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Saturday, March 12, 2016

The Irrawaddy Magazine

Remembering Win Tin Amid Burma’s Democratic Ascendance
The Irrawaddy Business Roundup (March 12, 2016)
Dateline Irrawaddy: ‘We Desperately Need an Ethnic Affairs Ministry’

Remembering Win Tin Amid Burma’s Democratic Ascendance

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 10:28 PM PST

RANGOON — If he were still alive, Win Tin would have turned 86 on Saturday. The former journalist, who died in 2014 at the age of 84, was a cofounder of the National League for Democracy (NLD), along with party chairwoman Aung San Suu Kyi, and was also highly respected for his relentless activism against Burma's former military regime.

Win Tin was one of Burma's longest serving political prisoners. Starting in 1989, he spent almost two decades behind bars for cofounding the NLD and later for attempting to inform the United Nations about human rights violations in the country's prisons. When he was finally released, he was 78 years old.

Despite his criticism of Suu Kyi in recent years for her rapprochement with the military, which he deemed too conciliatory, his loyalty to Suu Kyi and the NLD was unshakeable. As the NLD readies to take the reins of government in just a few weeks' time, there is little doubt that were he alive to see the day, the longtime people-power advocate would agree, at the very least, that it's been a long time coming for Burma's pro-democracy movement.

The post Remembering Win Tin Amid Burma's Democratic Ascendance appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

The Irrawaddy Business Roundup (March 12, 2016)

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 07:13 PM PST

An employee of Ajinomoto checks packaging boxes of its Hon-Dashi, or bonito base seasoning, before packing into carton boxes at the company's Kawasaki factory in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan, on June 29, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

Dramatic Redevelopment of Rangoon Railway Station Moves Forward

The state agency Myanma Railways wants to push rapidly ahead with an ambitious plan to redevelop Rangoon's Central Railway Station, state media reports.

The Global New Light of Myanmar on Wednesday reported an announcement from Myanma Railways saying it had received expressions of interest from more than a dozen companies, including two joint ventures with American investors, in a tender to develop the station.

The agency's general manager for Lower Burma, Tun Aung Thin, was cited saying that the winners of the tender would be selected in May this year. The project will "launch" in May 2017, the report said.

"Fifteen companies including five from Myanmar, two from Singapore, two joint-venture companies with the US, two from Korea and three from China sent Expression of Interest [EoI] for the project when MR invited the tender for the second time in July last year," the report said.

Myanma Railways wants total investment in the railway station in the city's downtown, to reach more than $2 billion, presumably coming from the tender winner.

An illustration published with the report showed two tall towers, and five shorter blocks, sticking out of a new station in the spot where the existing rail yard sits. Perhaps ominously for defenders of Rangoon's skyline and architectural heritage, the state newspaper also cited "sources" saying that the area of the station set to be developed does not fall within areas authorities have set aside for building height restrictions.

It also suggested that locals might be moved from their homes to make way for the development. "So far, the Resettlement Action Plan and the Conceptual Plan for the project have already been drawn, according to MR sources," the report said.

Environmental Campaign Group Reports Break in Logging Trade

The trade of logs across northern Burma's border with China has fallen dramatically, according to a group that exposed military and ethnic armed groups' involvement in the timber business. But the London-based Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) warned that previous lulls in the unauthorized exports of timber had proven temporary.

The government has long banned the export of logs across the border, and timber could only be taken out of Burma legitimately through Rangoon's port. But the trade went on illegally, and at an unsustainable pace, with the vast profits escaping state taxation. A total ban on the export of unprocessed logs was imposed in April 2014, but still wood worth an estimated almost half a billion dollars was exported in that year, according to the EIA's September 2015 report, Organized Chaos.

In an update this week, EIA said it had recorded "a sharp downturn in the volume of illegal timber being smuggled between the two countries during the past six months." That came after the publication of the previous report, and the high-profile case of 155 Chinese nationals arrested by the Burma Army for logging, who were ultimately released in an amnesty after pressure from the Chinese government.

"Field observations by EIA since the report launch indicate that the flow of timber across the border has fallen dramatically," the update said. "One year ago, EIA documented long lines of trucks queuing to carry valuable logs across the border. This year only small amounts of precious woods are being smuggled via backroads on motorbikes or passenger vehicles."

The group said a Chinese government crackdown could have caused the hiatus. But it may simply be due to an oversupply in luxury timber like rosewood, the price of which has dropped recently. The demand side may also have been impacted by a recent downturn in the Chinese economy and a broad government crackdown there on official corruption, the proceeds of which are often spent on high-value items like hardwood furniture.

However, EIA warned, "previous reductions in timber flows have proved temporary."

"Without formal measures to permanently halt timber trade across the border it could quickly resume once the log piles on the Chinese side of the border dwindle and timber prices rise again due to scarcity," the group said. "One Chinese timber businessman, based in Pianma, has told the media he expected the local government to lift controls on timber imports in March."

Thai Lion Air Plans to Add to Rangoon-Bangkok Flights

Thai-Indonesian airline Thai Lion Air is planning to add flights between Rangoon International Airport and Bangkok's Don Mueang next month, according to a report from the CAPA Centre for Aviation.

In an analysis of the low-cost carrier's plans around the region, citing Thai Lion managing director Capt.Darsito Hendroseputro, the aviation intelligence service said flights would begin in April.

Competition on the route is already intense, with budget airlines Nok Air, Bangkok Airways and Thai AirAsia all connecting Rangoon with the Thai capital city. Burmese domestic carriers Myanmar National Airlines and Myanmar Airways International also both offer flights from Rangoon to Bangkok.

CAPA Centre for Aviation analysis of Burmese government data shows that Thai AirAsia's flights are on average only 73 percent full.

"However Bangkok-Yangon is a large and growing route, particularly at the budget end," the report said. "Thai Lion may be strategically compelled to serve Myanmar as it strives to become a significant player in Thailand's international market."

Thai Lion Air is an associate company of Indonesia's Lion Air, but has Thai ownership.

German Retail Giant Weighing Burma Move: Report

German company Metro, which runs large-scale cash and carry stores, is considering expanding into Burma, according to comments from the company's CEO picked up by Agence France-Presse (AFP).

The newswire said Metro chief executive Olaf Koch was interviewed by German weekly magazine Wirtschafts Woche about the firm's plans, which include looking at Burma as well as Iran.

AFP said Metro was preparing to expand its international cash and carry business, which already operates in 30 countries in Europe and Asia.

"Myanmar is benefitting from opening up politically and has high growth potential," Koch was quoted saying. "We'll decide by the end of the year which way our journey is headed."

MSG-Maker Ajinomoto Plans to Relaunch Burma Production

Japanese seasoning producer Ajinomoto is reportedly set to invest $10.6 million in Burma and open a new factory in the country, after previously ceasing its operations in the country in 2000.

The Tokyo-based company was the first to sell the compound aji no moto ("essence of taste," in Japanese), which is better known as MSG, or monosodium glutamate.

According to a report from Japanese media outlet Nikkei, Ajinomoto wants to relaunch in the country next year in hopes of tapping into rising consumer demand. The firm has already set up a new local company, and plans to open a 5,000-square-meter factory in the Japanese-backed Thilawa Special Economic Zone (SEZ) just outside of Rangoon.

"The plant will import monosodium glutamate, or MSG, from Thailand and package it for the Myanmar market," the report said.

"The operation is expected to start with 100 or so personnel, including salespeople. The Aji-no-moto seasoning will be sold in just Yangon and Mandalay initially. After expanding sales nationwide, the company aims to generate 3 billion yen ($26 million) in annual sales by fiscal 2020."

The post The Irrawaddy Business Roundup (March 12, 2016) appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Dateline Irrawaddy: ‘We Desperately Need an Ethnic Affairs Ministry’

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 06:27 PM PST

On this week's panel, The Irrawaddy's English edition editor Kyaw Zwa Moe speaks with ethnic affairs minister No Than Kap and Khin Zaw Win of the Tampadipa Institute.

Kyaw Zwa Moe: Welcome to Dateline Irrawaddy. This week, we'll discuss how the National League for Democracy [NLD], which won the November election, is forming the parliamentary affairs committees; how parliamentary speakers are elected; and how the NLD will form the cabinet based on its ethnic affairs policies. The chairman of the Chin Progressive Party and Chin ethnic affairs minister for Sagaing Division, U No Than Kap, and the director of Tampadipa Institute, Dr. Khin Zaw Win, will join the discussion. I'm Irrawaddy English editor Kyaw Zwa Moe.

U No Than Kap, over the past three or four months, we've seen the NLD's ethnic policies. The NLD's election declaration or, in other words, its manifesto, declares publicly that its top priorities are ethnic affairs and internal peace. What is the NLD-dominated parliament's policy on ethnic groups? What is your assessment of it?

No Than Kap: I prefer to use the word 'ethnic minorities.' We were very glad to see the speaker of the Union Parliament sitting at his seat in the traditional Karen attire. Ethnic people have been given other positions aside from the Upper House speaker position, as well. We are satisfied that the NLD also included many members of other political and ethnic parties in parliamentary committees instead of high-handedly forming those committees with their members alone. If this trend continues, it would mean they are making good on their word to build national unity.

KZM: What differences did you see in the outgoing U Thein Sein government regarding these issues?

NHK: As everyone has seen, there were no ethnic speakers or deputy speakers at the Union level [under the USDP government]. There were only one or two ethnic lawmakers in the parliamentary affairs committees. Compared to the situation now, to be frank, the situation in the past was not reassuring. This is, however, just the assessment from the ethnic point of view.

If the NLD continues as they have when forming the cabinet, this would mean taking practical steps toward national unity. We are not interested in what they say, but are only interested in what they do. Mainly, we want to achieve self-determination. But currently at the Union level, ethnicities like Chin or Karen do not enjoy equality with Burmans, even if they have the same capacity. We'll be satisfied if ethnicities can work on equal terms with Burmans, for example, in legislation. We don't know yet how the new government will be formed, but if it is formed like the parliamentary committees were formed, half of the work toward building national unity will be done, I think.

KZM: U Khin Zaw Win, the list of presidential nominees will be submitted to the Parliament within a few days, and the NLD will form the government. There are 36 ministries at the time of the outgoing government and the NLD has said it would cut the number to 20 or 21. What should the ratio be if the NLD is going to form a government that considers ethnic minorities or, in other words, a government of national reconciliation? The NLD has continuously said it would form a government of national reconciliation. U Win Htein of the NLD recently said that the NLD would only take 30 or 40 percent of the cabinet positions. So what do you think is the appropriate ratio?

Khin Zaw Win: Just after the election, I said that the NLD had won by a landslide, but difficulties and challenges facing the country are gigantic, and therefore it needs to form an inclusive government. I said this three or four months ago. The NLD had the same thought. So, the question is how large a proportion of ethnic minorities the NLD will include in the government.

Taking a look at the outgoing Parliament, setting aside the Parliament, there are hardly any ethnic people in the government. The outgoing government appointed four or five women to the cabinet. But, as far as I know, the deputy hotels and tourism minister is the only ethnic person appointed by them. They did not appoint ethnic people. But things are quite different now. I hope the cabinet will be formed as we expect. If the NLD will only take 30 to 40 percent of the government positions, I hope ethnicities will be included. It would contribute a lot to rebuilding a situation that has been bad since 1962.

KZM: Now, speculation is rife as to who will become the president. There have been wild guesses. But there is interesting talk that an ethnic person will be offered the vice presidency. U Sai Mauk Kham was appointed vice president in the outgoing U Thein Sein government. So, there is speculation if a Shan or Chin may be a vice president this time. Will the NLD make a different move than the previous government in selecting presidential nominees?

NHK: In the outgoing government, one of the vice presidents is an ethnic Shan. But he is from the Union Solidarity and Development Party [USDP]. In the US, [the president] chooses capable people for the cabinet even if they are from different parties and have different views. In my view, if the NLD appoints an ethnic person, it should choose a capable person, but not someone from its [alliance] parties.

KZM: What particular policies should the NLD government adopt toward ethnic groups? Suppose the NLD reduces the number of ministries to 20: Which ministries are more appropriate for ethnic people or is an Ethnic Affairs Ministry needed to be established for ethnic groups in order to obtain self-determination?

NHK: The Constitution provides provisions about national unity. But according to my experience, we have a lot of difficulty handling ethnic issues because there is neither a Union-level Ethnic Affairs Ministry nor an ethnic affairs minister.

Yes, some ministers have accountability. But sometimes, ethnic issues arise that need to be dealt with at the Union level—for example social, literature and other issues. You may say we can talk directly to the president, but he is quite busy and we need to contact him through the President's Office Minister U Hla Tun. But in reality, everyone knows that it is quite difficult. It is not convenient.

So, to build national unity, a Union Ethnic Affairs Ministry should be established and an ethnic affairs minister should be appointed from capable ethnic people if possible. It would mean effectively implementing the manifesto of the NLD. In my view, we desperately need an Ethnic Affairs Ministry.

KZM: There are division/state governments apart from the Union government. What measures should the NLD take in ethnic regions like Chin State, where there will be nine ministries? What do you think?

KZW: That issue is even more delicate. Anyway, we are heading toward federalism now. When I meet my ethnic friends, I tell them that it is not enough to focus on the relationship between the mainland and the highlands. There are various ethnicities in their region, and they need to work in cooperation with them. Sometimes, this fact seems to be neglected. Chin people constitute the largest majority of the population in Chin State. But there are many ethnicities in Kachin and Shan states. So, to exercise federalism, ethnic leaders should also be included in the nine-member cabinet. Not only personalities from political parties; ethnic leaders should also be included.

KZM: Recently, rumors went around that NLD leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the military leadership had negotiated the appointment of 14 division/state chief minister positions. And the latest talk was that the NLD would appoint only its own party members to chief minister positions. Constitutionally, does the president have a mandate to appoint chief ministers. What is your view about the chief ministers being appointed by the NLD and nine minister positions of the state? Will there be problems?

NHK: As far as I am concerned, I don't think there is strong partisanship in states. The NLD has the mandate as it has won the election, and the president will be elected from the NLD. So, the question is whether the person appointed by the NLD as the chief minister is a reliable person. The NLD is working in conformity with the Constitution now. We can't say what the NLD is doing is illegitimate until the NLD's president intervenes in the process of appointing chief ministers after the Constitution is changed for parliaments to elect the chief ministers of their own regions. At present, what the NLD is doing is legal. Whether or not the NLD's appointment creates a problem will depend on whom they appoint. If he is capable, there will not be a big problem. The most important thing is that we have a capable person as the chief minister in our state.

KZM: [Issue] No. 3 of the NLD's manifesto says it will work toward ensuring liberty, equity, self-determination and a complete and genuine federal democratic Union. What clear policies will the NLD need to establish a federal democratic Union?

KZW: The top one is about finance. A sufficient budget must be allotted to bring about proper development in a state. Currently, the central government grants a budget, but later it should be considered depending on the request of the state government. Again, there should not be discrimination on the grounds of race in appointing government staff. I want to stress the importance of that; it is particularly more important that there is [existing] discrimination in the military. There should not be discrimination on the grounds of race in the military against officers or rankers. It is important. Again, most of the states lag behind and priority should be given to the education and health sectors there.

KZM: Here, resource-sharing is critically important.

KZW: Yes, that is also extremely important.

KZM: Again, I am afraid that the new next government will not be able to exert much influence on the military.

KZW: It needs to be done step by step.

KZM: U No Htan, can you share your point of view as a Chin ethnic person and leader of the current trends on behalf of the majority of ethnic minorities?

NHK: In my view, 'federal Union' is just about terminology. In my view, 'federal' and 'Union' are the same. I mean, if a country is a Union, it is already a federal Union. If it is a single Union, it is a unitary. This is about terminology. Let it be. We want the right to self-determination and I think that only the state parliament should have the mandate to appoint the top position of the state—chief minister. At present, Article 261 is still not amended and we can't oppose it when what the NLD is doing conforms to the Constitution. However, that article should be amended as soon as possible. It is part of a genuine federal Union. If the NLD keeps on doing what it is they are already doing, there will no longer be ethnic armed groups.

KZM: We have to wait and watch the actions of the NLD to see how much it will consider different ethnic groups when adopting its policies. Thank you for your contribution.

Editor's Note: This edition of Dateline Irrawaddy was taped on March 8, ahead of the NLD's selection of vice presidential nominees on Thursday.

The post Dateline Irrawaddy: 'We Desperately Need an Ethnic Affairs Ministry' appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Friday, March 11, 2016

The Irrawaddy Magazine

Ranks of Burma’s PR Holders Modest but Growing
Military VP Revealed As Executive Trio Finalized
The Lady’s Man
Over 500 IDPs Flee Latest Shan State Hostilities
Myitsone: The Incoming NLD Govt’s First Big Test
Who Will Be The Next To Take Burma’s Top Job?

Ranks of Burma’s PR Holders Modest but Growing

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 10:24 AM PST

Airline passengers queue at the immigration checkpoint of Rangoon International Airport in 2013. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — Burma's Ministry of Immigration and Population has issued more than 170 permanent residency (PR) certificates to successful applicants while nearly 100 additional applications are still being processed, according to an official from the ministry.

"We have released a total of 171 certificates and are now arranging to release more for the approved applications," deputy director Min Zaw from the permanent residency section of the ministry told The Irrawaddy on Friday.

"I still can't tell the exact number of successful applications for the last intake," he added.

The scheme was launched in late 2014 by the Immigration and Population Ministry and has so far issued three intakes last year, according to Min Zaw.

According to the Immigration and Population Ministry, successful applicants are granted an initial five-year period of residency. Foreign professionals, technicians, investors who have resided in Burma for more than one year, family members of Burmese citizens and former citizens are eligible for consideration.

After the initial five-year period, former nationals can reapply for citizenship while foreigners can apply to extend their status. Applicants must pay a $500 non-refundable application fee, as well as an annual fee of $500 for former citizens and $1,000 for all others.

According to a report in state-owned newspaper The Mirror on Wednesday, a central implementation committee is scrutinizing the last applicants for the approval process and hopes to issue its fourth batch of successful applicants next week.

The report quoted the chairman of the central implementation committee, Union Minister Ko Ko of the Immigration and Population Ministry, who said the permanent residency system was intended for those who want to contribute to national development and Burma's reform process.

The scheme, however, has been criticized by many Burmese exiles because those who have sought political asylum or refugee status are ineligible and successful PR applicants are barred from taking part in any political activities in Burma.

Former exile Aung Myo Min, the executive director of Equality Myanmar who is not eligible to apply for PR because he was granted refugee status by the Czech Republic, told The Irrawaddy on Thursday that the government should welcome all former citizens and foreign professionals rather than limiting the applicants' political activities.

"When a country is in a reform process, it needs experts and professionals from every sector," he said.

"Banning successful applicants from taking part in political activities can become an obstacle for those who want to contribute to the country's reform process."

According to the 1982 Citizenship Law, dual citizenship is prohibited in Burma. Tens of thousands of Burmese exiles, who fled the country for various reasons under the former military regime, effectively lost their Burmese citizenship while living abroad after being granted refugee status, residency or citizenship in foreign countries.

The post Ranks of Burma's PR Holders Modest but Growing appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Military VP Revealed As Executive Trio Finalized

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 04:19 AM PST

The three presidential nominees, from left: Htin Kyaw, Myint Swe and Henry Van Thio. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)

RANGOON — A military candidate joins two National League for Democracy (NLD) nominees in deliberations next week for the top executive offices in Burma's new government.

The selection of a president and two vice presidents from among one military and two NLD picks will take place Monday in the Union Parliament; results are expected to be announced on Tuesday.

The sitting military lawmakers from both houses put forward former Rangoon Chief Minister Myint Swe—a Lt-Gen with a checkered past—for one of the vice presidential positions on Friday afternoon.

In Friday's parliamentary session, Htin Kyaw, an executive committee member of an Aung San Suu Kyi-led foundation, was voted in as the Lower House's NLD nominee for the post, and another NLD candidate, Henry Van Thio—an MP from Chin State—was selected by the Upper House.

Htin Kyaw, a close aide of Suu Kyi, garnered 274 votes against the Union Solidarity and Development Party's (USDP) Sai Mauk Kham, the current vice president, who collected 29 votes. A total of 317 lawmakers participated in Friday's voting session, with 14 votes invalidated.

In the Upper House, ethnic Chin lawmaker Henry Van Thio secured 148 votes, while former Upper House Speaker Khin Aung Myint, a sitting USDP parliamentarian, earned just 13. A total of 167 lawmakers attended Friday's voting session, with six votes invalidated.

Of both NLD candidates, Htin Kyaw is expected to become Burma's next president after the upcoming parliamentary vote.

Bertil Lintner, journalist and Burma expert, told The Irrawaddy that he wondered why the NLD had nominated Henry Van Thio for the vice presidency.

"As far as I know, he is a former army officer and was very close to Aung Thaung at the Ministry of Industry, and then made lots of money for himself," Lintner said of the Chin lawmaker, who is a retired Burma Army major and reportedly also managed a state-run tobacco processing plant. The late Aung Thaung was one of the wealthiest men in Burma and also a notorious USDP hardliner.

"The NLD has made some very strange choices when it comes to 'minority representatives,'" Lintner continued, pointing out the Lower House deputy speaker appointment of T Hkun Myat, an ethnic Kachin lawmaker with ties to a militia that has been accused of involvement in the drug trade.

Additional reporting by San Yamin Aung.

The post Military VP Revealed As Executive Trio Finalized appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

The Lady’s Man

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 03:14 AM PST

Htin Kyaw, revealed Thursday as the National League for Democracy (NLD) nominee likely to be Burma's next president, is pictured here standing beside party chairwoman Aung San Suu Kyi on Nov. 12, 2011, shortly after she was released from house arrest in Rangoon. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)

Htin Kyaw, soft-spoken and often sporting a white traditional Burmese jacket, can be seen over the years in a smattering of photographs for which he, inevitably, was never the lens' focus. But there he is, nonetheless, a regular presence in public appearances made by Burma's charismatic pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi since her release from house arrest in November 2011.

Now, barring an unforeseen turn, Htin Kyaw will become Burma's first civilian president in a half-century. The good news for Burmese people is this: Like his preferred white jacket, Htin Kyaw is known to be clean, with no trace of corruption tainting his respected if little-known résumé.

Few outside the country would have known the name before Thursday, when he was put forward by Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy as the party's presumptive presidential pick. Asked to bet on a class of foreigners most likely to know the man, the money would be on diplomats, who would have known Htin Kyaw as a close confidante of Suu Kyi who kept lines of communication between her and the outside world open during her years under house arrest.

He might be an understated entity, but a political novice Htin Kyaw is not.

His late father, U Wun (better known as Min Thu Wun), was a highly respected national scholar and poet of mixed ethnic Mon and Burman stock. He was one of the pioneering writers of a literary movement in Burma known as Khit San, penning short stories and poems in the early 1900s.

U Wun attended Oxford University, where he received a bachelor's degree in literature in 1939 before returning to teach at the famous Rangoon University. There he met Suu Kyi's father, Aung San, then a student with a rebellious streak. Decades later, in 1988, U Wun joined Suu Kyi's party and won a seat in the election that followed two years later. Though he was a respected literary light, the military regime banned his publications and he died in 2004, nearly a decade before Burma's democratic spring.

It was this family connection that brought Suu Kyi and Htin Kyaw, who is one year her junior, together as high school classmates in Rangoon, the beginning of a decades-long friendship that has improbably led him to the verge of Burma's presidency.

Like his father before him, Htin Kyaw also writes articles in Burmese-language magazines under the pen name Talaban, a famous Mon warrior who fought against Burmese King Alaunghpaya, founder of the Konbaung Dynasty.

His late father-in-law, U Lwin, was one of the cofounders of the NLD. A former colonel who joined the Burma Independence Army in 1942 and then trained in Britain after the country regained its independence, U Lwin served as deputy prime minister under the Ne Win government but resigned in 1980. Like U Wun, U Lwin ties his NLD loyalty to the year of its founding in 1988.

Htin Kyaw's wife Su Su Lwin is also a loyal Suu Kyi supporter. Under the military regime, she worked as an NGO worker to provide education under tight surveillance. Today she is a lawmaker in Parliament and was recently appointed chairperson of the Lower House's International Relations Committee.

Over the years, the 69-year-old Htin Kyaw has clearly become a close confident of Suu Kyi. Today he serves as an executive committee member of the Daw Khin Kyi Foundation, a charitable organization named after the late mother of Suu Kyi, who is its chairwoman.

Unlike many hardcore political activists and NLD politicians, he did not spend many years in prison, but did spend some months in detention due to a political crackdown in the late 1990s, when he accompanied Suu Kyi's aborted up-country trip. Some former political prisoner who shared a tiny room in Rangoon's infamous Insein Prison recalled him as gentle and kind to other prisoners.

Htin Kyaw has clearly been deemed by Suu Kyi to be the best-qualified person to "lead" the nation and new government in light of the fact that she cannot become president—loyal, disciplined, organized and able to reach out to domestic and international communities with equal ease.

Aside from his rock-solid family background, there is an impressive education pedigree: He attended the University of London and has also studied in the United States and Japan, bringing English fluency to Burma's highest civilian office. That will be important in international exposure going forward, as he will be expected to articulate Suu Kyi's vision and wishes in a proxy arrangement that will be awkward, if nothing else.

Since Suu Kyi came to accept that she would not, at least for now, be Burma's president, several candidates undoubtedly sprung to mind, with Htin Kyaw an obvious contender for the shortlist. She knows that as a close confidante, he will be loyal and faithful to her, but he also needs to build trust and confidence with Burma's military leadership. A fire-breathing dragon for the pro-democracy cause would be likely to chafe the generals, and consequently would not have appealed to Suu Kyi.

In domestic politics, Htin Kyaw will have to work, with Suu Kyi by his side, to address several thorny issues facing the country, including achieving peace with Burma's ethnic armed groups, spurring economic development and building trust with generals who are still reserved one-quarter of the seats in Parliament, three ministerial portfolios and more, making a near-term exit of the brass from politics unlikely.

Htin Kyaw's absolute loyalty lies in Suu Kyi, but his duty is to move the country forward. Her followers and the public seem ready to support him and a government that he will ostensibly lead, even though he is not as well-known as heroic second-fiddles in Burma's democracy movement like Min Ko Naing, Tin Oo or the late Win Tin.

Indeed, the people have yet to see how Htin Kyaw handles a difficult political posting, balancing competing interests that will inevitably give rise to tension with the military. On Friday, the public learned that even within his cabinet there will be personnel challenges: One of his vice presidents, the military announced, will be Myint Swe, the current chief minister of Rangoon Division, whose past does not bode well for future prospects.

Burma's presumptive, untested leader will soon show the world whether he has the political skills, maneuverability and diplomacy to handle the burden of Burma's proxy presidency.

The post The Lady's Man appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Over 500 IDPs Flee Latest Shan State Hostilities

Posted: 10 Mar 2016 09:18 PM PST

Civilians displaced by fighting this week arrive to Nam Pa Kar village in Kutkai Township, northern Shan State. (Photo: Ta'ang Students and Youth Organization)

RANGOON — Hundreds displaced by fighting in northern Shan State arrived this week to Nam Pa Kar village in Kutkai Township amid ongoing regional hostilities between the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Burma Army, according to a Lashio-based group providing food supplies to the affected.

The internally displaced persons (IDPs) are ethnic Palaung from Ngegge village, also in Kutkai Township, where fighting that began Tuesday forced them to flee their homes.

"They fled on March 8 from their village, and arrived in Kutkai yesterday," De De Poe Jaing, joint general secretary No. 2 of the Ta'ang Women's Organization (TWO), said on Thursday, estimating that more than 500 people had fled to Nam Pa Kar, where they are sheltering at an events hall.

"There have been some local charitable groups, including our organization, providing them food. They will be able to have food for some days, but this [adequate food provision] may become a problem if they have to stay a long time," said De De Poe Jaing.

Another civil society group, the Ta'ang Students and Youth Organization (TSYO), has sent some of its members to Mong Yu village, where some civilians are believed to have been pinned down by recent hostilities.

"We do not know yet how many villagers we're hosting in the village. Some of our people went to help them today to bring out those [Mong Yu] villagers from the conflict-affected village," De De Poe Jaing said.

The TNLA has said thousands of Burma Army troops have been deployed to the conflict zone, a territory that spans several townships in northern Shan State including Kyaukme, Kutkai, Namtu, Manton, Namhsan and Mongmit.

Intense fighting continued on Thursday in Kyaukme and Mangton townships, where the TNLA claimed a government offensive included two helicopter gunships in the village of Kyauk Phyu, part of Kyaukme Township.

Locals from the villages of Kyauk Phyu and Pan Loi have also been displaced in recent days, with those affected taking refuge in Kyaukme town.

The post Over 500 IDPs Flee Latest Shan State Hostilities appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Myitsone: The Incoming NLD Govt’s First Big Test

Posted: 10 Mar 2016 04:52 PM PST

Burmese nationals living in Malaysia display placards in protest against the Myitsone dam project, outside the Burmese Embassy in Kuala Lumpur on Sept. 22, 2011. (Photo: Reuters)

As the inauguration date of the new Myanmar government draws close, one of the most urgent questions that the incoming National League for Democracy (NLD) administration will have to answer concerns the fate of the suspended Myitsone dam project in Kachin State. The issue touches upon some of the most sensitive nerves in Myanmar's domestic politics and has major implications for the country's delicate relations with its big neighbor to the north China.

While the temptation might be strong to postpone the decision until much later, a significant delay in fact will prove costly, both politically and economically. Its handling of the Myitsone issue will be one of the first major tests for the NLD government and its leader Aung San Suu Kyi. This week, the Chinese foreign minister expressed confidence that the Myitsone impasse would be resolved "appropriately," according to Reuters, which reported that Beijing also had "full faith in Myanmar's future" under the leadership of Suu Kyi's NLD.

The truth is this: The Myitsone dam conundrum has dragged on for too long. Since its suspension by outgoing President Thein Sein in September 2011, the issue has remained a sore spot for Burmese society and Sino-Myanmar relations. The Myanmar general public continues to hold a profound grudge about the project as a symbol of Chinese exploitation during the military government that ceded power five years ago. Many have remained on alert, vigilantly opposed to any potential push for the project's resumption.

China, on the other hand, feels a victim of Myanmar's political transition and grieves for the suspension of such a large investment project. Indeed, Myitsone has become the negative example for the Chinese foreign investment community and is often singled out in discussions about the ambitious, Beijing-led "One Belt, One Road" initiative as an expensive lesson learned.

The Myitsone dam has festered as an ulcer for the bilateral relationship between China and Myanmar that can neither be forgotten nor ignored. The key reason is that Thein Sein only suspended, rather than completely canceled, the project. While his decision was perhaps motivated by concern over China's feelings and reaction, it also left the door open for China to hold out hope for its resumption one day.

The urgency of the issue for Suu Kyi and the NLD government precisely lies in the timing. Because Thein Sein only sanctioned the suspension of the Myitsone dam during his term, the deferral logically would expire on the last day of his term at the end of March. Beyond that date, the status of the project becomes a question. Without the new government's decision and/or a negotiated resolution, China will have more ground to push for the project's resumption, or at minimum raise the issue.

Watchers who know Myanmar well understand that the Myitsone dam has become so toxic in the Southeast Asian nation that its resumption at this stage is rather unthinkable. Even with major revisions to its design and construction, a restart would provoke tremendous nationalistic backlash among the Myanmar people, raising questions about the nascent NLD government's credibility, capability, or even more problematically, its patriotism and political standing.

The Chinese investor, China Power Investment (now renamed State Power Investment), has been actively lobbying for Myitsone's resumption, citing Myanmar's dire electrification needs and "experts' opinions" on the soundness of the project. However, given the emotional and political factors involved, as well as the debatable cost-benefit analysis associated with the dam, any normal, sensible conversations about the pros and cons of the project itself can be safely ruled out. In fact, even if it is offered the opportunity to have a public debate about the project's merits, China most likely will reject the invitation for fear of public humiliation.

The Myanmar people are watching to see whether Suu Kyi and the NLD government will "stand up" to China, especially on such a symbolic and toxic issue. Under the circumstances, if the new government is to make a decision in favor of resumption, it will cost dearly in terms of public opinion and domestic political capital.

Even if they understand the risks and proceed with scrapping Myitsone, Suu Kyi and her government have to also understand that time is not necessarily on their side. In 2015, the Thein Sein government and CPI engaged in conversations about the abandonment scenario and dissolution of the agreement. The key question is not about whether it will happen but about the financial consequences.

Specifically, it is about how much investment has been disbursed and how much compensation the Myanmar government will have to pay for revoking a legitimate commercial contract. The Thein Sein government is believed to have committed to a compensation scheme that would see the amount of money disbursed on the project paid back, with interest. That would presumably mean that for the Chinese, there is no urgency to push for anything—the interest on the disbursed capital will simply keep accruing as long as the Myanmar government does not make a final call.

If Myitsone's ultimate fate is the dustbin, it will be best for Suu Kyi to make this important decision sooner rather than later. China is more than eager to establish a good relationship with the NLD chairwoman at the beginning of her government's term and cancelling the project now runs the least risk of retaliation from China. On the other hand, if Suu Kyi and the NLD government decide the drag the issue further into the future, fearing the prospect of angering China early in its term, the inescapable Myitsone problem will continue to haunt them and could potentially bring more damage when the government eventually decides to give it up.

Making the decision early is not the same as treating the issue lightly. If Suu Kyi and the NLD government are to cancel the project, delicate handling and diplomacy will be in order. They will need to present convincing evidence in terms of the project's negative economic, environmental and social impacts to support their decision. They will need to convey the message to China that the decision is merit-based and that Myitsone is a problem they inherited from the Thein Sein government. Most importantly, they will need to clearly state that their decision is based on principle matters, but does not in any way indicate an overarching anti-China policy course into the future.

Suu Kyi's government will face many competing priorities—from national reconciliation to spurring economic development; from the Rakhine issue to civilian-military relations, everything will seemingly demand immediate attention. While the Myitsone project might easily be put on the backburner, such a decision would be unwise. After all, not many issues are so clearly pegged to the calendar as Myitsone is; nor do other concerns continue to generate a potentially astronomical interest payment with each passing day.

As the incoming government tries to start with a clean slate on China and put its relationship with the Asian giant on the right path, the NLD has to get Myitsone right.

Yun Sun is a senior associate with the East Asia program at the Henry L. Stimson Center and a non-resident fellow with the Brookings Institution.

The post Myitsone: The Incoming NLD Govt's First Big Test appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

Who Will Be The Next To Take Burma’s Top Job?

Posted: 10 Mar 2016 04:10 PM PST

President Thein Sein meets with foreign envoys at the President's Office in Naypyidaw in April 2012. (Photo: Soe Zeya Tun / Reuters)

Since the country gained independence in 1948, Burma has seen eight presidents in 68 years under three constitutions. With presidential candidates put forward by Parliament on Thursday, National League for Democracy (NLD) nominee Htin Kyaw looks likely to become Burma's ninth president; the power transfer is scheduled for March 31. The Irrawaddy reviews the personalities who previously held the position in Burma's past governments.

Sao Shwe Thaik, the first president of Burma. (Photo: Public Domain)

Sao Shwe Thaik (1894 –1962)

Sao Shwe Thaik, an ethnic Shan, was the first president of the Union of Burma and the last Saopha—or hereditary prince—of Shan State's Yawnghwe. Sao Shwe Thaik served as the head of state alongside Prime Minister U Nu, from the date of Burma's independence on Jan. 4, 1948 until March 12, 1952. Before he was President, Sao Shwe Thaik had served in the British army. When Gen Ne Win took power in a military coup in 1962, the Shan prince was arrested. He later died in prison.

Dr. Ba U, the second president of Burma. (Photo: Public Domain)

Dr. Ba U (1887 – 1963)

Dr. Ba U was the second president of Union of Burma and an ethnic Bamar. Ba Oo graduated with a law degree from the University of Cambridge and served as the chief justice of the Supreme Court of Burma before he succeeded Sao Shwe Thaik as the President in March 1952. He served in the position for five years, until March of 1957.

Mahn Win Maung, Burma's third president. (Photo: Public Domain)

Mahn Win Maung (1916 – 1989)

Mahn Win Maung was an ethnic Karen Buddhist and the third president of Union of Burma. As a former government minister, he was selected by Prime Minister U Nu for the Presidency and succeeded Dr. Ba U in March 1957. Mahn Win Maung served until March 1962 when General Ne Win ousted U Nu's government in a military coup. He was then imprisoned for five years.

General Ne Win, military general and the fourth president of Burma. (Photo: Public Domain)

General Ne Win (1910 – 2002)

Born as Shu Maung, Ne Win briefly took control of Burma in 1958, during a period of military rule known as the Caretaker Government. He came to power more permanently in March 1962 through a military coup, and would act as Burma's head of state for nearly 20 years, until Nov. 9, 1981. A military commander of Bamar-Chinese descent, he founded the Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP) in 1962 and served as its chairman until 1988, resigning during the student uprisings that year. Throughout this period, the BSPP was the only legal political party in the country, and through it, Ne Win championed the nationalization of business and ushered in a period of intense xenophobia. Ne Win remained the commander-in-chief of the military for a total of 26 years. He later died while under house arrest in Rangoon.

General San Yu, Burma's the fifth president. (Photo: Public Domain)

General San Yu (1918 –1996)

Gen San Yu, also of Bamar-Chinese descent, was the commander-in-chief of Burma's military and the fifth president of the country, which was then known as the Socialist Republic of the Union of Burma. He served from November 1981 until July 1988, a time during which Ne Win was still the BSPP party chairman. Before San Yu became president, he played an integral role in drafting the military's 1974 Constitution.

Brig-Gen Sein Lwin, the "Butcher of Rangoon," and the sixth president of Burma. (Photo: Public Domain)

Brig-Gen Sein Lwin (1923 –2004)

Sein Lwin, an ethnic Bamar, served as the sixth president of Burma for only 17 days, during a period of intense pro-democracy uprisings. During his rule—from July 27 to August 12, 1988—he was better known as the "Butcher of Rangoon" for giving the order on Aug 10, 1988 to open fire on student demonstrators near Rangoon General Hospital. The protests continued until Sein Lwin stepped down. He was reportedly taken care of by the government, and provided with cars, food and support for many years that followed.

Dr. Maung Maung, the seventh president of Burma. (Photo: Public Domain)

Dr. Maung Maung (1925 –1994)

Dr. Maung Maung, an ethnic Bamar, was the seventh president of the Union of Burma and a well-known writer. He studied law in Netherland's Utrecht University and at Yale University in the US, and served as the Chief Justice under Ne Win's BSPP government. He served as the president for only one month—from August 19, 1988 until September 18, 1988, before being ousted in a military coup led by Gen Saw Maung. Burma's government would undergo name changes, from the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) to the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), led by military men like Snr-Gen Than Shwe. The country would not have another leader with the "President" title until 2011.

Thein Sein, the eighth and outgoing president of Burma. (Photo: President's Office)

Thein Sein (1945 – )

Selected by the Union Parliament for the presidency in March 2011, the general-turned-politician became Burma's eighth president after an election which was boycotted by Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) and described by Western countries as "neither free nor fair." Thein Sein served as the prime minister in the previous military regime from 2007 to 2011. In 2010, he retired from the military, where he had attained the rank of Brig-Gen, and instead led the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). His tenure as the country's president ends on March 30, 2016.

The post Who Will Be The Next To Take Burma's Top Job? appeared first on The Irrawaddy.

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NLD candidates win presidential nominee vote

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 02:34 AM PST

U Htin Kyaw and Henry Van Thoi have been confirmed as nominees for the presidency, both easily defeating their Union Solidarity and Development Party rivals in parliamentary voting this morning.