The Irrawaddy Magazine |
- Discussion Stalled on Amendments to Overnight Guest Registration Law
- Citing Grave Risks, Shan Groups Demand Halt to Salween Dams
- Govt to Step Up Action Against Illegal Border Trade
- Rangoon Division Has Highest Crime Rate in Burma
- Three Armed Groups ‘Ready to Join’ Peace Conference
- Three Bodies Found Burned and Buried in Shan State
- Govt Recommends 31 Muslims in Arakan State for Citizenship
- Will a Chinese Charm Offensive Bring Rapprochement with Burma?
- Dateline Irrawaddy: Suu Kyi ‘will want China’s cooperation in the peace process.’
| Discussion Stalled on Amendments to Overnight Guest Registration Law Posted: 18 Aug 2016 09:10 AM PDT  Lower House lawmakers pictured in February outside of the Parliament. (Photo: Myo Min Soe / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — A bill to amend and repeal provisions of Burma's colonial-era Ward or Village Tract Administration Law requiring citizens to report overnight guests continues to face hurdles in the Lower House of Parliament. Three weeks ago, the Lower House Bill Committee recommended in its review report on the bill that all provisions regarding overnight guest registration from the original law should be reinserted with modifications. A parliamentary agenda featuring discussion on the bill has yet to be seen. The bill committee told The Irrawaddy on Thursday that over 30 lawmakers had registered to table the bill in the Parliament. Concerned about limited availability of discussion time on the floor, the committee had to hold meetings with the registered lawmakers outside of the legislative session in order to first consolidate ideas. "Similar ideas and recommendations should be combined so that the process in the parliament can be effective and [clearly] articulated," said Tun Tun Hein, chair of the committee. Originating in 1907, modified by the military-controlled Ministry of Home Affairs in 2012 and most recently updated in January 2016, the law requires citizens to inform local government officials when guests spend the night in their homes, regardless of how long the stay is. International human rights watchdogs have criticized the law saying that it gives authorities the right to carry out warrantless household inspections and breach privacy; it was used, they say, to hunt down political activists under the military regime and the quasi-civilian government. The new bill was passed by the Upper House in June removing articles 13(g) and 17 from the original law, which demand that citizens report overnight guests to ward and village tract administrators or get penalized for disobeying. However, the bill still needs to gain approval of the Lower House and was submitted to the chamber by its bill committee after they had reviewed it. At this point, it was recommended that the removed provisions be reinstated, with the suggestion that penalties should only be imposed on violators who disobey the regulation "intentionally." Despite both houses being dominated by National League for Democracy (NLD) lawmakers, the two parliamentary bill committees have voiced differing narratives on the law. During a parliamentary discussion in the Upper House in May, elected NLD lawmakers and military-appointed representatives had already met with divided opinions. Upper House military lawmakers stated that national security would be in jeopardy if the provisions of overnight guest registration were revoked, while NLD lawmakers argued that the new bill aligned with democratic norms and preserved freedom of movement for citizens. Chair of the Lower House Bill Committee Tun Tun Hein told The Irrawaddy that a law should be enacted considering all regions in the country rather than a specific place, citing unstable security in some remote areas. "Myanmar doesn't consist of only one city," he said. "There are border towns and rural places where such a law should still exist." He added that the committee would consider balancing national security and human rights standards. Zaw Win, a member of the bill committee, told The Irrawaddy that the committee is trying to take into account all recommendations from lawmakers across the country. "In some insurgent regions, such a law is necessary," he said. "In the meantime, we have also heard some logistical examples of how the guest-reporting requirement was beneficiary to residents." However, he explained that the mandatory practice would be less pragmatic in some cities where there are large populations of migrant workers and university students. Bill committee members were not able to say when discussions would be tabled in the Parliament. If the two chambers of the Parliament have different results regarding the bill, a final decision will be conceded by the Union Parliament. The post Discussion Stalled on Amendments to Overnight Guest Registration Law appeared first on The Irrawaddy. |
| Citing Grave Risks, Shan Groups Demand Halt to Salween Dams Posted: 18 Aug 2016 08:18 AM PDT  The first large bend in the Salween River—also called the Nu River—in China. (Photo: Salween/Thanlwin/Nu River / Facebook) RANGOON – Describing the potential for earthquakes, military conflict, displacement and damage to agriculture, 26 Shan civil society and environmental organizations have called for an immediate halt to major dam projects planned for construction on the Salween River. The community demands were outlined in an open letter to State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi and delivered on Wednesday. Suu Kyi is currently on a five-day state visit to China to discuss bilateral relations, and likely, planned China-backed hydropower initiatives in Burma. The letter described how such hydropower dams on the Salween River would block water flow and create hardship for those who rely on the waterway, particularly for agriculture, in Burma, Thailand and China. In Shan State alone, environmental rights groups estimate that 170 villages—with a population of over 10,000 people—would suffer displacement or damage to their farms due to the impact of damming the Salween. "We urge the new government make these decisions very carefully, because, for us, the disadvantages of the dams are greater than the advantages," said Nang Kham Mai, the campaign coordinator with Action for Shan State Rivers, one of the organizations behind the letter to Suu Kyi. The statement comes after the Burmese government confirmed plans on Friday to go ahead with the proposed Salween dam projects, those of which in Shan State are expected to collectively generate nearly 10,000 megawatts of electricity, but an estimated 90 percent will be exported to neighboring countries. "Coming only weeks before the planned 21st Century Panglong Conference, this green light to the Salween dams is highly worrying," the letter stated, referring to the upcoming Union Peace Conference scheduled to begin on August 31 in Naypyidaw. A "unilateral decision" on the part of the government to continue the construction of the dams is effectively ignoring local communities' right to determine the use of their own natural resources, the letter continued, describing the move as an unwelcome start to the upcoming peace conference. The organizations also described how exported electric power obtained from the Salween dams would not address Burma's own energy needs, rendering the projects impractical for domestic communities. "The government will merely distribute 10 percent [of the electricity] to locals. So it is hard to say what the locals' benefits are," Kham Mai said. Highlighting the decades-long conflict between the Burma Army and ethnic armed groups which has plagued the Salween River region, the letter's signatories warned that unpopular hydropower projects could exacerbate unrest in the area. Between the Burma and ethnic Shan armies, "territory designation [around the dam sites] could become a big problem," added Kham Mai. Dam locations also coincide with an earthquake fault line. This alone, Kham Mai said, makes these projects "too risky to construct." Stretching more than 1,700 miles, the Salween River is one of the world's longest waterways, flowing through Yunnan in China, and Shan, Karenni, Karen and Mon states in Burma. Ethnic minority communities in eastern Burma have consistently objected to plans to build dams on the river, which are planned for Shan and Karen states, specifically. "In the interests of ethnic reconciliation and environmental sustainability, we therefore strongly urge you to immediately cancel the Salween dams," the letter to Suu Kyi said. The post Citing Grave Risks, Shan Groups Demand Halt to Salween Dams appeared first on The Irrawaddy. |
| Govt to Step Up Action Against Illegal Border Trade Posted: 18 Aug 2016 07:13 AM PDT  The road to Muse in northern Shan State, on the border with China, Burma's most important overland trade artery. (Photo: Kyaw Hsu Mon / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — The government is to open new checkpoints along twelve known smuggling routes from border areas, after the disbandment of multi-departmental mobile task forces in December was blamed for an increase in overland smuggling. Deputy Minister of Commerce Than Myint made the announcement on Wednesday in response to a question from National League for Democracy lawmaker Tun Tun Oo in the Lower House of Parliament, about how the government planned to tackle illegal border trade—which represents a vast loss of revenue for the government. The deputy minister said that checkpoints would be installed even in areas far from the border—in Kachin, Shan and Karen states and Mandalay, Sagaing and Pegu divisions. Multi-departmental mobile task forces were deployed along border routes from 2012, with the participation of the police, customs officials and the Ministry of Commerce. Over three years, the roving teams seized more than 50 billion kyats (US$42 million) worth of smuggled goods, according to the commerce ministry. Particular focus was placed on the Muse border crossing with China in northern Shan State, and the Myawaddy border crossing with Thailand in Karen State. However, these task forces were disbanded in December after coming under repeated violent attack from smugglers seeking retribution for arrests and confiscated goods. There has since been calls for the new government to adopt similar measures. Yan Naing Tun, director general of Ministry of Commerce, told the Irrawaddy that the Ministry of National Planning and Finance's Customs Department would be responsible for the checkpoints, where goods from passing vehicles and travelers will be checked. Known smuggling routes to be targeted include, from Kachin State: Panwa-Chipwe-Myitkyina, Kanpilete-Waingmaw-Myitkyina, Laiza-Moemauk-Myitkyina, Lwije-Laiza-Myitkyina, Laiza-Sinbo-Hopin, Moenyin-Hpakant and Myitkytina-Shwebo-Mandalay. From Shan State, targeted routes include Muse-Mandalay and Mongla-Tachileik-Kengtung-Taunggyi. The Myawady-Hpa-an route will be targeted in Karen State. The post Govt to Step Up Action Against Illegal Border Trade appeared first on The Irrawaddy. |
| Rangoon Division Has Highest Crime Rate in Burma Posted: 18 Aug 2016 07:07 AM PDT  Police make security checks in Rangoon in May. (Photo: Pyay Kyaw / The Irrawaddy) RANGOON — Rangoon Division has the highest crime rate among all of Burma's states and divisions, according to the Ministry of Home Affairs. Rangoon had 345 reported major crimes from January until the end of July; Irrawaddy Division had the second highest amount with 296, home affairs deputy minister Maj-Gen Aung Soe told the Lower House of Parliament on Wednesday. The deputy minister said the country's police force was understaffed, in response to Pandaung Constituency lawmaker Khin Hnin Thit's proposal to focus government efforts on reducing nationwide crime. Divisions see higher crime statistics than states because they are more densely populated and the police forces in these areas are understaffed and overworked, said the major-general. The Rangoon Division Police Force carried out its 100-day plan from May 1 to August 8, during which time the region saw 140 major crimes and almost 4,000 minor crimes, Rangoon Division police major Hla Wai told the Irrawaddy. Major crimes, as defined by the police force, include murder, rape, robbery, burglary, mugging and kidnapping. "During the short-term [three month] crime crackdown in 2015, we saw 99 major crimes, and during the 2016 plan, we saw 140. Child rape cases accounted for the majority," said Hla Wai. But crime rates in Rangoon seem to be declining, according to the monthly figures. There were 50 major crimes in May, 46 in June and 31 in July—mostly rapes, but also murder, robbery, kidnapping and burglary. Previously, people under 14 were regarded as minors in Burma's legal system. The age of consent has recently been changed to 16, which accounts for the increase in child rape cases, said the police major. He also attributed it to parental negligence and the easy accessibility of alcohol. The police force said it achieved some success in its 100-day plan, which ran as a pilot project in South Dagon, Hlinetharyar, Kamayut and Thanlyin townships. The plan is currently running in eight additional townships. According to international standards, the average ratio of residents to police should be about 400-1, but in Burma it is 1,200-1. Those forces are directly working on crime reduction and enforcing rule of law, said Maj-Gen Aung Soe. Sixteen lawmakers debated Khin Hnin Thit's proposal during two Lower House sessions. Lawmakers accept that the police force is understaffed, but some still blame the police force for the poor performance in cracking down on crime. The home affairs deputy minister asked the Lower House to put the proposal on record and Parliament voted to do so. The post Rangoon Division Has Highest Crime Rate in Burma appeared first on The Irrawaddy. |
| Three Armed Groups ‘Ready to Join’ Peace Conference Posted: 18 Aug 2016 07:02 AM PDT  TNLA, MNDAA and AA delegates meet at the Law Khee Lar ethnic armed organizations' summit in Karen State in 2015. (Photo: Hein Htet / The Irrawaddy) Three ethnic armed groups issued a joint statement on Thursday announcing their readiness to join the Union Peace Conference, scheduled to begin on August 31 in Naypyidaw. The joint statement was written by three organizations in active conflict with the Burma Army, including the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). Although they were excluded from signing the country's nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) in 2015, the groups said they were also ready to cooperate and work with the government toward peace. The decision to open the conference to all armed groups came in a meeting of the Union Peace and Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) led by State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi and hosted in Napyidaw on August 15. There, it was decided that the conference would be "all-inclusive." "We are pleased to learn that the UPDJC, under [the] leadership of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi…has made a decision of all-inclusiveness of ethnic armed organizations in the peace process," the groups said in the statement. "We are ready to attend the conference," they added. Tar Bong Kyaw, the general secretary of the TNLA, told The Irrawaddy that his group will participate if they receive an invitation from the government. "We are ready to join," he confirmed. "Daw Suu tried hard to negotiate with [the Burma Army] to bring us to the meeting. This took a long time, but if we look at the agreement from the UPDJC, we can join the conference." Yet Khin Zaw Oo, a negotiator from the government's peace team and himself a former lieutenant general, said that he had not yet received the required "formal reply" from the three groups, as had been agreed in a recent meeting. "We don't have a plan to hold further talks with the three groups unless they pledge [to abandon the armed struggle] in their statement," he said, pointing out that the statement released to media did not meet that criteria. The Burma Army has been reluctant to allow these three armed organizations to join any upcoming proceedings lest they disarm, a demand which they have refused. Negotiations followed between the groups in question and the government's National Reconciliation and Peace Center (NRPC), including two meetings in the Mongla region. Khin Zaw Oo maintained that the input of the AA, MNDAA and TNLA would not be given equal weight to, for example, that of the ethnic armed coalition known as the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC)—whose members opted out of signing the NCA—as these three groups are currently engaged in ongoing fighting with the Tatmadaw. The UNFC's seven members, as well as the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the Mongla Army, will also be invited to the Union Peace Conference. The AA, MNDAA and TNLA's joint statement expressed a wish to end fighting with the Burma Army by first negotiating, then signing the nationwide ceasefire agreement, and pursuing peace and development, national reconciliation and political dialogue. Fighting has been ongoing in TNLA-controlled areas in particular, even as the date of the peace conference closes in. A report from the TNLA issued on August 13 said that clashes with government troops had recently broken out in three locations at once. The post Three Armed Groups 'Ready to Join' Peace Conference appeared first on The Irrawaddy. |
| Three Bodies Found Burned and Buried in Shan State Posted: 18 Aug 2016 06:55 AM PDT  A map of northern Shan State. (Photo: Palaung Land) Burned and buried, the bodies of three villagers from Shan State's Namtu Township who had gone missing in a forest in early August were recently recovered. Three Kaunghong villagers—two of them members of the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army-North (SSPP/SSA-N)—from Namtu Township went missing on August 1 when they went into a forest to search for mushrooms. Villagers searched for them and found their bodies on August 4 burned and buried near a site controlled by the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army-South (RCSS/SSA-S). The RCSS said it was also investigating the murder, but the news only broke when local villagers reported it to Shan State lawmaker Nan San Huam of Namtu Township Constituency (2) last week. "This had not previously been reported to me. Because two of the victims were SSPP members, they have been handling this themselves," Nan Sam Huam told The Irrawaddy. The SSPP/SSA is currently investigating the murder of two of its members, SSPP/SSA spokesperson Sai Phone Han told The Irrawaddy. "Two were buried together and one was separate. Two were our members and we are still investigating why they were killed. So far, we have not reported anything to any [governmental] organization," said Sai Phone Han. There were not ongoing clashes around the time the three villagers were killed and the bodies were found about 15 miles away from Namtu Township. Nan San Huam said Namtu lacks rule of law, citing frequent extrajudicial killings and instances of torture. The Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), RCSS/SSA-S, SSPP/SSA-N and Burma military are all active in the area. Translated from Burmese by Thet Ko Ko. The post Three Bodies Found Burned and Buried in Shan State appeared first on The Irrawaddy. |
| Govt Recommends 31 Muslims in Arakan State for Citizenship Posted: 18 Aug 2016 04:37 AM PDT  "For Sale" protest posters have been pasted to the outside of houses and businesses owned by Buddhist Arakanese in Buthidaung, northern Arakan State. (Photo: Aung Ko Ko) RANGOON — Thirty-one Muslims who applied as "Bengali" have been recommended for citizenship by a verification committee in Buthidaung Township of northern Arakan State, the head of the immigration department for Maungdaw District Than Shwe told The Irrawaddy on Wednesday. This has already prompted fury from local Buddhist Arakanese, who launched a poster campaign on Wednesday. Than Shwe said that only "two or three" had been recommended for "full" citizenship; the remainder were recommended for "naturalized" citizenship. Their applications have been passed to the state-level committee on citizenship verification, which will make the final decisions on eligibility. The 1982 Citizenship Law outlines three tiers of citizenship, with diminishing rights: full, naturalized and associate. Those holding the latter two categories are denied certain rights, including the right to be elected to political office. They are also vulnerable to having their citizenship revoked by the government under vague pretexts, including "showing disaffection or disloyalty to the state." However, most of the more than 1 million Muslims in Arakan State that identify as Rohingya—around a third of the state's population, and forming the large majority in the northern two townships of Maungdaw and Buthidaung—are denied any form of citizenship. Buddhist Arakanese insist that they are illegal migrants from Bangladesh, and refer to them as "Bengali." The 1982 law places significant barriers to citizenship for those, such as the Rohingya, who are excluded from the list of 135 officially recognized ethnicities. After anti-Muslim violence wracked the state in 2012 and 2013, an "Action Plan" for Arakan State was introduced in 2014 under former President Thein Sein. Included was a citizenship verification drive aimed at stateless Muslims in Arakan State—some of whom have other ethnic affiliations, such as the Kaman, an officially recognized group. A significant catch was that those identifying as Rohingya would be compelled to state their ethnicity as "Bengali" in their application papers, or not be considered at all. The drive has met delays due to anger from local Buddhist Arakanese. In the middle of last year, the applications of the 31 Muslims in Buthidaung Township were put on hold after protests from Arakanese locals. The new National League for Democracy government, installed in April, has chosen to push on with citizenship verification in June, as part of its "100-day plan." It appears that the requirement to identify as "Bengali" has not been changed under the new government. Than Shwe told The Irrawaddy, "We just recommended those who are eligible and will wait for the decision of the [state-level committee], which includes five ministers in the Arakan State government. We have no right to issue [citizenship] cards to them ourselves." Than Shwe confirmed that their recommendations had been delivered the previous week, and that all applicants had consented to identify in the documentation as "Bengali." News of the citizenship recommendations quickly reached the ears of the Buddhist Arakanese community. On Wednesday, about 400 Arakanese residents of Buthidaung gathered at the local Aye Zedi monastery and decided to launch a poster campaign against the recommendations. They also read out the names of those on the township verification committee and denounced them. Local Buddhist Arakanese residents—who number a small minority in Buthidaung Township—put "For Sale" posters [pictured] at the front of their homes and businesses, to suggest that they would leave the township if ineligible "Bengalis" started being recognized as citizens, against what they felt was growing Muslim domination of northern Arakan State, which has led to a rise in land disputes and crime, they claim. An Arakanese community organizer, Zaw Win, told The Irrawaddy over the phone that, if the committee had properly adhered to the 1982 Citizenship Law, there would be no objections from the "native" Arakanese community. He cited a grievance that two "respected men" from the local Arakanese community, who were included in the committee under the previous government, had not been been reinstated. "We strongly condemn the erroneous action of the committee", said Zaw Win, regarding the citizenship recommendations. Arakan National Party secretary Tun Aung Kyaw told The Irrawaddy that the party had requested a meeting with the Arakan State government to discuss the objections from the Arakanese residents of Buthidaung, but had received no response as of Wednesday. He said, "We basically agree with giving out naturalized or associate citizenship in accordance with the 1982 law, but the government should not restrict [recipients] to Arakan State, but give them freedom of movement, including freedom to travel to other parts of the country." He explained that the Arakanese community was advocating for strict adherence to the 1982 Citizenship Law because, if the government gave out citizenship "recklessly," a large proportion of the state's population would suddenly be given voting rights—causing the dominance of the Arakan National Party to "disappear." "Think about what would be happen if one million people got the right to vote in this state. We are deeply concerned about it," said Tun Aung Kyaw. The majority of Muslim residents of Arakan State that are without citizenship were barred from voting in the 2015 general election, although these communities participated in all previous elections in Burma, including as "temporary" citizens. Naturalized and associate citizens still retain the right to vote. The post Govt Recommends 31 Muslims in Arakan State for Citizenship appeared first on The Irrawaddy. |
| Will a Chinese Charm Offensive Bring Rapprochement with Burma? Posted: 18 Aug 2016 04:31 AM PDT  China's President Xi Jinping with State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China on June 11, 2015. (Photo: Reuters) The Chinese charm offensive in the new era of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Decmocracy (NLD) government has visibly been in full swing lately. From a Chinese envoy's fact-finding and lobbying tour to Kachin State in June, to the recent Minister of the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Song Tao paying a courtesy call to former military strongman Snr-Gen Than Shwe—while presumably preparing for State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi's visit to China—the offensive is underway. A series of lobbying and opinion-shaping measures has already been undertaken, as outlined by Voice Of America in a recent analysis.
Although speculation was rife that China was keen to continue the Myitsone Dam project that had stalled in 2011 under former President Thein Sein's government, the country's true intentions might be tied to far more than just this particular project. While the Chinese undoubtedly have a host of other business and political interests in mind besides the pending dam project, the NLD administration's main and immediate concern is how to make use of Chinese influence on the ethnic armed organizations along the Sino-Burma border, so that peace can be achieved. Suu Kyi’s unmistakable and explicit message on Monday at the Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) meeting was that although peace is her priority for the country, economic development will not be neglected. "One reason we haven't achieved peace is that the physical and mental needs of the people still cannot be fulfilled," said Suu Kyi, who also serves as chairwoman of the UPDJC. She added, "In the long run, without peace, we can't maintain any kind of economic development. No matter how much economic progress [we make], once peace is eroded, the progress made will also be shattered." Ye Htut, former information minister and spokesperson of former President Thein Sein, said the heightened armed conflict that occurred in Burma after the halt of the Myitsone Dam project could have been a coincidence, or not. In an interview with Radio Free Asia, aired on Saturday, Ye Htut said, "Because nearly all ethnic armed organizations that have not yet signed the ceasefire—with the exception of two groups in the south—are based along the Chinese border, we appreciate that China's role is of the utmost importance to us all." He stressed the importance of reaching a decision that would both foster peace and support the country's relationship with China. "I'm of the opinion that this should be done in a speedy manner," he added. Daw Dwer Bu, a leader of the Unity and Democracy Party of Kachin State and former lawmaker, said that although she welcomed the formation of a commission and investigation of the dam, people were still opposed to the project. When asked by Radio Free Asia on Saturday what she thought about a possible referendum on the issue she replied, "There is no need to do that because it is clear that the people—not only the Kachin people but also the rest of the country—are against the project." On Friday, a 20-member commission was formed to review proposed hydropower projects on the Irrawaddy River, assessing the potential benefits to Burmese citizens and making recommendations on whether they should proceed. Their first report is due by November 11. Meanwhile, Suu Kyi is paying an official visit to China between August 17-21 at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. Given such a backdrop, with Chinese lobbyists in high gear advocating for the resumption of the Myitsone Dam, coupled with the head of state reception being prepared for Suu Kyi, the controversial issue has reached a critical stage. A lot of questions remain: whether the suspension of the Myitsone Dam has a direct effect on widespread armed conflict in Kachin and northern Shan states; what the consequences will be if the NLD permanently discards the agreement; if the NLD will be able to withstand public pressure if it is pressured to comply with its contractual obligation; and if China is ready to accept a likely adjustment to the terms of the agreement—perhaps the complete stoppage of the project in exchange for support for the One-China policy, South China Sea dispute or its One Belt, One Road undertaking? These concerns might be clarified after Suu Kyi has wrapped up her visit to China and discussed the outstanding issues that she inherited from the previous government. For the time being, we just have to cross our fingers and hope for the best, for the people of Burma. Sai Wansai is a lifelong Shan political activist and political commentator on Burma, specifically ethnic issues. The post Will a Chinese Charm Offensive Bring Rapprochement with Burma? appeared first on The Irrawaddy. |
| Dateline Irrawaddy: Suu Kyi ‘will want China’s cooperation in the peace process.’ Posted: 17 Aug 2016 09:41 PM PDT
To what extent do you think Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will be able to wield her influence to look out for national interests in her foreign policy toward China? Than Soe Naing: This visit will shape her foreign policy. After she took the office of minister of foreign affairs, she first paid visits to Asean countries. She chose not to go to superpower countries despite invitations from the United States, Japan and China. She has taken a pragmatic approach. To her, the friendliest and most important countries are fellow Asean countries. Choosing to visit China after visiting Asean countries suggests that she is giving priority to China over the US and Japan. She will visit the US after China, and then will also visit Japan. Previous governments said that Burma's foreign policy was independent and non-aligned. But it wasn't. This time, we can assume that she will pursue an independent, non-aligned policy in foreign relations for the first time in the country's modern history. KZM: U Maung Maung Soe, will Daw Aung San Suu Kyi be able to fix the country's foreign policy toward China? Most Burmese people and analysts believe that China has exploited the country during the reign of U Nu, U Ne Win and the two previous military regimes. It seems like China now understands that things are different from the time of U Than Shwe and U Saw Maung and that it needs to change its policy towards Burma. How much will Daw Aung San Suu Kyi be able to work out a turning point? Maung Maung Soe: China is approaching this from a strategic point of view. It views Burma as its Silk Road exit to the Indian Ocean. So, it might pursue forceful diplomacy. Regarding China's strategic interests, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi needs to take strategy out of this. She said on August 15 that she does not ignore national development while focusing her efforts on the peace process. She said that no matter how hard you work to develop a country, growth will collapse without peace. Her strategy is to work toward peace in the country. She will want China's cooperation in the peace process. I think she will try to negotiate the strategic interests of both sides and find a situation that is mutually beneficial. KZM: In the past, the Chinese government backed the Communist Party of Burma, which rose up against the Burmese government. Now, it gets along with—in other words, controls—ethnic armed groups including the Wa [United Wa State Army—UWSA]. How productive will Daw Aung San Suu Kyi be in negotiating peace process details with China? MMS: Many people see that about seven ethnic groups based along the Sino-Burma border—including the KIA [Kachin Independence Army] and the Wa—are the largest and strongest ethnic armed groups in Burma. They are supported by China, get along with the country and can buy weapons and munitions there. The Chinese government says that it has to engage with these armed groups because they are not under the control of the central government. Some Chinese leaders think it is necessary to keep these armed groups for border stability. But I don't think this is the view of the upper leadership. China wants peace between Burma's government and the ethnic armed groups, but not just in the interest of Burma. Its economic interests depend on Burma's stability, so it is willing to cooperate. KZM: The UWSA, KIA, Mongla group and others are based on the Sino-Burma border and some of the groups are showing signs that they would like to attend the 21st Century Panglong Conference. How much will China influence their decision to join the conference? TSN: The fighting between the Burma Army and the Kokang troops provides clues as to how much influence China has over them. During the fighting, Chinese people were affected by Burma Army airstrikes. The Chinese army deployed a large number of troops along the border for its own border security. When China discovered that the Burma Army had taken a tough stance against the Kokang group, it demanded that the Kokang cease military activities. The Kokang group then declared a unilateral ceasefire. This incident shows China's influence. The UWSA, Mongla and Kokang groups along the border—which are dependent on China—did not sign the NCA [nationwide ceasefire agreement]. They stand separately from the UNFC [United Nationalities Federal Council—an ethnic alliance of NCA non-signatories] on the political front. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi upholds an all-inclusive policy in the peace process and while the Mai Ja Yang ethnic summit of UNFC members was going on, she held separate talks with the Wa and Mongla groups. She wants to include them. But until now, they have not yet said they will sign the NCA. But, it appears that they want to join the 21st Century Panglong Conference. Considering the examples, China is in a position to push those groups to join the conference. KZM: I think China may understand Burma's politics better now. In 1967, there were anti-Chinese riots because China forcibly attempted to inculcate Mao Zedong ideology into Burma. There was opposition, followed by riots. When their foreign policy pushes their ideology, it often tends to produce counterproductive results. I hope that both the Chinese government and the Chinese Communist Party understand this and hold negotiations with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi bearing this in mind. It seems like China's approach to Burma's internal peace process will be more proactive, doesn't it, U Maung Maung Soe? MMS: Yes, China will take a more active approach. KZM: And will it move in a positive direction? MMS: Yes, it will. A Chinese diplomat, Mr. Sun Guoxiang, attended the Mai Ja Yang ethnic summit. He said that China welcomes Burma's peace and his suggestion was simple. He suggested starting with what was easy to do, and setting aside the discussion about what constitutes a federal union. He suggested this because he wants to see peace in Burma. KZM: I would like to discuss the role of the military. The head of the International Liaison Department of the Communist Party of China recently visited Burma. He met with all of the leaders including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. What was unexpected was that he also met former Snr-Gen Than Shwe, even though it is impossible for other people to meet with him. How well do the Burma Army and former military leaders get along with the Chinese government and the Communist Party? How much influence does the military still have? TSN: After the 1988 pro-democracy uprising, the Burmese military staged a coup. Then, western countries imposed economic sanctions against Burma on the pretext of democracy and human rights. Former Snr-Gen Than Shwe made a bold move and chose to rely on China in response to those economic sanctions. The negative feelings of Burmese people today can be attributed to the strategic cooperation between the two countries during that time. Important projects like the Myitsone Dam and the Kyaukphyu special economic zone and deep-sea port were initiated under the guidance of U Than Shwe as part of this strategic cooperation. So, we see that China does not ignore his role. KZM: China has many interests in Burma including the Kyaukphyu SEZ, the Shwe gas pipeline and dams along the Irrawaddy River. The Burmese government has recently formed a commission to evaluate all proposed hydropower projects on the Irrawaddy River. Burmese people do not like and have opposed Myitsone and other dams. Do you see any sign that China is attempting to protect these interests by taking advantage of its involvement in the peace process? MMS: I don't think Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will discuss the Myitsone Dam during her visit. KZM: She has not said she would discuss it. MMS: The commission will not be able to submit the report to the government for three months. Burma is not yet ready. During the electoral campaign, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi said she would make the details of the Myitsone Dam Agreement public but she has not done so yet. So, Burma's government is not ready to address it. China thinks that the environmentalist groups that oppose the Myitsone Dam are inflaming anti-Chinese sentiment on the pretext of Myitsone. China will not let anti-Chinese sentiment run high just because of the Myitsone Dam. It would avoid it. KZM: You mean China can afford to abandon the Myitsone project? MMS: Yes, it can. KZM: Then what is its next target, since Burma is economically important for China? MMS: Its strategy is not Myitsone, but to gain an exit to the Indian Ocean via the Silk Road Economic Belt. While coastal regions in eastern China have developed and the annual per capita income of people there is US$25,000, thanks to maritime trade, the annual per capita income of landlocked parts of the country is only around $8,000. So, it wants to establish a trade route for them. They estimate that the investment in the Kyaukphyu SEZ and deep-sea port is around $8 billion, and it will need to invest $89 billion over the next 35 years. China wants to construct a railroad and highway to Kyaukphyu to build a trade route. Then, landlocked southern areas of China will be able to annually trade billions worth of goods to the West via the Indian Ocean. It will focus on this strategy. KZM: Do you think Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's visit to China as State Counselor will benefit the people more than the visits of former military leaders including Than Shwe? Do you think Sino-Burma relations will improve compared to the past decades? TSN: I think it will get better. KZM: What about you, U Maung Maung Soe? MMS: I also think that it will get better and that the visit will be more beneficial to Burmese people. KZM: Thank you so much for your contributions! The post Dateline Irrawaddy: Suu Kyi ‘will want China's cooperation in the peace process.’ appeared first on The Irrawaddy. |
Kyaw Zwa Moe: Welcome to Dateline Irrawaddy! This week, we'll discuss State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's visit to China, which began on Wednesday, and if she will be able to exert her influence to protect national interests or if she will continue her predecessors' contentious policy, which favored China. Political analysts U Than Soe Naing and U Maung Maung Soe, both of whom are experts on Burmese politics and China affairs, will join me for the discussion. I'm Irrawaddy English editor Kyaw Zwa Moe.| You are subscribed to email updates from The Irrawaddy. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
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