Monday, August 14, 2017

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine

More Than 1,000 New IDPs Reported in Kachin State

Posted: 14 Aug 2017 07:16 AM PDT

YANGON — More than 1,000 locals abandoned their homes and have sought refuge at Baptist and Catholic churches in Namti, Kachin State, due to fighting between the Myanmar military and the Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/A).

The displacement followed clashes near Kasung village with KIA Battalion 11 on Thursday and a reported raid by the Myanmar Army on the area the next day.

Kasung is located about 15 miles from Namti town in Mogaung Township, Kachin State.

La Mai Seng Awng, a religious leader from the Kachin Baptist Church told The Irrawaddy that 593 internally displaced people (IDPs) had come to the church seeking food and shelter.

"The IDPs arrived in Namti first," he said. "They witnessed skirmishes between the military and the KIO that happened in the village."

According to a statement made by a coalition of humanitarian groups in Kachin State known as the Joint Strategy Team for Humanitarian Response (JST), about 700 people arrived Namti village by Friday. Later, more than 300 villagers were assisted in escaping from Kasung and Zup Mai Yang villages by a team involving Baptist and Catholic Church leaders, the Peace Creation Group, Myanmar Red Cross Society, and Myanmar Rescue Myitkyina on Sunday, August 13.

The JST has raised concern for the safety and security of the IDPs and civilians in conflict-affected areas and school-aged children's education.

"The danger of a flu outbreak, and [other] health concerns remains high among IDPs, especially for children and many elderly, and those with chronic diseases," the coalition said in its statement. "It is also important to ensure that the displaced school children are provided with psychosocial support and are able to continue schooling while in Namti before they are able to return."

On Sunday, government leaders including the minister of Kachin State's Department of Social Welfare visited IDPs in the churches and met with the community leaders.

The Roman Catholic Church leader Lagyi La Ja told The Irrawaddy that the government had promised to arrange for the schooling of displaced children in Namti until they were able to return home.

The Roman Catholic Church in Namti is serving as a host site to more than 400 refugees.

JST secretary Gum Sha Awng told The Irrawaddy that locals' safety should remain the "first priority" for all stakeholders in the crisis.

"We already have over 100,000 IDPs who haven't gotten a chance to return to their original places. Their future is extremely vulnerable," he said of those who have been displaced since a long-term ceasefire between the KIA and Myanmar Army broke down in 2011.

Church members, the JST, international NGOs, UN agencies and the government have provided emergency assistance including food, hygiene materials and blankets to the displaced.

In June, around 1,000 villagers were displaced in Kachin State's Tanai Township, and have, as of yet, been unable to return home.

The post More Than 1,000 New IDPs Reported in Kachin State appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Naga Faction Signing NCA Hinges on Cross-border Agreement

Posted: 14 Aug 2017 06:41 AM PDT

YANGON — Without reaching an agreement that covers the ethnic Naga people in both Myanmar and India, the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) will not sign the nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA), according to peace negotiator U Kyaw Wan Sein of the NSCN-K.

"We are not yet ready to sign the NCA, and are still discussing it. Naga people live both in Myanmar and India. And we can't sign the NCA for only Naga people in Myanmar. It should cover Naga people in both countries, otherwise there is no way we can sign it," U Kyaw Wan Sein told The Irrawaddy.

The NSCN-K, formed in 1988, demands the "independence of Nagaland." Prior to that, ethnic Naga fought for independence—both in Myanmar and India—under the National Socialist Council of Nagaland formed in 1980. But eight years later, the council split into two factions: the NSCN-K and another fraction, known as the NSCN-IM, mostly fighting against the Indian government, was led by Isak Chishi Swu and Thuingaleng Muivah.

Little is currently known about the movement of the NSCN-K in the northwest of Myanmar, except that the NSCN-K signed a ceasefire agreement with U Thein Sein's government on April 9, 2012, but has rarely been seen in ongoing peace talks, only taking part as observers. The NSCN-K participated as an observer to the NCA-drafting process, but stated it was not interested in signing it. It has instead proposed that a "tripartite dialogue" involving Myanmar, India and the Naga be used to reach a solution.

The current National League for Democracy government's peace negotiators, led by State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, invited the NSCN-K to attend the latest 21st Century Panglong peace conferences in August 2016 and May 2017, but it did not attend.

U Hla Maung Shwe of the government peace commission told The Irrawaddy: "There was no fighting with the [NSCN-K] and the Tatmadaw [Myanmar Army] after 2000. We have smooth relations with them. But, it will take time to talk them into signing NCA."

The NSCN-K reportedly operates in the areas of Lahe, Leshi, Hkamti and Namyun townships in Sagaing Region. The ethnic Naga in Burma were given a self-administrative zone in Leshi, Lahe and Namyun townships under the military-drafted 2008 Constitution. The NSCN-IM faction mainly operates in northeastern India across the border.

There are around 400,000 Naga people living in Myanmar.

Translated from Burmese by Thet Ko Ko.

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Impossible to Remove Tatmadaw from Politics: Army Colonel

Posted: 14 Aug 2017 05:49 AM PDT

NAYPYITAW — The Tatmadaw cannot be removed from the country's politics, according to an official from the military's National Defense College (NDC) at a panel discussion on civilian-military relations during the Forum on Myanmar's Democratic Transition in Naypyitaw on Friday.

"Considering the reality, it is impossible to remove the military from politics," said Col Aung Myint Oo, head of internal and external relations at NDC.

"For a government to be strong, it needs to solve security problems in its territory. For Myanmar to do so, it has to make use of the Tatmadaw as one of its institutions."

Civilian-military relations has been a hot topic following the arrest and prosecution of three journalists by the military under the Unlawful Associations Act, and Yangon Region chief minister U Phyo Min's statement in July that the military's commander-in-chief was on the same level as a director-general according to state protocol in a democracy.

Myanmar's 2008 Constitution guarantees defense services participation in national political leadership roles. The military is assured 25 percent of parliamentary seats—enough to veto—and control of the home, defense, and border affairs ministries.

At the forum, representatives from the civilian side of the government suggested putting the military under civilian control while military representatives encouraged cooperation.

Shan State minister for planning and economy U Soe Nyunt Lwin told The Irrawaddy that many of the problems facing the country could be solved by putting the military under civilian control.

He said the military was under civilian control in periods under British and Japanese rule, and following the 1947 Constitution.

"If the military is willing to be under civilian control, many problems including land rights for farmers and internal peace could be solved," said U Soe Nyunt Lwin.

"In Indonesia, the military took the lead role in implementing transition. So is the case in Myanmar. But, in Indonesia, the military didn't intervene in politics," he told The Irrawaddy.

Col Aung Myint Oo argued that defense forces are exploited for political motives.

He questioned the theory that armed forces should be under civilian control, saying that it amounts to building mutual trust and cooperation.

"Taking a look at the foreign policies of some countries, you can see that the armed forces are necessary," said the colonel.

He suggested the government should be able to solve the problems itself if it wants to remove the military from politics: "Unless it can do so, it will have to make use of the army," said the colonel.

Though the National League for Democracy (NLD) takes a restrained approach toward the Tatmadaw according to its policy on national reconciliation, the Tatmadaw stands on its own policy, and there is an imbalance in the national reconciliation process, said political analyst U Than Soe Naing.

"According to the very essence of the 2008 Constitution, it is the Tatmadaw which will decide the fate of Myanmar's politics. Myanmar will get peace only when they display magnanimity," he told The Irrawaddy.

Daw Khin Ma Ma Myo, a civil-military relations expert, said during the forum that Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF) is not about the removal of the military from politics, but putting defense ministry policies under civilian guidance.

"It is about the cooperation between military and political leaders with the civilian side taking the leading role. It is not about the civilian government commanding military strategies. The military strategies will be designed by military leaders with accountability and responsibility," she said.

Additional reporting by Htun Htun. Translated from Burmese by Thet Ko Ko.

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India Plans to Deport Rohingya, Regardless of UN Registration

Posted: 14 Aug 2017 05:41 AM PDT

NEW DELHI, India — All of an estimated 40,000 Rohingya Muslims living in India are illegal immigrants, even those registered with the UN refugee agency, and the government aims to deport them, a senior government official told Reuters.

Junior interior minister Kiren Rijiju told parliament last week the central government had directed state authorities to identify and deport illegal immigrants including Rohingya, who face persecution in Buddhist-majority Myanmar.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has issued identity cards to about 16,500 Rohingya in India that it says help them “prevent harassment, arbitrary arrests, detention and deportation”.

But Rijiju, a high-profile minister in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government, said in an interview on the weekend that the UNHCR registration was irrelevant.

“They are doing it, we can’t stop them from registering. But we are not signatory to the accord on refugees,” he said.

“As far as we are concerned they are all illegal immigrants. They have no basis to live here. Anybody who is illegal migrant will be deported.”

The UNHCR’s India office said on Monday the principle of non-refoulement—or not sending back refugees to a place where they face danger—was considered part of customary international law and binding on all states whether they have signed the Refugee Convention or not.

The office said it had not received any official word about a plan to deport Rohingya refugees, and had not got any reports deportations were taking place.

The treatment of the roughly one million Rohingya in Myanmar has emerged as its most contentious human rights issue as it makes a transition from decades of harsh military rule.

The Rohingya are denied citizenship in Myanmar and classified as illegal immigrants, despite claiming roots there that go back centuries, with communities marginalized and occasionally subjected to communal violence.

Hundreds of thousands of Rohingya have fled from Myanmar, with many taking refuge in Bangladesh, and some then crossing a porous border into Hindu-majority India.

Many have also headed to Southeast Asia, often on rickety boats run by people-smuggling gangs.

'Procedure'

Rohingya are generally vilified in India and over the past few months, there has been a string of anti-Rohingya protests.

Rijiju declined to comment on the deportation process, even as some human rights activists question the practicality of rounding up and expelling thousands of people scattered across the country.

“There’s a procedure, there is a rule of law,” Rijiju said.

“We can’t throw them out just like that. We can’t dump them in the Bay of Bengal.”

India said on Friday it was in talks with Bangladesh and Myanmar about the deportation plan.

But deportation is likely to be difficult, given Myanmar’s position that all Rohingya need to be scrutinized before they can be allowed back in as citizens.

Myanmar officials were not immediately available for comment.

A senior government official in Bangladesh, which has complained of being burdened by the heavy flow of refugees, has said India was helping it solve the crisis.

More than 75,000 Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh since Oct. 9 after an insurgent group attacked Myanmar border police posts, prompting a security crackdown in which troops have been accused of murder and rape of Rohingya civilians.

The post India Plans to Deport Rohingya, Regardless of UN Registration appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Army Orders Villagers to Stay Out of Rakhine’s Mayu Mountains

Posted: 14 Aug 2017 05:31 AM PDT

YANGON – The Myanmar Army gave verbal orders to villagers in northern Rakhine State to avoid entering the Mayu mountain range as they conduct clearance operations in Maungdaw Township, a border police major told The Irrawaddy on Monday.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, he said that the order was "to prevent fatalities." Security forces have been carrying out such operations for months, searching for suspected Muslim militants in the region. Efforts appear to have intensified, with hundreds of soldiers arriving in two military aircrafts at Sittwe airport on Thursday and continuing on to Maungdaw the following day. Over the weekend, the authorities extended a curfew that was already in place in the township.

Reports of the most recent verbal order for locals to avoid the highlands came after a meeting between military commander-in-chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and a seven-member delegation from the Arakan National Party (ANP) in Naypyitaw last week.

The nationalist party representatives demanded further troop deployment around ethnic Arakanese villages in Maungdaw Township as eight people from Kai Gyee village were found dead on Aug. 3 with gunshot and machete wounds, suspected to have been killed by militants.

The police major could not provide The Irrawaddy with an estimated timeframe for the current military operation as he said the mission is directly supervised by army officers. The Irrawaddy repeatedly phoned Maungdaw district administrative officials on Monday for details, but there was no answer at their headquarters.

Head of the police station in neighboring Buthidaung Township Lt Kyaw Khine briefly acknowledged that the verbal order by army was made days ago but that it has not been officially announced within the region.

"As far as I know, army units have been assigned to ethnic villages which are situated near the Mayu mountains," he said, referring to Buddhist Arakanese communities.

Ko Maung Soe Win, an Arakanese resident of Zay Di Pyin village in northern Rakhine State's Rathedaung Township, told The Irrawaddy that both Muslim and Buddhist residents were told by army officials not to set foot in the Mayu mountains, where they typically gather edible plants. He added that villagers are also afraid to go their paddy fields, which are situated near Muslim villages, noting that levels of mistrust between the communities are particularly high.

A Muslim resident of Zay Di Pyin, Al-Haj Zawhie Thra, said that authorities officially announced a curfew banning people from going out in the evenings and gatherings of five or more in public. He added that around five army infantry units had deployed near the Mayu highlands.

"Carrying out law enforcement in an unstable situation is a good idea, but the authorities should also consider the challenges of villagers' daily life," he told The Irrawaddy.

Zawhie Thra said that after hundreds of Muslim residents in Outt Nan village confronted security forces last week as they attempted to arrest six men, the authorities created a barbed-wire fence between Muslim and Buddhist quarters in nearby Zay Di Pyin village and blocked all road entrances, effectively segregating the community.

The market, he explained, is located in the Buddhist Arakanese quarter and Muslims have not been allowed to either shop there or sell their goods since last week.

"Some poor people are now facing a great dilemma," Zawhie Thra said.

Meanwhile, farmers from Kai Gyee in Maungdaw are asking that the entire community be evacuated to another neighboring Arakanese village after their rice is harvested in the forthcoming cool season, said U Khin Maung Than, head of the Maungdaw chapter of the ANP. According to local Arakanese publication Narinjara, state authorities visited Kai Gyee on Monday, reportedly asking the villagers not to leave and promising them protection, a new school and road, and solar panels.

Currently, farmers from Kai Gyee village are cultivating their paddies under the protection of security guards, U Khin Maung Than said.

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Myanmar Army Questions NMSP After it Defies Military Parade Ban

Posted: 14 Aug 2017 02:51 AM PDT

MAWLAMYINE, Mon State — The South Eastern Command of the Myanmar Army questioned the New Mon State Party (NMSP) on Saturday about a military parade and gun salute it held during the celebration of Mon Revolution Day.

"There was a 21-gun salute in honor of our fallen martyrs and soldiers. They had asked if we could avoid doing so because they held Martyrs' Day without a gun salute," Nai Win Hla, who is in charge of the NMSP's internal affairs, told the press.

Three members of the NMSP met the commander of South Eastern Command Maj-Gen Myo Win, Col Tin Htut and Lt-Col Ye Htut on Saturday, said Nai Win Hla, who was also present at the meeting.

The South Eastern Command on August 5 told the NMSP not to hold military parades in uniform at locations other than the party's headquarters to mark the 70th Anniversary of Mon Revolution Day, which fell on August 7.

However, the NMSP held parades in uniform and a gun salute at locations other than the party's headquarters, as it had in the past on Mon Revolution Day.

Following this, Light Infantry Battalion No. 284 based in Kyainseikgyi Township dispatched around 100 troops into the villages surrounding Kwe Kaw village where the NMSP's Mawlamyine base is headquartered, according to local villagers.

"When asked by villagers, the soldiers said they were there to provide medical services. But locals think they are here because of the military parades on Mon Revolution Day and they are concerned that clashes might occur. They are staying at the monastery, and rarely go outside," said a villager of Taung Pauk village, who asked not to be named.

The Myanmar Army also barred the NMSP from organizing military parades on Mon National Day in February. The NMSP also defied that order and later was forced to give up two gates under its control to the military.

Nai Win Hla said the NMSP would send a delegation to meet government authorities in Mawlamyine District soon.

The NMSP signed a ceasefire with the then ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) in 1995, but the truce broke in 2010. It then signed state- and Union-level ceasefire agreements with former President U Thein Sein's government in February 2012, but has opted out of signing the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA).

It has told the media that it agreed to the NCA path, however, it has not clarified a date to sign the agreement.

Translated from Burmese by Thet Ko Ko.

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No Easy Way to Improve Myanmar’s Economy, Experts Say

Posted: 14 Aug 2017 01:10 AM PDT

NAYPYITAW — The National League for Democracy (NLD)'s economic advisor U Myo Myint blamed a legacy of inept bureaucracy, deep-rooted corruption, military control, and a lack of cooperation among ministries for his party's poor economic performance.

"The lack of cooperation is a big challenge. As there is no cooperation between the government departments, [the NLD] has not been able to adopt comprehensive plans," said the economic advisor while discussing the challenges of a shift from a centralized economy to a market economy during the three-day Myanmar Democratic Transition Forum in Naypyitaw on Saturday.

He described the military-drafted 2008 Constitution as the first obstacle in revamping the country's economy.

U Myo Myint listed the reasons behind Myanmar's stagnant economy: "Armed clashes, drug abuse and trade, declining export values, low productivity in the workforce and low utilization of farmland."

"The first challenge [to improve] the stagnant economy is the constitution and its limitations—the Tatmadaw takes 25 percent of seats in the parliament and three ministries are under the control of the military," he added.

Myanmar Army representative to the forum Col Aung Myint Oo said the role of the military could be reduced when there was stability and good economic performance in the country.

He said the country's economy was an urgent issue for the NLD-led government.

"People's anger builds up with economic hardship, the explosion of anger is followed by revolution. So, [the government] needs to urgently provide secure livelihoods for people," said Col Aung Myint Oo.

"Only after that, the government should work to adopt a strategy in cooperation with experts, military and other members of society," he added.

Another NLD economic advisor U Lay Nyunt admitted the government had not fulfilled the expectations of farmers.

"There is a need for immediate reforms in the agricultural sector. I hate to ask farmers to wait until the agricultural development strategy is adopted. We should not ask them to wait anymore in poverty."

He suggested amending the 2012 Farmland Law, as well as policies regarding provision of agricultural loans and investment, and taxation.

"I think it is time we made bold changes no matter what the obstacles are," he said.

He also pointed out the country's failure to produce animal feed at home.

"We have 26 animal feed processing plants in our country, but only six of them are operating and are not even running at full capacity. This is a big loss for our country," he criticized.

Most of the experts attending the discussion agreed that the economy remains largely centralized and in need of policies that have a grass-roots impact.

Economist U Thein Swe who served as an executive director in the World Bank said: "We should have a timeframe and plans in place now, we should have plans and goals for the next three years, the next five years."

The post No Easy Way to Improve Myanmar's Economy, Experts Say appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Govt Security Adviser Defends Rakhine Troop Deployment

Posted: 13 Aug 2017 11:59 PM PDT

NAYPYITAW — The Tatmadaw is responsible for security in Rakhine State's Maungdaw, which faces insurgent violence, said U Thaung Tun, national security adviser for the Myanmar government, in light of recent troop deployment to the area.

While concerns of renewed "clearance operations" were raised with the arrival of two planes of Tatmadaw [Myanmar Army] troops in Sittwe on Thursday morning, U Thaung Tun said  the deployment was meant only to provide security. The military's past clearance operations in the area drew widespread accusations of human rights abuses.

"Responsibility falls on the Tatmadaw when Rakhine State faces danger. It has taken on the responsibility for security after discovering [militant] camps in the Mayu mountain range," he told the press after the first day of the Forum on Democratic Transition in Naypyitaw on Friday.

The dispatch follows the Arakan National Party (ANP)'s request to Myanmar armed forces commander-in-chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing to boost security in the area on Wednesday.

"Security forces need to solve the Rakhine issue with foresight. While there is still no understanding and trust between two communities, security operations will only quash the militancy for a while, and it will return once the troops are removed. And if there are more tragic cases then and tensions are transmitted to the younger generation, it will become more difficult to solve," political analyst U Tin Maung Than told The Irrawaddy.

He said he supported the suppression of militants, but suggested the Myanmar Army should employ effective intelligence collection rather than use the local Muslim administrators as informants.

According to government statistics, militants have killed around 20 Muslims who cooperated with authorities in their operations in the area, where tensions have been high since militants attacked police outposts last October in Maungdaw.

Translated from Burmese by Thet Ko Ko.

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Hundreds Protest Aid Agencies in Rakhine

Posted: 13 Aug 2017 08:49 PM PDT

YANGON —  Hundreds of Buddhists took to the streets in Rakhine State on Sunday to protest against aid organizations they accuse of giving support to Muslim Rohingya militants, police and a protest leader said.

Buddhist monks and members of the Rakhine ethnic group held demonstrations in 15 towns, including the Rakhine state capital of Sittwe, demanding that aid agencies leave the western state immediately, Htay Aung, a self-described leader of the protests, told Reuters by phone.

"We will protest again and again until we get our demands. If the government fails to act, that is their responsibility," he said.

Tensions have risen once again in Rakhine since seven Buddhists were found hacked to death in the mountains in the north of the state in July.

The government said it had discovered forest encampments that proved Muslim “extremists” were responsible for the killings, and the military sent additional forces to the area this week.

At one suspected militant camp last month, biscuits originating from the United Nations’ World Food Programme were discovered. Ethnic Rakhine Buddhists have long accused U.N. and other aid organisations of favouring the Rohingya with aid.

Crackdown

The state was plunged into violence in October, when Rohingya insurgents killed nine border police, sparking a crackdown in which government security forces were accused of raping, killing and torturing Rohingya civilians.

About 1.1 million Rohingya Muslims live in Rakhine, but are denied citizenship and face restrictions on their movements and access to basic services. About 120,000 remain in camps set up after deadly violence swept the state in 2012, where they rely on aid agencies for basic provisions.

Pictures shared online of Sunday's protests showed saffron-robed monks holdings signs reading, "We don't need terrorist supporter group," and calling for the U.N. and international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) to "get out."

Htay Aung said the protesters demanded that the government rid the state of Muslim militants, quickly verify the citizenship credentials of Muslims and allow Rakhine Buddhists to form armed militias.

Police Major Cho Lwin estimated that about 600 people protested in Sittwe.

"The protest went ahead today peacefully," he said, adding that police had stepped up security and blocked roads leading to aid offices.

Reuters obtained the text of note sent by the UN on Wednesday to the 300 or so UN staff in Rakhine, as well as INGOs, warning of rising hostility to international agencies in the state.

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Does China Want Peace in Myanmar?

Posted: 13 Aug 2017 07:24 PM PDT

China's recent involvement in Myanmar's peace process has caused people to question whether the country's path towards peace is being shaped by its northern neighbor's close participation. China historically maintained a non-interference policy in its foreign relations, yet they have appointed a Special Envoy for Asian Affairs, Sun Guoxiang, to assist in facilitating discussions between the Myanmar military and ethnic armed groups.

After China stepped in to mediate between the Myanmar Army and the Northern Alliance in the second session of the 21st Century Panglong Peace Conference held on May 23, 2017, people have asked what its intentions actually were.

China became closely involved in the Myanmar peace process after 2013 when the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) attempted to invite representatives from foreign countries, particularly the US, to the talks.

On November 19, 2013, Kachin Independence Army (KIA) Maj-Gen Gun Maw visited the US Embassy in Yangon and met Ambassador Derek Mitchell, reportedly seeking an avenue for American involvement in peace talks.

In April 2014, Sumlut Gun Maw visited the US and met senior state department officials and officials from the United Nations.

China perceived the US government's attempt at facilitating peace talks as an effort to undermine China's long-held influence in the region; China continues to reject the involvement of other foreign powers, particularly the US, in Myanmar's peace process.

Since then, China has geared up its own involvement through the appointment of special envoys, and invitations for Myanmar leaders to come to China.

In March 2013, China appointed Wang Yingfan as the first Special Envoy for Asian Affairs to focus on Myanmar's peace process. Three years later, in April 2016, Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, was the first foreign guest received by State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. In July of that year, Minister of State Security Geng Huichang followed.

Just weeks later, on July 27, 2016, Sun Guoxiang, China's current Special Envoy for Asian Affairs, attended the Mai Ja Yang summit for ethnic nationality groups, hosted by the KIO.

Song Tao, the chief of the International Department of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, visited Myanmar the following month and met with a diverse group of Myanmar political and military leaders. Sun Guoxiang also visited the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the National Democratic Alliance Army-Eastern Shan State (NDAA-ESS) to ensure the two groups' participation in the first session of the 21st Century Panglong Peace Conference initiated by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

China recently sent Song Tao to visit Myanmar on August 2 this year. He met Aung San Suu Kyi and other leaders.

In doing so, China seems to position itself as a key player, committed to supporting the Myanmar peace process, inviting Myanmar leaders on regular state visits and making deals in economic, political and military cooperation.

In June 2015, Aung San Suu Kyi visited China and met President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang. In August 2016, she again paid an official visit after her party, the National League for Demoracy (NLD), swept to power.

Military chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing visited China in Nov. 2016 and met Guo Sheng Kun, the Minister of Public Security in China and General Wei Liang, the Political Officer of the Southern Command, as well as other officers.

In April 2017, President U Htin Kyaw paid an official visit to China at the invitation of President Xi Jinping.

As China appears to be accelerating the frequency of meetings with Myanmar's leadership, there will inevitably be an impact various developments throughout the country. But, China's interest in Myanmar's peace process seems to be limited to issues concerning the groups located along the Sino-Myanmar border. Much less attention has been paid to the ethnic groups in southeastern or western Myanmar, such as the Karen, the Mon, or the Chin. China's priority, in fact, is to maintain peace and stability around its periphery, not throughout the whole of Myanmar. In addition, China also prioritizes stability alongside its gas pipelines and other areas in which their huge development projects have been vested.

It is quite conspicuous that China turns away from conflicts which do not directly affect its interests. For example, when the Myanmar Army carried out major offensives against the KIO and took control of several geostrategic areas—such as Hka Ya Bum, Bum Tawng, Hpun-pyen Bum, Gideon and Lai Hpawng outposts, and the No. 6 battalion in Hpakant and the No. 8 Brigade in Indawgyi—China kept silent. Notwithstanding the latest attack that occurred in the gold- and amber-rich Tanai area in June and displaced thousands, China again kept quiet, demonstrating that the conflict lay beyond their immediate interests.

China primarily concerns itself with conflict in Myanmar when it directly affects its borders. For example, when artillery fire and airstrikes reached within its territory as the result of the fighting between the ethnic Kokang army and the Myanmar Army in 2015, China urgently summoned the Myanmar ambassador to China to condemn the bombings, which caused casualties of Chinese civilians.

Unlike other neighboring countries, China has frequently denied basic refuge to displaced people fleeing conflict in Myanmar, apparent as recently as January of this year, when 4,000 ethnic Kachin were forced back across the border by Chinese police.

Many observers speculate that China supports some ethnic armed groups, particularly the United Wa State Army and the Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army. Of course, China may use these groups as a stick against Myanmar if its military turns away from China and cannot secure its investments.

But, conventional wisdom is that a person or a country always seeks to ally with those who can offer better and larger incentives and benefits. In this scenario, the Myanmar Army provides larger incentives to Beijing than ethnic armed groups: China can gain greater benefits from their ties with the Tatmadaw than from those with ethnic armies.

Beijing paradoxically does not want to topple the Myanmar Army, leading China to apply the same policy toward Myanmar as they practice toward the North Korean regime. Beijing will continuously support them to remain in power as long as they continue to benefit from their major investments.

It is obvious that China and the Myanmar Army provide mutual benefits to one another: through its seat on the UN Security Council, China protects the Burmese military from international punishment and drives potential supporters of ethnic armed groups out from China. Conversely, China benefits from a range of lucrative investments in Myanmar.

To secure these mutual interests, both China and the Myanmar Army strongly reject international involvement by other actors in Myanmar's peace process.

Therefore, domestic and international peacemakers should remain vigilant and aware of China's involvement in affairs concerning peace in Myanmar. Placing too much trust in the momentum of a peace process mediated by China may, in turn, be misleading.

Joe Kumbun is the pseudonym of a Kachin State-based analyst.

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