The Irrawaddy Magazine

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• Lawmakers Propose Further Easing of Protest Law
• Fleeing From the Sex Trade
• Stock Exchange Sophomore IPO Hits Ceiling
• Haven for Mangroves, Crocodiles on Irrawaddy Delta Island
• Court Accepts Defamation Suit Against Nationalist Provocateur
• ‘21st Century Panglong Conference’ Set for Late July
• Atomic Bomb Survivors: Obama Apology Nice, But Priority Is Disarmament
• US Could Lift Arms Embargo on Vietnam Amid China Tensions
• A Fragmented Ethnic Bloc Impedes Suu Kyi’s ‘Panglong’ Vision

Lawmakers Propose Further Easing of Protest Law Posted: 20 May 2016 07:49 AM PDT Police wait for demonstrators in Rangoon on March 10, 2015. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — Burma's Upper House of Parliament has decided to review a bill to replace the controversial Peaceful Assembly and Procession Law, so as to align it more closely with international human rights standards, after criticism from rights groups that it retained several provisions used to stifle dissent in recent years. First enacted in 2012 under the previous military-backed government, the law—which ostensibly bestowed new rights of protest and assembly—was repeatedly used to arrest and imprison activists who flouted its harsh provisions. This included the need to seek "permission" from local authorities five days in advance of the protest and to supply detailed information on the content and intended route of the activities. Earlier this month, the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) recommended in the Upper House of Parliament that significant changes be made to the Peaceful Assembly law. Demonstrators would only need to "notify" local authorities 48 hours in advance, a new statute of limitations of 15 days would be introduced, and protestors would not be vulnerable to prosecution from multiple township authorities. However, the proposal to merely reduce, rather than abolish, prison sentences for violating sections of the law—and to continue to require detailed information on proposed protests be provided to local authorities—has drawn criticism from both local and international human rights groups. It also led to accusations that the amendment of the law was being rushed by the NLD. Four lawmakers brought debate of the replacement bill to Thursday's legislative session. In particular, they recommended that the requirement for protest leaders to supply the content of slogans to local police along with the names of speakers should be "deleted or amended." One lawmaker suggested further reducing the statute of limitations for filing lawsuits against protestors to seven days, but another recommended increasing the original proposal to 30 days. Members of the Upper House Bill Committee on Friday discussed the new bill with representatives from the Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma), or AAPP. Bo Kyi, joint secretary of the AAPP, described the changes in the bill as insufficient in addressing challenges faced by activists in Burma, since peaceful protests could still entail jail terms, and impromptu demonstrations were not accounted for. "[The law] has yet to [secure rights of] peaceful assembly and protest for anyone living legally in the country," Bo Gyi told The Irrawaddy. "If Burma wants to address its ugly record of human rights violations, it has to amend the law in accordance with international standards," he said. Zaw Min, who chairs the Upper House Bill Committee, told The Irrawaddy on Friday that the committee would look into amending the bill. "The recommendations we received from different human rights associations and legal experts are quite similar," Zaw Min said. "We will consider including their recommendations and redrafting the bill before submitting it to Parliament." Amnesty International's South East Asia and Pacific Director Rafendi Djamin sent an open letter to Burma's Parliament the previous week, urging a review of the bill through a transparent consultation with relevant stakeholders. "Failure to do so not only risks more arrests, detention, prosecution and imprisonment of peaceful protesters, it also could undermine wider efforts to reform the country's legal framework in general," the letter stated. The post Lawmakers Propose Further Easing of Protest Law appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Fleeing From the Sex Trade Posted: 20 May 2016 06:05 AM PDT A sign on the bridge linking China with Burma warns people in the Chinese and Burmese languages not to cross over, at the Wanding border close to Ruili, Yunnan province, in this January 12, 2009 file photo. (Photo: Ben Blanchard / Reuters) RANGOON — Two weeks ago, three Arakanese women from Kyaukphyu Township in northern Arakan met in an unlikely place: Shweli, a Chinese town also known as Ruili, on the border with Burma. The trio had been convinced to cross into China, lured by the promise of lucrative factory jobs in the border boomtown. They travelled by bus to Muse Township in Burma, and after crossing the border on a seven-day visa, they were ushered by smugglers to the Shwi Cott guest house where they stayed for a few days. One day, Hnin Sandar Phyo, one of the Arakanese women, eavesdropped on the smugglers' conversation. "I was horrified," said Hnin Sandar Phyo, a native of Taung Yin village, Kyaukphyu. She heard them talking about a "virgin market" where the smugglers could earn four million kyats (US$3,415) and the youngest girl, Thuzar Khin, 17, was likely to bring in five million kyats. The smugglers said that the girls would be able to support their families with the money they earned from "marrying" the Chinese clients. "I never expected this, because I trusted her," she said. "I didn't know what to do and just cried the whole night," said Thuzar Khin. "I missed my boyfriend. I didn't tell him about my journey because I was coming to work [in China], not to marry a stranger." Hnin Sandar Phyo, 20, was also distraught. "I immediately broke out in a cold sweat," she said. The three Arakanese girls decided to flee. In an unknown environment, surrounded by a foreign language, the only thing they knew to do was run. "We left the guest house around 10 pm," said Thuzar Khin. "We felt helpless because we couldn't speak Chinese. Even asking for help was hard." Fortunately, they met with a Burmese man who runs a betel nut shop near the Shwi Cott guest house. He brought them to his house to hide for the night. But they knew the traffickers were after them, and the following morning he took them to the Ruili-Muse border crossing and gave them money for bus tickets to Mandalay. When they arrived in Mandalay, they were penniless. They begged a bus operator to let them go to Sittwe for free, and the kind-hearted man acquiesced. The three girls reached Sittwe on May 15, and the bus driver called the human trafficking prevention department of the Sittwe Police. Police Col. Kyaw Nyunt met with the girls and launched an investigation into their case. According to Kyaw Nyunt, the smugglers were Kyaukphyu residents who live in different neighborhoods. They approached the girls because they have relatives working in China, and they promised them a salary of US$150 per month to work in a Chinese factory. The girls were all from poor villages, and the prospects of a good job were very appealing. After the police recorded the girls' statements, they took them back to Kyaukphyu on a high-speed boat. On May 18, local police apprehended four women—San San, Myint Myint Than, Hla Shwe and Ma Nay—and charged them with human trafficking. Thuzar Win said the traffickers should be jailed for "forty years," adding, "[The traffickers] also have children, so they should have had empathy." But even bringing the traffickers to justice is unlikely to help Thuzar Win overcome the trauma of the experience. She met her boyfriend at home on Thursday, but it was not the happy reunion she had expected. "I wanted to tell him everything, but I couldn't say anything." The post Fleeing From the Sex Trade appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Stock Exchange Sophomore IPO Hits Ceiling Posted: 20 May 2016 05:23 AM PDT Burmese and Japanese officials cut ribbons during the opening ceremony of the Thilawa Special Economic Zone at Thanlyin Township outside Rangoon on September 23, 2015. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters) For the second time in as many months, the Yangon Stock Exchange (YSX) has hosted an initial public offering (IPO). Myanmar Thilawa Special Economic Zone Holdings on Friday followed First Myanmar Investment to become the second firm listed on the YSX; hungry for the new opportunity, investors drove the stock up 25 percent on its first day of trading. Thilawa SEZ's float price of 40,000 kyats (US$34.16) quickly soared to 50,000 kyats, where it hit the daily price ceiling and trading was suspended. Myanmar Thilawa SEZ is a holding group that holds a major stake in the Thilawa Special Economic Zone 20 miles south of Rangoon that is home to factories, a deep sea port and housing complexes. "Myanmar Thilawa SEZ Holdings is a very attractive company for investors," said Thet Tun Oo, senior manager at YSX. "Businesses have already started operating there, unlike at other development zones, and I believe Thilawa will develop very quickly." While the opening day may seem like a good sign for Thilawa SEZ's stock price, its predecessor on the bourse has already had a rough ride. FMI, YSX's maiden listing, fell below its IPO price a few days after the initial wave of exuberance subsided and has remained 5,000 to 10,000 kyats below its peak ever since. Thilawa SEZ offered over 3.8 million shares on Friday, which had been previously sold to investors through over-the-counter trading. The post Stock Exchange Sophomore IPO Hits Ceiling appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Haven for Mangroves, Crocodiles on Irrawaddy Delta Island Posted: 20 May 2016 05:13 AM PDT MEIN-MA-HLA ISLAND, Irrawaddy Division — Perched on the outermost tip of Bogale Township in Burma's Irrawaddy Division, where the Irrawaddy Delta's rivers meet the Andaman Sea, Mein-Ma-Hla Island is the biggest mangrove forest reserve in the country—and currently home to more than 200 endangered saltwater crocodiles. Designated a wildlife sanctuary in 1994, the 52.78-square-mile island was also declared an Asean Heritage Park in 2003 due to its diverse flora and fauna. This includes 14 land animal, 148 bird and 72 aquatic species, alongside 53 herbal and seven orchid species. Life around the island remains largely untouched by the changes that have gripped many other parts of Burma in recent years. Boats are the only means of transportation and most locals depend on fishing for their livelihood. Saltwater crocodiles can be spotted around the island during the months of May, June and July—their mating season. Wandering through the fishing villages, the crocodiles have been known to seize cattle—and sometimes humans, so people say. The post Haven for Mangroves, Crocodiles on Irrawaddy Delta Island appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Court Accepts Defamation Suit Against Nationalist Provocateur Posted: 20 May 2016 03:22 AM PDT Nay Myo Wai is brought to court to face defamation charges on Thursday. (Photo: Salai Thant Zin / The Irrawaddy) PATHEIN, Irrawaddy Division — A court in Irrawaddy Division's Kangyidaunt Township on Thursday accepted a lawsuit filed against ultra-nationalist politician Nay Myo Wai for allegedly defaming the president, army chief and state counselor on social media. Wai Yan Aung, an executive member of the Burma Teachers' Federation, filed the lawsuit against the politician two weeks ago under Article 66(d) of the Telecommunications Law and accused him of defaming President Htin Kyaw, Commander-in-Chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi. Article 66(d) carries a punishment of up to three years' imprisonment for using a telecommunications network to defame. Nay Myo Wai is a supporter of the Buddhist nationalist group Ma Ba Tha and serves as chairman of the Peace and Diversity Party. In recent years he has earned a reputation as a frequent propagator of anti-Muslim sentiment online. Nay Myo Wai was arrested on May 4 and remained in custody in Pathein Prison while police sought approval from the transportation and communications minister to charge him under the Telecommunications Law. The minister approved and the case was submitted to the court on Thursday. The defendant's sister Sandar Oo will act as his lawyer, and Myint Thein will represent the plaintiff Wai Yan Aung. As Nay Myo Wai was brought to court on Thursday, dozens of relatives and supporters showed up and shouted blessings to him. The trial is scheduled for May 23. Several cases under the Telecommunications Law rose to prominence during the former government's rule. Kachin aid worker Patrick Khum Jaa Lee and Chaw Sandi Tun each received six-month sentences for Facebook posts that courts deemed defamatory to the military, and a local Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) official received a six-month sentence for sharing fake, altered images of the head of Suu Kyi transposed onto the body of a naked woman. The post Court Accepts Defamation Suit Against Nationalist Provocateur appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

‘21st Century Panglong Conference’ Set for Late July Posted: 20 May 2016 02:40 AM PDT Aung San Suu Kyi visits the office of the former Myanmar Peace Center on May 14. (Photo: Myo Min Soe / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — The National League for Democracy's push for peace with ethnic armed groups is expected to begin in late July, according to sources familiar with the matter. At the office complex of the former Myanmar Peace Center in Rangoon on Thursday, the government committee making preparations for the so-called "21st Century Panglong Conference" met with the eight non-state signatories of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), a peace pact signed with Burma's previous government in 2015. "The committee explained that they would like to hold the conference by the end of July," Khun Myint Tun, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization, told The Irrawaddy. The preparation committee, however, did not provide details about the conference, Khun Myint Tun added. The framework for the conference is expected to build upon the political dialogue established by the previous government, according to NCA signatories. But, the committee will also invite 13 NCA non-signatories to work together on creating an agenda for the conference, the signatories said. When asked if the NCA non-signatories would be allowed to participate in the conference, Khun Myint Tun said: "They can participate from the very beginning. They will be allowed to take part in the decision-making of developing the framework [for the conference]." At a meeting in April with the Joint Monitoring Committee, a ceasefire watchdog that includes the eight NCA signatories, Aung San Suu Kyi, Burma's state counselor, first proposed holding a "Panglong-style" conference. The original Panglong Conference was convened in southern Shan State in 1947 by Suu Kyi's father, Gen. Aung San, and leaders from some of the country's ethnic minorities, in preparation for independence from Britain. It led to the signing of an agreement by the same name, which has been widely praised for the spirit of inclusiveness and cooperation that it fostered between the dominant Burman majority and ethnic minorities at the time. Suu Kyi is set to meet with the Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) on May 27 and inviting NCA non-signatories to participate in framework drafting will be on the agenda, said Khun Myint Tun. The UPDJC was charged with drafting the framework for political dialogue under the previous government, and is a tripartite body consisting of government-military representatives, as well as those from NCA signatories and political parties. The chairman of the conference preparatory committee, Dr. Tin Myo Win, said his committee in the meantime would encourage NCA non-signatories to sign the NCA or to take part in the development of a framework for the conference. The committee has formed a sub-committee headed by Tin Myo Win to negotiate with NCA non-signatories, and another sub-committee led by Gen. Yar Pyae of the Burma Army will take care of preparations for the conference. Hla Maung Shwe, a member of the preparation committee, said that Suu Kyi had instructed them to include ethnic armed groups that are still "clashing" with the Burma Army in the conference, and they have taken steps to achieve that goal. "Whether or not [the NCA non-signatories] sign [the NCA] would depend on their discussions with the government later," said Hla Maung Shwe. "What is important now is to figure out how to bring them into the talks." Hla Maung Shwe declined to comment on whether the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army—three ethnic armed groups that are non-signatories and are actively in conflict with the Burma Army—would be invited to the conference. The previous government shut the three groups out of talks leading up to the NCA signing. The Irrawaddy's Moe Myint contributed reporting. The post '21st Century Panglong Conference' Set for Late July appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Atomic Bomb Survivors: Obama Apology Nice, But Priority Is Disarmament Posted: 19 May 2016 10:00 PM PDT Terumi Tanaka, a survivor of the atomic bombing and head of a national organization of bombing survivors called Nihon Hidankyo, at a news conference in Tokyo, Japan, on May 19, 2016.  (Photo: Reuters) TOKYO — Japanese atomic bomb survivors say an apology from President Barack Obama for the US bombing of Hiroshima would be welcome, but their priority is on ridding the world of all nuclear weapons forever. Obama, who in 2009 was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize partly for making nuclear nonproliferation a centerpiece of his agenda, will on May 27 become the first incumbent US president to visit Hiroshima, site of the world's first atomic bombing on Aug. 6, 1945. The city of Nagasaki was bombed three days later. Obama's visit to Hiroshima, after he attends a meeting of G7 leaders in Tokyo, was hotly debated in the White House, with concern it would be criticized in the United States if it was seen as an apology. Most Japanese feel the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were unjustified. Many in the United States say the bombings shortened the war and saved the lives of numerous US servicemen. Terumi Tanaka, a native of Nagasaki who was 13 when the bomb hit, said on Thursday an apology for the human suffering would be welcome. Though he was unharmed, he vividly recalls searching the blackened city and piles of bodies for family members. "We would definitely like an apology to people who lost their lives, those who lost loved ones, parents who lost their children," Tanaka, who heads a national organization of bombing survivors, told a news conference. But insisting on a broad apology risked interfering with the ultimate goal of nuclear disarmament, he said. "The strongest feeling of survivors is that this should not become a barrier to getting rid of nuclear weapons," he said. The bomb dropped on Hiroshima killed thousands of people instantly and about 140,000 by the end of the year. About 27,000 people were killed instantly in Nagasaki and about 70,000 by the end of the year. Japan surrendered six days after the bombing of Nagasaki. Toshiki Fujimori, who was a baby on his mother's back when the two of them were bowled over by the blast wave from the Hiroshima bomb, said he sensed efforts were being made to dampen talk of an apology in advance of Obama's visit. "What I mean is, there has been pressure applied to create a mood in which he can visit," he said. "I won't go into details." Hiroshima governor Hidehiko Yuzaki said Obama's visit was stirring a range of emotions in survivors but they were mostly putting hope for nuclear disarmament first. "Their biggest wish is that they don't want anybody to go through this again," he told Reuters. "In order to carry this out, they'll put the issue of an apology to the side for now." The post Atomic Bomb Survivors: Obama Apology Nice, But Priority Is Disarmament appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

US Could Lift Arms Embargo on Vietnam Amid China Tensions Posted: 19 May 2016 09:45 PM PDT US President Barack Obama, second right, shakes hands with Vietnam's Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong in Washington on July 7, 2015.  (Photo: Reuters) WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama could lift restrictions on arms sales when he makes his first visit to Vietnam next week. That would remove a final vestige of wartime animosity but would not please China, which views growing US defense ties in its backyard with deep suspicion amid rising military tensions in the South China Sea. There's considerable support in Washington for lifting the restrictions, including from the Pentagon, but also pockets of congressional opposition, leaving uncertain whether Obama will announce it when he visits Vietnam, starting Sunday. The administration is pushing for more progress on human rights, a constant drag on the relationship. Significantly, the communist government has committed to allow independent labor unions as a condition of its participation in the US-backed Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, but it still holds about 100 political prisoners and there have been more detentions this year. As part of Obama's effort to help Southeast Asian nations counter Beijing, the United States in 2014 partially lifted an arms embargo in place since the end of the Vietnam War, allowing Vietnam to buy lethal defense equipment for maritime security. Vietnam, which has mostly Russian-origin equipment, has not bought anything, but is still eager for Washington to remove the remaining restrictions. If nothing else, it would show relations are fully normalized and open the way to deeper security cooperation. "Real progress on protecting human rights and fundamental freedoms including through legal reform is crucial to ensuring that Vietnam and our relationship achieves its full potential," Daniel Kritenbrink, the White House senior director for Asian affairs, told reporters Wednesday. He refused to comment directly on whether the remaining arms sale restrictions would be lifted—also sensitive because of criticism of Vietnam's rights record among congressional opponents of TPP. The risk of confrontation with Beijing is already growing as the United States challenges China's island-building and assertive behavior in the South China Sea, where five other Asian governments, including Vietnam, have territorial claims. The Pentagon said that two Chinese fighter jets flew Tuesday within about 50 feet of a US Navy reconnaissance plane, forcing the pilot to descend sharply to avoid a collision. China on Thursday denied its behavior was unsafe, and demanded the United States stop spying. China would view the lifting of the restrictions as an attempt to woo Vietnam closer to the United States and away from China. "It will undoubtedly be seen as aimed at weakening China's position and influence in the region," said Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS. But Beijing will be guarded in its reaction because Vietnam is a fraternal communist neighbor. Asked about the prospect of the United States lifting arms restrictions, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said Thursday that China "hopes the countries concerned will play a constructive role in ensuring their cooperation be conducive to the regional stability and safety." Hanoi and Beijing have an ambivalent relationship. Despite the ties between their ruling parties, they fought a border war in 1979 in which thousands died, and clashes in 1988 over their conflicting claims in the South China Sea claimed dozens of lives. Those tensions reared again in 2014, when China parked an oil rig off Vietnam's central coast, sparking confrontations at sea and deadly anti-China riots in Vietnam. "The Vietnamese have got a very tough strategic equation to solve," said Marvin Ott, a former National War College lecturer who led the first, cautious military-to-military contacts between the United States and Vietnam in the mid-1990s. One aspect is how far Vietnam can go in deepening relations with the United States without provoking China. The other is placating US demands for progress on democracy and human rights without threatening the ruling party's grip on power, he said. Obama will be the third consecutive US president to visit Vietnam since diplomatic relations resumed in 1995. In 2013, the two sides declared a comprehensive partnership, and last July, the chief of Vietnam's Communist Party visited the White House, showing that resistance among party hardliners to deeper ties with Washington was receding. But anxiety about China and memories of the Vietnam War still limit military cooperation, said Murray Hiebert, a CSIS expert on Southeast Asia. Despite Vietnam's desire for the United States to lift restrictions and its interest in modernizing its defense equipment, buying from Russia is cheaper and easier. According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Vietnam has been the world's eighth largest importer of weapons over the past five years. Ott said that among South China Sea coastal nations, Vietnam is potentially the most significant military partner for the United States. Among the others, Indonesia says it has no territorial dispute with China although they have overlapping maritime claims; the military of the Philippines, a US ally, is weak; and Malaysia and Brunei are unwilling to confront China. "If you're sitting in the Pentagon, there's only one country that actually could be a military partner and a factor in the South China Sea, and that's Vietnam," Ott said. The post US Could Lift Arms Embargo on Vietnam Amid China Tensions appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

A Fragmented Ethnic Bloc Impedes Suu Kyi’s ‘Panglong’ Vision Posted: 19 May 2016 06:27 PM PDT Ethnic armed groups meeting in Panghsang, the capital of the Wa Special Region, in November 2015. (Photo: Lawi Weng / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — While State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi beats the drum for a "21st Century Panglong Conference" to resolve decades-long ethnic conflict in Burma's border regions, the division between the minority of ethnic armed groups who signed last year's Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) and the majority who did not appears to grow sharper by the day. The two blocs are already developing contrasting approaches to the peace process, and articulating different ideas, including over the centrality of the Burma Army versus the National League for Democracy (NLD) government in negotiating peace. The division has been exacerbated in recent months by hostilities in northern Shan State: between the Shan State Army-South (SSA-S), the armed wing of the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) which signed the NCA, and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the armed wing of the Palaung State Liberation Front (PSLF) which was excluded from participating in the NCA by the previous government. The TNLA has repeatedly accused the SSA-S of receiving assistance from the Burma Army in its campaign. Recent comments from armed group leaders, who asked to remain anonymous, suggest that a group from among the non-NCA signatory ethnic armed groups could break away to form a powerful "third" bloc, based in northern Burma along the Chinese border and led by the United Wa State Army (UWSA)—the largest of Burma's ethnic armed groups and reportedly close to elements of the Chinese government. Soon after Suu Kyi proposed the "21st Century Panglong Conference" (a reference to the Panglong Agreement of 1947 reached between Suu Kyi's father Aung San and ethnic minority leaders to form a federal union guaranteeing ethnic communities equal rights), two NCA signatories, the RCSS and the Karen National Union (KNU), held a private meeting in Chiang Mai, northern Thailand, to discuss proposals for federalism that they would present at such a conference. Ethnic armed group sources have said that the two ethnic blocs on either side of the NCA are likely to deliver differing messages to the National Reconciliation and Peace Center (NRPC). The NRPC is the secretariat recently formed by Suu Kyi to facilitate negotiations with ethnic armed groups—a replacement for the Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) under the previous government. Both ethnic blocs have formed their own delegations for peace negotiations and political dialogue with the government: the Ethnic Armed Organizations Peace Process Steering Team (EAO-PPST) in the case of NCA signatory groups, and the Delegation for Political Negotiation (DPN) in the case of non signatory groups. Sources familiar with the issue told The Irrawaddy that NCA signatories prefer dealing with the Burma Army to Suu Kyi’s NRPC, while the NCA non-signatories have expressed greater willingness to deal with Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) government. KNU leaders met privately with Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, commander-in-chief of the Burma Army, and former President Thein Sein on May 14 in Naypyidaw to discuss the peace process. Mahn Nyein Maung, a senior figure in the KNU, told Radio Free Asia (RFA) that although Suu Kyi has proposed holding a 21st Century Panglong Conference within two months, political dialogue should only begin once NCA non-signatories sign the NCA. "It will not be a meaningful conference if there are still ethnic armed groups who haven’t signed the NCA," Mahn Nyein Maung said. "They [NCA non-signatories] should sign the NCA before proceeding to political dialogue. The process should be based on the NCA established by the previous government," Mahn Nyein Maung said. Mahn Nyein Maung added that the purpose of the KNU's visit to Naypyidaw was to strengthen their relationship with the Burma Army chief. While the Burma Army has exercised a "carrot" policy with the KNU and the RCSS, offering benefits and cooperation, it has stepped up hostilities against NCA non-signatories in Kachin and Shan states in the north and east of Burma. NCA non-signatories including the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP), Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Arakan Army (AA) have seen active conflict with the Burma Army since the NCA signing ceremony in October last year. These hostilities have served to undermine the unity of even the NCA non-signatories. The TNLA and the MNDAA have recently moved to resign their membership of the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), an alliance of nine non-NCA signatory armed groups. The TNLA and the MNDAA reportedly wish to ally with the powerful UWSA, in order to focus on "military defense"—reflecting their more embattled position vis-à-vis the Burma Army, compared to some other UNFC groups. According to a senior member of an NCA signatory group, speaking on condition of anonymity, ethnic armed groups along the Burma-China border in northern Shan State may merge to form a new alliance. He hinted it would comprise of NCA non-signatories. The TNLA, the MNDAA and the UWSA are the most likely candidates for this "northern" third bloc of ethnic armed groups, with the latter assuming a leadership position on account of its superior size and strength. The Arakan Army—an ethnic Arakanese armed group founded in Kachin State but which has recently been fighting the Burma Army in Arakan State—has reportedly fostered ties with the UWSA over the past two years, and is another likely member of this new alliance, along with the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) based in eastern Shan State and popularly known as the "Mong La Group," which has historically been close to the UWSA. Additionally, the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP), whose armed wing is the Shan State Army-North, has enjoyed political, military and business partnerships with the UWSA. Their participation cannot be ruled out in this new, potentially destabilizing "northern" alliance, which would significantly weaken the UNFC. TNLA spokesperson Tar Bong Kyaw was quoted by RFA as saying that they had submitted their resignation to the UNFC alongside the MNDAA because of their "political standpoint" and the current "military situation." "It is mainly because military tensions are so high in our region. Clashes have been going on for some time. But we received only weak assistance from the UNFC," Tar Bong Kyaw was quoted as saying. In March, the UWSA hosted a conference of ethnic armed groups at its headquarters of Panghsang at the Chinese border, during which it proposed that it take a leadership role on behalf of NCA non-signatories in peace talks with the new government. However, the KIO—the second largest ethnic armed group in Burma, which currently leads the UNFC—rejected the proposal at the conference. The Burma Army meanwhile has shown no signs of softening its stance on the TNLA and the Arakan Army, both of which backed the MNDAA in fierce clashes with the Burma Army in the Kokang Self-Administered Zone in Shan State early last year. The Burma Army still will not countenance the formal involvement of these three armed groups in the peace process, which may have alienated them from other UNFC members eager to reach a peace deal with the new NLD government. Although Suu Kyi will likely remain determined in her project to emulate the achievements of her father with Burma's ethnic minority groups, there are very substantial obstacles to achieving a "21st Century Panglong Conference" in the current environment of distrust, disunity and polarization. With the existing bonds of unity among ethnic armed groups growing increasingly fragile, highly differing—and possibly irreconcilable—demands are likely to be addressed to Suu Kyi. For instance, multiple ethnic minorities in diverse Shan State, such as the Pa-O or the Palaung (Ta'ang), may demand their own federal states—or at least substantial autonomy—for fear that the ethnic Shan majority may dominate a federal Shan State. The ethnic Shan may view this as a splintering of their territory. Furthermore, the looming possibility of a new "northern" alliance led by the UWSA, as a substantial third bloc of ethnic armed groups in Burma, could de-stabilize the situation further. The post A Fragmented Ethnic Bloc Impedes Suu Kyi's 'Panglong' Vision appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

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