The Irrawaddy Magazine

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• Should State-Owned Enterprises Be Privatized?
• Commission on Arakan State to be Formed With Buddhist and Muslim Members
• Seven Charged With Illegal Assembly After US Embassy Protest
• Local Jade Traders Request Mining Ban
• The Beijing High Jump
• How to Grow Burma’s Economy
• New SEZ Management Committees Formed
• Bertil Lintner: ‘China is the Most Important Foreign Player in the Peace Process’

Should State-Owned Enterprises Be Privatized? Posted: 17 Aug 2016 08:34 AM PDT Staff work behind the glass barrier of a ticket office for Myanmar Airways in central Rangoon on September 19, 2012. State-owned Myanmar Airways re-formed as Myanmar National Airlines in 2014 and is undergoing a shift to become a corporation, while retaining its own budget. (Photo: Damir Sagoli / Reuters) RANGOON — Burma's government has sought verification as to why state-owned enterprises have been unprofitable, in order to better consider a move toward privatization to reduce the budget deficit. On August 11 in the Upper House, Myat Nyana Soe, the secretary of the Joint Bill Committee, urged the Union Parliament to form a commission to investigate state-run enterprises which are running at a loss. The Bill Committee suggested suspending state-run business projects during the current fiscal year, stressing that they need to be re-evaluated. Myat Nyana Soe said it is time that a commission consisting of foreign consultants be formed to evaluate unprofitable state-run businesses, with an exception made for enterprises that the government operates in the public interest from within the Union budget. "If large sums of investment have been put into those businesses and it is sure they will continue to function at a loss, then we should suspend or ultimately shut them down based on the assessment of the proposed commission," said Myat Nyana Soe. Burma's economic analysts expressed varying views in response to the bill committee's proposal to suspend and privatize failing state-run businesses. Economist Aung Ko Ko said privatization is not the only the way to fix a budget deficit, and recommended that the government first explore why these businesses have been encountering loss. "The government can still manage those businesses, because if all business is privatized, only the private sector will benefit. Customers will see the impact of this," he said. Aung Ko Ko pointed out that in the past many state-owned enterprises were handed over to people who were close with government officials and their outputs have not changed. "For example, fuel enterprises have been privatized. [But] even though international oil prices are down, the local prices have yet to fall. It is because the government does not place controls on the private sector, and finally, customers face the consequences," he said. "In my opinion…state-owned businesses in the transport sector [in particular] should not be privatized, because it affects people's daily lives," Aung Ko Ko added. Nyo Nyo Thin, a former Rangoon Division lawmaker, echoed Aung Ko Ko's sentiments on privatization and urged government officials to carry out an internal investigation into such businesses to root out corruption. "It's possible that those businesses have had losses because of corruption. If [the government] can address cases of bribery, it can manage rather than privatize, in order to reduce the state deficit," she said. "Some state-owned enterprises should not be handed over to the private sector, like those in transport. This new government should not follow by doing what the previous government has done," Nyo Nyo Thin continued. In 2011, the former Thein Sein-led administration formed a privatization commission and proceeded to privatize thousands of state-owned enterprises including factories, land and customer services. Laws exist that allow state-run businesses such as Inland Water Transport, Myanma Port Authority, Myanma Dockyards and Myanmar Airways to operate on their own, apart from the state budget. However, the bill committee criticized how after those businesses suffered losses, they rejoined the state budget and received special reserve funds. "To recover loss with the use of special reserve funds is just a short-term solution. It will not solve the root cause," Myat Nyana Soe added. However, Tun Lwin Oo, a director-general with the Ministry of Transportation and Telecommunications who is supervising those businesses, said in a press conference on Tuesday that such enterprises had tried to stand on their own but failed, and therefore need to operate under the state budget. "Inland Water Transport is operating at a loss across the country except on the Arakan coast. It is also because people choose other modes of transportation as time goes on. Though it is taking on losses, we need to continue operation to meet public needs, and therefore I have proposed that it should be funded by the state budget," said Tun Lwin Oo. Under the Ministry of Transportation and Telecommunications, the former Myanmar Airways—re-branded now as Myanmar National Airlines—is currently re-forming as a corporation with its own budget. Maung Maung Lay, from the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (UMFCCI), explained that state-run businesses were not privatized properly during the Thein Sein administration's era due to poor transparency and nepotism, causing the enterprises to then fail. "The government should have privatized burdensome businesses a long time ago. But it is important that they do not secretly hand them over to their close associates like the previous government did. The resulting problems of such favoritism have not yet been resolved. The current government knows that," Maung Maung Lay said. Tin Cho, an advisor to the Parami Group of Companies, also shared his view on the issue. "Since there was no transparency during the time of the previous government, those businesses got into the wrong hands. They bought them, not to operate them, but to sell the land. So, how is this going to help economic development?" said Tin Cho. After General Ne Win and his military regime nationalized Burma's businesses in 1963—one year after taking power in a coup—most failed due to mismanagement. Ne Win's government suffered a budget deficit; to resolve this, it printed a surplus of banknotes, leading to massive inflation and ultimately collapsing the economy, explained Tin Cho. "It all failed because there were no experts," he said. The post Should State-Owned Enterprises Be Privatized? appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Commission on Arakan State to be Formed With Buddhist and Muslim Members Posted: 17 Aug 2016 07:14 AM PDT The Central Committee for Peace and Development in Arakan State convene in Napyidaw on August 9. (Photo: Myanmar State Counsellor Office / Facebook) RANGOON — Plans are underway to form a new commission to resolve the communal and humanitarian crisis in Arakan State, which will include Muslim and Buddhist Arakanese representatives—but from Rangoon rather than Arakan State. The new nine-member commission is to play a consultative role in Arakan State—soliciting views from local Buddhist and Muslim communities, to be forwarded to the central government, which is keeping a tight rein on the region and delegating few decisions to state-level leaders. The news was imparted during meetings in the state capital Sittwe on Monday, conducted separately with Buddhist Arakanese and Muslim Rohingya "community leaders" by the Central Committee for Peace and Development in Arakan State—a body chaired by State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi, involving Union-level ministers and the Arakan State Chief Minister. Suu Kyi was absent from the meetings. Lt-Gen Ye Lwin, the Union Minister for Border Affairs, was the highest-ranking member of the committee present. The new nine-member commission will include three members from "the international community"—The Irrawaddy could not ascertain who this referred to—two Buddhist Arakanese members, two Muslim members, and two government representatives, according to Tha Pwint, a retired Arakanese lawyer from Sittwe who was present at one of the Monday meetings. He said that Arakanese representatives in their meeting with the high-level committee had expressed dissatisfaction that the Muslim and Buddhist Arakanese members of the new commission would not be local to Arakan State, but be from Rangoon. No objections were reported from Rohingya representatives during their own meeting. One of the proposed Buddhist Arakanese representatives is Win Mya, the current chairman of Burma's National Human Rights Commission, which has been widely criticized as ineffective since its formation in 2011. One of the proposed Muslim representatives—who is seemingly not required to be Rohingya or "Bengali," as most Burmese term them, or have actual links to Arakan State—is Aye Lwin, a Rangoon-based religious authority and member of Burma's Interfaith Friendship Organization. The other Arakanese and Muslim representatives have yet to be revealed. Rohingya and Buddhist Arakanese self-described community leaders, speaking to The Irrawaddy, expressed skepticism over the ability of the new commission to resolve the communal conflict, which has been largely frozen since anti-Muslim violence in 2012 and 2013. Aung Win, a Rohingya rights activist from Sittwe who also joined one of the Monday meetings, said he would only be satisfied when "direct action" is taken by the central government in Arakan State, suggesting that the new commission is a distraction. "The day the government gets involved directly, will be the day when our problems can be solved," he said. Tha Pwint, the local Arakanese retired lawyer, said the crisis could be resolved only with the imposition of the rule of law. He accused the government of "not taking action" against "illegal migrants who come to stay in our region"—a reference to the largely stateless Rohingya, whose claim to belonging to Arakan State is strongly denied by most Buddhist Arakanese, and much of the wider Burmese public. Suu Kyi may visit Arakan State at the end of this month, along with the new commission, and consult with community leaders from both sides, according to Aung Win. The post Commission on Arakan State to be Formed With Buddhist and Muslim Members appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Seven Charged With Illegal Assembly After US Embassy Protest Posted: 17 Aug 2016 05:10 AM PDT Demonstrators, including Ashin Parmoukkha and Win Ko Ko Latt, are pictured at the protest outside the US Embassy on April 28, 2016. (Photo: Myo Min Soe / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON— The Kamayut Township police have brought charges against seven Burmese nationalists on Tuesday who, in April, protested outside the US Embassy in Rangoon against the American mission's use of the word "Rohingya." A trial is scheduled for August 30. Hundreds of protesters, including Buddhist monks, held a demonstration outside the US embassy on April 28 in Rangoon. They condemned the embassy for using the term "Rohingya" in a statement issued on April 20 after more than 18 people belonging to the Rohingya minority were killed when their boat sank off the coast of Sittwe, Arakan State. A police officer from the Kamayut police station told The Irrawaddy that they opened the case against the seven protesters under Article 19 of the Peaceful Assembly Law, accusing those involved of "illegal assembly." Among the charged are three monks, including Ashin Parmoukkha, formerly a prominent member of the ultranationalist organization best known by its Burmese acronym—Ma Ba Tha. Win Ko Ko Latt of the Myanmar Nationalist Network also faces charges. Ashin Parmoukkha said that Win Ko Ko Latt originally sought permission to protest in front of the US Embassy, but the police put forward the Bo Sein Hman grounds in Rangoon's Bahan Township as an alternative protest site. The group instead gathered first in front of Rangoon University, before marching to the nearby US Embassy. "We are not guilty," the monk said. "We just protested since the US ambassador used the term 'Rohingya.' The ones who use that term are cunning. And I didn't participate in the march. I just gave a speech there." The protesters reject the term Rohingya—with which the Muslim minority self-identifies—and instead refer to the group as "Bengali," implying that they are migrants from neighboring Bangladesh. Burma's 1982 Citizenship Law does not recognize the Rohingya among the country's 135 official ethnic groups, contributing to widespread statelessness for the community. The post Seven Charged With Illegal Assembly After US Embassy Protest appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Local Jade Traders Request Mining Ban Posted: 17 Aug 2016 05:04 AM PDT Dump trucks loaded with soil at a jade mine in Hpakant, Kachin State. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters) MANDALAY — Jade traders in upper Burma urged the government to stop jade mining in Kachin State's Hpakant and Lone Khin regions to prevent the decline of the local jade market. More than 20,000 jade traders from Mandalay, Sagaing, Hpakant and Lone Khin signed a petition to this effect and sent it to government officials in Naypyidaw on Tuesday. "We want the government to halt jade mining and exports, in order to prevent a market downturn inside the country," said Thein Win, chairperson of the Mandalay Jade Market maintenance committee. About 90 percent of the country's local jade market is in the Mandalay, Sagaing, Hpakant and Lone Khin regions. The biggest jade market is in Mandalay, where Chinese buyers do most of their trading. The petition stated that the mass production of jade and direct export of uncut stones, mainly to China, had affected the local trading market. "Starting in 2014, mining companies used heavy machinery to mass produce. They sold uncut boulders directly to Chinese traders and locals had few opportunities to buy them," he added. Locals say small scale traders and gems cutters have been affected as well, due to the declining price of jade. "Because the uncut rocks are exported—both legally and illegally—to China, there's no stock left in the local market. The price of the jade has fallen about 50 percent in the local market and there is no high quality jade left in the market," Thein Win added. Burma's biannual jade emporiums rely on trade with China, and have taken a hit now that buyers are mainly focused on the direct export of uncut jade across the Sino-Burma border. Local traders say that illegal exports have shifted interest away from the emporiums and hurt the local market. "We urge government authorities to halt all jade mining for the time being, deter the export of uncut jade and take action against illegal exports. If they don't, the local jade market will not exist for much longer," said Thein Win. "In 2012, the government halted mining and the local jade market reacted favorably. This is why we are urging them to do the same once again," he added. In July, the government decided not to renew existing jade mining licenses pending an environmental impact assessment. Hundreds of licenses expired at the end of July, but hundreds more will not expire until 2018. The petition stated that the government should not take action against local prospectors who search for jade in Kachin State's mines in order to make a living. The traders said they disagree with the natural resources and environmental conservation minister's decision in early August to take legal action against the prospectors, in an effort to control deadly accidents due to the collapse of mining waste and the resulting landslides. "This is not a good solution. The Mandalay Jade Market depends heavily on local prospectors. If the government wants to prevent accidents, they should take action against the mining companies and the illegal traders," said Kyaw Zaw Aung, secretary of the Mandalay Jade Market's maintenance committee. The petition was sent to the office of State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi, the minister of natural resources and environmental conservation, the parliamentary committees for natural resources and environment conservation and the Mandalay Division chief minister. "If the government ignores us, we will take to the streets and protest," he added. The post Local Jade Traders Request Mining Ban appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

The Beijing High Jump Posted: 17 Aug 2016 03:32 AM PDT The post The Beijing High Jump appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

How to Grow Burma’s Economy Posted: 17 Aug 2016 12:18 AM PDT Author Joe Studwell spoke about the importance of smallholder farmers in economic policy at a conference in Naypyidaw on Tuesday. (Photo: Kyaw Phyo Tha / The Irrawaddy) UK-based author Joe Studwell made a list of recommended reads by Bill Gates with his influential book "How Asia Works," an analysis of success and failure in Asian economies. In his book, Studwell argues that high-performing countries such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China set the foundations for economic success by strengthening smallholder agriculture, subjecting industry to export discipline and pursuing a tightly controlled financial policy.  Studwell spoke to The Irrawaddy ahead of his keynote speech at a conference in Naypyidaw on Tuesday on the role of government in supporting smallholder agriculture, to accelerate economic development. You argue that the route to national economic success is for government to get behind agriculture, especially smallholder farming. Why is agriculture so key? Agriculture is the most fundamental question that confronts any poor country. By definition, in any poor country, 70 to 75 percent of the population lives by agriculture. It's a simple numbers consideration. If you can begin to extract some value from 70-75 percent of the population then you are on the way to increasing capital accumulation. What happens in agriculture sets the agenda for everything else. If you get agriculture right, then you can do what four countries—Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and China—have achieved. You can transform from real poverty to developed country status in two generations. But you have to get it right. By 'getting it right' you have described the need for government to provide major support to smallholders, through the supply of credit, ambitious farmer extension schemes to improve yields, and improved rural infrastructure to get produce to markets, among other measures. Please elaborate. What you want is maximized output. You want agriculture that is more like gardening. When you have large amounts of very low cost labor, which you do in Myanmar, then small-scale agriculture is very responsive to labor input. If you've ever had a vegetable garden, and if you individually water plants, individually fertilize plants, and you use trellises and grow things vertically […] you can produce massively more per square meter than you could produce with scale farming. The fundamental point is that when you have a lot of people who are underemployed or unemployed, then this kind of gardening approach to agriculture will maximize your output. But if you don't put all the pieces together right, it won't work. When heavily-supported small agriculture starts to produce higher yields, what are the wider economic effects? What happens is that everybody gets a little surplus. Then you get demand for consumer goods, industrial goods. If you go to rural China, you see that when farmers start to get money, the first thing they invest in is their assets, like their houses. They want cement, bits of construction materials like steel, glass. Then you have a demand for basic goods consumer goods, things around the house like a television, radio, bicycle: simple goods that you can be competitive producing domestically. So, you get this very nice demand profile for the beginning of industrialization. If you have successful household agriculture you get more industrialization, and more entrepreneurship. You have said that Southeast Asian economies, with the exception of Vietnam, have been less successful because they undervalued agriculture. What does that mean for this country, where small-scale agriculture has also traditionally received low priority? I'd say two things. One, if people undervalue agriculture in Myanmar it's because you exist here in a region of the world where agriculture has been undervalued by governments. It's one of the big reasons why Southeast Asia is a relative developmental failure, compared to Northeast Asia. Myanmar needs to look around the world and take lessons from the most successful countries, not its neighbors. The new government has to choose between different policy options.  Boosting smallholder farming is one option. Some might say that promoting large-scale commercial agriculture is another? Contract farming is not a good idea [for now] […] Development is about stages. It's about taking small steps and going through a learning process. At this stage of Myanmar's development, all of the evidence that I can see [suggests] that a strategy of high-yield household farming is the best thing for economic development, the best thing to accelerate growth, the best thing for poverty alleviation, and best thing to create a national consensus. On a plantation, you've got the people who work and provide the labor. All they can buy is food. The guy who controls the plantation, he wants an imported car and a wide screen TV set, and he sends his children to schools abroad. None of this is feeding the domestic economy. So there are considerations beyond agriculture. This is why I say that what you do on agriculture sets the agenda for everything that follows. Yet large-scale farming has advocates, and to some extent it has already begun. In Myanmar, my understanding is that at the back end of the previous government, and at the front end of this government, people thought it was a good policy. One problem for a government like Myanmar is that it needs foreign exchange. The country is desperate for currency to pay for imports. When these agribusinesses come along, and promise to invest hard currency, it's very tempting for the government to think, 'great, a hundred million US dollars.' But actually, you're going to create a type of agriculture that is not high-yield. It's high profit for the company. But it's a sub-optimal model. What you want is maximized output. At the outset, in any of the successful countries in Asia, there was no scale farming, no plantation farming. Later on, you get to the stage where you may consolidate farms, but you do it yourself. Where else might there be skepticism or pushback against a policy to prioritize smallholders? Well, obviously, people who wield power live in cities. You get what is sometimes referred to as urban bias. Urban bias makes for bad policy in poor countries, because most people live by farming, and you need to mobilize people to progress. Then there's a pushback from anyone trying to control large tracts of land—anyone […] engaged in a more feudal type of agriculture, where thousands toil so one or two can live in big houses with lots of servants. There are a lot of those in any underdeveloped country. It's a normal state of affairs. So, inevitably, there are some tough decisions that have to be made, and some vested interests that have to be confronted. But, at the same time, if you can develop a strategy that is clearly in the national interest, then some people who stand to lose will go along with that strategy, because they are able to recognize the national interest. At the end of the day, it depends on how this government is going to set its priorities. All I would say is that anything is possible for Myanmar. I mean, economic progress is about human organization, and the organization of people is led by governments, particularly at an early stage of development. So, Myanmar will succeed or fail based on how this government engages with the challenges of rural development. This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity. The conference, titled "Smallholder Agriculture: The Foundation of Economic Development," brought Burmese and international experts together, and was hosted by the Renaissance Institute, Landesa and USAID. The full title of Joe Studwell's book is, "How Asia Works, Success and Failure in the World's Most Dynamic Region." The post How to Grow Burma's Economy appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

New SEZ Management Committees Formed Posted: 16 Aug 2016 11:23 PM PDT A man looks at his watermelon field near the Thilawa SEZ outside Rangoon on Oct. 2, 2012. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters) RANGOON — President Htin Kyaw has formed the new Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Central Management Committee and Central Working Committee with officials from within Burma's new government, led by Vice President-2 Henry Van Thio and Minister of Commerce Than Myint, respectively. The President's Office announced the formation of the new committees on Monday. The central SEZ management committee consists of 15 members including multiple Union ministers, who will be required to submit a detailed report to the Union government regarding proposals for new SEZs, their locations, boundaries, logistical requirements, and negotiating points to be considered with state and divisional authorities. The committee will also organize sub-committees to plan and manage projects, as well as address different business categories and separate enterprises by appropriate size for investors. They will also fix rates for fees, tax, capital and exemptions. Aung Naing Oo, a member of the SEZ Central Working Committee and director general of the Directorate of Investment and Companies Administration (DICA), explained the reason for the new committees. "By the SEZ law, the former committees have expired. That's why the President has formed them with new members. They will review all zones, both old and new," he said. The working committee, which reports to the management committee, also has 15 members, including permanent secretaries from multiple ministries. "The management committee will work to make policy and we, the working group, will work on ground. We will work together," Aung Naing Oo said. Although ex-president Thein Sein once held the post of chairman under the previous Central Management Committee, and his vice president, Nyan Tun, held the post in the working committee, current President Htin Kyaw opted out of the post. Recently, Burma's SEZs in Kyaukphyu, Dawei and Thilawa have faced issues regarding land confiscation and compensation, as well as weak infrastructure. The Dawei SEZ and deep-sea port, located in Tenasserim Division and financed by the Burmese, Thai and Japanese governments, has faced local opposition for years due to social and environmental concerns, and only recently secured funding. Arakan State's Kyaukphyu SEZ, whose tender was given to China's CITIC Group of Companies, has been in the works for years but has yet to resolve local complaints regarding unfair acquisition practices and land compensation. The Kyaukphyu SEZ is expected to include an industrial zone, a housing estate and two deep-sea ports. A key feature is a Sino-Burmese pipeline project that will enable the transport of oil and gas into China's isolated southwestern provinces. Myat Thin Aung, chairman of Rangoon's Hlaing Tharyar Industrial Zone, said SEZ committees should prioritize developing infrastructure and remain cognizant of environmental impacts. "Environmental impact and air pollution are big concerns, as is developing weak infrastructure—both for our country and for investors," he said. The post New SEZ Management Committees Formed appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Bertil Lintner: ‘China is the Most Important Foreign Player in the Peace Process’ Posted: 16 Aug 2016 06:23 PM PDT Bertil Lintner pictured in Rangoon in 2016. (Photo: The Irrawaddy) It's complicated: In an interview with The Irrawaddy, longtime Burma expert Bertil Lintner assesses the many interests at play during State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi's visit to China on Wednesday.   As a Burmese government delegation led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi leaves for a state visit to China, what can the Burmese expect from this trip?  It is quite possible that China would want to restart the Myitsone project, but that would be political suicide for any Burmese government. If China wants to improve its tarnished image in Burma, it should drop Myitsone altogether, and also make a public announcement to that effect.   The Burmese have always been concerned about China interfering in Burma's internal affairs. In the North, China continues to support ethnic rebels including the Wa and Kokang. At the last ethnic summit in Mai Ja Yang, the Chinese envoy said that it supports and backs all forces working to achieve internal peace in Burma. It seems Beijing wants to see more stability along the border.  It is important to remember that China, not some Western, self-appointed peacemakers and interlocutors, is the most important foreign player in the peace process. China wants peace and stability along the border, but it will not give up the leverage it has inside Burma by severing ties with the UWSA [United Wa State Army], the MNDAA [Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army], the NDAA [National Democratic Alliance Army, also known as the Mongla Group] and other ethnic armed organizations. China's relations with those groups gives it bargaining chips, and a much stronger position in the peace process than any Norwegian, Swiss or Australian entity could ever hope for.   Do you think China is more pragmatic in dealing with Suu Kyi? In the past, Beijing officials reportedly complained about Burmese generals' intransigence and corruption. Can you tell whether Suu Kyi and President Xi Jinping are prepared to turn a new page? What are the key challenges in improving ties?  It is obvious that China, at least for the time being, seems more comfortable dealing with Suu Kyi than the Tatmadaw, which is eager to re-establish military-to-military relations with the West in order to lessen the dependence on China. But at the same time, China knows that the military, not the elected government, is the country's most powerful institution. The military controls the Defense, Home and Border Affairs ministries, and the Tatmadaw is an autonomous institution that takes orders from the commander-in-chief, not the president or the state counselor. China would have to play a delicate balancing act here, and, perhaps, even play the government against the military.   How do you see China evaluating and viewing the substantial rise of Western influence in Burma? Beijing seemed to be caught off guard when the country began opening up in 2011 and 2012. But since last year, it has been more aggressively engaging Burma and has launched more public relations offensives, inviting opposition members—including Suu Kyi—to Beijing. Last week we saw Song Tao, the head of the International Liaison Department of the Communist Party of China meet almost every key leader in Burma. China is no doubt worried about Western inroads into Burma, especially the possibility of military-to-military relations with the US, which was suggested by William C. Dickey, ex defense attaché to Burma, in a recent article.  Dickey stated that "moves by other Western as well as Asian countries to develop bilateral military ties with Myanmar suggest it is time for the US to change its approach and actively assist in transforming the country’s armed forces—just as Washington has successfully done with other Southeast Asian military forces." Many would argue that the US has a very poor record of transforming its allied military forces into more democratic institutions, just look at Thailand, Egypt and Turkey. Although Dickey doesn’t mention it, it is clear to any observer that he is talking about getting Burma away from its hitherto heavy dependence on China. Regional security issues, not human rights and democracy, are at the top of Pentagon's priorities in the region.   Western governments, including the US, usually take the moral high ground by maintaining sanctions and making statements on human rights issues. But it seems Beijing is more pragmatic and more focused on not losing its important geopolitical strategic partner and business interests at all costs. Who is going to be winner in this so-called "great game" over Burma in the end?   Although human rights are not the most important issue for the US, it can't ignore such concerns and it has to raise objections if human rights are being violated. China has no such problem, and would not risk losing the influence it still has in Burma because of any human rights issue. That's a severe dilemma for the US and the West.   How do you see Suu Kyi rebalancing Burma's foreign policy with rest of Asia and beyond, as she has been seen as pro-West in the past? She once said that she wants to make friends with the rest of the world.  It remains to be seen how she, as Burma's foreign minister, is going to balance relations with China and Japan and the West. But one has to remember that China is an immediate neighbor with vital strategic interests in Burma. The US, and even Japan, are far away. It would be impossible for any government in Burma to ignore the importance of China.   Aside from controversial Myitsone project, the oil and gas pipeline and proposed rail link between Sittwe and Yunnan is much more important. With it, China will gain access to the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean. To China, Burma will serve as a geo-political strategic buffer zone. Do you see India and Japan as major players in the future to counter China's comprehensive strategic ambition?  Absolutely, and we can see how the prime ministers of the two countries, Shinzo Abe in Japan and Narendra Modi in India, are becoming close friends and allies. What they have in common is concern over the rise of China. India has long considered the Indian Ocean their "lake," and do not want China to establish footholds there. Japan is worried about China’s increasingly assertive policies in the entire region. The post Bertil Lintner: 'China is the Most Important Foreign Player in the Peace Process' appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

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