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| BURMA'S PEACE PROCESS AT CROSSROAD: The Northern Alliance Connection Posted: 06 Aug 2016 06:06 AM PDT  During the last few weeks quite a lot of activities have been seen trying to address the upcoming 21st Century Panglong Agreement (21CPC), also known as Union Peace Conference (UPC), initiated by the State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. They are the Ethnic Armed Organizations' (EAOs) Mai Ja Yang meeting, youth meeting of all ethnicity in Panglong town of Shan State, and the so-called Northern Alliance or United Wa State Army (UWSA) and Mong La or National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) meeting with the government, just to name the three outstanding gatherings. While the first two meetings were well covered, due to the high profile and public interest, the Northern Alliance embracing the government's overtures were vaguely covered and thus needs a more in-depth study to be able to have a more informed understanding, on the importance of this happening. It is all the more becoming increasingly interesting, as Khin Zaw Oo, secretary of the Peace Commission, quite recently said that the most controversial all-inclusiveness issue, involving the so far excluded 3 EAOs would be allowed to participate in the peace process, which has been a stumbling block for the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) to sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), last year in October. But let us look at a bit more on this so-called Northern Alliance that is being considered as Chinese proxy and the military's main targeted enemy; and why this change of heart in the course of finding a solution to the country's ethnic conflict. · Two categories of EAOs Before we talk about the so-called Northern Alliance, we might need to go a bit into how this formation has started and come about. Generally speaking, according to the contemporary political landscape, the EAOs could be divided into signatory and non-signatory EAOs. The signatories are All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF), Arakan Liberation Party/Arakan Liberation Army (ALP/ALA), Chin National Front (CNF), Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), Karen National Liberation Army-Peace Council (KNLA-PC), Karen National Union (KNU), Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO)and Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army-South (RCSS/SSA-S). But the non-signatory EAOs could again be divided into 9 UNFC members and the so-called Northern Alliance, involving the UWSA, Kokang or Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Mong La or NDAA. It is not clear if the Palaung State Liberation Front/Ta'ang National Liberation Army (PSLF/TNLA) and United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) are officially part of the Northern Alliance, even though it is evident that the MNDAA and the said two have formed a three party military alliance, actively combating the government forces, starting with the outbreak of the Kokang conflict last year. It is also to be noted that the ULA/AA is not part of the UNFC, whereas the MNDAA and PSLF/TNLA are members. During the Mai Ja Yang meeting from 26 to 30 July, the Arakan groups were represented with three parties, namely: ULA/AA, Arakan National Council/Arakan Army (ANC/AA) and ALP/ALA. Only the ANC/AA is a member of UNFC. The UNFC has 9 members which originally was said to be 10. They are: 1. Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) 2. New Mon State Party (NMSP) 3. Shan State Army-North (SSPP /SSA) 4. Karen National Union (KNU) 5. Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) 6. Chin National Front (CNF) 5 new members: 1. Lahu Democratic Union (LDU) 2. Arakan National Council (ANC) 3. Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO) 4. Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) also known as Palaung State Liberation Front (PSLF) 5. Wa National Organization (WNO) The KNU has suspended its membership in the UNFC, without actually resigning, prior to the signing of NCA about a year ago, while the CNF and PNLO were dismissed by the UNFC, due to the fact that they had not follow the majority decision not to sign the NCA, for lack of all-inclusiveness. But on the eve of the signatory and non-signatory EAOs reconciliation effort to act as one party in the political bargaining process, the UNFC spokesman's official count of nine members remains unclear. Apart from the UNFC, another armed group outside all the other folds is National Socialist Council of Nagaland -Khaplan (NSCN-K), which is struggling to form an independent state by carving territories out from both India and Burma. · The Northern Alliance According to renowned researcher and journalist Bertil Lintner, in one of his his piece he wrote: "On 3 November 1994, their leader, Chao Ngo Lai, summoned a meeting of the UWSA and seven other groups that had also made peace with Rangoon, and an umbrella organization called Peace and Democratic Front (PDF) was formed. It consisted of four former Communist Party Burma (CPB) groups as well as a number of ethnic rebel armies that had made peace with Rangoon after the lucrative deal the ex-communists had struck with the state. (Source: Ethnicity in Asia, By Colin Mackerras; Section 10, Myanmar/Burma, By Bertil Lintner, Edited 2003, Published by RoutledgeCurzon) According to Paul Keenan, in his recent EBO Background Paper titled "The UWSA and the Future", he wrote: "In March 2009, the Myanmar Peace and Democracy Front (MPDF), was reportedly formed. The four-group military alliance comprised the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the MNDAA, NDAA, and the KIO." In his footnote, he said he was unable to confirm the possible participation of the SSPP in the said front. This writer has also tried in vain to clarify the case. However, Tom Kramer, a keen observer and Burma watcher, writer said that the front consists of the UWSA, MNDAA, NDAA, New Democratic Army -Kachin (NDA-K) and SSA North. As mentioned, the inclusion of SSPP/SSA North still could not be confirmed, while the NDA-K in 2009 transformed itself into government's Border Guard Force (BGF). Presently, the Northern Alliance or PDF could be construed as a combination of all ex-communist MNDAA, UWSA and NDAA and perhaps including the TNLA and ULA/AA. From 26-28 March 2016, the United Wa State Party/United Wa State Army (UWSP/UWSA) hosted an Ethnic Armed Organizations Leaders' Summit at its headquarters in Panghsang, Wa Special Region. Present at the meeting were representatives from the Kachin Independence Organisation/Kachin Independence Army (KIO/KIA), SSPP/SSA, PSLF/TNLA, the Kachin based ULA/AA and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA). But whether the above mentioned meeting could be taken as the formation of a Northern Alliance is also not clear, but they did publicized a joint-resolution after the meeting to stop the armed conflict in Kachin and northern Shan States, either through persuasion or if needed be, by force. Whatever the case, it is fair to conclude that the core members of the group includes the UWSA, MNDAA and NDAA. · UWSA, MNDAA meeting with the government On 4 August, Khin Zaw Oo, government peace negotiator from the Peace Commission said the three ethnic armed groups excluded from the peace process will no longer be required to surrender, prior to joining the talks, a softening of the military's tone toward the rebels. He stressed that the military has relaxed that demand after the groups have shown "they really wanted peace", Khin Zaw Oo, a member of the government Peace Commission, according to Reuters in an interview. "Previously, we made the exact demand that they lay down their arms if they wanted to get involved in the peace process - they have found that difficult to accept," said the retired lieutenant general, who is due to meet the armed groups soon. Instead, he added, the army now wants the rebels to issue a statement "showing their political willingness to abandon their weapons". During the UWSA and NDAA visit, in response to the government's overtures between 29 July to 1 August, Suu Kyi explained the peace activities, including the Panglong conference to the two visiting parties and they in turn explained their positions and their work for peace and cooperation, within their special regions. On 30 July and 1 August, UWSA and NDAA met separately with the National Reconciliation Peace Center (NRPC), in Naypyitaw and Yangon (Rangoon) respectively to discuss details on how the two could participate in the peace process. The outcomes were in addition to the two's pledges not to secede from the union and full support of the government's all-inclusiveness position, they promised to find ways to participate in the 21CPC or UPC. Although the NDAA could promise that it would participate in the amendment and fine-tuning of the Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD), due to its Chairman Sai Luen's presence and able to make the decision immediately, the UWSA still needed to inform the central committee members and leaders back at home, as Pao Yu Yi, Deputy-Secretary General of the UWSA has no authority to make decision. "Besides, they also proposed a resource sharing issue and expressed their views that the country's resources should be equitably shared among all ethnic peoples for the development all regions and the taxation be managed systematically," said U Khin Zaw Oo, when meeting the NDAA in Yangon. Reportedly, the two sides also discussed land issues, environmental conservation, human rights and freedom of belief. · Chinese envoy and charm offensive During the Mai Ja Yang EAOs' leadership summit meeting, held from July 26-30, China's Special Envoy on Asian Affairs Sun Guoxiang on the opening day addressed the audience, stating that China backed "all the forces that support internal peace in Burma." Sun Guoxiang also announced the US$3 million donation China had rendered to the Joint Monitoring Committee, a body overseeing the commitments of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement reached between the previous government and 8 EAOs in October last year. In response to the query of a news media on China's stance to the issue of "all-inclusiveness", he left no doubt that it is all for it. "We encourage all the armed ethnic organisations to attend the 21st-century Panglong Conference for the internal peace of Myanmar. We recognise that there are diverse and different perspectives on peace by different parties. We hope that all sides cooperate for the achievement of peace in Myanmar," said Sun Guoxiang, special envoy for Asian Affairs at the foreign affairs ministry in China. Prior to the Mai Ja Yang EAOs' meeting, the VOA analysis of 30 June, on Burma-China relationship, pin-pointed the calculated policy shift of China in a variety of ways that propelled its charm offensive undertakings. · On 4 June, Chinese Ambassador Hong Liang visited Kachin State to lobby for the restarting of stalled Myitsone Dam. · On 8 June, China-Myanmar Swe Myo Pauk Phaw Friendship Foundation was formed. · On 11 June, China-Myanmar motor-caravan scheduled journey was announced to promote friendship between the two nations, which would take place the following October. · On 18 June, Union Minister U Ohn Win, who was on his way to attend energy related workshop in China, was briefed by a Chinese diplomat that China would help build up intensified human resources development, according to Xinhua news of 25 June. The forthcoming October motor-caravan to promote friendship was planned to include free medical treatment, donation to poor areas, building of schools, helping, supporting monastery and orphanage schools. Sports activities like boxing, football, volleyball, including friendship concert and artistic painting shows are said to be also on agenda. · Military's change of heart In a surprise move from its prior, exclusion stance for the 3 excluded EAOs, the military now said that it would accept them to participate in the peace process, without having to surrender their arms. According to Reuters, on 4 August, Khin Zaw Oo, a member of the government's Peace Commission said the army has relaxed the necessity to surrender their arms' demand, after the groups have shown "they really wanted peace". "Previously, we made the exact demand that they lay down their arms if they wanted to get involved in the peace process - they have found that difficult to accept," said the retired lieutenant general, who is due to meet the armed groups soon. Instead, he added, the army now wants the rebels to issue a statement "showing their political willingness to abandon their weapons". Responding to the military's new initiative, Tar Aik Kyaw spokesperson for the TNLA said: "We are ready to cooperate if the Tatmadaw's opinion is for all-inclusiveness in the peace process without having to surrender arms. I think, the remaining obstacles to the peace process could become easier (to resolve)". He further stressed that although the armed struggle is not the right path, it is impossible that they have to surrender their arms prior to the guaranteed political settlement of rights to self-determination and equality. · Analysis To sum up whole situation, the UWSA and NDAA were not pushing hard, statehood for the former within the union and upgraded self-administrative zone for the latter; but praised the NLD's all-inclusiveness position and vowed to support the 21CPC or UPC. Besides, both made a profound promise that they won't secede from Burma. This could be viewed as toning down their former demands, or putting them behind as a back-burner for the time being, and settling in to accommodate the big brother's priority, policy line of ending the civil war to create a market place that all could benefit. Again, the promise of non-secession, which the Bamar political class and the military very much like to hear might have loosen the animosity against the two groups,considered to be the Chinese proxies. But the real point is, it is just a lip-service that really doesn't cost anything, as the two won't benefit, in actual term, by pushing for secession. For China, unlike Russia's Putin isn't interested or looking to carve out territories from a neighbouring country like Burma, but sees it as its market place and as well instrumental in trying to still its energy hunger, apart from Burma's support to its "one China policy" and "one belt one road" economic scheme that goes beyond Burma, with regional and global ambition. Thus, the promise of non-secession works both ways. One is a welcome way out for the government, especially the military, to justify its narrow nationalism rhetoric pointing fingers at the two groups as foreign puppets that have been trying to undermine national integrity and unity is now being averted; and the other, to go along with the push of China's all-inclusiveness, as it is the only sane way out of the debacle that it has created. Besides, China insistence on neutrality and refuses to comply with Burma's demand to pressure its adversaries along the border might have played an important decision-making role. Other than that, China's cooperation and participation in Mai Ja Yang EAOs' meeting and its charm offensives are testimonies that it is for the peaceful solution and would do everything, including pressuring its so-called proxies along the border, to achieve that goal for a "win-win" outcome. And key to this is all-inclusiveness, first and foremost. For now, all we could do is to follow on how the inclusion of the three excluded EAOs would be taken in, amendments of framework for political dialogue by all parties, government, military, EAOs and political parties; and how the constitutional crisis would be resolved through a federal democratic setting, at the forthcoming UPC, that is able to embrace the aspirations of all ethnic groups, Bamar included. All in all, this positive turn of events might bring us a step closer to the realization of peaceful political settlement, provided all the stakeholders could make use of the opportunity that comes their way in a wise and pragmatic sense. |
| An Open letter to Daw Aung San Dsuu Ki Posted: 06 Aug 2016 05:58 AM PDT Ref: the 1947 Panglong Agreement- How can I forget? Dear Daw Aungsan Suu Kyi, I was at Panglong in February 1947 with my parents when the Panglong Agreement was signed between Bogyoke Aung San, representing the Bamar and the leaders of the Shan, Kacin and Chin. I was a young school girl , but I remember the whole atmosphere after the agreement was signed , jubilant and joyous. At first the Shan and other ethnic Leaders were sceptical about becoming part of the Federal Union of Burma, but they were won over by Bogyoke Aungsan's open-ness and sincerity and accepted that the formation of the Union was for the common good and benefit of both the Bamar Heartland and other ethnic States. Through mutual trust and respect both sides agreed that all members of the Union should enjoy equal status and opportunities, and each state the rights of internal autonomy, self-determination and the right to secede. The Panglong Accord is unlike the cease-fire agreement, signed and broken, and repeated again and again; it was meant to be permanent and honoured. The make and break of the Federal Union of Burma depends on whether the original 1947 Agreement is honoured or not. It is the only tie that binds the Bamar Heartland and other ethnic States. All the ethnic states have never wanted to break up the Union; even after all these years of unfair treatment by the Bamar Military/politicians they are without exception, still willing to be part of the Union. The 1947 Panglong Agreement, is the pillar of Honour, Truth, Justice and Freedom and is embedded in the Heart and Soul of every Shan and other ethnic nationalities. For them it cannot be replaced, there is only one 1947 Agreement. An attempt to destroy the 1947 Panglong Agreement by deception or force will have an unsettling and unstable effect on the whole of Burma, as seen during the last fifty or more years. It could go on for many more generations, even after we are dead and gone. The Clauses in the Panglong Agreement was to be recorded in the 1948 Constitution, which was to be drafted by Bogyoke Aungsan and his Executive Committee Members. During a drafting session Bogyoke Aungsan and his colleagues were assassinated. I hope you, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, will honour your father's promises and signature, and please do not let his values, and his and the death of his colleagues, the sufferings and loss of countless lives be all in vain. Please try to make something good come out of the "1947 Panglong Agreement". Sincerely yours, Sao Noan Oo |
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