and intelligence sharing but will have its limits. Hanoi shuns formal military alliances under a staunchly independent foreign policy. Vietnam is seeking more Russian jet fighter-bombers and is in talks with European and US arms manufacturers to buy fighter and maritime patrol planes and unarmed surveillance drones, sources have told Reuters. It has also recently upgraded and expanded air defenses, including obtaining early warning surveillance radars from Israel and advanced S-300 surface-to-air missile batteries from Russia. Indeed, increases in Vietnam's military spending have outstripped its South East Asian neighbors over the last decade, according to estimates by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). "They are not doing this for national day parades … they are building real military capabilities," said Tim Huxley, a regional security expert at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in Singapore. Oil Rig Flashpoint While communist parties rule both Vietnam and China and share political bonds, the two countries have a history marked by armed conflict and long periods of lingering mistrust. Fresh academic research has revealed how the Sino-Vietnamese war in 1979 was more intense than is widely known, rumbling on into the mid-1980s. The two sides then clashed at sea in 1988 when China occupied its first holdings in the Spratly archipelago of the South China Sea—a defeat still acutely felt in Hanoi. China also took full control of another South China Sea island chain, the Paracels, after a naval showdown with then South Vietnam in 1974. Hanoi still protests China's occupation. More recently, China's placement of an oil rig in disputed waters for 10 weeks in the middle of last year sparked anti-Chinese riots across Vietnam. The rig's placement on Vietnam's continental shelf 80 nautical miles from its coast was a game-changer, officials in Hanoi privately said, hardening suspicions about Chinese President Xi Jinping among political and military leaders. Hanoi dispatched dozens of Vietnamese civilian vessels to confront the 70 coastguard and naval warships China sent to protect the oil rig in mid-2014. "It was a reminder to all of us just how dangerous the South China Sea has become," said one retired US naval officer. For its part, China's military strategists have long been frustrated at the two dozen military outposts that Hanoi has fortified across the Spratlys since losing the Paracels in 1974, Chinese analysts say. China is building three air strips on man-made islands it is building on reefs in the Spratlys that it took from Vietnamese forces in 1988. A statement to Reuters from China's Defense Ministry said the two militaries had close, friendly relations and China was willing to work hard with Vietnam for regional peace. "Both sides have frank exchanges of view on the South China Sea … both sides should look for a basic, lasting solution both sides can accept," the statement said. China's historic claim to most of the South China Sea, expressed on maps as a nine-dash line, overlaps the exclusive economic zones of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. Taiwan also has claims in the area. Some US$5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes through the waterway every year, including most of the oil imported by China, Japan and South Korea. 'Psychological Uncertainty' The importance to China of protecting its submarine base on Hainan Island—the projected home of its future nuclear armed submarine fleet—could be another flashpoint. Beijing also has jet fighters and many of its best warships stationed around Hainan Island. This South Sea Fleet is close to Vietnam's northern coast and its vital deep water access channels to the South China Sea and beyond. Vietnamese generals make clear to foreign visitors they know their limitations. Two decades of double-digit increases in defense budgets have given China a vastly larger and better equipped navy, air force and army. Foreign military envoys say they struggle to gauge Vietnam's actual capabilities and how well they are integrating complex new weapons. They are given little access beyond Hanoi's gilded staterooms. Vietnamese military strategists talk of creating a "minimal credible deterrent"—raising the costs of any Chinese move against Vietnam, whether it is a naval confrontation or an attack across the 1,400-km (875-mile) northern land border. If conflict did break out, Hanoi could target Chinese-flagged merchant container and oil ships in the South China Sea, said Thayer, who said he was told this by Vietnamese strategists. The aim would be not to defeat China's superior forces but "to inflict sufficient damage and psychological uncertainty to cause Lloyd's insurance rates to skyrocket and for foreign investors to panic," Thayer said in a paper presented to a Singapore conference last month. Vietnam's foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment on this story. The post Vietnam Builds Military Muscle to Face China appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

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