The Irrawaddy Magazine

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Dateline Irrawaddy: ‘Negotiation Is Necessary, But It Should Not Be Excessive’ Posted: 26 Feb 2016 09:24 PM PST This week, The Irrawaddy talks with Sai Nyunt Lwin and Aung Moe Zaw about what negotiations between the NLD and the military mean for Burma's future. Kyaw Zwa Moe : This week, we are going to discuss the progression of negotiations between the National League for Democracy [NLD], led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, and the Tatmadaw [Burma's military]; the role of ethnic groups in the new government; and to what extent ongoing peace talks have been successful. My guest speakers are Sai Nyunt Lwin, general secretary of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy, and Aung Moe Zaw, chairman of the Democratic Party for a New Society. I am Irrawaddy English Editor Kyaw Zwa Moe. KZM: U Sai Nyunt Lwin, firstly, what kind of negotiations should there be between the Tatmadaw and Aung San Suu Kyi, seeing as so far we don't know what she and Tatmadaw Chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing talked about? To what extent does Daw Aung San Suu Kyi agree with him? On the Tatmadaw side, we've been hearing that no one is sure whether the military accepts Article 59(f) or not. What compromises should the election-winning party make? Sai Nyunt Lwin: No information has been released regarding negotiations or compromises. But if we compare the current meeting to the rest of Burma's history, these talks are very significant. If the talks are unsuccessful, that could create a bad image for both the Tatmadaw and the winning party. It would be a hurdle for our country's future. We all have to pray for the success of these negotiations. We can't intervene, as we do not know what they are negotiating. KZM: Out of their dialogue, a key rumor has alleged that the Tatmadaw wanted the positions of chief minister for [some] states and regions. On the one hand, [we are unsure] whether or not this has been agreed to, particularly for Shan, Arakan and even Kachin states. For Shan state, how much has the NLD taken this into consideration? SNL: We, the political party based in Shan State, are concerned because the USDP is the majority in the Shan State parliament. If the Shan State chief minister post is given to the USDP, it is likely that the USDP will have a leading role in Shan State politics. But for the sake of the country, we would have to live with that, face whatever comes up. KZM: Ko Aung Moe Zaw, what do you know, from any inside sources, about the results of the negotiation between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, since they've met three times already? Reportedly, there have been some positive outcomes. Aung Moe Zaw: First, I would like to say it is not good for our country that the winning party has to negotiate with the Tatmadaw to form the government. To form the government is the responsibility of the government, the responsibility of the leaders of the winning party. KZM: But the Tatmadaw's role here is crucial. AMZ: I want the Tatmadaw to think about it. That is one thing. But they already have control of three ministerial posts [in the cabinet], enshrined by the Constitution. And now we've heard that they are asking for more. But we can't confirm whether or not this is accurate. As Ko Kyaw Zwa Moe said, we've also heard that they've asked for the state/regional chief minister posts in Shan, Kachin and Arakan states, as well as in the Rangoon region. In short, it is the National League for Democracy's duty to form the government that we want. Negotiation is necessary, but it should not be excessive, because it would create problems for both the country and future political conditions. KZM: Given the current situation, there are many uncertainties within the government. But regarding the recent appointments of Parliament speakers and deputy speakers, the NLD and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi really wanted to create inclusiveness, I think. U Aye Tha Aung, a Rakhine leader, has become a deputy speaker, and a Karen a speaker and a Kachin a deputy speaker. So ethnic nationalities make up three-fourths of the positions. It is likely that the NLD will also appoint cabinet members in a similar way. What percentage of government leadership roles, especially key positions, should be given to members of ethnic groups? SNL: There might be a proposal from some ethnic groups because some individuals have expectations for this to happen. But I think many people were satisfied and optimistic about what [the NLD] had done [with the appointments] in the Parliament. People expect that the governing bodies will be formed in that way. I think they will be appointed to some extent. However, I think that the competent people should be given priority. The main challenge is corruption. They [the NLD] already struggle with many things in this country. Also, I don't want someone to get a post as an honorable title. I think those who have the capacity and skills should be given priority. And the more ethnics there are, the better it will be. KZM: Peace is also one of the NLD's top priorities. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has said that she would lead the peace process. For these positions, I think, ethnic groups and their leaders, who are more familiar with the peace process, will be more suitable. SNL: We must include ethnic leaders because the NLD kept itself away from the peace process over the past three or four years. They did not intervene much, but they can't avoid this now. As far as we know, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will lead. But it won't be only her. She will think of and include ethnic leaders who are dedicated to the peace process. KZM: What about the current peace process? The current minister U Aung Min and his people from the Myanmar Peace Centre have held meetings with representatives from the UNFC in Chiang Mai, Thailand. It looks like they were trying hard to get the non NCA-signatories to sign. How would you evaluate this situation? Seeing as how this is a transition period, do the ethnic [armed] groups need to sign immediately? Or should they collaborate under the next government's leadership? Which one would be better for the sake of ethnic groups? SNL: I think there would be no development if they were to sign with the current government, because the current administration only has days left. Again, negotiations between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the Tatmadaw are really important. We have to put special focus on this. The non-signatory groups should also focus on this, because the announcement of who will be nominated for president will come just weeks from now, on March 17. We've been striving for this power transfer for 50, 60 years. This transfer has already happened in the Parliament, and it will happen for the executive sector, which is more important, on March 31. The NLD will have to form 15 governing bodies, including the 14 state and the union governments. Thus, as this is such a large burden, non-signatory groups should consider signing under the next government. KZM: Ko Aung Moe Zaw, you had relationships with many ethnic groups when you were in exile. So how would you assess Aung Min's peace team? How fast do they want the process to go? What would be the benefits? AMZ: I think they will try to get credit before the end of the term. But all of the government's projects are being closed. I think the peace process should continue under the next government. As U Sai [Sai Nyunt Lwin] said, however, there is not much time left. Therefore, I reckon the non NCA-signatories will wait for the next government. One more thing I want to add is if the NLD is considering having ethnic leaders in its cabinet, it should prioritize its long-time allies, individuals who can be trusted from democratic political parties, and select them. KZM: I think this will happen, as we've already seen it happen with Parliament speakers. But one thing, U Sai Nyunt Lwin, is, what if the NLD asked you to take an important position, either in the peace process or in a ministerial post, as you already have a lot of experience as secretary of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy? Are you ready to collaborate? SNL: Ko Kyaw Zwa Moe, we have been doing our duty for 27 years, since 1988. If I were given an opportunity to fulfill my duty, I would have to serve. KZM: I want to ask one more question. The current negotiations between Aung San Suu Kyi and Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing are crucial for the next five years. They may even be a foundation for what's to come. If the two parties do not agree, we would have a problem. If they do, there might be great times ahead. So, what I want to know is, what will be the most crucial job, or jobs, for the new government in regards to peace? AMZ: When we talk about peace, we only talk about ceasefires between warring groups. The deterioration of the rule of law is very much related to peace. It's key to implementing peace. So a ceasefire to end civil war is the main task, in a sense, but it is far more important to work on a way to sustain the rule of law and to reduce corruption. KZM: Finally, an important question for both Ko Aung Moe Zaw and U Sai Nyunt Lwin, but your answers must be short. The Tatmadaw will remain in an important role under the incoming government, led by the NLD. Under these circumstances, do you think it is possible to become a genuine federal union and to achieve equality for ethnic groups? How difficult would that be? SNL: It can't happen yet, I don't think. When the Tatmadaw returns to its place as a professional entity and rule of law prevails and peace talks have succeeded, then we can hope for the type of federal union that we envision. I do not expect much now as we are still not able to solve our current problems. KZM: Does that mean it will have to wait until a new term [administration]? SNL: I think so. AMZ: Unless the Constitution is changed, we can't achieve democracy. It would be difficult to achieve peace and federalism. Amending the Constitution is crucial. KZM: U Sai Nyunt Lwin, Ko Aung Moe Zaw, thank you so much for your contributions. The post Dateline Irrawaddy: 'Negotiation Is Necessary, But It Should Not Be Excessive' appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

The Irrawaddy Business Roundup (Feb. 27, 2016) Posted: 26 Feb 2016 07:30 PM PST Planes taxi on the tarmac at Rangoon International Airport. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy) Signs of Trouble for Local Airlines as MAI Suspends Taiwan Flight After operating a Rangoon-Taiwan direct flight for less than a month, Myanmar Airways International (MAI) has withdrawn the route, according to a Taiwanese media report. Focus Taiwan news channel cited the country's Civil Aeronautics Administration saying that the airline had applied to cancel its remaining flights due to low passenger numbers. The flight was launched as part of broader efforts to promote tourism in Burma, and was supposed to run until March 25. "The airline is offering refunds to passengers affected by the cancellations or making flight arrangements for them on other airlines," the report said. It's the latest sign that Burmese airlines' ambitious efforts to expand overseas could face difficulties. It could act as a warning to the state-run Myanmar National Airlines (MNA), which has recently begun its own international flights. MNA also applied last month to offer flights between Rangoon and Taiwan's Taoyuan airport, Focus Taiwan reported. MAI is a spin off from the state carrier, but is majority owned by Kanbawza Bank, which purchased a stake in the airline and initiated a modernization drive around the time that Burma's transition from military rule began. But the airline has already had to withdraw its flight between Rangoon and Singapore, a route that has proven highly competitive and has not attracted the number of passengers some airlines had hoped. Analysts have warned that Burmese airlines will struggle to compete with larger foreign carriers on international routes, since they are not able to offer onward transcontinental connecting flights. MNA has launched its own flights to Singapore, Hong Kong and Thailand in recent months. The airline is backed by the government, however, and appears willing to take some losses so that the country has a national flag carrier. Warning over Kyaukphyu Security Risks The plan to build an industrial hub on the coast of western Burma's Arakan State could be plagued by security concerns, according to analysts BMI Research. In a note this week, the company warned that inter-communal tensions in the state, environmental concerns and anti-Chinese sentiment would all pose difficulties to the project. A consortium led by Chinese state-owned company CITIC was awarded the tender to build an industrial park and port in Kyaukphyu in December. BMI Research said it ranks Burma 32nd out of 35 Asian countries in terms of the risk of conflict. While Kyaukphyu was not the center of communal conflicts between Arakanese Buddhists and Rohingya and other Muslim communities in recent years, the town's main Muslim fishing community was razed in 2012 and hundreds of people continue to be confined to a displacement camp just outside of town. "This ethno-religious conflict has the potential to erupt again in the future, and could disrupt theconstruction process in relation to security risks for personnel and workers, as well as damage to property," BMI Research said. Perhaps more likely, however, is the risk of local pushback against the Chinese developers disrupting the project. CITIC Construction's vice chairman Yuan Shaobin told Chinese state media in January that the project would be carried out with the concepts of "social development, green development and common prosperity" in mind. However, locals say that their previous experience with Chinese companies—who have also built duel oil and gas pipelines running from Kyaukphyu to China—has not been wholly positive. Many believe that Chinese companies are less likely to mitigate the environmental impacts of their projects. "[P]ast Chinese investment projects have shown that Chinese companies prefer to bring their own workers and their projects may not bring significant benefits for local communities," the note said. "This therefore has the potential to create resentment and spur protests or anti-Chinese riots which may damage property within the SEZ and contribute to a climate of insecurity in the region which will deter foreign investors." Emirates Set to Launch Dubai-Rangoon Flight United Arab Emirates-based airline Emirates will begin flying between Dubai and Rangoon from August this year, according to a statement Thursday. The company announced that from Aug. 3, it would run a daily service using a Boeing 777-300ER aircraft from Dubai to Rangoon, which would then fly on to Hanoi. "[T]his new route will strengthen Emirates' network of destinations in Southeast Asia, offer a new flight option to passengers travelling between Hanoi and Yangon, and open up new connections for [Burmese] and Vietnamese travellers to access Emirates' global network," the statement said. The flight will mainly cater to travelers flying from Burma and Vietnam to Europe, who can transfer in Dubai. It will also carry up to 20 tonnes of cargo, the statement said. "Popular exports on this route are expected to be manufactured garments and seafood from Myanmar, and marine products and electronics from Hanoi," it said. British Government to Provide Cover for Firms Exporting to Burma UK Export Finance, the British government's export credit agency, will provide $300 million of insurance and guarantees to help UK firms export to Burma. It is hoped that the cover, which was announced during a visit to Rangoon by British Transport Minister Lord Tariq Ahmad, will help UK exporters to compete with others looking to exploit growing markets in Burma for products like consumer goods and construction materials. UK Export Finance can provide insurance to exporters and guarantees to banks financing exports from the UK. It also makes loans to overseas companies to buy goods from the UK. Ahmad was in Burma last week for a visit that included talks with Rangoon Mayor Hla Myint about the city's development, according to a statement. "He met the local and international business community, and development partners engaged in infrastructure development," it said, adding that the British official also spoke at an event promoting UK company Rolls Royce Plc and at a seminar involving Burma's chamber of commerce. "During the seminar, Lord Ahmad set out the UK's expertise in the transport infrastructure sector and some of the steps the UK government has made in terms of prioritization and long-term planning." UK 'Fair Trade' Charity to Carry Burmese Rice British organization Traidcraft, which aims to fight poverty through trade, is working to begin exporting Burmese rice that will be sold under the label "fair trade." Fair trade labeling seeks to reassure consumers that poor farmers are being properly compensated for their labor on the goods imported in the West. The products, which have to meet certain standards, have proven popular, but the scheme's efficacy in relieving poverty has been questioned. According to a blogpost on its website last month, Traidcraft said it was working to bring fair trade to two rural communities in Burma. "Working on the ground, we are helping farmers in these two communities to work as groups, sharing knowledge to realise the best market prices for their paddy," the blog said. "In one of the villages, we are assisting with the modernisation of a rice mill that dates back to the colonial days. We're building a storage facility which will allow them to hold back some of their crop to realise more money when market prices are high." Traidcraft said that, in order to be exported, the rice will have to conform to Fairtrade standards that ensure the use of proper fertilizers, the absence of child labor and equal pay for men and women laborers. The post The Irrawaddy Business Roundup (Feb. 27, 2016) appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

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