Friday, May 12, 2017

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine

Four Arrested Over 2016 US Embassy Protest

Posted: 12 May 2017 09:01 AM PDT

RANGOON— In the National League for Democracy-led government's second biggest move against nationalists since decreeing the Ma Ba Tha unlawful last year, Rangoon police arrested four hardline nationalists on Friday after Kamayut Township court rejected bail pleas and charged them with "committing offences against the State."

Win Ko Ko Latt, Naung Daw Lay, Thet Myo Oo, and Nay Win Aung were charged under Burma's Penal Code Article 505 (b) and Article 19 of the Peaceful Assembly Act along with three Buddhist monks, U Parmaukkha, U Thuseitha and U Nyana Dhamma, for a protest outside the US Embassy in Rangoon on April 28 last year against the American mission's use of the word "Rohingya."

Police did not disclose how they would take action against the three monks.

One of the monks, U Thuseitta, had an arrest warrant issued on Thursday for his involvement in violence between Buddhist nationalists and Muslims in Rangoon's Mingalar Taung Nyunt Township on Tuesday. 

The judge denied the defendants' bail requests, as Article 505(b) did not allow accused persons to be released on bail. The court will send a letter to U Parmaukkha, U Thuseitha and U Nyana Dhamma, who all failed to appear at court, she said. The judge set the next court date for May 22.

Burma's Penal Code Article 505 (b) is punishable by a maximum of two years' imprisonment, a fine, or both.

Win Ko Ko Latt, Naung Daw Lay, Thet Myo Oo, and Nay Win Aung argued that they had sought permission for the embassy protest, but it was rejected by police. Win Ko Ko Latt said police only authorized a protest at Bo Sein Mann football grounds, not the embassy.

"We protested at the US embassy, but we did not remove any fence from in front of the embassy or threaten the embassy," he said.

The protest took place after the US Embassy issued a statement on April 23 using the word Rohingya. The protesters reject the term Rohingya—with which the Muslim minority self-identifies—and instead refer to the group as "Bengali," implying that they are migrants from neighboring Bangladesh.

Burma's 1982 Citizenship Law does not recognize the Rohingya among the country's 135 official ethnic groups, contributing to widespread statelessness for the community.

"We do not have Rohingya in our country, but the US Embassy statement used the word Rohingya. Therefore, we protested it, and we were not guilty," he said, adding that they had a right to protest.

A number of the defendants' supporters outside the court cried and shouted at the judges ruling and as the defendants were taken away by police.

 

The post Four Arrested Over 2016 US Embassy Protest appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Ethnic States Win Right to Draft Constitutions

Posted: 12 May 2017 08:09 AM PDT

NAYPYIDAW — Burma's seven ethnic states have won the right to draft their own constitutions, an unprecedented breakthrough in their fight for equality and self-determination, according to the leader of an armed ethnic group.

After the Friday morning meeting of the Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC), Col. Hkun Okkar of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO) told reporters "the government has acknowledged the right to self-determination for the state as we are allowed to draft the state constitution."

"We were able to agree that we could draft our own state constitutions, which has never been done in Burmese history," he said. "The states under the Union have never had such rights as to draft their own constitutions, but we have earned it today."

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, who leads the UPDJC, joined the meeting on Friday. On May 7-9, the UPDJC held a working committee meeting and a secretariats meeting on May 9-11.

The meeting on Friday approved the basic principles covering political, economic, social, security, and land and environment sectors.

The UPDJC has so far agreed to six of seven principles of the federal Union to be negotiated in the second round of the 21st Century Panglong peace conference to begin on May 24. These principles are: sovereignty, the practice of sovereignty, equality, self-determination, federal Union principles, and a multi-party democratic system.

It was decided the seventh principle—the relationship between religion and politics—needed to be discussed further.

UPDJC participants had to agree that their state constitutions do not contradict the Union's military-drafted 2008 Constitution, which would take precedence in any possible disputes.

Pado Saw Kwe Htoo Win, vice chairman of the Karen National Union (KNU), said in his opening speech: "I am delighted to say that we, the ethnic minorities, could draft a constitution for our state and region. It is a step forward as in the composition of the federal union and I am thankful.”

The state parliaments, governments, and courts will come under the state constitutions, whose authority will be protected from Union government interference.

"If the mandates are unclear, our country could not develop any further. If the state's mandates are clear, the Union level governance cannot revoke it," said Col. Hkun Okkar, referring to a time when his group asked the Shan state government to regrow trees, but the state told them to ask the Union's forestry ministry.

On the topic of self-determination, the Burma Army requested to add the words "no secession" from the Union. The meetings participant's said "no secession" shared the same meaning as "non-disintegration" of the Union.

The meeting agreed the Burma Army would continue upholding its position of protecting the "three main national causes"—non-disintegration of the Union, non-disintegration of national solidarity and perpetuation of sovereignty.

"When we can build a federal union that fully guarantees national equality and self-determination, no one will leave the Union—even under force," said Col. Hkun Okkar.

He said the new name of the country could be the Federal Union of Burma and the Burma Army could still be called the Union Tatmadaw to avoid any issues with it being named the Federal Army.

Burma's ehtnic states are Kachin, Karen, Arakan, Mon, Shan, Chin, and Karenni.

The post Ethnic States Win Right to Draft Constitutions appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

India Seeks Deportation of Rohingya Refugees as Kashmir Boils

Posted: 12 May 2017 07:41 AM PDT

JAMMU, India — It was around 3 a.m. when Abdul Kader was awoken by his children's screams as flames spread through their corrugated iron and wood shack and dense smoke filled the air.

The 37-year-old burkha seller and his family escaped last month's blaze unhurt, as did the six other Muslim Rohingya refugee families living there, but it has left the community in India's northern city of Jammu fearful and on edge.

"The police said it was an electrical short circuit, but we think it wasn't an accident," said Kader, sitting on the floor of a madrasa in a slum in Jammu's Narwal area.

"They don't like us here and want us to leave. We were driven from Burma, then Bangladesh and now they want us to leave India. The situation is bad for us wherever we go."

For almost a decade, India has been a safe haven for thousands of Rohingya fleeing persecution in Burma. Around 14,000 Rohingya live here, with half residing in the Himalayan state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).

But rising tensions with bordering Pakistan and a spike in separatist violence in neighboring Kashmir, coupled with nationalist anti-Islamic sentiment globally, are threatening the Rohingya once again as demands grow for their eviction.

Right-wing political parties, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, blame them for crime in Jammu, straining public resources, and claim they pose a threat to security.

As a result, India has started registering and monitoring the Rohingya, a move which activists fear could eventually force them back to Burma where they face atrocities, including murder, rape and arson attacks.

"Indian authorities know very well the abuses the Rohingya community have been facing in Burma," said Amnesty International India's Raghu Menon. "Deporting them and abandoning them to their fates would be unconscionable."

Most Persecuted Community

Often described as the most persecuted community, the minority Rohingya have for years faced discrimination, repression and violence in northwestern Burma.

Denied citizenship by the largely Buddhist government since the 1990s, they face apartheid-like conditions. Hundreds have died in communal violence, and thousands have sought refuge in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India and Bangladesh.

Around 75,000 people have fled to Bangladesh just since October as the military cracks down on Rohingya insurgents.

Mass killings and gang rapes by the army in recent months have been documented, prompting the UN to claim this could be seen as crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing.

Some 7,000 Rohingya refugees live in Jammu, mostly residing in urban slums, eking out a meager living selling garbage or doing manual work for Indians, often underpaid and exploited.

"They are extremely poor and settle wherever they find safety," said Suvendu Rout from ACCESS, a Delhi charity providing Rohingya refugees with literacy and skills training.

"Many are construction workers and are contributing to building India's infrastructure, while others collect rubbish which helps keep our cities clean."

Parasites, Criminals, Security Threat

But a contrasting narrative is being spun in J&K, a troubled state which is disputed by bordering Pakistan, and where a separatist insurgency has simmered for almost three decades.

Over the last six months, Jammu has witnessed a string of anti-Rohingya public protests by political parties, Hindu groups, student bodies and the business community.

Billboards demanding refugees "Quit Jammu" have been put up, local media have branded them "parasites", Rohingya effigies torched on the streets, and a petition filed in the High Court seeking their eviction from J&K.

Arun Gupta, spokesman for Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is also part of J&K's coalition government, says public hostility towards them is growing.

"Jammu is a small place, and with this kind of influx, it is problematic. They are into a lot of illegal activities and since they are poor and idle, they are easily accessible to anti-national elements seeking to destablise Jammu," said Gupta.

"Kashmir is already on boil. We do not want this to spread to Jammu. People here have started to realise this and believe these refugees should leave as of yesterday."

Many advocating for the eviction even suggest rival Pakistan may be behind the Rohingya migration here, with the aim of stoking trouble but evidence to support these claims is scarce.

Police in Jammu, for example, say only 11 cases against Rohingya refugees have been registered in the last six years. These include illegal border crossing, rape and theft.

They also been no cases or evidence to suggest links to separatist militancy in Kashmir, connections with Pakistan, or their involvement in Islamic radicalisation, the police add.

Political analysts say the Rohingya are getting caught up in two different, yet equally nasty undercurrents: a global wave of xenophobic sentiment and the local Indian and Pakistan dispute.

"Pakistan certainly has a history of meddling in Kashmir, and we can't rule out the possibility that it would want to use the Rohingya to serve its interests in Kashmir," said Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the South Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre.

"But even if there's something to these allegations, this doesn't justify the draconian measures being called for against the entire Rohingya community, most of whom we can safely assume are perfectly law-abiding folks simply trying to make a living."

Little Protection for Refugees

The home ministry has responded positively to the eviction demands and last month directed all states to register and identify Rohingya refugees as a first step.

A home ministry official said after this identification process they would decide on the next step.

"Can't really say at this stage if it will be deportation. They are Burma nationals who have come to India from Bangladesh. Diplomatic consultations are on with both Burma and Bangladesh about this," the official said.

Those backing the deportation stress India is under no legal obligation to provide the Rohingya refuge.

India is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, which spells out refugee rights and state responsibilities to protect them. Nor does the country have a domestic law to protect the almost 210,000 refugees it currently hosts.

They also argue Rohingya are technically "illegal", pointing to Article 370 of the constitution which gives J&K "special status" and prevents outsiders from permanent settlement.

Human rights groups disagree, saying deporting the refugees to Burma violates the internationally recognised principle of non-refoulement that forbids forcibly returning people to a country where they are at risk.

In the Rohingya slum in Jammu's Narwal area, many feel the intensifying anti-Rohingya rhetoric is leading to hate crimes such as assaults or suspicious fires in their settlements.

The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) says while India has not informed them of any change in policy towards the Rohingya, there are signs the space in Jammu is shrinking for them.

"A few Rohingya families have informed UNHCR they had to leave Jammu due to fear," said the UNCHR in a statement, adding it was helping them resettle in other parts of India.

Madrasa teacher Kafayat Ullah Arkani, 32, say most have no choice but to stay in Jammu for the time being.

"If Rohingya commit crimes, then lock them up. Don't punish an entire community by sending them to be massacred," said Arkani. "We want to go home, but we can only go when it's safe."

The post India Seeks Deportation of Rohingya Refugees as Kashmir Boils appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

New Mon State Party to Sign Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement

Posted: 12 May 2017 05:55 AM PDT

MOULMEIN — The central executive committee (CEC) meeting of the New Mon State Party (NMSP) agreed to sign the nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA), but will only sign together with other ethnic armed groups, CEC member Nai Win Hla told press on Friday.

"What I can say definitely is we'd sign it," he said. "But it is difficult to predict for others as they are still holding meetings."

"We learnt that the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), and the Wa National Organization (WNO) will resign [from the United Nationalities Federal Council]. So, they are unlikely to sign," he told press.

Nai Win Hla said other groups—including the Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP), the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), the Arakan National Council (ANC), and the Lahu Democratic Union (LDU)—may sign.

The decision to sign the NCA was reached at the regular CEC meeting of the NMSP, held from April 23 to May 8. Nai Win Hla said NMSP had yet to meet with other groups likely to sign the NCA to announce a date for the group signing.

Dr Sui Khar, assistant general secretary 1 of the Chin National Front (CNF), an NCA signatory, said the NMSP signing would contribute to the peace process because both the government and the military prefer adhering to NCA in their approach.

"If they are involved, the peace discussion will be wider both in terms of race and region in the peace process. It will bring benefits to groups which have not yet joined the peace process," said Dr Sui Khar.

Deputy Speaker of Mon State Parliament Dr Aung Naing Oo told The Irrawaddy that he is not pleased with certain provisions in the NCA, but hoped that a solution can be found through political dialogue.

"Signing is not the end of the journey, but it is the first step, and if they can get to the next step which is political dialogue, a better way may emerge for all of us," said Dr Aung Naing Oo. "I view [NMSP's decision to sign NCA] as a good prospect."

NMSP signed a truce with the then ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) in 1995, but the truce broke in 2010. It signed state and Union level ceasefire agreement with the former President U Thein Sein's government in February 2012.

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Where Does Burma Stand on China’s ‘One Belt, One Road?’

Posted: 12 May 2017 05:49 AM PDT

China's 'One Belt, One Road' initiative is new to many of the Burmese public, though the magnitude of the massively ambitious project would need a specialized task force to understand.

Burma's Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will soon visit China to attend a two-day summit on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), referring to the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road

China is building a network of highways, railroads, and maritime routes, known as the modern Silk Road, which will link it to Central Asia, South Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Europe.

Burma's official position on the initiative is unclear, but the developing nation is likely to play a role in the grand scheme. How Burmese leadership will handle the impact of the far-reaching project is also unclear. Are they well equipped enough to understand BRI and enter into negotiations with the Chinese, who have major business and strategic interests in Burma?

There has been no public debate on China's deep sea port in Kyaukphyu, Arakan State, but Reuters reported last week that China is looking to take a stake of up to 85 percent in the strategically important port, which is part of two projects: an industrial park and a special economic zone.

Kyaukphyu is key to the BRI as it sits on the Bay of Bengal and will provide strategic geo-economic access to the Indian Ocean, where China wants to develop maritime infrastructure.

Burma won't reject the BRI; the interesting element is how the country's leadership deals with the initiative. It is time to negotiate from a position of strength.

A few weeks ago, news emerged that China was willing to abandon the suspended and controversial US$3.6 billion Myitsone Dam project, but would be looking for concessions in return on other strategic opportunities in Burma, including Kyaukphyu.

Reports citing leaked documents from the negotiations said that a consortium led by China's CITIC Group had proposed to take a 70-85 percent stake in the $7.3 billion deep sea port, as there had been talks between Chinese state-owned conglomerate and the Burmese government.

Alarmingly, there has been no discussion on this project in parliament. We need to hear voices from the local communities that will be affected by the deep sea port.

More focus should be put on the opposition to the Kyaukphyu port and economic zone. Activists and local communities say the project lacks transparency and would have a negative impact on local people. It is believed that more than 20,000 people are at risk of losing their livelihoods due to land acquisition for the zone.

Since Daw Aung San Suu Kyi came into power, Beijing has swiftly moved in to build stronger relations with the first new majority civilian government in decades. When China was re-asserting its role and forming friendships with the new administration in Naypyidaw, the West has faced its own issues: Brexit and the business tycoon-cum-45th US President Donald Trump.

Under the de facto leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the relationship with the West seems to be stable but strained on the issues of the Muslim Rohingya in Arakan State and peace in the Union. She encountered protests during stops on her recent European tour and her rejection of the international fact finding mission to look into human rights abuses by the Burma Army against the Muslim population in Arakan State has only put more distance between Burma and European leaders.

Amid the unpredictable challenges of this democratic transition, Western influence on Burma is waning, while Beijing is becoming more assertive, reassuring the status quo in the country.

Beijing has offered to play peace broker between ethnic armed groups and the government, expanding its influence among Burmese stakeholders in the peace process and holding confidential meetings with powerful leaders from the government, parliament, and the armed forces. China even extended its clout to the Burma-Bangladesh border with Chinese special envoy Sun Guoxiang recently visiting the area.

Sun Guoxiang offered to mediate a diplomatic row between Bangladesh and Burma over the flight of the minority Rohingya Muslims, who have faced persecution from Arakanese Buddhists and the military. Like in the past, China is undoubtedly exercising its political and economic power over Burma.

How the Burmese leadership counters China's ever-prominent role in its affairs is opaque, and further hindered by Burma's need for Chinese help in seeking peace with armed groups along the countries' shared border. These groups remain an important bargaining chip to China.

The Burmese are understandably wary of their huge and important neighbor—and they should be. Many question China's intentions in Burma, as well as its geo-political interests and economic sway.

Unlike the West, China is next door; it's resourceful and prepared to play the long game. With this in mind, we will soon see how Burma's negotiation skills rate with China and be prepared to hold the Burmese leadership accountable if there are huge consequences to the deals. This is in the country's national interest because, ultimately, it's sovereignty that matters.

The post Where Does Burma Stand on China's 'One Belt, One Road?' appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Ma Ba Tha Denies Involvement in Recent Anti-Muslim Violence

Posted: 12 May 2017 05:39 AM PDT

RANGOON— Burma's leading nationalist group denied involvement in a recent midnight confrontation between Buddhist nationalists and Muslim residents near downtown Rangoon that prompted authorities to issue arrest warrants for the alleged perpetrators.

The Association for Protection Race and Religion—commonly known by its Burmese acronym Ma Ba Tha—released a statement on Thursday after it attracted accusations that it was behind a nationalist mob in Mingalar Taung Nyunt Township on Tuesday night claiming ethnic Muslim Rohingya were in Rangoon "illegally."

The statement argued "people who don't like Ma Ba Tha just blame us whenever something bad happens."

Ashin U Sopaka, a leading member of Ma Ba Tha, told The Irrawaddy on Thursday that the group behind the Tuesday night confrontation—the Patriotic Monks Union— was not connected to his association.

"We have nothing to do with them. As both are run by Buddhist monks, people confuse Ma Ba Tha and the Patriotic Monks Union as the same group," he said.

The Patriotic Monks Union attracted attention in the last few years for their attacks on Muslim vendors doing business near Buddhist pagodas. They were also involved in staging demonstrations in collaboration with other nationalist groups against ethnic Muslim Rohingya.

Their most recent actions—and probably the biggest yet—were to organize the shutdown of two madrasas in Rangoon's Thaketa Township last month and Tuesday's violence.

The union's leader and following is unknown, but monk U Thuseitta, who has had a warrant issued for his arrest, is known to be secretary of the group.

"[The union] only work for nationalism," said U Sopaka. "They have their own approaches and we have our own," he added.

During a press conference held by the union on Thursday, U Thuseitta said the Patriotic Monks Union and other nationalist forces were behind Tuesday's actions. "It was not by Ma Ba Tha. We did it," he admitted.

Founded in 2014—two years after Burma had been plunged into religious conflict between Buddhists and Muslims, and with sub-chapters across the country—Ma Ba Tha has become virtually synonymous with nationalism.

Some of its leading members, including U Wirathu, preached anti-Muslim sermons, claiming that the country's Buddhist foundations are under assault, the Muslim population is outpacing the Buddhist one and that Burma needs to be vigilant against fundamentalist influences.

The association was criticized at home and abroad for lobbying for the controversial race and religion laws. Despite their anti-Muslim preaching and activities, Ma Ba Tha outlived the previous Thein Sein government, which was criticized for turning a blind eye on the association's actions.

The association was outlawed last year a few months after the Daw Aung San Suu Kyi-led government came to power as "it was not formed in accordance with the country's monastic rules."

Since then, Ma Ba Tha has been low key, focusing more on charity work.

In late April, however, they reorganized one of their subchapters "Dhamma Wunthanu Rakhita" as a vigilance society—led by senior Ma Ba Tha monks— mostly with laymen to protect race and religion "when it comes to cases in which Buddhist monks can't be involved."

The post Ma Ba Tha Denies Involvement in Recent Anti-Muslim Violence appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

USDP Will Disclose Wealth if NLD Does: USDP Secretary

Posted: 12 May 2017 03:55 AM PDT

NAYPYIDAW — The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) will disclose its assets if the government and lawmakers of the National League for Democracy (NLD) party also disclose their personal financial holdings, said U Tin Aung Chit, USDP secretary.

"Will the organizations, parties, and government members who were vocal [in demanding the previous USDP-led government disclose its holdings] now disclose their assets? If so, we will not hesitate to disclose our own," he said, at a press conference at the USDP headquarters in Naypyidaw on Friday.

As no existing law requires lawmakers to disclose their personal financial holdings, the NLD has no plan for financial disclosure, U Nyan Win, an NLD central executive committee member, told The Irrawaddy.

"No law prescribes the disclosure of assets. According to the law, lawmakers have to file asset reports, which are retained. Why should we disclose these? There should be a reason, but as of now, I see no reason," said U Nyan Win.

When The Irrawaddy asked what the NLD would do if the public wanted it to disclose its assets, U Nyan Win said: "People have to demand what is in line with the law."

Speaker of Burma's Lower House U Win Myint earlier said that Parliament would not disclose the personal assets of lawmakers in consideration of their security.

USDP officials also denied the party's involvement in the alleged embezzlement of public funds by former divisional governments in Magwe and Irrawaddy divisions.

USDP spokesperson Dr. Nandar Hla Myint said punitive actions could be taken against members of the former government if they violated the law.

"Taking advantage of these cases, groups that are lobbying against us have called our party a thief. It tarnishes the image of our party to muddle it with individual party members. This not only harms the dignity of the party but also affects its future. We deny any involvement in these cases," said Dr. Nandar Hla Myint.

Translated from Burmese by Thet Ko Ko.

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TNLA Vice Chairman: Political Process for Peace is Almost at an End

Posted: 12 May 2017 01:27 AM PDT

The National League for Democracy (NLD)-led government has yet to reply to a proposed meeting with a Wa-led political negotiation committee to discuss their participation in the country's peace process, vice chairman of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) Brig-Gen Tarr Jode Jarr said in an interview with The Irrawaddy.

The Wa-led committee is formed of seven ethnic armed groups based in northern Burma and along the China-Burma border—the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army-North (SSPP/SSA-North), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA).

It was formed at the fourth Panghsang Summit hosted by the UWSA in April. All members have rejected signing the government's nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA). The Burma Army has said it would not hold talks with the MNDAA, TNLA, and AA, unless they disarmed first.

China’s Special Envoy for Asian Affairs Sun Guoxiang met with representatives of the UWSA, the KIA, the MNDAA, the TNLA and the AA in Kunming of China's Yunnan Province on Wednesday and Thursday.

The Irrawaddy's Nan Lwin Hnin Pwint spoke to vice chairman of the TNLA Brig-Gen Tarr Jode Jarr about the meeting with Sun Guoxiang.

What was the discussion with Sun Guoxiang about?

He wanted to know about the papers we submitted to the fourth Panghsang summit. We didn't talk much because we feel the political path is almost at an end now. If the government doesn't accept the agreements we reached at the Panghsang Summit, the political path is finished. So, we asked him [Sun Guoxiang] to help start political negotiations.

The government's peace commission said on May 6 that it would meet the Northern Alliance, but only about the NCA. Also, the Burma Army refuses to change its stance regarding three members of the Northern Alliance [MNDAA, TNLA and AA].

Did you talk about these issues with Sun Guoxiang?

No, we barely discussed it because the NCA doesn't work. He [Sun Guoxiang] urged us to meet the government and the military. And we are willing to meet them if they invite us as a whole group—all seven members. But we won't meet them if they invite us separately.

Is the Burma Amy not willing to meet the Northern Alliance together with the UWSA?

We [MNDAA, TNLA and AA] met with government peace negotiator Dr. Tin Myo Win once. But, as I've said, we will only meet with the government when they invite all seven members. This is what we agreed at the Panghsang Summit.

Did you tell Sun Guoxiang that political dialogue is over if the government does not meet all seven members collectively?

Yes. But he urged us to meet [with the government]. The government wants to meet us separately, but we only want to meet as a group. The military has always met ethnic groups separately in order to prevent them from uniting. It is their tactic. It is quite obvious. Sun Guoxiang said he would try to help.

What does Sun Gunxiang think about the recent Panghsang Summit agreement?

He has not read it thoroughly. We have read it to him, and he said he would review it but that he was surprised by some parts [of our policy]. He, however, thought the points would contribute to the peace process and he said he would properly explain them to the government.

What has your meeting with Sun Guoxiang contributed to the peace process?

We expect that he will convey our feelings and our stance to the government and the military so that they can better understand us.

 

The post TNLA Vice Chairman: Political Process for Peace is Almost at an End appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

China Gathers World for Silk Road Summit

Posted: 12 May 2017 12:05 AM PDT

State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will attend a meeting of 28 nations in Beijing next week, where a summit to map out China’s ambitious new Silk Road project will likely have attendees asking – what exactly is the Belt and Road Initiative?

Proposed in 2013 by President Xi Jinping to promote a vision of expanding links between Asia, Africa and Europe underpinned by billions of dollars in infrastructure investment, the project is broad on ambition but still short on specifics.

China has earmarked $40 billion for a special fund for the scheme, on top of the $100 billion capitalization for the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), many of whose projects will likely be part of the initiative.

But with a confusing name, that officially refers to the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, added to myriad economic and security risks, clouds hang over the plan.

Despite aggressive promotion of the May 14-15 summit in China, including media carrying positive comments from Western leaders, some diplomats are suspicious about China’s aims.

"There's a lot of scepticism about China's plans. Yes it is the kind of infrastructure that sounds attractive for parts of Europe, but we all know this is about China gaining influence," said a senior European Union diplomat.

One diplomatic source familiar with discussions on the forum’s communique said: "The forum is downright glorification of Xi Jinping and One Belt, One Road," using the straight Chinese translation of the project’s title.

However, with Donald Trump in the White House pursuing an "America First" agenda, more countries may be pushing for inclusion in China’s grand scheme.

"Countries have actually been pressuring China to get an invite rather than the other way around," said a senior Asian diplomat, referring to the summit.

China says that between 2014 and 2016, its businesses signed projects worth $304.9 billion in Belt and Road countries. Some of the projects could be in development for years.

Confucius and 'Win-Win Thinking'

China has taken umbrage at suggestions that the new Silk Road is about it trying to dominate the world and mould it to Beijing's liking, saying it is good for all and anyone can join.

"Western skeptics have failed to see the fact that the Chinese don't harbor a zero-sum mentality, but encourage win-win thinking," Xinhua news agency said in an English-language commentary.

"As Confucius once said: 'He who wants success should enable others to succeed'."

China has, though, outlined its ambitions in Chinese language pieces.

"This is the China solution for global economic revival," Xinhua said last month of the new Silk Road, in a commentary blazed across the front page of the official People's Daily.

There are risks involved, however.

In Sri Lanka, there have been public protests against projects linked to the Belt and Road, and in Pakistan, where Islamist militants pose a security threat, the government has set up a new army division to protect the $57 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a key part of the new Silk Road.

The corridor also runs through disputed Kashmir, meaning India has rebuffed China’s attempts to get it onto the Belt and Road.

"We have some serious reservations about it because of sovereignty issues," Indian Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said in Japan last week.

With China saying the Belt and Road is open to everyone, at least one country not widely seen as a safe investment choice is expected to show up – diplomatically isolated and nuclear-armed North Korea.

The government of Syria is also sending a Cabinet-level minister, the Syrian ambassador to China told Reuters this week.

Politics Before Economics?

There has been almost relentlessly upbeat coverage in China ahead of the Belt and Road Forum, including documentaries on state television and smiling citizens in project countries praising the changes it has brought.

During the meeting, more than 50 memorandums of understanding, plans, cooperation letters and cooperation projects in transportation, energy and communications will be signed, Chinese government officials say.

"This … will be a jointly consultative document by all parties to reflect their shared consensus on advancing the Belt and Road," foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told reporters on Wednesday, referring to the summit communique.

Some Chinese experts say politics are being put ahead of economic factors.

"I believe that the national strategy is the top priority; economic considerations are secondary," said an economist at the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, a Beijing-based think-tank which made initial proposals to set up the AIIB.

He asked not to be identified, citing the sensitivity of the topic.

There is caution, too, from some Asian countries.

Speaking last week at a meeting of the Asian Development Bank in Japan, Philippine Deputy Central Bank Governor Diwa Guinigundo said it was hard to pre-judge the new Silk Road.

"It is still a vision. You have to translate that into some working parts," Guinigundo said.

Some Western diplomats have expressed concern in private at the high billing at the summit given to countries with poor human rights records, like Russia and the Philippines.

The diplomatic source familiar with the communique discussions said those talks had been tough, as everyone wanted a say. There had been at least three drafting sessions, one of which lasted 13 hours this week.

The original plan was for a host country press statement, but China changed that to a joint communique, the source said.

"The only explanation that one could give is that they want to add weight to this meeting."

The post China Gathers World for Silk Road Summit appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

New Fissures in Myanmar’s Peace Process

Posted: 11 May 2017 10:44 PM PDT

Less than a month before the commencement of the second 21st Century Panglong Conference (21CPC), the Union government of Myanmar faces an unprecedented situation. Both the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) and the Wa National Organisation (WNO) have resigned from the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC). Another Ethnic Armed Organization (EAO) – the Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP)/Shan State Army-North (SSA-N) – is at the threshold of exiting this crucial alliance.

So far, the dealings between the government in Nay Pyi Taw and those EAOs that had not signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Accord (NCA) were fairly single-track, courtesy of the UNFC. The existence of this influential cluster of non-signatories made the dialogue process convenient for the government's Peace Commission, in a situation where the latter had to talk to almost ten core negotiating parties in order to expand the ceasefire. The situation now appears to have radically changed, with the definitive entry of the United Wa State Army (UWSA). This powerful group recently instituted a separate dialogue channel known as the 'Union Political Negotiation Dialogue Committee (UPNDC),' bringing on board six other non-signatory EAOs.

How decisive or significant is this new approach to reconciliation?

It is worth noting that the EAOs that are a part of the UPNDC, particularly the KIO/KIA, MNDAA, and UWSA, are all heavily armed and command strong influence in their respective ethnic quarters. In fact, the UWSA happens to be the largest EAO in the country. Moreover, the Union government's reputation among the frontier populations has only waned over the past six months, thanks to relentless offensives by the military and a perception of political isolation from the revamped Panglong process. State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's recent visit to IDP camps in Kachin State was a half-drawn attempt to rebuild this lost trust. A new dialogue process that is based locally is expected to draw greater attention and significantly erode the limited credibility that Nay Pyi Taw currently enjoys with respect to the frontier ethnic constituencies.

In a situation where the government's peace bureaucracy is already dealing with structural deadlocks and lax implementation of its own obligations (as mandated by the NCA), a bifurcation of the non-signatory cluster is expected to cause even more delays and lapses. The split might not only deepen the existing communication gap between Nay Pyi Taw and EAOs based in the northern states, but also expedite the dire need for effective mediators who can seamlessly pass on accurate and consistent information between the civilian government, the Tatmadaw, and the noncompliant EAOs.

The new committee also opens up newfound space for China to influence the peace process, by virtue of the UWSA's deep-seated links with Beijing. In the past few months, China has pulled the strings on the peace process in decisive ways, mostly through backchannel negotiations with both the union government and EAOs like the Karen National Union (KNU). At the moment, Beijing's top priority is to ensure stability along the border region so as to allow its own developmental agenda in Myanmar to flourish without disruption. To this end, the UWSA, with whom China maintains strong ties, is a potentially effective channel for conflict management.

Clearly, the most powerful EAOs in Myanmar now stand for an alternative prognosis to reconciliation that Nay Pyi Taw cannot ignore. Some questions emerge almost immediately in this regard: what to make of the government's promise to eventually expand the NCA through the Panglong process? How would the negotiations pan out in the upcoming iteration of the 21CPC and to what end? Even if the conference makes considerable headway with respect to the NCA signatories, would not the absence of the crucial conflict actors render the whole exercise redundant? Does the government plan on establishing a permanent dialogue channel with the UWSA-led UPNDC?

For now, Myanmar's peace process hangs in a precarious limbo.

Angshuman Choudhury is a researcher at the South East Asia Research Programme (SEARP) of New Delhi-based think tank, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS). He is currently conducting research on Myanmar's ethnic peace process and has previously written about this subject for his institute. A collection of the commentaries can be found at his blog, Eleventh Column. He is also an independent journalist and filmmaker, and has written on political and conflict-related issues in South Asia Journal, Firstpost, The Huffington Post India, The Citizen, The Quint, etc. Angshuman holds a M.Sc. in Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding from Durham University (UK).

Angshuman ChoudhuryThis article originally appeared in Tea Circle, a forum hosted at Oxford University for emerging research and perspectives on Burma/Myanmar.

The post New Fissures in Myanmar's Peace Process appeared first on The Irrawaddy.
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