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- FRAMEWORK FOR POLITICAL DIALOGUE: UNFC's boycott leads to peace process deterioration
- EBO Background Paper No. 4/2016 - Contesting Territories
| FRAMEWORK FOR POLITICAL DIALOGUE: UNFC's boycott leads to peace process deterioration Posted: 21 Sep 2016 04:12 AM PDT  According to the UNFC Joint General Secretary Tun Zaw: "The government has started inviting Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) to the meeting on reviewing the framework (for political dialogue). We have been invited to attend the meeting, which will be held from the 15 to 17 (September). We replied that the time is not right for us now. We have to submit reports to our respective headquarters after the 21st Century Panglong Conference. At the same time, there are also eight demands we have made concerning the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). The government has agreed to continue discussing these demands so we want to discuss them first." The UNFC eight point proposal that should be added to the NCA are: 1. Bilateral ceasefire agreement between the government-military and the UNFC; 2. To build a federal union with result achieved from 21CPC; 3. Agreement of tripartite dialogue composition; 4. Drafting and promulgation of constitutional law based on the outcome of 21CPC; 5. Advance agreement on Military Codes of Conduct (CoC) and monitoring on Terms of Reference (ToR); 6. Formation of military Joint Monitoring Committee (JMC) with representatives from government, EAOs and international figures acceptable to both parties; 7. Formation of a neutral, enforcement tribunal for NCA involving domestic and international law experts and judges that are acceptable to both parties; and 8. Developmental projects to be tackled according to Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), in cooperation with the public and the EAOs. (Source: UNFC Documentation) The UNFC seems to be banking on levelling the political playing field through implementation of genuine nationwide ceasefire, so that it could participate in the 21CPC without going through the signing of NCA, which it is keen to amend for the document doesn't fully caters to it's aspirations. Given that the NCA is being endorsed by the parliament during Thein Sein regime last year and also explicitly taken over by the National League for Democracy (NLD) regime, there is little chance that it would be amended. Besides, regarding the bilateral ceasefire agreement proposal, Dr Tin Myo Win, top peace negotiator of State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, has officially replied that the military won't be going along, as it had also not done this when the 8 EAOs signed the NCA, on 15 October 2015. The present situation now could be that the UNFC would either disregard the FPD amendment invitation of the government and opted out of the peace process or join the government prescribed scheme without much fuss. But as the government has been aggressively pushing the non-signatory EAOs politically and militarily to sign the NCA, just the opposite, with the determination to resist the pressure, seems to be gaining ground among the UNFC members. The military has been coming down hard on the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) with military offensives since the end of 21CPC and sending reinforcement into Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) controlled areas threatening to attack, both of which are hard core UNFC members. As neither side seems to be giving in, a temporary solution is needed. And that would be at least the military agreeing to the bilateral ceasefire agreement declaration first, followed by negotiation process on sticky topics like tripartite dialogue, federal union formation and other debatable issues that would take more time to work out. And if initial agreement could be negotiated during the FPD amendments or fine-tuning, the NCA could be altered and incorporated with facts achieved from it. And at the same time, allowing the non-signatory to participate in the state-level political dialogue, while gearing up for the forthcoming UPC, which will be held within six months. The military faction advocated line that all non-signatory EAOs have to sign the NCA first, before being allowed to participate in state-level political dialogue, should be shelved, not to torpedo the whole peace process immediately that would bring all to a stalemate or square one. Meanwhile, the UNFC and 8 EAOs that signed the NCA will meet from 26 -30 September, probably to discuss on how the EAOs as a whole should go about with the 21CPC. "Well begun is half done" motto actually should be the guideline, but instead Suu Kyi has waded into the peace process hurriedly, against all suggestions. She reasoned that peace has no time to wait and that she and her party were fighting against time constraint and odds to do it, whatever she really meant to say by that. But the real reason might be her timing to coincide with her Europe and United States visits following the 21CPC grand opening, which would put her in favourable international limelight, especially when she is positioned to give her first speech at the United Nations General Assembly. The 21CPC recently held was just an opening, which basic necessity like altering FPD and possible amendments of the NCA, that needs to be adequately addressed involving the non-NCA signing EAOs, which formed the majority of 13 to just 8 EAOs signed. The main concern of the whole peace process is all-inclusivity of all EAOs in the first place and this has also not been able to achieve, as the military was able to block it by excluding the 3 EAOs that it harbours animosity. And this has been the core point that made the UNFC not to sign the NCA. But if the 21CPC is to be an all-inclusive one, the military and government would have to let the excluded EAOs come in. And only after this agreement, the amendments of FPD and eventually the NCA, that is acceptable to all EAOs, could be worked out. Then the signing of NCA could follow, leading to the UPC or 21CPC. But the 21CPC was opened without necessary preparation and thus, in effect, could be said that it is "the cart before the horse" sort of undertaking. The worst thing is that the NCA amendment proposal of the UNFC is still hanging in the air, which the government and military so far refused to agree to. And without amendments there is no way that the UNFC would ink the document. To sum up the situation, sooner than later, a decision have to be made if the government, or better Suu Kyi, is going to be accommodative to the UNFC proposal or will opt for the military suggested trend of exclusion, side-lining the 3 EAOs and refusing to amend the NCA. If Suu Kyi's choice is the former the EAOs will prevail and the all-inclusive peace process could go on, if the latter, the military will be the winner and we all could as well kiss goodbye to the all-inclusive political participation, durable ceasefire agreement that would lead us to political settlement and lasting peace. | ||||
| Posted: 20 Sep 2016 11:56 PM PDT Day Twelve. Friday, 2 September 2016 The best way to build trust is to be trustworthy. The Global Negotiator Today I miss several presentations, especially those for the pre-noon session, particularly by the UNFC team that is presenting its combined paper in 5 ten-minute parts by 5 of their leaders well acquainted with the local media: Nai Hong Sa, Khu Oo Reh, Col Sinwa, Maj Gen Hkun Hseng, and U Twan Zaw.  Nai Hong Sa's proposal that the country adopts a new moniker, not Burma or Myanmar, that represents only the majority Bamar/Burmans had created quite a stir, I'm told when I get back during the lunch break. (I also missed two presentations yesterday: one by PaO National Liberation Organization and the other by PaO National Organization. My notes were empty about PNLO and PNO proposals. Maybe I was among those caught asleep by the media?) I have been visiting a friend, whom I regard as a brother in the cause for peace: the controversial U Aung Min. We first met on 19 November 2011, almost 5 years ago, when he came to hold talks with leaders from 5 armed movements: Chin National Front (CNF), Karen National Union (KNU), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) and Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), all of whom have since signed bilateral agreements, if not the NCA.
But since the new government was established in March this year, he has been mostly out of the picture. He parted ways with many of his close sidekicks, especially U Hla Maung Shwe, who chose to work with the new peace process led by Ms Suu Kyi. Now each of them has set up separate NGOs: Center for Peace and Reconciliation (CPR) by U Hla Maung Shwe and Peace and Development Foundation (PDF) by himself. He told Sao Yawd Serk, leader of the RCSS on a visit to Rangoon in May he wanted a free hand as during U Thein Sein's tenure and didn't fancy someone standing behind him and breathing down his neck while he worked. "That's why I have declined their offer to join them," he said at that time. I ask him how he is feeling now after nearly 5 months. After all, don't they say time is a great healer? He is forthright with an English quote as the answer to my question: The first to apologize is the bravest The first to forgive is the strongest The first to forget is the happiest (Unknown) William Shein, as he is known to his former schoolmates, also has some advice for the people working in the government's peace apparatus: · One US presidential candidate seeks advice from an elderly statesman what he should do to win the elections. And the latter asks him, "Do you have somebody in mind as your national security advisor?" Candidate: Yes. Statesman: How close is he to you? Candidate: Well, he can knock at my door and wake me up anytime he thinks it's important enough. Statesman: Then, the job is already as good as being yours. (Guess who he's giving the unsought for advice) · To another who has been threatening to quit because he can't do his job if he's being "pounded not only in front but also from behind," he says, "Please tell him not to give up until he's on the verge of committing suicide like I was during my term." · For the RCSS and all the signatories, his suggestion is three-fold: Maintain good relations with the military. Get as much as you can from the present government. Forge relations with the USDP's new leadership. I have a danpawk (what Shans/Thais call Khao Mokkai, rice with chicken planted) lunch with him and his most gracious wife Daw Way Way Tha. Then I'm back the MICCⅡ, where the conference has just taken a break for lunch. The afternoon session is okay, though I find nothing special to report, except for the tremendous applause given to U Thu Way, Today's chair, for his closing remarks, one of which recalls the late Prime Minister U Nu's solemn oath to the remains of Aung San and other martyrs in July 1947: If I ever become rich during my tenure, may I burn in hell forever. The day ends with a dinner party at Tai Kitchen, owned by a young Shan from Kengtung. There, we are treated to an improvised song sung by another young Shan, who's an MP. He draws an applause when he croons: "News about non-Shans taking over Shan State don't bother me Because my mother's son is set to take over Naypyitaw" Day Thirteen. Saturday, 3 September 2016 The absence causes a breakdown in the trust. Make regular trips. The Global Negotiator  The morning, being the last day, all of us get packed, to be ready to depart after lunch, when the conference is expected to conclude. Today only 10 speakers remain. The following are excerpts from some of them: U Aung Kyi Introduction of "Business for Peace" concept, which is a new one for many in the audience  Ngai Sak, Chin Democratic Party (In response to U Win Htein's suggestion on the first day: We should consider more about what we can give rather than what we want) We have nothing left to give. Only to ask for. (Clapping of hands follows) Col Kyaw Soe Oo, Tatmadaw On 22 July 2015, fiscal decentralization to states and regions was announced. Col Nay Lin Tun, Tatmadaw We will need to complete the DDR/SSR program as soon as possible, and complete the political dialogues and peace conferences within 3-5 years.
(Earlier, another officer had read out a paper- which I missed-that says in essence that "in Burma, DDR must come before SSR, because good governance, the essential ingredient, has been gradually improved, unlike countries where good governance lacks far behind." He also warned that "everything must be done in accordance with the 2008 constitution and amended in accordance with the provisions in its Chapter Twelve.") Now, does something ring a bell to you, as it has done to me? Hket Htein Nan, Ethnic Invitee It was through Panglong that our Union came into being. Panglong is our parent(s). Ignoring Panglong therefore amounts to disowning our parents. There is a Kachin saying, "The new mushroom grows where the old mushroom leaves off." How true it is! Now we have the daughter of the leader whom we trusted to take care of things. The hand that rocks the cradle is now the hand that rules our country. Our country is now in good hand. A huge applause follows. The speaker certainly has timed his speech with the arrival of the Lady who's joining the conference to deliver her closing address. A short report is submitted prior to it: · 1,400 people attended the opening ceremony · 950 attended the daily presentations · 72 papers were read out · The conference will resume within 6 months State Counselor Instead of dwelling in the past and nurturing our hearts with vengefulness, we should look to the future and find ways to overcome them. By 11:30, the show's over. I lunch with some of the Shan MPs who tells me "Peace" is a taboo word in the Parliament. The explanation is that the whole assembly becomes unruly once the discussion about peace starts. Well, I never thought of that. Maybe the parliamentary whips are right to fear more about the breakdown of discipline, right? I have a pleasant journey by car to Rangoon, where I arrive at 200:00. | ||||
| EBO Background Paper No. 4/2016 - Contesting Territories Posted: 20 Sep 2016 08:21 PM PDT CONTESTING TERRITORIES: The need for a balanced approach With the conclusion of the Union Peace Conference-21st Century Panglong on 3 September 2015, it became even clearer that the path towards peace and a general union is problematic. While the conference was generally lauded as bringing all stakeholders closer together, it has further highlighted the many serious issues the government faces in creating a Federal Union that everyone can accept.  Myanmar lists 135 ethnic groups including eight major groups - the majority Burman, Shan, Karen, Chin, Karenni, Rakhine, Mon, and Kachin. With the exception of the Burman, all major groups are recognised as having state level recognition. After the failure of the government to fully institute promises made at Panglong in 1947 and in the 1948 constitution (See EBO Background Paper No.3/2016 - The 21st Century Panglong Conference) a federalism movement sprang up in 1961. The Federalism movement saw Aung San's promise of 'If a Bamar receives one kyat, you will also receive one kyat.' as the basis of equality for every ethnic group and as such it was seen by ethnic leaders that a Burman, or Bamar, state was necessary to bring true equality to the Union. Although the federalism movement was crushed in 1962 by Ne Win, who feared that calls for federalism meant secession from the Union, ethnic leaders still see federalism envisioned through Panglong as the way forward. While most recent calls from armed ethnic groups have seen promises of no secession, how a future federal union can be realised is a major concern. Current calls, especially by the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), to reinterpret the country's current arrangement of seven states and seven regions in favour of eight states for the main ethnic nationalities and separate or nationalities states for those with mixed ethnic groups is likely to further delay the pace of progress in the peace process. While federalism, possibly using the Indian model, is one of the main issues being debated. In a country with such a diversity of population, the fact that many ethnic states have numerous ethnic sub-groups all of whom will demand equal rights will cause further ethnic tensions. Such a problem has already been seen in recent clashes between the Palaung State Liberation Front/Ta'ang National Liberation Army (PSLF/TNLA) and the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army - South (RCSS/SSA-S) over territorial control. The conflict between the RCSS/SSA-S and PSLF/TNLA erupted in Shan State on 27 November 2015 in Namhkam and Manton townships, near the China border. Reports from the Ta'ang claim that members of the SSA-S had crossed into their areas, which they designate as Kyaukme, Namhsan, Manton and Namkham Townships, without seeking 'permission'.1 The main problem in relation to the conflict is area of operation. As can be seen by the 2008 Constitution only two townships, Manton and Namhsan, are designated as being Palaung governed territory, however, the PSLF maintains that the Palaung should be able to control the additional two townships as the Palaung are present in the other two areas. However, this is disputed and it is believed, for example, that a large majority of the people in Namkham are Shan and Kachin with a much smaller Palaung presence. Download PDF file : EBO Background Paper No. 4/2016 - Contesting Territories |
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