Wednesday, April 10, 2019

The Irrawaddy Magazine

The Irrawaddy Magazine

AA Kills 20 Soldiers in N. Rakhine’s Ancient Capital Mrauk-U

Posted: 10 Apr 2019 06:05 AM PDT

YANGON—About 20 government soldiers were killed when the Arakan Army staged attacks on two Myanmar Army artillery bases on the outskirts of Mrauk-U in northern Rakhine State on Tuesday night, the armed ethnic group's deputy chief claimed.

Brigadier-General Nyo Tun Aung said the AA attacked the No. 31 Police Regiment because troops from Light Infantry Division (LID) No. 22 were firing 105-mm howitzer shells almost daily from the base and another Army base in Lay Hnyin Taung about 8 km from downtown Mrauk-U.

Additional Myanmar Army (or Tatmadaw) troops were dispatched from other locations to reinforce the police regiment and Lay Hnyin Taung bases but were ambushed by AA rebels on the way. The AA deputy chief said the group burned seven Army speedboats in the Lay Hnyin Taung clash and confiscated about seven assault rifles and one MG-42 machine gun, according to an initial count.

"That police regiment is a major source of shelling [into the mountains] in Mrauk-U Township," Brig-Gen. Nyo Tun Aung said.

He said the Myanmar military used three fighter jets and two bombers as well as attack helicopters in the battle against the AA from Tuesday night to Wednesday morning. AA spokesman U Khine Thukha told The Irrawaddy the AA captured some prisoners of war from two artillery units but declined to provide details.

Sources close to the AA told The Irrawaddy the AA seized all military materiel and forced the vast majority of LID No. 55 troops based at No. 31 Police Regiment to flee. At around dawn, however, all AA troops retreated from the police compound as they came under attack from Tatmadaw fighter jets firing rockets.

No. 31 Police Regiment, situated near Koe Thaung Pagoda in the ancient city of Mrauk-U / Moe Myint / The Irrawaddy

Some local residents also claimed that Army troops had been disguising themselves as police and firing artillery from the police regiment into the mountains since last month. When this Irrawaddy reporter visited Mrauk-U recently, dozens of troops from LID No. 55 were observed conducting regular patrols near Koe Thaung pagoda, a popular tourist site, and police and Army personnel were seen conducting joint patrols even in downtown Mrauk-U.

Myanmar military spokesman Brigadier-General Zaw Min Tun confirmed to The Irrawaddy Burmese edition that the police regiment and temporary base were attacked by the AA and that some Tatmadaw troops had been killed, but he declined to reveal specific casualty figures.

Army Captain Htet Thura Soe of Defense Services Academy (DSA) intake 52 was among those killed in Tuesday's attack, according to Facebook posts by his wife and some military supporters. Some military officers from another unit praised Capt. Htet Thura Soe as a hero sacrificed in battle.

Last week, a military captain and his entire squadron were killed during a clash with AA rebels in a remote area of northern Rakhine's Buthidaung.

Mrauk-U residents began posting online updates about the clash starting at about 10 p.m. on Tuesday. They said that at about 5 a.m., Army fighter jets flew over the city and fired into the mountains to the east.

Myanmar Air Force JF-17 fighter jets / Myo Htwe / Facebook

A 1-year-old child and her mother from Chaung Thit village a few kilometers from Mrauk-U Police Regiment were transferred from Mrauk-U Hospital to Sittwe General Hospital after sustaining bullet wounds to the chest. Total civilian casualties in the latest clash remained unclear as of Wednesday evening.

Security in northern Rakhine was tightened on Tuesday after the AA's deputy chief promised Arakanese living outside the region a "surprise gift" to commemorate the AA's 1oth anniversary on Wednesday.

In a message posted to Facebook on Wednesday morning, AA deputy chief Brig-Gen. Nyo Tun Aung said the group had sabotaged at least three locations where Army artillery units are based in Mrauk-U. He wrote that fighting between the Army and the AA would continue throughout the Water Festival period, a long annual holiday for Buddhists in Myanmar celebrated by splashing water, spraying water on pavilions, visiting pagodas and paying respects to the elderly.

Amid the intensifying conflict in northern Rakhine, the AA did not publicly commemorate the 10th anniversary of its founding at its headquarters in Laiza, in the part of Kachin State controlled by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA).

In his message, the AA deputy chief also said that the group would change its official name from Rakhine Tatmadaw to Rakhine Tataw in Burmese, but the name Arakan Army would continue to be used in English.

"Starting from today, there will be only simultaneous attacks in Rakhine. We will not recognize any special days when it comes to fighting," he wrote.

>>Video footage taken by Chit Tant and posted to Facebook shows a Myanmar Air Force fighter jet firing rockets at a suspected AA position in the mountains east of Mrauk-U in northern Rakhine State. / Chit Tant / Facebook

He urged Arakanese living around the world to find their own way to celebrate the 1oth Arakan Army Day and requested that Arakanese express their support on social media by writing the number 10 or wearing clothing bearing the number 10.

The months-long armed conflict in northern Rakhine has resulted in more than 26,000 internally displaced persons, most of them coming from five townships. The majority of IDPs are relying on donations from local relief groups and have been sheltering in neighboring villages and monasteries for months.

The post AA Kills 20 Soldiers in N. Rakhine's Ancient Capital Mrauk-U appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

The Cards are in the Wa Army’s Hands

Posted: 10 Apr 2019 05:33 AM PDT

If you were to ask what a fruitful ceasefire agreement in Myanmar could lead to, the government would point to the Wa Special Region 2, a part of northern Shan State which has seen rapid development under the control of the United Wa State Army (UWSA). But though the region's development may make the central government look good, the large arsenal of modern, sophisticated weaponry which the UWSA holds remains an ever-looming threat for Naypyitaw.

Next Wednesday, the UWSA will celebrate the success of a 30-year ceasefire at Panghsang, the capital of Wa Special Region, with an event which will be attended by key ethnic armed leaders from across the country and to which top representatives of the Myanmar government and military, or Tatmadaw, have been invited. It's likely the government and military representatives will be squirming in their seats during the UWSA's military parade which will make up an important feature at the event.

A pre-event promotional video shared by the UWSA on their official social media page on Saturday, shows a large army with plenty of heavy weaponry, including anti-aircraft weapons. Nyi Rang, the UWSA spokesperson based in Lashio in northern Shan State, told The Irrawaddy that all celebration attendees will be shown a display of the UWSA's different types of weapons during the military parade.

The UWSA signed a ceasefire with the central government in 1989 after splitting from the Burma Communist Party. The Wa region is a good example of an area which has developed more than other ethnic areas under ceasefire conditions. Throughout the 30-years of peace, no bouts of conflict have broken out there and this stands out from other areas ruled by ethnic armed groups where ceasefires have failed time and time again, marring development and bringing only poverty and grief to the locals.

The government's ceasefire with the powerful Kachin Independence Army (KIA) collapsed after 17 years, leading to fighting which forced 100,000 locals to flee their homes. Why, then, has the military resolutely held fire from the UWSA for 30 years?

The UWSA is the largest ethnic armed force in Myanmar, with an estimated headcount of more than 30,000 troops. The UWSA has enough manpower and weapons to shake peace right across northern Shan State if the Myanmar military ever decided to stoke tensions with them. The Myanmar army knows this. The first reason why government troops never attack the UWSA but rather treat them with so much respect is because of their strong army of troops and the large supply of sophisticated weapons at their fingertips.

The UWSA is the one of only two ethnic armed groups to produce arms and they sell them to other ethnic rebel groups which are in conflict with the Myanmar military. Importantly, the group has different types of anti-aircraft weapons, including the FN-6 shoulder-mounted surface-to-air missile launcher. Though they have never revealed where they buy the missiles, they likely buy them from China to defend their territory in the case of an attack by the military's air force. While attacks on rebel groups by Myanmar's air force were uncommon prior to the political reforms rolled out since 2010, their strategies have since changed. Ethnic rebels have never been afraid to confront the military's ground forces, but they have never had a means of defending themselves against attacks from the air.

The military usually launches attacks from the air when their ground troops have suffered high causalities. Last year, for example, the KIA lost 15 bases when the military launched a major offensive in their territory in Kachin State. Only after one month of fighting, when they brought in the air force, did it manage to take the key strategic hill post of Gideon.

The UWSA doesn't sell anti-aircraft weapons to other ethnic armed groups and this is another key reason why the military steers clear of them.

Several sources from different ethnic armed groups said that their rebel groups, including the KIA, have requested to buy anti-aircraft from the UWSA. Those leaders believe that the day they have their anti-aircraft weapons will be the day the Myanmar military loses their power.

In a photo posted on his Facebook page last year, Brig-Gen Nyo Tun Aung, who is the Arakan Army's (AA's) deputy chief-of-staff, was seen with an FN-6 shoulder-mounted surface-to-air missile launcher. Since the photo was posted, many are surprised that the AA hasn't used anti-aircraft weapons and probably doesn't own any either. The UWSA's spokesperson Nyi Rang said that it is his group's policy not to sell anti-aircraft weaponry to other ethnic armed groups, although it is not unusual for them to see the weapons.

The Wa capital, a model city

For almost one year, the UWSA has been carrying out preparations for the 30-year celebration and military parade, including the construction of a high-quality concrete road throughout the region to improve access for event attendees.

In 2015 I visited Panghsang near the China-Myanmar border where the UWSA have their headquarters, and saw the ongoing road construction project. The Wa leaders vowed to me that it would be finished in time for the celebration. Now, Panghsang resembles Chinese towns on the other side of the border.

So how can the UWSA's region manage to be more advanced in development without the help of the central government? The UWSA give security guarantees to Chinese companies wanting to invest there. And as a peaceful region, investors are more keen to set up their businesses in the area.

When fighting escalated in 2017 and 2018 in the KIA-controlled border towns of Laiza and Maijayang, for example, the many Chinese businesses operating there packed up and left.

Money and guns used as a buffer to war

UWSA leaders have expressed concern over the military attacks on other ethnic regions and rebel-controlled areas. They worry that the military will one day come for them, erasing decades of efforts in development. As much as the military knows a war with the UWSA would require major efforts to counteract their huge numbers and sophisticated weaponry, the rebel group too makes every effort to avoid outbreaks of conflict with government troops. These are major reasons for 30 years of peace found in the Wa region.

Though the UWSA has never publicly announced that they provide finance to other ethnic rebel armed groups, the Myanmar government has accused the UWSA of helping Kokang rebels attack Luakai in 2015. Many believe the UWSA also provides finance to the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the AA. When I spoke to TNLA chairperson Tar Aike Phone in 2014, he told me that his organization gets income from six organizations though he refused to reveal who they are.

The UWSA has very close relationships with the most recently formed armed groups, the TNLA, the AA, and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) which is an alliance of armed groups. No one knows what was discussed when they held closed-door meetings with the three groups during a 2015 ethnic summit in Panghsang. Bao Youxiang, the UWSA chairperson has described the Myanmar military as a wild tiger which tries to kill others. He said his organization does not accept their actions and said they should end ongoing conflict with the other ethnic armed groups.

The UWSA leads the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC), a seven-member alliance of ethnic armed groups which acts as a representative body for political negotiations with the central government. The UWSA must be upset by attacks on the AA which is a member of the FPNCC. Perhaps AA leaders, along with those from other rebel groups, are waiting for the day the UWSA decides to start selling modern anti-aircraft weapons to them with a view to taking down the mighty military.

The post The Cards are in the Wa Army's Hands appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Foreign Diplomats, U.N. Officials to Take in Traditional Thingyan in Mandalay

Posted: 10 Apr 2019 04:25 AM PDT

MANDALAY — U.N. officials and foreign diplomats posted in Myanmar are for the first time scheduled to enjoy this year's traditional water festival over four days in Mandalay, the cultural capital of the country.

"Their participation will be a first in the city’s history because the diplomats usually enjoy the festival in Yangon and in Naypyitaw as an official event," said U Kyaw San Myint, who sits on the festival committee of the Mandalay City Development Committee (MCDC).

Whether in Yangon on Naypyitaw, the diplomats would attend the official opening event where Myanmar’s top government officials cut a ribbon and splash each other with water.

"Since we are trying to revive the old Thingyan festival in Mandalay with walking paths and traditional ways of throwing water at each other, we heard that the diplomats wanted to experience it. So the government decided to invite them to Mandalay to participate in the official opening ceremony and stay in the city for the festival," U Kyaw San Myint said.

He said the diplomats and U.N. officials and their families can experience a traditional Thingyan festival near the old palace, where there will be a country-style Thingyan market offering traditional Burmese snacks and dances.

"We are very proud and happy that their visit will somehow promote our Mandalay Thingyan, which we want to be a landmark and a major tourist attraction," U Kyaw San Myint said.

In recent years, Thingyan in Mandalay has featured pavilions with water cannons and DJs. Though they drew many revelers from across the country, they have also been heavily criticized for breaking with tradition, all the more so for doing so in Myanmar’s cultural capital.

To revive the old ways, the MCDC, under the leadership of a new mayor, in 2017 began a traditional walkway along the southern palace wall. The following year the city added a night walk that also featured outdoor screenings of old films.

The post Foreign Diplomats, U.N. Officials to Take in Traditional Thingyan in Mandalay appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Myanmar Military Chief Thanks Beijing for Support on Rakhine Crisis

Posted: 10 Apr 2019 02:58 AM PDT

YANGON — Myanmar military chief Snr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing praised China as an “eternal friend” and thanked it for countering international pressure on Myanmar over the Rohingya crisis during a visit to Beijing.

During a meeting with members of China's Central Military Commission and Joint Staff Department chief Gen. Li Zuocheng on Tuesday, Snr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing said Myanmar regards China as "an eternal friend" and "a strategic partner country," according to a statement from the Office of the Commander-in-Chief.

"Myanmar is thankful of China as a good neighbor for its correct stance and standing against the international community over the Rakhine State issue," he said.

More than 700,000 Rohingya have fled Myanmar to neighboring Bangladesh since August 2017 to escape a military crackdown triggered by coordinated attacks on security posts in Rakhine by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army. The United Nations called the military's actions a "textbook example of ethnic cleansing."

Last year, China voted against the U.N. Human Rights Council's move to establish a body to investigate possible genocide in Myanmar. Chinese State Councilor Wang Yi said the Rohingya issue should not be "complicated," "expanded" or "internationalized" because it was in essence an issue between Myanmar and Bangladesh.

Snr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing is in Beijing at the invitation of Gen. Li Zuocheng for talks with leaders of the Chinese People's Liberation Army and to tour training schools, factories and other sites. The visit comes two weeks ahead of Myanmar State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's trip to China to attend the second Belt and Road forum, which is scheduled to start on April 26.

According to the statement, Gen. Li Zuocheng discussed cooperation between the two countries’ armed forces and between their international liaison departments.

"There is a need to promote cooperation in five areas — medical cooperation, trade promotion with industries, and international cooperation," he said, also adding border security and peace and stability.

The general said any group that hurts bilateral relations would not be tolerated and stressed the need to share security information and strengthen cooperation between their armed forces.

Yangon-based political, ethnic affairs and China analyst U Maung Maung Soe said the Myanmar military chief's trip highlighted both his understanding that China has a key role to play in fostering peace in northern Myanmar and his appreciation for China’s power to veto any moves by the U.N. Security Council to hold Myanmar to account over the Rohingya crisis.

"Due to Western sanctions, the Myanmar army is unavoidably relying on the People’s Liberation Army to build a standard army and for weapons procurement," he said.

"We will see more collaborations between the two armed forces in the future," he added.

Traveling with Snr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing are Lt. Gen. Than Tun Oo, Lt. Gen. Soe Htut and senior military officials from the Office of the Commander-in-Chief. They first travelled to Kunming on Monday and had a meeting with Yunnan Province Communist Party Secretary Chen Hao. That afternoon in Beijing, they were greeted by officials from the Office for International Military Cooperation of the Chinese People's Liberation Army.

The Myanmar military chief also met Song Tao, head of the International Liaison Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. According to the statement, they exchanged views on Myanmar's development, strengthening cooperation between the countries and their armed forces, the Myanmar military’s role in the country’s peace process and China’s development assistance to the country.

This is Snr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing's fifth visit to China since becoming commander-in-chief in 2011.

The post Myanmar Military Chief Thanks Beijing for Support on Rakhine Crisis appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

UWSA Expected to Show Off Enhanced Arsenal at 30th Anniversary Parade

Posted: 10 Apr 2019 02:52 AM PDT

YANGON—Members of Myanmar's largest ethnic armed group, the United Wa State Army (UWSA), are busier than ever preparing celebrations for the group's 30th anniversary on April 17.

The four-day-long event starting April 14 is scheduled to be held in the Wa capital of Panghsang on the Chinese border in northern Shan State. Senior figures from many of Myanmar's other ethnic armed groups are expected to attend, along with China's Special Envoy for Asian Affairs Sun Guoxiang and officials from China's Yunnan province across the border. It is said that Myanmar State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and military chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing have been invited, along with some retired Army chiefs. The media have been welcomed to witness a large-scale military parade to be presided over by Wa supremo Chairman Bao Youxiang.

Founded on April 17, 1989, the UWSA signed a ceasefire with the Myanmar military in May of the same year after splitting from the Communist Party of Burma (CPB). Since then it has quietly grown into the largest, best-equipped ethnic armed group in Myanmar with an estimated 30,000 troops and 10,000 auxiliary members, according to Myanmar Peace Monitor.

The UWSA is expected to flex its military muscles during the parade on April 17 by showing off its arsenal.

According to Asia Times, the UWSA's arsenal includes new batches of basic infantry systems fielded in the CPB era: light and heavy machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades and mortars, and recoilless rifles.

But there are other entirely new systems, author Anthony Davis noted. These include more modern Chinese infantry weapons such as the QBZ-95 assault rifle only adopted in bulk by the People's Liberation Army in the early 2000s. The new QBZ-95 has been acquired to supplement locally produced Wa copies of the Chinese T-81 assault rifle. Modern Chinese CS/LS06 9mm sub-machine guns and M-99 12.7mm anti-materiel rifles also mark new additions to the Wa arsenal.

"At the same time, heavier and more sophisticated Chinese systems also provided a qualitative boost to UWSA capabilities. The FN-6 man-portable air defense system (MANPADS) went to upgrade first-generation Chinese missiles already in the UWSA inventory. The HJ-8 Red Arrow wire-guided anti-tank missiles also constituted a marked improvement on a Wa anti-armor capability that had earlier relied on rocket-propelled grenades and recoilless rifles," the author writes.

On artillery capability, the article says, there are larger jeep-mounted 105mm recoilless guns and additional NORINCO 122mm howitzers and quantities of 107mm surface-to-surface free-flight missiles. The acquisition of new tactical trucks and, more strikingly, China's Xinxing (New Star) wheeled armored personnel carriers (APC) have given a new boost to infantry mobility.

The UWSA held a large celebration for its 20th anniversary in 2009. For this year's celebration, the Wa Army began preparations last year. At its schools and military bases, it has trained local youth to march with various types of weapons including rifles and artillery pieces, according to Nyi Rang, a UWSA spokesperson. He told The Irrawaddy last year that the armed group would use about 500 youths for the military parade and for traditional cultural music and dance performances at the event.

The UWSA has not yet signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). It serves as the chair of the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) alliance, some of whose members are still fighting the Myanmar Army.

The Myanmar government has pressured the UWSA to sign the NCA, but it and other members of the FPNCC want the government to amend some parts of the agreement first.

The post UWSA Expected to Show Off Enhanced Arsenal at 30th Anniversary Parade appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Party Demands KIA Release 3 Lisu Men Held for a Month

Posted: 10 Apr 2019 02:33 AM PDT

YANGON—The Lisu National Development Party (LNDP) has demanded the release of three Lisu villagers from Kachin State's Hpakant Township allegedly arrested by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) a month ago.

The three are residents of Bangkok village in the township's Wara Zut village tract.

Seven KIA soldiers arrested four Lisu men — Phaw Li Hsa, 45; Gwar Tee, 55; Phaw Yaw Si, 22; and Moli Dwet, 17 — on March 11 while the men were gathering herbs, tubers and bulbs in the jungle. They were taken to the KIA's Maji Bum camp, but one of them managed to escape and returned to his home on March 30, according to the LNDP.

The Lisu are a sub-tribe of the Kachin.

The LNDP issued a statement on April 8 demanding the KIA and its political wing the Kachin Independence Organization immediately release the three remaining villagers. The party also requested help from the government, the military and relevant organizations to help secure their release.

U Shwe Min, the chairman of the LNDP, told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday, "The KIA soldiers on the ground do whatever they want to. If they want they can kill anyone. We are concerned about the rise of inter-ethnic conflicts. Therefore, we demand the release of the three."

The escapee said the four men had been threatened, beaten and tortured for 10 days. They were struck with hard bamboo canes and rifle butts, and had bamboo sticks rolled over their shins, guns fired close to their ears and gun barrels placed in their mouths.

Phaw Li Hsa, who managed to escape the rebel camp, survived for eight days in the jungle but arrived home with serious wounds. He is now receiving treatment at the military hospital in Myitkyian, the LNDP said.

The Irrawaddy tried to contact KIA spokesman Colonel Naw Bu for comment but was unable to reach him. However, he told Radio Free Asia's Burmese service on April 4 that the KIA did not arrest the Lisu villagers.

But U Shwe Min insisted that, "It is certain that the KIA arrested them. We have one person who escaped from their custody; we also have photo evidence and were able to confirm that it was at their camp in Maji Bum where these people were detained. But as [the three other men] have not been released, we are worried they may have been killed."

The party said all four men are civilians.

The party sent letters asking for help from the President; State Counselor; Army chief; minister of home affairs; minister of defense; minister of security and border affairs; the Parliament speakers; the military's No. 1 Bureau of Special Operations' Lieutenant-General Tun Tun Naung; Northern Command chief Major General Tayza Kyaw; the Kachin State chief minister and the Kachin state minister of security and border affairs.

U Phaw Li Hsa receives medical treatment after escaping detention by the KIA. / LNDP / Facebook

Moreover, the party sent letters to the KIO chairman and the KIA commander-in-chief, the Kachin Peacetalk Creation Group (PCG), Myanmar National Human Rights Commission and international embassies seeking help with the men's release.

Lamai Gum Ja, the PCG spokesman, told The Irrawaddy that, "We have raised the issue with the KIO central [committee] and they are investigating what happened at the ground level, but we don't know the details yet."

In a statement, the LNDP condemned the KIA/KIO for its actions, which it said included torture, forced recruitment, extorting money, collecting money by threatening, showing hatred toward the Lisu ethnic minority and planting landmines.

"The amount of money extorted is a lot. They arrest people and release those who can pay. If not, these people are forced to receive training to become soldiers. Ethnic Lisu are always suppressed. This act is surely an attack against us. We want the KIO [senior] leaders to monitor the actions of its people on the ground," it said.

In May 2017, more than 2,000 Lisu staged a protest in Myitkyina accusing the KIA of committing human rights violations against them including arrest, killing, extortion and rape.

The post Party Demands KIA Release 3 Lisu Men Held for a Month appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

When Myanmar Said No to Diarchy, Yes to Home Rule

Posted: 10 Apr 2019 12:14 AM PDT

Ninety-seven years ago today, a committee led by the president of the Central Legislative Assembly of British India, Sir Alexander Frederick Whyte, released a report in favor of exercising diarchy in Myanmar, despite the fact that as many as 90 percent of citizens opposed the system of dual governments.

Though elected lawmakers in Myanmar would share partial administrative power with the colonial government under the system, most in Myanmar wanted home rule and separation from India.

In 1921 the committee visited several of Myanmar’s major cities including Yangon, Mandalay, Mawlamyine and Pathein to survey the public on its opinions about diarchy. But many refused to even speak to the surveyors and showed their opposition by banging on metal buckets with sticks. Politicians and newspapers also urged the people not to speak to the surveyors.

The post When Myanmar Said No to Diarchy, Yes to Home Rule appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

India’s Modi Rides Nationalist Fervor to Keep Edge in Election that Begins Thursday

Posted: 09 Apr 2019 09:36 PM PDT

NEW DELHI—Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is rallying his nationalist base ahead of the world’s biggest election, which starts on Thursday, but has become tighter than anticipated just months ago, because of falling incomes for farmers and a lack of jobs.

Polls predict Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance will just about squeeze out the parliamentary majority needed to rule, a sharp drop from his commanding mandate five years ago, when he vowed to turn India into an economic and military power.

But his government’s inability to create a million jobs every month for new entrants to the workforce, and ease farmers’ distress over low product prices, has taken the shine off what is still the world’s fastest growing major economy.

From sugar farmers in northern Uttar Pradesh going unpaid for their produce to small businesses in the south shuttered because a new, unifying national tax is too challenging to comply with, discontent has brewed for months, pollsters say.

In December, alarm bells clanged within Modi’s Hindu nationalist fold after he lost three big battleground states in a final test of popularity to the main opposition Congress and its allies, led by Rahul Gandhi.

But a surge in tension with traditional foe Pakistan in February has pushed Modi ahead, as he plays up his image as a defender of national security and paints his rivals as weak-kneed, even questioning their patriotism at times.

“People were very unhappy, angry that Modi makes tall promises and doesn’t deliver,” said Shiv Chandra Rai, an Uber driver in the commercial capital of Mumbai, who said his unemployed brothers faced difficulties making ends meet in their home village in Uttar Pradesh.

“Everyone said there are no jobs, everywhere farmers are struggling. But on this issue of Pakistan we are confused now. Some people feel we have to vote for Modi on this issue, it is a national problem.”

Modi ordered air strikes on a suspected camp of militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad in Pakistan after it claimed responsibility for a deadly car bombing in Indian Kashmir, in the first such raid since the neighbors' last war in 1971.

Pakistan sent warplanes into India the next day and the two engaged in a dogfight. Later, both nuclear-armed foes threatened each other with missile strikes, before Western powers, led by the United States, pulled them back.

But Modi claimed victory, vowing more similar action if militant attacks continue in Kashmir. He attacked critics for questioning the efficacy of the strikes and the risks of raising tension with Pakistan.

“Why do these people get so disturbed when India acts strongly against the forces of terror?” he asked at a rally this week in western India, referring to opposition leaders.

“Is their hatred for Modi so great they can’t even unite when it comes to national security?” he said to tens of thousands of cheering supporters wearing saffron headbands.

The Congress, led by Gandhi, and his charismatic sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra who took up a party post in January, is trying to steer the campaign back to Modi’s broken promises on the economy.

Gandhi has pledged a monthly payment of 6,000 rupees (US$87) to India’s poorest families, benefiting 250 million of a population of 1.3 billion, in what he called a final assault on poverty.

“The BJP's campaign is largely around nationalism, national security and this is echoed in their manifesto,” said Sanjay Kumar, director of think tank the Center for the Study of Developing Societies in New Delhi.

“Congress is trying to pitch in the election with regard to farm distress, rural crisis, unemployment.”

Nearly 900 million people are eligible to vote in an election spread over seven phases into next month to allow security forces and officials to ensure a free and fair ballot.

Voters will travel by buses, trains, boats to about a million polling stations. Votes will be counted on May 23 and results are expected the same day.

Gandhi, as Congress leader, had attempted to forge a grand alliance with a clutch of powerful regional parties fighting the elections, so as to avoid the splintering of votes.

But the unwillingness of other Congress officials to give in to the demands of the smaller parties and the vaulting ambition of key regional figures frustrated his efforts.

Still the Congress said Modi represented a threat to every opposition group by pursuing its vision of a Hindu-first India, stoking fear among its Muslim minority. The BJP denies such bias.

Modi’s tactics were borrowed from the playbook of U.S. President Donald Trump, said Sam Pitroda, an adviser to Gandhi.

“The strategy was, there is [an] enemy at the border, in that case it was Mexican, and enemy, also, as people in the country, immigrants. Very similar, Modi says there is an enemy at the border…Anything you say, immediately everyone attacks you.”

The post India’s Modi Rides Nationalist Fervor to Keep Edge in Election that Begins Thursday appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Wreckage Confirmed to be From Crashed Japanese F-35 Fighter

Posted: 09 Apr 2019 09:19 PM PDT

TOKYO — Search and rescue teams found wreckage belonging to a Japanese Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth fighter that disappeared on Tuesday over the Pacific Ocean close to northern Japan, a military spokesman said on Wednesday.

“We recovered the wreckage and determined it was from the F-35,” a spokesman for the Air Self Defense Force (ASDF) said, adding that the pilot of the aircraft was still missing.

The advanced, single-seat jet was flying about 135 km (84 miles) east of the Misawa air base in Aomori Prefecture at about 7:27 p.m. on Tuesday, when it disappeared from radar, the ASDF said.

The aircraft was less than a year old and was delivered to the ASDF in May last year, the spokesman said. Japan’s first squadron of F-35s has just become operational at Misawa and the government plans to buy 87 of the stealth fighters to modernize its air defenses as China’s military power grows.

The crash marks only the second time an F-35 has gone down since the plane began flying almost two decades ago. It was also the first crash of an A version of the fifth-generation fighter, which is designed to penetrate enemy defenses by evading radar detection.

Lockheed Martin, which manufactures the aircraft, said it was standing by to support the ASDF as needed. The Pentagon said it was monitoring the situation.

A U.S. military short take off and vertical landing (STOVL) F-35B crashed near the Marine Corps Air Station Beaufort in South Carolina in September, prompting a temporary grounding of the aircraft. Lockheed Martin also makes a C version of the fighter designed to operate off carriers.

Japan’s new F-35s will include 18 STOVL B variants that planners want to deploy on its islands along the edge of the East China Sea.

The F-35s are shipped to Japan by Lockheed Martin and assembled by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd at a plant near Nagoya in central Japan. Each costs around $100 million, slightly more than the cost of buying a fully assembled plane.

A representative for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries said the company had no immediate comment.

The post Wreckage Confirmed to be From Crashed Japanese F-35 Fighter appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Dalai Lama, 83, Hospitalized with Chest Infection

Posted: 09 Apr 2019 09:10 PM PDT

MUMBAI—Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama was admitted to a New Delhi hospital on Tuesday with chest infection, an aide said, adding that the 83-year-old Buddhist monk was stable.

The Dalai Lama, who fled to India in early 1959 after a failed uprising against Chinese rule, lives in exile in the northern Indian hill town of Dharamshala.

“Today morning his holiness felt some discomfort and he was flown to Delhi for check-up,” Tenzin Taklha, his personal secretary, told Reuters.

“Doctors have diagnosed him with chest infection and he is being treated for that. His condition is stable now. He will be treated for two [or] three days here.”

Many of the up to 100,000 Tibetans living in India are worried that their fight for a genuinely autonomous homeland would end with the Dalai Lama.

He told Reuters last month that it was possible that once he dies his incarnation could be found in India, and warned that any other successor named by China would not be respected.

China, which took control of Tibet in 1950, brands the Nobel peace laureate a dangerous separatist and has said its leaders have the right to approve the Dalai Lama’s successor, as a legacy inherited from China’s emperors.

But many Tibetans — whose tradition holds that the soul of a senior Buddhist monk is reincarnated in the body of a child on his death — suspect any Chinese role as a ploy to exert influence on the community.

The post Dalai Lama, 83, Hospitalized with Chest Infection appeared first on The Irrawaddy.
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