Monday, January 11, 2016

Shan Herald Agency for News

Shan Herald Agency for News


Decisions and minutes made during NCA

Posted: 11 Jan 2016 04:45 AM PST

According to Article 30 of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), decisions agreed during its negotiations should be referred to and included in its implementation.

Failure to disclose these decisions which were negotiated during the 9 formal meetings between the government and the armed resistance movements has led to several unnecessary misconceptions both by the public and, regrettably, even among those who had negotiated them.

For instance, Article 23 states that "a reasonable number/ ratio" of women representatives will be included in the political dialogue process. Decision #22 meanwhile specifies that "a reasonable number/ ratio" means "to strive to include 30% of women representatives." The point was made clear only later in the Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC)'s  Terms of Reference (TOR).

It is therefore hoped that the following informal rendering of the 36 decisions will help clear at least some of the misreadings of the NCA.

The translator's hope is that the translation does not rock anyone's boat.

Reference                           Decisions
  1. Title The word "ceasefire" will be used for translation.
  2. Preamble The words "Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement" will be used for translation.
  3. Article 4 "စစ်ဖက်ဆိုင်ရာကျင့်ဝက်နှင့်ပတ်သက်သည့်နှစ်ဖက်အပြန်အလှန်လိုက်နာရမည့်
    ပစ်ခတ်တိုက်ခိုက်မှုရပ်စဲရေးဆိုင်ရာကျင့်ဝက်စည်းကမ်းများ" means the agreements already entered into and "သဘောတူညီထားသည့်စစ်ဖက်ဆိုင်ရာကျင့်ဝက်များ" means Military Code of Conduct
  1. Article 5 (c) The definition of the word "အပစ်ရပ်နယ်မြေ" (ceasefire area) as well as the                         whole paragraph will be reconsidered during subsequent meetings
  2. Article 7 (b) Coordination on redeployment of troops will be based on the following
conditions:
  1. Positions apparently threatening to those of the other party
  2. Positions susceptible to confrontations
  3. Positions in the proximity of civilian communities
  4. Article 10 (a)
  • Approves "ပြည်တွင်းနေရပ်စွန့်ခွာတိမ်းရှောင်သူများ" as the Burmese designation for IDPs
  • Both parties will strive to seek humanitarian assistance for needy IDPs and conflict victims during the ceasefire period
Note The ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) had objected to inclusion of the words "implementing delivery of humanitarian assistance with the approval of the government"
  1. Article 11 A joint work team will be formed to draft the military code of conduct (CoC),Terms of reference (TOR) for the Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee (JMC) and military matters
  1. Article 12 (a)(b) The Joint Work Team will continue drafting monitoring models for the JMC
TOR
  1. Article 13 (a) TOR for JMCs at difference levels will be drafted and approved in accordance
with the terms agreed in the NCA within one month after its signing
  1. Article 13
  • (The two parties) will coordinate for inclusion of locals acceptable to both parties in the different levels of the JMC mechanism if necessary
  • "Locals acceptable to both parties" means local CBO/CSOs
  1. Article 20 Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) and Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team
(NCCT) technical team shall jointly draft the definitions of the terms used in the political roadmap to be submitted to the UPWC and the NCCT
  1. Article 20 (C) As the word "အမျိုးသား" (national) covers the whole country, the word "အမျိုးသားများ" (nationals/nationalities) is removed
  1. Article 20 (f) Items from the NCA and the Union Accord which require legal endorsement will be submitted to the (union) legislature for ratification
  1. Article 20 (g) The two parties will continue to confer on concepts related to "Security Sector Reintegration matters"
  • The words "Security Sector Reintegration" mean Security Sector Reform (SSR) and Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR)
  • The two parties agree to jointly assure that negotiations on the security sector reintegration will not delay, obstruct or impair in any way the political dialogue at different levels
  1. Article 21 (a)
*actually 21 (b)*           "ပါ၀င်သင့်ပါ၀င်ထိုက်သူများ" (relevant stakeholders) mean political parties and academics
  1. Article 21 (a)2 The Union Peacemaking Work Committee (UPWC) proposal "to approve the members of the government in the UPDJC after the TOR has been accepted" is provisionally adopted
*The wordings in Burmese here are unclear to translator*
  1. Article 21 (a)2    The UPDJC must supervise and be responsible for political dialogue at different levels
  1. Article 21 (d) Clarification on the words "issues that violate" ( the government's
Three Causes i.e. Non-disintegration of the Union, Non-disintegration of National Solidarity and perpetuation of National Sovereignty) will be conferred and decided by the UPDJC
  1. Article 21 (e) Signatories will hold political dialogues with relevant stakeholders before seeking approval from the Union Legislature
  1. Article 21 (f) The decision-making procedure will be spelled out in the Framework for
*Actually 21 (b)*       Political Dialogue (FPD) drafting
  1. Article 22(a) (b) "Ethnic representatives" means those who are not represented in the government, legislature, military, EAOs and political parties
  1. Article 23 "A reasonable number/ratio" means all parties will strive for inclusion of 30% of  women representatives in the political dialogue
  1. Article 25 (a) There have been discussions to  designate the definition and timeframe for the Interim Period
  1. Article 25 (a)1 There will be no impositions to limit or restrict educational programs run by the EAOs in respective ceasefire areas
  1. Article 25 (a)2 "Environmental conservation" will include coordination on land and resources management as proposed by the EAOs
  1. Article 25 (b)2 (Concerning planning of projects in ceasefire areas during Interim Period) To coordinate on land and resources management
  1. Article 25 (b) The two parties will be thorough and meticulous in carrying out projects planned inside ceasefire areas
  1. Article 33 The signing by leaders of both parties will strengthen the peace process
  2. Article 33 The UPWC confirms that government leaders led by the President will sign the NCA
  1. Article 33 It is agreed to invite signing by domestic witnesses, 10 as proposed by the EAOs and political parties and national race affairs ministers as proposed by the UPWC
  1. Article 33 UPWC agrees to invite international witnesses as proposed by the EAOs: UN, China, India and Thailand
  1. Article 33 In addition, the NCA will be signed in the presence of the following country representatives: EU, USA, UK, Norway and Japan.
  1. Article 33 Information on the NCA agreed by both parties will be published for public awareness
  1. Article 33 The UPWC will respond to the EAOs' proposal that the 88 Generation Students be included in the domestic witnesses category
  1. Article 33 The two parties have agreed on every item in the draft with the exception of the EAOs that should be included in the signing
  1. Article 33 The UPWC will forward the proposal made by the EAOs for their top leaders to meet with the President
Note 9 top EAO leaders met the President on 9 September 2015

By SAI KHUENSAI / Director of Pyidaungsu Institute and Founder of Shan Herald Agency for News (S.H.A.N)

All views expressed are the author's own.


Burma Top trio's Independence Day messages, breaching of NCA and the Union Peace Conference

Posted: 10 Jan 2016 11:08 PM PST

As Burma makes a rocky new year start, with the Burma Army (Tatmadaw) attacking a position of Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA), popularly known as SSA South, that has signed the government initiated nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA), in eastern Shan State on 31 December 2015, the three Burmese top leaders, considered to be the movers and shakers of the country, delivered Independence Day messages, which were quite different  in essence, when one takes pain to read them between the lines.

President Thein Sein, the ex-military general, talked about discipline-flourishing democracy, while Aung San Suu, head of the National League for Democracy (NLD), reiterated her commitment to the establishing of genuine federalism and vowed to bring forward the controversial NCA to become all-inclusive, as the Commander-in-Chief emphasized and defended the military of waging a "just war" for the purpose of the people and its commitment to defend the country's sovereignty an territorial integrity.

Let us look into it, with an eye fixed on the Union Peace Conference, scheduled to be held from 12 to 16 January 2016, which should be the first step to iron out the political differences and grievances that have existed for decades, between military adversaries and ethnic nationalities, Bamar included.

President Thein Sein

President Thein Sein in his Independence Day message on 4 January explained that at the moment the country is transitioning to a democratic state, in a three tier approach, reported the Global New Light of Myanmar.

The first tier consists of drafting and adopting the Constitution as preparatory groundwork for democracy, conducting the 2010 general elections and making preparations for the formation of the first Hluttaw (Parliament) and the Government and conducting the second general elections in 2015 putting the country on the path to democracy. The second tier consists of a gentle transition to democracy that has won international recognition and led to a significant improvement in the international relations of Myanmar. The third tier involves political dialogue to resolve issues such as internal and external conflicts and problems of national groups to achieve a more mature and established democracy.

In closing, he finally urged all the people to work in unity for the realization of the following four goals of the 68th anniversary celebrations of the Independence Day with commitment, a sense of responsibility and allegiance to the nation:
-        To have all the nationals living in the Union together in ever-lasting harmony;
-        To safeguard the non-disintegration of the Union, non-disintegration of national unity and  perpetuation of sovereignty through the efforts of all the national people;
-        To make an endeavour to achieve a nation-wide ceasefire agreement and enduring peace;
-        To realize a discipline-flourishing new modern developed democratic nation through the people's strength. 

Aung San Suu Kyi

On the occasion of the 68thIndependence Day anniversary, on 4 January 2016, held at the NLD Head Office,  Aung San Suu Kyi revealed her priority setting among others to her audience as follows: "The first duty for the incoming government is to build peace. We must hold a real effective peace convention and make the presently signed ceasefire treaty to be more all-inclusive. After that we all must try that genuine democratic federal union of the future be built, as soon as possible. In doing so all citizens, Tatmadaw (military) and ethnic nationalities must be involved. Not only the whole country that has good will on us, the whole world would also need to help."

"As during the struggle for independence, all nationalities based on Panglong spirit and agreement had strived together, at this moment, (we) should all work together to build a genuine federal union," stressed Aung San Suu Kyi.

On the same day, in a statement supporting her speech, her party executive committee said that it is time to get rid of the bad legacy and aimed to build a democratic federal union through good experiences of unity, peace and democracy as an ultimate goal.

Her priority setting remarks made clear that she intended to change the structure and path of the peace process put in place by President U Thein Sein's military-backed government once her own administration takes office in late March following her party's landslide election victory.

Suu Kyi had rebuffed the signing of the nationwide ceasefire accord at a grand ceremony hosted by the president in Naypyitaw on October 15, 2015 and she also confirmed, when she told Radio Free Asia, recently that due to her work load at the parliament, she would not attend the first Union Peace Conference – the next stage of political dialogue – with the ceasefire signatories to be held on January 12, 2016.

On 10  January, Suu Kyi reportedly made a change of heart and said that she would give a ten minute speech at the opening of the Union Peace Convention, according to various media outlet, which was confirmed by U Nyan Win in Voice of America.

Min Aung Hlaing

On the same Independence Day, speaking at a ceremony honouring soldiers for their service Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing said the country's ongoing civil war was for the benefit of the nation's citizens, according to the 5 January report in Global New Light of Myanmar.

He said: "Today, we are fighting for our nation, our people and our Tatmadaw, if we have to say the truth, all Tatmadaw men, including the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services, take an oath that they will fight only for justice. It is the inherent duty of all citizens to protect, as national task, our land, air and water territories, as well as lives and property of all nationalities." 

Apart from taking credit that it is the Tatmadaw that has allowed and paved the way for democratization and multi-party parliamentary system, he stressed that the it will be around for quite a while by buttressing the point that "Myanmar Tatmadaw cannot be separated from nation-building and state-building tasks, as it has had the tradition of being involved in national politics." 

War in Kachin, Shan and Arakan states

While Thein Sein regime is geared to hold the Union Peace Conference on 12 January with pomp and ceremony, inviting some 1,200 people, the war in Kachin, Shan and Arakan states goes on, with no sign of ending in the near future.

The military according to Myanmar Times of 8 January, said that it will eliminate the Arakan Army (AA), following two weeks of armed clashes in remote Arakan (Rakhine) State that had killed 20 Tatmadaw soldiers including a battalion commander.

In Shan State, the Tatmadaw launched heavy offensives in early October against forces of the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA), better known as SSA North, an ethnic armed group that refused to sign the nationwide ceasefire agreement.

The fighting, which displaced an estimated 10,000 people and prevented elections from being held in two townships, subsided in late November after the two sides reached a preliminary agreement involving a limited withdrawal of Tatmadaw forces. Despite the agreement on the return of IDPs, many civilians were still afraid to return to their occupied villages, or were blocked by the military from doing so.

As if to disrupt the signing of the NCA, prior to signing the NCA for a few weeks on 16 September 2015, the Tatmadaw from LIBs 152 and 99 unleashed an offensive against the SSA South near Kholam sub-township Namzang township, Shan State, using helicopters and reportedly fighter jets, which nearly made the latter to opt out of the peace process, had it not been for the patience and eagerness of Sao Yawd Serk, head of the RCSS, to sign the treaty.

Despite of such patience and bending over backwards, again on New Year's eve, according to SSA South spokesman,  the Tatmadaw attacked their position at about 1 p.m. on 31 December 2015, in Mong Peng Township in eastern Shan State's Monghsat distrit. The clash allegedly lasted one hour and involved the Tatmadaw Infantry Battalion No. 278. He said one soldier was killed and another wounded on RCSS side.

This incidence was, however, downplayed when the RCSS protested in earnest that the terms of NCA might need to be reviewed.

Colonel Wunna Aung of Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee (JMC) said that it was an accidental clash for the RCSS troops movement came near to the Tatmadaw position, which the former said that their troops have been around for years as guerilla movement, even before the signing of NCA, but only lately have established temporary base camps and misunderstood by the Tatmadaw as expanding their areas of influence.

Union Peace Conference

To keep up with the timeline of 90 days and start the political dialogue, Union Peace Conference is scheduled to take place from 12 to 16 January.

As agreed by the Union Political Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) - made up of the government/parliament, 8 ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and political parties, each having 16 representatives respectively, making a body of 48 altogether - 150 representatives each from, the government/parliament, the Tatmadaw, political parties, 8 EAOs and 50 representatives each from non-signatories EAOs and other invited individuals including outside experts, altogether 700 plus nearly 500 others, including the non-signatory EAOs, are slated to attend the conference.

Accordingly, the UPDJC agreed to discuss five topics at the country's first political dialogue following a two-day preparatory meeting at the Myanmar Peace Centre (MPC)  on 6 January, reported the Global New Light of Myanmar on 7 January.

The five agenda items include political issues, economic issues and social issues, security and land and natural resources management. The stakeholders used the two-day pre-meeting to prepare for the discussion, said U Aung Naing Oo, a programme director at the Myanmar Peace Center (MPC).

On 6 January, U Hla Maung Shwe, a senior adviser at the MPC, said that the special invitees include the three groups the government is not engaged in armed conflict with, and seven groups that turned down the government's invitation to sign the ceasefire, according to the Myanmar Times.

"Seven representatives from each of the seven groups and three delegates each from the Wa National Organization, the Lahu Democratic Union and the Arakan National Council were sent invitations," he said.

The invitations continued to exclude the three armed ethnic groups fighting the government troops in the Kokang self-administered areas: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA).

On 7 January, an armed ethnic alliance United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), that did not sign an October ceasefire agreement with the Burmese regime announced that it will not participate in upcoming political dialogue.

UNFC spokesman Twan Zaw, who also serves as secretary of the Arakan National Council, said after a   meeting that the group won't participate in the conference, stating three points as the reason.

The first is the lack of all-inclusiveness, the second the government's "discriminatory" treatment of non-signatories and third, the framework for the dialogue drafted by signatories in December is not what the UNFC wants.

Likewise, the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and National Democratic Alliance Army-Eastern Shan State (NDAA-ESS), popularly known as Mong La, also confirmed the rejection of the regime's invitation on 7 January, according to Eleven Media Group.

The UWSA spokesman Zhao Guo-an said that since the government is still engaging in armed conflict with the RCSS, TNLA, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), also known as Kokang, and AA there is no point to attend the conference and that it will negotiate with the incoming new government and intend to make peace in Wa region.

NDAA-ESS spokesman U Kyi Myint aka Zhang Zhiming said: "We are not all walking in the same direction. It is better all armed groups participate in the peace talks but not all groups have been invited. We are not supporting it and we will not attend the conference."

On 5 January, 126 civil society organizations urged government negotiators, known as the Union Peacemaking Working Committee, and the eight ethnic armed group signatories to postpone the talks in Naypyitaw because of ongoing conflict in Arakan, Kachin and Shan States.

Furthermore, in its seven point statement, one of it pinpoints: "We are of the position that changing the concept of political dialogue based on a tripartite representation as outlined in the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement into that of a pentagonal representation has the potential to weaken the focus on developing a federal union based on democracy and ethnic equality, which are central to Burma's political problem."

Apart from such rejections, Hkun Htun Oo, leader of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) and United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) told SHAN and Radio Free Asia that he couldn't see any benefit of holding the conference which was not inclusive and didn't want to go down in the history as a culprit endorsing the wrong move. Other than that, he said that he had not signed the NCA and that there is also no point to attend the Union Peace Conference now.

Analysis

The careful study of the three most important Bamar leaders revealed what they might have in store, as their future political outlook of the country.

President Thein Sein is no doubt, a staunch proponent of the military inspired "discipline-flourishing democracy", as outlined in his Independence Day message. As such, although not spelling out word for word, his strategic goal is a watered down, presidential unitary system with some devolution involved in power-sharing, giving a semblance of a federal union. A far cry from the position of the ethnic nationalities' aspired national state-based federalism, as envisaged by the Panglong Agreement of 1947.

Thus, it is safe to conclude that his political goal is, at the least, a gradual withdrawal – say after 10 to 15 years later, as his Commander-in-Chief have time and again reiterated to the press - of the military from political arena, once the military desired fall-back position is secured. But whether this could be achievable or accommodated at this juncture is totally another question.

Aung San Suu Kyi reiterated her stance of all-inclusiveness in the signing of NCA and made it a point in her new year message that this will be her government main task, so that peace and reconciliation within the mould of a genuine federalism could be achieved, as soon as possible.

At one time, not so long ago, she even said that Bamar is also an ethnic group and one of the ethnic nationalities, a far cry from the military and most Bamar politicians posture of wanting to be aloof in relation to ethnic nationality label and staying above it as a dominating political class.

In contrast, Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing in his new year speech at a ceremony honouring soldiers for their service make it plain that the Tatmadaw waging wars on the ethnic resistance forces are justified in protecting sovereignty and territorial integrity. It seems the ethnic nationalities' position of political grievances of not having a fair political and resources sharing have not been heard and understood, after all these years.

The ethnic nationalities opted for armed resistance as they were unable to address their grievances in political arena, which in effect are their right to shared-sovereignty, equality and rights of self-determination.

Min Aung Hlaing further made a point that the military has paved the way for the recent democratization and multi-party system and is not about to opt out of the political arena anytime soon.

Finally, the Union Peace Conference won't be attended by the UNFC, UWSA and NDAA-ESS.
This means the conference will again be a partial-conference, lacking the all-inclusive nature of being nationwide, aside from the rejection of the more than 100 Civil Society Organizations on the same ground.

At this writing, the UPDJC is said to be drawing outline and principles on how to determine the five sphere of political, economy, social, security, land use and environmental protection, which will be discussed at the first Union Peace Conference. If it is just an introduction to later further develop during the incoming NLD regime, it is fine and good. But if this is to impose on the new regime, with the present UPDJC dominated by the military and its like-minded coalition that is not at all inclusive, it would only be imposing one's will on the other. And this can't be good for the country.

The most crucial point, however, is the determination on how a federal form of government be agreed upon. And the outlines and principles prescribed by the recent UPDJC setting couldn't be appropriate, as it has no exclusive right to do so.

For the ethnic nationalities leadership, most of which are non-signatories of the NCA, including ethnic political parties and civil societies, also have their own version of federalism aspiration based on Panglong agreement (promises), 1948 Union of Burma Constitution and 1961 Federal Proposal, which are historical documents and treaty that need to be taken into account. And the incorporation of the ethnic desired guideline or principle is a necessity, when deliberation of the future federal union is considered within the Union Peace Conference.

The Union Peace Conference is supposed to be a second Panglong Conference, if it is to the liking of Aung San Suu Kyi and  the ethnic nationalities in general. And the conference is now going to be a testing ground on how power-sharing and resources-sharing be conducted.

The end game scenario is going to be the struggle between the entrenched old power of the military, determined not to fade away anytime soon, by doing everything it can to secure its leading role in political decision-making apparatus for unforeseeable future and the combined people's power vested in Aung San Suu Kyi and the majority of the ethnic nationalities, armed and unarmed, to make a change by building a genuine federal union.

But how this end game scenario is going to play out is a question, only time would be able to answer.

The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU) — Editor

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