According to the Union Election Commission (UEC) elections' outcome announcement, starting on the 9 November, coming out intermittently, which should take for about a week or so, the likelihood of the National League for Democracy (NLD) winning with a landslide is an accepted, foregone conclusion.
On 10 November late evening, 285 candidates winner-list for the three parliaments – State/Region, Pyithu Hluttaw (Lower House) and Amyotha Hluttaw (Upper House) – was announced, where NLD won 249 and other parties 36 seats.
Reportedly, according to UEC, the media centres will announce election results at 9 am, 12 noon, 3 pm, 6 pm, 9 pm and 11 pm everyday, provided new information is sent from region and state election sub-commissions to the UEC.
Understandably frustrated by the slow announcement of the UEC, the NLD has made public its own tally on election figures, where it said that it has passed the mark of absolute majority.
According to AP report on 10 November, the NLD has accused the government's UEC of intentionally delaying results, saying it wants to "maybe play a trick."
The NLD's surprising accusation added a worrying twist to what had been an amicable election, with the ruling party appearing to be taking its expected loss gracefully after the Sunday vote.
"The Union Election Commission has been delaying intentionally because maybe they want to play a trick or something," NLD spokesman Win Htein told reporters at Suu Kyi's house after a party meeting. "It doesn't make sense that they are releasing the results piece by piece. It shouldn't be like that," he said.
The NLD's election campaign team said that the party has won at least 380 seats across both houses of Parliament, which would represent a majority of total Union Parliament seats. The military allotted seats in both houses are 166.
As the election could not be held in seven townships, there are now only 433 seats in the Lower House which, when combined with 224 Upper House seats, totals 657 seats in the bicameral parliament. Therefore, to form government, the key number is 329 seats.
Thus with the absolute majority in the pocket, during the early 2016, the NLD will be able to select two presidential candidates, against one proposed by the unelected, military representatives, who occupy 25% of the parliamentary seats.
It is quite clear that the NLD will be able to have one of its presidential candidates occupying the country's top position, with far-reaching responsibilities of:
• Appointing Union Ministers including the Chief Ministers of the States and Divisions;
• Granting pardons and granting amnesty based on the recommendations of the 11 person National Defence and Security Council (NDSC);
• Appointing diplomats;
• Establishing relations with foreign countries;
• Entering into international treaties subject to the consent of the National Parliament;
• Calling special sessions of parliament;
• Issuing laws between sessions of parliament;
• Taking military action in coordination with the NDSC; and
• Declaring war with the approval of the National Parliament.
The political sequence normally should likely move along further as planned, if no untoward circumstance befall the country, during the transitional period from Thein Sein to Aung San Suu Kyi's era.
SNLD and ANP
While the NLD is sweeping all the seats in all three parliaments country-wide, the two ethnic parties, the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) and Arakan National Party (ANP) are said to be doing well in their home states of Shan and Arakan.
The NLD seems to win in Chin, Karenni (Kayah) and Mon States, while Karen and Kachin States are undecided, as of this writing.
The Mizzima, on 10 November, reported that SNLD spokesman Sai Leik said that within Shan State that his party is leading with the most vote and have won 25 seats in State Parliament, 12 Pyithu Hlluttaw (Lower House) and 3 seats in Amyotha Hluttaw (Upper House) and still waiting for more results from Kachin State and Mandalay Division (Region) to come in.
In an interview with VOA, on the same day, Sai Leik said: "From the start of the elections, we consider Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) to be our main competitor. If you look at the winners now, in Shan State after the SNLD, the NLD is leading. But if you look at the acquired votes, SNLD is the top-runner. White Tiger (SNDP) captures only one seat, so far."
Reconciliation gesture
On the eve of the landslide victory, Soe Win Oo, the deputy chairman of the NLD's Rangoon election campaign team said: "We will cooperate with the military and ethnic parties. If the NLD wins the presidential position, we can form a government."
Guarded, but a bit stern and contrary to her deputy chairman, Aung San Suu Kyi, when she was asked by BBC Radio on 10 November, if her party, once in power, would prosecute former military leaders for human rights abuses, answered: "I have said that we are not going in for vengeance, and we're not going in for a series of Nurembergs or anything like that. But people must change their ways, it doesn't mean that we'll simply let people get away what they have been doing for the last 50 years."
Even then, news are making the rounds that unofficial talks are already underway between senior NLD officials and military and ruling party figures about the complicated political negotiations in coming months before the next parliament is seated next year.
Whatever the case, "peace and national reconciliation" have always been the dominant catchword for this deeply divided society, which as all the successive military-dominated government predecessors, including the quasi-civilian regime of Thein Sein, have tried in vain, without success, to come to grips. And this would be the core issues that the NLD would have to attend to.
Political pundits have time and again suggested that some sort of round table talks among the regime, military, political parties and ethnic nationalities should be the way to go. But half-hearted and pre-conceived ideas to uphold political power monopolization and group survival mentality have derailed any such meetings and proved to be just an ad hoc undertakings, without real substance, commitment or political will to strive for genuine peace and national reconciliation.
But this time around, the people of Burma has given her the mandate to fulfil the aspirations of genuine peace, human rights, self-determination and above all a genuine federalism that have been denied all these years. Of course, it is a tall order. But people are confident that she will be able to deliver and pave the way leading to the realization of those dreams.
It is important at this juncture to shed light on the father of Aung San Suu Kyi, General Aung San's seven guiding principles, in the aftermath of Panglong Agreement and on the eve of Union of Burma constitutional drafting in 1947.
The seven guiding principles, interpreting the Panglong Agreement, to adhere to in formulating the Union of Burma Constitution are:
- It must be the constitution of the Union of Burma vested with freedom and sovereignty;
- All individual states must be vested with self-administrative power;
- The Union of Burma, all states and government organizations must accept (the notion) that political power derives from the people;
- All citizens are equal socially, economically, politically and so long as the public order is not violated, freedom of thinking, speech, belief, religion, livelihood and organization must be guaranteed in the constitution;
- The constitution must adequately guarantee the rights of the minorities;
- Guard and protect the country's perpetuation and sovereignty; and
- Strive for human development, prosperity and world peace together with the international community. (Source: General Aung San's seven principle guideline – 1947)
Constitutional crisis
Since 1962, after the military coup led by General Ne Win, Burma has been burdened with the constitutional crisis up to these days.
The 1974 Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP) and the military-drafted 2008 constitutions are also unitary in nature and don't cater to the federal form of government, in a real sense, while the 1948 Union of Burma Constitution, although federal in form is also unitary in practice. To make it short, in order to make the constitution more federal, the ethnic nationalities, spear-headed by the then Shan Government, in 1962, made a "Federal Proposal", citing Panglong Agreement and promises, which was signed by General Aung San representing Burma Proper (Ministerial Burma) in 1947.
Thus, when the ethnic nationalities said genuine federalism, they meant to say the amendment of the 1948 Union of Burma Constitution, together with the integration of 1962 "Federal Proposal". In other words, the ethnic nationalities' aspired federalism is rooted in 1948 Constitution, 1947 Panglong Agreement and 1962 Federal Proposal, perhaps with some innovation to be in tune with the modern time.
Many uninformed foreign experts and international NGOs tend to downplay the federalism knowledge and awareness of the ethnic nationalities by saying that they have no idea of what it is really all about. While it could be partly true that the new generation of activists and politicians might have not thoroughly read or studied the issue, due to the military's prohibition to even talk about it for decades, the old-hand, ethnic politicians definitely know what it is and what kind of federalism they are striving for.
In a nutshell, the Federal Proposal called for a separate Bamar state to be in line with equality with the other ethnic states, plus equitable power and resources sharing.
The people's loud and clear amendment demand of the 2008 constitution and an attempt by the parliamentarians during the present Thein Sein's regime, within the parliament, are stark reminders that the constitutional crisis is very much alive and present, which have started since 1962.
Task for the incoming regime
While the priority of the incoming NLD regime is to either amend the military-drafted constitution or completely rewrite it, so that the aspirations of all the ethnic nationalities, Bamar included, could be realized, the immediate task is to end the institutionalized war in ethnic homelands and foster reconciliation. And the best place to start is to declare a unilateral ceasefire by the government and call for a genuine peace dialogue.
In "Brainy Quote: Aung San Suu Kyi Quotes", she rightly pointed out: " Once serious political dialogue has begun, the international community can assume that we have achieved genuine progress along the road to real democratisation."
Her position regarding the definition to peace reads: " My attitude to peace is rather based on the Burmese definition of peace - it really means removing all the negative factors that destroy peace in this world. So peace does not mean just putting an end to violence or to war, but to all other factors that threaten peace, such as discrimination, such as inequality, poverty."
Her take on the military writes: "I don't want to see the military falling. I want to see the military rising to dignified heights of professionalism and true patriotism.
Despite being armed with all such wisdom, immediate political woes keep knocking at the door, disguised as isolated armed conflict against, with the pretext of protecting sovereignty and national unity from the part of the military, when in fact, political solution is the only way out.
Meanwhile, as people across the country are rejoicing and having a sweet revenge for decades of military heavy-handedness and repression by voting and letting the NLD to win with a landslide – a foregone conclusion that needs only to be confirmed by the UEC -, a rude awakening has disturbed the public euphoria caused by the ariel bombings and ground attacks on the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) positions, around its headquarters, by the Burma Army, just two days after the election.
No doubt, the Lady will need all the help she could muster to overcome all the woes surrounding the country and the people are confident that she could do it, and it is this that counts.
The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU)- Editor
